The top 100 pitchers project round 8: Active pitchers

[jjpm74]

This group are active pitchers who's careers to this point qualify them for this project. Some like Moyer may be in their last year. Others may have another 15 to go.

The following pitchers will be the focus of this round. This round will be a vote for 10-15. I will provide links directly to their Baseball Reference pages for this group:

Armando Benitez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/benitar01.shtml)
Mark Buehrle (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/buehrma01.shtml)
Chris Carpenter (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml)
Bartolo Colon (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/colonba01.shtml)
Kelvim Escobar (http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/escobke01.shtml)
Shawn Estes (http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/estessh01.shtml)
John Garland (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garlajo01.shtml)
Freddy Garcia (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garcifr03.shtml)
Tom Glavine (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/glavito02.shtml)
Tom Gordon (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gordoto01.shtml)
Eddie Guardado (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/guarded01.shtml)
Roy Halladay (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hallaro01.shtml)
Mike Hampton (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hamptmi01.shtml)
Livan Hernandez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hernali01.shtml)
Trevor Hoffman (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hoffmtr01.shtml)
Tim Hudson (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hudsoti01.shtml)
Jason Isringhausen (http://www.baseball-reference.com/i/isrinja01.shtml)
Randy Johnson (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml)
Todd Jones (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesto02.shtml)
John Lieber (http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/liebejo01.shtml)
Derek Lowe (http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lowede01.shtml)
Greg Maddux (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maddugr01.shtml)
Pedro Martinez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml)
Jose Mesa (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mesajo01.shtml)
Kevin Millwood (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/millwke01.shtml)
Matt Morris (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morrima01.shtml)
Jamie Moyer (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/moyerja01.shtml)
Mark Mulder (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/muldema01.shtml)
Mike Mussina (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mussimi01.shtml)
Hideo Nomo (http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nomohi01.shtml)
Russ Ortiz (http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ortizru01.shtml)
Roy Oswalt (http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/oswalro01.shtml)
Chan Ho Park (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/parkch01.shtml)
Troy Percival (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/percitr01.shtml)
Andy Pettitte (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pettian01.shtml)
Mariano Rivera (http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/riverma01.shtml)
Kenny Rogers (http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rogerke01.shtml)
C.C. Sabathia (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sabatc.01.shtml)
Johan Santana (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/santajo02.shtml)
Jason Schmidt (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml)
John Smoltz (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/smoltjo01.shtml)
Mike Timlin (http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/timlimi01.shtml)
Billy Wagner (http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wagnebi02.shtml)
Tim Wakefield (http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wakefti01.shtml)
Dave Weathers (http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/weathda01.shtml)
Carlos Zambrano (http://www.baseball-reference.com/z/zambrca01.shtml)

[jjpm74]

Links to previous rounds:

Pre-1893 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78102)
1893-1919 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78755)
1920-1945 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79250)
NeL and Pre-NeL (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79656)
1946-1968 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79664)
1969-1985 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=80460)
1986-2007 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=80845)
Active Pitchers (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81263)

Previous round winners:

Pre-1893:

John Clarkson
Tommy Bond
Bob Caruthers
Larry Corcoran
Candy Cummings
Pud Galvin
Tim Keefe
Sliver King
Bobby Mathews
Jim McCormick
Tony Mullane
Charley Radbourne
Al Spalding
John Ward
Mickey Welch

1894-1919:

Chief Bender
Mordecai Brown
Jack Chesbro
Eddie Ciccotte
Clark Griffith
Addie Joss
Rube Marquard
Christy Mathewson
Joe McGinty
Kid Nichols
Deacon Phillippe
Eddie Plank
Ed Reulbach
Amos Rusie
Jesse Tannehill
Hippo Vaughn
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Vic Willis
Smoky Joe Wood
Cy Young

1920-1945:

Pete Alexander
Tommy Bridges
Wilbur Cooper
Stan Coveleski
Dizzy Dean
Red Faber
Wes Ferrell
Lefty Gomez
Burleigh Grimes
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Waite Hoyt
Walter Johnson
Ted Lyons
Carl Mays
Herb Pennock
Eppa Rixey
Red Ruffing
Urban Shocker
Dazzy Vance
Bucky Walters

NeL and Pre-NeL:

Ray Brown
Andy Cooper
Leon Day
Martin DiHigo
John Donaldson
Bill Foster
Rube Foster
Bill Jackman
Jose Mendez
Satchel Paige
Cannonball Dick Redding
Bullet Joe Rogan
Luis Tiant Sr.
Smoky Joe Williams
Nip Winters

1946-1968:

Jim Bunning
Don Drysdale
Bob Feller
Whitey Ford
Bob Gibson
Sandy Koufax
Bob Lemon
Dutch Leonard
Sal Maglie
Juan Marichal
Denny McLain
Don Newcombe
Hal Newhouser
Billy Pierce
Robin Roberts
Johnny Sain
Warren Spahn
Dizzy Trout
Virgil Trucks
Hoyt Wilhelm
Early Wynn

1969-1985:

Vida Blue
Steve Carlton
Rollie Fingers
Ron Guidry
Catfish Hunter
Fergie Jenkins
Tommy John
Jim Kaat
Jerry Koosman
Mickey Lolich
Sparky Lyle
Tug McGraw
Phil Neikro
Jim Palmer
Gaylord Perry
Dan Quisenberry
Rick Reuschel
Tom Seaver
Don Sutton
Luis Tiant Jr.
Wilbur Wood

1986-2007:

Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Roger Clemens
David Cone
Dennis Eckersley
John Franco
Doc Gooden
Goose Gossage
Tom Henke
Orel Hershiser
Jimmy Key
Dennis Martinez
Jack Morris
Nolan Ryan
Brett Saberhagen
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Dave Stieb
Bruce Sutter*
Frank Tanana
Fernando Vanenzuela
David Wells

Active pitchers:

Tom Glavine
Roy Halladay
Trevor Hoffman
Tim Hudson
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
John Smoltz
Billy Wagner

*Somehow was left of the last ballot. Sutter will appear in phase two.

[jjpm74]

A note on this group: Some of these pitchers are not yet established and have barely scraped the minimum for this project. I leave it up to each individual to decide on whether or not the younger active pitchers have done enough to be included in the next round. It is fine to focus on pitchers who's careers are winding down if you wish. I will be taking the top 15 vote getters.

[jjpm74]

Please vote for at least the minimum which is 10. Ballots with less than 10 players will not be counted. :)

[STLCards2]

jjpm74: please explain how Colon is more deserving than Glavine. I am very curious!

[jjpm74]

jjpm74: please explain how Colon is more deserving than Glavine. I am very curious!

Simple, I thought I'd checked Glavine off.

[leecemark]

--As usual made it easy on myself and voted for the maximum. The further sorting will be the fun part.

[Brad Harris]

Goofed. Please change my vote for Buehrle to Tim Hudson. ty

[PVNICK]

No Zito? Zambrano. Oswalt and Sabathia all are well on track but a year or two shy. I guess you could say that about Santana as well but he's been the best so he gets the nod.

[Brad Harris]

I place a heavier value on peak than many here, but here's my 15:

Starters
1. Maddux
2. Johnson
3. Martinez
4. Glavine
5. Mussina
6. Smoltz
------------ Hall line
7. Santana
8. Halladay
9. Oswalt
10. Sabathia
11. Hudson



Relievers
1. Rivera
2. Hoffman
------------ Hall line
3. Wagner
4. Percival

[jjpm74]

Substitute Zambrano for Oswalt and that's pretty much the same listing and order for me.

[jjpm74]

So far we have 18 valid ballots cast only one day into this group. That's a great turnout for a group of pitchers I wasn't sure people would be interested in for this project.

[STLCards2]

1. Who the heck didn't vote for Johnson?

2. Is the lack of love for Oswalt ( 137 ERA+, 120 - 60 ish W-L, 210 IP per seasons) reactionary due to his first off-season of his career? If Johnny Sain, Tug McGraw, Nip Winters, Denn McClain, and Fernando move on and Oswalt doesn't, I will be :eek:ed!

3. Colon? Nomo? Lowe? I would love to hear some rational!

[jjpm74]

Oswalt doesn't seem to be in too much danger of being eliminated unless there's a flurry of ballots that don't include him among the choices. I'm not too surprised to see that Sabathia, Hudson, Halladay, Oswalt and Santana aren't getting the same kind of support as Johnson or Maddux. Those five are at about the midway point in their careers whereas it's pretty clear that five years from retirement Johnson and Maddux will be enshrined in the HOF regardless of what they might achieve at this stage in their careers.

A lot can happen to any one of the younger pitchers at this point that would damage any possibility for having the kind of career we associate with a HOF calibre career. One only needs to look at pitchers like Ewell Blackwell and Doc Gooden (or Barry Zito for that matter) to see what can happen when HOF career gets mentioned too early in a player's career.

I think there's a group here who is reluctant to show any kind of support for the younger guys in a project like this. I personally don't see anything wrong with that line of reasoning.

[jjpm74]

Since we're going to end up with around 150 pitchers from this phase, I can expand the ranking section to 150 if people wish. The next round will involve pairing 2 groups and picking 10 from each of those groups. This group of 40 we end up which will then be whittled down to 20 to use to make our top ten. After the initial 4 set, there will be a vote for 20 from the remaining Nel and pre-1945 pitchers and a vote for 20 from the post-1945 pitchers and so on until we end up with rough rankings as follows:

Pitchers who may be in the top 20
Pitchers who may be in 21-40
Pitchers who may be in 41-60
Pitchers who may be in 61-80
Pitchers who may be in 81-100

*there will also be about 50 who don't make the cut after phase 2 is complete that we could rank later if there is an interest.

For phase 3, the plan was to then do 3 day votes for the best pitcher until we get to #10. At that point, should I add 21-40 in with the remaining pitchers who were not ranked in the first subset or continue with the first subset until all 20 are ranked? My concerns are that one the one hand, I don't want to end up with a pitcher ranked #20 if that pitcher could have ended up #25 if they were included with the sub group. On the other hand, I also don't want to see pitchers initially landing in the top group sliding down the rankings to #40 or lower. Thoughts?

