Top 100 pitcher project phase 2: randing round 2 1920-1945 + NeL

[jjpm74]

The purpose of phase 2 of this project is to narrow down our round 1 candidates to 40 candidates who will eventually be narrowed down to 20. Here is the list of candidates we are choosing from in this round:

Pete Alexander
Tommy Bridges
Ray Brown
Andy Cooper
Wilbur Cooper
Stan Coveleski
Leon Day
Dizzy Dean
Martin DiHigo
John Donaldson
Red Faber
Wes Ferrell
Bill Foster
Rube Foster
Lefty Gomez
Burleigh Grimes
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Waite Hoyt
Bill Jackman
Walter Johnson
Ted Lyons
Carl Mays
Jose Mendez
Satchel Paige
Herb Pennock
Cannonball Dick Redding
Eppa Rixey
Bullet Joe Rogan
Red Ruffing
Urban Shocker
Luis Tiant Sr.
Dazzy Vance
Bucky Walters
Smoky Joe Williams
Nip Winters

***This will be a vote for 10 and 10 only. Ballots cast with less than 10 or more than 10 will not be counted.***

This phase of polls will run for 4 days each to try to expedite this process.

[jjpm74]

Links to previous rounds:

Pre-1893 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78102)
1893-1919 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78755)
1920-1945 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79250)
NeL and Pre-NeL (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79656)
1946-1968 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79664)
1969-1985 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=80460)
1986-2007 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=80845)
Active Pitchers (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81263)

Phase 2 threads

pre-1893, 1919 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81666)
1919-1945, NeL (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81856)

Phase 1 winners:

Pre-1893:

John Clarkson
Tommy Bond
Bob Caruthers
Larry Corcoran
Candy Cummings
Pud Galvin
Tim Keefe
Sliver King
Bobby Mathews
Jim McCormick
Tony Mullane
Charley Radbourne
Al Spalding
John Ward
Mickey Welch

1894-1919:

Chief Bender
Mordecai Brown
Jack Chesbro
Eddie Ciccotte
Clark Griffith
Addie Joss
Rube Marquard
Christy Mathewson
Joe McGinty
Kid Nichols
Deacon Phillippe
Eddie Plank
Ed Reulbach
Amos Rusie
Jesse Tannehill
Hippo Vaughn
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Vic Willis
Smoky Joe Wood
Cy Young

1920-1945:

Pete Alexander
Tommy Bridges
Wilbur Cooper
Stan Coveleski
Dizzy Dean
Red Faber
Wes Ferrell
Lefty Gomez
Burleigh Grimes
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Waite Hoyt
Walter Johnson
Ted Lyons
Carl Mays
Herb Pennock
Eppa Rixey
Red Ruffing
Urban Shocker
Dazzy Vance
Bucky Walters

NeL and Pre-NeL:

Ray Brown
Andy Cooper
Leon Day
Martin DiHigo
John Donaldson
Bill Foster
Rube Foster
Bill Jackman
Jose Mendez
Satchel Paige
Cannonball Dick Redding
Bullet Joe Rogan
Luis Tiant Sr.
Smoky Joe Williams
Nip Winters

1946-1968:

Jim Bunning
Don Drysdale
Bob Feller
Whitey Ford
Bob Gibson
Sandy Koufax
Bob Lemon
Dutch Leonard
Sal Maglie
Juan Marichal
Denny McLain
Don Newcombe
Hal Newhouser
Billy Pierce
Robin Roberts
Johnny Sain
Warren Spahn
Dizzy Trout
Virgil Trucks
Hoyt Wilhelm
Early Wynn

1969-1985:

Vida Blue
Steve Carlton
Rollie Fingers
Ron Guidry
Catfish Hunter
Fergie Jenkins
Tommy John
Jim Kaat
Jerry Koosman
Mickey Lolich
Sparky Lyle
Tug McGraw
Phil Neikro
Jim Palmer
Gaylord Perry
Dan Quisenberry
Rick Reuschel
Tom Seaver
Don Sutton
Luis Tiant Jr.
Wilbur Wood

1986-2007:

Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Roger Clemens
David Cone
Dennis Eckersley
John Franco
Doc Gooden
Goose Gossage
Tom Henke
Orel Hershiser
Jimmy Key
Dennis Martinez
Jack Morris
Nolan Ryan
Brett Saberhagen
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Dave Stieb
Bruce Sutter*
Frank Tanana
Fernando Vanenzuela
David Wells

Active pitchers:

Tom Glavine
Roy Halladay
Trevor Hoffman
Tim Hudson
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
John Smoltz
Billy Wagner

Phase 2 winners

pre-1893, 1893-1919

Mordecai Brown
John Clarkson
Tim Keefe
Christy Matthewson
Kid Nichols
Eddie Plank
Amos Rusie
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Cy Young

1920-1945, pre NeL and NeL

Pete Alexander
Dizzy Dean
Lefty Gomez
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Walter Johnson
Satchel Paige
Bullet Joe Rogan
Dazzy Vance
Smoky Joe Williams

*Somehow was left of the last ballot. Sutter will appear in phase two.

