Are strikeouts overrated?

[StillFlash]

Looking at baseball-reference.com, over the past 365 days, Ryan Howard has started 160 games, hitting .249, with 50 HRs, 111 runs scored, and 149 RBI - while striking out 227 times!

[Tony19]

I hope so, with the amount of times I strike out in my league...

[NYMets523]

For pitchers it depends on the situation.

For hitters it does as well. When you put the ball in play, there's always the chance an error will be made and you'll be on base.

[SABR Matt]

For pitchers, strikeouts remain the most important thing they can do to proactively impact a game in a positive way. For hitters, strikeouts are no worse than other outs (or...not much worse) but they remain a sign that you have a flawed approach. They don't impact value but they can be a predictive tool.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

For pitchers it depends on the situation.

For hitters it does as well. When you put the ball in play, there's always the chance an error will be made and you'll be on base.

Agree, it all depends on the game situation at that time.

[Stat One Author]

Looking at baseball-reference.com, over the past 365 days, Ryan Howard has started 160 games, hitting .249, with 50 HRs, 111 runs scored, and 149 RBI - while striking out 227 times!

Obviously, a strikeout at times is just another out. At other times, however, it can be an out that fails to move a runner or shifts momentum to the opposition. I would take 149 RBI with 227 K for a complete season. It's a tradeoff that, ultimately, benefits your team.

[Tango Tiger]

As of today, Howard over the last 365 days, has hit 51 HR with this slash line:
.252/.361/.545

If that was accompanied with 40 K or 400 K, I don't care.

In the same time period, Juan Pierre has 30 K.

[KCGHOST]

Overall productivity is what matters though hitters who strike out a lot drive fans crazy. I am not real thrilled with the idea that a strikeout is just another out. Sure if you are going to make an out a strikeout is just another out but we do tend to overlook the fact that if a player puts the ball in play good things are going to happen 30% of the time. That's substantially higher than sub 1% for a K. Granted that is an over simplification but the general idea seems reasonable.

[Tango Tiger]

KC: you are right. However, after all is said and done, if you can manager a .360/.520 OBP/SLG with 220 K, you are doing something very right.

To think that we as fans know a hitter better than he knows himself in terms of optimizing his approach, if his approach generates a .360/.520 line shows how delusional those fans are.

Are we going to tell Vlad he swings at too many pitches? Of course not. Dude is one of the best hitters of our generation, and it's unreasonable to think that a change in his approach would be for the better rather than for the worse. i.e., almost nowhere to go, but down... almost.

Now, if he was hitting like Willie Bloomquist and getting 220K, then you have a right to be upset.

[SABR Matt]

Tom...Bloomquist is having a career year (sad I know)...so you may want to pick another player. :)

Yeah..Howard could hit for a higher average if he fanned less...but chances are, he'd have to dial his ambition WAY down, which would cause more singles and WAAAAYYY fewer walks and HR.

[Brad Harris]

As of today, Howard over the last 365 days, has hit 51 HR with this slash line:
.252/.361/.545

If that was accompanied with 40 K or 400 K, I don't care.

In the same time period, Juan Pierre has 30 K.

And Juan's slash line during that same period? :rofl:

[Tango Tiger]

Tom...Bloomquist is having a career year (sad I know)...so you may want to pick another player. :)

Yeah..Howard could hit for a higher average if he fanned less...but chances are, he'd have to dial his ambition WAY down, which would cause more singles and WAAAAYYY fewer walks and HR.

Right, that's the whole point. Who the heck are we to tell anyone that we know how they can improve, if they are already one of the best hitters around?

As for WFB, he's my go-to guy. He's the perfect, and I mean, perfect player if you want to talk about replacement-level. Dude plays every position, and he's bad at the tough fielding positions, and good at the easy fielding positions. The perfect example when I want to explain positional fielding adjustments, and the perfect example of the 750th best player in baseball.

Let me see what he's doing this year...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1066&position=OF

You almost had me there... .361 OBP... with a .248 SLG? That has got to be the funniest line I've ever seen! Zero extrabase hits with 16 walks (plus one intentional !! who's the brainiac who gave him one of those?)

In any case, this must be his last year in MLB. I'd fire whoever puts their name on the same contract as his.

[SABR Matt]

.246 SLG? Wow...I hadn't even noticed that.

That's pretty hilarious actually.

I've hated WFB for a very long time as you know, Tom...the high OBP had me fooled though as to this being a career year.

He has been taking a LOT of pitches this year...grinding like crazy trying to prove he can be a "tough out"

[skyking162]

if a player puts the ball in play good things are going to happen 30% of the time.