[henrich]

SP
Glavine
Johnson, Randy
Maddux
Martinez, Pedro
Mussina
Smoltz
Sabathia
Zambrano
Oswalt
Nomo
Santana
If possible switch Pettitte for Carpenter as I missed Pettitte. If not I understand.

RP
Hoffman
Rivera
Wagner

I like Classic's line for HOF for both RP and SP.

[jjpm74]

RP
Hoffman
Rivera
Wagner

I like Classic's line for HOF for both RP and SP.

Given how much emphasis you place on the post season in your formula, I'm surprised you have a compiler like Hoffman ranked above Rivera.

[Paul Wendt]

1. Who the heck didn't vote for Johnson?
We know from occasional remarks that some BBFevrists faced with "vote for 15", for example, occasionally vote for the candidates whom they rank 14th to 18th. That is one example of strategic voting in a qualifying stages of multiple polls. (#1-2-3 will advance anyway. Let me help #16-17-18 against #19-20-21.)
If I recall correctly author/moderator jjpm did not vote for Jim Palmer and admitted to this strategy himself.

3. Colon? Nomo? Lowe? I would love to hear some rational!

Some of us like 'o'.

El Duque Hernandez is on my list but he isn't on the ballot. (I admit, I didn't think of El Duque, Nomo, and others with international careers when I looked over the prospective nominees, or I would have asked jjpm his intention.)

Once I expected to vote for Wakefield, partly for his flexibility - roles and timing, which can be used to help a pitching staff recover, and the Red Sox have used it that way. In the event I forgot about the flexibility and switched to Lowe after seeing that his statistics were better than I expected - more innings, higher ERA+. Certainly Wakefield should bump him out of the top 15. Perhaps Nomo & El Duque, an elite RP, and someone who played forever should bump down to more like 20.

2. . . . [if] Oswalt doesn't, I will be :eek:ed!
Santana, Oswalt, Halladay, Hudson - they are together in a different class from however many classes El Duque, Nomo, Lowe, Wakefield, Wagner and Rogers are in --probably about five different ones.

P.S. One 'STLCards2' did not vote for Halladay or Hudson :rolleyes:

--
At this stage Jamie Moyer deserves your vote!
like Frank Tanana in round 7.
This ain't the finals.

[BlueBlood]

Given how much emphasis you place on the post season in your formula, I'm surprised you have a compiler like Hoffman ranked above Rivera.

How is Hoffman a compiler? He has a 144 ERA+ in a lengthy career. That certainly has nothing to do with luck. If he had those saves with like a 120 ERA+ (which is what you would hope to have at the least from a reliever doing their job), then that argument would have some validity.

Also, post-season play doesn't even register in my world. Going to the playoffs like twice and blowing a few key games is such a minimal sample and more of a fluke if anything else.

That said, anyone ranking Hoffman above Rivera... :eek:

[jjpm74]

We know from occasional remarks that some BBFevrists faced with "vote for 15", for example, occasionally vote for the candidates whom they rank 14th to 18th. That is one example of strategic voting in a qualifying stages of multiple polls. (#1-2-3 will advance anyway. Let me help #16-17-18 against #19-20-21.)
If I recall correctly author/moderator jjpm did not vote for Jim Palmer and admitted to this strategy himself.

That's correct and I don't see anything wrong with this strategy in qualifying rounds. If a player is a shoe in for the next round but another you support is on the bubble, I wouldn't fault anyone for leaving the shoe in off the ballot to include the bubble person. In this round, it will not matter if a player had 100% support or 60% support. All that matters is that they had enough support to make it to the ranking phases of this project.

El Duque Hernandez is on my list but he isn't on the ballot. (I admit, I didn't think of El Duque, Nomo, and others with international careers when I looked over the prospective nominees, or I would have asked jjpm his intention.)

If someone wants to factor in a player's international career in this project, I have no problem with that, but the player needed to do enough in MLB to at least hit the minimum. El Duque did not hit that minimum and I didn't see anyone pining for him so I left him off the ballot. If you want me to include him in the ranking stage, I can set up a separate poll asking whether or not people want to see him included in phase 2 and let majority rule.

At this stage Jamie Moyer deserves your vote!
like Frank Tanana in round 7.
This ain't the finals.

I agree and am surprised he isn't getting more support. He's definitely at least worth a look in the second round.

How is Hoffman a compiler? He has a 144 ERA+ in a lengthy career. That certainly has nothing to do with luck. If he had those saves with like a 120 ERA+ (which is what you would hope to have at the least from a reliever doing their job), then that argument would have some validity.

Also, post-season play doesn't even register in my world. Going to the playoffs like twice and blowing a few key games is such a minimal sample and more of a fluke if anything else.

That said, anyone ranking Hoffman above Rivera... :eek:

I was referring more to the fact that henrich places a heavy value on post season performance yet has Hoffman ranked higher than Rivera. Both are over the HOF line for me, though I think Hoffman will struggle like Lee Smith is struggling.

