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Honus Wagner Rules
02-26-2008, 11:08 AM
An interesting article. :think:



The Epic of Craig Biggio
Why I loved, and then grew tired of, the long-time Houston Astro.

sports nut
By Bill James
Monday, Feb. 25, 2008

Bill James is not only one of the most influential baseball thinkers of his generation, he's also one of the most influential writers. For decades, James has been challenging and reshaping the game's conventional wisdom with his uniquely brilliant and witty essays. His latest book, The Bill James Gold Mine 2008, includes hundreds of pages of analysis, scores of statistical nuggets, and 17 new essays. In this excerpt, James explains how Craig Biggio became his favorite baseball player and why he ultimately soured on the just-retired Houston Astros stalwart.

I wonder how many people even remember anymore that Craig Biggio came to the majors as a catcher? Biggio wasn't much of a catcher, honestly, but he was a major league regular catcher for three and a half years. This was ages ago. When I heard that the Astros were taking their young catcher and moving him to second base I thought, "Yeah, right; that'll work great." I would have given you 20-1 odds it would fail. I've been a baseball fan a long time. Moves like that always fail.

Biggio made it work, however, and I was thrilled to be wrong. It was such an unusual thing to see a player who could make a transition like that at the major league level, from catcher to second base. It required something that you don't often see, an exceptional level of determination, dedication and adaptability.

Gradually, over the years after that, Craig Biggio emerged as my favorite player. I had a Craig Biggio pennant on my wall. The only other one I ever had was George Brett. I was never an Astros fan; that wasn't it. It had to do with something Dan Okrent had asked me, when he was working on an article for Sports Illustrated in 1980. "Bill," he said, "you write about the player with subtle skills, the player who isn't a recognized star but who is just as valuable as the star because of his combination of skills. Who is the player that best exemplifies that other kind of star?"

I couldn't come up with anybody. I finally pointed toward Al Bumbry, who was that kind of a player in 1980, but not consistently throughout his career. I loved Craig Biggio because he was the perfect answer to that question. He was the player who wasn't a star, but who was just as valuable as the superstars because of his exceptional command of a collection of little skills—getting on base, and avoiding the double play, and stealing a base here and there, and playing defense. Here was the guy who scored 120 runs every year because he hit 45 or 50 doubles every year and walked 70 to 90 times a year and led the majors in being hit with the pitch and hardly ever grounded into a double play and somehow stole 25 to 50 bases every year although he really had very average speed.

You have to understand, when I wrote in 1998 that Craig Biggio was one of the five greatest second basemen of all time, people thought I was nuts. Very few people at that time saw him as a special player. I liked that, too—I liked people thinking I was out on a limb about something when I knew I was right. I loved doing a point-by-point summary comparing Craig Biggio to Ken Griffey Jr., and showing Biggio was actually as valuable, in his best seasons, as Griffey. Griffey at that time was generally regarded as the best player in baseball. In 1997 Griffey outhomered Biggio 56-22, in 1998 56-20. But Biggio had a higher batting average, more doubles and triples, more stolen bases with a better stolen base percentage, was hit by pitches an additional 20 times a year and grounded into fewer double plays. He had as many walks and fewer strikeouts. It was pretty obvious that, if you added together all of Biggio's advantages, Biggio was, at a minimum, on the same level.

Later on, after an injury, the Astros needed a center fielder. Craig Biggio raised his hand and said, "I can play center. We've got other guys here who can cover second; put me in center." Later he moved back to second. It's an amazing thing, absolutely amazing. Who else could cover you at three of the four up-the-middle defensive positions? Nobody.

But in the last years of his career, my affection for Biggio started to fade, I'm afraid. As he moved closer to 3,000 career hits there came a general recognition of his status as a star player, which severed the bond that I felt to him when he was deserving of recognition that he wasn't getting. Yes, he moved to center field and yes, he moved back to second base when they needed him back at second base, but in all candor, he was pretty awful in center field, and he was pretty awful defensively back at second base. I got tired of pretending not to notice.

