Is Ichiro in Decline?

[willshad]

A quarter through the season and he is hitting .271 with a.321 OPB. At age 34 has he lost a step? Interesting is that he has 16 steals and only 1 CS; a pace which if he continued would be the most steals, and second best percentage, of his career.

[Stumanji]

Statistically speaking, May (.366) and June (.344) are his best months for batting average, whereas April (.293) is by far his worst month.

He's a slow starter. If he's not up in the .300's by the end of May, or at least Mid-June, then we can start the "is he on the decline" talk.

[Old Sweater]

Statistically speaking, May (.366) and June (.344) are his best months for batting average, whereas April (.293) is by far his worst month.

He's a slow starter. If he's not up in the .300's by the end of May, or at least Mid-June, then we can start the "is he on the decline" talk.

That or wait until he is a year or two older. Get past 35 or so and every bump in the road is a spike in your coffin.

[Old Sweater]

A quarter through the season and he is hitting .271 with a.321 OPB. At age 34 has he lost a step? Interesting is that he has 16 steals and only 1 CS; a pace which if he continued would be the most steals, and second best percentage, of his career.

Ichiro stole another base yesterday and is on pace for his best SB total since his rookie year. Since he has the green light to go at any time I wonder if he is stealing bases more to make up for his slow start with the bat?

[Zito75]

That or wait until he is a year or two older. Get past 35 or so and every bump in the road is a spike in your coffin.

I love it man... I turn 35 in a couple months.

[Old Sweater]

I love it man... I turn 35 in a couple months.

Are you in decline?;)

[RaysCubsHalos]

I think his numbers look especially poor (for him, at least) because of how anemic the rest of Seattle's offense is. We all know he'll turn it around and hit at lest .320 and swipe 40 bags. And hey, if that's a "drop" in production, I'd take that any day of the week!

[Zito75]

Are you in decline?;)

Mentally, yes. But that's because the A's offense is driving me insane!

[KCGHOST]

He isn't all that far from numbers he has posted in other years. Batting average is highly volatile for most players and Ichiro is no exception.Three times he has hit .350+ and four times he has hit less than .325. It would only take a modest hot streak to get him up to the low end of his norms.

[mrakbaseball]

There is no logical reason why Ichiro was moved back to RF. The only other CF within 75 put outs the past year and a half is Aaron Rowand. He has more value in CF. Corner outfielders are more easy to come by. The M's season has long been done so I guess it doesn't matter. Ichiro is the type of player that needs a B.A. over the .350 mark to be an offensive asset.

[Wade8813]

With the M's season all but over, moving Ichiro to RF for now to keep him happier makes sense. Also, to make things easier on him; less tiring.

[Westlake]

So he has only been an offensive asset twice in his career?

[mrakbaseball]

So he has only been an offensive asset twice in his career?

He's hit .350 or more 3 times. '01, '04, '07. He needs to hit that high because he doesn't walk often. He's had 1 season with a .400 on base percentage. Only 1 season with more than 30 doubles. His high for walks in a season is 68. He is strictly a singles hitter. For a singles hitter with that skillset, to be an asset you need a B.A. over .350.

[Seattle1]

At age 34 has he lost a step? :confused:

I really don't know how a cogent argument can be fabricated for Ichiro "losing a step" when he is on pace to steal the most bases in his career, and maybe even lead MLB in SB's.

That is a round-a-bout way to say, No, he is not losing a step. Bizarrely, everybody always seems to be waiting with baited breath for Ichiro to "lose a step." You hear it every year. He hasn't. He won't. He's playing at the exact same level or higher as he was in 2001 and will for years to come.

Just to let you know.


:rolleyes:

[abolishthedh]

Actually, Seattle1, virtually all players that come to mind have lost a step by the age of 35, and it doesn't show up in prompt fashion in any statistic. It doesn't show up promptly in SBs, because even though a step is lost the player might be attempting more steals for various reasons. The lost step doesn't show up promptly in BA because a player's BA is affected somewhat by the lineup's performance around the hitter, as well as other health concerns.