[jjpm74]

SP

If possible switch Pettitte for Carpenter as I missed Pettitte. If not I understand.

Change noted. Thanks.

[jjpm74]

Here's a separate poll for El Duque:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81355

[STLCards2]

P.S. One 'STLCards2' did not vote for Halladay or Hudson :rolleyes:

--
At this stage Jamie Moyer deserves your vote!
like Frank Tanana in round 7.
This ain't the finals.

Halliday and Hudson would be my next two pitchers.

Yes, Halliday has 200 more IP than Oswalt, but also has been in the league 3 more years. 200 more IP is not enough to make up the 7 ERA+ difference. Halliday's inability to stay in the rotation has been a big problem for that organization. Oswalt over Halliday

Hudson has played 4 more seasons than Oswalt, and has 450ish more IP. Oswalt has an 11 ERA+ advantage over Hudson. All three guys are pretty close, but Oswalt is better, in my opinion.

Also, anybody voting for Zambrano should consider the ommission of Brandon Webb, who is only 90 IP behind Zambrano, but 11 ERA+ points ahead.

Something else to ponder...

Hoffman: 950 IP 144 ERA+
Webb: 1250 IP 144 ERA+

Man, maybe we really are overvaluing relievers big-time!

[BlueBlood]

Hoffman had to deal with passing his prime (age 27 or whatever for most people) and pitching past that whereas Webb is still young. That said, Webb certainly is a curious omission. I'd definitely put him in a Top 100 pitchers ever based on the way his stats are at the moment.

[Paul Wendt]

Hoffman had to deal with passing his prime (age 27 or whatever for most people) and pitching past that whereas Webb is still young. That said, Webb certainly is a curious omission. I'd definitely put him in a Top 100 pitchers ever based on the way his stats are at the moment.

Webb has worked another 1 to 1-1/2 seasons less than Sabathia :rolleyes:, Oswalt and Santana. In turn they have worked less than Halladay who has worked less than Hudson, roughly 300 innings at each step.

Zambrano has worked only a little more than Webb.

[Paul Wendt]

Halliday and Hudson would be my next two pitchers.

All three guys are pretty close, but Oswalt is better, in my opinion.
This suggests that Oswalt is only at or near the bottom of your own list of 15.

Previously,
>> [If] Oswalt doesn't, I will be freaked!

No one should freak out when a personal 15th or even 13th choice doesn't advance in a poll with 15 qualifiers.

>> 3. Colon? Nomo? Lowe? I would love to hear some rational!

Lowe --think of it as a vote for Wakefield. But Lowe has worked more than Sabathia and with higher ERA+.


C.C. Sabathia is where to look for misplaced votes in bulk. Maybe some of the Sabatharians can be persuaded to switch.

Which of the following is not like the others?
(intended to cover the starting pitchers who are contenders in baseball "middle age")
inns ERA+
2017 126 Hudson (9)
1729 130 Halladay (14)
1568 117 Sabathia (11)
1534 137 Oswalt (10)
1456 141 Santana (17)
1335 133 Zambrano (7)
1243 144 Webb (not nominated)

Which of the preceding has a record that would come up short in this tier?
2008 112 Colon (1)
1873 121 Lowe (1)
1568 117 Sabathia (11 (!))

Sabathia currently holds 50% of the votes and he is almost a lock to advance in place of Oswalt (unlikely) or Hudson or someone from another class.

--
This summer Barry Zito (2008 ERA+ = 74) finally passed Sabathia on the way down, although his whole career still looks better at one inn/ERA+ glance
1735 116 Zito
1568 117 Sabathia

--
Suppose Sabathia now tacks onto his 2008 season the work Doyle Alexander put up for Detroit in 1987. (A summer acquisition from the other league, Alexander worked 11 games: 88 ip, 9-0, ERA 1.53 ERA+ 278; cg 3, shutouts 3. Detroit won all 11 of his starts and won the division by one game.)

That would give Sabathia in the National League 16 games, 128 ip, 13-0, ERA+ ~250,
and a better showing than Alexander for the Cy Young Award.

It would also make Sabathia a worthy candidate to advance from this poll.

--
[copied from next door]

El Duque in the majors has done about as much and as well as C.C. Sabathia, who will probably advance. That is another reason I am voting yes [irrelevant here, and there!].

That assessment includes playoff games. 106 innings at ERA+ perhaps 180 for El Duque, 21 innings at ERA+ perhaps 60 for Sabathia.
inns ERA+
1590 116 Sabathia
1421 115 El Duque

Those guestimates for playoff ERA+ 180 and 60 are based on the postulate that career league-average adjusted ERA is the right point of reference in the playoffs. In other words, apply the career regular season adjustment to the career playoff ERA.

[jjpm74]

Zambrano has worked only a little more than Webb.