At some point, Biggio was hanging around to get 3,000 hits. On the one hand I was happy for him that he was going to get his 3,000 hits and pleased that he had proven to everybody that he was a great player, but it's not something I really admire, hanging around to pursue personal goals. He couldn't hit a good pitcher—never could, really. His career batting average in post-season play was .234, OPS somewhere around .600. His clutch hitting record is miserable.

We have this profile in the online … Batting Performance by Quality of Opposing Pitcher. Of course, over time, almost everybody is going to hit better against weaker pitchers. I doubt that anybody was as consistent or extreme about it as Biggio was. In 2003 he hit .354 against pitchers with ERAs over 5.25 (64 for 181), but .143 against pitchers with ERAs under 3.50 (19 for 133). In 2004 he hit .382 with 10 homers in 110 at bats against pitchers with ERAs over 5.25. Every year he has had huge good pitcher/bad pitcher splits.

I'm not picking on him, I hope, but the reason that Biggio struggled in clutch situations and against good pitchers couldn't be more obvious. He was an overachiever, and he knew what he was doing. Against a weak pitcher, a pitcher not really in command of his material, Biggio could take control of the at bat and drive it toward a good conclusion. When the pitcher was not really focused, Biggio was. But when the pressure was on and there was somebody on the mound who knew what he was doing, Biggio had limited ability to step up. Maybe this was not as true in the 1990s. I hope. We'll figure the data and put it online.

I'll still say today, if there was a draft and you could look ahead and say, "OK, that guy's going to be Ken Griffey, that guy's going to be Frank Thomas, that guy's going to be Juan Gonzalez, that guy's going to be Tom Glavine, that guy's going to be Craig Biggio," just give me Biggio and I'll take my chances. Maybe that's not what the numbers say is the right answer, but Biggio was the guy who would do whatever needed to be done. Makes it a lot easier to build a team.

And then the story went on a little too long. You ever go to a movie, it' s pretty good for about an hour and a half but then the story is over but it's like the director can't find the ending so it goes on for another half-hour looking for some way to tie things together? That's kind of Biggio's career; it was over, and then it went on for quite awhile.

Old Sweater
02-26-2008, 12:11 PM
I like how James cherry picked 2 years towards the end of his career to prove his point of not being able to hit good pitchers. Typical number bender move.

I wonder what made James decide to do a slam on Biggio if he liked him so much early in his career? I sure wouldn't put out negative press about one of my favorite players.

KCGHOST
02-26-2008, 01:17 PM
You can hate James if you want but every Craig Biggio fan on the planet ought to be giving James a big "Thank You". Without James Biggio's career flies completely below the radar of the BBWAA and he would have ended up struggling to get to the HoF. Now he will be elected in short order (maybe not first ballot but within five).

As for the cherry picking, he may have done that, but recapped with an across the board statement.

One thing people keep missing in their study of James is that his work is evolving. He rarely takes a stance that he is unwilling to change if future evidence suggests otherwise.

Honus Wagner Rules
02-26-2008, 01:28 PM
You can hate James if you want but every Craig Biggio fan on the planet ought to be giving James a big "Thank You". Without James Biggio's career flies completely below the radar of the BBWAA and he would have ended up struggling to get to the HoF. Now he will be elected in short order (maybe not first ballot but within five).

As for the cherry picking, he may have done that, but recapped with an across the board statement.

One thing people keep missing in their study of James is that his work is evolving. He rarely takes a stance that he is unwilling to change if future evidence suggests otherwise.

That is one trait I really admire about Bill James. He's not afraid to admit he's wrong or change his mind on something. I find it ironic that those most critical of James are generally the most unbending and unyielding to change their views and their pet theories or to admit that they are wrong.

Honus Wagner Rules
02-26-2008, 01:30 PM
I like how James cherry picked 2 years towards the end of his career to prove his point of not being able to hit good pitchers. Typical number bender move.

I wonder what made James decide to do a slam on Biggio if he liked him so much early in his career? I sure wouldn't put out negative press about one of my favorite players.

