current players who have strong or considerable cases for the hall

[Gregory Pratt]

hi

a good and worthy friend of mine was going to ask me whether or not a player who is nearing the end of his career is a player who deserves to be in the Hall. But he was having trouble remembering exactly who it was. Can you guys list some players active today who are more seasoned players who might have cases (whether you believe in them or not) so I can send him a list?

[1905 Giants]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

Randy Johnson
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Jim Thome
Ken Griffey Jr.
Jeff Kent
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield
Frank Thomas
Mike Piazza
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Mike Mussina
John Smoltz

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

Randy Johnson
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Jim Thome
Ken Griffey Jr.
Jeff Kent
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield
Frank Thomas
Mike Piazza
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Mike Mussina
John Smoltz
You forgot Alex Rodriguez.:)

[1905 Giants]

You forgot Alex Rodriguez.:)

He's not nearing the end of his career, but yes, he belongs.

[cbenson5]

I'm not sure if he meets the "nearing the end of his career" statement, but Chipper Jones has a strong case. Carlos Delgado and Omar Vizquel are a couple more players who have a case. Curt Schilling is another player who has not been mentioned.

[JDD]

I may get ripped for this, but one stat I like to use is good ol' base hits: :dance Let's take a look at a list of players who were active last year, and rank them by career base hits. I will bold those players who I think have a shot. Some of them may be no brainers....

1 Craig Biggio 3060
2 Barry Bonds 2935
3 Omar Vizquel 2598
4 Julio Franco 2586
5 Ken Griffey Jr. 2558
6 Steve Finley 2548
7 Gary Sheffield 2521
8 Luis Gonzalez 2502
9 Ivan Rodriguez 2495
10 Kenny Lofton 2428
11 Frank Thomas 2409
12 Sammy Sosa 2408
13 Derek Jeter 2356
14 Jeff Kent 2338
15 Alex Rodriguez 2250
16 Manny Ramirez 2209
17 Garret Anderson 2205
18 Mike Piazza 2127
T19 Chipper Jones 2117
T19 Moises Alou 2117
21 Johnny Damon 2102
22 Shawn Green 2003
23 Jeff Conine 1982
24 Vladimir Guerrero 1972
25 Ray Durham 1947
26 Edgar Renteria 1934
27 Jim Thome 1925
28 Mark Grudzielanek 1911
29 Royce Clayton 1904
30 Todd Helton 1878
T31 Carlos Delgado 1848
T31 Jason Kendall 1848
33 Jim Edmonds 1801
34 Bobby Abreu 1766
35 Miguel Tejada 1736
36 Jason Giambi 1699
T37 Andruw Jones 1683
T37 Brian Giles 1683
39 Reggie Sanders 1666
40 Nomar Garciaparra 1659
41 Magglio Ordonez 1652
42 Luis Castillo 1611
43 Shannon Stewart 1610
T44 Mark Loretta 1598
T44 Jeff Cirillo 1598
46 Ichiro Suzuki 1592

I know many of you consider Abreu to be one of the best players around, but I see him just short of 75 percent. Just because we think a lot of him here, does not mean the three out of four writers will agree. The same goes for Thome. Guys like him don't pass the gut check. If you were to look up his stats, then yeah... he has a real good chance of getting in. But a LOT of writers don't bother, and just ask themselves if they ever thought of Thome as a Hall of Fame type player when they saw him play. More than 25 percent will say NO I reckon'. Garciaparra was on his way while in his 20's. Jones too.

[White Knight]

I may get ripped for this, but one stat I like to use is good ol' base hits: :dance Let's take a look at a list of players who were active last year, and rank them by career base hits. I will bold those players who I think have a shot. Some of them may be no brainers....

1 Craig Biggio 3060
2 Barry Bonds 2935
3 Omar Vizquel 2598
4 Julio Franco 2586
5 Ken Griffey Jr. 2558
6 Steve Finley 2548
7 Gary Sheffield 2521
8 Luis Gonzalez 2502
9 Ivan Rodriguez 2495
10 Kenny Lofton 2428
11 Frank Thomas 2409
12 Sammy Sosa 2408
13 Derek Jeter 2356
14 Jeff Kent 2338
15 Alex Rodriguez 2250
16 Manny Ramirez 2209
17 Garret Anderson 2205
18 Mike Piazza 2127
T19 Chipper Jones 2117
T19 Moises Alou 2117
21 Johnny Damon 2102
22 Shawn Green 2003
23 Jeff Conine 1982
24 Vladimir Guerrero 1972
25 Ray Durham 1947
26 Edgar Renteria 1934
27 Jim Thome 1925
28 Mark Grudzielanek 1911
29 Royce Clayton 1904
30 Todd Helton 1878
T31 Carlos Delgado 1848
T31 Jason Kendall 1848
33 Jim Edmonds 1801
34 Bobby Abreu 1766
35 Miguel Tejada 1736
36 Jason Giambi 1699
T37 Andruw Jones 1683
T37 Brian Giles 1683
39 Reggie Sanders 1666
40 Nomar Garciaparra 1659
41 Magglio Ordonez 1652
42 Luis Castillo 1611
43 Shannon Stewart 1610
T44 Mark Loretta 1598
T44 Jeff Cirillo 1598
46 Ichiro Suzuki 1592

I know many of you consider Abreu to be one of the best players around, but I see him just short of 75 percent. Just because we think a lot of him here, does not mean the three out of four writers will agree. The same goes for Thome. Guys like him don't pass the gut check. If you were to look up his stats, then yeah... he has a real good chance of getting in. But a LOT of writers don't bother, and just ask themselves if they ever thought of Thome as a Hall of Fame type player when they saw him play. More than 25 percent will say NO I reckon'. Garciaparra was on his way while in his 20's. Jones too.


Sosa has 600+ HRs. He is not going to be left out. I think the 600 HR platau is PED-proof (not saying Sosa used or not though, zero proof).

[JDD]

Pitchers are a mess. That 300 win bar will move. Post season credit and fame will take the place of real wins. Here are the guys who played in 2007 and who had more than 200 wins up to that point:

WINS W
1 Roger Clemens 354
2 Greg Maddux 347
3 Tom Glavine 303
4 Randy Johnson 284
5 Mike Mussina 250
6 David Wells 239
7 Jamie Moyer 230
8 Curt Schilling 216
9 Kenny Rogers 210
10 Pedro Martinez 209
11 John Smoltz 207
12 Andy Pettitte 201


Note how many played in the post season, and played well there too. That helps win you votes. Being on good teams helps... Yanks, Sox, Braves....

[JDD]

Boy, this Sosa/Big Mac debate sure will heat up when they hit the ballot. How many arrogant sports writers do you think will want to send those boys a message? Not many?

How many writers does it take to keep someone out of the HOF (for a long time, if not longer)?

Not many.

[White Knight]

Boy, this Sosa/Big Mac debate sure will heat up when they hit the ballot. How many arrogant sports writers do you think will want to send those boys a message? Not many?

How many writers does it take to keep someone out of the HOF (for a long time, if not longer)?

Not many.

They can't deny Sosa because there is zero proof. No one has accused him, not Canseco or the Mitchel Report, nor has he failed any test. He's just "suspected" but you can't deny him for being merely suspicious. Kind of like if I drive by a known drug area at 3:00 AM. The cops search me, and find nothing. Can't arest me, sorry. :P

Big Mac was already denied twice, with less than 25% of the vote. He was accused by Canseco, and said he wasn't "here to talk about the past" to Congress. Still, he wasn't mentioned in the Mitchel Report, nor has he ever failed a test.

