"Today's generation" of starting pitchers

[Cowtipper]

Which of "today's generation" of starting pitchers do you think will make it to the Hall of Fame? These are the criteria I used to determine who's made the poll and who didn't:

100+ wins
Career started in 1998 or later
Or is now 33 years of age or younger
.500 WP or better

Here are the ages, records and ERAs of each:

Chris Carpenter: 33, 100-70, 4.08
Kelvim Escobar: 31, 101-90, 4.15
Mark Mulder: 30, 103-60, 4.18
Jon Garland: 28, 103-89, 4.40
Johan Santana: 29, 104-51, 3.16
Russ Ortiz: 34, 110-82, 4.42
C.C. Sabathia: 27, 114-71, 3.73
Freddy Garcia: 32, 117-76, 4.07
Mark Buehrle: 29, 118-85, 3.81
Barry Zito: 30, 120-91, 3.80
Matt Morris: 33, 121-92, 3.98
Roy Oswalt: 30, 123-62, 3.18
Javier Vazquez: 31, 125-123, 4.29
Roy Halladay: 31, 125-64, 3.52
Jeff Suppan: 33, 126-120, 4.61
Livan Hernandez: 33, 145-137, 4.35
Tim Hudson: 32, 146-77, 3.48

Career projections, using Bill James' favorite toy (assuming ERA stays relatively the same):

(W-L, K)

Chris Carpenter: 111-80, 1139
Kelvim Escobar: 140-113, 1694
Mark Mulder: 109-73, 900
Jon Garland: 199-165, 1530
Johan Santana: 206-117, 2963
Russ Ortiz: 113-91, 1186
C.C. Sabathia: 248-142, 3053
Freddy Garcia: 131-90, 1428
Mark Buehrle: 201-163, 1855
Barry Zito: 187-188, 2084
Matt Morris: 144-132, 1485
Roy Oswalt: 211-116, 2292
Javier Vazquez: 201-187, 3139
Roy Halladay: 223-117, 2222
Jeff Suppan: 178-166, 1713
Kevin Millwood: 186-160, 2230
Livan Hernandez: 204-189, 2014
Tim Hudson: 222-128, 2006

[Brad Harris]

Only six - Buehrle, Halladay, Hudson, Oswalt, Sabathia and Santana - bear watching. At this point only Santana is a reasonable bet to gain election.

[PVNICK]

There's very few that even look on track. Barring something drastic Santana is in. The only others I gave any thought to were Oswalt, Halladay and Sabathia. Oswalt is having an off year which may be the start of a decline (or not). Sabathia is such a big man is am not certain he will last long enough at a high level.

[STLCards2]

I feel pretty good about Santana, Oswalt, and Halladay.

Hudson can break either way depending on how he pitches/stays healthy the next few years. His prime appears over, and injuries are mounting. that favorable ERA+ and winning% is dropping every season.

Buehrle has a chance, but needs to have a few great seasons mixed in with his plethera of good ones, since he won't get the counting stats that other similar pitchers who are in the HOF had (Wynn, Sutton)

Sabbathia has a chance too.

Why aren't Webb, Zambrano, and Peavy on this list. They have pitched only a year or so less than Oswat and Santana.

Webb is on the fast track, despite starting a little older than other guys.

Zambrano and Peavy are decent bets too.

I would say...

Yes
Santana

Probably
Oswalt

50/50
Halladay
Zambrano
Peavy
Sabbathia

Probably not, but worth a look
Husdon
Buehrle

I like to see 6-7 years before I even try to start guessing. Guys like Linecum, F. Hernandez and Hamels are too young to even begin guessing.

[jjpm74]

At this point in their careers, none of them, though Halladay and Santana have a reasonable chance.

[nerfan]

Chris Carpenter, 33, 100-70, 4.08

Injury problems, only 1500 innings up to this point, and only 3 seasons of more than 30 starts. Very good for two years but I don't see him making it at all. Winning 15 games a year (assuming his ERA+ stays around 110-120) for the next six years would put him at 190 wins at 39, and considering his extensive injury history that's not likely to happen.

Chance: 2%.

Kelvim Escobar, 31, 101-90, 4.15

Escobar is a funny case, as he's relieved in 209 games and will likely get very very little credit for that. He's only become a effective starter since joining the Angels, and since he's out for the season, he's gonna have to be very effective at 33+ to make the Hall of Fame. Even if he is, voters will not think of him as highly dominant over the course of his career.

