Matt Holliday

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

It's way too early to start talking about Holliday's HOF candidacy, but I thought I'd start up a discussion anyhow. Much like Ryan Howard, he has the disadvantage of getting somewhat of a late start. The Coors Field bias may also work against him, though probably not as much as it will work against Larry Walker and Todd Helton, who both peaked in the late 90s and very early 2000s. I don't see Holliday getting there as a power hitter - a late start combined with what seems to be a max of 30-something homers per season won't get him to 500. Do you think he has a chance to make it as a perennial batting title contender? Batting average seems to be his biggest strength. He has also steadily improved every season, but how long can he keep that up? What are your thoughts on what he would need to do to be a HOFer and whether or not he'll do it?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Black Ink: Batting - 13 (176) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 55 (453) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 32.0 (226) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 67.5 (271) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Holliday's HOF monitor, even for Coors Field, is impressive. In just 4.5 years in the majors, he's done enough to bring him up to the bottom of the gray area for the HOF. I'll take away 7.5 points for Coors and bump him down to 60 points for argument, but that's still pretty impressive.

Guys like Holliday will not need huge counting stats to make the HOF. What Holliday needs is consistency from year to year. If he does what he's done to date for 12 years without a really off year or a major injury, he'll make the HOF. If he has a major injury, or leaves Colorado and his stats drop off to where he doesn't hit .300, that will be a big blow, and he will then need 3,000 hits, or some major awards won.

Holliday, BTW, should have won the NL MVP last year; giving it to Rollins was a bit much, even given that Rollins had a great year.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I'm sorry but Holliday is a Coors Filed creation. His career home/road splits are here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=hollima01&year=00).

In 327 career home games he has 78 HRs. In 304 road games he has 38 HRs.

He was drafted out of high school in 1998 and it took him six years to reach the majors. I checked his minor league performances and there's nothing there that suggests a great hitter. His minor league stats are here (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=6739).

[jjpm74]

What both Helton and Holliday really need is for people to stop apologizing for their ability just because they happen to play in Coors field. In Holliday's case, it's a moot point as they've been keeping the baseballs in the humidor to level the play. For Helton, his road stats are lower than his home stats, but even his road stats are impressive. It's too hard to tellfor Holliday, but assuming 6 more seaons like his first 4, I can't see anyone presenting a case against him. For Helton, he's 35. Continue his current pace with a normal decline for about 6 years and he's also there.

[Brad Harris]

Any time one of these threads begins with "It's way too early to start talking about X's HOF candidacy, but...." it's like someone beginning a conversation with "Here, smell this..."

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Do any of you liken Holliday to Stan Musial as a hitter? It's obviously quite unlikely that he'll be as good as Musial was, but it seems to me that they have the same set of skills. Maybe he's a poor man's Musial...

[Cougar]

Any time one of these threads begins with "It's way too early to start talking about X's HOF candidacy, but...." it's like someone beginning a conversation with "Here, smell this..."

Very, very funny; I was drinking a soda and it came out my nose reading this.

Classic, you've been hysterically feisty of late. (I mean this as a compliment.)

[Tensolator]

We'll see about Holliday. Personally though, I think Helton belongs. He's a 300+ homerun hitter, is a .320+ lifetime hitter and could end up approaching 3000 hits. The poster above, I think was correct about not punishing players for playing at Coors. "Coors Field creations" or not they play the game, and play well. Six years in the minors should mean nothing either. I think Holliday will play in any town he calls home. He can play another 12-13 years barring injury. We can talk more about it then.

[Tensolator]

Any time one of these threads begins with "It's way too early to start talking about X's HOF candidacy, but...." it's like someone beginning a conversation with "Here, smell this..."


Is that like, "Smell my finger"?

[Brad Harris]

Is that like, "Smell my finger"?
Depends on which player is being thrown out for discussion. ;)

I still don't see how Helton is a better candidate than Larry Walker, to say nothing of Holliday.

[Cowtipper]

Seeing as how it's Christmas Eve, I thought I'd bring this thread back to life.

Holliday has only been active for five years, which is way too early to tell whether or not he is a Hall of Famer. However, his past three OPS+ of 140, 150, 137 are promising. If he keeps this up, then he is a Hall of Famer, in my opinion.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Holliday's OWP lifetime is .698. That's in the middle range for a corner OF.