[Windy City Fan]

The writers are very much within their rights to with hold HOF inductions for Sosa. This isn't a legal trial where there is a standard of proof. If the voters feel (as I do) that Sosa used PEDs, then they are free to penalize him for that in their votes. My guess is Sosa, like McGwire, will wait a long time before he gets inducted, if he ever does. Bonds and Clemens will be interesting cases because both were undeniable HOF talents before they came into contact with PEDs.

Back to the point of the thread, these guys are virtual locks in my mind:

Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Tom Glavine
Greg Maddux
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
Frank Thomas
Vladimir Guerro
Gary Sheffield
Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Jeff Kent
Chipper Jones
Ken Griffey Jr.
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Manny Rameriz
Ichiro Suzuki

Bonds and Clemens are not currently playing and have the PED cloud hanging over their heads, but I'd add them to the list.

Borderline players:
Jim Edmonds
Omar Vizquel
Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Mike Mussina
Miguel Tejada
Jim Thome
Carlos Delgado

Of the above list, Thome I strongly support, but I think he'll have problems with the writers. Edmonds, Helton, and Mussina are real iffy for me, and rest don't cut it.

[Freakshow]

According to Bill James' HOF Monitor, these are the top 50 among recent players(the scale has changed making a shoo-in a score of 150+):

353 Barry*Bonds
331 Roger*Clemens
322 Randy*Johnson
316 Alex*Rodriguez
255 Greg*Maddux
235 Ken*Griffey
228 Ivan*Rodriguez
221 Derek*Jeter
205 Mike*Piazza
204 Pedro*Martinez

201 Sammy*Sosa
196 Manny*Ramirez
194 Frank*Thomas
193 Roberto*Alomar
178 Vladimir*Guerrero
178 Rafael*Palmeiro
178 Mariano*Rivera
176 Tom*Glavine
175 Albert*Pujols
171 Curt*Schilling

169 Craig*Biggio
167 John*Smoltz
164 Ichiro*Suzuki
154 Chipper*Jones
154 Todd*Helton
153 Trevor*Hoffman
149 Jeff*Bagwell
147 Larry*Walker
146 Gary*Sheffield
143 Jim*Thome

133 Bernie*Williams
131 Edgar*Martinez
124 John*Franco
121 Jeff*Kent
120 Juan*Gonzalez
118 Barry*Larkin
114 Andres*Galarraga
114 Miguel*Tejada
114 Mike*Mussina
113 Jose*Mesa

112 Nomar*Garciaparra
105 Billy*Wagner
104 Omar*Vizquel
102 Andy*Pettitte
101 Andruw*Jones
101 Luis*Gonzalez
100 Magglio*Ordonez
100 Carlos*Delgado
100 Fred*McGriff
95 Jason*Giambi

[White Knight]

The writers are very much within their rights to with hold HOF inductions for Sosa. This isn't a legal trial where there is a standard of proof. If the voters feel (as I do) that Sosa used PEDs, then they are free to penalize him for that in their votes. My guess is Sosa, like McGwire, will wait a long time before he gets inducted, if he ever does. Bonds and Clemens will be interesting cases because both were undeniable HOF talents before they came into contact with PEDs.

They are not within their rights at all, not one bit. Palmero failed a drug test, so he used, no questions asked. Bonds and Clemens have a solid case against them both, that's pretty clear, with government evidence and former trainers coming forth accusing them. Now, with McGwire, there's a bit less proof. Canseco accused him, but so what. He also was "not here to talk about the past" to Congress, but again, so what? He didn't testify to talk about his past, so good for him for not talking, guilty or not. Now there is Sosa, a player who is merely suspicious because he bulked up in his late 20's and hit a lot of HRs. You can't withhold anyone for having incredible seasons. If Babe Ruth played in the 90's would they withhold him too if he duplicated his 20's numbers? Sosa makes it, no question about it.

[STLCards2]

Back to the point of the thread, these guys are virtual locks in my mind:

Ichiro Suzuki




Are you giving Ichiro credit for Japanese League time (also negating the 10-year rule), if not, I fail to see how Ichiro is a "virtual lock", but Pujols isn't mentioned.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Are you giving Ichiro credit for Japanese League time (also negating the 10-year rule), if not, I fail to see how Ichiro is a "virtual lock", but Pujols isn't mentioned.

I wonder if the voters will give Ichiro's time in Japan some weight? I think it's fair to give his Japanese league performance some weight. How much weight should it be given? That's a tough question. But I have no doubt in my mind that had Ichiro been in the US he would have debuted in the major leagues by age 21 at the latest.

[Windy City Fan]

Are you giving Ichiro credit for Japanese League time (also negating the 10-year rule), if not, I fail to see how Ichiro is a "virtual lock", but Pujols isn't mentioned.

Pujols skipped my mind. The only thing that could keep him out at this point is a PED scandal or not meeting the ten year requirement due to some tragedy. Otherwise he is a lock.

Ichiro deserves to be in, at least in my opinion, even he doesn't meet the ten year requirement due to his time in Japan. However, Ichiro will almost certainly get ten MLB years under his belt baring some sort of tragedy.

They are not within their rights at all, not one bit. Palmero failed a drug test, so he used, no questions asked. Bonds and Clemens have a solid case against them both, that's pretty clear, with government evidence and former trainers coming forth accusing them. Now, with McGwire, there's a bit less proof. Canseco accused him, but so what. He also was "not here to talk about the past" to Congress, but again, so what? He didn't testify to talk about his past, so good for him for not talking, guilty or not. Now there is Sosa, a player who is merely suspicious because he bulked up in his late 20's and hit a lot of HRs. You can't withhold anyone for having incredible seasons. If Babe Ruth played in the 90's would they withhold him too if he duplicated his 20's numbers? Sosa makes it, no question about it.

They are within their rights. Show me where the rules say they can't do it. This is not a court of law. There is no requirement or standard of evidence. This is the Hall of Fame where we decide if we will honor the careers of these men. If the voters suspect an individual of a serious offense, they have no obligation to honor his career or presume his innocence. Afterall, the player can always be elected later, either by the voters or the VC, but once he's in, you can't kick him out.

As to Sosa, I'm a long time Cubs fan and Chicago resident, so I watched him day in and day out, going back to his days across town with the Sox. If you would've said Sosa was a HoFer in 1997, nine years into his career, you would've been laughed at by everyone in the city of Chicago. Sosa's case rests soley on a five year peak that his drastically out of sync with the rest of his career. Furthermore, Sosa was a average fielder at best, a poor baserunner (good speed as a younger guy, but prone to mental lapses and blind overagressive running), and a divisive presence in the clubhouse.

I was defender of Sammy for a while, as I did enjoy his homer happy peak, even though he did frustrate me to no end with his constant overthrowing of the cutoff man, boneheaded baserunning, and his tired prima donna act. The nail in the coffin for me was a Mark Grace interview that was published several years ago in the Chicago Sun-Times.

They asked Grace if he believed folks who used steriods should be inducted to the HOF. He stated that he was strongly against proven PED users being honored. He was then asked if he felt McGwire and Bonds belonged. He said yes, nothing had been proven yet and they deserved to get in unless it could be proven they used PEDs. He was then asked if Sammy should be get in. He said no and refused to elaborate why. It doesn't take a magnifying glass to read between the lines.

[White Knight]

They are within their rights. Show me where the rules say they can't do it. This is not a court of law. There is no requirement or standard of evidence. This is the Hall of Fame where we decide if we will honor the careers of these men. If the voters suspect an individual of a serious offense, they have no obligation to honor his career or presume his innocence. Afterall, the player can always be elected later, either by the voters or the VC, but once he's in, you can't kick him out.

