A-Rod: Chasing74, 763, or 800

[Chasing74]

Now, this exact topic has been a very popular discussion in several other message boards and forums. 8) As a result, it is only right that we ask the same question here on Baseball Fever! :lol:


CHASING RECORDS

Which record do you think Alex Rodriguez will have a better chance of surpassing.... the single season record of 73 home-runs, the all-time record of 762 home-runs, or being the 1st player in the history of baseball to ever hit 800 home-runs?

Chasing74 - Chasing763 - Chasing800

[ipitch]

I know one thing for sure... he has a better chance of hitting 763 HRs than 800 HRs. :lightbulb:

[steve rogers]

It all comes down to his health. Arod has been VERY healthy his entire career, his current stint on the DL not withstanding. IF he stays healthy I believe he'll play until he's 43-45. He's one of those guys that's driven to excell and he's one of the greatest natural athletes to ever play the game.

IF he stays healthy here are the odds I give him:

Hitting 763+ Home Runs: 80%
Hitting 800+ HR's: 60%
Hitting 850+ HR's: 25%
Hitting 900+ HR's: 10%

I'm 32 years old and I can honestly say he's the greatest player I've ever seen. I think when it's all said and done he'll be the all time leader in home runs, RBI's, runs scored and total bases. He'll also have a couple rings.

Scott

[stejay]

All time HR record. Whether or not he doesit, is a different matter altogether.

[Urbanshocker13]

I think if he stays heathly :pray: the all-time homerun record is his, 800 maybe. 74 in a season, there is alot of factors and luck invovled in that one.

[bigbadwolf]

The single season HR record is held by Maris and the carer HR record is held by Aaron, unless it is acceptable to value records of steroid freaks.

[leecemark]

--You can value them or not as you wish. They are the records though.

[bigbadwolf]

They are the records only if they are accepted by people who would accept steroid freak cheaters.

[Urbanshocker13]

Yeah but they are the records in the books, and isn't it better to have a clean player like A-rod have those records and yes I do believe he is clean!

[stejay]

He is obviously clean. Canseco is the only one outside of Queens and Boston, who thinks that A Rod is on roids. Simple as that.

[YankeeFanUK]

A-Rod will break the all-time HR record...him & Pujols are two of the best ive seen

[bigbadwolf]

Yeah but they are the records in the books, and isn't it better to have a clean player like A-rod have those records and yes I do believe he is clean!

Yes it is better, and hopefully Arod will break Aarons record, although I do not think he will break Maris'.

[lions_baseball]

i think he will reach 800 without a doubt he has 521 right now and he has myabe 10 more years of playing time if not more. so lets say 40 hrs a season thats close to 1000. i kno his hr hitting will slow down as he gets older but even so he will break the all time record without a doubt but he will not break maris record. last season he had a fenominal year and had only 54 homers he has to be lucky and on his A game at the same time which will be pretty tough.

[Urbanshocker13]

Yes it is better, and hopefully Arod will break Aarons record, although I do not think he will break Maris'.
He might have a chance at Maris' (which is still th AL record) & 73 but there is just so many factors and just plain luck when it comes to single season records.

[Chasing74]

Thanks for the feedback guys, it is greatly appreciated.

I agree that when his career is over, he will hold every power related record in baseball... HR's, RBI's, total bases, etc. I really think he has a great shot to hit 800 HRs but also agree that 74 is extremely difficult!

As for the use off illegal performance enhancers, I hate the fact that these records are somewhat tainted, but at the end of it all... they are still the records and those are the numbers that we have to go by.

[bob]

I reckon he has a very good shot at Aaron's HR record, 800 is possible if he stays healthy into his 40's. RBI record is his for the taking, less than 800 short of it now, i can see him breaking it before he turns 40.
The single season record i cant see him doing. He might beat Maris's AL record though, although if he does its probably going to have to be within the next year or 2. Once he's past 35 i cant see him breaking 61.

[Yankee Legend]

He'll also have a couple rings.

