Lars Anderson: Stay Put or Promote to Pawtucket?

[SoxFan68]

Lars Anderson has played 15 games for the Portland Seadogs and he struggled at first with quite a few K's in his first two games or so..but he's really turned the jets on just in time for the playoff "race". (Portland is 7 games back in the Eastern North League but still, if they get hot at the right time and Trenton slips up a bit, anything's possible)

In 15 games and 49 at bats with Portland he now has a .327 BA, 2 HR and 11 RBI...While he was with Lancaster in high A ball he had a .317 BA, 13 HR and 50 RBI, .411 OBP, .530 SLG and .941 OPS in 77 games and 306 at bats. So on the year he's batting .318 with 15 HR and 61 RBI.

It seems like Lars has without a doubt figured out pitching at the AA level...he's been absolutely great, homering twice in the last two games, going 4-9 and knocking in 5 RBI.

The thing is, I'm not sure how he would adjust to AAA pitching, which is much more refined than AA in my opinion. I'd rather keep him in Portland for the rest of the year, keep his confidence as high as ever, let him tear it up there and then promote him to AAA in 2009. He's only 20 years old right now in his second season of pro ball, after coming straight out of high school and has a swing that to me looks very similar to Carlos Delgado. I can't wait to see him continue to grow. I could see him as our future designated hitter replacing David Ortiz.

He also has the 5th highest OPS of a 20-year old player or younger in the Eastern League since 1992.

Nick Johnson - 1.042
Vladimir Guerrero - 1.041
Cliff Floyd - 1.012
Derek Jeter - 0.961
Lars Anderson - 0.941
Ryan Zimmerman - 0.899
Lastings Milledge - 0.879
Hanley Ramirez - 0.872
Joe Mauer - 0.848

This includes the horrible start to his AA stint as well. So assuming he plays the year out and performs like he has been in the past few weeks..Lars should stay around this spot or possibly even rise near Jeter-Floyd territory..I doubt he drops 100 OPS points, which would still leave him in the top 10 anyway. That's a nice group of players to be put with, he definitely has a big future ahead of him.

Minorleaguebaseball.com Page (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Lars%20Anderson&pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502249) <---- Stats for tonight's game in which he went 2-for-4 with a HR, 4 RBI, 3 Runs and a Walk aren't included yet but they should be by tomorrow.

[Williamsburg2599]

I don't the difference between AA and AAA is big enough to worry about. I think they should just wait till next year. Bring him to spring training and see what happens. No need to rush him so he can play a handful of games at Pawtucket.

[Westlake]

Doesn't really matter. He shouldn't and probably won't see any time in MLB until mid 2009 at the earliest.

[SoxFan68]

I don't the difference between AA and AAA is big enough to worry about. I think they should just wait till next year. Bring him to spring training and see what happens. No need to rush him so he can play a handful of games at Pawtucket.

The pitching is actually much better at the AAA level and there's more major league ready young pitchers as well veterans (29, 30 year olds) that know how to pitch and can beat a hitter without a 95 MPH fastball. In AA you have a lot of pitchers with control issues and really just generally raw stuff.

[Mike D.]

I don't see any reason to rush him up to AAA after only 15 games in AA. Give him a few times around the league, and see how he fares against pitchers the second time they see him in a season. Asking the kid to go from A ball to AAA in one season for no real reason doesn't make any sense to me.

Let him finish the season in Portland, and if he does well the rest of the way and in ST, have him open in Pawtucket and see how it goes from there. If he does well and a spot opens, he could be in the majors and contributing sometime in 2009.

[Williamsburg2599]

The pitching is actually much better at the AAA level and there's more major league ready young pitchers as well veterans (29, 30 year olds) that know how to pitch and can beat a hitter without a 95 MPH fastball. In AA you have a lot of pitchers with control issues and really just generally raw stuff.

I've heard minor leaguers call it a little better and more "crafty." AAA is pretty much a waiting room or final check for the Major leagues. Which is why AAA teams are usually within 100 miles of their parent club and why players can do mediocre in AAA and still get called up. Teams know what they have by the time the players get there. Regardless, 24 games in AAA or 24 games in AA isn't going to a very minimal impact on his career. I say keep him down simply because by the time he catches up to any differences in AA/AAA, the season will be pretty much over. So unless you REALLY want a Governor's cup, I say keep him down.

[Senor Octobre]

I'm as pumped for the Lars era as anyone, but Westlake is right, he can wait until mid-late '09 at the earliest.

[Imgran]

SSS.

We're talking 50 plate appearances, folks. No one gets either promoted or demoted on the strength of 50 PA's.

If he dominates Portland for the rest of the year he still starts next year in Portland. Just like Masterson and Bowden. Probably in line for a May promotion.

[Mike D.]

SSS.

We're talking 50 plate appearances, folks. No one gets either promoted or demoted on the strength of 50 PA's.

