Guys Helping Their HOF Chances in 2008

[Fuzzy Bear]

By "helping" their chances, I don't necessarily mean clear-cut candidates reaching a milestone. Ken Griffey, Jr. hitting his 600th HR doesn't help his chances; he was a shoo-in once he got to 500, and probably before. A-Rod and Manny didn't help themselves by making it to 500; they were sure-fire selections several years ago. When guys like this reach 500, it only clinches their first ballot HOFer status (although the voters didn't get the memo when it was Eddie Mathews' turn). I mean guys who went from off the radar to a viable (if not yet strong) candidacy, or guys who go from 50-50 to more likely than not. (Baseball is not the kind of sport where a guy can go from a miniscule chance to a sure-fire candidacy.)

Johnny Damon and Jim Edmonds have been discussed in recent threads. These two guys have done much to help their chances because they have made significant progress toward milestones.

Damon will have somewhere in the range of 2,260-2,280 hits by the end of the season. This dramatically increases Damon's chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Damon is the kind of guy who won't make the HOF unless he gets to 3,000 hits, but he's giving it a great run. He's increases his chances of getting 3,000 hits significantly, and if he stays healthy, he will be a 50-50 shot to make the HOF.

Edmonds, we have talked about in another thread as well. He's launched a comeback and has made it to 377 career HRs. Edmonds' chances at 400 HRs were next to nil after last season, but he's revived his career to the point where he's a 50-50 shot for 400 HRs. Given Edmonds' defensive credentials, 400 HRs makes him a surprisingly viable candidate, and he's taken a huge step toward that milestone this year.

Jermaine Dye has made progress toward the HOF this year. He's having a career year, his team is winning, and he's at 290 HRs right now. He's got a shot of being at 300 HRs by season's end; it would be somewhat unlikely if he didn't make it to 300 this year. Most people have not viewed Dye as a viable HOF candidate, but Dye has been plugging away and plugging away to the point where he has established a statistically significant chance to make it to 500 HRs. Dye probably needs to make it to 500 to be a HOFer, and he's still more likely to fall short, but he's pushed himself forward this year to the point where he doesn't have to have more career years. He just has to show the kind of durability and retention of talent that HOF-caliber players display.

Mike Mussina appears likely to win 20 games for the first time; that would cinch his chances. Even if he doesn't, he'll have a big enough season to where he has probably done enough, even without a 20 win season, to be elected to the HOF by the writers. Had he petered out this year, he'd probably have been in Jack Morris Land, but he's done enough this year alone to escape that fate for all time.

Brandon Webb is having the kind of year that will net him his second Cy Young Award. He'll win 20 this year, barring a HUGE fade. He's posted the kind of year that, when melded in with the rest of his career, puts him in the position of a Dizzy Dean, a Sandy Koufax, a Pedro Martinez; a guy who can expect to be elected to the HOF with 150 wins if he blows out his arm early. He's done a lot so far, and what he's doing, statistically, will be compounded if he does well, as expected, in award voting.

Lance Berkman has pushed his BA over .300, and he's having a super year. His OWP is .736 for his career, and he's hit the ten (10) year mark. Berkman is 50-50, at a minimum, to reach 500 HRs, and he's at a point where, if his career were suddenly and tragically ended, his accomplishments to date might be enough to put him in the HOF.

Adam Dunn has 270 HRs at age 29, and he's not done. He's got 32 HRs to date, and is an odds-on favorite to top the 40 HR mark for the 5th straight year. His BA is an issue, but his OBP is stellar, and he's apparently beat the injury problems he had early in his career. Dunn will always have his critics, but he's an automatic 40 HR guy, and how many people in all of baseball history could say that?

Magglio Ordonez is hitting his career norms. He's doing what he has to do to enhance his particular chances, in that (A) he's staying in the lineup (after missing much time in 2004-05 due to injuries) and (B) he's hitting his career norms. Mags' lifetime BA is .312; he needs to have a long career AND keep his BA over .300 lifetime to make the HOF. What he's doing this year helps him a lot in that regard. Mags is also at the point where he MIGHT make the HOF if his career were to be tragically ended suddenly (although no one wishes that, of course).

[dgarza]

Ichiro Suzuki is NOT having a stellar year this season, but each year he gets closer to 10 MLB seasons does help his questioned HOF eligibility.
I think that's import in his unusual case.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ichiro Suzuki is NOT having a stellar year this season, but each year he gets closer to 10 MLB seasons does help his questioned HOF eligibility.
I think that's import in his unusual case.

I think Ichiro's pretty much a done deal, don't you? If he blew out his knee and couldn't play again, I think they'd waive the 10 year rule for him. If he made one plate appearance next year and one the year after, I think they'd take him into the HOF.

Perhaps I'm overestimating Ichiro's current standing with HOF voters. If I am, than, yes, he's a good addition to the list.

[willshad]

Some other:

Aramis Ramirez:
Batting average is down, but walks are up, which could be a sign that hes learned to be more patient. Where fellow third basemen Rolen and Chavez have fallen off the page, he keeps plugging along. Probably needs a big, MVP type season or two.

Bobby Abreau:
Although in decline, as long as he stays in that lineup he will produce runs, and add to his career totals. Counting stats are all he needs at this point.

Jason Giambi:
Steroids notwithstanding, Giambi keeps hitting for power, and is inching towards 400 homers and 1500 RBI. There is no doubt his peak value is good enough.

Carlos Delgado:
Appeared done after last season and the first half of this season. Has come back remarkably, and is nearing automatic hall of famer status. 500 homers seems likely now.

Albert Pujols:
Proved that least season wasnt really the start of a decline. Is now a different type of hitter...more walks and less counting stats..but still valuable. should make the hall of fame even if he declines rapidly starting next year.

Chipper Jones:
Stellar season puts him over the hump in even the most ardent doubters' minds.

Chase Utley:
Kind of early to talk hall of fame, but at age 30 is already one of the best hitting second basemen ever. A similar player to Jeff kent, and if he can produce in his 30s nearly as well as Kent did, hes a lock.

Carlos Lee:
A career year. Not likely for the hall, but if he can continnue at this level a couple of seasons he may inch towards some good career numbers. About the same as Dye, but 2 years younger. Like Ramirez, needs a huge season to help his peak value.

[JDD]

Ichiro is in, because he is from Japan. He will carry that banner and represent that type of career path.

Adam Dunn is going to run into a lot of voters who think he is just another Dave Kingman.

I think Damon lacks the really great HOF-type seasons we would like to see in a HOFer. He needed three or four mor seasons like his last one in Kansas City. He will retire famous, and rich, so let's not weep for Mr. Damon. Looking at his record, he had a lot of reeeealy good years. Gotta love nine years in a row with 100 runs scored....

Carlos Lee... just another guy who will suffer as he will be considered just another outfielder from this era who could hit. Same with Bobby Abreu.

The last guy I will mention is Lance Berkman. The fact that he plays in Houston will hurt his chances. And even if he repeats the first half of his career in the secon half, he will come in right around 500 homers. But I think he will be lumped in with all the other outfielders of this era, among guys who (also) hit a ton of homers. His OBP will be much higher, but I don't think enough voters will notice. Had the Astros won the World Series that year, his case would be much more interesting... IMHO. This will sound strange to the average reader, but I just don't think he is famous enough. Maybe if he wins the batting title.... I don't know....

[philkid3]

Webb? A Hall of Famer? Really?

[Bravesfan1984]

You really think that winning 20 games is gonna make Mussina an automatic HOFer? I don't he will need 300 to get in. I just do not see damon or edmonds getting in. There are to many guys ahead of them who have to make it first.

[philkid3]

You really think that winning 20 games is gonna make Mussina an automatic HOFer? I don't he will need 300 to get in. I just do not see damon or edmonds getting in. There are to many guys ahead of them who have to make it first.

There aren't that many guys ahead of Edmonds who have to get in first. He might not get in, but as far as who should get in he wouldn't be that far down if put on the list of those still waiting.

[dgarza]

I think Ichiro's pretty much a done deal, don't you? If he blew out his knee and couldn't play again, I think they'd waive the 10 year rule for him. If he made one plate appearance next year and one the year after, I think they'd take him into the HOF.

Perhaps I'm overestimating Ichiro's current standing with HOF voters. If I am, than, yes, he's a good addition to the list.

I think you're making a possible but risky assumption about the 10 year rule. Reaching 10 MLB seasons just takes that eligibility issue off the plate altogether.

I like Ichiro for the HOF myself, but I think you may be overestimating his general standing.

[dgarza]

Aramis Ramirez:
Batting average is down, but walks are up, which could be a sign that hes learned to be more patient. Where fellow third basemen Rolen and Chavez have fallen off the page, he keeps plugging along. Probably needs a big, MVP type season or two.

Bobby Abreau:
Although in decline, as long as he stays in that lineup he will produce runs, and add to his career totals. Counting stats are all he needs at this point.

Jason Giambi:
Steroids notwithstanding, Giambi keeps hitting for power, and is inching towards 400 homers and 1500 RBI. There is no doubt his peak value is good enough.

Carlos Delgado:
Appeared done after last season and the first half of this season. Has come back remarkably, and is nearing automatic hall of famer status. 500 homers seems likely now.

I feel these guys are just plateauing. I don't see 2008 doing much for any of their HOF cases either way. They have added counting stats (who wouldn't), sure, but they have not reached milestones or come up just shy of important milestones.

[Yankeefan94]

I think Mussina definitely deserves to be in the hall of fame.
He's won 10 games in a season for 17 consecutive years. The only season he didn't win 10 games was his rookie year. He won 19 games twice, 18 games three times, and 17 games twice. His career winning percentage is .637%. He finished in the top ten in wins 9 times, the top ten in ERA 11 times, WHIP 11 times, BB/9IP 15 times, K/9IP 10 times, hits/9IP 9 times, strikeouts 10 times, strikouts to walks 15 times, and he came in the top ten for Cy Young award voting 8 times. He has pitched like this in a hitter dominant era. However, he has been overshadowed by other 1st ballot hall of fame pitchers of the time, like Clemens, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Glavine, and Smoltz.
And as Mussina says himself, why should the last years of your career decide whether or not you make it to the hall of fame?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

First of all, I think its too early to be calling Webb a HOF. The man barely has 80 wins yet and he's almost 30 years old. Great pitcher though.

- IMO opinion Bobby Abreu has advanced his chances this year. He's on pace for yet another 20HR, 100Run, 40Double,100RBI, 20SB season. I've never understood why he doesn't get the credit he deserves - he's been extremely durable, consistent & amongst the most well rounded player in the last 20 years. This year is yet more of the same although no single offensive stat has WOW factor with Abreu.

- I have no idea where your going putting Jermaine Dye on your list. Unless he can duplicate his 2008 stats for another 5-6 years, then just maybe we have something here. But unfortunately for him, he wasn't a full-timer until 25yrs old and has had injuries and a few mediocre season sprinkled in which will leave him well short. There's no way Dye will hold up until the age of 40 and being a corner outfielder with little speed means his Hall chances are essentially zero.