It's really hard to project a Coors Field career for the HOF. He's going to have a short career, and he's in his mid-prime right now, so it's hard to see him racking up monster counting stats, even in Coors Field (and that's assuming he stays in Colorado). There is a Coors Field prejudice, which is justified to a point, but it's gone to the point where some folks automatically tune out the HOF case of a player just because they played in Colorado. An ADJUSTMENT for playing in Colorado needs to be made, but not a complete discounting of a Rockies player's accomplishments.

Holliday's next 5 years will tell it all. If he posts seasons in the .720 OWP range, he'll solidify his standing. If he drops to the mid-.600s in OWP, it will show in his stats to the point where he will be viewed as a Coors Field Wonder and he won't get much HOF love.

[Mike90]

Among Holliday's ten most similar players through 28 years old, only Hafey has made the Hall, and he's probably one of the worst selections of all time. Wally Berger and Lance Berkman are Holliday's two closest comparables, and they're both better hitters than him.

It's already been mentioned that it's soon to tell, but I doubt Holliday is going to have a HOF career; the odds are really stacked against anyone who was 24 as a rookie.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Among Holliday's ten most similar players through 28 years old, only Hafey has made the Hall, and he's probably one of the worst selections of all time. Wally Berger and Lance Berkman are Holliday's two closest comparables, and they're both better hitters than him.

It's already been mentioned that it's soon to tell, but I doubt Holliday is going to have a HOF career; the odds are really stacked against anyone who was 24 as a rookie.

Berger is a most underrated pick, and better than more than one outfielder in the HOF. I go back and forth on Berger, and I would not be bent out of shape if he were someday inducted.

Berkman is on a HOF pace. He's EXTREMELY underrated; he has an OWP of .727 for his career (seven seasons over .700 OWP). If he keeps up what he's doing for a reasonable stretch of time given his age, he OUGHT TO BE a HOFer.

[mwiggins]

He's 28 and has yet to really have a great offensive season. Among the younger position players in the NL, I'd put his chances well behind guys like Utley and Ramirez and Wright, even Ryan Howard. Not to mention Pujols, of course. I really don't see how he's even on the radar as a possible HoF'er.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Now that Holliday has left Coors Field we shall see what kind of hitter he really is.

[Cougar]

He's 28 and has yet to really have a great offensive season. Among the younger position players in the NL, I'd put his chances well behind guys like Utley and Ramirez and Wright, even Ryan Howard. Not to mention Pujols, of course. I really don't see how he's even on the radar as a possible HoF'er.

2007 wasn't great?

Holliday led the NL in batting average, hits, doubles, RBI, total bases, extra base hits, and runs created. He was 4th in HR with 36, 3rd in runs with 120, and 3rd in OPS with 1.012; his OPS+, which adjusts for Coors, was 150, meaning Holliday was 50% better than the average NL hitter. He came in 2nd in the MVP vote in one of the closest elections in a generation (one lone 1st place vote switching from Rollins to Holliday would have delivered Holliday the prize), and he did win the NLCS MVP, appropriately, as the best player on a pennant winner. In addition to shining in the NL playoffs, he saved the season with clutch performance in the play-in 163rd game versus San Diego. There was talk of Holliday earning a Gold Glove as a left fielder...he didn't do it, but the last left fielder to earn a GG was one Barry Bonds; Holliday may be the best fielding left fielder in the ML. He stole double digit bases, as he has every full year he's been in the major leagues.

If that's not a great year, than you've got an awfully high bar.

Fact is, while 2007 is surely his best season, 2006 and 2008 are awfully good too -- clear All-Star caliber play.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Now that Holliday has left Coors Field we shall see what kind of hitter he really is.

His stats will not be as impressive, but he'll be at .700-.750 OWP. How that will shake out in Oakland remains to be seen, but he'll be a top star still.

[Cowtipper]

He wasn't a Rockie, and yet he still did well this year, with a .313 batting average, 24 home runs and 109 RBI. Perhaps he wasn't a product of Coors Field after all.

[Milt on Tilt]

I have him as the best LF in the last 5 years. He needs more than that to be HOF material though.

[Paul Wendt]

2007 wasn't great?
...
There was talk of Holliday earning a Gold Glove as a left fielder...he didn't do it, but the last left fielder to earn a GG was one Barry Bonds; Holliday may be the best fielding left fielder in the ML.
I don't have an informed judgment of the fact of the matter.

It does make 2009 game 2 ironic, akin to "Garry Maddox dropped the pennant" (Phillies regular CF 1975-85, gold glove 1976-82) and to Lou Brock out at home when he didn't slide (Cardinals regular LF, many seasons and career steals leader).

[Fielding Marshall]

I'd like to see more data, but so far, so good.