It's probably the same reason that people who loved Willie Mays in his prime slammed him for staying in the game too long. His Mets years were probably hard to take for many life long Willie fans.

GiambiJuice
02-26-2008, 07:11 PM
You can hate James if you want but every Craig Biggio fan on the planet ought to be giving James a big "Thank You". Without James Biggio's career flies completely below the radar of the BBWAA and he would have ended up struggling to get to the HoF. Now he will be elected in short order (maybe not first ballot but within five).

So you're saying Biggio would have been the first player with 3,000 hits (besides Rose) not to make the HOF if not for Billl James???

Old Sweater
02-26-2008, 07:57 PM
You can hate James if you want but every Craig Biggio fan on the planet ought to be giving James a big "Thank You". Without James Biggio's career flies completely below the radar of the BBWAA and he would have ended up struggling to get to the HoF. Now he will be elected in short order (maybe not first ballot but within five).

As for the cherry picking, he may have done that, but recapped with an across the board statement.

One thing people keep missing in their study of James is that his work is evolving. He rarely takes a stance that he is unwilling to change if future evidence suggests otherwise.


Same question that GiambiJuice asked you:confused::shrug:

Old Sweater
02-26-2008, 08:10 PM
It's probably the same reason that people who loved Willie Mays in his prime slammed him for staying in the game too long. His Mets years were probably hard to take for many life long Willie fans.

Yeah, I happen to be one of those fans who got to follow most of Mays career.

The typical fan doesn't have the power of the press to slam a great player and if they did, many out of respect wouldn't nit pick at a few years of a overall great career.

Bill James comes off in that article to me as a phony fan that finished with a Biggio writer burn.

Westlake
02-26-2008, 08:19 PM
Yeah, he really slammed Biggio by saying he was just as good as Griffey (regarded as the best player in the gane) at their best.

He told the truth. Something even Astros fans had to deal with at the end of his career. He simply wasn't very good anymore and it, at times, was painful to watch for big Biggio fans (which basically all of my friends were).

However, I still view him as a top tier second baseman as James does. He was Houston baseball, probably moreso than Bagwell. Class act all the way.

Now i'm waiting for John/Phoenix to come in and slam Biggio and somehow make this thread about how much of a cheater/jerk/selfish/not very good player/person Biggio was and how great Alomar was.

SamtheBravesFan
02-26-2008, 08:38 PM
Now i'm waiting for John/Phoenix to come in and slam Biggio and somehow make this thread about how much of a cheater/jerk/selfish/not very good player/person Biggio was and how great Alomar was.

Whatever happened to him? :)

Old Sweater
02-26-2008, 08:45 PM
Yeah, he really slammed Biggio by saying he was just as good as Griffey (regarded as the best player in the gane) at their best.

He told the truth. Something even Astros fans had to deal with at the end of his career. He simply wasn't very good anymore and it, at times, was painful to watch for big Biggio fans (which basically all of my friends were).

However, I still view him as a top tier second baseman as James does. He was Houston baseball, probably moreso than Bagwell. Class act all the way.

Now i'm waiting for John/Phoenix to come in and slam Biggio and somehow make this thread about how much of a cheater/jerk/selfish/not very good player/person Biggio was and how great Alomar was.

Hey, it started out great and ended like Old Yeller.

skyking162
02-27-2008, 08:54 AM
That is one trait I really admire about Bill James. He's not afraid to admit he's wrong or change his mind on something. I find it ironic that those most critical of James are generally the most unbending and unyielding to change their views and their pet theories or to admit that they are wrong.

This isn't quite the same thing, but Bill James will fully admit he pays ZERO attention to other people's work in sabrmetrics. He just doesn't know anything about the research being done currently.

philkid3
02-27-2008, 09:16 AM
"He was the player who wasn't a star, but who was just as valuable as the superstars"

I don't know about not being a star. Groing up I thought Biggio was a HUGE star. When I first started becoming a baseball fan he was probably, I'd say, one of the 10 or 15 most recognizable players. At that point he was THE second baseman in the NL, and far and away the most popular in the league because, let's face it, he was more likable and friendly than Robbie Alomar.