- The person who has made the biggest leap this year has definitely been Mike Mussina. IMO, he was very much borderline until this year. There was talk of dismissing him from the rotation after a dismal 2007 campaign; and since Mussina's career ERA was highish at 3.70, he needed a strong decline in order to get in. His great career winning % is largely attributed to playing with an amazing offensive team so his bounceback this year shows the world his ability on the mound with declining stuff. He's a legitimate No.1 starter again at the age of 39 and theres no doubt he reinvented himself in a big way. I don't think no CyYoung or no 20 win season hurts him much anymore after this strong campaign.

[Paul Wendt]

Delgado's second year with the Mets was down from the first and some people probably supposed that he would never be more than an average batter again. From that perspective 2008 is an uptick that makes everything seem more likely --not only the Hall of Fame but another job offer at a salary he will accept. (Not everyone will go down to $500k like Andre Dawson). He cannot earn what the Mets pay --not in anyone's eyes, or maybe it's only in New York if he enjoys a great October. But he can move all his probabilities a lot.

On the other hand, for anyone who supposed five years ago that he would never be Carlos Delgado again, not paying close attention year by year, this is just another season as expected then.

[Paul Wendt]

good show, FB

Brandon Webb is having the kind of year that will net him his second Cy Young Award. He'll win 20 this year, barring a HUGE fade. He's posted the kind of year that, when melded in with the rest of his career, puts him in the position of a Dizzy Dean, a Sandy Koufax, a Pedro Martinez; a guy who can expect to be elected to the HOF with 150 wins if he blows out his arm early.

This may be true except the concluding phrase. It's already too late to be someone who blows out his arm early. No one wins 30 or 25 games in a season now. If he repeats 2005-2008, same great rate statistics and average 17 wins, he will have those 150 wins but he will also have ten seasons with ERA 2/3 of league average.

He is much older: this winter he will match Pedro after four years in Boston and Dean three years after the five-year run.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Johnny Damon and Jim Edmonds have been discussed in recent threads. These two guys have done much to help their chances because they have made significant progress toward milestones.

Damon will have somewhere in the range of 2,260-2,280 hits by the end of the season. This dramatically increases Damon's chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Damon is the kind of guy who won't make the HOF unless he gets to 3,000 hits, but he's giving it a great run. He's increases his chances of getting 3,000 hits significantly, and if he stays healthy, he will be a 50-50 shot to make the HOF.


I don't agree Johnny Damon necessarily has to get 3000 hits to get in. As far as pure leadoff hitters go, he's probably near the Top 10 All time right now. People forget how truly rare these players are. If you don't believe me, try to think of how many great leadoff hitters with 10+ excellent seasons there have been over the past 25 years. I can think of maybe 4: Henderson, Raines (7 yr peak), Kenny Lofton, Brett Butler (obviously not in Damon's league) and.. who else??

Of course there are others who were excellent leadoff hitters for shorter periods of time; players who eventually moved to the 2 or 3 spot; Bonds, Jeter, Larkin, Biggio come to mind. There are others with better stolen base numbers but lacked Damon's power numbers and/or longevity; mainly the aforementioned Brett Butler, Willie Wilson, Otis Nixon, Ozzie Smith, Vince Coleman, Lenny Dykstra, Ron Leflore, Omar Moreno.

But in terms all around pure leadoff hitters go, Johnny Damon has been one of the finest. I have him measurably lower than Henderson, and close With Raines and Lofton as this generations best leadoff hitter. Another 2-3 more close to trend seasons should get him in regardless of 3000 hits.

[Bravesfan1984]

[QUOTE=Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan;1278640]I don't agree Johnny Damon necessarily has to get 3000 hits to get in. As far as pure leadoff hitters go, he's probably near the Top 10 All time right now. People forget how truly rare these players are. If you don't believe me, try to think of how many great leadoff hitters with 10+ excellent seasons there have been over the past 25 years. I can think of maybe 4: Henderson, Raines (7 yr peak), Kenny Lofton, Brett Butler (obviously not in Damon's league) and.. who else??

Of course there are others who were excellent leadoff hitters for shorter periods of time; players who eventually moved to the 2 or 3 spot; Jeter, Larkin, Biggio come to mind. There are others with better stolen base numbers but lacked Damon's power numbers and/or longevity; mainly the
aforementioned Brett Butler, Willie Wilson, Otis Nixon, Ozzie Smith, Vince Coleman, Lenny Dykstra, Ron Leflore, Omar Moreno.

[B]Damon put up good stats but never great numbers. Where is this power you talking about he only hit 20+ homers twice and 5 years he had 10 or less. He never had an obp over 400. His never finished in the top ten mvp once. He also never had over 100 rbi's.There is not one single year you could say he had a HOF year. He was a good player but definitely not a great player. Ricky Henderson is a far better player then Damon. Henderson won an mvp and had a career obp over 400.

[Cougar]

Johnny Damon has a real shot at winning the AL batting title this year. There's a crowd of players hitting around .320; he's one of them. When I checked in today's newspaper (yeah, I still read newspapers), Damon was in the lead. Leading the league in BA would be at least a modest rejoinder to those who say "When did Damon ever have a HOF season?" (Although he has led the league in other categories...runs, SB, triples.)

Adam Dunn is tied for the league lead in HR. His usual 40+ will look better if the record books if it's the best mark in the league one season.

Lastly, I think Lance Berkman probably has as good a chance as anyone to win the NL MVP this season, in a season where no one is really running away with the title. An MVP under his belt would advance his cause considerably.

[STLCards2]

Lastly, I think Lance Berkman probably has as good a chance as anyone to win the NL MVP this season, in a season where no one is really running away with the title. An MVP under his belt would advance his cause considerably.

Berkman will not win MVP- others like Pujols, Braun, Utley, and Ramirez are putting up equal (in Pujols' case) or in-the-same-league numbers as Berkman and are in playoff contention. I am not saying he shouldn't win, but he will not.

[John Shoemaker]

Jeff Kent is having another solid season that should erase any doubts about him as a future hall of hamer. His stats as a second baseman make a first ballot election a possibility.

[Westlake]

Jeff Kent is having another solid season that should erase any doubts about him as a future hall of hamer. His stats as a second baseman make a first ballot election a possibility.

Jeff Kent is having a solid season? He has a below average OPS and plays shoddy defense. I think he's definitely a HOFer, but I don't think he helped his case much this year.

[Cougar]

Berkman will not win MVP- others like Pujols, Braun, Utley, and Ramirez are putting up equal (in Pujols' case) or in-the-same-league numbers as Berkman and are in playoff contention. I am not saying he shouldn't win, but he will not.

This is probably true, but Berkman is certainly in the mix. If he goes bananas in September, he might get it. There also might be a small factor in the voting that it's "his turn". Pujols already has one (even though he theoretically ought to have three or more), Utley would be the third straight Phillie and he's faded badly after a gonzo start, and the other two still have dues to pay. (Not that that should matter, but it sometimes does.)

[Bravesfan1984]

[QUOTE=Cougar;1278901]Johnny Damon has a real shot at winning the AL batting title this year. There's a crowd of players hitting around .320; he's one of them. When I checked in today's newspaper (yeah, I still read newspapers), Damon was in the lead. Leading the league in BA would be at least a modest rejoinder to those who say "When did Damon ever have a HOF season?" (Although he has led the league in other categories...runs, SB, triples.)

He still does not have an obp over 400 and has only 7 home runs. Hardley a HOF year. If this does turn into a HOF season that is one. One HOF season does not make you a HOFer.Damon even is not the best hitter on his team. Gimabi has better stats.

[Cougar]

The title of the thread is "Guys helping their HOF chances in 2008". Winning a batting title will help Damon's HOF chances. That is indisputable. Whether it will help a little or a lot is debatable, but it certainly won't hurt. Regardless, he's having what any sensible person would call a very good season.

And, BTW, I'd say both 2000 and 2004 were HOF caliber seasons for a leadoff hitting center fielder.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Damon put up good stats but never great numbers. Where is this power you talking about he only hit 20+ homers twice and 5 years he had 10 or less. He never had an obp over 400. His never finished in the top ten mvp once. He also never had over 100 rbi's.There is not one single year you could say he had a HOF year. He was a good player but definitely not a great player. Ricky Henderson is a far better player then Damon. Henderson won an mvp and had a career obp over 400.[/B]


If this is not a HOF-type year out of the leadoff spot, I don't know what is:

Year Ag Tm .Lg .. G ..AB R ....H ..2B 3B HR RBI .SB CS BB ..SO BA OBP SLG
2000 26 KCR AL 159 655 136 214 42 .10 16 88 .46 .9 ..65 .60 .327 .382 .495

#1 AL runs (136)
#1 Al stolen bases (46)
#2 AL hits (214)
#3 AL triples (10)
#10 AL doubles (42)

The funny thing is, he didn't even make the all-star team that year!

[Fuzzy Bear]

The title of the thread is "Guys helping their HOF chances in 2008". Winning a batting title will help Damon's HOF chances. That is indisputable. Whether it will help a little or a lot is debatable, but it certainly won't hurt. Regardless, he's having what any sensible person would call a very good season.

And, BTW, I'd say both 2000 and 2004 were HOF caliber seasons for a leadoff hitting center fielder.


If Damon were to win the batting title, it would help him a lot. He'd move up in Black Ink and HOF standards. Winning a batting title is the kind of thing a HOFer is perceived as doing at least once in his career.

[Brad Harris]

Miguel Cabrera - True, it's an off-year by his standards, by Miggy will likely have his third .300-30-100 year and get his 1,000th major league hit before season's end. How many people have done as much through age 25? He's only going to get better.

Carl Crawford - Probably never going to be a serious candidate, but an interesting case nonetheless. Crawford stole his 300th base the other night, has more than 1,000 hits with a .293 batting average and a (slightly) above average OPS+ at the age of 26.

Brian Giles - At .293/.403/.511/138, Giles is having his best season in three years. He's 37 and likely never going to make the Hall, but if he's ever going to make a big push, he needs to "decline" like this year and not last 2006-2007.

Vladimir Guerrero - Will notch his 400th double and come awfully close to his 400th home run despite his production being less than what we're used to seeing. He's still putting up a .294/.356/.504/126 line this year, at age 32, and plated his 1,100th run and 1,200th RBI earlier this season.

Roy Halladay - I can't help feeling his Hall chances are doomed by playing for such a crummy team in addition to his various injuries over the years. Hallady has quietly fashioned another Cy Young-type season this year at 13-9, 2.72, 155. 200+ innings of 150ish ERA+ is a serious boost to his career totals (130 career ERA+ in a little less than 1,800 innings). Halladay has a .660 winning percentage with 124 career wins so he's at the point in his career, at age 31, where every additional year like this year is a major boost to his candidacy.

Joe Mauer - The best catcher in the American League, Mauer (age 25) is finishing his fifth season and currently sports a .313/.397/.456/126 line in 2,200 career PA.

Francisco Rodriguez - Another phenomenal year from one of the best closers in the game. F-Rod could possibly break the single season save record, already owning 45 this year. Don't worry about his career innings totals because he'll only be compared to other relievers when he makes the ballot and the guy is only 26 years old.

Johan Santana - His first year in the NL has certainly been a good one. Won his 100th game this year, pushed his career ERA+ back up to 142, notched his 1,500th strikeout. The 29-year old needs to string more seasons like 2008 together, but this year is certainly a feather in his cap (despite the lackluster W-L record.)

