Howard, Utley, or Rollins?

[willshad]

All 3 are about the same age, on the same team. My question is which guy has the best shot at the hall of fame?


Chase Utley: Already has one of the best second baseman peaks ever, and looked headed for an MVP award last season before getting hurt. Got off to kind of a late start, so likely wont have great career counting numbers. Comparable to jeff Kent (a likely hall of famer), but way ahead of where
Kent was at the same age.

Ryan Howard: Also got off to a late start, but has already won an MVP and has amazing power. Even so, he showed serious regression last season and went from being Jimmie Foxx to being Adam Dunn. 105 homers the last 2 seasons. A year younger than both Rollins and Utley.

Jimmy Rollins: Started young and is very durable, so already has over 1300 hits, and an MVP at short. Overrated offensively, but is a runs, hits, and steals machine. Will likely end up with great career stats, especially for a shortstop..but OPS+ is under league average.

[hellborn]

I like this poll a lot! Nice idea, wilshad.

I see Howard as being the new Cecil Fielder...huge guy, tons of power, late start, limited mobility, little defensive value. Cecil had a number of good years and I expect Ryan will, also, but neither will ever be considered a serious HOF candidate. I just don't see a guy of Ryan's size being able to be a ML starter into his late 30s, just like we knew Cecil wouldn't be an elite player for a long time.

Utley may be the best player of the bunch, but will have to play for a long time to get his counting numbers up. Sandberg was able to make it into the HOF despite his unfortunate first retirement, due to his great start...Utley will have to last extra long to get past his late start. I give him a shot, but the deck is stacked against him.

Rollins is about the same age as Utley, but has twice as many career hits. He's not an extraordinarily efficient offensive player, but he has a lot of strengths that stand out. People will forget that his defense wasn't among the best in the league. He gets attention, is popular with the fans and media, and has a great start on his counting stats...he seems like the kind of guy who is always going to be in great shape and focused, so I'll say he'll play well for many years and make the HOF.

[KCGHOST]

The HoF can be a funny place at times to get into. I like Utley as the best player here, but don't think he has much chance to get into the HoF. His late start will deprive him of the counting numbers needed to bolster his case.

You have to love Howard's power, but how long will it last? He is loved by the MVP voters which helps. If his stud power lasts through his age 35 season he will have a reasonable shot.

Rollins has been a lat bloomer. His career OPS+ is 98 which should be all you need to know, but he did get a real early start and is loved by the media. He's already got 1300 hits can could challenge the 3K hit mark by his late 30's. Being loved by the media and 3K hits is a mortal lock.

[Freakshow]

The infamous Hall of Fame Monitor has them neck-and-neck:

Rollins....55
Utley.....49
Howard..45

[Brad Harris]

I don't see any of these three being Hall worthy. Utley is the best player amongst them. Rollins has the best chance of fashioning a career the voters will notice.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I peg Utley as the guy to to age the best over Rollins and Howard. He did get kind of a late start but it's not like he's 33 years old already. The '08 season will be his age 29 season. If his '07 performance is real and if he can substain that level say until age 35 then that would be eight elite seasons with his decline still in front of him. He has a career 126 OPS+ but in his three full seasons ('05-'07) it's at 133. He could hit 350+ HR and that will at least put him in any HoF discussion.

[Freakshow]

I don't see any of these three being Hall worthy. Utley is the best player amongst them. Rollins has the best chance of fashioning a career the voters will notice.
FWIW, Bill James agrees with you:

50% Rollins
25% Howard
15% Utley

[Honus Wagner Rules]

FWIW, Bill James agrees with you:

50% Rollins
25% Howard
15% Utley

That doesn't really mean much. What was Jeff Kent's percentage at age 29? I'm pretty sure it was a lot lower than 15%.

[hellborn]

That doesn't really mean much. What was Jeff Kent's percentage at age 29? I'm pretty sure it was a lot lower than 15%.

I guess this means Kent is in the HOF?

[Brad Harris]

FWIW, Bill James agrees with you:

50% Rollins
25% Howard
15% Utley

Not surprised. Bill's been stealing my stuff for years now. ;)

[Fuzzy Bear]

Utley is unpredictable. He will have to stay at 2B to make the HOF. He's fashioning a late-arriving Ryne Sandberg-ish career, but he's not the glove Sandberg is. If he is ever shifted to the OF or 1B, the truncating of his career will nix his HOF chances.

Howard is, in fact, the best player of the bunch. He has a .743 OWP over 3 years, and while he was regarded as a disappointment last year, his OWP was still .706. Howard, like Utley, is a late arrival, but he's a truly dominant slugger, and should get more consideration than he does.

Rollins has had the longer career, has the MVP (a questionable, but defensible pick), and is showing good longevity. If he breaks the career record for hits by a shortstop, he may well make the HOF without getting to 3K hits. If he wins more Gold Gloves, ditto. He's in the lead right now.

Until this year I thought little of Rollins, but he's got 1,307 hits going into his age 29 season. That's impressive; it shows he got an early start and stayed in the lineup. It's VERY impressive for a shortstop (and, yes, I know Rollins didn't major in plate discipline). If he breaks the career record for hits by a SS (held now by Aparicio, threatened by Vizquel) he'll be a strong contender, even if he isn't as good as some think he is.

[leecemark]

--Do you really think most hits by a SS is a mark that gets you into the Hall? I had no idea Aparicio held it or that Vizquel was close. Getting it won't get Vizquel there for me, nor would it for Rollins.

[Fuzzy Bear]

--Do you really think most hits by a SS is a mark that gets you into the Hall? I had no idea Aparicio held it or that Vizquel was close. Getting it won't get Vizquel there for me, nor would it for Rollins.

I don't know, but it will be brought up.

The guy who holds the record (Aparicio) is in the HOF for his glove. If Omar Vizquel gets in the HOF, it will be due to his glove, and not the hit record (which he is only 80 hits away from obtaining).

Rollins' credentials, unlike the other two, will be based on his offense. He may win some more GG awards, but those will support his offensive credentials, and not vice versa.

Rollins isn't as good as people think he is, but if he keeps up what he's been doing for another 5 years, he'll finish his career with 250-300 HRs. I can't see the HOF turning away Rollins if he gets to 300 career HRs AND gets around 2,700 hits as a SS. Even if he doesn't make it to 300, if he gets to 250 HRs and 2,700 hits, he's got a good shot.

[leecemark]

--I'm not saying he won't make it. I'd say he has a reasonable chance. If he can hold down a starting job into his late-30s even a good chance. I just don't think that having the record for most hts by a SS is going to be a big factor in whether he makes it or nor (excepting that it would mean he did put together a long career).

[Cowtipper]

Let's play the projections game!

Ryan Howard:

1538 games
5591 at-bats
991 runs
1615 hits
266 doubles
7 triples
517 home runs
1413 RBI
7 stolen bases
1056 base on balls
1929 strikeouts
.289 average

Chase Utley:

1583 games
6156 at-bats
1155 runs
1914 hits
455 doubles
52 triples
281 home runs
1109 RBI
131 stolen bases
611 base on balls
1139 strikeouts
.311 average

Jimmy Rollins:

2234 games
9617 at-bats
1686 runs
2723 hits
551 doubles
186 triples
291 home runs
1071 RBI
523 stolen bases
727 base on balls
1207 strikeouts
.283 average

These were all done using Bill James' favorite toy.

Projections like these should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Any one of these guys could have a career threatening injury this year and get no where near the numbers projected.

Right now, I'd say Jimmy Rollins has the best shot at the Hall of Fame. He's already proven he can do well in the majors for a considerable amount of time, not just two or three years like Ryan Howard or Chase Utley. A lot of guys did great for two or three years and never really did anything Hall of Fame worthy in the end...like Edgardo Alfonzo or Andy Van Slyke, for example.

If all three players reach the statistics projected of them, I'd put Rollins in first, then Utley, then Howard. Howard hits for a lot of power, whereas Rollins and Utley can hit for some power and steal some bases. Plus they both have a better eye than Howard.

[Blackout]

Chase Utley is one of the best hitting second basemen

howard on the other hand has a shot at being the next barry bonds (ie a guy who gets IBB'd 50+ times in a season) if he stops striking out so much

jimmy rollins career wise has an ops+ below 100 but he is an above average offensive player IMO

[Blackout]

All 3 are about the same age, on the same team. My question is which guy has the best shot at the hall of fame?


Chase Utley: Already has one of the best second baseman peaks ever, and looked headed for an MVP award last season before getting hurt. Got off to kind of a late start, so likely wont have great career counting numbers. Comparable to jeff Kent (a likely hall of famer), but way ahead of where
Kent was at the same age.

Ryan Howard: Also got off to a late start, but has already won an MVP and has amazing power. Even so, he showed serious regression last season and went from being Jimmie Foxx to being Adam Dunn. 105 homers the last 2 seasons. A year younger than both Rollins and Utley.


adam dunn?? howard had 18 more strikeouts than the previous year, thats not that much of an incease.

[bob]

Howard is far too early into his career to really judge. If he caries on his offensive numbers into his mid/late 30's he'll be a lock-in, but he has some things that really might hurt him.
SO rates that only Adam Dunn can relate to, and a grand total of 1 stolen base and 3 triples in 1461 AB's shows that he's very much a 1 trick pony right now. He's only saving grace is that his one trick is home runs and that he's pretty damn good at it.

[jalbright]

Howard is far too early into his career to really judge. If he caries on his offensive numbers into his mid/late 30's he'll be a lock-in, but he has some things that really might hurt him.
SO rates that only Adam Dunn can relate to, and a grand total of 1 stolen base and 3 triples in 1461 AB's shows that he's very much a 1 trick pony right now. He's only saving grace is that his one trick is home runs and that he's pretty damn good at it.

Howard also has plate discipline at the very least (100+ walks in each of his two full years), and I think last season's injury/early funk is what lowered the average. I think he'll be back around his career .291 average, and if that's correct, he's a rather high average hitter as well. Dunn may have the walk, power and K parts, but his best averages can't quite reach Howard's low mark of .268 last year, and, like I said, I think that was an off year for Howard (he was at best in the low 200s at the end of May last year and spent the rest of the year hauling it up to where it finished).

[Fuzzy Bear]

Let's play the projections game!

Ryan Howard:

1538 games
5591 at-bats
991 runs
1615 hits
266 doubles
7 triples
517 home runs
1413 RBI
7 stolen bases
1056 base on balls
1929 strikeouts
.289 average

Chase Utley:

1583 games
6156 at-bats
1155 runs
1914 hits
455 doubles
52 triples
281 home runs
1109 RBI
131 stolen bases
611 base on balls
1139 strikeouts
.311 average

Jimmy Rollins:

2234 games
9617 at-bats
1686 runs
2723 hits
551 doubles
186 triples
291 home runs
1071 RBI
523 stolen bases
727 base on balls
1207 strikeouts
.283 average

These were all done using Bill James' favorite toy.

Projections like these should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Any one of these guys could have a career threatening injury this year and get no where near the numbers projected.

Right now, I'd say Jimmy Rollins has the best shot at the Hall of Fame. He's already proven he can do well in the majors for a considerable amount of time, not just two or three years like Ryan Howard or Chase Utley. A lot of guys did great for two or three years and never really did anything Hall of Fame worthy in the end...like Edgardo Alfonzo or Andy Van Slyke, for example.

If all three players reach the statistics projected of them, I'd put Rollins in first, then Utley, then Howard. Howard hits for a lot of power, whereas Rollins and Utley can hit for some power and steal some bases. Plus they both have a better eye than Howard.


If Jimmy Rollins actually achieves these projections here, he will go into the HOF.

Indeed, they all three would. The only POSSIBLE exception would be Utley, and only if he had to be switched to LF/1B within the next year or two. If Utley attained these career projections, there would be no precedent for keeping him out, even given the HUGE gray area among HOF second basemen.

[Brooklyn]

The guy who holds the record (Aparicio) is in the HOF for his glove. If Omar Vizquel gets in the HOF, it will be due to his glove, and not the hit record (which he is only 80 hits away from obtaining).



If and when Vizquel passes Aparacio, he won't hold it very long. Assuming he stays healthy, Jeter will pass him a year or two after he passes Aparacio.




Rollins has had the longer career, has the MVP (a questionable, but defensible pick), and is showing good longevity. If he breaks the career record for hits by a shortstop, he may well make the HOF without getting to 3K hits. If he wins more Gold Gloves, ditto. He's in the lead right now.



The way Jeter is going, Rollins will need 3k and more to come close to this record

[digglahhh]

Howard is far too early into his career to really judge. If he caries on his offensive numbers into his mid/late 30's he'll be a lock-in, but he has some things that really might hurt him.
SO rates that only Adam Dunn can relate to, and a grand total of 1 stolen base and 3 triples in 1461 AB's shows that he's very much a 1 trick pony right now. He's only saving grace is that his one trick is home runs and that he's pretty damn good at it.

Although it is early in his career - Howard is actually 28.

Basically, he needs to just put up 8-10 MONSTER years, competing for OPS crowns basically every year. If he does that, he can establish a good peak case.

[digglahhh]

Howard is, in fact, the best player of the bunch. He has a .743 OWP over 3 years, and while he was regarded as a disappointment last year, his OWP was still .706. Howard, like Utley, is a late arrival, but he's a truly dominant slugger, and should get more consideration than he does.

Right, but Utley is a competent 2B with a .676 career OWP. Personally, I'd choose that combination of skills.

IMO, Utley is clearly the best player out of the bunch.

[digglahhh]

I guess this means Kent is in the HOF?

You'd peg his chances at getting in at a lot higher than 15% though, right?

I think that was the extent of the point that was being made.

[willshad]

id love to see a case for NOT putting jeff Kent in the hall of fame

[Go get em Tigers]

I say Rollins, just because I'm SO impressed with his at bat totals. Seven consecutive seasons with well over 600 at bats, including 719 last year, highest total in major league history!

[hellborn]

I think that Kent will eventually make it...the question for me is, how much will the voters remember and consider his poor defensive reputation. If Kent is viewed as a LFer played out of position at 2B, his numbers might not be viewed as good enough. But, he did play second well enough to spend his career there, and he should get credit for that. His raw defensive numbers don't look horrendous, but I have no idea what any of the advanced metrics have to say about him. His OBP is probably the weakest part of his offense, but HOF voters aren't going to pay attention to that. The MVP definitely helps him a lot.
One negative consideration is that Kent is widely viewed as a selfish, arrogant jerk. Many of the writers voting for him will remember him personally, and that can't help him. The ugly scene where he broke his wrist riding his motorcycle and then tried to lie to the team and say it happened while he was washing his truck will not be forgotten, either. He lied because his contract didn't allow him to dirt bike, of course.
I can see Kent getting the Rice treatment and taking years to build up HOF support, but I do believe he'll make it. If he ends up being strongly suspected of PED use, he'll be dumped, though.

Back to the Phils, I would agree that Utley is the best player of the three. It's not cut and dried, though. If Howard gets back to his '06 numbers, it would be hard to not take him, even with his defensive and mobility limitations. But, I think that Ryan is going to follow the Cecil Fielder career path and have several years of very good, but slowly declining, offensive numbers.

[gregpphoto]

I say Rollins, just because I'm SO impressed with his at bat totals. Seven consecutive seasons with well over 600 at bats, including 719 last year, highest total in major league history!

But he hasnt done it for too long. People too often get carried away by a guy who has one great season. Does this mean Rollins wont ever make it to the HOF? Not neccessarily, but its too early to tell.

[Cowtipper]

But he hasnt done it for too long. People too often get carried away by a guy who has one great season. Does this mean Rollins wont ever make it to the HOF? Not neccessarily, but its too early to tell.

Same with Utley and Howard. They've only been doing great for two-three years. Rollins at least has proven he can perform well for an extended period of time.

[stejay]

Ryan Howard in my opinion. He has the most RAW talent out the 3 of them, and is only a matter of time before he adds to his MVP win, with a WS,or another MVP.

[digglahhh]

Same with Utley and Howard. They've only been doing great for two-three years. Rollins at least has proven he can perform well for an extended period of time.

Actually, he's proven that he can perform at 98% of the average major league hitter over an extended period of time. (Though, that's actually above average for a SS).


And as for his AB total, that's certainly not due to him creating extra opportunities for himself. It's due to hitting leadoff on a great offense and never walking. Even last year, his OBP was below league average!

[Cowtipper]

Rollins has been around for only eight years and already has a black ink of 13, which isn't too shabby. There are some Hall of Famers who don't even have black ink of 13.

And as for his AB total, that's certainly not due to him creating extra opportunities for himself. It's due to hitting leadoff on a great offense and never walking. Even last year, his OBP was below league average!
Good point. Rollins may near 3,000 hits in his career, but that may be because he is in a position to get 680 at-bats a year and therefore all the more chances to get a hit.

Of course, I am basing my Hall of Fame predictions on where the players are right now and what they've done thus far and how much they've proven themselves and so forth. I haven't said I do not believe Howard can't get in the Hall - if he keeps up his gargantuan power numbers, he can - but right now I believe Rollins has the best chance.

If Utley can stay at second base his whole career and match the projections, then he may reach the Hall as well. However, projections don't really mean anything because what the player actually does is what is most important.

[digglahhh]

I'm inclined to agree with your interpretation of the chances.

I'd give Rollins the best chance of actual ultimate induction at this point, though I think he is also, clearly, not as good as either of the other guys. If he continues to have season like last year's, though at this point it has to still be considered "a career year," then he may be able to make up most of the difference between him and Howard with above average SS defense and very good speed. It is really hard to overcome what will be, in some years, and approximate .100 OBP deficiency, though.

If Howard has more years like 2006, Rollins's best just won't be good enough. If Howard puts up just very very good, but not staggering powering numbers, Rollins has a shot. If Utley continues to put up numbers like last season's (over full seasons), he looks to be out of reach for either player, in terms of ceiling. Utley was coasting toward the MVP last season, until he injured himself.

[willshad]

I think that Kent will eventually make it...the question for me is, how much will the voters remember and consider his poor defensive reputation. If Kent is viewed as a LFer played out of position at 2B, his numbers might not be viewed as good enough. But, he did play second well enough to spend his career there, and he should get credit for that. His raw defensive numbers don't look horrendous, but I have no idea what any of the advanced metrics have to say about him. His OBP is probably the weakest part of his offense, but HOF voters aren't going to pay attention to that. The MVP definitely helps him a lot.
One negative consideration is that Kent is widely viewed as a selfish, arrogant jerk. Many of the writers voting for him will remember him personally, and that can't help him. The ugly scene where he broke his wrist riding his motorcycle and then tried to lie to the team and say it happened while he was washing his truck will not be forgotten, either. He lied because his contract didn't allow him to dirt bike, of course.
I can see Kent getting the Rice treatment and taking years to build up HOF support, but I do believe he'll make it. If he ends up being strongly suspected of PED use, he'll be dumped, though.

Back to the Phils, I would agree that Utley is the best player of the three. It's not cut and dried, though. If Howard gets back to his '06 numbers, it would be hard to not take him, even with his defensive and mobility limitations. But, I think that Ryan is going to follow the Cecil Fielder career path and have several years of very good, but slowly declining, offensive numbers.


To me, Kent is in the same boat as Mike Piazza and Chipper Jones. They are all probably 1-3 all time hitting wise at their respective positions (although Piazza is definitely #1 and Jones arguably #1 as well), but have reputations for bad fielding.if you dont put Kent in, I dont see how you can put those other guys in.

[willshad]

Although it is early in his career - Howard is actually 28.

Basically, he needs to just put up 8-10 MONSTER years, competing for OPS crowns basically every year. If he does that, he can establish a good peak case.

Since when is 8-10 years considered a 'peak'? That's pretty much an entire core of a career, and all thats needed after that is a 'decline' phase. As far as Im concerned, one more great year and he already has a peak case. I mean, if he can average what he has for the last 2 years for the next 10, then he would have about 630 lifetime home runs. The main factor i think is whether 2006 is Howard's norm, or whether 2007 is. He was basically Jimmy Foxx in 2006 and Harmon Killebrew in 2007. Since he probbaly wont have as long a career as either one of those guys, he needs to manitain closer to the 2006 numbers I think.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

To me, Kent is in the same boat as Mike Piazza and Chipper Jones. They are all probably 1-3 all time hitting wise at their respective positions (although Piazza is definitely #1 and Jones arguably #1 as well), but have reputations for bad fielding.if you dont put Kent in, I dont see how you can put those other guys in.

There is a difference between Jones/Piazza and Kent, though. I think Kent is much further from the historical greats (Hornsby, Morgan, Gehringer, LaJoie) than Jones is from the historic third baseman and Piazza is from the historic cathers. Shoot, Piazza finished third in our recent all time cather's poll just 4 points behind Piazza. I think Jones would finish around 4th-6th if we took a thirdbasemen's poll today. I'm not sure Kent would finish that high.

[willshad]

There is a difference between Jones/Piazza and Kent, though. I think Kent is much further from the historical greats (Hornsby, Morgan, Gehringer, LaJoie) than Jones is from the historic third baseman and Piazza is from the historic cathers. Shoot, Piazza finished third in our recent all time cather's poll just 4 points behind Piazza. I think Jones would finish around 4th-6th if we took a thirdbasemen's poll today. I'm not sure Kent would finish that high.

I think part of the problem is that Kent is so unique for his position. Obviously Hornsby is in a class by himself, but whether all the rest were better hitters than Kent or not is hard to say, since they were vastly different offensive types. He is an RBI guy with good triple crown stats but little else. Someione like Morgan is just the opposite...low average and not much power..but an ideal leadoff hitter type. Gehringer is a pretty good match offensively for Kent..same exact career OPS+, but he hit for a little more average and Kent a little more power. Both were good RBI men. Gehringer has a bit more longevity, but then again kent was a late bloomer, and is still playing at a high level. You cant really argue Kent being better than Gehringer offensively, but you also cant really argue that Charlie is too much ahead of Jeff, either. And its not like Gehringer is a borderline hall of famer..he's a first ballot no brainer.

[JerseySoxFan19]

I say all 3 get in to tell you the truth.

[digglahhh]

Since when is 8-10 years considered a 'peak'? That's pretty much an entire core of a career, and all thats needed after that is a 'decline' phase. As far as Im concerned, one more great year and he already has a peak case. I mean, if he can average what he has for the last 2 years for the next 10, then he would have about 630 lifetime home runs. The main factor i think is whether 2006 is Howard's norm, or whether 2007 is. He was basically Jimmy Foxx in 2006 and Harmon Killebrew in 2007. Since he probbaly wont have as long a career as either one of those guys, he needs to manitain closer to the 2006 numbers I think.

Okay - couple of things.

1. The guy is 28 and barely into his career, so his peak case will be very similar to his career case.

2. I didn't mean 8-10 more years, I meant 8-10 total years, of which he already has two under his belt.

3. When I say "peak," I'm not talking about his absolute personal best, a level which is often not sustained very long. I'm talking about the level of sustained play that defines a player's career. I mean, we could say that Al Rosen had a similar peak to Chipper Jones, but that would be a little misleading, no? I mean, they did have similar peaks, except Jones sustained it, or came very close to sustaining it for like four times as long. That's why one's a no-brainer and the other is a, wow, who the hell is that guy and what happened to him?

4. One more great year and he already has a peak case? Really? Three seasons of a composite 150-ish OPS+ and nothing else is all that is needed for a 1B to get HOF consideration from you? That's pretty generous.

[willshad]

One more year like 2006 and id say hed have a 3 year peak comparable to most hall of fame first basemen. Mccovey is bassically in based on a 3 year peak. Dick Alen gets a lot of hall support here, and he had a short career, and only a couple of great seasons. True that Howard will probably not play very long..but a couple more seasons like 2006 and a few more like 2007 then a normal decline will get him in. You cant just go by OPS+ either. In 2006 Howard had a line of 58, 149, .313 and 108 walks , and an OPS+ of 167. Dick Allen in 1969 had an OPS+ of 165 with a line of 32, 89, .288 and 64 walks. Howard's season was historcally great(the most homers by a non juiced player since 1961), and a couple more like it would make him a historically important player.