I didn't even know who Alomar was really until about '98. I knew who Biggio was. When I would build a fantasy team on Ken Griffey Baseball, Craig Biggio was always my second baseman.

Old Sweater
02-27-2008, 10:25 AM
This just wasn't right.

In 2003 he hit .354 against pitchers with ERAs over 5.25 (64 for 181), but .143 against pitchers with ERAs under 3.50 (19 for 133). In 2004 he hit .382 with 10 homers in 110 at bats against pitchers with ERAs over 5.25. Every year he has had huge good pitcher/bad pitcher splits.


Why didn't James give a league average of how the other hitters done against the same pitchers with those ERA's. There is good reason why those ERA's are so high or low.

Westlake
02-27-2008, 11:08 AM
"He was the player who wasn't a star, but who was just as valuable as the superstars"

I don't know about not being a star. Groing up I thought Biggio was a HUGE star. When I first started becoming a baseball fan he was probably, I'd say, one of the 10 or 15 most recognizable players. At that point he was THE second baseman in the NL, and far and away the most popular in the league because, let's face it, he was more likable and friendly than Robbie Alomar.

I didn't even know who Alomar was really until about '98. I knew who Biggio was. When I would build a fantasy team on Ken Griffey Baseball, Craig Biggio was always my second baseman.

Didn't you live in Texas? Every kid in Texas thought Biggio was a star -- once you got out of the area it kind of faded though. He wasn't a nobody, but I dont think he got the cred he should have.

dl4060
02-27-2008, 11:14 AM
This just wasn't right.



Why didn't James give a league average of how the other hitters done against the same pitchers with those ERA's. There is good reason why those ERA's are so high or low.

I would like to see that too. A better indication would be how much better/worse he is than the league average against those pitchers.

philkid3
02-27-2008, 11:14 AM
Didn't you live in Texas? Every kid in Texas thought Biggio was a star -- once you got out of the area it kind of faded though. He wasn't a nobody, but I dont think he got the cred he should have.

No, I lived in Texas before I was really a baseball fan. The only players I knew then were Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Nolan Ryan, Ivan Rodriguez and Jose Canseco.

I lived in New Mexico and Washington when I started to become a baseball fan and in the time period I'm talking about.

Old Sweater
02-27-2008, 01:43 PM
Just the tie with Bagwell gave Biggio more recognition. Then all the killer B talk didn't hurt each time the Astros were on national TV.

Westlake
02-27-2008, 01:52 PM
Just the tie with Bagwell gave Biggio more recognition. Then all the killer B talk didn't hurt each time the Astros were on national TV.

That was annoying as hell. Almost as annoying as all the bee buzzing sounds they play every time he comes up to bat.

dgarza
02-27-2008, 02:20 PM
"And then the story went on a little too long. You ever go to a movie, it' s pretty good for about an hour and a half but then the story is over but it's like the director can't find the ending so it goes on for another half-hour looking for some way to tie things together? That's kind of Biggio's career; it was over, and then it went on for quite awhile."

Kinda like an article that goes on for 1 amateur paragraph too long.

Biggio will let James know whan Biggio's career is over, not the other way around. Or should we all just give up life at 35? :rolleyes:

STLCards2
02-27-2008, 04:05 PM
I would like to see that too. A better indication would be how much better/worse he is than the league average against those pitchers.

Precise numbers would be welcomed, but James did allude to the fact that Biggio was noticably worse than average. Like James or not, he is typicaly very thorough, and I doubt he would make those types of claims without solid research. It does make you wonder why he didn't include that info, however.

Honus Wagner Rules
02-27-2008, 04:23 PM
This isn't quite the same thing, but Bill James will fully admit he pays ZERO attention to other people's work in sabrmetrics. He just doesn't know anything about the research being done currently.

That seems like laziness on his part.