Omar Vizquel - By playing this season, Vizquel became the all-time career leader among shortstops for games played which is the type of trivial statistic some voters are going to leverage to make the difference in his case.

Billy Wagner - Has continued to add to a HoF type resume and, at age 36, has not shown signs of decline at all. He'll need to repeat it a few more times to make himself a strong candidate but 385 saves with a 180 ERA+ is looking real good right now.

[jjpm74]

Johan Santana - His first year in the NL has certainly been a good one. Won his 100th game this year, pushed his career ERA+ back up to 142, notched his 1,500th strikeout. The 29-year old needs to string more seasons like 2008 together, but this year is certainly a feather in his cap (despite the lackluster W-L record.)

It's hard to build a good W-L record when the Mets bullpen blows 7 wins for you. His record should be more like 16-5.

Billy Wagner - Has continued to add to a HoF type resume and, at age 36, has not shown signs of decline at all. He'll need to repeat it a few more times to make himself a strong candidate but 385 saves with a 180 ERA+ is looking real good right now.

I have to disagree with this one. He's blown a lot of saves this year and has lost a notable amount of velocity on his fast ball. He's also injured. I think the end is near for Wagner (at least as a closer).

[jjpm74]

I think Mussina definitely deserves to be in the hall of fame.
He's won 10 games in a season for 17 consecutive years. The only season he didn't win 10 games was his rookie year. He won 19 games twice, 18 games three times, and 17 games twice. His career winning percentage is .637%. He finished in the top ten in wins 9 times, the top ten in ERA 11 times, WHIP 11 times, BB/9IP 15 times, K/9IP 10 times, hits/9IP 9 times, strikeouts 10 times, strikouts to walks 15 times, and he came in the top ten for Cy Young award voting 8 times. He has pitched like this in a hitter dominant era. However, he has been overshadowed by other 1st ballot hall of fame pitchers of the time, like Clemens, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Glavine, and Smoltz.
And as Mussina says himself, why should the last years of your career decide whether or not you make it to the hall of fame?

I agree that Mussina is a HOFer, but there are 4 things that can help his chances of convincing the BBWAA to that effect: a Cy Young, a 20 win season, some World Series heroics, 300 career wins. If Mussina continues on his pace this season, he has an outside chance at both a Cy Young and a 20 win season. If the Yankees can get their acts together, he also has a shot at some World Series heroics. If he can get a 1 year with 1 year option contract with the Yankees, he has an outside chance of getting very close to 300 wins in the next two seasons if he can keep his act together. If he's at or over 290 at the end of any given season, he will definitely come back to attempt to get to 300 wins.

[Mike90]

Mike Mussina I don't think anyone has boosted their resume as much as Mussina (at least that was true until his last couple of bad starts). 2007 was really bad (5.15 ERA, only 91 Ks in 152 innings), and it looked like he had lost his stuff. He needed a good season to make him a clear-cut hall of famer, and he came through: 17-9, 183 innings, 3.63 ERA. I think he has 3 more starts left so he has an outside chance at 20 wins, which would take a ridiculous argument against him off the table.

Roy Halladay So far he's leading the league in innings, WHIP, complete cames, shutouts, K/BB ratio and is 2nd in both wins and ERA. He's probably going to be 2nd or 3rd in the Cy Young voting.

Jim Thome Moved from 24th to 14th in career HRs.

Ichiro and Albert Pujols Both of them were probably locks heading into the season, but now they're even more lockish. Ichiro is projected to have his 8th straight season with at least a .300 BA and 200 hits. Pujols should be NL MVP.

Carlos Delgado Mets have 14 games left, and Delgado already has 35 HRs and 104 RBIs. Sportswriters love 100-RBI seasons.

Johan Santana Currently 2nd in NL in both ERA and innings. Just a great pitcher, although this will be his 1st full season where he hasn't averaged at least a strikeout per innning.

Derek Jeter Another season with a BA better than .300, and he surpassed 2500 hits. Already a lock. There are more guys that I don't feel like writing about right now.

[Brad Harris]

Career Win Shares, Active in 2008, 200+ min.
424 Gary Sheffield
405 Alex Rodriguez
405 Frank Thomas
401 Ken Griffey Jr.
395 Greg Maddux
369 Manny Ramirez
349 Chipper Jones
348 Jim Thome
344 Jeff Kent
326 Luis Gonzalez
325 Ivan Rodriguez
325 Randy Johnson
318 Derek Jeter
315 Tom Glavine
304 Jason Giambi
301 Carlos Delgado
300 Jim Edmonds
298 Bobby Abreu
298 Vladimir Guerrero
292 Brian Giles
288 John Smoltz
284 Moises Alou
282 Albert Pujols
271 Mike Mussina
266 Todd Helton
261 Omar Vizquel
261 Scott Rolen
256 Andruw Jones
253 Johnny Damon
251 Pedro Martinez
247 Carlos Beltran
244 Lance Berkman
236 Miguel Tejada
230 Ray Durham
228 Jorge Posada
228 Mike Cameron
225 Jason Kendall
223 Garret Anderson
222 Magglio Ordonez
218 Nomar Garciaparra
216 Jamie Moyer
212 Kenny Rogers
210 Ichiro Suzuki
199 Mariano Rivera

[DoubleX]

I'll throw Jeff Kent's name into the discussion. To most of us, it definitely looks like a down year and perhaps a sign that the end of his career is near. However, the voters typically like counting numbers, and each year that Kent can stick around and add on to his numbers will increase his chances. I don't think voters are really going to hold it against him if he sticks around as a mediocre player. True, that has hurt some players such as Dawson and Raines who played a long time after their peaks, thereby foggying some the memories of their greatness for some of the voters, but with someone like Kent, who never really got much attention for his peak play anyway, the voters will look at the numbers.

[BlueBlood]

Pujols just guaranteed himself Hall placement this season. His last five seasons amounted to 180 win shares. That total doesn't include the remainder of this season or the year 2003 (which may have been his best via this metric)....for a first baseman to pull a peak like that with more career value than Hall of Famers like Ralph Kiner or Kirby Puckett, it's pretty much a go.

[Mike90]

Pujols has as many career win shares through (almost) 8 seasons as Jim Rice.

[willshad]

Pujols has as many career win shares through (almost) 8 seasons as Jim Rice.

Is that supposed to be a knock agaiinst Rice, or against the 'win shares' system?

Why do people keep bringing up this stat, as if anyone actually uses it to determine someone's hall worthiness? I havent even seen it used anywhere except this board. Im not saying it's worthless, but one unproven, flawed, experimental stat in and of itself is hardly 'proof' of someone's greatness, or of one player's superiority to another. It might be ok in support of a greater agrument, but to say' well this guy has this many career win shares, and had a peak of this many win shares' as the entire case doesnt mean a thing as far as Im concerned. And it probably means even less to the guys who actually do the voting. One can even see how flawed it is by looking at the above list. Nobody in their right mind puts Sheffield over Thomas, Griffey, or Maddux. Luis Gonzalez isnt even close to being a borderline hall of famer, yet there he is among fist ballot locks.

That said, you dont need it to know that Pujols is a hall lock, as soon as he gets 10 seasons under his belt. Hes the new Frank Thomas, but on a slightly lesser scale. But to sit there and say hes had more value in 8 years than Rice had in 15 is just stupid. To me it just shows how bad the stat is.

[Cougar]

Pujols is better than Frank Thomas. And I don't say that lightly.

[dgarza]

Depending on who wins the WS, Guillen, Scioscia, Francona, Piniella, and Torre may have strengthened thier HOF caes.
I'm not sure how much Torre really needs 2008. Both his playing career and managing career could be strong enough on their own already.

Besides Torre, do any of their playing days add any weight to their candidacy?
I don't think so. Piniella and Scioscia might be the closest, but still not substancial enough to make a dent.

[willshad]

Pujols is better than Frank Thomas. And I don't say that lightly.

care to elaborate? Thomas had a better peak (or at least as good), and has had a much longer career. Are you saying if Albert retired now his career would be better than Frank's? Or that he will likely end up with a better career? The first statement is ridiculous and the second is pure assumption.

[Cougar]

care to elaborate? Thomas had a better peak (or at least as good), and has had a much longer career. Are you saying if Albert retired now his career would be better than Frank's? Or that he will likely end up with a better career? The first statement is ridiculous and the second is pure assumption.

Career wise, no, of course not. Albert's career isn't over, perhaps not even half over.

Pujols' best seasons to date stack up very well with Thomas'. I'm at work and don't have time to analyze this closely now, but I feel pretty good about that. I suppose Thomas probably walked more...that matters. But I think Pujols probably has a little more pop.

And Pujols is a LOT more consistent than Thomas. Perhaps Thomas' best two or three seasons are a little better than Pujols'...I don't know, but even if that's so...Pujols' fourth best, fifth best, sixth best, seventh best, and eighth best are going to be better than oft-injured Frank's. Really, looking at Pujols' seasons...they're very tough to rank....they're all scary good.

And that's not even talking about fielding value, baserunning value, clubhouse value. In terms of what you might call extended peak, which really encompasses Pujols' entire career, Albert's record is stronger.

This stinks. I don't want to talk down Frank Thomas...he's one of the best half-dozen or so right-handed hitters of all time. But suffice it to say I'd rather have Pujols on my team.

[willshad]

Career wise, no, of course not. Albert's career isn't over, perhaps not even half over.

Pujols' best seasons to date stack up very well with Thomas'. I'm at work and don't have time to analyze this closely now, but I feel pretty good about that. I suppose Thomas probably walked more...that matters. But I think Pujols probably has a little more pop.

And Pujols is a LOT more consistent than Thomas. Perhaps Thomas' best two or three seasons are a little better than Pujols'...I don't know, but even if that's so...Pujols' fourth best, fifth best, sixth best, seventh best, and eighth best are going to be better than oft-injured Frank's. Really, looking at Pujols' seasons...they're very tough to rank....they're all scary good.

And that's not even talking about fielding value, baserunning value, clubhouse value. In terms of what you might call extended peak, which really encompasses Pujols' entire career, Albert's record is stronger.

This stinks. I don't want to talk down Frank Thomas...he's one of the best half-dozen or so right-handed hitters of all time. But suffice it to say I'd rather have Pujols on my team.


I dont know, Id personally take Thomas' best 8 seasons over Pujols' career so far. I think people tend to think of Thomas as a guy who always gets injured, and forget how good he used to be . I dont hear people calling Albert the black Ted Williams. The Hispanic Jimmie Foxx? Maybe. But we have to see how the rest of his career turns out.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Magglio Ordonez - Although he's always been a good player, Magglio was pretty under the radar until last year. After getting his name out there in '07, he did something that I consider very important in '08: he didn't have an off year. It may not seem like a big deal, but he would've faded back into relative obscurity if he'd hit .270 with 15 homers this year. He also hit a few milestones in '08: 250 homers and 1,000 RBIs. His ticket to the HOF is going to be as a high batting average guy though. His career average is .312, which he can't afford to let fall too much. A batting title this year would help tremendously too (he's currently four points behind Pedroia).

[STLCards2]

I dont know, Id personally take Thomas' best 8 seasons over Pujols' career so far. I think people tend to think of Thomas as a guy who always gets injured, and forget how good he used to be . I dont hear people calling Albert the black Ted Williams. The Hispanic Jimmie Foxx? Maybe. But we have to see how the rest of his career turns out.