As to Sosa, I'm a long time Cubs fan and Chicago resident, so I watched him day in and day out, going back to his days across town with the Sox. If you would've said Sosa was a HoFer in 1997, nine years into his career, you would've been laughed at by everyone in the city of Chicago. Sosa's case rests soley on a five year peak that his drastically out of sync with the rest of his career. Furthermore, Sosa was a average fielder at best, a poor baserunner (good speed as a younger guy, but prone to mental lapses and blind overagressive running), and a divisive presence in the clubhouse.

I was defender of Sammy for a while, as I did enjoy his homer happy peak, even though he did frustrate me to no end with his constant overthrowing of the cutoff man, boneheaded baserunning, and his tired prima donna act. The nail in the coffin for me was a Mark Grace interview that was published several years ago in the Chicago Sun-Times.

They asked Grace if he believed folks who used steriods should be inducted to the HOF. He stated that he was strongly against proven PED users being honored. He was then asked if he felt McGwire and Bonds belonged. He said yes, nothing had been proven yet and they deserved to get in unless it could be proven they used PEDs. He was then asked if Sammy should be get in. He said no and refused to elaborate why. It doesn't take a magnifying glass to read between the lines.

I'll comment on your last paragraph first. He was just being humble for one, and you said several years ago. Several years ago he didn't have 500 HRs, let alone the 600+ he has now. Ask him now and he'll say yes.

Now, as fr the writers. Ok, pysically, they can not vote him in wit zero evidence, but that's like saying they won't vote for Ripken because he has deep blue eyes. If they don't vote him in merely because his muscles grew and he had a good peak, they will (and should) be fired. Even with Big Mac they have a hell of a lot of nerve, because there's zero proof with him too. However, he was accused by Jose Canseco and didn't directly answer the question before Congress. With Sosa, it's just his stats and muscles grew. Big deal, could be anything. No way in hell he gets denied, or a revolution happens.

On a side note, even if Sosa is cought with a syringe up his butt, he may still make it. I think 600 HRs might be PED-proof, just like 350 wins is PED-proof for pitchers.

[JDD]

Are you giving Ichiro credit for Japanese League time (also negating the 10-year rule), if not, I fail to see how Ichiro is a "virtual lock", but Pujols isn't mentioned.

Never underestimate a person's desire to be among the masses who are getting involved in "the hip thing to do".

Electing someone from Japan will be the hip thing to do five years after Ichiro retires.

[Windy City Fan]

The Grace interview was either in '05 or '06 if I recall, so Sosa was around 550 or more HR. I know there was a discussion on Sosa here in '06 that I referenced the Grace interview and it was fairly fresh in my mind when I posted it if I recall. I'd like to re-post a little calculation I did in that thread on what a clean Sosa might look like.

Just for fun, let's guess what Sammy's numbers would've been 1998-2002 without chemical enhancement. His previous career high in homeruns was 40, so let's say he averages 40 homeruns during this peak stretch. We'll say he hit .280 during this peak (which is generous since he never only topped .273 once, with a .300 season). We'll say he averaged 60 walks a year (better than his actual career high of 58 as of 1997). With an average of 600 at bats a year (roughly what he had during this stretch), that gives him an OBP of .345.

So his fictional 5 year average season looks like this:

.280 600 AB 168 Ht 60 BB 35 2B 2 3B 40 HR .545 SLG .345 OBP

Let's plut that in with the rest of his actual career, shall we?

.265 AVG
8396 AB
2224 HT
395 2B
44 3B
496 HR
734 BB
.499 SLG
.325 OBP
114 OPS+

That doesn't look very HOF, does it? I know the numbers are fictional and represent a rough guess at best, but it just shows how dependent Sammy is on those 5 steriod fueled years to make his case. Take away 1998-2002 and give any reasonable set of numbers based on his production both before and after and he looks positively like a non hall of famer.

Again, this was back in '06 so it doesn't include his final harrah with the Ranger where he posted an oh so impressive 106 OPS+ as a DH. That season would push his HR totals over 500, but drop his rate stats even lower in the process.

I haven't done a study, but if those numbers are close to accurate, I have to believe Sosa would have the lowest OPS+ of any corner outfielder in the HOF if he was elected and its not like he can fall back on great baserunning or fielding. I know because I watched him and while he had great natural fielding talent and speed as a young player, it faded and he was always an undisciplined bonehead who could be counted on to make as many mistakes and bad decisions as he would amazying plays.

[White Knight]

The Grace interview was either in '05 or '06 if I recall, so Sosa was around 550 or more HR. I know there was a discussion on Sosa here in '06 that I referenced the Grace interview and it was fairly fresh in my mind when I posted it if I recall. I'd like to re-post a little calculation I did in that thread on what a clean Sosa might look like.



Again, this was back in '06 so it doesn't include his final harrah with the Ranger where he posted an oh so impressive 106 OPS+ as a DH. That season would push his HR totals over 500, but drop his rate stats even lower in the process.

I haven't done a study, but if those numbers are close to accurate, I have to believe Sosa would have the lowest OPS+ of any corner outfielder in the HOF if he was elected and its not like he can fall back on great baserunning or fielding. I know because I watched him and while he had great natural fielding talent and speed as a young player, it faded and he was always an undisciplined bonehead who could be counted on to make as many mistakes and bad decisions as he would amazying plays.

I know you are doing a damn good job of making your point and looking up info, but this honestly doesn't change the fact that there's not a shred of evidence against him, other than he had a good peak and got somewhat bigger as he approaced his late 20's. If nothing else comes out in 5 years, I seriously doubt he'll be withheld.

As for the adjusted stats you posted, 496 HRs is a lot of HRs. If he managed to snug out 4 more and get to 500, he makes the HOF anyway. If you have 500 HRs and they know you never did PED's (or gamble or anything like that), you get in no matter how bad your OPS+ is. Do you agree on that?

[Brad Harris]

A couple of things in response to White Knight's posts:

1. The BBWAA do what they want. I can't recall a single instance where a sportswriter lost his job over his Hall of Fame ballot. Sure there's plenty of voters that ought to lose the privilege, but it hasn't happened and it won't happen. They vote for who they want, they have their own reasons (no matter how poor, inconsistent or hypocritical those opinions are) and they can be idiots and arses with virtual impugnity.

2. There's no contingent of Sammy Sosa acolytes waiting to revolt if their guy doesn't get enshrined. The closest thing I've ever seen to an angry advocacy group was Pete Rose fans/voters back in 1991 and those were unique circumstances indeed. Sosa was no more popular than dozens of other stars and as passionate as some fans may feel about their favorite candidates, there's no "torch and pitchfork" movement on the way if one such candidate is denied election.

3. The more reasonable approach to the Grace interview is to assume that it's more likely Grace has not changed his mind (in the absence of evidence to the contrary) since he originally made those statements. Logic aside, Sosa did very little in those last couple of seasons since the interview to change anyone's mind if they didn't already believe he was a Hall-of-Famer. How many people were really waiting for Sosa to inch past 600 home runs before making up their minds about him as a candidate? Sosa's peak years were already over. He wasn't a productive player after 2004. If 574 home runs weren't enough to make him a Hall of Famer, then those additional 35 home runs over the next three years weren't going to help him any.

