400 Win Shares and the HOF

[Appling]

Bill James has outlined a number of "qualifications" for potential members of the Hall of Fame -- His Black Ink Test, Grey Ink Test and the like. But perhaps the most simple and accurate test is the player's Total Win Shares for his career.

In his book "Win Shares" Bill James lists 44 players with career "Total Win Shares" of 400 or more. 39 of this group are already in the Hall of Fame -- and four of the other five are stars who who should be elected on their first HOF ballot:
Barry Bonds 572 (thru 2002)
Rickey Henderson 530
Cal Ripken, Jr. 427
Paul Molitor 414
Of course, the fifth player over 400 is Pete Rose (547 WS)

IMO there should be no question on the HOF qualifications of anyone with 400+ Win Shares. In fact, most eligible players with 350 WS or more are already in the Hall of Fame.

The most contraversial members seem to be players with less than 300 career Win Shares (Luis Apparico 293? Kiki Cuyler 292? George Sisler 292? Kirby Puckett 281? Bill Terry 278? Ed Walsh 265? Lloyd Waner 245?) Players with fewer than 300 Win Shares may still belong because of a few great seasons, but anyone over 400 should be almost automatic.

If only 44 players have so far achieved the 400 WS standard, then a few about to be voted on should be easy choices: Bonds, Henderson, Ripken and Molitor are over 400 (as listed above) --plus Tony Gwynn 398 and Wade Boggs 394. Any argument on these six candidates?

[Sandman]

Well, as probably a direct result, if you have 400 win shares, you have the other numbers you need to get into the HOF.

[J W]

Could not have put it better than Sandman, so, just voicing my agreement.

[Brad Harris]

While I oppose automatic induction based on any statistic, I do agree that, in my own mind, these guys are shoo-ins at the point they cross that threshold. In fact, I believe that James said he considered 300+ to be Hall of Fame worthy (except for pitchers and catchers, who tend, generally, to be about 50 ws behind).

[Appling]

Originally posted by Chancellor
...In fact, I believe that James said he considered 300+ to be Hall of Fame worthy (except for pitchers and catchers, who tend, generally, to be about 50 ws behind).
Except for Bert Blylevin, who has 339 career Win Shares but is still on the outside. More Win Shares than Nolan Ryan, Fergie Jenkins, Don Sutton, Bob Gibson, Ted Lyons, Jim Palmer, Early Wynn, Carl Hubbell, Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, Whitey Ford, Bob Lemon, Sandy Koufax and many other HOF pitchers who had shorter careers but had at least one dominating season.

I realize Bert lacks any truly GREAT season -- no Cy Young Awards and no 30 Win Share seasons.

[Brad Harris]

I meant that James was saying he looked at 300 ws as qualifying a player as deserving of the Hall, not necessarily that all 300+ ws players were in the Hall of Fame.

Blyleven is amazingly underrated and certainly deserves a spot in the Hall.

[Appling]

Of the top 110 players (career Win Shares 334 or higher) I find only 14 eligible players who have so far been passed over by the Hall: Tony Mullane 399 (1881-94); Bill Dahlen 394 (1891-1911); Darrell Evans 363 (1969-89); Rusty Staub 358 (1963-85); Sherry Magee 354 (1904-19); Lou Whitaker 351 (1977-95); Dwight Evans 347 (1972-91); Ryne Sandberg 346 (1981-97); George Van Haltren 344 (1887-1903); Dick Allen 342; Bert Blyleven 339; Jimmy Sheckard 339; Bob Caruthers 337; and JIm McCormick 334.

To these we can add active players and others who have not yet appeared on the HOF ballot: Pete Rose 547, Rickey Henderson 530, Cal Ripken Jr. 427, Paul Molitor 414, Tony Gwynn 398, Wade Boggs 394, Tim Raines 390, Roger Clemens 352, Roberto Alomar 345, Craig Biggio 342, Mark McGwire 342, and Rafael Palmeiro 334.

Most "borderline" players in the HOF have fewer than 300 career Win Shares.

[J W]

Lou Whitaker 351
Ryne Sandberg 346
Roberto Alomar 345
Craig Biggio 342

Just somethin' I noticed...

[Appling]

All four are possible but none is a "lock" for the Hall of Fame.

[J W]

...I was just noticing, Appling, that they are all second baseman with remarkably similar career win shares.

But, since you mention it, here's how they stack up against the others:

Eddie Collins - 574
Joe Morgan - 512
Rogers Hornsby - 502
Nap Lajoie - 496

These are the only second baseman in history with over 400 win shares.