In Ichiro's case, I am the last one onboard as usual. Last year, I finally admitted that he was the legitimate equal of players like Carew, Boggs and Gwynn. All 3 of these guys are in the Hall, and they all slipped a little bit along the way only to rebound. Boggs had the biggest slip, but none of these 3 players fell off overnight. This may not be his best year, but its a good bet he'll have a couple of great years left.

[Old Sweater]

As Pine Tar pointed out/Ichiro=Lofton for the 1st 7 years

[mrakbaseball]

As Pine Tar pointed out/Ichiro=Lofton for the 1st 7 years

Lofton only had 1 season of 200 or more hits. Ichiro has never hit fewer than 200. All 7 seasons of 200+ hits. Lofton had 4 seasons with a .400 on base, Ichiro only 1. Lofton only had 3 seasons with 30 or more doubles, Ichiro once. Their career high for HRs is 15.

[Old Sweater]

Lofton only had 1 season of 200 or more hits. Ichiro has never hit fewer than 200. All 7 seasons of 200+ hits. Lofton had 4 seasons with a .400 on base, Ichiro only 1. Lofton only had 3 seasons with 30 or more doubles, Ichiro once. Their career high for HRs is 15.

Pine Tar had all that plus more and not one poster could challange him with any numbers showing Ichiro being better overall then Lofton in their 1st 7 years.

[Old Sweater]

Here it is.


I was watching TV today when two baseball writers stated that they would vote for Ichiro as a first ball hall of famer if he retired after only 7 seasons in baseball. That statement lead me to look at Ichiro's stats again. WHat his numbers reminded me of are the numbers of a young Kenny Lofton. Now, I know that most persons do not believe that Lofton is hall worthy, which leads me to ask you who was better in the beginnings of their respective careers?
Here are Ichiro's number for his first 7 years.
Games:1092
AB:4666
Runs:769
Hits:1555
2B:173
3B:57
HR:67
RBI:417
SB:272
CS:61
BB:320
SO:446
BA:333
OB%:379
Slug%:438
OPS+:120
6 gold gloves
7 all star teams

Here are Lofton's for his first 9 years. I am using 9 years since he lost a considerable amount of time to the 1994 and 1995 strikes and played very little for Houston his first year in the league.

Games:1096
AB:4379
Runs:852
Hits:1356
2B:212
3B:60
HR:63
RBI:412
SB:433
CS:107
BB:537
SO:590
BA:310
OB%:384
Slug%:429
OPS+:113
4 gold gloves
6 all star teams

My impressions of these numbers are that Lofton was a better on-base guy and Ichiro was a better batting average guy. But if all you are getting is singles, then what's the difference between that and a walk? Lofton also comes across as a much more prolific base stealer, with 161 more steals at about the same success rate. Both have won multiple gold gloves and appeared in about the same number of all star games. Ichiro's OPS+ is better, but not THAT much better. I mean, certainly not good enough to say he could simply retire today and begin carving his plaque for Cooperstown.

What do you think? Who was better at this point in their careers?

[willshad]

:confused:

I really don't know how a cogent argument can be fabricated for Ichiro "losing a step" when he is on pace to steal the most bases in his career, and maybe even lead MLB in SB's.

That is a round-a-bout way to say, No, he is not losing a step. Bizarrely, everybody always seems to be waiting with baited breath for Ichiro to "lose a step." You hear it every year. He hasn't. He won't. He's playing at the exact same level or higher as he was in 2001 and will for years to come.

Just to let you know.


:rolleyes:

Oh so you can see the future now? :-P

Seriously, though, Ichiro so far is really having thr worst year of his career. true, its not much off his 2005 numbers batting average and on base wise, but he also hit for more power that year. Is he getting less infield hits than he used to? The stolen bases is strange, on pace for about 70 steals and 4 caught stealing (!), so i wouldnt imagine hes any slower than he used to be. He just doesnt look like the same guy you can count on to get 2 hits every game (hes not even on a pace for 200 hits I believe)

[mrakbaseball]

Pine Tar had all that plus more and not one poster could challange him with any numbers showing Ichiro being better overall then Lofton in their 1st 7 years.

