Current Third Basemen

[OleMissCub]

Obviously Chipper Jones....but what about the others....

I'm particularly looking at Troy Glaus, Aramis Ramirez, and Adrian Beltre as possible good candidates.

Beltre (29) - 1542 games, 236 HR, 842 RBI, 1545 hits, .270/.326/.457
Ramirez (30) - 1290 games, 241 HR, 845 RBI, 1361 hits, .283/.340/.499
Glaus (32) - 1361 games, 298 HR, 857 RBI, 1238 hits, .255/.359/.499

I think Rolen is already on the decline in his career and at 33, that's not a good thing because his counting stats won't be where voters would want them to be.

A few years ago I would have included Chavez, but I think he's pretty much toast.

[BlueBlood]

Beltre would need some massive career resurgence in his second half which I don't see happening.

[henrich]

Obviously Chipper Jones....but what about the others....

I'm particularly looking at Troy Glaus, Aramis Ramirez, and Adrian Beltre as possible good candidates.

Beltre (29) - 1542 games, 236 HR, 842 RBI, 1545 hits, .270/.326/.457
Ramirez (30) - 1290 games, 241 HR, 845 RBI, 1361 hits, .283/.340/.499
Glaus (32) - 1361 games, 298 HR, 857 RBI, 1238 hits, .255/.359/.499

I think Rolen is already on the decline in his career and at 33, that's not a good thing because his counting stats won't be where voters would want them to be.

A few years ago I would have included Chavez, but I think he's pretty much toast.

I think it's just Chipper, but Ramirez, Aramis has the best shot in my mind. Rolen's shoulder is too much anymore, and Glaus has had his share of injuries.

Beltre would be 2nd for me on this list.

Realistically I only see Chipper making it though.

[philkid3]

I really can see Beltre putting together a Hall of Fame career because he's so young. He's still a good player (underrated I think), has been a GREAT fielder (not Rolen, but that's not saying much) and has already had some good seasons. He could make his way in to Cooperstown by making up for a lack of great peak seasons with a long career of good seasons, elite fielding and high counting stats.

[partydude1377]

I don't see Beltre making a case really. The guy really only had one good year. Since, and before then, he hasn't posted a .300 ba, a .400 obp(ever), or a .500slugging. Also, excluding that great 2004 season, he hasn't scored over 88 runs, hasn't driven over 100 runs, hasn't had over 170 hits, and hasn't hit over 26 homeruns.

I just don't see him making it.

[BlueBlood]

Beltre's case is the same as Johnny Damon's. They've got to get to 3,000 hits. Beltre will be about 1400 away at the end of 2008 which isn't bad considering he's only 29. 1400/11 = 127 per season from now until he's age 40. He's averaged 162 hits a season throughout his career. His Range Factor at 3B is more than good enough to keep him around as long as he's hitting at least slightly under-average which shouldn't be a problem considering an OPS+ of 88 was his low which isn't too bad for a lot of team's starting 3B.

The real question is whether or not the Hall of Fame will enshrine two non shortstops (Damon/Beltre) with offensive productivity levels less than the league average. 3,000 hits may soon become an inadequate benchmark.

[leecemark]

--Safeco is a very bad fit for Beltre. Death to RH power/pull hitters. If his next park (2009 is his last year on the Mariners contract) is a better fit he could have a nice early 30s run of 30 (or even 40) HR seasons. If you've got a very good defensive 3B with 2,500 hits and 400 HR he has to be a candidate. 3,000 or 500 definately gets him in. He sure doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer at this point though. Only one season on his resume that looks like a Cooperstown quality year.
--Chipper is the only active thirdbaseman I see as particularly close to the Hall tight now (and he has already done enough IMO).

[BlueBlood]

--Chipper is the only active thirdbaseman I see as particularly close to the Hall tight now (and he has already done enough IMO).

There's a flaw in that statement due to a loophole but I'm sure it's easy to figure out. Hint, he's definitely not the *only* active thirdbaseman everyone here deems Hall worthy. ;)

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think it's just Chipper, but Ramirez, Aramis has the best shot in my mind. Rolen's shoulder is too much anymore, and Glaus has had his share of injuries.

Beltre would be 2nd for me on this list.

Realistically I only see Chipper making it though.

Aramis Ramirez is helping himself a lot this year. He's spiked in patience at the plate, which is an indicator that his career will take on some staying power it didn't have before. Even more importantly, he's having big years with a WINNING team, and he's perceived as a guy that is helping the Cubs win.

I don't know how long he'll last. He's not likely to reach 500 HRs, but he might well make it to 400 HRs, and coupled with a career at third base (if he stays at the position) he will be a contender for a slot.