It is pretty close. Thomas has a noticable hitting advantage over his first 8 years, even though 1991, 1994, and 1995 were all shortened years. That could make a difference. Albert obviously has a major advantage in fielding (even played a solid 3B one season) and a moderate baserunning advantage.

Through 8 seasons, do Albert's fielding/baserunning advantages outweigh Thomas' hitting (mostly through higher BB/OB%) numbers? Maybe not.

Albert is younger and more athletic, and not DH destined like Thomas was. As long as Pujols' elbow doesn't give way, I would bet his career will be better than Thomas'. However, that elbow is a big "if". One thing we can all agree on is: there is no way that Albert's first 8 years is more productive than Thomas' whole career. That is absurdity.

[Cougar]

One thing we can all agree on is: there is no way that Albert's first 8 years is more productive than Thomas' whole career. That is absurdity.

All due respect...who said that? I didn't say that. This is an absurd straw man.

[STLCards2]

All due respect...who said that? I didn't say that. This is an absurd straw man.

Notice I said that Albert not being better through 8 years than Thomas over 20 years is "something we can all agree with." I am pretty sure you fall somewhere into the "all" category.

I never claimed you or anybody else said that. I was saying I agreed with the common notion that that wasn't true- and if someone, somewhere were to diagree with that, it would be absurd. I am sure you agree with that statement. Why so defensive?

[J W]

It might not be the best argument, but Thomas is also seen as "the clean hitter" amongst the steroid-riddled sluggers of the 1990s. This was helped by his up-front attitude in interviews and in front of congress. Pujols meanwhile has been suspected of use though if I recall correctly, there has yet to be evidence against him.

Speaking of steroids... it isn't a Hall of Fame case but it is regarding historical placement... Greg Maddux tying Roger Clemens in career wins (354) has pretty much cemented him as the #1 pitcher of his generation, contrary to popular belief prior to Clemens' problems.

This was far from the case early in the season, but Roy Oswalt is now 15-9 with a 3.54 ERA (120 ERA+). He is age 30 with 127 career wins and a 140 ERA+, much like Halladay. He is also creeping into the Gray Ink picture for 2008 with his back-to-back complete game shutouts.

[Cougar]

Notice I said that Albert not being better through 8 years than Thomas over 20 years is "something we can all agree with." I am pretty sure you fall somewhere into the "all" category.

I never claimed you or anybody else said that. I was saying I agreed with the common notion that that wasn't true- and if someone, somewhere were to diagree with that, it would be absurd. I am sure you agree with that statement. Why so defensive?

The fact that it was said seemed to imply that someone thought that it was necessary to say.

Since I stood up for Pujols before, I got a little snappy, perhaps. Sorry.

It's been a bad Monday.

[STLCards2]

It might not be the best argument, but Thomas is also seen as "the clean hitter" amongst the steroid-riddled sluggers of the 1990s. This was helped by his up-front attitude in interviews and in front of congress. Pujols meanwhile has been suspected of use though if I recall correctly, there has yet to be evidence against him.




The only suspectedness so far was in the Grimsley report (remember the trainer thing?) and the Mitchel report. Niether included his name even one time. That doesn't mean he isn't roiding, but there has not been a single thread of evidence or rumor about Pujols outside of these two erronous reports, in which the media leaks all apologized.

For a we know, Thomas could have been using too. just because he is "seen as clean" doesn't mean he is. Since there is no evidence for either, it is really a mute point.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I dont know, Id personally take Thomas' best 8 seasons over Pujols' career so far. I think people tend to think of Thomas as a guy who always gets injured, and forget how good he used to be . I dont hear people calling Albert the black Ted Williams. The Hispanic Jimmie Foxx? Maybe. But we have to see how the rest of his career turns out.

Ummm...maybe because Albert isn't black? :rofl: Sorry, I couldn't resist. The one key difference between Thomas and Pujols as hitters is that that Thomas drew 100+ walks every year in his prime. Through age 28 Thomas had six 100+ walk seasons. Pujols has yet to do it even once. Though with 95 BBs this season he should have his first 100 walk season.

[BlueBlood]

Is that supposed to be a knock agaiinst Rice, or against the 'win shares' system?

Why do people keep bringing up this stat, as if anyone actually uses it to determine someone's hall worthiness? I havent even seen it used anywhere except this board. Im not saying it's worthless, but one unproven, flawed, experimental stat in and of itself is hardly 'proof' of someone's greatness, or of one player's superiority to another. It might be ok in support of a greater agrument, but to say' well this guy has this many career win shares, and had a peak of this many win shares' as the entire case doesnt mean a thing as far as Im concerned. And it probably means even less to the guys who actually do the voting. One can even see how flawed it is by looking at the above list. Nobody in their right mind puts Sheffield over Thomas, Griffey, or Maddux. Luis Gonzalez isnt even close to being a borderline hall of famer, yet there he is among fist ballot locks.

That said, you dont need it to know that Pujols is a hall lock, as soon as he gets 10 seasons under his belt. Hes the new Frank Thomas, but on a slightly lesser scale. But to sit there and say hes had more value in 8 years than Rice had in 15 is just stupid. To me it just shows how bad the stat is.

For one thing, Win Shares has had a tremendous effect already on Cooperstown. Look no further than the election of George Davis which was helped by Bill James' data or the upcoming pre-1943 ballot which mostly lists players that were proven to be the most, or one of the most, worthy at their positions via Win Shares.

Secondly, let's take the offensive production values of Pujols & Rice and multiply them by their number of full seasons.

For Rice, I count about 14 full seasons at a 128 OPS+...note that this gives extra credit as he's definitely still under 14 full. I could look up Paul's season counts but I'm lazy...

14 x 28 (128 OPS+ is 28% better than league average) = 392 above the average player

For Pujols, I count 8 full seasons at a 170 clip.

8 x 70 (170 OPS+ is 70% better than league average) = 560 above the average player

This of course doesn't take into account fielding which Rice would get close to twice as much credit for by playing 6 more seasons.

All I did here was use a simple stat that adds together OBP and SLG percentage and adjusts it for the home parks of the given players. Pujols has definitely been more productive already than Jim Rice. If Pujols were to be out of baseball after ten seasons, his induction would be looked at almost universally as a better choice than Jim Rice.

As for Luis Gonzalez, his career value and peak aren't even close to amazing at his position. Outfielders will naturally have more career value than infielders but that doesn't make him worthy. We don't go down the list and hand out plaques based on career WS totals. The quality of play at your peak and the position you played at are significant determinants. Luis via James's win share ranking wouldn't be a Top 20 player at his position and probably isn't even top 30 at this stage.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Albert Pujols has posted 8 seasons now which, in and of themselves, qualify him for the HOF.

Pujols played hurt all year this year, yet posted his best offensive season to date.

I've wondered in the past if Albert Pujols was older than his stated age; very few players start their careers as auspiciously as Albert did at age 21. I'm no longer a skeptic; Pujols' career is consistent with someone who is that great at age 21, and players as great at age 21 as Albert was often turn out to be the greatest of the great.

[Brad Harris]

For one thing, Win Shares has had a tremendous effect already on Cooperstown. Look no further than the election of George Davis which was helped by Bill James' data or the upcoming pre-1943 ballot which mostly lists players that were proven to be the most, or one of the most, worthy at their positions via Win Shares.
Respectfully, I have to disagree strongly with this statement. While win shares (and Bill James more generally) has had an impact on how many fans examine the issue of who is and isn't worthy of Hall admission, the BBWAA hasn't been infiltrated by that kind of critical thinking to nearly the same extent as the general baseball public.

George Davis was elected by the Veterans Committee in 1996. You're telling me that Bob Broeg, Stan Musial, Yogi Berra and Ted Williams read Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame two years earlier? Highly doubtful, amigo. Nevermind that Davis was elected five years prior to the publication of win shares. The guys on the pre-1943 ballot are among the more popular candidates (as voted on by living Hall of Famers) from the 2003, 2005 and 2007 Veterans Committee elections. No surprise since the same Historical Overview Committee which assembled those ballots did so this time. And guys like Tracy Ringolsby aren't exactly known as being particularly fond of James or well versed in his work. It's an interesting supposition you make, but I'd like to see just a single article by anyone on the HOC where they even mention win shares in an objective or positive light before buying into this contention. Hal McCoy doesn't keep a copy of the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract on his desk.

While James has certainly helped shape the public debate (e.g. Biggio's 35th all-time placement started the first serious discussion, outside of Texas, of him as a Hall candidate), I have yet to see evidence that he's infiltrated the ranks of the voters. At least until the BBWAA extends to Keith Law and Rob Neyer the same courtesy it extended to Jayson Stark and Buster Olney, I can't begin to believe its voters are open to James' ideas or those influenced by them.

[jalbright]

James does have a public that is dedicated, and they are influential enough to have an effect on the discussion. That said, James' disciples are more apt to be able to bring a guy into the spotlight than to actually get him elected, at least presently. I think the James/Baseball Prospectus/similar minded group is a movement that has taken root, and whose influence will grow, though.

[BlueBlood]

Classic made some solid points. The other night, I was looking around on information concerning the 10 pre-1943 candidates and noticed that Joe Gordon actually had a lot of All Star game berths and World Series play, so a lot of these candidates actually have the typical HOF standards ink that you'd expect. In other words, players like Gordon that do well via James's metric also have these accessory bonuses rooting for them that appeal to the less sabermetically inclined.

Still, Wes Ferrell on the ballot? With that ERA? You can't tell me that the work of modern statisticians didn't play into that selection.

[Mike90]

Is that supposed to be a knock agaiinst Rice, or against the 'win shares' system?

It's a knock against Rice.

One can even see how flawed it is by looking at the above list. Nobody in their right mind puts Sheffield over Thomas, Griffey, or Maddux.

So you're going to completely discount win shares because Sheffield has 0.5% more career win shares than Frank Thomas? Win Shares are a counting stat so it makes sense that Sheffield would have an awesome amount of career win shares because his counting numbers - 497 HRs, 425 2Bs, 1586 Runs, 1629 RBI playing most of his career in pitchers parks - are awesome. I consider Thomas to be a better player than Sheffield because Thomas' peak seasons were epic, and Sheffield's peak seasons, while great, were not on the same level as Thomas'.

Sheffield is better than Griffey. From a PR standpoint, I would take Griffey, but if I wanted to win as many baseball games as possible, I would take Sheffield. This is not meant as a putdown on Griffey because he is a truly great player. Sheffield is slightly better.

Sheffield is overlooked when discussing great players because he has a rep for surliness and treating people like crap, he's played for 7 different teams (possibly related to his personality), and the whole steroids thing. If you want to keep him out of the hall because of the steroids, fine, but his numbers are without a doubt HOF worthy.

I think one of Win Shares' flaws is that it tends to underrate starting pitchers. IMO, Maddux has more career value than Sheffield despite having about 30 less career win shares.

But to sit there and say hes had more value in 8 years than Rice had in 15 is just stupid. To me it just shows how bad the stat is.