Ichiro has the 5 year 90 mil advantage. No other team but Seattle rewards singles like that. He plays where he wants. Lofton had no organizational pull like that. Ichiro also receives $32,000-$36,000 housing allowances. 4 round trip tickets from the Emerald City to the Land of the Rising Sun. His own interpreter, trainer. Transportation during spring training and the regular season. Lofton to my knowledge didn't punch himself in the face all those years he spent in Cleveland. Ichiro not a fan of the city in Ohio.

[willshad]

:confused:

I really don't know how a cogent argument can be fabricated for Ichiro "losing a step" when he is on pace to steal the most bases in his career, and maybe even lead MLB in SB's.

That is a round-a-bout way to say, No, he is not losing a step. Bizarrely, everybody always seems to be waiting with baited breath for Ichiro to "lose a step." You hear it every year. He hasn't. He won't. He's playing at the exact same level or higher as he was in 2001 and will for years to come.

Just to let you know.


:rolleyes:

Oh so you can see the future now? :-P

Seriously, though, Ichiro so far is really having thr worst year of his career. true, its not much off his 2005 numbers batting average and on base wise, but he also hit for more power that year. Is he getting less infield hits than he used to? The stolen bases is strange, on pace for about 70 steals and 4 caught stealing (!), so i wouldnt imagine hes any slower than he used to be. He just doesnt look like the same guy you can count on to get 2 hits every game (hes not even on a pace for 200 hits I believe)

[willshad]

Here it is.

I think most people would agree that Lofton had a hall of fame start to his career. The thing is that after 1999 or 2000 he really wasnt the same player. Im sure you can make the same comparison for Tim Raines. The reason Ichiro is conidered a sure hall of famer, and those guys borderline at best, is not due to the PRIME of their careers, but the OTHER parts of their careers. We do not know how Ichiro would have done in the major leagues at age 20-26, but it is a safe assumption he would have been beter and more durable than Raines and Lofton were AFTER their prime years were over. He likely would have had numbers like Raines had during his age 21-27 seasons. Combine that with his last 7 seasons, and you have an all time great. Especially when you consider that he maybe would already be approaching 3000 hits for his career.

[Seattle1]

Oh so you can see the future now? :-P

Seriously, though, Ichiro so far is really having thr worst year of his career. true, its not much off his 2005 numbers batting average and on base wise, but he also hit for more power that year. Is he getting less infield hits than he used to? The stolen bases is strange, on pace for about 70 steals and 4 caught stealing (!), so i wouldnt imagine hes any slower than he used to be. He just doesnt look like the same guy you can count on to get 2 hits every game (hes not even on a pace for 200 hits I believe)


There is a general malaise throughout the Mariner organization this season, obviously. The overall crappy team play is clearly affecting some of Ichiro's numbers to a degree too, so far. Who can blame him? But I fully anticipate he'll end up with his standard .300+ batting average, 200+ hits, 100+ runs, etc. when all is said and done.


:twocents:

[cardsfanatic]

I can't believe this thread has went on this long and isn't 14 pages of Ichiro fans fawning over the guy yet. I've tossed out the possibility that Ichiro isn't ageless before in threads where Ichiro fans seemed to think the guy would play until 45 at a peak level and get 4,000 hits before... and the Ichiro fans were never this timid. Heh.

I'm not claiming some victory here as it's quite early in the season still --and even then, it's only one season -- but I never could understand why Ichiro, a player with young man skills... is always expected to never age. Guys with his skill set tend to age very poorly.

[Westlake]

He's hit .350 or more 3 times. '01, '04, '07.

You said he is only an offensive asset when he hits OVER .350. Which has only happened twice.

[mrakbaseball]

'01,'04,'07
Those are the seasons he was an asset. With his skill set, he needs to reach the .350 mark. Oh yeah in '01 he hit .3497 which rounds up to .350.
Done. If you follow the Mariners from afar don't reply.

[Westlake]

'01,'04,'07
Those are the seasons he was an asset. With his skill set, he needs to reach the .350 mark. Oh yeah in '01 he hit .3497 which rounds up to .350.
Done. If you follow the Mariners from afar don't reply.