This just isn't fair, though. You're right that you need to compare a strikeout with a ground out, not a random ball in play. Another common response to a strikeout is "jeez, why did he have to swing so hard, just swing easy." Well, all those guys who swing so hard hit a ton of homeruns. People don't complain about them. The two come together. Personally, I find weak groundouts to second extremely frustrating.

[SABR Matt]

Don't watch Mariner games then SK.

The plethora of weak groundouts to infielders is nauseating.

[brett]

For pitchers, strikeouts remain the most important thing they can do to proactively impact a game in a positive way. For hitters, strikeouts are no worse than other outs (or...not much worse) but they remain a sign that you have a flawed approach. They don't impact value but they can be a predictive tool.


Is it possible, in today's game for a below average strikeout pitcher to be a great pitcher?

I know that BABIP is highly consistent from pitcher to pitcher, but what about SlgBAP for example.

What about walks? 9 Ks and 4 BB's versus 5 Ks and 2 BB's. My guess is that those are about equal-2 more walks but 4 fewer balls in play.

Also, isn't it true that BABIP as well as walks and home runs allowed become less consistent between pitchers when there are runners on base?

[mikefast]

Is it possible, in today's game for a below average strikeout pitcher to be a great pitcher?

Tom Glavine

[StillFlash]

Craig Wilson was extremely consistent and had a career .262 .353 .474 line. After the broken hand in 2005, he came back at the same rates as before in 2006. So the Pirates dumped him in favor of Sean Casey because "strikeouts are such a rally killer" Huh? What about a 463 off the bat of Casey? Wilson was always the 2nd or 3rd best bat on the team, and only got one year of full playing time (65 xbh) because he'd strikeout 170 times. BFD!!

[STLCards2]

Is it possible, in today's game for a below average strikeout pitcher to be a great pitcher?

?

Assuming "today's game" means modern era - not literaly last 5 years.

Of course it is - just very unlikely. Glavine mentioned above is the perfect example.

Bill James (not like everything he sais is true) claimed that a pitcher with a K rate below 4.5 could succeed if they did everything else well. This is guys like Palmer, Glavine, Moyer to a tee.

Glavine has a great HR/9 rate, a below average BB/9 rate, a BABIP 1.4 standard deviations better than his teamates, a high double play rate ( even higher than his gb/fb and runners and WHIP would indicate), a great xbh rate, some of the best HBP and WP rates in history, a very good record of controling the running game (despite Lopez and Piazza being longtime mates), and a slick glove. Glavine also has a strand rate 4% better than league average-led by his crazy SLG% drop with RISP.

Palmer, Kaat, Moyer, Rogers, Spahn to a lesser degree, and Glavine did everything else well.

The more strikeouts a guy throws, the fewer "other" things he has to be good at to succeed. That is different than saying a guy has to have lots of strikeouts to succeed on their own merit. I would agree that there becomes a point that so many guys are making contact against you, that it doesn't matter what else you do. Glavine's career 5.4 K/9 is well above that point.

[SABR Matt]

On the other hand, Chien-Ming Wang's K rate is so low that I continue to think he's going to crash and burn like the Hindenburg at any moment.

[STLCards2]

On the other hand, Chien-Ming Wang's K rate is so low that I continue to think he's going to crash and burn like the Hindenburg at any moment.

I know- but those BB rates, HR rate, and double play rates are incredible every year. If he continues to excell in those areas each year while keeping his BABIP low, he will continue to be successful. His biggst issue this year seams to be his BB rate is higher.

[SABR Matt]

Thing is...it's almost impossible to continue to be successful at both low walk rate AND low BABIP at the same time if you are not a K pitcher because to avoid walking people, you have to get them to swing which means you can't nibble...but to avoid giving up in play hits, you have to stay out of the zone as much as possible...there's a balance that has to be struck...he's been holding that perfect balance but as you age, you lose the fine finger-tip perfect control.

[NYMets523]

On the other hand, Chien-Ming Wang's K rate is so low that I continue to think he's going to crash and burn like the Hindenburg at any moment.

Him adding a slider help. He's gotten his K/9 over 4.5 which Bill James believe is the line that determines whether a pitcher is too dependent on his defense. He'll have to maintain it next year though. Otherwise he will crash and burn.

[SABR Matt]

Yes...if he can keep up the 4.5 K/9, he might stave off death for a few years.

[Tango Tiger]

Is it possible, in today's game for a below average strikeout pitcher to be a great pitcher?

I know that BABIP is highly consistent from pitcher to pitcher, but what about SlgBAP for example.

What about walks? 9 Ks and 4 BB's versus 5 Ks and 2 BB's. My guess is that those are about equal-2 more walks but 4 fewer balls in play.

Also, isn't it true that BABIP as well as walks and home runs allowed become less consistent between pitchers when there are runners on base?