[jjpm74]

This next round will involve pairing 2 groups and picking 10 from each of those groups. This group of 40 we end up which will then be whittled down to 20 to use to make our top ten. After the initial 4 set, there will be a vote for 20 from the remaining Nel and pre-1945 pitchers and a vote for 20 from the post-1945 pitchers and so on until we end up with rough rankings as follows:

Pitchers who may be in the top 20
Pitchers who may be in 21-40
Pitchers who may be in 41-60
Pitchers who may be in 61-80
Pitchers who may be in 81-100

*there will also be about 50 who don't make the cut after phase 2 is complete that we could rank later if there is an interest.

For phase 3, the plan was to then do 3 day votes for the best pitcher until we get to #10. At that point, should I add 21-40 in with the remaining pitchers who were not ranked in the first subset or continue with the first subset until all 20 are ranked? My concerns are that one the one hand, I don't want to end up with a pitcher ranked #20 if that pitcher could have ended up #25 if they were included with the sub group. On the other hand, I also don't want to see pitchers initially landing in the top group sliding down the rankings to #40 or lower. Thoughts?

[Paul Wendt]

On the major league side I think this group is unusually wide at the bottom, which made it so difficult to vote in round one; unusually narrow in the middle, which bodes well for the Negro Leaguers.

Conventionally there are five standouts.

Alexander
Grove
Johnson
Paige
Williams

Dihigo has a comparable reputation as all-around player but he is not enough pitcher to qualify for my treatment of Al Spalding and Bob Caruthers.

Hubbell alone is the second tier from the white majors. (By convention, Dean too.)

Rube Foster was a greater pitcher than Monte Ward and he'll be in the top 100 on his pitching alone. For now it isn't enough, or I don't believe we know enough. I don't believe what I have read in summaries of 1902, his "rookie" season so the centerpiece seems to be the (eastern) championship series of 1903 and 1904, winning first for the X Giants and then for the Philly Giants.

Donaldson and Redding --the other mainly pre-league pitchers. I'm not a buyer.
Mendez --primarily in Cuba, impresses me more than D and R.
Rogan, pitching mainly after 1920, will benefit from the Spalding-Caruthers whole player treatment. With longevity he looks like a sure thing, although I am not inking him in beside Hubbell this afternoon.

--
add: hopping off the bus at the other end of the line

Jackman --outside the leagues during their heyday, out of the picture now.
The better league pitchers were Foster and Brown

Thus for the "Negro Leaguers",

ofcourse: Williams, Paige
probably: Rogan
?? : Mendez, W.Foster, Brown
problynot: R.Foster

Considering how "Hubbell Stands Alone" in the majors, the easy way to go would be four white, six black.
Third tier candidates from the majors?
offhand Vance, Dean, Lyons --peak and career there.

So my second take is seven votes for the big five plus Hubbell and Rogan.
Three slots remain for seven marked underline.

--
Re the next frame, who are the usual suspects?
We all know that Gomez, Hoyt, and Pennock are the usual suspects in one sense!

[JDD]

I went with the usual suspects, and avoided any Yankee bias put in front of me...

[AstrosFan]

I started out by looking at Negro Leaguers who probably deserved a vote, based on what I've read. That got me Paige, Williams, and Rogan. Then I added in the obvious major leaguers: Alexander, Grove, Hubbell, and Johnson. That got me up to seven. I had three spots left. I gave the first two to Wes Ferrell and Stan Coveleski. My list had Tommy Bridges for the next spot, but I decided to override it and put Bill Foster in instead. Again, it was a guess. I could have gone with Bridges, Foster, or Jose Mendez.

As for Dizzy Dean, I am convinced he was not one of the top ten pitchers in those options. I have no regrets about leaving him off the list.

So, my ten:

Alexander
Coveleski
Ferrell
B. Foster
Grove
Hubbell
Johnson
Paige
Rogan
Williams

[henrich]

Walter Johnson #1 24,549
Pete Alexander #5 19,609
Lefty Grove #19 14,841
Red Ruffing #22 14,697
Herb Pennock #30 13,312
Carl Hubbell #33 12,912
Burleigh Grimes #43 11,722
Lefty Gomez #52 11,392
Carl Mays #69 10,097
Satchel Paige NR Negro League pick

unfortunately the line was very close between Coveleski, Walters and Vance as they were the next in line after Mays from 70-72, but oh well I had to put Paige in there.