1. Don't tell anyone when/how to reply. So you don't want to talk to anyone about the Mariners unless they live in the state of Washington. That's all kinds of stupid.

2. Ichiro has been an above average hitter every single year he has been in MLB. 2002 was one of his best years yet he hit .321. He has hit 19 points less than your .350 mark for his career and has been a well above average hitter throughout. Add in his top flight base-running and he's an even better offensive player.

There's no middle ground with players like Ichiro. Some people will overstate how good he is and ignore that he lacks the power necessary to be one of the best hitters in the league. But the same people that dislike him won't even admit that he's a good or above average, which he is. He has a career 118 OPS+.. combine that with over 300 stolen bases at an 81% ratio and he's a very good offensive player.

[mrakbaseball]

1. Don't tell anyone when/how to reply. So you don't want to talk to anyone about the Mariners unless they live in the state of Washington. That's all kinds of stupid.

2. Ichiro has been an above average hitter every single year he has been in MLB. 2002 was one of his best years yet he hit .321. He has hit 19 points less than your .350 mark for his career and has been a well above average hitter throughout. Add in his top flight base-running and he's an even better offensive player.

There's no middle ground with players like Ichiro. Some people will overstate how good he is and ignore that he lacks the power necessary to be one of the best hitters in the league. But the same people that dislike him won't even admit that he's a good or above average, which he is. He has a career 118 OPS+.. combine that with over 300 stolen bases at an 81% ratio and he's a very good offensive player.

I didn't say you have to live in Washington to comment I don't live there. But looking at stat sheets as opposed to following the team with regularity are 2 different things. I like Ichiro, he's at the bottom of the totem pole of Seattle's problems. For the most part he's a good baserunner, he also makes mistakes. I like the fact that he slides feet first. There's more to baserunning than SB%. I like how he has stayed healthy. What good are you if you're on the DL.. He should be playing CF. It's the Mariners fault they don't have competent OFers that cover ground other than him in spacious Safeco.

[cardsfanatic]

There's no middle ground with players like Ichiro. Some people will overstate how good he is and ignore that he lacks the power necessary to be one of the best hitters in the league. But the same people that dislike him won't even admit that he's a good or above average, which he is. He has a career 118 OPS+.. combine that with over 300 stolen bases at an 81% ratio and he's a very good offensive player.

That 118 OPS+ is kinda diminished when he's primarily played RF, though. That's an offensive heavy position. A 118 OPS+ at SS or 2B? Brilliant. A 118 OPS+ in RF? Eh, kinda above average but nothing spectacular in my book. His speed and defense are certainly nice and Ichiro is a solid ballplayer that I'd classify as "good". He's hardly a stud nor does he deserve that MVP he's toting around. For quite awhile I felt he was the most overrated player in the game and among some of his more rabid fans he still is. But that contingent has died down a lot the last few years. For the longest time the guy was mentioned for every MVP award and would crush everyone in All-Star votes despite never, IMO, being a top 25 player in the league much less the best. The fact he has as many MVP's as guys Pujols, Chipper, Griffey Jr etc... drives me crazy, too. Especially when he's never, ever, for even one season been as good as those guys. He was literally the 4th best position player on his own team the year he won that MVP. I hope he polishes A-Rod's MVP award nightly -- you know, the 3rd most overrated player in baseball. :rofl:

[Erik Bedard]

Ichiro may indeed have lost a step.

Forget SBs for now. They aren't an accurate measure of speed, since there are so many other factors that affect them. Ichiro is a great base stealer for reasons that have nothing to do with his speed. That's why he is stealing bases.

Ichiro is only getting infield hits at a 10.1% rate, down from his 12.2 career rate. He has only reached on a third of his bunt hit attempts, compared to nearly half for his career. That, to me, indicates that he has lost maybe half a step, but for someone who relies on infield hits as much as he does, that's a crucial half step.

PS: cardsfanatic, thanks for the GLB link. I'm stuck in the D-League, but at least I'm starting (lvl 7 FS).

[Zito75]

Looks like Ichiro is still pacing to get 200 hits... So if you call that a decline, then I guess he is losing a step or two.

[willshad]

Ichiro has become Juan Pierre offensively.