4. To me, the Grace interview equates to "finger pointing" as much as Canseco's tell-alls. Sosa is definitely a suspect. He doesn't have to have someone shouting his name from the roof of the Sears Tower to be one. Forget that Sosa's incredible peak is completely unprecedented, perfectly in line with the steroid timeline and probably the single best example of suspicious circumstantial evidence by any player of the era. There's also the corked bat incident, which speaks towards Sosa's integrity, character, etc. Not much of a stretch to believe someone who would cork their bat might also take PEDs.

5. There are no automatic numbers (home runs, wins or anything else) that guarantee election. Some numbers act as solid indicators of election but that's not the same thing. To date only one PED-era player with 500+ HR has reached the ballot and we've all seen how poorly he's done. There's little reason to believe the voters won't treat other suspects equally harshly.

6. Whether or not you discount for PEDs, I think McGwire is a better candidate than Sosa, either way.

[KCGHOST]

Yep, the voters can pretty well do as they wish provided they don't start voting for someone not on the ballot. Sosa has been tainted with the Scarlet Letter (in this case an "S") by enough people that he has no chance of getting elected. That may be unfair, but humans are pretty big on the "where there's smoke there's fire" logic. And if you have ever seen Sammy in person you would be a believer. The guy is huge.

This era could be come just like the 1920's and 1930's in being overrepresented in the HoF.

[Windy City Fan]

I know you are doing a damn good job of making your point and looking up info, but this honestly doesn't change the fact that there's not a shred of evidence against him, other than he had a good peak and got somewhat bigger as he approaced his late 20's. If nothing else comes out in 5 years, I seriously doubt he'll be withheld.

As for the adjusted stats you posted, 496 HRs is a lot of HRs. If he managed to snug out 4 more and get to 500, he makes the HOF anyway. If you have 500 HRs and they know you never did PED's (or gamble or anything like that), you get in no matter how bad your OPS+ is. Do you agree on that?

I don't think 500 HR in this era of miniscule strike zones and shrunken parks is an automatic ticket. Standards do change. Prior to the retirement of Dave Kingman and a few other 70's sluggers, 400 HR was a guaranteed ticket to Cooperstown. However, the game had changed and no one considered Kingman to be a HoFer.

Speaking of Kingman, I'd ask you to compare the hypothetical clean Sosa totals I posted and the career marks of Dave Kingman (http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kingmda01.shtml). Their OPS+ is very close (Sosa is actually a point worse without even including his last season that only drags that stat down further). Both were below average OBP guys and above average sluggers. Kingman was a little worse at getting on base and little better at slugging. The only noticeable differences are batting average - which has a poor correlation to offensive value and neither of them were batting champs anyway - and Sosa manages to probably crawl above the 500 mark.

Another comparison I'd ask you to make is "clean Sosa" vs Fred McGriff (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcgrifr01.shtml). McGriff has more PA and far better rate stats (134 OPS+), plus none of the baggage that Sosa has. He's clearly the superior player, yet most folks feel he'll struggle to get into the HoF if he ever does. Now if McGriff struggles to get in, how does clean Sosa get an automatic ticket? Do the 7 homeruns that McGriff fell short of 500 mean that much to you?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

People I believe make the HOF who are currently not in or still active:
Greg Maddux - Could get record vote number
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz
Alex Rodriguez
Chipper Jones
Frank Thomas
Ken Griffey Jr.
Manny Ramirez
Randy Johnson
Mike Piazza
Jeff Kent
Derek Jeter
Jeff Bagwell
Trevor Hoffman
Mariano Rivera
Vladimir Guerrero
Ivan Rodriguez
Jimmy Rollins (needs 3-4 more trend years)
Ichiro Suzuki (assuming he plays 10 yrs)
Tim Raines (maybe VC selection)

Not sure
Barry Bonds
Sammy Sosa
Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGuire
Jim Thome
Billy Wagner
Craig Biggio
Omar Vizquel
Pedro Martinez
Miguel Tejada

Out:
Mike Mussina
Barry Larkin/Julio Franco
Gary Sheffield
Carlos Delgado
Curt Shilling
Juan Gonzalez
Harold Baines
Fred McGriff
Bobby Abreu
Luis Gonzalez
Andre Dawson
Bernie Williams
Larry Walker

[Windy City Fan]

Biggest Fan: I'm surprised you listed Biggio and Martinez as maybes. Both guys are locks. Biggio played 3 positions, got 3000 hits, and was overall an excellent player. Martinez is the best rate starting pitcher ever. His lack of durability hurts him in my overall rankings, but he's still clearly a HOF caliber player.

Also, Larkin, Sheffield, and Schilling as out? I personally support all three and think they will all eventually make it. Sheffield is the biggest question mark, but unless something comes out proving he was a regular PED user rather than someone who dabbled in it (supposedly unknowingly) I think he'll eventually get in after a long wait.

Are these picks your personal opinions on who is deserving or are you trying to predict what the writers will do?

[OleMissCub]

Greg Maddux - Could get record vote number


Unfortunately, there will be some slimy writer or two who won't vote for him just to try and be contrary and he won't get in unanimously because of it. They need to make the voting results public so we can know who these idiots are.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Biggest Fan: I'm surprised you listed Biggio and Martinez as maybes. Both guys are locks. Biggio played 3 positions, got 3000 hits, and was overall an excellent player. Martinez is the best rate starting pitcher ever. His lack of durability hurts him in my overall rankings, but he's still clearly a HOF caliber player.

Also, Larkin, Sheffield, and Schilling as out? I personally support all three and think they will all eventually make it. Sheffield is the biggest question mark, but unless something comes out proving he was a regular PED user rather than someone who dabbled in it (supposedly unknowingly) I think he'll eventually get in after a long wait.

Are these picks your personal opinions on who is deserving or are you trying to predict what the writers will do?

This is my personal opinion. I'm in personal agreement with Classic that 500Hr or 3000 hits doesn't guarentee enshrinement anymore. Players are more durable than ever and players with aggregate HOF stats like Harold Baines won't get in(unlike if Harild played 20+ years ago he would have gotten in).

-Craig Biggio was a fine player, but didn't have anymore than 2 or 3 outstanding seasons. His numbers are reminiscent of Baines where the aggregate total was better than the player was in reality. Don't get me wrong, he's a fine player so he could get in; just no a lock in my mind.

- Curt Shilling didn't do enough IMO. Although he was an outstanding Post season pitcher, his overall mark of 216W / 146L / 3.46ERA are subpar for HOF credentials.

- Barry Larkin falls just short in my opinion cause he wasn't durable enough. He has many very good season but nothing earth shattering. His MVP selection was a sham.

[Windy City Fan]

This is my personal opinion. I'm in personal agreement with Classic that 500Hr or 3000 hits doesn't guarentee enshrinement anymore. Players are more durable than ever and players with aggregate HOF stats like Harold Baines won't get in(unlike if Harild played 20+ years ago he would have gotten in).

-Craig Biggio was a fine player, but didn't have anymore than 2 or 3 outstanding seasons. His numbers are reminiscent of Baines where the aggregate total was better than the player was in reality. Don't get me wrong, he's a fine player so he could get in; just no a lock in my mind.

- Curt Shilling didn't do enough IMO. Although he was an outstanding Post season pitcher, his overall mark of 216W / 146L / 3.46ERA are subpar for HOF credentials.

- Barry Larkin falls just short in my opinion cause he wasn't durable enough. He has many very good season but nothing earth shattering. His MVP selection was a sham.

The difference between Biggio and Baines is simple. Biggio was a second baseman and Baines was a corner outfielder/DH. Offensive standards are VASTLY different for the two positions. Biggio is a top ten second baseman and easily makes the cut off for the HOF.