I had to cut it off somewhere. I'm sure even Joba Chamberlain would have had a supporter or two if he was on this list. :)

[Paul Wendt]

I had to cut it off somewhere. I'm sure even Joba Chamberlain would have had a supporter or two if he was on this list. :)
Papelbon too

In my opinion the support for Halladay, Oswalt, and Zambrano is roughly what may be expected if the voters simply have various thresholds for work. Every hundred innings another voter thinks "not yet; that career is simply too short for a round one vote". Along those lines Webb would get about 5 votes, Santana is getting extra credit (superior peak, maybe superior prime after some trials in the majors that others suffered in the minors or in college), Sabathia is getting extra credit (:confused:), and Hudson is getting short schrift.

[STLCards2]

No one should freak out when a personal 15th or even 13th choice doesn't advance in a poll with 15 qualifiers.

.

I was specificaly refering to Oswalt's support relative to some of the guys I mentioned who have already passed the first round of voting. Yes, it would be shocking to me if many people supported McGraw, Winters, and McClain the same as Oswalt.

This era is also very deep with HOF caliber pitchers (Maddux, Glavine, etc.), long career/high quality guys (Rogers,Moyer), ace relievers (Wagner, Rivera) and young greats who haven't declined yet (Santana, Halladay, etc.). I am sure there are multiple eras in which Oswalt would be much, much higher than my 13th or so pick.

Completely agree on Sabathia!

[Freakshow]

The guy I kind of missed is K-Rod (http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrifr03.shtml).

[Paul Wendt]

The guy I kind of missed is K-Rod (http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrifr03.shtml).
Wow.That is more than half Billy Wagner's regular season career.
And the playoff career?
During a recent Red Sox-Angels series K-Rod anticipated trying the free agent market. He was quoted essentially, "They had me for six years and didn't do anything." Huh? They haven't yet returned to a second World Series but that isn't easy to do. They have four playoffs in six years with a seventh almost certainly this fall. In K-Rod's debut year they won it. How'd he do then, age 20?

Francisco Rodriguez, 2002 playoffs
11 games, all in relief
18.2 innings
5-1
10 hits
4 er
28 strikeouts

That looks like a clerical error or three!

--
Nevertheless, by my simple classification K-Rod is still in baseball "youth" (less than 27; 27-32; older than 32). At only half of Billy Wagner's career he wouldn't yet be close to earning my vote here.

[jjpm74]

If K-Rod and Papelbon stay healthy, they have a good chance of redefining the role of a reliever. They are both unique in that both are young pitchers who have been used as relievers since their ML debut. Currently, both have a total of 4 full seasons in baseball each. K-rod also has 1 1/2 season and a season where he saw 5.7 regular season innings (the same season as his legendary playoffs).

[STLCards2]

If K-Rod and Papelbon stay healthy, they have a good chance of redefining the role of a reliever. They are both unique in that both are young pitchers who have been used as relievers since their ML debut. Currently, both have a total of 4 full seasons in baseball each. K-rod also has 1 1/2 season and a season where he saw 5.7 regular season innings (the same season as his legendary playoffs).

And yet Joe Nathan might be off to the best start of all three. "Might" before anybody jumps down my throat.

[jjpm74]

And yet Joe Nathan might be off to the best start of all three. "Might" before anybody jumps down my throat.

Nathan is 6 years older than Papalbon and 8 years older than K-rod.

[STLCards2]

Nathan is 6 years older than Papalbon and 8 years older than K-rod.

True, but he has produced at as high if not higher level than either one of them, so far. Nathan's last 5 years in particular have been second to only Rivera, possibly. He will be out of baseball sooner than the other two (and yes, age was mentioned as a qualifier), but his age doesn't change his equal status in relative terms of the oter two closers and this project.

I guess the slippery-slope question is: if K- Rod and Paplebon, why not Nathan? The fact that he has played longer (and older) and pitched more innings only helps his case vs. the younger pitchers.

[jjpm74]

True, but he has produced at as high if not higher level than either one of them, so far. Nathan's last 5 years in particular have been second to only Rivera, possibly. He will be out of baseball sooner than the other two (and yes, age was mentioned as a qualifier), but his age doesn't change his equal status in relative terms of the oter two closers and this project.

I guess the slippery-slope question is: if K- Rod and Paplebon, why not Nathan? The fact that he has played longer (and older) and pitched more innings only helps his case vs. the younger pitchers.

Is he someone you would honestly put in your top 100 all time?

With relievers, I was even more selective than I was with starters from this generation since there are relievers now who in 2 years obtain as many saves as previous generations of relievers did in their entire careers. There were roughly 1000 pitchers I looked at for this project. As it was, people were complaining that the poll groups were too long. Imagine those poll groups with 150+ per generation instead of the roughly 45-65 I had to whittle each group down to.

[STLCards2]

Is he someone you would honestly put in your top 100 all time?

With relievers, I was even more selective than I was with starters from this generation since there are relievers now who in 2 years obtain as many saves as previous generations of relievers did in their entire careers.

No, but neither are about 50 ofthe guys we are sending on to the next round, including F-Rod and Paplebon. I am looking at Nathan vs. the other guys who just had their rears smootched by other posters. If it was really about picking guys we felt were top 100 guys, we should have been given the option to select as few guys as we wanted. The nature of this project forces us to push guys forward who aren't even close to top 100.