[Seattle1]

I will be sure to resurrect this thread and laugh and laugh and laugh at the "losing a step" notion in a few years when Ichiro breaks his own record for most hits in one season at age 38 or 39 or something like that!

:laugh

[SamtheBravesFan]

Ichiro has become Juan Pierre offensively.

He's better defensively and he can actually slug once in a while, though. Ichiro isn't quite Juan Pierre yet.

[abolishthedh]

I will be sure to resurrect this thread and laugh and laugh and laugh at the "losing a step" notion in a few years when Ichiro breaks his own record for most hits in one season at age 38 or 39 or something like that!

:laugh

We'll be waiting. Meanwhile, what's to save any of the thousands of posters here at the Fever from doing the same when he doesn't?

[Mattingly]

'01,'04,
'07
Those are the seasons he was an asset. With his skill set, he needs to reach the .350 mark. Oh yeah in '01 he hit .3497 which rounds up to .350.
Done. If you follow the Mariners from afar don't reply.
I'm curious, why would a thread under CE, rather than the M's forum, be specifically for those who follow the Seattle team closely? Are people who are fans of other teams not allowed to ask questions and/or voice opinions contrary to one's own?

Now then, with his fielding and baserunning, you're saying that Ichiro was pulling the team down in the other years when he did not hit .350?

[digglahhh]

Ichiro has become Juan Pierre offensively.

I think it's a little premature to say that. We're not even at the All Star break. If he goes on one of these ten game tears over which he hits like .460 (he usually has at least one extremely hot stretch over the year), he'll be back.

Ichiro has been a very, very good player over his career. For all the lack of walks, he's still nearly .050 above the league average in terms of OBP over his career - that's nothing to sneeze at. .400 should certainly not be the benchmark for any player to be an offensive asset - even a singles hitter. Especially when that singles hitter is a plus baserunner. He's also been a great defensive OF. Is he in the league with the Pujolses, Chippers, Mannys - no. Is he a deserving perennial All Star? Sure.

Also, to Mrak - think outside the box a little bit. Yeah, Kenny Lofton never got a 90M contract. Kenny Lofton also never single handed opened up commerical markets in other continents. That's part of Ichiro's value to an organization. It doesn't make him a better player, but it does make the contract more palatable.

[baseball junkie]

Yes, I'm afraid he might only be slightly better than Kosuke Fukudome now -- although he still snags more bases.

[mrakbaseball]

I'm curious, why would a thread under CE, rather than the M's forum, be specifically for those who follow the Seattle team closely? Are people who are fans of other teams not allowed to ask questions and/or voice opinions contrary to one's own?

Now then, with his fielding and baserunning, you're saying that Ichiro was pulling the team down in the other years when he did not hit .350?

What are thoughts on the topic? Is Ichiro in decline? What is your opinion? What do you have to add to the topic? Please share your insight. Can't wait to read your words of wisdom. Where does it say Ichiro was "pulling the team down".? Of course the words "pulling the team down" are nowhere to be found. Don't put words in my mouth.

[Old Sweater]

Ichiro has become Juan Pierre offensively.

Ichiro only wishes.

[cardsfanatic]

I will be sure to resurrect this thread and laugh and laugh and laugh at the "losing a step" notion in a few years when Ichiro breaks his own record for most hits in one season at age 38 or 39 or something like that!

:laugh

You do that. If I had the time or desire I'd dig up the thread from before the 2007 season in which you _guaranteed_ that Felix Hernandez would win the AL Cy Young last season. When I brought up the fact that he had done nothing in his past (he was coming off a 12-14, 4.52 ERA year) to warrant such a bold claim despite any skill he may/may not have. You then said "you'll see, Felix Hernandez is the King!"

Heh, how'd that work out for ya?

We're not short on homers here at BBRef but you by far take the whole cake, amigo. I don't think I've ever read a post from you where you weren't slobbering all over a Mariner. If someone knew nothing about baseball other than you posts they'd think the Mariners had an offense of 9 Babe Ruths and a pitching staff full of Walter Johnson's.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Ichiro only wishes.

Are you trying to say that Juan Pierre is better than Ichiro?