Who's a better prospect?

[NJMetfan4life]

This is only between two prospects. Please don't just vote for which team you like, and if you don't know who they are, don't guess.

Joba Chamberlain, or Fernando Martinez. I'm in an argument with my friend, a yankee fan. He says Joba throws 102mph, but what's the point , if people can hit it? What's your opinion?

[Imgran]

Fernando wins by default. While he fits the classical definition, Joba's pretty much moved past the point of prospecthood.

[ElHalo]

Um... Joba won't be a prospect much longer, as he'll likely lose rookie eligibility (well, 2009 rookie eligibility anyway) by the middle of May, probably. But for the moment, this isn't even close to an argument. At all. Joba Chamberlain is one of the three or four best prospects in all of baseball. Martinez is not. It's not even worth making an argument for.

[NJMetfan4life]

Um... Joba won't be a prospect much longer, as he'll likely lose rookie eligibility (well, 2009 rookie eligibility anyway) by the middle of May, probably. But for the moment, this isn't even close to an argument. At all. Joba Chamberlain is one of the three or four best prospects in all of baseball. Martinez is not. It's not even worth making an argument for.

Are you saying that beacuse your a Yankee fan? And Imgran, are you saying that because your a Red Sox fan?

[Westlake]

I'd rather have Joba.

"If people can hit it" -- WHO hit it? In his 112 innings of pro ball last year, he gave up 74 hits. That's like, really, really good.

While Martinez has basically proved.... well, a lot of nothing.

[SamtheBravesFan]

It's a matter of perspective. Because Chamberlain has made a significant impact in the majors, I think he has moved past prospect myself.

So Fernando Martinez is the best one.

[Erik Bedard]

Chamberlain is still technically a prospect. And as long as he is, he's in the top five. Martinez is maybe cracks the top 20.

[ElHalo]

Are you saying that beacuse your a Yankee fan? And Imgran, are you saying that because your a Red Sox fan?

Um, no. It has nothing to do with being a Yankee fan.

Look at any of these:

ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3221365) ranks Joba as the number 3 prospect in baseball (behind Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria), and Martinez at number 10.

Minor League Baseball's site (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2008/) ranks Joba fifth (Behind Bruce, Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, and Cameron Maybin) and Martinez 17th.

Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7092) has Joba at four (behind Bruce, Longoria, and Buchholz), and Martinez at... 51.

There's no even halfway legitimate argument that Martinez, at this point, is a better prospect than Joba Chamberlain. Maybe Chamberlain will break down and need TJ surgery at some point.

[digglahhh]

Chamberlain is still technically a prospect. And as long as he is, he's in the top five. Martinez is maybe cracks the top 20.

Nice avatar, EB. Album cover avatars are where it's at! :highfive:

As to the question, Joba has just accomplished so much more. I think this question can be settled by asking yourself if you'd trade Martinez for Joba. I would!

That's not to say that Martinez won't be great. It's not to say that Joba may turn out to be a flash in the pan. But, Joba is more highly valued right now - almost impossible to argue otherwise, unless you are doing what you are accusing other of and looking through blue and orange glasses.

And kill the conspiracy theory before it starts, my team affiliation is well known - my second bedroom is painted blue and orange...

[Jose Reyes]

well joba's a pitcher and martinez is an outfielder so i don't really see why you're trying to compare them. but anyway, obviously they're both great prospects. you have to remember that martinez is still only a teenager, but i can't really see how you could say martinez is better than joba considering joba has already played in the majors and has played well.

[Zagi-CRO]

Joba is better and injuries had kept Martinez inactive for much of his first full season.

[Imgran]

Are you saying that beacuse your a Yankee fan? And Imgran, are you saying that because your a Red Sox fan?

No, I'm pretty sure I'd say the same thing if Joba was a Colorado Rockie. The big difference is that I'd have to do a bit more research.

[Erik Bedard]

Nice avatar, EB. Album cover avatars are where it's at! :highfive:

As to the question, Joba has just accomplished so much more. I think this question can be settled by asking yourself if you'd trade Martinez for Joba. I would!

