Really, Colorado? Beltran for Holliday?

[Lovernotafighter]

Apparently rumors have spread that the Rockies are looking to shop around with Matt Holiday in attempt to get someone of equivalent talent before the end of the 2009 season.

To Check out the full story follow this link:

http://www.hardballreport.com/content/view/1325/67/

[digglahhh]

Didn't read the link, but it doesn't make any sense. Regardless of which player you'd rather have, if you can afford Beltran, why not just resign Holliday?

Not being able to resign him after next year would be the only legit reason to want to trade the guy, but that reason is completely undermined by swapping him for a guy making $16-18 (whatever) million.

[dmbfan]

If you read the SI.com article, it clearly states that the Rockies inquired about trading Holliday for Beltran and were told by the Mets that Beltran is off limits. A good move by the Mets, IMO. Don't expect to see Matt Holliday in a Mets uniform this season.

[Zito75]

And don't expect to see Holliday in a Rock's uniform next season.

[Lovernotafighter]

Holliday's going to get a huge contract. Probably bigger than Beltran, but I don't think it's so much that the Rockies can't pay Holliday's salary, it's just that they want a shorter contract and don't want to pay the bonus money.

At least that's what I took away from it. Oh, and they're trying to get equal value for Holliday, which probably won't happen this season, and definitely won't next season.

[digglahhh]

but I don't think it's so much that the Rockies can't pay Holliday's salary, it's just that they want a shorter contract and don't want to pay the bonus money.

Too bad Helton got hurt. If they could find a way to trade Helton and not eat a lot of the money, that would go a long way in freeing up money to sign Holliday. Helton is the highest paid player in the NL this season, and he's set to earn 19M per through 2011.

[doctorpancake]

Yes, as was preiviously said, it would make no sense to trade Matt Holliday for Beltran. Holliday won't be a Met this year. As a Met fan, I wouldn't give up any prospects for him either. I certainly wouldn't trade Mike Pelfrey for him, after what he's shown lately.

Holliday is a career .270 hitter away from Coors Field. He could become a much less prolific offensive player in a different uniform.

[Lovernotafighter]

Yeah, if you could get rid of Helton's terrible contract, that would be the best thing to do. But no one on earth would take that (not even the Yankees).

As far as Holliday away from home goes, I think it's unfair to label him as only a product of Coors Field. He's hitting .310 on the road this year, and hit well away from there last year too. I think he's progressing as a hitter, so he very well could have been a product of Coors early on, but I think he's now just one of the best hitters in the game.

[Brooklyn]

The Mets need a corner outfielder, that is not debatable. But why would they trade one starting outfielder for another? They'd be in the same hole, needing another outfielder.

Beltran is also an outstanding center fielder. I'm disappointed by his prodcution, but wouldn't take Beltran for Holliday straight up - I think Beltran is a better ball player (although the Mets did overpay for him)

Someone mentioned Holliday's "Coors effect". He is closer this year, but look at his career numbers:

Home: .364 / .427 / .659. HR every 15.8 at bats
Road: .277 / .341 / .449/ HR every 30.7 at bats

Huge difference. This year isn't as bad, but still noticeable:

Home: .368 / .441 / .638. HR every 18.1 at bats
Road: .301 / .400 / .459/ HR every 29.2 at bats

His road stats this year are very respectible, althought that .459 slugging would only put him around the mid-point of NL players would currently qualify for the batting title. Whoever gives him a lot of money really needs to thing through it carefully.

I'd still like him as my corner outfielder; but I wouldn' trade much of value for him, and certainly not Beltran

[choog]

^^^ I don't think that Holliday would maintain these splits if he moved to another stadium though. I can understand the splits between the HR's but the avg? A single is a single in every ball park. Maybe he just performs better in front of a home crowd.

[Brooklyn]

A single is a single in every ball park. Maybe he just performs better in front of a home crowd.

Not necessarily. There are two reasons that Colorado is such a great hitters park. One, the ball carries better in the thin air. Two, pitches don't break as much in the low humidity. The fact that pitches don't break as much will lead to more hits.