Let's hope for that one.

I think a-rod can definitely break the all-time record. 800 is a bit of a stretch becuase i guarantee you late in his career, pitchers will give him the barry bonds (no pun intended) treatment. Same thing goes for 74 in a season.

[sandlot]

While I hope A-rod's present injury is a one-off, I'm afraid that these are the kind of things that start piling up over time. You lose 10 games a season to injury, there go at least 40-50 at bats. This happens over a few seasons, and suddenly your looking at hundreds of ABs. Over a decade, the number of at-bats lost to even minor injuries, colds, etc., can equal one full season. Ability counts for a lot, but staying healthy over time is the key.

[Chasing74]

Thanks for the feedback and yes, I hope you're right in terms of this injury being a rare occurrence for A-Rod. Gotta keep him healthy to make a run at 800 HR's and a run at Championship number 27. :)

[mandrake]

74 hrs in a season ? NO. At least 763 hrs for a career? YES
The best right handed power hitter ever? YES 800HRS? YES

Maris record of 61? YES. I think he will have one more monster season in him. He could have at least 4 40 hr seasons; then tail off with a few 30 hr seasons. That would be 61 + 160 + 120 ...that is scary...he could be up near 900 !

One negative. Let's give Joe D his due and not claim AROD broke his RH HR record. Please, Joe was shooting at fences of 457 and 461 feet. The 399 fence is a slap in the face !

[Chasing74]

That's true. You bring up a great point about the outfield distances. I hope you're right about the 61 count. It would be great to see A-Rod have that type of season.

Like I've said before, I agree that 74 is extremely challenging but definitely feel he has a great shot of getting the historic milestone of 800 HR's. :thumbsup:

[bigbadwolf]

The point about the fences in Yankee Stadium years ago before it was remodeled is very accurate. A review was doen regarding Mickey Mantle and his home runs. The gist of the review was how many home runs would Mickey Mantle have hit if he played in the refurbished Yankee Stadium. An overlay was done of the two parks and the resulting outcome was that Mantle would have had @950 career home runs playing within todays smaller fences. Just think about all the fly ball outs he hit and/or the doubles and triple Mantle got that traveled 400 to 460 in the alleys and to center that would all have been home runs today.

[Mattingly]

I remember several years ago, one of my friends was doing some research into Henry Aaron, then the greatest and most prolific HR hitter in MLB history. He'd happened upon a curious thing, which he'd found ironic: that Hammerin' Hank had never hit 50 in his career. Not once, and he'd 40 for a total of 7 times, with 47 in 1971 for his most productive longball season.

I've come to the conclusion, since the phenomenon was pointed out to me, that the single-season HR record and the career HR record were mutually exclusive. However, Barry Bonds achieving both, in 2001 and 2007, respectively, has turned that thought pattern upside down.

I still believe that they are mutually exclusive, since I don't believe that you can possibly have that many longballs in a season, then still have enough energy to come back in later season and still be as productive over an extended career for the next 10-12 years.

I don't see Alex Rodriguez being as super-productive in his later years in such a freakish manner as Barry Bonds did in 2001. Either case, Bonds hit 46, 45 and 45 over the following 3 seasons (2002-04). That's simply unreal and superhuman after such a historically productive season.

If Alex Rodriguez were to go after the HR record, and he does ascend to 600 at a good pace, I believe that, like Aaron, he'd have to concentrate on sub-50-HR seasons, but have consistent seasons in which he has 40-plus longballs. If he remains healthy, I believe that he may eventually ascend to 600, then 700 and beyond.

Anything above 700, however, is a milestone. It's kind of like climbing Mount Everest. How many have done so? Interesting facts (http://www.mnteverest.net/history.html) for those curious. In the case of the Nepalese mountain, its 29,000+ ft summit has been climbed, but there's none higher. That's what I've considered the 700+ HR mark. Its summit has been ascended, but there's nothing higher than this, unless someone freakishly gets to 800.