Rod Carew - 384
Charlie Gehringer - 383
Frankie Frisch - 366
Lou Whitaker - 351
Ryne Sandberg - 346
Roberto Alomar - 345
Craig Biggio - 342
Bobby Grich - 329
Willie Randolph - 312
Bid McPhee - 305
Nellie Fox - 304

That's it for 300. And the other HOFers:

Billie Herman - 298
Bobby Doerr - 281
Johnny Evers - 268
Red Schoendienst - 262
*Jackie Robinson - 257
Tony Lazzeri - 252
Bill Mazeroski - 219

[Brad Harris]

Originally posted by Appling
All four are possible but none is a "lock" for the Hall of Fame.

If you don't think Sandberg or Alomar are "locks," then you must be talking about a different Hall of Fame than the one in Cooperstown.

[razors]

Originally posted by J W:
"That's it for 300. And the other HOFers:

Billie Herman - 298
Bobby Doerr - 281
Johnny Evers - 268
Red Schoendienst - 262
*Jackie Robinson - 257
Tony Lazzeri - 252
Bill Mazeroski - 219"




what's does the * indicate in front of JR's name?





razors

[J W]

* means Jackie, a slam-dunk HOFer, had a short career due to special circumstances and therefore has a low Career Win Shares.

[Cougar]

Where does Jeff Kent fit in?

Originally posted by J W
...I was just noticing, Appling, that they are all second baseman with remarkably similar career win shares.

But, since you mention it, here's how they stack up against the others:

Eddie Collins - 574
Joe Morgan - 512
Rogers Hornsby - 502
Nap Lajoie - 496

These are the only second baseman in history with over 400 win shares.

Rod Carew - 384
Charlie Gehringer - 383
Frankie Frisch - 366
Lou Whitaker - 351
Ryne Sandberg - 346
Roberto Alomar - 345
Craig Biggio - 342
Bobby Grich - 329
Willie Randolph - 312
Bid McPhee - 305
Nellie Fox - 304

That's it for 300. And the other HOFers:

Billie Herman - 298
Bobby Doerr - 281
Johnny Evers - 268
Red Schoendienst - 262
*Jackie Robinson - 257
Tony Lazzeri - 252
Bill Mazeroski - 219

[Appling]

Originally posted by Cougar
Where does Jeff Kent fit in?

Bill James' book shows Jeff Kent with 197 career win shares thru the 2001 season. For the seasons 2000-2001 only, Kent has 64 win shares; just four players are ahead of Kent for these two seasons: Barry Bonds 86; Jason Giambi 76; Alex Rodriguez 74; and Sammy Sosa 72.

I need to look elsewhere for WS data on the 2002 season.

[NOMAR22]

Bill James has outlined a number of "qualifications" for potential members of the Hall of Fame -- His Black Ink Test, Grey Ink Test and the like. But perhaps the most simple and accurate test is the player's Total Win Shares for his career.

In his book "Win Shares" Bill James lists 44 players with career "Total Win Shares" of 400 or more. 39 of this group are already in the Hall of Fame -- and four of the other five are stars who who should be elected on their first HOF ballot:
Barry Bonds 572 (thru 2002)
Rickey Henderson 530
Cal Ripken, Jr. 427
Paul Molitor 414
Of course, the fifth player over 400 is Pete Rose (547 WS)

IMO there should be no question on the HOF qualifications of anyone with 400+ Win Shares. In fact, most eligible players with 350 WS or more are already in the Hall of Fame.

The most contraversial members seem to be players with less than 300 career Win Shares (Luis Apparico 293? Kiki Cuyler 292? George Sisler 292? Kirby Puckett 281? Bill Terry 278? Ed Walsh 265? Lloyd Waner 245?) Players with fewer than 300 Win Shares may still belong because of a few great seasons, but anyone over 400 should be almost automatic.

If only 44 players have so far achieved the 400 WS standard, then a few about to be voted on should be easy choices: Bonds, Henderson, Ripken and Molitor are over 400 (as listed above) --plus Tony Gwynn 398 and Wade Boggs 394. Any argument on these six candidates?


lol, it's amazing how alot of people on this forum worship Bill James and his stats "win shares" black inc" etc as the most important stats in Baseball.

[NOMAR22]

Of the top 110 players (career Win Shares 334 or higher) I find only 14 eligible players who have so far been passed over by the Hall: Tony Mullane 399 (1881-94); Bill Dahlen 394 (1891-1911); Darrell Evans 363 (1969-89); Rusty Staub 358 (1963-85); Sherry Magee 354 (1904-19); Lou Whitaker 351 (1977-95); Dwight Evans 347 (1972-91); Ryne Sandberg 346 (1981-97); George Van Haltren 344 (1887-1903); Dick Allen 342; Bert Blyleven 339; Jimmy Sheckard 339; Bob Caruthers 337; and JIm McCormick 334.


Most "borderline" players in the HOF have fewer than 300 career Win Shares.