This effect has been diminished somewhat with the use of the humidor. But the splits are still there, just not as dramatic as they were.

I would agree that it is probalby harder for him to adjust to road pitching than it would be if he didn't play in Colorado. But I wouldn't risk $20 million on that

[Old Sweater]

^^^ I don't think that Holliday would maintain these splits if he moved to another stadium though. I can understand the splits between the HR's but the avg? A single is a single in every ball park. Maybe he just performs better in front of a home crowd.

It's the single that is the easiest to get at Coors Field which really boosts the stats. Big outfield with outfielders further back.

Coors Field was 9th or 10th in HR's allowed last year.


Add in the Coors Field Hangover effect and the inflated home road splits would effect every player in MLB.

[Old Sweater]

Not necessarily. There are two reasons that Colorado is such a great hitters park. One, the ball carries better in the thin air. Two, pitches don't break as much in the low humidity. The fact that pitches don't break as much will lead to more hits.

This effect has been diminished somewhat with the use of the humidor. But the splits are still there, just not as dramatic as they were.

I would agree that it is probalby harder for him to adjust to road pitching than it would be if he didn't play in Colorado. But I wouldn't risk $20 million on that

Please explain the near same home & away ERA splits for the last 3 years for the Rockies pitchers then??????

Or the .549 home winning percentage with all the crappy pitching we have had with the visiting teams also getting to hit at Coors Field.

If you think what a Rockies hitter hits on the road is what he would hit all the time at sea level you are just fooling yourself and should go check out how the Rockies sluggers done before and after Coors Field.

[Lovernotafighter]

Part of the reason why the Rockies pitchers are having more success is because the front office is wising up and getting sinker-ball type of pitchers who don't throw a lot of fly balls. Also, sticking the balls in the humidor is also helping.

[NYMets523]

It's not true. For one, it makes no sense economically. The Rockies could probably sign Holliday for the amount they'd have to pay Beltran.

[skyking162]

This would be a great trade for the Rockies. Beltran's a complete stud, and even at $18.5MM per year is underpaid. He's a more valuable player than Matt Holliday, who is one of the top 15 to 20 position players in the majors himself. For those disappointed with Beltran's offensive stats, get over it. You were spoiled in 2006. He steals bases at an all-time great rate. He plays center field (which is like the shortstop position of the outfield). And he plays center field extremely well. When you add it all together, he's one of the five best players in the majors. Given that he's signed for three more years while Holliday's signed for one makes him an even more valuable asset.

Sure, Dan O'Dowd was probably crazy/arrogant to offer the deal, but if there's even a chance that Omar Minaya doesn't know what he has in Beltran and accepts, it doesn't seem so crazy.

[Brooklyn]

Please explain the near same home & away ERA splits for the last 3 years for the Rockies pitchers then??????

Or the .549 home winning percentage with all the crappy pitching we have had with the visiting teams also getting to hit at Coors Field.

If you think what a Rockies hitter hits on the road is what he would hit all the time at sea level you are just fooling yourself and should go check out how the Rockies sluggers done before and after Coors Field.

I can't explain the near identical ERA the last three years - I wouldn't have thought so. But can you explain why Holliday hits so much better at home? Or for that matter, why the whole Rockies team hits so much better at home?

2008: Home: .280 / .355 / .472 Road: .238 / .309 / .354
2007: Home: .298 / .372 / .480 Road: .261 / .336 / .395
2006: Home: .294 / .366 / .459 Road: .247 / .316 / .408
2005: Home: .300 / .366 / .460 Road: .232 / .299 / .359

A lot of teams have better home hitting stats than road. But this is dramatic. Are you saying that Coors isn't helping Holliday?

If you read my post, I didn't say that what Holliday hits on the road is what he'd hit all the time at sea level. But my point is that he won't put up the big numbers he is putting up now. Any team that goes after him must realize that, or will likely be disappointed.

You asked how Rockies sluggers have done before and after Coors. Probably not fair to look too long ago in pre-humidor days. Who would you consider a slugger that you'd put in this category? I can't think of anyone in the last few years that would really fit that description, anyone you have in mind?