[BlueBlood]

1. Walter Johnson
2. Lefty Grove
3. Satchel Paige
4. Pete Alexander
5. Smokey Joe Williams
6. Carl Hubbell
7. Bullet Joe Rogan
8. Dizzy Dean
9. Dazzy Vance
10. Carl Mays

Drafting my ten wasn't very difficult at all....a lot of obvious selections, rounded out by guys I clearly deem much better than the rest of the crop.

[Buzzaldrin]

Dazzy Vance did not win a big league game until he was 31. Dazzy Vance had (by far) the worst run support of any pitcher in the hall of fame. Dazzy Vance played in the worst possible era for pitchers and still won 197 games.

Dazzy Vance led the league in strikeouts and k/9 inings seven years in a row in his 30s. Also K/BB eight times in a row in his ten full seasons as a pitcher. Dazz was probably the most effective strikeout pitcher in history...in his 30s...in the 20s...what more could he have done? What do you want???!!!

Excuse me, but why is Amos Rusie still in the running? How, how???!! can we think Rusie had a better arm than Vance?

If Vance does not advance this stage then I guess I will have to lose faith in this site, but good God- how in the world can you not vote for Dazzy Vance?

[henrich]

Dazzy Vance did not win a big league game until he was 31. Dazzy Vance had (by far) the worst run support of any pitcher in the hall of fame. Dazzy Vance played in the worst possible era for pitchers and still won 197 games.

Dazzy Vance led the league in strikeouts and k/9 inings seven years in a row in his 30s. Also K/BB eight times in a row in his ten full seasons as a pitcher. Dazz was probably the most effective strikeout pitcher in history...in his 30s...in the 20s...what more could he have done? What do you want???!!!

Excuse me, but why is Amos Rusie still in the running? How, how???!! can we think Rusie had a better arm than Vance?

If Vance does not advance this stage then I guess I will have to lose faith in this site, but good God- how in the world can you not vote for Dazzy Vance?

#69 Carl Mays 10,097
#70 Stan Coveleski 10,071
#71 Bucky Walters 10,047
#72 Dazzy Vance 10,040

Very close, but he was 13th on my list of these players. Sorry.

[Paul Wendt]

Sorry, I don't speak Swedish.

[Buzzaldrin]

I am soooo glad my post was edited. Apologies to anyone who had to read the idiot ramblings of a drunken mind.

[Brad Harris]

Rats. I haven't been getting up early enough to log on before heading to work these days. I hate it when I miss the good stuff. :laugh

[leecemark]

--MUCH weaker field than the last one.

[BlueBlood]

I don't know about it being much weaker. There's more separation between the candidates. I rank Johnson, Grove & Page as my top three all time with Pete Alexander probably coming up fourth. That's not a weak field by any stretch.

[STLCards2]

Please consider Coveleski, who put up better IP and ERA+ numbers while not having the luxury of playing with great teams like Gomez and Mays did. Put Gomez and Mays in nuetral conditions, and their numbers wont look very impressive relatively to Covelski, Vance, or even Ferrell, Rixey or Lyons.

Speaking of Rixey and Lyons: both men through tons of innings and posted very good ERA+s. Both men played most of their careers on lousy teams. Please give them the same W-L adjustment that so many freely give to Nolan Ryan for playing with bad teams. Rixey and Lyons out "bad-teamed" Ryan.

[jjpm74]

This is at the midway point. Good turnout so far.

[jjpm74]

With two days to go, 7 pitchers are in a solid spot to advance. Stan Coveleski, Lefty Gomez, Ted Lyons, Carl Mays, Bullet Joe Rogan and Dazzy Vance are all vying for the final three spots. If the poll were to end as is, Rogan, Vance and Gomez would lay claim to the bottom three positions. The only pitcher I'm surprised to see in this group is Lefty Gomez. What is it about him I'm overlooking as compared to Coveleski, Vance, Lyons, Mays?

[Paul Wendt]

jjpm, Is this correct, between the equals?
==
In round two we will advance 40 out of about 150 round one winners. IIUC the final destination of the 40 and the complementary 110 has not been determined yet. For example it may be that the 40 will compose all of the Top 20 and half of the Next 40, so that the 110 round two also-rans have the opportunity to rank as high as #21 but no higher, and will compose all of the N-Next 90 beginning at #61.

Our four groups of ten round two winners will fill the Top 20 and will not be designated the Top 40. There will be some range where round one winners and losers mix in ranks to be determined by later polls --#21 to #60 in my example.
(It isn't a random example. No lower than #60 for the winners, no higher than #20 for the losers, seems to me a commendable design for the use of these four round two polls.)
==

If I understand correctly (== to ==),
we are now deciding who should have shot at the top twenty or somewhat more than twenty. Call it 'twirty' for now. And who wil be relegated outside the top twirty. One of our current winners may end up at #37 and one of our current losers may end up at #31 (a reasonably probable numerical example) if the former does poorly and the latter does well in upcoming rounds, where the range of candidates will be relatively narrow. For now, don't sweat the details.