That's not to say that Martinez won't be great. It's not to say that Joba may turn out to be a flash in the pan. But, Joba is more highly valued right now - almost impossible to argue otherwise, unless you are doing what you are accusing other of and looking through blue and orange glasses.

And kill the conspiracy theory before it starts, my team affiliation is well known - my second bedroom is painted blue and orange...

I've been doing it for quite a while. And I'm sure everyone can name this one, though not my previous one.

I actually don't think Martinez will end up being that great. He'll probably make it to the bigs, but he won't be a multi-time All-Star. If he was a Rangers prospect, I doubt he'd be this highly rated. Joba, on the other hand, would be top ten anywhere, albeit probably not top five. The East Coast bias has to play into that a bit.

[metfan13]

I've been doing it for quite a while. And I'm sure everyone can name this one, though not my previous one.

I actually don't think Martinez will end up being that great. He'll probably make it to the bigs, but he won't be a multi-time All-Star. If he was a Rangers prospect, I doubt he'd be this highly rated. Joba, on the other hand, would be top ten anywhere, albeit probably not top five. The East Coast bias has to play into that a bit.

What makes you think Martinez won't be that great? Not looking to argue, just curious about the thought process. While losing half his season to injury he did post a .713 OPS in AA as an 18 year old. Injury kept him from getting more than 230 AB and maybe really settling in.

Anything can happen, but he's still so young that I'm surprised someone can so easily write him off.

[bailiff]

Joba gets my vote. If for nothing else, he has a cool name.

[Imgran]

With a bit of luck Joba might even be better than Chad Billingsley.

Who?

Exactly -- great point about the east coast bias.

[digglahhh]

With a bit of luck Joba might even be better than Chad Billingsley.

Who?

Exactly -- great point about the east coast bias.

I'm not knocking Billingsley, but I find it interesting that PECOTA has him pegged for a 59% chance of collapse, and only a 2% chance of breakout (a decline or improvement of 20% relative to last season respectively).

Again, Billingsley is a young pitcher who forecasts to have an extremely bright future, I was just kinda shocked to read that and I felt like I'd throw it out there.

[TonyStarks]

Joba's already made it tot he bigs and had an immediate impact, while Fernando hasn't done so yet and is pretty far away.

There have been plenty of prospects who were on the road to stardom and something derailed them. See Josh Hamilton, Brien Taylor, Steve Karsay, Todd Van Poppel, Alex Ochoa, Andy Marte, Joel Guzman and many many others.

[Westlake]

Anything can happen, but he's still so young that I'm surprised someone can so easily write him off.

At the same time, i'm surprised that most Mets fans are acting like he's GOING to be an all-star (well, i'm not really surprised, just for the sake of my point). The chances of him not even making the major leagues is higher than of him becoming a star player.

[metfan13]

At the same time, i'm surprised that most Mets fans are acting like he's GOING to be an all-star (well, i'm not really surprised, just for the sake of my point). The chances of him not even making the major leagues is higher than of him becoming a star player.

True. But I can expect fans of a team to overrate their prospects. I'm sure it happens on every teams board that we have here. What I was curious was why the expectation that he'll fail? Other than that you do better than break even on guessing that every minor leaguer will fail. What about Martinez says he won't make it?

[NJMetfan4life]

you have to remember that martinez is still only a teenager,

A teenager in AA.

[Imgran]

A teenager in AA.

A teenager putting up mediocre numbers in AA is two steps forward, one step back.

Youth not = high upside all by itself.

[NJMetfan4life]

A teenager putting up mediocre numbers in AA is two steps forward, one step back.

That's still one step.

[Imgran]

But only one. It doesn't look like FMart is earning his promotions for anything other than being FMart. That's a state of affairs that can seriously backfire.

[Westlake]

True. But I can expect fans of a team to overrate their prospects. I'm sure it happens on every teams board that we have here. What I was curious was why the expectation that he'll fail? Other than that you do better than break even on guessing that every minor leaguer will fail. What about Martinez says he won't make it?

His stats so far, for one. Those have to be taken at face value because of his age/skills but I can't imagine putting too much stock in a guy being an all-star until he actually performs well in the minors. Most scouts say he will, but comparing him to someone who has (albeit in a short sample size) already dominated major leaguers is going to make him look bad. Martinez should not be compared to a guy in the Top 5 of every prospect list, because Martinez is not at that level yet.