Honus Wagner Rules
02-27-2008, 04:26 PM
This just wasn't right.



Why didn't James give a league average of how the other hitters done against the same pitchers with those ERA's. There is good reason why those ERA's are so high or low.

Come on OS. The article wasn't meant to be an exhaustive treatise on the hitter's BA against the top pitchers vs the bottom dwelling pitchers. And I don't think it was James' main point of the article anyway.

Honus Wagner Rules
02-27-2008, 04:29 PM
"And then the story went on a little too long. You ever go to a movie, it' s pretty good for about an hour and a half but then the story is over but it's like the director can't find the ending so it goes on for another half-hour looking for some way to tie things together? That's kind of Biggio's career; it was over, and then it went on for quite awhile."

Kinda like an article that goes on for 1 amateur paragraph too long.

Biggio will let James know whan Biggio's career is over, not the other way around. Or should we all just give up life at 35? :rolleyes:

Not if you can still put up a 125 OPS+ from second base! :)

dl4060
02-27-2008, 05:53 PM
Come on OS. The article wasn't meant to be an exhaustive treatise on the hitter's BA against the top pitchers vs the bottom dwelling pitchers. And I don't think it was James' main point of the article anyway.

I know the article was not meant to be complete on this topic, but if he wants to support his claim about Biggio he really should have included just a bit more info. It would not have taken much to compare Biggio to how the rest of the league did in these situations. A very minor undertaking to say the least, which would have made the point in question, that Biggio was not a talented enough hitter to hit well against great pitchers, stronger.

Fuzzy Bear
02-27-2008, 07:49 PM
"I'm not picking on him, I hope, but the reason that Biggio struggled in clutch situations and against good pitchers couldn't be more obvious. He was an overachiever, and he knew what he was doing. Against a weak pitcher, a pitcher not really in command of his material, Biggio could take control of the at bat and drive it toward a good conclusion. When the pitcher was not really focused, Biggio was. But when the pressure was on and there was somebody on the mound who knew what he was doing, Biggio had limited ability to step up. Maybe this was not as true in the 1990s. I hope. We'll figure the data and put it online."

Bill James

It's not that Biggio isn't a HOFer; he is. It's just that Biggio isn't the 35th greatest player of all time that James said he was back in 2000 or so.

phoenixrises
03-01-2008, 12:36 AM
Some of you fellas are hilarious. When James claims Biggio as an All-time great, the man's a fountain of wisdom; when he comes to his senses, retracting some of the ridiculous claims he made at earlier times, and noticing some of the glaring flaws in Biggio's game that I noticed too, he's suddenly a fool?

James even said, if you didn't notice, that he will analyze the data further down the years with regards to his unbalanced performance against good/bad pitchers to see if the trend holds, so he is not "cherry picking" the data as one poster put it.

By the way, I've ALWAYS said this guy, Biggio, had skills that were very transparent and how he overachieved against poor pitching to accumulate much of his stats, and how it explains his poor postseason play.

cardsfanatic
03-01-2008, 07:15 PM
Nothing knew, I've said it for years. As a matter of fact, I've made several posts about Biggio on this forum stating pretty much everything James has finally "realized." Biggio is a top 10 2B of all-time, I'd guess. If I went down the list I'm sure I could get him into the top 10. However, he's not an all-time great IMO.

rich
03-01-2008, 09:28 PM
I always use a term I've come up with I call "The New York Barometer." Ask yourself, if the guy played for the NY team's of the 50's , where would he fall in baseball lore. Biggio gets no help by playing in an outpost like Houston. Really don't need to open up this pandora's box but the NY Daily News naming their All Time Yankees team by position, leaving Joe D on the bench for The Mick, has Willie Randolph as the best 2nd sacker for the Yanks. I never saw Joe Gordon play.....but check out his stats.

Wade8813
03-01-2008, 10:07 PM
I've always regarded Biggio as a star. Even as a kid who's always lived in the Seattle area, I viewed Biggio as a star. Not as big of a star as the biggest names, but still a legitimate star.