Chance: 4%.

Mark Mulder, 30, 103-60, 4.18

Mulder has pitched all of 106 innings the past three years (2006-2008), gone 6-10 over that period, and has posted ERA+'s of 62, 36, and 39. With 15+ wins for 5 straight seasons, he appeared to be on the fast track, but has since faded due to a multitude of injuries.

Chance: 4%.

Jon Garland, 28, 103-89, 4.40

Jon Garland is exactly the kind of pitcher that voters will look at and vote for. He's a workhorse (at least 200 IP for the last 4 seasons), wins a lot (10 in every season since 2002) and posts reasonable ERA's. They'll hail him as a unhailed pitcher who managed to win 250 games despite never being looked at as an ace. At only 28, he's got a chance to get to 250 wins.

Chance: 15%.

Johan Santana, 29, 104-51, 3.16

What can be said about Santana that hasn't already been said? Despite having the fourth best ERA in the league and the sixth best ERA+ (not to mention being in the league leaders in quality starts) this year, he's won only 11 times. If the bullpen and hitters keep faltering for him like they have, he might not win as many games as you might think, but he's going to be a Hall of Famer unless injuries derail him completely.

Chance: 85%.

Russ Ortiz, 34, 110-82, 4.42

Russ Ortiz? Russ Ortiz?

Chance: 0.25%.

C.C. Sabathia, 27, 114-71, 3.73

CC has worked a lot of innings at a tender age. He's not had any serious injury problems to date, but let's face it: the guy is fat. (It's a misconception, however, that he's the heaviest in baseball, Dmitri Young is 280-300 pounds at only 6' 1''). His heft might be an issue going forward.

Chance: 35%.

Freddy Garcia, 32, 117-76, 4.07

Nope.

Chance: 1%.

Mark Buehrle, 29, 118-85, 3.81

Buehrle has won without great peripherals, and this trend will reverse itself as his strikeout rate continues to decline.

Barry Zito, 30, 120-91, 3.80
Matt Morris, 33, 121-92, 3.98
Roy Oswalt, 30, 123-62, 3.18
Javier Vazquez, 31, 125-123, 4.29
Roy Halladay, 31, 125-64, 3.52
Jeff Suppan, 33, 126-120, 4.61
Livan Hernandez, 33, 145-137, 4.35
Tim Hudson, 32, 146-77, 3.48

[Cowtipper]

Why aren't Webb, Zambrano, and Peavy on this list. They have pitched only a year or so less than Oswat and Santana.
100+ wins
Career started in 1998 or later
Or is now 33 years of age or younger
.500 WP or better

They match all the criteria except the first one.

[STLCards2]

100+ wins
Career started in 1998 or later
Or is now 33 years of age or younger
.500 WP or better

They match all the criteria except the first one.

Sorry, didn't read that part.:)

[STLCards2]

At this point in their careers, none of them, though Halladay and Santana have a reasonable chance.

You don't think Roy Oswalt has a reasonable chance?

[jjpm74]

You don't think Roy Oswalt has a reasonable chance?

Possibly, though in the case of all of the above mentioned pitchers, we're just guestimating at this point. None of them have done enough to make the HOF if they never pitched again.

[BlueBlood]

Yes

Santana

75%

Halladay
Hudson
Sabathia

50%
Oswalt

Voted for the first four, thought about Oswalt but didn't given his 2008 performance.

[Seattle1]

Don't forget about Felix Hernandez.

[Paul Wendt]

Those are the five with good chances.

The trade may cost Sabathia a Cy Young Award that would be very nice to have on his resume. (Dale Murphy won back-to-back MVP Awards and he isn't getting any love from the writer-voters today. But that's unusual.) He does separately lead both leagues in shutouts but 8 cg, 4 sho would be a lot more impressive at a glance.

Winning round one of the playoffs frequently makes the difference between one and three October starts by an ace pitcher. In three starts it isn't unusual to get two good wins, which would balance the two bad defeats of 2007.

[henrich]

There's very few that even look on track. Barring something drastic Santana is in. The only others I gave any thought to were Oswalt, Halladay and Sabathia. Oswalt is having an off year which may be the start of a decline (or not). Sabathia is such a big man is am not certain he will last long enough at a high level.