Schilling doesn't have some of the traditional counting stats, but over 3,000 innnings isn't exactly a short career either. His peak is easily HOF worthy, he just doesn't have much filler as he was injury prone early on and late in his career. His 127 ERA+ is good for 42nd best all time - easily HOF territory. Plus he's got the post season dominance with the Diamondbacks and the Bloody Sock with Boston. He's borderline without the post season, but 10-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 133 innings of post season games is enough to put him over the edge.

Larkin was injury prone, but he still managed to get 9000 PA while playing a demanding position like SS. Larkin was a great all around player. He hit for average, drew walks, had some pop, ran well and field well. He's got a case for top 10 at SS. Larkin was the best SS in the national league for a decade. He won 9 silver slugger awards from 1988 to 1999 and was a good fielder during that time as well. Larkin's lack of durability keeps him from being an inner circle all-time great.

[Senor Octobre]

Off the top of my head...

Active

Glavine, Tom
Griffey, Ken
Guerrero, Vlad
Hoffman, Trevor
Jeter, Derek
Johnson, Randy
Jones, Chipper
Kent, Jeff
Maddux, Greg
Martinez, Pedro
Mussina, Mike
Ramirez, Manny
Rivera, Mariano
Rodriguez, Alex
Rodriguez, Ivan
Schilling, Curt
Smoltz, John
Thomas, Frank
Thome, Jim

Retired/Not Yet Eligible

Alomar, Roberto
Bagwell, Jeff
Biggio, Craig
Brown, Kevin
Henderson, Rickey
Larkin, Barry
Martinez, Edgar
McGriff, Fred
Piazza, Mike

Deserving but PED questions may keep them out...

Bonds, Barry
Clemens, Roger
Palmeiro, Rafael
Sheffield, Gary
Sosa, Sammy

[Brad Harris]

What follows is a position-by-position breakdown. These reflect my opinion about who should be elected, not who will be elected. The lists include active and retired players who have not yet debuted on a BBWAA ballot. The "Worth Closer Examination" group are either borderline candidates, or people whose careers to-date have them on a borderline or better path and probably just need an additional few productive seasons.

The list...

Starting Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz
Worth Closer Examination: Kevin Brown, Kevin Appier, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt
Thumbs Down: David Cone, Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte, Al Leiter, David Wells, Kenny Rogers

Relief Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman
Worth Closer Examination: Billy Wagner
Thumbs Down: John Franco, Troy Percival, Brad Lidge, Jose Mesa

Catchers
Hall of Famers: Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez
Worth Closer Examination: Jorge Posada
Thumbs Down: Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, Benito Santiago, Mike Lieberthal

First Basemen
Hall of Famers: Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Fred McGriff, Albert Pujols
Worth Closer Examination: Jason Giambi, Lance Berkman, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Helton
Thumbs Down: Andres Galarraga, Mo Vaughn, John Olerud, Carlos Delgado, Mark Grace

Second Basemen
Hall of Famers: Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, Jeff Kent
Worth Closer Examination: Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Phillips, Chase Utley
Thumbs Down: Ray Durham, Bret Boone

Third Basemen
Hall of Famers: Chipper Jones
Worth Closer Examination: Scott Rolen, Robin Ventura, Aramis Ramirez, Troy Glaus
Thumbs Down: Matt Williams, Eric Chavez, Jeff Cirillo

Shortstops
Hall of Famers: Alex Rodriguez, Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter
Worth Closer Examination: Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada
Thumbs Down: Omar Vizquel, Nomar Garciaparra, Julio Franco

Left Fielders
Hall of Famers: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Manny Ramirez
Worth Closer Examination: Brian Giles
Thumbs Down: B.J. Surhoff, Luis Gonzalez, Moises Alou

Center Fielders
Hall of Famers: Ken Griffey Jr.
Worth Closer Examination: Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones
Thumbs Down: Steve Finley, Ellis Burks, Marquis Grissom, Carl Everett, Kenny Lofton, Johnny Damon

Right Fielders
Hall of Famers: Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki
Worth Closer Examination: Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker
Thumbs Down: Tim Salmon, Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders, Bobby Abreu, Juan Gonzalez

Designated Hitters
Hall of Famers: Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez
Worth Closer Examination: David Ortiz
Thumbs Down: Travis Hafner

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Just to name a few:

Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Griffey Jr.
A-rod
Mike Piazza
Tom Glavine
Curt Schilling
Pedro Martinez

Some players who will get in if they can keep playing at the same pace:
Albert Pujols (hasn't played very long; talk to me in 10 years)
Vladimir Guerrero
Ichiro- his lack of US baseball years will hurt him
Johan Santana
Roy Oswalt
Brad Lidge

[Senor Octobre]

Oh yeah, I forgot about Rivera and Hoffman. Good stuff Classic, thats a pretty exhaustive list. Some of these are tough calls, the following are borderline IMO...

Abreu, Bobby -- had some great years in philly, not so much in NY
Alou, Moises -- underrated career
Berkman, Lance -- if he continues his strong season, could likely be HOF worthy
Chavez, Eric -- looked good from 2000 to '04, has really dropped off
Delgado, Carlos -- not without 500 homers, even then nothings guaranteed
Edmonds, Jim
Garciaparra, Nomar -- if he can resurrect his career, he could have a shot
Giambi, Jason -- needs to stick around and have a few more good years, probable P.E.D. backlash
Giles, Brian -- had some GREAT years in Pittsburgh, only slightly above average since move to SD
Gonzalez, Luis -- long solid career, not really hall-worthy
Helton, Todd -- I really don't know what happened here
Jones, Andruw -- needs to teach himself how to hit again
Ortiz, David -- needs more '03 to '07-like seasons to catch E. Martinez
Pettitte, Andy -- needs more good years, probable P.E.D. backlash
Posada, Jorge -- needs a few more good seasons
Rolen, Scott
Tejada, Miguel -- not as good as everyone thinks, possible P.E.D. backlash
Vizquel, Omar -- please retire already Omar
Wagner, Billy

Appier, Kevin -- don't laugh, a lot like Saberhagen but without the awards, solid-to-good career
Burks, Ellis
Cone, David
Franco, John
Franco, Julio
Gonzalez, Juan
Lofton, Kenny
Olerud, John
Saberhagen, Brett
Vaughn, Mo
Ventura, Robin
Walker, Larry
Williams, Bernie
Williams, Matt

I'm not including Pujols, Utley, Ichiro, Oswalt, etc. as they haven't play the required 10 years yet, although I do feel they are all well on their way to hall-worthy careers.

[Paul Wendt]

What follows is a position-by-position breakdown. These reflect my opinion about who should be elected, not who will be elected. The lists include active and retired players who have not yet debuted on a BBWAA ballot.
Saberhagen is in the Hall of Merit.
He should have come up for rejection in Cooperstown.
Relief Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman
Worth Closer Examination: Billy Wagner
Thumbs Down: John Franco, Troy Percival, Jose Mesa
Jose Mesa should do well in Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
Did he do enough for Thumbs Down?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

The difference between Biggio and Baines is simple. Biggio was a second baseman and Baines was a corner outfielder/DH. Offensive standards are VASTLY different for the two positions. Biggio is a top ten second baseman and easily makes the cut off for the HOF.

Schilling doesn't have some of the traditional counting stats, but over 3,000 innnings isn't exactly a short career either. His peak is easily HOF worthy, he just doesn't have much filler as he was injury prone early on and late in his career. His 127 ERA+ is good for 42nd best all time - easily HOF territory. Plus he's got the post season dominance with the Diamondbacks and the Bloody Sock with Boston. He's borderline without the post season, but 10-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 133 innings of post season games is enough to put him over the edge.