Check the archives. I've proven already that K minus BB divided by PA works. It's the differential, not the ratio. It's all laid out in the archives.

[SABR Matt]

Ooh...interesting Tom...I hadn't read that.

Nice work on the analysis...so what you're saying is that have 8 K and 4 BB lines is better than having 6 K and 3 walk lines. Makes sense...

And that trumps the Shandlerites who are all about K/BB

[brett]

Are there pitchers who are particularly good at striking out guys in situations where it is more important?

[brett]

Check the archives. I've proven already that K minus BB divided by PA works. It's the differential, not the ratio. It's all laid out in the archives.


Is that a correlation, or is it with all other variables removed? I mean, a guy with 9 K and 4 BB versus a guy with 6 K and 2 BB, it looks like based on K and BB ONLY that the second guy is saving some runs-assuming the same BABIP, SlgBIP, etc. 3 balls in play can't be worth 2 walks. I suspect it is a correlation and that the first guy is tending to have a better BABIP etc. against him?

[brett]

How does the strikeout rate of a pitcher vary when he wins and when he loses (per inning)? Is it the "cause" of poor outings for strikeout guys? I remember Roger Clemens going from 15 Ks to 2 Ks in a week, but being equally effective.

[SABR Matt]

I have a theory that as pitchers age, they become increasingly inconsistent even if their average results aren't changing right away. I'd be willing to bet that extends to K rates becoming erratic from game to game.

That doesn't really answer your question...just a side thought.

I think Tom's study was a PREDICTIVE correlation. i.e. the higher tha (K-BB)/PA, the more the likely the pitcher would do well in future seasons. Correct me if I'm wrong, Tom.

[Tango Tiger]

Matt, here's the study (start at post 11):
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=1083108#post1083108

I also put a few more words on my site:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/k_bb_ratio_or_k_bb_differential/

I look forward to more research by others for further confirmation. But, I think it stands fairly well on its own, especially if you are already a proponent of FIP.

[SABR Matt]

I prefer DNRA to FIP, but FIP to any of the other pitching metrics.

What does that make me? :)

OK, your study is simpler than I was expecting but interesting nonetheless. Wht it's saying those is correlative. (K-BB)/BF predicts ERA better than K/BB does. We need to run those numbers over a much larger sample and actually produce a correlative comparison...but you are on the right track.

[Tango Tiger]

On my blog I said:


By the way, I used a minimum 1000 TBF since 1993. That’s 728 pitchers in all.

I don't know how much more data you'd like!

(And if you do, you are likely aware that the BABIP pre-93 is different than post-93. So, you'd have to make some adjustment. And, of course, the K rates have changed quite a bit too.)

[abolishthedh]

Thing is...it's almost impossible to continue to be successful at both low walk rate AND low BABIP at the same time if you are not a K pitcher because to avoid walking people, you have to get them to swing which means you can't nibble...but to avoid giving up in play hits, you have to stay out of the zone as much as possible...there's a balance that has to be struck...he's been holding that perfect balance but as you age, you lose the fine finger-tip perfect control.

True, but this can be done by a starting pitcher over 2 full years or more! Randy Jones of the Padres in 1975-1976 was the NL's best overall starter and possibly the best starter in the majors for those 2 years. Over those two years, he was 42-26 and his ERAs were 2.24 and 2.76 in '75 and '76. In a total of 600.3 IP, he gave up 516 Hits, walked 106 and struck out only 196!

That's 196 Ks for 2 years! I believe he slipped in 1977, but he continued to pitch well in bad luck for 1978-1979. In other words, he has shown that Wang has not been that much of an aberration. Strikeouts are overrated for pitchers.

[SABR Matt]

Those Padres teams in 75 and 76 were above average defensively, which helps. But yes...a pitcher can run a good line for a couple of years without strikeouts...that doesn't mean strikeouts are "overrated"...they're still the most important thing you can do to ensure long term success. What Wang has done isn't that much of an aberration YET...but if he doesn't implode in the immediate near future, it will BECOME an aberration. Which is why I expect him to implode in the immediate near future unless his K rate has indeed climbed permanently.

[StillFlash]

...that doesn't mean strikeouts are "overrated"...they're still the most important thing you can do to ensure long term success.

Although I have enjoyed all the pitching talk in this thread, I did originally intend it as "are BATTERS strikeouts overrated?"

Everything said about pitchers is very relevant, but my overrated referred to batters.

[SABR Matt]

Yes well...we answered your question after two posts and then the topic went elsewhere to more interesting areas...LOL

[Darren]

Looking at baseball-reference.com, over the past 365 days, Ryan Howard has started 160 games, hitting .249, with 50 HRs, 111 runs scored, and 149 RBI - while striking out 227 times!