[metfan13]

His stats so far, for one. Those have to be taken at face value because of his age/skills but I can't imagine putting too much stock in a guy being an all-star until he actually performs well in the minors. Most scouts say he will, but comparing him to someone who has (albeit in a short sample size) already dominated major leaguers is going to make him look bad. Martinez should not be compared to a guy in the Top 5 of every prospect list, because Martinez is not at that level yet.

Iwasn't comparing him. I was asking why the poster was writing him off. Saying Joba is a better prospect is a legit opinion if based just on the fact that he's a major leaguer with success behind him. But to say Martinez won't be, just because, is not legit. Especially if, as you noted, scouts say that he will succeed. Also remember his season was cut short by injury last year. His numbers, which are still pretty good at AA for a high school age kid, did not have the benefit of an extra couple hundred ABs of experience. If you want to say he won't succeed in the majors because of an injury at 18, well go ahead.

[Erik Bedard]

I think that he has the mark of one whose injuries might prevent him from attaining his full potential. Entirely my opinion.

[Westlake]

Iwasn't comparing him. I was asking why the poster was writing him off.

I didn't say you were. Whoever made this thread was. Stop being so defensive.

"But to say Martinez won't be, just because, is not legit."

-- But saying he will be is legit? Where's the sense behind that?

"you noted, scouts say that he will succeed."

-- Scouts sign thousands of players because they think they will succeed. Just because a guy has good tools, doesn't mean they're absolutely going to translate to success.

"His numbers, which are still pretty good at AA for a high school age kid, did not have the benefit of an extra couple hundred ABs of experience."

His numbers were not good, any way you look at it. Bad OBP, bad slugging. His OPS was .713 in AA! That's not even average. Maybe we are looking at different stats.

"If you want to say he won't succeed in the majors because of an injury at 18, well go ahead"

Where did I say that? He might succeed, who knows? I'm just trying to convey the point that he is probably not the all-star caliber player that every Mets fan thinks he is already. The chances of a prospect panning out to that level is small. I'm also just showing that there are reasons for people thinking that he won't be this amazing player. He hasn't proven anything. If you want people to look at a .713 OPS and assume "ALL-STAR!" -- you're going to be very disappointed.

He's a fine player and all, but being a top 20 prospect does not guarantee success at the major league level in any way, shape, or form.

[Imgran]

When it comes right down to it, Jeff Corsaletti is probably a better prospect than Fernando Martinez is right now, and that won't change while the Mets keep railroading him through the minors and stunting his development by means of inadequate time at levels he would have benefitted from mastering.

Contrariwise, when Michael Bowden earns a promotion it's because he showed enough in the previous level to suggest mastery even though he's only a year or so older then FMart and at the same level. Nevermind Joba, Bowden is probably a better prospect than FMart for that reason if no other.

I would also take any of Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, and Oscar Tejeda over Fernando Martinez straight up. And frankly the only one that's even debatable is Reddick

[Mattingly]

It's a matter of perspective. Because Chamberlain has made a significant impact in the majors, I think he has moved past prospect myself.

So Fernando Martinez is the best one.
I'm curious, what's your criteria for moving beyond the "prospect" stage? Everyone's sliding scale moves differently, so please share yours with us.

Same for others here.

[digglahhh]

Not directed to any specific poster:

When Jay-Z bends over backwards to hype a Memphis Bleek album at least he has a financial stake in the calculated destruction of integrity and outing of blatant bias...

Why must a team's fans shill bid the talent of the team's prospects? What does it do for you, materially, to convince yourself on the basis of nothing substantial that FMart is a future stud?

If you were set up on a blind date, would set yourself up with the expectation that the woman will look like Jessica Alba (or whoever the flavor of the month is now)?

We are not expert talent evaluators and even to the extent to which we can judge we are too far removed to make such determinations. So, what do we have to go on? Scouting reports and history. Most highly touted prospects never approach dominating the majors for even a short amount of time. Joba absolutely dominated the league in his cameo; he was better than Rivera during his tenure! It flies in the face of history to assume that Martinez can do anything similar, and the types of arguments that have the potential to override a historical analysis we are not qualified/in the position to give.