Larkin was injury prone, but he still managed to get 9000 PA while playing a demanding position like SS. Larkin was a great all around player. He hit for average, drew walks, had some pop, ran well and field well. He's got a case for top 10 at SS. Larkin was the best SS in the national league for a decade. He won 9 silver slugger awards from 1988 to 1999 and was a good fielder during that time as well. Larkin's lack of durability keeps him from being an inner circle all-time great.

Biggio - You made a good case and like I said, he'll probably get in. Some of his years were at catcher and the outfield though, so he's not a pure play second baseman. I think he has enough numbers at second to get him in there, but I still think he had many so-so years and is more counting stats than great player. Should he be in though, probably.

Shilling - No one can convince me that Shilling should be inducted. I don't agree with you at all that his peak is HOF worthy. He didn't have much of a peak at all actually. He had 3 fantastic years and another Top 10 kinda year and thats it. He never won a Cy Young although he did come 2nd 3 times. Hos counting stats are not good enough IMO, and if you include Shilling, then the HOF will cease to become the most selective entity of the 4 major sports. The only thing separating Schilling from a Bob Welch is 133 great post season innings - and that's not enough for me to vote him in. Welch even has a Cy Young Schilling doesnt have. Also, you can add Orel Hershiser and his 7-5, 2.59 Postseason ERA (1 World Championship) in the Hall too. See the slippery slope here??

Larkin - I wouldn't complain with Larkin getting in as he was an all around good player but I think he was overated because there weren't many good hitting shortstops in his era outside of Ripken. His 9 Silver Slugger awards is testament to that fact. The era of the good offensive SS arrived in the class after Larkin with the likes of Tejada, Jeter, Rodriguez all taking the position to a new offensive level. If Larking goes in, then all of the aforementioned players should get in too and also the likes of Julio Franco and Garciaparra and probably Jimmy Rollins should get strong consideration also.

I forgot to add Ivan Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero to HOF probables.

[OleMissCub]

Garciaparra, Nomar -- if he can resurrect his career, he could have a shot

No way. He's done.

Rolen, Scott

I think you can stick a fork in him too. I used to think he was a surefire Hall of Famer, but now I think that is extremely unlikely.

Taking a look at the rest of the 3rd baseman out there that have played ten years already...

Chipper Jones (36) - I think he's an easy Hall of Famer.
Eric Chavez (30) - was setting himself up to have a run in the early 2000's, but his production is going downhill fast, so I think he's very unlikely.
Troy Glaus (almost 32) - still putting up good numbers at age 31, and is only five HR away from 300. He should be able to get 400.
Adrian Beltre (29) - I don't really know what to think about him.
Mike Lowell (34) - with only 197 HR and 1400 hits at age 34, I don't see him putting up anything close to the numbers that voters would want.
Aramis Ramirez (just turned 30) - Still very much in his prime, he'll likely get over 400 HR.

Beltre, Ramirez, and Glaus all seem to be on pretty similar paths as far as their "money" stats are concerned i.e. HR, RBI, hits.

Beltre - 1524 games, 233 HR, 831 RBI, 1530 hits
Ramirez - 1272 games, 239 HR, 836 RBI, 1339 hits
Glaus - 1344 games, 295 HR, 844 RBI, 1225 hits

[henrich]

What follows is a position-by-position breakdown. These reflect my opinion about who should be elected, not who will be elected. The lists include active and retired players who have not yet debuted on a BBWAA ballot. The "Worth Closer Examination" group are either borderline candidates, or people whose careers to-date have them on a borderline or better path and probably just need an additional few productive seasons.

The list...

Starting Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz
Worth Closer Examination: Kevin Brown, Kevin Appier, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt
Thumbs Down: David Cone, Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte, Al Leiter, David Wells

Relief Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman
Worth Closer Examination: Billy Wagner
Thumbs Down: John Franco, Troy Percival, Brad Lidge, Jose Mesa

Catchers
Hall of Famers: Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez
Worth Closer Examination: Jorge Posada
Thumbs Down: Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, Benito Santiago, Mike Lieberthal

First Basemen
Hall of Famers: Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Fred McGriff, Albert Pujols
Worth Closer Examination: Jason Giambi, Lance Berkman, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Helton
Thumbs Down: Andres Galarraga, Mo Vaughn, John Olerud, Carlos Delgado, Mark Grace

Second Basemen
Hall of Famers: Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, Jeff Kent
Worth Closer Examination: Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Phillips, Chase Utley
Thumbs Down: Ray Durham, Bret Boone

Third Basemen
Hall of Famers: Chipper Jones
Worth Closer Examination: Scott Rolen, Robin Ventura, Aramis Ramirez, Troy Glaus
Thumbs Down: Matt Williams, Eric Chavez, Jeff Cirillo

Shortstops
Hall of Famers: Alex Rodriguez, Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter
Worth Closer Examination: Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada
Thumbs Down: Omar Vizquel, Nomar Garciaparra, Julio Franco

Left Fielders
Hall of Famers: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Manny Ramirez
Worth Closer Examination: Brian Giles
Thumbs Down: B.J. Surhoff, Luis Gonzalez, Moises Alou

Center Fielders
Hall of Famers: Ken Griffey Jr.
Worth Closer Examination: Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones
Thumbs Down: Steve Finley, Ellis Burks, Marquis Grissom, Carl Everett, Kenny Lofton, Johnny Damon

Right Fielders
Hall of Famers: Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki
Worth Closer Examination: Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker
Thumbs Down: Tim Salmon, Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders, Bobby Abreu, Juan Gonzalez

Designated Hitters
Hall of Famers: Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez
[i]Worth Closer Examination: David Ortiz
Thumbs Down: Travis Hafner

Just responding to the pitchers at this time:
Clemens 23,322, Johnson R. 18476, Maddux 18,133, Glavine 14,730, Smoltz 13,675, Martinez P. 12,455, Schilling 11,396, Cone 11,223, Mussina 11,113, David Wells 8856, Kevin Brown 8787, Pettitte 8564, Al Leiter 7454, K. Rogers 7136, Wakefield 6450, Moyer 6365.

Relief pitchers All-time
Lee Smith 12,291
Rivera 12,258
Hoffman 10,975
Franco J. 10,645
Gossage 10,552
Sutter 10,311
Myers R. 9889
Reardon 9312
Lyle 8853
Wilhelm 8775 (Best in his era)
Quisenberry 8709

Wagner B. 7584 thus far 19th all-time
I look at anyone at 10,000 as having a legitimate shot at being in the HOF.

[RuthMayBond]

Just responding to the pitchers at this time:
Clemens 23,322, Johnson R. 18476, Maddux 18,133, Glavine 14,730, Smoltz 13,675, Martinez P. 12,455, Schilling 11,396, Cone 11,223, Mussina 11,113, David Wells 8856, Kevin Brown 8787, Pettitte 8564, Al Leiter 7454, K. Rogers 7136, Wakefield 6450, Moyer 6365.