Win Shares is not a perfect stat, but it is a very useful tool for sorting out candidates. 282 win shares is pretty marginal for a hall of famer. Rice was outstanding during his peak so he has a case for the Hall, but I don't think it's a very good one. At Fenway Park, he hit .320/.374/.546 with 802 RBI. On the road, he hit .277/.330/.459 with 649 RBI in about 75 more at-bats. Would Rice have been "the most feared hitter in baseball" if he hadn't played half of his games at Fenway?

Rice was a very good player playing in an unusual context so his superficial numbers made him look better than he really was.

[PVNICK]

It's hard to build a good W-L record when the Mets bullpen blows 7 wins for you. His record should be more like 16-5.



I have to disagree with this one. He's blown a lot of saves this year and has lost a notable amount of velocity on his fast ball. He's also injured. I think the end is near for Wagner (at least as a closer).
Wow!! Do you have a crystal ball??? (the quote was dated 8/11/08)

[Paul Wendt]

For one thing, Win Shares has had a tremendous effect already on Cooperstown. Look no further than the election of George Davis which was helped by Bill James' data
Using the "Linear Weights" rating published in The Hidden Game of Baseball, but extending the database back before 1900 or so (which had remained hidden), George Davis was player #19t in Total Baseball 1 (1989).

For Rice, I count about 14 full seasons at a 128 OPS+...note that this gives extra credit as he's definitely still under 14 full. I could look up Paul's season counts but I'm lazy...
That is a reference to the big table of "Data available" next door --free download this week (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78026). The first column gives full seasons 1871-2006. (I use full seasons almost exclusively for fielding, commonly for time fielding one particular fielding position. Some of that including everyone's first fielding position is also in the table.)

But Rice and Pujols have played only 162-game schedules, with only one shortened season between them. Divide their current games played by 162, add about 0.3 to Rice for 1981, and you have a good measure of their careers in full seasons, all roles. Pujols gets credit up to last night's games if the daily update at baseball-reference is working.

[Mike90]

Mussina is currently 18-9 with two starts left. I'm hoping he wins his 19th and then pitches well in his last start but gets the no-decision. I root for Mussina, but I'm hoping he becomes the only hall of fame starter without at least one 20-win season.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Mussina is currently 18-9 with two starts left. I'm hoping he wins his 19th and then pitches well in his last start but gets the no-decision. I root for Mussina, but I'm hoping he becomes the only hall of fame starter without at least one 20-win season.

Why? :shrug: So it can really annoy BravesFan1984? :rofl:

[Mike90]

Why? :shrug: So it can really annoy BravesFan1984? :rofl:

I just want there to be a hall of famer without a 20-win season so that inane argument - not enough 20-win seasons - isn't used as much. Annoying BravesFan1984 would be a bonus. :rofl:

[Brad Harris]

I just want there to be a hall of famer without a 20-win season so that inane argument - not enough 20-win seasons - isn't used as much. Annoying BravesFan1984 would be a bonus. :rofl:
You, sir, just got yourself an friend invite for that. :highfive:

[jjpm74]

I hope this is just an unfounded rumor, but I heard on the Mike Fonseca show that Mike Mussina plans to announce his retirement at the end of this season. I really can't see someone retiring that close to 300 wins and coming off a year like he's had. Either way, I hope it has no impact on his eventual election if he does hang it up.

[leecemark]

--I think it might be a boost to his chances. Going out with a big season should give voters a good feeling about him in 5 years. There is at least as much chance - and maybe more - that 2009 Mussina would look like the 2007bum and not the 2008 All Star.

[lyrical]

I hope this is just an unfounded rumor, but I heard on the Mike Fonseca show that Mike Mussina plans to announce his retirement at the end of this season. I really can't see someone retiring that close to 300 wins and coming off a year like he's had. Either way, I hope it has no impact on his eventual election if he does hang it up.
Moose declared his intentions of pitching next year after his start on Thursday: http://www.northjersey.com/sports/Moose_has_20-20_vision.html
"I don't know if I can throw out 18 wins again next year, but I'd sure like to take a shot at it somewhere, and hopefully these guys will give me a chance," Mussina said, after posting his 18th victory in the Yankees' 9-2 win.
He also told Sweeni Murti on WFAN that once he got to 280 victories, he'd feel obligated to go for 300.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

With 5 games left to play on the schedule, its plain to see which HOF potential players has helped or hurt their HOF chances this season. Here's my list of who did what (in no particular order):

Players Helping their chances

Johnny Damon - Very solid season this year. Batting over .300 will good power and solid stolen base %. Slugging nearly .850 which is excellent for a leadoff hitter, especially at age 34. Another consistent, quality season from Damon. I have him as the 3rd best leadoff man in baseball this year, behind Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez.

Mike Mussina - He was a tweener to me before this year because of the relatively high ERA. His great win % has always been part & parcel with good run support. But at age 39 this year, he turned back the clock and became the staff ace; he really showed why he is a superb pitcher. No doubt in my mind he gets in now.

Albert Pujols - The only thing standing in his way is lack of longevity. But with a probable MVP award, he's a lock with 10 years ML service.

Aramis Ramirez - Starting to put a string of high quality seasons together at an unrepresented position; and he has a solid glove to boot. The only concern is this is the second consecutive year his offensive HOME numbers are are ridiculously better than his AWAY numbers (1.040 OPS home; .724 OPS away). The home/away disparity is one of the biggest arguments against Ron Santo getting in.

Roy Halladay - Starting to garner serious consideration after yet another high quality season. Probably will finish runner up to Cliff Lee this year. The thing you have to love is he pitches more innings than almost anybody, and has 8 CG's. He obviously needs a few more quality seasons but he shows no signs of slowing down.

Carlos Delgado - Put together an outstanding second half and has been a force again at the plate. Because of the generation he hits in, he needed a coupe more excellent season to have a chance and he's delivered. His numbers are starting to get too big to ignore now.


Players Hurting their chances

David Ortiz - After five just-a-notch-or-two below historic seasons, Ortiz power numbers took a semi-dramatic step back this year. His OPS of .870 is 180 points lower than his 2007 mark. He bat speed looks noticably slower this year, although he's fought injury. Still, considering he's a DH, he needs to pick it up a notch again next year to get back on a HOF course.

Andruw Jones - For a centerfielder with his glove, and at 30, Andruw was most certainly on a HOF trajectory prior to this year. But considering how bad things have become, it's hard to see any hope for a revival going forward. Perhaps his attitude has played a role in this?? Anyway, he's done.

[Mike90]

With 5 games left to play on the schedule, its plain to see which HOF potential players has helped or hurt their HOF chances this season. Here's my list of who did what (in no particular order):

Players Helping their chances

Johnny Damon - Very solid season this year. Batting over .300 will good power and solid stolen base %. Slugging nearly .850 which is excellent for a leadoff hitter, especially at age 34. Another consistent, quality season from Damon. I have him as the 3rd best leadoff man in baseball this year, behind Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez.

Mike Mussina - He was a tweener to me before this year because of the relatively high ERA. His great win % has always been part & parcel with good run support. But at age 39 this year, he turned back the clock and became the staff ace; he really showed why he is a superb pitcher. No doubt in my mind he gets in now.

Albert Pujols - The only thing standing in his way is lack of longevity. But with a probable MVP award, he's a lock with 10 years ML service.

Aramis Ramirez - Starting to put a string of high quality seasons together at an unrepresented position; and he has a solid glove to boot. The only concern is this is the second consecutive year his offensive HOME numbers are are ridiculously better than his AWAY numbers (1.040 OPS home; .724 OPS away). The home/away disparity is one of the biggest arguments against Ron Santo getting in.

Roy Halladay - Starting to garner serious consideration after yet another high quality season. Probably will finish runner up to Cliff Lee this year. The thing you have to love is he pitches more innings than almost anybody, and has 8 CG's. He obviously needs a few more quality seasons but he shows no signs of slowing down.

Carlos Delgado - Put together an outstanding second half and has been a force again at the plate. Because of the generation he hits in, he needed a coupe more excellent season to have a chance and he's delivered. His numbers are starting to get too big to ignore now.


Players Hurting their chances

David Ortiz - After five just-a-notch-or-two below historic seasons, Ortiz power numbers took a semi-dramatic step back this year. His OPS of .870 is 180 points lower than his 2007 mark. He bat speed looks noticably slower this year, although he's fought injury. Still, considering he's a DH, he needs to pick it up a notch again next year to get back on a HOF course.

Andruw Jones - For a centerfielder with his glove, and at 30, Andruw was most certainly on a HOF trajectory prior to this year. But considering how bad things have become, it's hard to see any hope for a revival going forward. Perhaps his attitude has played a role in this?? Anyway, he's done.

Agree with everything you said and want to add a few more.
Players Helping Themselves:

- Joe Mauer I'm hoping he wins his 2nd batting title. Also top 10 in OBP (.417, 2nd), OPS (.936, 7th), walks (82, 7th), and runs scored (96, 9th).

- Justin Morneau former (undeserved) MVP has 128 RBI. Sportswriters love RBI

- K-Rod 60 saves catches a lot of attention even though it's an overrated stat. Already has over 200 career saves, has led the league 3 times, and has the postseason heroics from 2002. His best seasons were still '04 and '06.

- Brandon Webb Having his 1st 20-win season and is probably going to win his 2nd Cy Young even though Lincecum is more deserving.

- Chipper Jones Has missed 33 games but will probably win his 1st batting title and OBP title.

- Carlos Beltran His 8th 100-RBI season and 7th 100-Run season. Slightly improved his OBP and SLG. Huge plus if Mets make playoffs and Beltran plays a key role over these last few games.

Players Hurting Themselves:

- Barry Zito Remember that during his stay in Oakland, Zito was 102-63 (.618 WP%) with a Cy Young and 124 ERA+. He's been pitching better lately.

- Mark Mulder Unfair to say because he's been injured, but it's true. He won a total of 6 games since 2005.

- Chris Carpenter I know he's injured. Time is running out for him to make a HOF case. He has only 100 wins at 33 years old with 4.12 ERA. Two terrific seasons aren't enough for the Hall.

- Gary Sheffield His .223 BA is ugly. This season has made his top comparable go from Bagwell to McGriff. That's probably not a good thing. His stats need to be beyond reproach to overcome the personality and steroid issues.

- Jason Giambi Neither thong nor mustache helped. His BA, OBP, and SLG all dropped, and he failed to reach the 100-RBI mark or 100-Run mark.

[Cougar]

Two great posts. I'll add a few names and comment on some already mentioned.

Carlos Beltran is the player everyone thought Andruw Jones was.

Mark Teixiera has had another stellar season -- he ought to sue Justin Morneau to get the props that are rightfully his.

Being a little hard on Jason Giambi -- yes, his rate stats are down, but he still slugged over .500, had an OBP 40 pts over league average, drive in 94 runs with a few games to go, hit 31 HR with a few games to go, and is within 5 HR of 400 (a milestone that at least used to matter a lot) with a few games to go. He also played over 100 games in the field, and showed he could be adequate out there; the NL is an option for him now.

Gary Sheffield at this writing is 3 HR from 500. He could make it with a hot week, but probably not. If not, it will be interesting to see who is willing to take on a 40 year old with a bad attitude who apparently can't play the field any more , but who's within fairly easy reach of a big milestone. It reminds me of Fred McGriff a few years back, but he was 9 away going into the season...a lot farther. He hit two more before the league realized he couldn't catch up with a fastball in the 90's anymore, and the Devil Rays cut him loose. Sheff isn't that bad off, but he's more of a pain in the neck.