Is Sabathia somebody you would really put in your top 100? Or Colon?

Speaking of Sabathia and the "one of these things is not like the other' theme presented by Paul:

Sabathia: 1168 IP, 117 ERA+

Rogers: 3261 IP, 110 ERA+

Moyer: 3683 IP, 105 ERA+

Yet Sabathia is beating Moyer handidly and is doubling- up Rogers?:eek:

This proves that so many people still vastly underrate IP around here.

By the way, I don't want any of them in my top 100 either.

[jjpm74]

No, but neither are about 50 ofthe guys we are sending on to the next round, including F-Rod and Paplebon. I am looking at Nathan vs. the other guys who just had their rears smootched by other posters. If it was really about picking guys we felt were top 100 guys, we should have been given the option to select as few guys as we wanted. The nature of this project forces us to push guys forward who aren't even close to top 100.

If given that option, we would have ended up with roughly 40 pitchers total. The reason we have more than 100 is so that we can get a better idea of who should actually round out the top 100.

Is Sabathia somebody you would really put in your top 100? Or Colon?

I honestly don't know and won't know until I see what my other options are. I've honestly never gone past top 10 for any position before with the exception of second basemen. Have you? If so, could you post your list? It may be of help to many in the next phases.

Speaking of Sabathia and the "one of these things is not like the other' theme presented by Paul:

Sabathia: 1168 IP, 117 ERA+

Rogers: 3261 IP, 110 ERA+

Moyer: 3683 IP, 105 ERA+

Yet Sabathia is beating Moyer handidly and is doubling- up Rogers?:eek:

This proves that so many people still vastly underrate IP around here.

By the way, I don't want any of them in my top 100 either.

I agree with you, but others have their own approaches and cutoffs. There are also people here who tend to use ERA+ more heavily than others. I wanted to keep this group within reason (I hope that most would agree that the inclusion of someone like the previously mentioned Chamberlain would have been ridiculous in a project like this) but I also didn't want to shut down different lines of thinking. There have been threads in this very forum about guys like Tim Hudson. Obviously there are people out there thinking in terms of the mid career guys and speculating as to whether or not they are HOFers. However, I prefer to think of the mid career guys in this light: If this project were taking place in 1991, where would Maddux fall in your top 100? How about now?

[STLCards2]

If given that option, we would have ended up with roughly 40 pitchers total. The reason we have more than 100 is so that we can get a better idea of who should actually round out the top 100.



I have listed my top 200 pitchers of all-time if you want to click on the link in my signature sometime.

[jjpm74]

I don't see a signature in your profile or below your post.

[STLCards2]

I don't see a signature in your profile or below your post.

"Check out my Website..." Check below the plethera of Cardinals' World Championship and NL Championship seasons. Can't miss all of those.:)

[Paul Wendt]

Speaking of Sabathia and the "one of these things is not like the other' theme presented by Paul:

Sabathia: 1568 IP, 117 ERA+ [corrected]

Rogers: 3261 IP, 110 ERA+

Moyer: 3683 IP, 105 ERA+

Yet Sabathia is beating Moyer handidly and is doubling- up Rogers?:eek:

This proves that so many people still vastly underrate IP around here.
Maybe there is something specific to a smaller group or to Sabathia in particular.
- current Cy Young Award looms large
- advantage of tall men in all walks of life (did J.R. do as well as C.C.?)
- early-career hype by Rob Neyer never tarnishes
- credit for batting :)

[STLCards2]

Maybe there is something specific to a smaller group or to Sabathia in particular.
- current Cy Young Award looms large
- advantage of tall men in all walks of life (did J.R. do as well as C.C.?)
- early-career hype by Rob Neyer never tarnishes

I was thinking about your first and third points, but I am not sure about the second point. I should have paid more attention in my social psych courses in college.:)

[Paul Wendt]

I was specificaly refering to Oswalt's support relative to some of the guys I mentioned who have already passed the first round of voting. Yes, it would be shocking to me if many people supported McGraw, Winters, and McClain the same as Oswalt.
I imagine jjpm had a big guess to make. How many votes would all the half and two-third careers of active players attract? What span of years would make this group a little smaller than the others in effect?

There is a rationale for taking 150 in a series of round ones, and then cutting to 100, when you want 100 --especially if you don't care about 150 at all. The voters end up doing the work in round two rub out the effects of stipulating time periods and "vote for 15" in round one.

Recently I reached Tekulve, Hiller, and Lyle around #13-14-15 and made it to McGraw by #20. Others voted for McLain, evidently. Probably we will both make numerous cuts from that time period in round two.

[Paul Wendt]

Links to previous rounds:
. . .
Previous round winners:
. . .
I don't see Bruce Sutter anywhere.

[jjpm74]

I don't see Bruce Sutter anywhere.


Weird. I'll add him to the next phase where he'll either sink or swim.

[bambambaseball]

I coulda easily voted for 25 here. Why can we only do 15?

[jjpm74]

I coulda easily voted for 25 here. Why can we only do 15?

Is this the sentiment with this group? I thought people would be struggling to come up with the 10 minimum. Not suggesting they have to cut players to get to 15.