Thanks ,you proved my point that career win shares are totally worthless. Do you actually believe that Darrell Evans(363 win shares) was better than Dwight Evans(347 win shares) or Dick Allen(342 win shares) ?

Please people wake up !

[NOMAR22]

Of the top 110 players (career Win Shares 334 or higher) I find only 14 eligible players who have so far been passed over by the Hall: Tony Mullane 399 (1881-94); Bill Dahlen 394 (1891-1911); Darrell Evans 363 (1969-89); Rusty Staub 358 (1963-85); Sherry Magee 354 (1904-19); Lou Whitaker 351 (1977-95); Dwight Evans 347 (1972-91); Ryne Sandberg 346 (1981-97); George Van Haltren 344 (1887-1903); Dick Allen 342; Bert Blyleven 339; Jimmy Sheckard 339; Bob Caruthers 337; and JIm McCormick 334.

To these we can add active players and others who have not yet appeared on the HOF ballot: Pete Rose 547, Rickey Henderson 530, Cal Ripken Jr. 427, Paul Molitor 414, Tony Gwynn 398, Wade Boggs 394, Tim Raines 390, Roger Clemens 352, Roberto Alomar 345, Craig Biggio 342, Mark McGwire 342, and Rafael Palmeiro 334.

Most "borderline" players in the HOF have fewer than 300 career Win Shares.

big Mac Mc Gwire has the same win shares 342 as Craig Biggio. Who in their right mind really believes that Craig biggio was as good as Mark Mc Gwire?

Damn some people on this boards just don't really know how to judge talent or how good a player really was. "Win Shares" pleazzeeee .As i said before a complete totally worthless stat. This post above validates my arguement 500%.

[538280]

Thanks ,you proved my point that career win shares are totally worthless. Do you actually believe that Darrell Evans(363 win shares) was better than Dwight Evans(347 win shares) or Dick Allen(342 win shares) ?

Please people wake up !

Nomar, first of all Darrell Evans was much better than Dwight Evans. He really was just as good a hitter, had more fielding value because his position was tougher, had a better peak, and lasted longer.

I'll agree he's nowhere near as good as Dick Allen, but the career Win Share total isn't meant to be used as the be all end all in Win Share ratings. Bill James, in his NHBBA, introduces a rating system that takes into account the player's peak, his Win Shares per season, and his career total. Based on that, Allen comes out where he should, far ahead of Darrell Evans.

[Brad Harris]

Already took one moron to the woodshed in the past twenty-four hours, so Nomar22 gets a free pass this time.

Since this thread was started, thought I'd update some of the numbers. Below are the top 25 career totals for players active thru 2005:

666 Barry Bonds
423 Roger Clemens
414 Craig Biggio
401 Gary Sheffield
395 Rafael Palmeiro
388 Jeff Bagwell
369 Greg Maddux
362 Frank Thomas
361 Ken Griffey Jr.
318 Alex Rodriguez
313 Sammy Sosa
311 Larry Walker
310 Manny Ramirez
310 Mike Piazza
303 Bernie Williams
302 Randy Johnson
301 John Olerud
299 Jeff Kent
290 Tom Glavine
289 Luis Gonzalez
287 Steve Finley
282 Chipper Jones
282 Jim Thome
275 Julio Franco
274 Ivan Rodriguez

[Brooklyn]

Of the top 110 players (career Win Shares 334 or higher) I find only 14 eligible players who have so far been passed over by the Hall: Tony Mullane 399 (1881-94); Bill Dahlen 394 (1891-1911); Darrell Evans 363 (1969-89); Rusty Staub 358 (1963-85); Sherry Magee 354 (1904-19); Lou Whitaker 351 (1977-95); Dwight Evans 347 (1972-91); Ryne Sandberg 346 (1981-97); George Van Haltren 344 (1887-1903); Dick Allen 342; Bert Blyleven 339; Jimmy Sheckard 339; Bob Caruthers 337; and JIm McCormick 334.



Rusty Staub? He is no where near Hall worthy. This list is rewarding quantity over quality.

[KCGHOST]

To these we can add active players and others who have not yet appeared on the HOF ballot...... Wade Boggs 394.....


Wade will sure be surprised when he hears he isn't in the HoF yet.

[KCGHOST]

Already took one moron to the woodshed in the past twenty-four hours, so Nomar22 gets a free pass this time.


There's no help for the ignorant, anyway.

[Brooklyn]

Wade will sure be surprised when he hears he isn't in the HoF yet.

Look at the date of that post - this is an old thread

[abacab]

666 Barry Bonds

Just another reason why Bonds should retire right now!

[Brad Harris]

This list is rewarding quantity over quality.

Well,...duh! Any career statistic is going to do that!