Relief pitchers All-time
Lee Smith 12,291
Rivera 12,258
Hoffman 10,975
Franco J. 10,645
Gossage 10,552
Sutter 10,311
Myers R. 9889
Reardon 9312
Lyle 8853
Wilhelm 8775 (Best in his era)
Quisenberry 8709

Wagner B. 7584 thus far 19th all-time
I look at anyone at 10,000 as having a legitimate shot at being in the HOF.All right, out with the formula

[henrich]

All right, out with the formula

wins x 10, saves x 15, Shutouts x 100, K's x 1, Gold gloves x 100

+

World Series championships x 500
League Championships x 250
Playoffs x 100

+
League dominances within a season represented by the following categories:
Saves, Wins, E.R.A. by being a top 10 finisher in any of these categories one would receive 100 points for 1st place, 90 points for 2nd place, 10 points for 10th place.

In the MVP and Cy Young voting one would receive 500 points and then 2nd place 90 points same as above on down to 10th place 10 points.

Rolaids Relief award= 500 points, no points for 2nd place.

[RuthMayBond]

wins x 10, saves x 15, Shutouts x 100, K's x 1, Gold gloves x 100

+

World Series championships x 500
League Championships x 250
Playoffs x 100

+
League dominances within a season represented by the following categories:
Saves, Wins, E.R.A. by being a top 10 finisher in any of these categories one would receive 100 points for 1st place, 90 points for 2nd place, 10 points for 10th place.

In the MVP and Cy Young voting one would receive 500 points and then 2nd place 90 points same as above on down to 10th place 10 points.

Rolaids Relief award= 500 points, no points for 2nd place.
You realize that wins, saves, shutouts, K, playoffs are team-dependent (and many are era (time period)-dependent)

Award voting can be very inaccurate

[henrich]

You realize that wins, saves, shutouts, K, playoffs are team-dependent (and many are era (time period)-dependent)

Award voting can be very inaccurate

I look at as a matter of how much press a player will receive. The amount of attention a 300 game winner gets is pretty incredible and a lock for the HOF. Wins while team dependent generate a certain amount of exposure and therefore more time for a writer to think about a certain player when writing his/her daily story.

Award voting the same came be said, more exposure to an MVP candidate or a Cy Young winner. We know that Greg Maddux is a certain HOF player by some of the awards he's won and the exposure that has brought him, including his gold gloves.

There always seems to be a guy constantly in the playoffs, is that by coincidence? Why is that at the poker table, the same guys are always in the championship in the World Series of poker, they are winners. Some guys have that about them, and the only way to measure it is to give them credit for being in the playoffs. It's also, one more time to see them play by the writers, especially when their hometown team is out of the playoffs, they are forced to watch another team play, and again it's more exposure.

This is meant as a HOF predictor for candidates, and at times it shows where based upon their own criterion, they miss players, and that's where the discussion/arguments begin. Bert Blyleven is where I would start that argument. Can you think of anything more dominant to do than to strikeout a major league player? How about a shutout of a major league team? That's pretty hard to do I would think. Blyleven has 3700 K's and 60 shutouts. That's pretty amazing feat of dominance I would think, and so do the writers based upon their previous votes and eventually he will make the HOF. It just takes time for 550 voters to get together on a player.

[RuthMayBond]

There always seems to be a guy constantly in the playoffs, is that by coincidence? Why is that at the poker table, the same guys are always in the championship in the World Series of poker, they are winners. Some guys have that about them, and the only way to measure it is to give them credit for being in the playoffs.Except poker isn't a team sport. Time to induct Charlie Silvera

<Blyleven has 3700 K's and 60 shutouts. That's pretty amazing feat of dominance I would think, and so do the writers based upon their previous votes and eventually he will make the HOF. It just takes time for 550 voters to get together on a player.>

I guess Bly (and George Davis) were no Catfish Hunter

[henrich]

Except poker isn't a team sport. Time to induct Charlie Silvera

<Blyleven has 3700 K's and 60 shutouts. That's pretty amazing feat of dominance I would think, and so do the writers based upon their previous votes and eventually he will make the HOF. It just takes time for 550 voters to get together on a player.>

I guess Bly (and George Davis) were no Catfish Hunter

Better marketing agents needed here.

[RuthMayBond]

Better marketing agents needed here.Hopefully you're only talking about the latter

[henrich]

Hopefully you're only talking about the latter

I guess George Davis had his with Bill James. I think Bly gets frustrated. Two years ago, it really stung him. Gossage had that time he went through too, and I don't think it helped either one of them to have a little cry baby moment.

[RuthMayBond]

I guess George Davis had his with Bill James. I think Bly gets frustrated. Two years ago, it really stung him. Gossage had that time he went through too, and I don't think it helped either one of them to have a little cry baby moment.I meant, I hope you weren't implying that Silvera will, or :eek: should get in. James hasn't gotten in other guys that he's wanted, though.

[henrich]

I meant, I hope you weren't implying that Silvera will, or :eek: should get in. James hasn't gotten in other guys that he's wanted, though.


I agree that he's been unable to bend some ears on some candidates, but I think that George Davis may have been a credit to James' work. As far as the "latter" comment, sorry I misunderstood, I was thinking of Catfish Hunter having a cooler nickname than either Davis or Blyleven.:)

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I've just come to the conclusion, after years of not really examining his numbers closely, that Bert Blyleven should be in the HOF too. For 15 years at the start of his career, his numbers were always upper-echelon. His highest ERA in that time (full season) was 3.91, which was still below the league avg. by 0.37 runs... Its undisputed his first 15 years were HOF caliber, only the last 5-6 brought the overall numbers significantly lower. He was actually pretty stingy giving up the HR before 1986. The more I look at his numbers, the better I like them. It's too bad Bert always suffered from a lack of run support, or he EASILY wins 300+ games.

Blyleven also was Top-10 in ERA 10 times, Top-10 in shutouts 10 times, Top-10 in wins 6 times, top-10 in strikeouts 15 times, Top-10 in complete games 13 times & an amazing top-10 in adjusted ERA 12 separate times. Seemingly no one knows that Blyleven was an instrumental pitcher during the Twins '87 championship run & owns a 4-1, 2.41 ERA career postseason record. Quite the resume.

Why he isn't in, and why it's taken this long in a complete travesty that defies logic. People talk about how Curt Schilling or how Kevin Brown should be in the HOF, but I can tell you Blyleven is more worthy than those pitchers. It really doesn't make sense to me. Bert Blyleven is without a doubt the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball; he gets none whatsoever.

My guess is that the perception of him being a gopher ball pitcher really hurts him, as well as the less than sparkling finish to his career (although he had an amazing renaissance in 1989), and the fact he was also finished just behind league lerders in statistical categories. In fact, doesn't Blyleven still hold the record for most HR in a season??

Anyway, his hall introduction is long overdue and looking more embarassing for the BBWAA writers keeping him out. Anybody know what % of votes he got last time and how many more years of eligibilty?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I was shocked to see Bert Blyleven's HOF voting percentage in years before '06. I had no idea they were that low

Year Votes Pct
1998 83 17.55%
1999 70 14.08%
2000 87 17.43%
2001 121 23.50%
2002 124 26.27%
2003 145 29.23%
2004 179 35.38%
2005 211 40.899%

That's unbelievable low for a pitcher of his calibre. Was he that unpopular with the media or something?

And another crazy stat:

There are only eight pitchers in history who rank in the top 20 in wins, shutouts, and strikeouts. Here is the list:

.... ..................Wins ..SO .. SHO
Bert Blyleven ..... .17th 5th 8th
Steve Carlton ...... 6th 4th 13th
Ferguson Jenkins . 19th 11th 17th
Walter Johnson .. 1st . 9th . 1st
Gaylord Perry ... . 12th 8th 14th
Nolan Ryan ...... ...8th 1st . 6th
Tom Seaver .... .. 13th 6th 6th
Don Sutton ..... . 8th .7th .9th

[Honus Wagner Rules]

One big reason Blyleven is not in is because of the Voter's infatuation with the 20 win season. Many voters equate winning 20 games with "excellence" and Blyleven only had one 20 win season. :rolleyes: Blyleven had 60 career shutouts which is 9th all-time! Of the eight ahead of him the top five are Dead Ball era pitchers. Since WW II only Spahn (63), Seaver (61), and Ryan (61) have more. Greg Maddux has 35, Randy Johnson has 37, and Clemens has 46.