Luis Castillo going into 2008 was building a Nellie Fox-like offensive resume, with a lot of steals and a good glove at 2b. 2008 was injury-riddled and generally disastrous -- bad fielding, poor hitting, a decline in power that didn't seem possible. It's unclear if he'll even be the Mets' starter next season. At best it's a major bump in the road; at worst his career is completely derailed.

Miguel Tejada hurt himself mostly off the field, by getting enmeshed in PED investigations and by having two years tacked onto his playing age. His season was subpar by his standards as well.

Omar Vizquel helped himself by becoming the all time leader in games played at SS, but hurt himself by not becoming the all-time leader in hits by a shortstop. The mark was all but conceded to him, but he had serious injuries and hit atrociously badly most of the season; he'll finish about 20 hits shy of Luis Aparicio, and it's not at all clear that he'll be on a ML roster next season.

This will be the first time since 2003 that Michael Young won't have 200 hits and bat .300. Missing those milestones hurts Young, who was quietly building a Garvey-esque resume as a Texas shortstop.

Jimmy Rollins hurt his case by coming back to Earth after his 2007 MVP campaign; that season now appears more like an outlier in a good but not great shortstops career than a great leap forward in Rollins' production.

On the other hand, Jamie Moyer helped his case by having one of the best seasons of his career at age 45, and looking as if he can keep this up until he's 50. What are we going to do with this guy if he gets 55-60 more wins and breaks all kinds of longevity records?

Scott Rolen had a mediocre, short season in Toronto, and looks like he may never return to the form that made him a credible HOF candidate a few years back. Still a great glove.

Lance Berkman had a remarkable first half where he looked like he might contend for a Triple Crown, and then faded in the second half. He still had an excellent season, his 10th; it can fairly be said that if Berkman keeps doing what he's doing into his late thirties, that will be a HOF resume.

Conversely, Roy Oswalt bounced back from a poor first half to have a very solid season, 16-10 at this writing. At age 30, he's on a HOF trajectory as well.

C.C. Sabathia has a Cy and 115 wins at the age of 27, and he had the splashiest half season in the NL since Randy Johnson about 10 years ago. He's still getting better; he's also possibly the best hitting pitcher of his generation. I rather hope he lands in the NL for that reason. (Mets?)

Pedro Martinez didn't hurt his HOF case because he's in, but it surely looks like his days as a useful starting pitcher are over. With Billy Wagner out for 2009, there are whispers that he might try to close next season!

Speaking of Wagner, he was poised to crack the exclusive (for now) 400 save club and enter the conversation of great modern closers with Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. Unless he mounts a remarkable comeback, he'll probably remain a half-step behind those two. Which still makes him easily the best left-handed closer of the modern era and possibly (probably) the best lefty reliever of all time.

Hoffman bounced back from a dreadful start to upgrade his season to mediocre; this helps him insofar as he avoids (for now) an ugly coda to his career. He is 14 innings short of 1000 at this writing; he'll obviously pick that up if he comes back next year

Luis Gonzalez helped himself by compiling for a season in Florida. He reached 350 HR, is 4 doubles short of being only the 15th player to reach 600, and is only 10 hits shy of 2600. He also avoided a public spat with team management for the first time in three seasons (so far as I know, anyway).

Poor Todd Helton looks like 1990-vintage Don Mattingly, when his back was really shot and he was trying to pull the ball with his arms only. His power seems to be gone, and at age 35 it may not return.

Brian Giles has a smattering of sabermetrically-minded backers, but any chance he had at the HOF vanished when he refused a trade to the Red Sox (or anywhere else...Tampa was interested too). It was confirmatory evidence for all the people who claimed he was less than the sum of his rate stats. He actually had a pretty good season, especially playing in that cavernous San Diego ballpark.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I intentionally didn't add the likes of Jermaine Dye, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Webb, Brian Giles, Michael Young, Mark Mulder?? etc because either they have no chance at the Hall or its too early in their careers to consider their Hall trajectories. Also, players like Chipper Jones and Trevor Hoffman are already in as far as Im concerned, so he neither helped nor hurt his chances this year.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Luis Castillo going into 2008 was building a Nellie Fox-like offensive resume, with a lot of steals and a good glove at 2b. 2008 was injury-riddled and generally disastrous -- bad fielding, poor hitting, a decline in power that didn't seem possible. It's unclear if he'll even be the Mets' starter next season. At best it's a major bump in the road; at worst his career is completely derailed.


With all due respect, I have no idea why you would ever include Luis Castillo in this discussion. He's as far away from being inducted as Felix Fermin or Rafael Belliard. Old school inductees in the Nellie Fox mode are never getting in the HOF again, as the standards after 90 some years have strengthened dramatically. Luis Castillo had a couple good years with the Marlins, but has been nothing more than an average 2b since 2003. His relatively high BA since this time is counteracted by average amount of walks, zero power, and poor SB % and declining overall SB's. His range in the field has taken a turn for the worst. From my understanding, Nellie Fox was a better fielder as well. Furthermore, Luis Castillo has played over 150 games only twice in his career.

IMO Nellie Fox was a poor induction and I find it extremely unlikely candidates of his pedigree will enter the Hall again unless they are Ozzie Smith in the field and have a Top-20 offensive stat like SB's, as Ozzie (21) did, to boot.

Great post otherwise.

[OleMissCub]

Carlos Zambrano is still only 27 and has 96 wins. The no-hitter helped add a bit to his resume this year.

[Cougar]

With all due respect, I have no idea why you would ever include Luis Castillo in this discussion. He's as far away from being inducted as Felix Fermin or Rafael Belliard. Old school inductees in the Nellie Fox mode are never getting in the HOF again, as the standards after 90 some years have strengthened dramatically. Luis Castillo had a couple good years with the Marlins, but has been nothing more than an average 2b since 2003. His relatively high BA since this time is counteracted by average amount of walks, zero power, and poor SB % and declining overall SB's. His range in the field has taken a turn for the worst. From my understanding, Nellie Fox was a better fielder as well. Furthermore, Luis Castillo has played over 150 games only twice in his career.

IMO Nellie Fox was a poor induction and I find it extremely unlikely candidates of his pedigree will enter the Hall again unless they are Ozzie Smith in the field and have a well above average offensive stat like SB's, as Ozzie did, to boot.

Great post otherwise.

If you look at the roster of people in the HOF, a middle infielder with over 2000 hits, a BA near .300, and a plus glove -- those guys get into the HOF. Castillo also has well over 300 SB and a 30+ game hit streak.

This thread is "Guys who helped (or hurt) their HOF chances". This isn't measuring deserving, necessarily, but guys who advanced or reduced their chances of actually getting in. Like it or not (and your opinion is shared by many), Castillo's got a shot.

You're a little hard on him, too...he doesn't walk a lot, but he takes a walk; he's not up there hacking. His range has dropped off precipitously in the last few seasons. His durability is poor, and his power is laughable.

The point of my including him, however, was 2008 was the first season where he was just awful...where he really couldn't stay on the field, his range dropped to the level of actually being poor, and most importantly, he couldn't hit his usual .300 or so. That derails his Fox-esque argument.

By the way, Nellie Fox wasn't just a better fielder, he was a legendary fielder, near Mazeroski's class...he probably had more range than Maz.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

If you look at the roster of people in the HOF, a middle infielder with over 2000 hits, a BA near .300, and a plus glove -- those guys get into the HOF. Castillo also has well over 300 SB and a 30+ game hit streak.

This thread is "Guys who helped (or hurt) their HOF chances". This isn't measuring deserving, necessarily, but guys who advanced or reduced their chances of actually getting in. Like it or not (and your opinion is shared by many), Castillo's got a shot.

You're a little hard on him, too...he doesn't walk a lot, but he takes a walk; he's not up there hacking. His range has dropped off precipitously in the last few seasons. His durability is poor, and his power is laughable.

The point of my including him, however, was 2008 was the first season where he was just awful...where he really couldn't stay on the field, his range dropped to the level of actually being poor, and most importantly, he couldn't hit his usual .300 or so. That derails his Fox-esque argument.

By the way, Nellie Fox wasn't just a better fielder, he was a legendary fielder, near Mazeroski's class...he probably had more range than Maz.

If you polled 100 people in this forum, I doubt 5 would say Luis Castillo was on a HOF track prior to this season. Yes, are a few middle infielders with 2000+ hits in the Hall, but the standard has changed and its been many years since a person of Nellie Fox's caliber has gotten in. And as you mention, Nellie Fox could be the best ever fielder at 2B while Castillo was never close. Just in Castillo's generation alone, I can think of 5 second basemen off the top of my head who are better: Chuck Knoblauch, Jeff Kent, Robbie Alomar, Lou Whitaker, Craig Biggio...

Luis Castillio was never on the path to contention, not in this generation of higher standards.

[Cougar]

If you polled 100 people in this forum, I doubt 5 would say Luis Castillo was on a HOF track prior to this season. Yes, are a few middle infielders with 2000+ hits in the Hall, but the standard has changed and its been many years since a person of Nellie Fox's caliber has gotten in. And as you mention, Nellie Fox could be the best ever fielder at 2B while Castillo was never close. Just in Castillo's generation alone, I can think of 5 second basemen off the top of my head who are better: Chuck Knoblauch, Jeff Kent, Robbie Alomar, Lou Whitaker, Craig Biggio...

Luis Castillio was never on the path to contention, not in this generation of higher standards.

The generation of higher standards? The same generation who just inducted Bruce Sutter?

Different standards; they aren't all higher.

Castillo may not have been conspicuously on a HOF path, but based on history, five or six more seasons at his established level going into 2008 would have gotten him a very hard look from Cooperstown, if only because his stats would have been so similar (at least superficially) with a number of inducted players.

Longevity is essential to this path...if 2008 is anything more than a complete aberration, his HOF chances are finished.

[Cougar]

There was a thread on Castillo a year ago: http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=62248&highlight=Luis+Castillo

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

The generation of higher standards? The same generation who just inducted Bruce Sutter?

Different standards; they aren't all higher.

Castillo may not have been conspicuously on a HOF path, but based on history, five or six more seasons at his established level going into 2008 would have gotten him a very hard look from Cooperstown, if only because his stats would have been so similar (at least superficially) with a number of inducted players.

Longevity is essential to this path...if 2008 is anything more than a complete aberration, his HOF chances are finished.

Yup, Sutter was a horrible pick, but it had more to do with his apparent invention of a pitch than it did his stats. If he hadn't been credited with the 'invention' of the split fingered fastball, he wouldn't have been enshrined.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Yup, Sutter was a horrible pick, but it had more to do with his apparent invention of a pitch than it did his stats. If he hadn't been credited with the 'invention' of the split fingered fastball, he wouldn't have been enshrined.

He was well-regarded as one of the top closers in baseball for nearly a decade. While the split finger helped, he's in because he was at the top in both season and career records when he retired.

[Walt Zink]

Players Helping their chances[/U][/B]

Aramis Ramirez - Starting to put a string of high quality seasons together at an unrepresented position; and he has a solid glove to boot. The only concern is this is the second consecutive year his offensive HOME numbers are are ridiculously better than his AWAY numbers (1.040 OPS home; .724 OPS away). The home/away disparity is one of the biggest arguments against Ron Santo getting in.