If he dominates Portland for the rest of the year he still starts next year in Portland. Just like Masterson and Bowden. Probably in line for a May promotion.

With how careful the Red Sox are not to rush guys, you're probably right. Portland until May, then up to Pawtucket (I can't wait!). Maybe a September calllup if he plays well.

The question is where he fits into the lineup. He's a 1b/dh, right? Can he play the OF? Bay is signed next year, but not beyond. Lowell is signed through what, 2010? Does Lars play LF in 2010, or wait until Lowell is gone and play first, with Youk moving to third?

[Imgran]

Don't demean Lars' defense by throwing in the DH. His glove is just fine thank you. As near as I can tell he's a pure 1B though.

And yes, Lars will only start at the expense of Youk or Lowell (with Youk to third). Another reason not to worry too much about taking your time with the guy. He'll probably debuit as an injury replacement next year and spend some time on the shuttle until Lowell's contract expires. Sort of the Lowrie plan.

For the record -- don't be too surprised to see Carter morph into a full-time LF again if he can't make the bench out of spring training as insurance for Papi and Bay.

[SoxFan68]

Yeah I generally agree with you guys here but Portland plays a full season and if they make the playoffs, and Lars has a good showing, I think he can without a doubt start 2009 in AAA. But I think a May callup as suggested here would be a better idea. I'm just really excited about Lars, I think he's going to be a player.

I'm not really sure on David Ortiz's contract status but I think his age and his injuries speak for themselves. I don't think he's back after his contract expires (which I believe is 2010) as a full-time player if at all.

I just think we have to move on once Mike Lowell and Ortiz leave. Our future at 1B/3B/DH is extremely bright and if Lars is major league ready in 2010, we shouldn't hold him back just because we're thankful for what Ortiz and Lowell did for us in terms of bringing us World Series. Both have health problems and are going to decline big time in 2010.

Lars on the Lowrie plan sounds good to me. Let him play in 2009 if injuries arise in June/July and then bring him up as a full-time player in 2010, which I'm sure the Sox will do with Lowrie in 2009. I have a feeling Lugo's contract, which will be expiring that year is just going to get eaten up and he's gone. No value as a player, no trade value on the open market. What's the point?

EDIT: Also, I've been following the minor leaguers a little too closely this year so if you guys don't mind I'll post how Anderson does every game the Sea Dogs have and give you updates on his progress.

[SoxFan68]

Lars Anderson hit his 3rd home run in 3 games. He's so far 2-2 on the night with an RBI. According to the radio broadcast it was a "moonshot" and a "no doubter"

[mg050369]

15 games does not make a career make. With only about a month left in the season, I think he stays at Portland and starts '09 there with the opportunity to move up to AAA and a cup of coffee with the big club.

[Imgran]

Very possible that in 3 years, we have an infield from left to right of Lowrie, Navarro, Pedroia, Anderson. Bit light on power but I'd take that.

[mg050369]

It's really too far off to think about but it's still fun to speculate. Imagine Lowrie sticking at SS with Youk moving to 3B and the infield looks much more potent.

[Imgran]

It's really too far off to think about but it's still fun to speculate. Imagine Lowrie sticking at SS with Youk moving to 3B and the infield looks much more potent.


It does, except that Youk iwll be going on 34...

[Jager]

I'm as pumped for the Lars era as anyone, but Westlake is right, he can wait until mid-late '09 at the earliest.



Since there aren't that many more games in the season, I say he stays in AA. If he gets up to AAA and struggles, that's not a good way to end the season. You'd rather have him kill the ball at AA going into the offseason.

[mg050369]

Youk will turn 34 during '13 spring training. Although I think he could certainly be an option at the hot corner between now and then, his true calling seems to be on the other side of the diamond.

Getting back into the initial discussion, I generally don't start thinking about how prospects fit into the future until they have extended success at AA or above. Despite early success, I don't think Lars is quite there but should be in that mix in '09 if he continues. A lot can still happen in the next year or two (trades, injuries, poor performance). Assuming Lars continually develops and the roster doesn't change, I would hope and expect the following:

'08 - Lars finishes at AA.
'09 - Has an opportunity to start at AAA. After Memorial Day, he would get the call if Youk, Lowell or Ortiz go on the DL.
'10 - Eased into the lineup, either through starting at AAA or stealing AB's from Lowell, Youk and Ortiz.
'11 - Lowell walks, replaced by Youk, Lowrie, free agent or trade. Also Youk could leave as a free agent and/or team doesn't pick up the '11 option on Ortiz. Lars takes over full time at 1B or DH.

There is lots of real estate between now and then though. My best case scearnio is make him a '09 September call up and he becomes a '10 factor and force.

[SoxFan68]

Today Anderson hit a grand slam for his 5th home run at the AA level. He went 2-5 with 4 RBI, 3 runs and a HR.