[lyrical]

One big reason Blyleven is not in is because of the Voter's infatuation with the 20 win season. Many voters equate winning 20 games with "excellence" and Blyleven only had one 20 win season. :rolleyes: Blyleven had 60 career shutouts which is 9th all-time! Of the eight ahead of him the top five are Dead Ball era pitchers. Since WW II only Spahn (63), Seaver (61), and Ryan (61) have more. Greg Maddux has 35, Randy Johnson has 37, and Clemens has 46.

The other reason oft cited is that he has a low career winning percentage, 287 wins to 250 losses, so to voters he's a .500 pitcher and that doesn't meet their definition of excellence. :rolleyes: But yeah, it's totally ridiculous that he isn't in the HOF.

[J W]

The writers are very much within their rights to with hold HOF inductions for Sosa. This isn't a legal trial where there is a standard of proof. If the voters feel (as I do) that Sosa used PEDs, then they are free to penalize him for that in their votes. My guess is Sosa, like McGwire, will wait a long time before he gets inducted, if he ever does. Bonds and Clemens will be interesting cases because both were undeniable HOF talents before they came into contact with PEDs.

Back to the point of the thread, these guys are virtual locks in my mind:

Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Tom Glavine
Greg Maddux
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
Frank Thomas
Vladimir Guerro
Gary Sheffield
Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Jeff Kent
Chipper Jones
Ken Griffey Jr.
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Manny Ramirez
Ichiro Suzuki

Am I missing something here, or isn't Sheffield a confirmed user? At the very least, he has more evidence against him as Sosa or McGwire, as he has admitted to "unknowingly" taking steroid cream. And Sheffield is no Bonds or Clemens where he was a HOF player with clear visible and statistical evidence as to when he started using.

Someone please point me out why the writers are going to give Sheffield a free pass, if they are going to rail against Sosa (and have already done so against McGwire).

[Skin & Bones]

Am I missing something here, or isn't Sheffield a confirmed user? At the very least, he has more evidence against him as Sosa or McGwire, as he has admitted to "unknowingly" taking steroid cream. And Sheffield is no Bonds or Clemens where he was a HOF player with clear visible and statistical evidence as to when he started using.

Someone please point me out why the writers are going to give Sheffield a free pass, if they are going to rail against Sosa (and have already done so against McGwire).

Sheffield didn't break records, so that automatically gives him a free pass in many people's minds.

BTW, anyone think it maybe possible that Grace is jealous of Sosa? Why is that out of the realm of possibility?

[Brad Harris]

Sheffield didn't break records, so that automatically gives him a free pass in many people's minds.

BTW, anyone think it maybe possible that Grace is jealous of Sosa? Why is that out of the realm of possibility?

So anytime a player is asked whether a teammate is a future Hall-of-Famer and they say no, we should suspect that interviewee of being jealous? :laugh

[RuthMayBond]

So anytime a player is asked whether a teammate is a future Hall-of-Famer and they say no, we should suspect that interviewee of being jealous? :laughIf the question is being asked about Greg Maddux or ARod, I'd say YES

[STLCards2]

Am I missing something here, or isn't Sheffield a confirmed user? At the very least, he has more evidence against him as Sosa or McGwire, as he has admitted to "unknowingly" taking steroid cream. And Sheffield is no Bonds or Clemens where he was a HOF player with clear visible and statistical evidence as to when he started using.

Someone please point me out why the writers are going to give Sheffield a free pass, if they are going to rail against Sosa (and have already done so against McGwire).

I sleptwalked through the whole Sheffield thing, but if I am not mistaken, isn't it accepted that Sheffield only used for one season? Of course we don't know how long McGwire used, but it is generaly asumed that it was much longer than one season.

Maybe somebody who remebers better can tell me why I remember the "one season thing" with Shefield.

[jalbright]

So anytime a player is asked whether a teammate is a future Hall-of-Famer and they say no, we should suspect that interviewee of being jealous? :laugh

Isn't that at least as sensible as using that "no" by the teammate as proof of PED use, though? Either way, it's supposition from vague evidence.

[Granderson4Prez]

I think that some people give Sheff a pass because, of all of the guys who have used the whole "I didn't know it was steroids" excuse, he is one that could plausibly be telling the truth.

[willshad]

What follows is a position-by-position breakdown. These reflect my opinion about who should be elected, not who will be elected. The lists include active and retired players who have not yet debuted on a BBWAA ballot. The "Worth Closer Examination" group are either borderline candidates, or people whose careers to-date have them on a borderline or better path and probably just need an additional few productive seasons.

The list...

Starting Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz
Worth Closer Examination: Kevin Brown, Kevin Appier, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt
Thumbs Down: David Cone, Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte, Al Leiter, David Wells, Kenny Rogers

Relief Pitchers
Hall of Famers: Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman
Worth Closer Examination: Billy Wagner
Thumbs Down: John Franco, Troy Percival, Brad Lidge, Jose Mesa

Catchers
Hall of Famers: Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez
Worth Closer Examination: Jorge Posada
Thumbs Down: Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, Benito Santiago, Mike Lieberthal

First Basemen
Hall of Famers: Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Fred McGriff, Albert Pujols
Worth Closer Examination: Jason Giambi, Lance Berkman, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Helton
Thumbs Down: Andres Galarraga, Mo Vaughn, John Olerud, Carlos Delgado, Mark Grace

Second Basemen
Hall of Famers: Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, Jeff Kent
Worth Closer Examination: Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Phillips, Chase Utley
Thumbs Down: Ray Durham, Bret Boone

Third Basemen
Hall of Famers: Chipper Jones
Worth Closer Examination: Scott Rolen, Robin Ventura, Aramis Ramirez, Troy Glaus
Thumbs Down: Matt Williams, Eric Chavez, Jeff Cirillo

Shortstops
Hall of Famers: Alex Rodriguez, Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter
Worth Closer Examination: Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada
Thumbs Down: Omar Vizquel, Nomar Garciaparra, Julio Franco

Left Fielders
Hall of Famers: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Manny Ramirez
Worth Closer Examination: Brian Giles
Thumbs Down: B.J. Surhoff, Luis Gonzalez, Moises Alou

Center Fielders
Hall of Famers: Ken Griffey Jr.
Worth Closer Examination: Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones
Thumbs Down: Steve Finley, Ellis Burks, Marquis Grissom, Carl Everett, Kenny Lofton, Johnny Damon

Right Fielders
Hall of Famers: Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki
Worth Closer Examination: Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker
Thumbs Down: Tim Salmon, Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders, Bobby Abreu, Juan Gonzalez

Designated Hitters
Hall of Famers: Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez
Worth Closer Examination: David Ortiz
Thumbs Down: Travis Hafner


How can Giambi be 'worth a look' but Delgado be 'thumbs down'? Delgado has better career triple crown numbers, a peak nearly as good, plus no PED issues. Giambi may be slightly better offensively on a game per game basis from a sabermetric standpoint, but thats all hes got on Carlos.

[jalbright]

Willshad,

If you're going to use so little of a message you're quoting, please edit the quote. Thanks.