[NYMets523]

For those disappointed with Beltran's offensive stats, get over it. You were spoiled in 2006.
What is disappointing is how he's feast or famine. He'll go on a tear for 2 weeks and then be an automatic out for 3 weeks. He's also a guess hitter. He'll take a 2-0 and 2-1 fastball down the middle and then go after the next pitch resulting in a pop up, ground out, or strike out. He is not a guy who can carry a team offensively.

He steals bases at an all-time great rate.
He rarely steals anymore. He also only steals if he knows the base is there for the taking. He's not an aggressive base stealer.

He plays center field (which is like the shortstop position of the outfield). And he plays center field extremely well.
No one denies that.

When you add it all together, he's one of the five best players in the majors.
That's a huge stretch.

[abolishthedh]

What is disappointing is how he's feast or famine. He'll go on a tear for 2 weeks and then be an automatic out for 3 weeks. He's also a guess hitter. He'll take a 2-0 and 2-1 fastball down the middle and then go after the next pitch resulting in a pop up, ground out, or strike out. He is not a guy who can carry a team offensively.

As a longterm fan of Beltran from his days in KC, I have to point out that this quote would apply to 95% of players. The players who can carry a team for lengthy stretches are few and far between. Both New York teams have trouble understanding that.

Players who were not feast or famine: Tony Gwynn, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Rod Carew,.... I'll be sitting here a while to add to the list.

As a longterm fan of the Royals (my second favorite team, I suppose), George Brett can be thankful he didn't play in New York.:D George was hot and cold, and the fans sweated through his "down" years of 1981, 1984 or 1986.

Holliday for Beltran would make no sense at all for Colorado, although its true that none of us know how the new stadium for the Mets will play for hitters or pitchers.

[NYMets523]

As a longterm fan of Beltran from his days in KC, I have to point out that this quote would apply to 95% of players. The players who can carry a team for lengthy stretches are few and far between. Both New York teams have trouble understanding that.

95% of players aren't making $18M.

[skyking162]

What is disappointing is how he's feast or famine. He'll go on a tear for 2 weeks and then be an automatic out for 3 weeks. He's also a guess hitter.

Can you explain how this type of performance is worse than a player with similar production over the long haul, but who's extremely consistent?

Calling Beltran one of the top five players in the league was overdoing it a bit, I admit. He's definitely currently top fifteen and probably in the 10-12 range.

[digglahhh]

Can you explain how this type of performance is worse than a player with similar production over the long haul, but who's extremely consistent?

It's more painful to watch, as a Mets fan I understand that. But, skyking is correct. In fact, I remember reading research (can't remember it well enough to cite, but it was posted at one point in the Stats forum), that the feast or famine style is more valuable. When players go on streaks like that, they can ostensibly win games on their own - meaning there's a greater chance their production actually leads to a win. The constant 1-4 with 1 RBI doesn't have the effect.

Of course, you probably can't have an entire team of guys like that, because then you'll wind up with a lot of superfluous runs, and goose eggs.

Calling Beltran one of the top five players in the league was overdoing it a bit, I admit. He's definitely currently top fifteen and probably in the 10-12 range.

I'd agree with this - position players, obviously.

[NYMets523]

Can you explain how this type of performance is worse than a player with similar production over the long haul, but who's extremely consistent?
Because it's not consistent.

Also, take a look at his numbers with 2 outs, RISP for this year:

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
63 54 8 0 1 0 10 9 3 11 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 .148 .270 .185 .455

[Westlake]

Because it's not consistent.


So what, Joe Morgan?

[digglahhh]

So what, Joe Morgan?

Basically, the point is, he's no Gary Sheffield.

[digglahhh]

Because it's not consistent.

Also, take a look at his numbers with 2 outs, RISP for this year:

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
63 54 8 0 1 0 10 9 3 11 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 .148 .270 .185 .455

That's one (partial) season, 63 PAs - is that enough to encapsulate who Carlos Beltran is, considering he has about 6,000 career MLB PAs?

These are his #s for his career: 280 .355 .495 .850

These are his #s for his career w/ 2outs, RISP .266 .364 .461 .825

Do you see a vast difference, or are you cherry-picking?