To be frank, a bunch of guys on a message board forecasting the future of a teenager in the mid-minors is a complete waste of time. It is remotely analogous to asking a first grade class to predict what China's impact on the international economy will be like in ten years.

To even think you know what FMart's pro career will look like is simple hubris.

[NYMets523]

But only one. It doesn't look like FMart is earning his promotions for anything other than being FMart. That's a state of affairs that can seriously backfire.

F Mart is getting a promotion because the Mets are stupid and rush their prospects (Mike Pelfrey, Joe Smith, and Carlos Gomez).

[MyDogSparty]

This is only between two prospects. Please don't just vote for which team you like, and if you don't know who they are, don't guess.

Joba Chamberlain, or Fernando Martinez. I'm in an argument with my friend, a yankee fan. He says Joba throws 102mph, but what's the point , if people can hit it? What's your opinion?

As a Tiger fan I'd take Joba in a heartbeat over Fernando because Joba is more of a proven commodity. Fernando is a huge work in progress right now. They say he's got skills and he's young but his numbers, at ANY level, haven't proven enough if anything at this point.

[metfan13]

I didn't say you were. Whoever made this thread was. Stop being so defensive.

"But to say Martinez won't be, just because, is not legit."

-- But saying he will be is legit? Where's the sense behind that?

"you noted, scouts say that he will succeed."

-- Scouts sign thousands of players because they think they will succeed. Just because a guy has good tools, doesn't mean they're absolutely going to translate to success.

"His numbers, which are still pretty good at AA for a high school age kid, did not have the benefit of an extra couple hundred ABs of experience."

His numbers were not good, any way you look at it. Bad OBP, bad slugging. His OPS was .713 in AA! That's not even average. Maybe we are looking at different stats.

"If you want to say he won't succeed in the majors because of an injury at 18, well go ahead"

Where did I say that? He might succeed, who knows? I'm just trying to convey the point that he is probably not the all-star caliber player that every Mets fan thinks he is already. The chances of a prospect panning out to that level is small. I'm also just showing that there are reasons for people thinking that he won't be this amazing player. He hasn't proven anything. If you want people to look at a .713 OPS and assume "ALL-STAR!" -- you're going to be very disappointed.

He's a fine player and all, but being a top 20 prospect does not guarantee success at the major league level in any way, shape, or form.

Stop being so defensive

[metfan13]

Not directed to any specific poster:

When Jay-Z bends over backwards to hype a Memphis Bleek album at least he has a financial stake in the calculated destruction of integrity and outing of blatant bias...

Why must a team's fans shill bid the talent of the team's prospects? What does it do for you, materially, to convince yourself on the basis of nothing substantial that FMart is a future stud?

If you were set up on a blind date, would set yourself up with the expectation that the woman will look like Jessica Alba (or whoever the flavor of the month is now)?

We are not expert talent evaluators and even to the extent to which we can judge we are too far removed to make such determinations. So, what do we have to go on? Scouting reports and history. Most highly touted prospects never approach dominating the majors for even a short amount of time. Joba absolutely dominated the league in his cameo; he was better than Rivera during his tenure! It flies in the face of history to assume that Martinez can do anything similar, and the types of arguments that have the potential to override a historical analysis we are not qualified/in the position to give.

To be frank, a bunch of guys on a message board forecasting the future of a teenager in the mid-minors is a complete waste of time. It is remotely analogous to asking a first grade class to predict what China's impact on the international economy will be like in ten years.

To even think you know what FMart's pro career will look like is simple hubris.

A bunch of guys on a message board discussing anything is pretty useless. Time to shut the place down. But since that's not likely, then offhand claims that he'll not make it are as ill advised as those of fans who think he has a shot.

[SamtheBravesFan]

I'm curious, what's your criteria for moving beyond the "prospect" stage? Everyone's sliding scale moves differently, so please share yours with us.

Same for others here.

Well, I don't have a set criteria, but I think that Chamberlain has moved past prospectdom because he pitched 24 innings and allowed just two runs total in the 2007 regular season. People know what he can do now at his best in the majors. Because of that, he's not a prospect anymore.