Players Hurting their chances

David Ortiz - After five just-a-notch-or-two below historic seasons, Ortiz power numbers took a semi-dramatic step back this year. His OPS of .870 is 180 points lower than his 2007 mark. He bat speed looks noticably slower this year, although he's fought injury. Still, considering he's a DH, he needs to pick it up a notch again next year to get back on a HOF course

agreed on aramis. he's manny's cousin, which not a lot of people seem to know. he's improved his defense IMMENSELY over the years. wade boggs was considered a liability at third when coming up, to put it in perspective. not saying he fields or even hits as well, but honing your defense and becoming a better all-around player i actually do respect. he's a guy everyone seems to know of, but never really pays attention to. he's only 30, up around 1400+ hits, near 250 home runs and 900 RBIs. given 4-5 more productive seasons, he could be in the conversation for sure.

david ortiz, however, i think suffers HOF votes because of his role as a DH more than anything else. i'm from boston, and have been a fan since my first game at fenway in '91, but even before this year i gave an EMPHATIC no to ortiz for the hall. granted he's only 32, but i don't foresee him getting past the 400 HR mark. this year, the knee wasn't fully healed to start off, and if you take out the horrid 3-for-43 start, he's batting .288, a point above his career average. he needs to get to well over 500 HR before i'd consider voting for him.

[OleMissCub]

agreed on aramis. he's manny's cousin, which not a lot of people seem to know. he's improved his defense IMMENSELY over the years. wade boggs was considered a liability at third when coming up, to put it in perspective. not saying he fields or even hits as well, but honing your defense and becoming a better all-around player i actually do respect. he's a guy everyone seems to know of, but never really pays attention to. he's only 30, up around 1400+ hits, near 250 home runs and 900 RBIs. given 4-5 more productive seasons, he could be in the conversation for sure.


Several things would help Aramis a ton. First, it'd be nice if he could win a gold glove. Most of us know that gold gloves are pretty lame, but voters still tend to like hearing "gold glover Aramis...". Second, being a part of a Cubs championship at some point would help tremendously. Third, having two or three seasons amongst the top 5 hitters in the NL would help. Personally, I think he definitely has some peak years ahead of him.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

He was well-regarded as one of the top closers in baseball for nearly a decade. While the split finger helped, he's in because he was at the top in both season and career records when he retired.

I disagree. Many closers had on par or better credentials than Sutter yet havent been inducted like Sutter has been. Dan Quisenberry, Kent Tekulve & Lee Smith come to mind. The thing that puts him over the top is that he invented a pitch.

[Mike90]

He was well-regarded as one of the top closers in baseball for nearly a decade. While the split finger helped, he's in because he was at the top in both season and career records when he retired.

Why Sutter and not Quisenberry? Over their careers, Quiz pitched one more inning in 13 more games. Quiz has a better actual ERA (2.76 to 2.83) and easily better ERA+ (146 to 136). Sutter's WHIP (1.140) is a little better than Quiz's (1.175), but Quiz gave up 18 less HRs.

Sutter's best finishes in Cy Young voting: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th
Quiz's best finishes in Cy Young voting: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, and 5th

Sutter's best finishes in MVP voting: 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 8th, and 20th
Quiz's best finishes in MVP voting: 3rd, 6th, 8th, 9th, and 11th

Sutter made it to the arbitrary 300-save mark, and Quiz didn't. I don't think there's much difference at all between them, except Sutter pitched a little earlier and hung around a little longer.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Why Sutter and not Quisenberry? Over their careers, Quiz pitched one more inning in 13 more games. Quiz has a better actual ERA (2.76 to 2.83) and easily better ERA+ (146 to 136). Sutter's WHIP (1.140) is a little better than Quiz's (1.175), but Quiz gave up 18 less HRs.

Sutter's best finishes in Cy Young voting: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th
Quiz's best finishes in Cy Young voting: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, and 5th

Sutter's best finishes in MVP voting: 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 8th, and 20th
Quiz's best finishes in MVP voting: 3rd, 6th, 8th, 9th, and 11th

Sutter made it to the arbitrary 300-save mark, and Quiz didn't. I don't think there's much difference at all between them, except Sutter pitched a little earlier and hung around a little longer.

That's it, Mike. Perception. Since Sutter had a longer career and had more saves (which we all know aren't exactly a telling stat) his HOF resume seems better.

Quiz deserved better, period. On the ballot and, sadly, in life. If Sutter is such a bad choice, wouldn't Quisenberry be not that much better?

[Walt Zink]

Several things would help Aramis a ton. First, it'd be nice if he could win a gold glove. Most of us know that gold gloves are pretty lame, but voters still tend to like hearing "gold glover Aramis...". Second, being a part of a Cubs championship at some point would help tremendously. Third, having two or three seasons amongst the top 5 hitters in the NL would help. Personally, I think he definitely has some peak years ahead of him.

agreed. but just like mike lowell suffered and only got one gold glove with rolen in the NL snatching them all up, it causes aramis to get overlooked, also. he's not at that level, nor am i saying he is, but the last 4 seasons, he had numbers that weren't that much worse than rolen's defensively. his F%age improved greatly starting with his first full season with the cubs, but he does make a few sort of lazy errors from time to time still.

personally, i hope he does break out and make a name for himself. definitely deserving IMO.

[henrich]

That's it, Mike. Perception. Since Sutter had a longer career and had more saves (which we all know aren't exactly a telling stat) his HOF resume seems better.

Quiz deserved better, period. On the ballot and, sadly, in life. If Sutter is such a bad choice, wouldn't Quisenberry be not that much better?

I have Sutter and Gossage way ahead of Quisenberry, they deserve their enshrinement on their merits alone, not just the "inventing" a pitch claim to fame. Quiz was good, Tekulve less so, but neither would make it if I had a vote. Lee Smith is better than all of them.

[willshad]

Agree with everything you said and want to add a few more.
Players Helping Themselves:

- Joe Mauer I'm hoping he wins his 2nd batting title. Also top 10 in OBP (.417, 2nd), OPS (.936, 7th), walks (82, 7th), and runs scored (96, 9th).

- Justin Morneau former (undeserved) MVP has 128 RBI. Sportswriters love RBI

- K-Rod 60 saves catches a lot of attention even though it's an overrated stat. Already has over 200 career saves, has led the league 3 times, and has the postseason heroics from 2002. His best seasons were still '04 and '06.

- Brandon Webb Having his 1st 20-win season and is probably going to win his 2nd Cy Young even though Lincecum is more deserving.

- Chipper Jones Has missed 33 games but will probably win his 1st batting title and OBP title.

- Carlos Beltran His 8th 100-RBI season and 7th 100-Run season. Slightly improved his OBP and SLG. Huge plus if Mets make playoffs and Beltran plays a key role over these last few games.

Players Hurting Themselves:

- Barry Zito Remember that during his stay in Oakland, Zito was 102-63 (.618 WP%) with a Cy Young and 124 ERA+. He's been pitching better lately.

- Mark Mulder Unfair to say because he's been injured, but it's true. He won a total of 6 games since 2005.

- Chris Carpenter I know he's injured. Time is running out for him to make a HOF case. He has only 100 wins at 33 years old with 4.12 ERA. Two terrific seasons aren't enough for the Hall.

- Gary Sheffield His .223 BA is ugly. This season has made his top comparable go from Bagwell to McGriff. That's probably not a good thing. His stats need to be beyond reproach to overcome the personality and steroid issues.

- Jason Giambi Neither thong nor mustache helped. His BA, OBP, and SLG all dropped, and he failed to reach the 100-RBI mark or 100-Run mark.


I dont see how you can say Delgado helped his chances, while Giambi hurt his. Their seasons were about equal. Both are past their prime sluggers who at this point are just padding their career totals. Giambi wont get in no matter what he does anyway, due to steroid issues. Oh and theres still games, left he may get to 100 RBI.

[lyrical]

Tim Hudson's elbow injury taking him out commission for a year definitely hurts his chances at an impressive number of wins for the Hall.

Andy Pettitte. Mitchell Report and career high in losses probably hurting his chances.

[OleMissCub]

Andy Pettitte. Mitchell Report and career high in losses probably hurting his chances.

IMO, Pettite is going to need like 275+ wins to get in. He's never won a Cy Young, his ERA is up near 4, and he's an admitted steroid user.

He reminds me a lot of Jack Morris and will probably end up with numbers near Morris (254 wins, 3.90).

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Tim Hudson's elbow injury taking him out commission for a year definitely hurts his chances at an impressive number of wins for the Hall.

Andy Pettitte. Mitchell Report and career high in losses probably hurting his chances.

Yes, very good candidates for the losers category amongst players on a legitimate HOF track.

[Domenic]

The two players that came immediately to mind are Chipper Jones and Mike Mussina.

Jones raised his BA to .310, OBP to .407, SLG to .548, and broke the 400 HR plateau. If he can hold on to the Batting Title (which I believe he qualifies for, correct me if I'm wrong), it will further an already stellar resume. In my mind, he is at or near the top of any list of great third basemen, and he is one of the best 'clean' of the 'Steroid Era.'

Mussina is having one of the better seasons of his career, pushing the memory of his horrific 2007 a bit out of sight. Further, he has continued to pad the cushion of 100+ wins over losses - every pitcher with one-hundred more wins than losses has been enshrined, to date. If he can win Sunday, he will also hit the 20-win benchmark for the first time in his career - which, in my mind, would make him a shoe-in.

[Mike90]

I dont see how you can say Delgado helped his chances, while Giambi hurt his. Their seasons were about equal. Both are past their prime sluggers who at this point are just padding their career totals. Giambi wont get in no matter what he does anyway, due to steroid issues. Oh and theres still games, left he may get to 100 RBI.

Giambi is going to be held to higher standards than Delgado because of the steroids thing. Also, Delgado will probably be mentioned in the MVP voting if the Mets make the playoffs because he had a lot of RBI in the 2nd half, although his 1st half sucked.

I guess Giambi could get to 100 RBI. He needs 5 in the last 5 games.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Giambi is going to be held to higher standards than Delgado because of the steroids thing. Also, Delgado will probably be mentioned in the MVP voting if the Mets make the playoffs because he had a lot of RBI in the 2nd half, although his 1st half sucked.

I guess Giambi could get to 100 RBI. He needs 5 in the last 5 games.


Giambi helped himself because he established himself as a guy who can still play 1B significantly above replacement level. He's pushed himself to 396 HRs; if he can play 4 more seasons, 500 HRs is quite likely.

Sheffield had a bad season, and he hurt his BA/OBP numbers. But he pushed himself to 497 HRs, and he's got enough in the tank to limp over 500. Had he been stuck at 485, it would be much different, but Sheffield will now get his 500, and he won't be the first 500 HR guy to be shut out of Cooperstown.

[Mike90]

Giambi helped himself because he established himself as a guy who can still play 1B significantly above replacement level. He's pushed himself to 396 HRs; if he can play 4 more seasons, 500 HRs is quite likely.