[jalbright]

I didn't have any trouble stopping before 15.

[STLCards2]

Bump:)

When are we going to get the next round running?

[Paul Wendt]

Given the convention to stipulate a multiples of five, I think it is clear you made the right choice here with "vote for 10 to 15" and "15 winners. At the moment the next five in the standings (#16-20) are Moyer, Zambrano, Rogers, Nomo, Percival. I think they make a much better match for the next fives (#21-25) than for the bottom five winners (#16-20) in previous polls.

Subjective feelings about the ease or difficulty of cutting one or adding two are not useful. No one(?) is comparing these candidates with those in other groups. Different people see bigger and smaller gaps at different places in their personal rankings and that variety underlies those subjective feelings.

[Brad Harris]

I'm a little curious about the lower tier guys on this ballot, but frankly, none of them are likely to make my top 100 list.

[jjpm74]

With 28 valid ballots, we have elected these 15 to the next phase:

Tom Glavine
Roy Halladay
Trevor Hoffman
Tim Hudson
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
John Smoltz
Billy Wagner

A notable omission is Jamie Moyer who may not be top 100 material, but IMO is a better candidate than some of the pitchers we've advanced.

I'll be posting the first of the phase 2 ballots shortly.

[BlueBlood]

Hudson over Moyer is a stretch to my eyes for now. However, I voted for neither and am certain they'd receive no votes in the next round.

Advancing out of the advancers to the Top 100...

Glavine
Johnson
Maddux
Martinez
Mussina
Rivera
Smoltz

I'll try to feign "surprise" when that happens.

[Brad Harris]

Hudson over Moyer is a stretch to my eyes for now. However, I voted for neither and am certain they'd receive no votes in the next round.
Be consoled by the knowledge neither Hudson nor Moyer are likely to make anyone's Top 100 list.

[Paul Wendt]

Hudson over Moyer is a stretch to my eyes for now.
How about Hudson over Sabathia? :laugh:
In my opinion this was the group's best performance with only with the 15 best candidates ranking 1-14 and 16 although I see the argument for Kenny Rogers over Billy Wagner or one of the youngsters.

Glavine
Johnson
Maddux
Martinez
Mussina
Rivera
Smoltz
I'll try to feign "surprise" when that happens.
That is the eight who have practically completed their winning resumes, minus Hoffman. I suppose we'll see Hoffman and others from this group in the Hundred. But who knows, maybe some group will hit 15 of 20.

Hudson over Moyer is a stretch to my eyes for now. However, I voted for neither and am certain they'd receive no votes in the next round.
But the next round focuses on the elite. No one needs to win or even get a single vote in the next round to make the Hundred.

Now I have this dreadful image of Atila and the Huns advancing on Europe.

[Brad Harris]

Now I have this dreadful image of Atila and the Huns advancing on Europe.
The barbarians only reach the gates when we start trashing Gil Hodges around here. :shhh:

[henrich]

The barbarians only reach the gates when we start trashing Gil Hodges around here. :shhh:


I think Hodges is the best hitter not in the HOF today followed closely by Joe Gordon.

[STLCards2]

I think Hodges is the best hitter not in the HOF today followed closely by Joe Gordon.

How far does Dick Allen fall behind the offensive juggernaught who is Gil Hodges? He of the 120 OPS+ for a firstbaseman.

[henrich]

How far does Dick Allen fall behind the offensive juggernaught who is Gil Hodges? He of the 120 OPS+ for a firstbaseman.


I don't think Allen cuts it.

Allen scores at 9030 40th all-time at his position.

I have Hodges at 10,839 18th all-time at his position

Gordon comes in at 10,265 11th all-time at his position.

[Paul Wendt]

Four weeks ago,
Which of the preceding has a record that would come up short in this tier?
2008 112 Colon (1)
1873 121 Lowe (1)
1568 117 Sabathia (11) (!)) [11 votes so far]
. . .
This summer Barry Zito (2008 ERA+ = 74) finally passed Sabathia on the way down, although his whole career still looks better at one inn/ERA+ glance
1735 116 Zito
1568 117 Sabathia
Now at
1611 119 !
with Zito in the rearview mirror and Lowe just ahead. :rolleyes:
. . .
Suppose Sabathia now tacks onto his 2008 season the work Doyle Alexander put up for Detroit in 1987. (A summer acquisition from the other league, Alexander worked 11 games: 88 ip, 9-0, ERA 1.53 ERA+ 278; cg 3, shutouts 3. Detroit won all 11 of his starts and won the division by one game.)

That finish would give Sabathia in the National League 16 games, 128 ip, 13-0, ERA+ ~250,
and a better showing than [Doyle] Alexander for the Cy Young Award.

It would also make Sabathia a worthy candidate to advance from this poll.
(as he did barely by finishing 15th)

Doyle Alexander 1987 ~Aug-Sep
August 12, 1987: Traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Detroit Tigers for John Smoltz.
DET AL 9 0 11 11 3 3 0 0 88.3 63 16 15 3 26 44 0 1 340 0 0 1.53 4.25 278 1.008

MIL NL 9 0 11 11 6 3 0 0 88.0 69 17 14 4 18 85 2 0 344 0 0 1.43 4.33 302 0.989
C.C. Sabathia 2008 ~Jul-Aug (one line up)

You can appreciate that without knowing the column headings, eh?