.333 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI, .427 OBP, .617 SLG, 1.044 OPS

Absolute beast (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Anderson%20%201B&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502249)

He also has the highest OPS of a 20-year old player or younger in the Eastern League since 1992.

Lars Anderson - 1.044
Nick Johnson - 1.042
Vladimir Guerrero - 1.041
Cliff Floyd - 1.012
Derek Jeter - 0.961
Ryan Zimmerman - 0.899
Lastings Milledge - 0.879
Hanley Ramirez - 0.872
Joe Mauer - 0.848

Still a bit more baseball to play..but he's absolutely turning heads right now.

[Imgran]

I really don't think it'll take until 2010 for Anderson to force his way in, even with strong players at 1B and 3B. Lowell will be aging and probably in his second half decline about the same time Lars is dominating AAA. He'll be up at least once next year and it'll be really hard to convince people why he'd need to go back down unless Lowell absolutely put on a show all year.

[SoxFan68]

Yeah I don't see any reason to hold him back. In his first 10 games he was batting .185 and in his last 14 games he's batting .415 at the AA level. I'd like to see what he can do at the AAA level because it seems like at every level he's able to quickly adjust and become a dominant player almost immediately. But I would keep him at AA until 2009 just to keep his confidence high. He's only 20 years old..sky's the limit for Anderson.

[sharrock]

I really don't think it'll take until 2010 for Anderson to force his way in, even with strong players at 1B and 3B. Lowell will be aging and probably in his second half decline about the same time Lars is dominating AAA. He'll be up at least once next year and it'll be really hard to convince people why he'd need to go back down unless Lowell absolutely put on a show all year.

This is the type of problem I'd love to have. I'm all for the infield problems involving where to play all the good hitters.

Its actually been a while since the Sox had a big hitter force playing time.

[SoxFan68]

Lars went 4-for-4 tonight...he had a double, 3 singles and a walk

AA Level
.365 BA, .455 OBP, .647 SLG, 1.102 OPS
17 singles, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 5 HR in 101 PA and 85 AB

Highest Eastern League OPS since 1992 for 20 and under hitters

Lars Anderson - 1.102
Nick Johnson - 1.042
Vladimir Guerrero - 1.041
Cliff Floyd - 1.012
Derek Jeter - 0.961
Ryan Zimmerman - 0.899
Lastings Milledge - 0.879
Hanley Ramirez - 0.872
Joe Mauer - 0.848

[Imgran]

Lars went 4-for-4 tonight...he had a double, 3 singles and a walk

AA Level
.365 BA, .455 OBP, .647 SLG, 1.102 OPS
17 singles, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 5 HR in 101 PA and 85 AB

Highest Eastern League OPS since 1992 for 20 and under hitters

Lars Anderson - 1.102
Nick Johnson - 1.042
Vladimir Guerrero - 1.041
Cliff Floyd - 1.012
Derek Jeter - 0.961
Ryan Zimmerman - 0.899
Lastings Milledge - 0.879
Hanley Ramirez - 0.872
Joe Mauer - 0.848


That would be the sound of Lars knocking on the door -- with a battering ram.

[bballfan101]

Lars Anderson is a stud. The Redsox nation is lucky to have him. He played against us during summer ball when he played with the EDH vipers. When he does get the call up to the Majors he will be a big impact.

[mg050369]

Let's not get too excited. He is tearing up AA ball but there is still a big difference between AA and the bigs.

At 50 AB's, I said that I generally don't start thinking about how a prospect fits into the future until they have had prolonged success at AA or above. At 100 PAs, the sample size is still on the small side but impressive and it's tough not to think about how Lars fits into their long term plans at this point.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

he'll play at AA this season and start there next season too...

[SoxFan68]

Let's not get too excited. He is tearing up AA ball but there is still a big difference between AA and the bigs.

At 50 AB's, I said that I generally don't start thinking about how a prospect fits into the future until they have had prolonged success at AA or above. At 100 PAs, the sample size is still on the small side but impressive and it's tough not to think about how Lars fits into their long term plans at this point.

So we shouldn't get excited about a 20 year old kid tearing up AA ball like only a few others at his age have in the history of the league?..All of which went on to become successful pros and some even stars like Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer and Vladimir Guerrero.

He's made adjustments very quickly at every level advancement he's made in his career as a professional. I'm not worried at all. He's going to continue to tear up Double A, then in early-mid 2009 he'll start to run the AAA level.

[Westlake]

Let's not get too excited. He is tearing up AA ball but there is still a big difference between AA and the bigs.

At 50 AB's, I said that I generally don't start thinking about how a prospect fits into the future until they have had prolonged success at AA or above. At 100 PAs, the sample size is still on the small side but impressive and it's tough not to think about how Lars fits into their long term plans at this point.

So 50ABs isn't important, but add 50 more and you start fitting people into longterm plans? That makes zero sense. There's no set # of ABs or games for anything.