If and when Alex Rodriguez can scale such a high peak, and whether or not he still has enough oxygen left to go to even higher ground, that will determine just how high he can truly go.

It will be a very long trek, and I can only wish him all the best. :)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

In his prime Aaron was certainly capable of hitting 50 HRs, even 60 HRs. His home ballpark on Milwaukee kept him from reaching these milestones.

1957
Home: .306/.365/.543, 18 HRs
Road: .333/.390/.656, 26 HRs

1962
Home: .304/.371/.538, 18 HRs,
Road: .340/.408/.693, 27 HRs

1963
Home: .308/.386/.550, 19 HR
Road: .328/.396/.620. 25 HRs

[Mattingly]

HWR, thanks for posting here. You're certainly free to return as often as you wish. :)

I'm curious, what was the name of the park where the Milwaukee Braves played? I can't remember its name offhand, but I could find out its numbers once I got the name.

Was this too much of a pitcher's park why Aaron was slowed? Bonds played in big parks in San Francisco (Candlestick, then AT&T Park (formerly, SBC & Pac-Bell)). Any explanation why he dominated at such a ridiculous level (beyond the obvious PED accusations, I mean)?

[YankeeFanUK]

Pac Bell has a deep CF and right centre BUT its a short porch down the RF line...perfect for Barry ( i believe he hit 90% of all the splash hits into the cove )

[bigbadwolf]

barry bonds records do not exist in my book. He corrupted and cheated the game for self glory. May he live the rest of his life in torment and despair for what he did to the game.

[bigbadwolf]

I'm curious, what was the name of the park where the Milwaukee Braves played? I can't remember its name offhand, but I could find out its numbers once I got the name.

County Stadium

[Westlake]

barry bonds records do not exist in my book. He corrupted and cheated the game for self glory. May he live the rest of his life in torment and despair for what he did to the game.

Settle down there big guy.

[Mattingly]

County Stadium
Thanks. I appreciate this. :)

barry bonds records do not exist in my book. He corrupted and cheated the game for self glory. May he live the rest of his life in torment and despair for what he did to the game.
OK. But in the future, can you please tell us how you really feel about the guy? :D

Seriously, it's not the end of the world, as the sun still shines, there is still morning glory and people still have jobs to look forward to and loved ones to care for. I may dislike Barry Bonds, but I don't wish him any harm.

[mandrake]

I have always believed that Joe DiMaggio hitting 46 hrs in 1937 at the Old (real) Yankee Stadium was one of the most amazing HR feats, superior to Babe Ruth hitting 60 in 1927. Joe had those 457/461 numbers on the wall. I think Babe was shooting at a RF line that may have been as little as 257 feet when it opened, then 'pushed' back to 296 with a four foot high fence. The RF power alley, if you want to call it that , was only 344. Now, I am not Babe bashing, but I am just trying to compare apples to apples.

1921 is usually considered Babe Ruth's best year, but again the Polo Grounds had a 257 foot RF line. I know he hit some monster shots, including one over the roof, but there had to be a few cheapies somewhere.

Joe must have lost more than a few in the real Death Valley. I once heard a story that his brother Dom caught two out there in the same game, and Joe did not talk to his brother until Christmas.

Back to A-ROD"
He'll turn 33 this July. His 162 game average season has been 44 hrs with a high of 57. He started the season with 523 hrs. If he stays healthy and plays until he is 40, he will own the record. If he averages 35 hrs for 8 years, he shatters 800.

[bigbadwolf]

Re Babe and the Polo Grounds. Yes right field line was @257, the wall was 12 feet high and went in a straight line out from the line. The power alleys were over 400 feet and dead center was 481 feet. You are right, Babe surely got some 'cheapy home runs', but I bet he lost many more with outs or long hits to the alleys and center. They had some huge ballparks in the 20's thru 60's. Clevelands Municpal Stadium was over 500 feet to center. Can you imageine what those guys back in those eras would hit in todays small parks.