I view Beltre as a non-candidate at this point. He's squandered his early start with an astonishing lack of growth, and his lack of progress makes me wonder if he didn't lie about his age and is really 2-3 years older than his stated age. Even if his stated age is correct (he's 29), he'd have to be a perennial Gold Glover from here on out in order to even be thought of as a HOFer. He's a career .270 hitter, so I don't see him as a 3,000 hit guy. He'd need 400 HRs and a string of Gold Gloves to make the HOF, and I don't see him as likely to get there.

[leecemark]

There's a flaw in that statement due to a loophole but I'm sure it's easy to figure out. Hint, he's definitely not the *only* active thirdbaseman everyone here deems Hall worthy. ;)

--Ah yes, but that "other thrdbaseman" is still a SS for Hall /historical purposes in my mind.

[J W]

Another point about Beltre: has his age been verified yet? It seems every year, several latin players have their age advanced 2 or 3 years. It shows that he started his career at age 19 and I wonder about it. Ramirez supposedly started at age 20 and I wonder the same thing about him.

Top ten similar batters through age:

BELTRE (through age 28)
- Ron Santo
- Ruben Sierra
- Cal Ripken Jr *
- Eric Chavez
- Johnny Bench *
- Scott Rolen
- Ivan Rodriguez
- Andruw Jones
- Cesar Cedeno
- Vern Stephens

RAMIREZ (through age 29)
- Eric Chavez
- Scott Rolen
- Greg Luzinski
- Gary Sheffield
- Shawn Green
- Dale Murphy
- Rudy York
- Chipper Jones
- Carlos Beltran
- Bob Horner

GLAUS (through age 30)
- Mike Schmidt *
- Darryl Strawberry
- Reggie Jackson *
- Dean Palmer
- Matt Williams
- Scott Rolen
- Gary Sheffield
- Rocky Colavito
- Dale Murphy
- Roger Maris

[J W]

Ah, looks like Fuzzy Bear beat be to the point... but anyways, I agree with everyone else that Chipper Jones is the only 3B on track right now (and he's a HOFer if he retires today).

Troy Glaus still has a career OPS+ over 120 and is enjoying a good season with the Cardinals, so between the three, my vote is with him. Ramirez's increase in OBP started five seasons ago, and those last five seasons for Ramirez look awfully much like a peak.

Scott Rolen is still a HOFer to me, even though his career may for all intensive purposes be over. I don't think he'll get in, and there are always steroids to suspect. But every time I look at his numbers I find it difficult to compare to 3B on the outside looking in. He's better offensively than Graig Nettles and better defensively than Sal Bando.

In fact I just upped my ante and I see someone Rolen resembles -- he looks awfully like Ron Santo with less ABs:

Rolen (6744 PA) - .282 (.269) / .370 (.341) / .501 (.432) - 125 OPS+, 7 GGs
Santo (9396 PA) - .277 (.268) / .362 (.333) / .464 (.399) - 125 OPS+, 5 GGs

[dgarza]

Chipper Jones (and Alex Rodriguez) are the only shoo-ins.

Of the 3B who have a healthy amount of time under their belts, I think Glaus has pretty solid shot at the Hall.
Rolen and Ramirez have outside chances. But Rolen is on his way out.
Ramirez may have the better chance in the end, judging by the way his career has been impoving.
I think Beltre is out of the race at this point. He'd have to really surprise us from here on out, and that's unlikely.

There are a few others left who have alot going for them so far.
Although still young, Garrett Atkins and David Wright are definately on the right path. There's still alot of time for them to mess up, but they have great promise.

Evan Longoria has his entire career ahead of him.

[Brad Harris]

1. Chipper
------------- in
2. Rolen
------------- borderline candidate
3. Wright
4. Longoria
------------- HoF talent
5. Ramirez
6. Glaus
7. Beltre
------------- career path candidates
8. Chavez

[STLCards2]

In fact I just upped my ante and I see someone Rolen resembles -- he looks awfully like Ron Santo with less ABs:

Rolen (6744 PA) - .282 (.269) / .370 (.341) / .501 (.432) - 125 OPS+, 7 GGs
Santo (9396 PA) - .277 (.268) / .362 (.333) / .464 (.399) - 125 OPS+, 5 GGs

Unfortunately for Rolen, unless soime medical miracles happen, by the time he gets (if he gets) those extra 2,500 PAs, his OPS+ will be well below Santo's.

[OleMissCub]

Aramis Ramirez is helping himself a lot this year. He's spiked in patience at the plate, which is an indicator that his career will take on some staying power it didn't have before. Even more importantly, he's having big years with a WINNING team, and he's perceived as a guy that is helping the Cubs win.