I don't think strikeouts are overrated at all. I think they show how some players are not efficient. For example, if Ryan Howard has struck out 227 times in the last year, that means when he's not hitting home runs, he is not producing runs in other ways. He's not moving guys around the bases or sacrificing to get them home.

In 2006, Howard had 182 hits and 84 of them(46.2%) were extra base hits. He had only 6 sacrifice flies and 37 of his 108 walks(34.3%) were intentional.

In 2007, Howard had 142 hits and 73 of them(51.4%) were extra base hits. He had only 7 sacrifice flies and 35 of his 107 walks(32.7) were intentional.

Nowadays, Howard's batting average is down to .236. He has already struck out 126 times and is on pace for 145 hits, 48 home runs(72 total extra base hits), 145 RBI's, 217 strikeouts, 83 walks(16 intentional). and 5 sacrifice flies.

[SABR Matt]

If you hit a HUGE number of HRs though...who cares if you dno't lead the leageu in Sac Flies? Seriously dude...BIG PICTURE here.

[Darren]

If you hit a HUGE number of HRs though...who cares if you dno't lead the leageu in Sac Flies? Seriously dude...BIG PICTURE here.


Reality is if Ryan Howard isn't hitting home runs, he isn't doing much of anything else. He strikes out a ton, is a worse fielder than even Mark McGwire, and a significant amount of his walks are intentional.

[SABR Matt]

Not really...in the last two years, Howard has walked 155 times and 44 of them have been intentional. Even without the IBBs, his OBP is solid despite the lack of singles.

Production is production.

[Darren]

Not really...in the last two years, Howard has walked 155 times and 44 of them have been intentional. Even without the IBBs, his OBP is solid despite the lack of singles.

Production is production.


He's on pace for 83 walks(16 intentional). That's 190 for 2 seasons(51 intentional), an average of 85 walks(25.5 intentional) for 2 seasons. Those numbers are not good at all. Even if his OBP is decent, his batting average is down to the .230s.

[SABR Matt]

Who the heck cares? As long as he gets on base and drives in the runs....both of which he's doing...the batting average means NOTHING.

[Ubiquitous]

Well, to be technical he isn't really getting on base. He is below average in that department and the only thing that is really saving him is the home runs. Which of course mean a lot, if you are going to be less then mediocre in several things it is good to do the one thing that is most important real well. His 2008 season can definitely be a cautionary data point towards his future. A nagging injury or a tweaked muscle here or there and he is a minor league quality player. AT this point he is walking a fine line, but of course that doesn't mean he will fail. Take a look at Pat Burrell.

[SABR Matt]

Sure, Ubi...I know that at the moment he's not getting on base...however, a lot of that appears be bad luck on balls in play...his K rate isn't much different and his HR/Fly is the same...he'll be fine.

[STLCards2]

Reality is if Ryan Howard isn't hitting home runs, he isn't doing much of anything else. He strikes out a ton, is a worse fielder than even Mark McGwire, and a significant amount of his walks are intentional.

Than "even" Mark McGwire? McGwire was never a very good fielder, but he was at least average the first half of his career. You make McGwire sound like David Ortiz over there.

[STLCards2]

He's on pace for 83 walks(16 intentional). That's 190 for 2 seasons(51 intentional), an average of 85 walks(25.5 intentional) for 2 seasons. Those numbers are not good at all. Even if his OBP is decent, his batting average is down to the .230s.

How many walks do you feel it take for a guy to have a "good" walk total. You were bashing McGwire's (8 top 10 finishes) walk totals on another thread. 83 per season will land you in the top 10 most years. Not everybody is Barry Bonds. I am not huge Howrd fan either. Put Howard in a nuetal lineup and nuetral park, and Howard loses 10 homeruns and 40 RBI's a year. Howard is a very flawed player, but his walk total is the least of these flaws.

On McGwire: usualy when a poster spends a lot of their time trashing one specific player, it is usualy because they are trying to increase the reputaion of their "underrated" fave or a comparable guy - like that guy who always dogged Biggio just because he like Alomar so much. Is this the case with you and McGwire? It doesn't seem to be steroid related either.

[wjraymond11]

Looking at baseball-reference.com, over the past 365 days, Ryan Howard has started 160 games, hitting .249, with 50 HRs, 111 runs scored, and 149 RBI - while striking out 227 times!

Homerun hitters tend to strike out a lot because of overswinging.

[Tango Tiger]

If you hit 30 HR, and if you take those out, and look at the rest of the batting line, and if the batter is average, then he is still one of the best hitters in the league.

If you hit 50 HR, and you can hit like a pitcher otherwise, you are a league average hitter.

You can't just say "well, if not for the 50 HR..."