[Brooklyn]

Well,...duh! Any career statistic is going to do that!

My point is with Staub (and using career win shares alone as a measuring stick). Any list that puts him in the HOF conversation is flawed.

[Brad Harris]

Staub had a long and productive career. Using your logic, lists of career hits, RBI, home runs, etc. are flawed statistics because Staub shouldn't be in the argument. I think a more well-rounded approach is necessary; win shares is a nice summary statistic, but it's not the sole measure of a player's value.

[Yankee Legend]

ok you guys are gonna laugh at me but i still dont know what a freakin win share is.

[Brad Harris]

Short summary is that a win share represents 1/3rd of a win. It's an "advanced" statistic that takes a players hitting, baserunner, fielding and pitching value, places in within the context of his park, league and era, and adjusts it to an integer format where a 10 win share season is a "regular", a 20 win share season is an "all-star" and a 30 win shares season is a "MVP" type year. So consider that a 300-win share career would be one of 10 MVP-caliber seasons or 20 seasons as a solid starting player. Pitchers and catchers tend to earn slightly fewer win shares, due to the system, so we cut them a little slack (about 50 win shares) for career value.

The idea being that a 30-win share season is worth 10 additional wins to that player's team.

It's probably the most commonly used "comprehensive" statistic for player value these days. Began with the publication of Bill James' New Historical Baseball Abstract in which he uses the system to rank players and STATS Inc.'s publication of Win Shares, in which James details how the system works, how to arrive at the values, and lists the value of practically every player in every season in history.

It's simply a quick and painless system that's better than most for comparing ballplayers. The Hardball Times tracks win shares on their website periodically throughout the season.

[Yankee Legend]

Short summary is that a win share represents 1/3rd of a win. It's an "advanced" statistic that takes a players hitting, baserunner, fielding and pitching value, places in within the context of his park, league and era, and adjusts it to an integer format where a 10 win share season is a "regular", a 20 win share season is an "all-star" and a 30 win shares season is a "MVP" type year. So consider that a 300-win share career would be one of 10 MVP-caliber seasons or 20 seasons as a solid starting player. Pitchers and catchers tend to earn slightly fewer win shares, due to the system, so we cut them a little slack (about 50 win shares) for career value.

The idea being that a 30-win share season is worth 10 additional wins to that player's team.

It's probably the most commonly used "comprehensive" statistic for player value these days. Began with the publication of Bill James' New Historical Baseball Abstract in which he uses the system to rank players and STATS Inc.'s publication of Win Shares, in which James details how the system works, how to arrive at the values, and lists the value of practically every player in every season in history.

It's simply a quick and painless system that's better than most for comparing ballplayers. The Hardball Times tracks win shares on their website periodically throughout the season.

can you give me a link on how i can calculate win shares? thx.

[Brad Harris]

Here's the "short form" method, as presented on pages 14-15 of Win Shares:


Figure the Runs Created for all of the players on a team.
Figure the Outs Made by each hitter.
Divide the Outs by 12, and subtract that from the Runs Created.
Divide by three. The result of each hitter's batting Win Shares (but not less than zero).
For pitchers as hitters, do the same except don't subtract the outs.
For pitchers as pitchers, multiply the league ERA by 1.50 and subtract 1.00.
Figure how many earned runs the pitcher would have allowed had that been his ERA.
Subtract his actual earned runs allowed.
Add his Saves.
Divide by three. The result is his pitching Win Shares (again, not less than zero).
For fielders, give the player one Win Share for every 24 games at catcher, one for every 76 games at first base, one for every 28 games at second base, one for every 38 games at third base, one for 25 games at shortstop, and one for every 48 games in the outfield.
Figure the team total, and then adjust all totals upward or downward so that the team total matches three times the team's wins.
Round them off into integers.


It's a quick and dirty estimate, but fairly close to the long method (which you'll have to get hold of the book for).

To my knowledge, the following websites have seasonal win shares:
Baseball Truth - 2002
Baseball Graphs - 2003
The Hardball Times - 2004, 2005

The Win Shares book (by STATS Inc.) has win shares up through 2001 and the last version of Total Baseball had win shares through the 2003 season, I believe.

You can also find win shares for all active players in any of the annual Bill James Handbooks.

[538280]

ok you guys are gonna laugh at me but i still dont know what a freakin win share is.

He gave you the short form method, here's a pretty good explanation of the long form method:

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/index.php/site/details/#sharecalc

If you want to get any deeper than that, you're going to have to buy the Win Shares book, which gives a complete and in depth explanation of the system. Here's a link to buy the book, if you're interested (you really should buy it from STATS Inc., they sell it for $19.99 while most other places for $30 or $40):

http://www.stats.com/store/store.asp?page=wins