I don't know how long he'll last. He's not likely to reach 500 HRs, but he might well make it to 400 HRs, and coupled with a career at third base (if he stays at the position) he will be a contender for a slot.

I also think Aramis' VAST improvement in defense shouldn't be understated. He's turned into one of the premier defensive 3rd basemen in the National League whilst a few years ago he was among the worst. In my estimation, Ramirez deserved the Gold Glove last year over Wright (who had twice as many errors as Ramirez)...but of course the media loves Wright [he made a barehanded catch once!!!!]. I'm not saying that Wright isn't an uber-fantastic player, but I think Ramirez or Chipper should have gotten the Gold Glove last year.

We all know that Gold Gloves are stupid, but we also probably all realize that being a "Gold Glover" is a sexy title that dumb writers want when they come around to HOF voting.

In my opinion, these are some keys that need to occur for Ramirez to be a truly serious candidate:

- get a Gold Glove
- participate in something *cough* substantial *cough* for the Chicago Cubs franchise....
- get to 400 HR & 2500 hits (5-7 more steady seasons should accomplish this)
- have 2 or 3 more top 10 MVP finishes

[OleMissCub]

Troy Glaus still has a career OPS+ over 120 and is enjoying a good season with the Cardinals, so between the three, my vote is with him. Ramirez's increase in OBP started five seasons ago, and those last five seasons for Ramirez look awfully much like a peak.


What stinks for Ramirez is that his OPS+ is only at 112. However, that is unfortunate for him because his OPS+ is brought down because of his first few seasons where he was playing only about 70 games a season while the Pirates were still trying to figure out what to do with him and had a crappy OPS+.

If you look only at the seasons where he was a full time starter, starting in 2001, his OPS+ is closer to 120.

[dgarza]

In my opinion, these are some keys that need to occur for Ramirez to be a truly serious candidate:

- participate in something *cough* substantial *cough* for the Chicago Cubs franchise....
...so you mean he needs to be traded... :hide:

[Brad Harris]

...so you mean he needs to be traded... :hide:

:rofl::rofl: :highfive: :rofl::rofl:

[KCGHOST]

I only like Chipper at this time. I suppose Aramis could somehow hit 500 HR's and get voted in but not by me. I think David Wright and Miguel Cabrera have better chances than anyone else on the list.

[leecemark]

--Isn't Cabrera done as a thirdbaseman now?

[dgarza]

--Isn't Cabrera done as a thirdbaseman now?
I think so. I certainly wasn't counting him as a "current" 3B, just as Rodriguez is not a "current" SS.
Is he staying at 1B in the foreseeable future?

He's on a solid HOF path no matter where he plays. I hope he doesn't bounce around the field too much from here on out.

[philkid3]

I'm not saying that Wright isn't an uber-fantastic player, but I think Ramirez or Chipper should have gotten the Gold Glove last year.
I think Pedro Feliz should have been the clear choice for GG last year at third (led in RZR and OOZ IIRC, and led all 3B with a +27 +/-).

By +/-, btw, Ramirez and Wright are pretty similar. A-Ram had a +15 (third in the NL, behind Feliz and Zimmerman) and Wright had a +13 (fifth in the NL behind Scott Rolen). Chipper, on the subject, I have trouble seeing a Gold Glove argument for (+3 is prett good, but not GG good, and no other measures that I remember had him as anything other than above average).

This, of course, is off-topic.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Chipper should be a first ballot guy, especially after the season he's having as we speak. I don't think any of those other three (Aramis, Beltre, Glaus) will get in. If I had to pick the one who had the best chance, I'd go with Beltre. His early start will make it possible for him to rack up some HOF level counting numbers, plus he also has shown that he can sustain a truly elite level of play for an entire season - his 2004 campaign is considerably better than any season Glaus or Aramis have had. If he can rise to anywhere near that level again for even just another season or two, it would greatly help his case. Glaus has great power, but it probably won't get him quite to 500 homers, and his batting average will likely fall below .250 before he retires. A World Series ring would certainly help Aramis, but he'd still be overshadowed by Soriano and Zambrano on his own team. What he really needs is a breakout MVP type season (.320, 40 homers, 120 RBIs, etc.) to get his name out there a little more.

[Cougar]

Glaus's most similar player at his current age (31) is Mike Schmidt. It's a high similarity score too (948).

OK -- eras are completely different, Schmidt led the league in HR several times and lived in the top ten; Glaus only once led the league and was only in the top 10 three other times. Glaus is an ordinary fielder (at best); Schmidt was one of the best ever.

But geez...Glaus is basically on a path to have Mike Schmidt's career numbers. That tells me something, even if he can't carry Schmidt's gym bag (and he can't).