Doyle Alexander's two short months were just enough for the 1987 Tigers. He and the team played poorly in October. The 2008 Brewers have another month of C.C. Sabathia coming and a 5-game cushion. It will be an 8-team playoff if they make it but Milwaukee just getting there is a big deal.


* The Orioles gave old Frank Robinson for Alexander in 1972 and the Tigers gave young John Smoltz in 1987!

[BlueBlood]

I'm glad I voted for him. No way he isn't a Top 100 case after what he's done in the last couple months.

[STLCards2]

I'm glad I voted for him. No way he isn't a Top 100 case after what he's done in the last couple months.

Sabathia:

115 - 71 .618 W%
1,617 IP
119 ERA+


Oswalt:

124 - 63 .663 W%
1,585 IP
138 ERA+

Even after Sabathia's best seasons and Oswalt's worst, Oswalt is destroying Sabathia's career so far through 8 seasons. If you voted for Sabbathia, I sure hope you voted for Oswalt.

[STLCards2]

Here are some more:

Halladay:

128 - 64 .667 W%
1772 IP
131 ERA+

Santana:

105 - 51 .673 W%
1506 IP
142 ERA+

Webb:

84 - 61 .579 W%
1281 IP
143 ERA+

Halladay bests C.C. in every category, Santana dominates C.C. in everything but 100 IP, and Webb is besting sabathia by 24 ERA+ points. You will have a pretty crowded top 100 of current pitchers if you think Sabathia makes it.

In regards to his time as a Brewer: it has been very impressive, but I am sure you could take the best 8-9 game stretch of any of these guys or any HOF pitcher and find a similar stretch of dominance. What Sabathia has dome over his past 9 starts has been great, but not unusualy so- not enough for a 119 ERA+ with only 1600 IP into top 100 territory. Your talking John Tudor territroy here. Now in 5 years? That is another story. C.C. is younger than most of these guys, and may very well be the best in the end - but lags behind all of these guys so far. I would probably take Peavy's career so far as well.

[BlueBlood]

Technically, I'd put Oswalt, Halladay Santana & Webb in my Top 100 as well. The back 20 or so of any Top 100 pitchers list has a lot of guys with a few big years or a so-so career...I'd have no problem flushing those sorta guys out and putting in the new crop.

[Paul Wendt]

[repeating myself]
Doyle Alexander 1987 ~Aug-Sep
August 12, 1987: Traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Detroit Tigers for John Smoltz.
DET AL 9 0 11 11 3 3 0 0 88.3 63 16 15 3 26 44 0 1 340 0 0 1.53 4.25 278 1.008

MIL NL 9 0 11 11 6 3 0 0 88.0 69 17 14 4 18 85 2 0 344 0 0 1.43 4.33 302 0.989
C.C. Sabathia 2008 ~Jul-Aug (one line up)

You can appreciate that without knowing the column headings, eh?
[end]

eleven starts

I meant that you can appreciate the similarity without knowing the column headings. You can't reliably interpret either record!

Sabathia leads the National in complete games and shutouts. In the American he is only second (far behind Halladay) and first (tie). How much "ink" do they give for that? He chose better categories than McGwire in 1998. You can't lead both leagues in homeruns.

[Paul Wendt]

Doyle Alexander 1987 ~Aug-Sep
August 12, 1987: Traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Detroit Tigers for John Smoltz.
DET AL 9 0 11 11 3 3 0 0 88.3 63 16 15 3 26 44 0 1 340 0 0 1.53 4.25 278 1.008

MIL NL 9 0 11 11 6 3 0 0 88.0 69 17 14 4 18 85 2 0 344 0 0 1.43 4.33 302 0.989
C.C. Sabathia 2008 ~Jul-Aug (one line up)

You can appreciate that [similarity] without knowing the column headings, eh?

Doyle Alexander's two short months were just enough for the 1987 Tigers. He and the team played poorly in October. The 2008 Brewers have another month of C.C. Sabathia coming and a 5-game cushion. It will be an 8-team playoff if they make it but Milwaukee just getting there is a big deal.
Milwaukee getting there is a big deal.
How it happened is a big deal, too, both in Milwaukee and in New York.

MIL NL _9 0 11 11 6 3 0 0 _88.0 _69 17 14 4 18 _85 2 0 344 0 0 1.43 4.33 302 0.989 : Sabathia, 2008 Jul-Aug
MIL NL 11 2 17 17 7 3 0 0 130.7 106 31 24 6 25 128 4 1 516 0 0 1.65 4.34 262 1.003 : Sabathia, 2008 Jul-Sep (NL total)

Taking a few differences, in the last six of his 17 NL starts, Sabathia pitched only one complete game, no shutouts, 2-2 w-l.
He did lead both leagues in shutouts with two and three.