Sheffield had a bad season, and he hurt his BA/OBP numbers. But he pushed himself to 497 HRs, and he's got enough in the tank to limp over 500. Had he been stuck at 485, it would be much different, but Sheffield will now get his 500, and he won't be the first 500 HR guy to be shut out of Cooperstown.

The media are judging steroid users harshly. It's easy for me to believe that Sheffield and Giambi won't make the Hall even with their HOF-quality numbers. 500 HRs does not guarantee election if you're tainted with steroids; McGwire and his 583 HRs are still stuck at 23% in the voting.

[White Knight]

IMO, Pettite is going to need like 275+ wins to get in. He's never won a Cy Young, his ERA is up near 4, and he's an admitted steroid user.

He reminds me a lot of Jack Morris and will probably end up with numbers near Morris (254 wins, 3.90).

Admitted HGH user, big difference.

But I agree with the rest you said. He's going to need like 275 wins, if not more.

[OleMissCub]

Admitted HGH user, big difference.


What the hell's the difference?

[brett]

I have Sutter and Gossage way ahead of Quisenberry, they deserve their enshrinement on their merits alone, not just the "inventing" a pitch claim to fame. Quiz was good, Tekulve less so, but neither would make it if I had a vote. Lee Smith is better than all of them.

Quiz has a better relative ERA AND more innings than Sutter.

He also had more a) great and b) very good seasons.

Quiz had 10 years with an ERA+ better than 130, 7 above 150 and 2 above 200. He saved 35, 45, 44 when the record was 37.

Sutter had 6 years with an ERA+ above 130, 3 above 150 and 2 above 200.



The difference is that he bunched his together. If he had had 4 great years split up by 8 average ones like Sutter he'd have gotten more support.

[brett]

The guy who I think helped his chances the most this year was Jim Edmonds. When he fell off the planet early, I thought he had basically clearly fallen just short. With a great finish, and proving that he can still hit, he is right on the edge now.

[Mike90]

What the hell's the difference?

The voters are a lot less likely to vote for someone who used PEDs.

[White Knight]

What the hell's the difference?

HGH and steroids are a bigger difference than chimps and humans. Steroids dramaticly increase your testosterone to sky high levels. HGH is a growth hormone, and has less if any side effects. You also don't build muscle nearly as fast with HGH. Steroids are much more effective. Check out a good weight-lifting forum like Testosterone Nation for a better explanation.

[OleMissCub]

HGH and steroids are a bigger difference than chimps and humans. Steroids dramaticly increase your testosterone to sky high levels. HGH is a growth hormone, and has less if any side effects. You also don't build muscle nearly as fast with HGH. Steroids are much more effective. Check out a good weight-lifting forum like Testosterone Nation for a better explanation.

I understand what the clinical difference is, but from a baseball point of view, they both fall under the same crime don't they?

[rockin500]

I understand what the clinical difference is, but from a baseball point of view, they both fall under the same crime don't they?
yep, but just like there are varying degrees of assault or battery (and homicide), there are levels of PED cheating IMO.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Contrary to what someone said, I think Giambi has helped his HOF chances this season. I wasn't sure if he was going to bounce back from his horrendous '07, but he managed to hit 32 homers this season, boosting his career total to 396. His days of being an MVP contender are long over, but, at age 37, he's still a more than competent hitter. The steroid controversy won't help him in the HOF voting, but I think there are two reasons that he won't be treated as harshly as McGwire:

1. He admitted to using steroids and apologized.
2. He proved that he could still be an effective player after that.

There's no doubt in my mind that McGwire was an extremely effective player without steroids, but he didn't use steroids until later in his career and the controversy didn't erupt until after he retired, so he didn't have the chance to "prove it".

[Mike90]

Among active pitchers with less than 200 wins, Halladay is probably the 2nd most likely to make the Hall, behind Santana. In the past 7 seasons, Halladay has pitched 1471.3 innings (210 per season) with an ERA of 3.19 and Win-Loss record of 113-49 (.698 WP%). He's won a Cy Young and finished 3rd and 5th in two other seasons, and he's probably going to be 2nd this season.

This season has been huge for him: He got his 2nd 20-win season, and he leads the league in innings (246, 3rd time leading the league in this category), complete games (9, 4th time), shutouts (2, 2nd time), WHIP (1.053, 1st time) and K/BB ratio (5.28, 1st time). He's also 2nd in both ERA and wins and 3rd in Ks.

In his last 15 starts, Oswalt went 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA, 2 shutouts, and not a single unearned run. He is quietly putting together a Hall of Fame career. This season, which looked like a disppointment at first has definitely helped: 17-10, 3.54 ERA, 208 innings, 3.51 K/BB ratio. His career record is now 129-94 (.668 WP%) with a 3.13 ERA (39% better than park-adjusted league average).

[willshad]

Among active pitchers with less than 200 wins, Halladay is probably the 2nd most likely to make the Hall, behind Santana. In the past 7 seasons, Halladay has pitched 1471.3 innings (210 per season) with an ERA of 3.19 and Win-Loss record of 113-49 (.698 WP%). He's won a Cy Young and finished 3rd and 5th in two other seasons, and he's probably going to be 2nd this season.

This season has been huge for him: He got his 2nd 20-win season, and he leads the league in innings (246, 3rd time leading the league in this category), complete games (9, 4th time), shutouts (2, 2nd time), WHIP (1.053, 1st time) and K/BB ratio (5.28, 1st time). He's also 2nd in both ERA and wins and 3rd in Ks.

In his last 15 starts, Oswalt went 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA, 2 shutouts, and not a single unearned run. He is quietly putting together a Hall of Fame career. This season, which looked like a disppointment at first has definitely helped: 17-10, 3.54 ERA, 208 innings, 3.51 K/BB ratio. His career record is now 129-94 (.668 WP%) with a 3.13 ERA (39% better than park-adjusted league average).

At this point, it is hard to choose between Oswalt and Santana. Santana is younger by a year, but needs a couple more big win seasons ( he only has 2 seasons with more than 16 wins, and one 20 win season). They are VERY close...they are separated by one year in age, and a season of a 20-13 record, with about a 3.20 ERA. Halladay had a big year, but his injury years in 2004-2005 really hurt him. Hes obviously shown he can come back, but his lifetime ERA is still high for a hall of famer..especially considering he has yet to reach his decline years. Id rank Oswalt and Santana even, with Halladay a step behind.

[STLCards2]

At this point, it is hard to choose between Oswalt and Santana. Santana is younger by a year, but needs a couple more big win seasons ( he only has 2 seasons with more than 16 wins, and one 20 win season). They are VERY close. Halladay had a big year, but his injury years in 2004-2005 really hurt him. Hes obviously shown he can come back, but his lifetime ERA is still high for a hall of famer..especially considering he has yet to reach his decline years. Id rank Oswalt and Santana even, with Halladay a step behind.

Santana has had more "great" seasons than Oswalt. He should have 3 Cy Youngs already, and with any run support during the first four months of 2008, would be right with Lincecum for his 4th Cy. While Oswalt has been consistantly very, very good - his best seasons are just below Santana's best. Santana spending 2.5 years in the pen had hurt his IP totals, however. I would agree that Oswlt is ahead of Halladay in the HOF to be pecking order, but I wouldn't be suprised if Hallday doesn't pass him up.

Keep an eye on Webb too. He has been one of the top 3 NL pitchers each of the last three seasons, and has the best ERA+ of all of them. Has it ever been below 140? I know he was a little older when he started than the other three, but he has been great the past five seasons.

After Webb, Peavy and Sabbathia are on a decent path too.

If voters thought abut offense, Zambrano would be up there with those guys, but since they don't, he will be regarded as slighlty below these guys - unless he puts together a full season without any mental-breakdowns and/or helps the Cubs to win a W.S.

[OleMissCub]

If voters thought abut offense, Zambrano would be up there with those guys, but since they don't, he will be regarded as slighlty below these guys - unless he puts together a full season without any mental-breakdowns and/or helps the Cubs to win a W.S.

That's a good point. I'd be willing to bet that if he wasn't such a headcase, he'd probably have 15-20 more wins in his career.

[White Knight]

The media are judging steroid users harshly. It's easy for me to believe that Sheffield and Giambi won't make the Hall even with their HOF-quality numbers. 500 HRs does not guarantee election if you're tainted with steroids; McGwire and his 583 HRs are still stuck at 23% in the voting.

600 doesn't even guarantee election, even if you're merely suspected of steroids. I now believe Sosa isn't getting in. We'll see I guess.

[White Knight]

I understand what the clinical difference is, but from a baseball point of view, they both fall under the same crime don't they?

Somewhat. Both are banned. However, I think a HOF voter will look more harshly on a slugger who used steroids and had lots of HR's than a pitcher who used HGH twice because of injury. Apparently, HGH does help you heal quicker, and when Andy used it, he was indeed injured.

[White Knight]

Contrary to what someone said, I think Giambi has helped his HOF chances this season. I wasn't sure if he was going to bounce back from his horrendous '07, but he managed to hit 32 homers this season, boosting his career total to 396. His days of being an MVP contender are long over, but, at age 37, he's still a more than competent hitter. The steroid controversy won't help him in the HOF voting, but I think there are two reasons that he won't be treated as harshly as McGwire:

1. He admitted to using steroids and apologized.
2. He proved that he could still be an effective player after that.

There's no doubt in my mind that McGwire was an extremely effective player without steroids, but he didn't use steroids until later in his career and the controversy didn't erupt until after he retired, so he didn't have the chance to "prove it".

No way in hell Giambi deserves to go over Mac. All the steroids and weight training in the world couldn't (and didn't) make Giambi 1/10th the legendary HR hitter Mac was.

[Mike90]

48 HRs and 146 RBI definitely help Howard's case. However, if he gets the MVP over Pujols I'm going to break things.

In the past 3 seasons, Howard's hit 153 HRs and 431 RBI with a .277 BA. How many players have had more than 400 RBI over a 3-year period with a BA less than .300? I'm assuming only him and Griffey from '96 to '98.

[hudsonharden]

I'm sure it's been said before, but Mike Mussina really padded his chances this season.

[OleMissCub]

48 HRs and 146 RBI definitely help Howard's case. However, if he gets the MVP over Pujols I'm going to break things.

In the past 3 seasons, Howard's hit 153 HRs and 431 RBI with a .277 BA. How many players have had more than 400 RBI over a 3-year period with a BA less than .300? I'm assuming only him and Griffey from '96 to '98.

McGwire had 417 RBI batting .282, 97-99

Sosa had 418 batting .282, 97-99 (wow, him and mac almost identical in that regard)

Raffy had 391 batting .295, 99-01

Banks had 389 batting .296, 58-60

Tejada had 387 batting .299, 02-04

Buhner had 368 batting .258, 94-96

Giambi had 373 batting .287, 01-03

Canseco had 354 batting .268, 86-88

Fielder had 389 with a .260 BA, '90-'92

Tino had 381 batting .289, 96-98

Killebrew had 368 with a .267 BA, '69-'71

Maris had 352 batting .269 from 60-62

So, after all that, the answer to your question is that Mac and Sammy did it.

[White Knight]

In the past 3 seasons, Howard's hit 153 HRs and 431 RBI with a .277 BA.

That sounds like so much. What amazes me is the record. In a three year span, Lou Gehrig drove in 509 RBI. I don't think anyone will ever beat that!