Far above I wrote that to me Carl Hubbell stands alone as #4 among the major league pitchers on this ballot. He is the second tier in my parlance and there is (unusually, and unlike our first round two poll) a notable gap between him and all the others, the third tier and below.

Coveleski, Dean, Gomez, Lyons, Mays and Vance are the six contenders (in the current standings). Among them Dean will advance and everyone of the others has a moderate to strong chance of advancing although I doubt that every one will advance. I would be happy to destine every one of them to outside the top twirty, without knowing the precise value of twirty.

At the same time I would not be happy to destine any one of the second tier "Negro Leagues" pitchers to outside the top twirty, and I would be happy to destine them all for the top sixty, for example. They are Ray Brown, Willie Foster, Jose Mendez, Bullet Rogan. (Because R.Foster is a non-starter and Martin Dihigo is not enough a pitcher at all, it seems to me.)

Therefore, although I am not sure that all of these four Negro Leaguers should rank above all of the third tier major leaguers, at this stage it is easy for me to pull the trigger and vote for all four. And now I've done it.

chronological order within each line
Johnson, Alexander, Grove
Williams, Paige
Hubbell
Mendez, Rogan, W.Foster, R.Brown

[jjpm74]

jjpm, Is this correct, between the equals?
==
In round two we will advance 40 out of about 150 round one winners. IIUC the final destination of the 40 and the complementary 110 has not been determined yet. For example it may be that the 40 will compose all of the Top 20 and half of the Next 40, so that the 110 round two also-rans have the opportunity to rank as high as #21 but no higher, and will compose all of the N-Next 90 beginning at #61.

Our four groups of ten round two winners will fill the Top 20 and will not be designated the Top 40. There will be some range where round one winners and losers mix in ranks to be determined by later polls --#21 to #60 in my example.
(It isn't a random example. No lower than #60 for the winners, no higher than #20 for the losers, seems to me a commendable design for the use of these four round two polls.)
==

If I understand correctly (== to ==),
we are now deciding who should have shot at the top twenty or somewhat more than twenty. Call it 'twirty' for now. And who wil be relegated outside the top twirty. One of our current winners may end up at #37 and one of our current losers may end up at #31 (a reasonably probable numerical example) if the former does poorly and the latter does well in upcoming rounds, where the range of candidates will be relatively narrow. For now, don't sweat the details.


That sounds correct. I'm trying to adjust for generational bias as some generations may have more than their share of top 20 calibre pitchers whereas another may have less. There are basically two ways I can set up the groups of 40 and here's where I'm looking for feedback:

I can have voters choose 20 and make the top 20 tier 1 and then add the 20 who don't make the cut back to the general pool of pitchers

or

I can have voters choose 20 and make the top 20 tier 1 and the next 20 tier 2. Which choice does the general community favor?

Once we have our tiers (and we will go with 6 tiers of 20, not 5), I'll be running choose 1 polls until we get our top 10. Then I'll take the 10 from tier 1 that didn't make it onto the ranked top 10 list and add them to the tier 2 group before resuming with the choose 1 polls.

In the event of a tie, I'll do a side poll with a runoff. The winner of the runoff will be the next ranked pitcher and the loser or losers will rank under the winner rather than reenter the tier pools. In the unlikely event that a runoff ends in a tie, both will be ranked at whatever number we're up to at that point.

[jjpm74]

This round ends in a couple of hours. Has everyone weighed in who wants to?

[Paul Wendt]

As you have set the alternatives:
I can have voters choose 20 and make the top 20 tier 1 and then add the 20 who don't make the cut back to the general pool of pitchers
or

I can have voters choose 20 and make the top 20 tier 1 and the next 20 tier 2. Which choice does the general community favor?
Does it matter? Some mixing of early winners and early losers from different time periods is good but I think you have that either way. Whoever finishes 10th in this poll may end up at #44 by losing subsequent elections, right?

Under the first alternative you may handle ties by inclusion at this stage. Make the top 20 tier 1 and add the remaining 20 or more, depending on the number of ties, to the general pool of pitchers.

[RuthMayBond]

Two people left Hubbell off :banghead:

[jjpm74]

That's what I was leaning towards, Paul, but wanted to make sure the folks participating didn't think it was overkill.

[jjpm74]

The following pitchers will move on from this group:

Pete Alexander
Dizzy Dean
Lefty Gomez
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Walter Johnson
Satchel Paige
Bullet Joe Rogan
Dazzy Vance
Smoky Joe Williams