[bluezebra]

Obviously Chipper Jones....but what about the others....

I'm particularly looking at Troy Glaus, Aramis Ramirez, and Adrian Beltre as possible good candidates.

Beltre (29) - 1542 games, 236 HR, 842 RBI, 1545 hits, .270/.326/.457
Ramirez (30) - 1290 games, 241 HR, 845 RBI, 1361 hits, .283/.340/.499
Glaus (32) - 1361 games, 298 HR, 857 RBI, 1238 hits, .255/.359/.499

I think Rolen is already on the decline in his career and at 33, that's not a good thing because his counting stats won't be where voters would want them to be.

A few years ago I would have included Chavez, but I think he's pretty much toast.

No third baseman should be elected to the HoF until the grossest of injustices is rectified, and Ron Santo is inducted.

Bob

[OleMissCub]

No third baseman should be elected to the HoF until the grossest of injustices is rectified, and Ron Santo is inducted.

Bob

ZERO argument here. The fact that Santo isn't in the HOF is an OUTRAGE.

[dgarza]

No third baseman should be elected to the HoF until the grossest of injustices is rectified, and Ron Santo is inducted.

Even thirdbasemen who are better than Santo?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

ZERO argument here. The fact that Santo isn't in the HOF is an OUTRAGE.

This is what I don't get. Don't all living HoFers get a vote for Veteran's Committee HoF candidates? Aren't a good portion of these living HoFers former contemporary players of Ron Santo? Was Santo not well liked when he was active? I don't know much about about Santo but I've never read anywhere that he wasn't liked. If the voters are not voting for Santo the question is why are they not voting for him?

[Paul Wendt]

Suppose every one of Ron Santo's true colleagues voted for him. What share of the voters would that be? He would still need support from others.

Playing 1937-1951, Bobby Doerr was not contemporary.
Ten years later, Yogi Berra was not contemporary.
Ten years later, Luis Aparicio was contemporary but he preceded Santo in Chicago.
Ten years later, Jim Palmer overlapped with Santo.
At the same time, manager Earl Weaver overlapped with Santo.
Ten years later, Dennis Eckersley was not contemporary.
Ten years later, Kirby Puckett was not contemporary.

In order to make another point at the same time, all seven of these Hall of Famers worked wholly or almost wholly in the American League.

NOTES
Offhand I didn't think of a general manager.
In the past the honored writers and broadcasters were voting too but I have not listed any of them. Now beginning 2009 the vote is limited to HOF members.

[JDD]

Without looking up numbers, I suppose Chipper Jones is the only active third baseman who has done enough now to get into the HOF. Scott Rolen has had the second best career, but will fall short. David Wright is off to a good start, and Miguel Cabrera is right there too, but they aren't even at the half-way point.

The smart money is on Chipper and Wright, with no one else making it.

[henrich]

Suppose every one of Ron Santo's true colleagues voted for him. What share of the voters would that be? He would still need support from others.

Playing 1937-1951, Bobby Doerr was not contemporary.
Ten years later, Yogi Berra was not contemporary.
Ten years later, Luis Aparicio was contemporary but he preceded Santo in Chicago.
Ten years later, Jim Palmer overlapped with Santo.
At the same time, manager Earl Weaver overlapped with Santo.
Ten years later, Dennis Eckersley was not contemporary.
Ten years later, Kirby Puckett was not contemporary.

In order to make another point at the same time, all seven of these Hall of Famers worked wholly or almost wholly in the American League.

NOTES
Offhand I didn't think of a general manager.
In the past the honored writers and broadcasters were voting too but I have not listed any of them. Now beginning 2009 the vote is limited to HOF members.

I think I understand this post to state that these people are voters for the Veteran's committee, just a note that I think you are aware of and perhaps it's just an off the cuff rememberance of voters of the living HOFamers, but Kirby Puckett, may he rest in peace has moved on to the next world.

[Fuzzy Bear]

ZERO argument here. The fact that Santo isn't in the HOF is an OUTRAGE.

Santo is an injustice, but I would argue that Whitaker and Trammell are bigger injustices. Especially Whitaker, who was, inexplicably, "one and done".

Over the years, I have come to believe that Dick Allen and Joe Torre are injustices as well.

[MVP31]

Here's the career numbers for each player according to Bill James' "Career Assessments" tool. These will all be counting stats, obviously, but it may give a decent indication as to which way the voters may go when it's all said and done.

Adrian Beltre
2,690 Hits
409 HR
590 2B (15th All-Time)
1,504 RBI

Aramis Ramirez
2,406 Hits
442 HR
521 2B
1539 RBI

Troy Glaus
1,961 Hits
471 HR
419 2B
1350 RBI