Oswalt had an injury that I think he's gotten over. His last start, he looked like his old stuff. Stay tuned to see if it continues. He just didn't appear to be finishing his pitches earlier in the season. I think he'll pick up where he left off prior to the injury.

I liked Oswalt, Sabathia and Santana for decent chances at the Hall.

I also liked the post about Webb and Zambrano, those guys are fantastic (realizing they didn't qualify of course)

[rockin500]

You don't think Roy Oswalt has a reasonable chance?
he has that reasonable chance, but I dont know about his health. he certainly bears watching, but he certainly needs a better health than years like this.

I think of the ones asked about only halladay, oswalt and santana really bear watching

[STLCards2]

he has that reasonable chance, but I dont know about his health. he certainly bears watching, but he certainly needs a better health than years like this.

I think of the ones asked about only halladay, oswalt and santana really bear watching

Despite being in the league 3 years fewer than Halladay, Oswalt has pitched fewer than 200 inning less. Halladay is the one with more injuries than Oswalt. Roy had a minor thing this year, but no big deal.

My point is: the only reason people are putting Halladay ahead of Oswalt right now is because Oswalt is having a mediocre year. Depsite that, he is like I said, only 190 IP behind Halladay despite palying 3 fewer seasons, and has a 137 - 131 ERA+ advantage.

People are so reactionary - one mediocre year (even though I bet he is about 14-9 with 200 IP and a 120 ERA+ by the end of the season) and all of a sudden, Oswalt is out of people's minds, but ignore the multiple injuries that Halladay has had.

I see very little distinguishing the two men's careers so far. At least not enough to say one is very likely and the other not very likely for the HOF.

[Brad Harris]

Don't forget about Felix Hernandez.

Waaaay too early. I'd have put Scott Kazmir in here before him.

[THE OX]

Not to bad-mouth any of the individual pitchers, but this sounds like a potential group for the "Hall of the Halfway Decent" to me.

I mean, decisions in maybe 60% of their starts, an average of about 6 innings per start, ERAs slightly below 4.00, and maybe 200 career wins coupled with 20-30 career Complete Games and maybe 10 career shutouts. And very rare (if any) 20-win seasons!

This kind of career totals and individual season accomplishments wouldn't make a pimple on the buttocks of any of the REAL HOF pichers.....

The 5-day rotation, pitch counts, extremely rare Complete Games, and the absurd ways pitchers are used nowadays makes any sort of objective "HOF qualifications" an embarrassment by comparison with those of the pitchers already enshrined.

For position players, the plateaus of 3000 hits, 500 home runs, and similar achievements is still possible, but (IMO) 1990s-and-later pitchers are going to have stats that are a joke compared with their predecessors.

[Paul Wendt]

Quoting #1
Career projections, using Bill James' favorite toy (assuming ERA stays relatively the same):

(W-L, K)

. . . [list deleted]
Tim Hudson: 222-128, 2006
So "Bill James" makes these point estimates today 2008-08-20, "assuming ERA stays relatively the same":

Career Wins above .500 (predicted)
+106 Sabathia
+106 Halladay
+105 Oswalt
+ 94 Hudson
+ 89 Santana
+ 41 Garcia (14-14 in the rest of his mlb career, but the tool must be a shot in the dark here)

Any one of the first five who approaches that estimate will waltz to Cooperstown with Albert Pujols.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yes

Santana

75%

Halladay
Hudson
Sabathia

50%
Oswalt

Voted for the first four, thought about Oswalt but didn't given his 2008 performance.


Oswalt has done some of the things typical of a HOFer that these other guys haven't. Specifically, winning 20 games twice, and being extremelly consistent.

Oswalt has been unlucky in Cy Young Award voting. He had his best years in Houston during the time Roger Clemens was a big deal in Houston. But his two 20 win seasons are a permanent part of his record, and it will stand out.

Owalt's career ERA is over a run better than league. He's having an off year in ERA this year, but he's CONSISTENTLY been a run lower than league in ERA. In this respect, he's been more impressive than many of the other pitchers on the list. I consider Oswalt to be the most underrated and overlooked.

[JDD]

Those career ERAs are hurting my eyes, please take them away. :disbelief: