40/40 Club

[mendoza line]

whos the next member?
1. hanRam-might take him til 2010 or to get out of that pitchers park in florida.
2. soriano-2 times i 3 years? legs stay healthy and still leads off 2008 may be his last shot.
3. bj upton-hitting in the 3 slot probably doesnt help, but he has the tools. he fills out and stays healthy i think he can do it.

sizemore and wright (imo) will never hit 40 or even steal 40 in there career, unless willie randolph plays uber aggressive choke baseball and gives wright the permanent green light. chris young will be a lifetime 260 hitter, probably wont get on base enough. i see delmon young in his peak as a 40/25 guy.

[AutographCollector]

wright (imo) will never hit 40 or even steal 40 in there career, unless willie randolph plays uber aggressive choke baseball and gives wright the permanent green light.

Boy are you wrong. Last year Wright joined the 30/30 club. He'll join the 40/40 club this year. And him hitting 40 homers and swiping 40 bases has WHAT to do with last year? Last year was just that... LAST year.

[philkid3]

He'll join the 40/40 club this year.

Can I borrow your time machine?

[AutographCollector]

Can I borrow your time machine?

Sure. The Rangers will be above .500 this season. ;)

On a side note: I'm not sure what's so difficult about believing that Wright COULD be a 40/40 member. He has the power, and has showed that he is speedy on the base paths.

[metfan13]

I think 40 homers is something he'll do at some point. I also think it's more likely that he'll take less chances on the basepaths. His basestealing skill is more a matter of reading pitchers well. If they pay more attention to him as if he's a true basestealer they may be able to limit him enough to make 40 a stretch.

[AutographCollector]

If they pay more attention to him as if he's a true basestealer they may be able to limit him enough to make 40 a stretch.

Just curious when I ask: Why doesn't that work when Reyes is on the base paths then?

[SamtheBravesFan]

Just curious when I ask: Why doesn't that work when Reyes is on the base paths then?

Because he's faster, I guess *shrugs*

[philkid3]

Sure. The Rangers will be above .500 this season. ;)

On a side note: I'm not sure what's so difficult about believing that Wright COULD be a 40/40 member.
I'm not sure, either.

I'm less sure of how you know his results on the season already.

[philkid3]

BP projects Wright as 30/21 this year. His 90th percentile is 36/23. I'm probably inclined to take the over and say he'll push closer to 30/30, but I wouldn't bet on him getting 40/40.

[OleMissCub]

If Fonzo stays healthy, he might could do it again. Lou has said that the Cubs are going to be very aggressive this year on the basepaths.

[AutographCollector]

I'm less sure of how you know his results on the season already.

Just like everyone says that their team will win the World Series this year, it's a statement not a fact. Shall I reword my words?

[philkid3]

Just like everyone says that their team will win the World Series this year, it's a statement not a fact. Shall I reword my words?

I tend to call them out, too.


If Fonzo stays healthy, he might could do it again. Lou has said that the Cubs are going to be very aggressive this year on the basepaths.

Piniella's teams are also fairly consistently the most efficient base stealing teams. Unlike some managers who run a lot, he actually makes good use of it.

[Jermz]

I think David Wright is one of the best players in the game, but I would tend to think he may become more of an AVG. hitter than increase his power/steals. I would predict him to hit another 30-32 HR's this year and steal 25-30 bases, but I see his AVG. going up to about .330-.335. Not sure if he will ever be 40/40, but he will definitely be one of the best hitters in the game for years to come, and a future MVP.

[digglahhh]

I doubt Wright will be a 40/40 guy, but other than Soriano he's as good a guess as anybody.

Like I said, I don't see 40/40. I see him hovering in the 25-35 category in both categories throughout his prime, along with a BA in the neighborhood of .320 and an OBP in the low fours. All could go right (ha!) one year and he could go 40/40, but he'd probably need his career high in HR and SBs to happen in the same season for that to happen - it's just unlikely.

Hanley Ramirez is the other popular candidate, but I'm not sold on his ability to hit 40 homers.

I don't think Soriano will do it again.

Truthfully, I wouldn't bet on any of them doing it.

At this point, I'd say Chris B. Young would be a better bet, just because of the greater potential for improvement.

BTW, I'll literally puke if Jimmy Rollins ever does it!

[sturg1dj]

Boy are you wrong. Last year Wright joined the 30/30 club. He'll join the 40/40 club this year. And him hitting 40 homers and swiping 40 bases has WHAT to do with last year? Last year was just that... LAST year.

Wright will NEVER be 40-40......EVER

save this, cause it could end me.....because I bet my life on it!

[philkid3]

Wright will NEVER be 40-40......EVER

save this, cause it could end me.....because I bet my life on it!

I've already subscribed to this thread because of AutographCollector saying he will, so I'll extend you the same courtesy if he does. :laugh

[Erik Bedard]

... unless willie randolph plays uber aggressive choke baseball and gives wright the permanent green light.

Boy are you wrong. Last year Wright joined the 30/30 club. He'll join the 40/40 club this year. And him hitting 40 homers and swiping 40 bases has WHAT to do with last year? Last year was just that... LAST year.

It has a lot to do with last year in the context that mendoza line had it in. The Mets were second in the NL in caught stealing, a factor that has to have somehow contributed to their infamous choke. Jose Reyes, he of the 73 steals, was caught so many times that he was barely above the break-even point. David Wright saw his success rate drop by 15 percent after Rickey Henderson, who advocated stealing in any situation, was hired. If the Mets hadn't played so aggressively, and instead let the middle of their order knock in runs instead of trying to force Reyes, Wright, and Beltran to steal them all, then they might not have choked.

[sturg1dj]

It has a lot to do with last year in the context that mendoza line had it in. The Mets were second in the NL in caught stealing, a factor that has to have somehow contributed to their infamous choke. Jose Reyes, he of the 73 steals, was caught so many times that he was barely above the break-even point. David Wright saw his success rate drop by 15 percent after Rickey Henderson, who advocated stealing in any situation, was hired. If the Mets hadn't played so aggressively, and instead let the middle of their order knock in runs instead of trying to force Reyes, Wright, and Beltran to steal them all, then they might not have choked.

even though I do not believe Wright will get 40-40 I still disagree with what you say. For one, saying Reyes was barely above break even is an exaggeration. He was caught 21 times which still a 78% success rate. Its not Tim Raines, but its not bad. And I would assume they lead the league in caught because they had Reyas, and other teams do not run as much.

as for Wright, he was 30-30...and was 34 of 39 stealing which is very good....but at the same time he has never hit 40 home runs and has never stolen 40 bases. Knowing this let me point out that there have been others who one would assume would have been 40-40 but never did it. A young Vlad Guerrero came close, and one would assume he'd be able to do it, but never did. Carlos Beltran was another yet he no longer steal bases. Heck, Eric Davis was going to do it for sure. All in all its been done 4 times, and of those four times I would argue 4 were achieved because the player made an effort to do it. What I mean by that is Canseco had a goal of 40-40, A-Rod did it and never really stole bases after that (at least not at 40-per) and Soriano was in a contract season and his current GM made it clear that he thought Soriano was going to do 50-50. Bonds for the longest time was always close, and thats just how good he was.


That all being said, I think that Wright is too good a hitter, and his team is in too thick of a race (haha, assumption coming during the spring) to be trying to hit home runs and trying to steal bases. I would doubt if he is 30-30 again while hitting .330.



AND.....let me add that for someone to go from a 30 HR guy to a 40 hr guy he needs to bulk up, which mean he could lose some speed. There is a way to increase both strength and speed, but I believe they test for it

[Zagi-CRO]

Boy are you wrong. Last year Wright joined the 30/30 club. He'll join the 40/40 club this year. And him hitting 40 homers and swiping 40 bases has WHAT to do with last year? Last year was just that... LAST year.

Not only Wright! 30/30 last year


HR SB
Jimmy Rollins 30 41
David Wright 30 34
Brandon Phillips 30 32

But only Wright had 0.325/30/34...

Others... 20/20 ... HR/SB


Hanley Ramirez 29 51
Alex Rodriguez 54 24
Chris Young B. 32 27
Grady Sizemore 24 33
Corey Hart 24 23
B.J. Upton 24 22
Carlos Beltran 33 23
CurtGranderson 23 26
Eric Byrnes 21 50
Ian Kinsler 20 23


I think H.Ramirez, Young, Sizemore, Hart, BJ Upton, Granderson will join the 30/30 club this year.

[Mild Sauce]

I see Cecil Fielder coming out of retirement to do it.

Seriously though, Hanley Ramirez could do it, and I wouldn't say that David Wright is too much of a stretch to eventually be able to do it.

[sturg1dj]

well Hanley is close to the pace so is Sizemore but David Wright is nowhere near the pace needed.