Electronic Prediction 2008

[Zagi-CRO]

I made some kind of electronic prediction win vs. loss for 2008 based on 2007. players stats. A methodology is in fact very simple counting with three groups of players- starters, batters and relievers.
Each of them have some kind of rating /grade, evaluation/ from 0 - 5 /the worst to the best/

Starters - the best 1-6 starters of each team
Batters - the best 1-10
Relievers- the best 1-6

And my computer made out this prediction:


ALC Detroit Tigers 90 72
ALC Cleveland Indians 88 74
ALC Chicago White Sox 80 82
ALC Kansas City Royals 78 84
ALC Minnesota Twins 70 92

ALE Boston Red Sox 93 69
ALE New York Yankees 88 74
ALE Toronto Blue Jays 86 76
ALE Tampa Bay Devil Rays 77 85
ALE Baltimore Orioles 71 91

ALW Los Angeles Angels 92 70
ALW Seattle Mariners 87 75
ALW Oakland Athletics 68 94
ALW Texas Rangers 67 95

NLC Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
NLC Chicago Cubs 86 76
NLC Houston Astros 82 80
NLC Cincinnati Reds 76 86
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 74 88
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 71 91

NLE New York Mets 95 67
NLE Philadelphia Phillies 87 75
NLE Atlanta Braves 80 82
NLE Washington Nationals 72 90
NLE Florida Marlins 69 93

NLW Arizona Diamondbacks 89 73
NLW Los Angeles Dodgers 87 75
NLW San Diego Padres 83 79
NLW Colorado Rockies 82 80
NLW San Francisco Giants 76 86


Seems the computer knows his job well!?

[BoofBonser26]

We'll never heard the end of Joe Morgan after this.

[Zagi-CRO]

We'll never heard the end of Joe Morgan after this.

" I'm no Joe Morgan, but I'm pretty good for ....” :cap:

[otis89]

Did your computer say who wins the tiebreaker between the Cubs and the Brewers? :p

[NYMets523]

Too many ties. I think the Twins will do better than the Royals, definitely better than the White Sox.

[Old Sweater]

Did you figure in any team defense, Zagi?

[SamtheBravesFan]

I seriously doubt that the Braves are going to lose 4 more games than last season too.

[NYMets523]

Considering the Braves have lost Renteria and Jones (despite his awful season is still better than Kotsay), it's not a stretch.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Considering the Braves have lost Renteria and Jones (despite his awful season is still better than Kotsay), it's not a stretch.

Their main problem was the back end of the rotation. The only way that I'll believe the prediction is plauisble is if it implodes again. They're not going to have the Fourth and Fifth Starter Shuffle like they did last season.

[NYMets523]

Neither of those rotation spots looks better than last year.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Neither of those rotation spots looks better than last year.

Says you, and I mean that in the nicest way possible. Glavine will probably approximate what James did last season, and that will be fine. Bump James down to 4th in the rotation and even if he is as bad as he was last year, it's still an improvement on that spot. Then there are many more candidates to fill the fifth spot, now that the main culpirts of the back of the rotation stinking so bad are gone (Redman, Davies, Cormier) or not likely to crack the rotation at all (Carlyle). I don't count Reyes, because I think he has room for improvement.

[NYMets523]

Glavine will probably approximate what James did last season, and that will be fine.

That's a generous prediction considering Glavine was worse. He's also 42 and unlikely to do much better.

[SamtheBravesFan]

That's a generous prediction considering Glavine was worse. He's also 42 and unlikely to do much better.

Then you don't realize how bad Chuck James was last season. Their 2007 seasons were actually similar if you look at them: James just gave up a lot more fly balls, and thus, a few more homers. I'm not looking for Glavine to do better than what he did, just be average. James has room to improve, and if he does and if the fifth starters are average, that's just cake. That is why I say that the rotation will improve overall.

[skyking162]

It would be nice to know how you ranked each team's lineup, starters, and relievers. Once you have those rankings, how did you compute an expected record?

[NYMets523]

Then you don't realize how bad Chuck James was last season. Their 2007 seasons were actually similar if you look at them: James just gave up a lot more fly balls, and thus, a few more homers. I'm not looking for Glavine to do better than what he did, just be average. James has room to improve, and if he does and if the fifth starters are average, that's just cake. That is why I say that the rotation will improve overall.

I was looking at their stats when I posed that. Other than IP and HR allowed, Glavine was worse.

[SamtheBravesFan]

I was looking at their stats when I posed that. Other than IP and HR allowed, Glavine was worse.

James is worse than he appears, just as I think Glavine is a little better than he appears.

[Old Sweater]

James is worse than he appears, just as I think Glavine is a little better than he appears.



Nice reply! I must remember that one.

[NYMets523]

James is worse than he appears, just as I think Glavine is a little better than he appears.

Let's just agree that they both suck.

[bluezebra]

I made some kind of electronic prediction win vs. loss for 2008 based on 2007. players stats. A methodology is in fact very simple counting with three groups of players- starters, batters and relievers.
Each of them have some kind of rating /grade, evaluation/ from 0 - 5 /the worst to the best/

Starters - the best 1-6 starters of each team
Batters - the best 1-10
Relievers- the best 1-6

And my computer made out this prediction:


ALC Detroit Tigers 90 72
ALC Cleveland Indians 88 74
ALC Chicago White Sox 80 82
ALC Kansas City Royals 78 84
ALC Minnesota Twins 70 92

ALE Boston Red Sox 93 69
ALE New York Yankees 88 74
ALE Toronto Blue Jays 86 76
ALE Tampa Bay Devil Rays 77 85
ALE Baltimore Orioles 71 91

ALW Los Angeles Angels 92 70
ALW Seattle Mariners 87 75
ALW Oakland Athletics 68 94
ALW Texas Rangers 67 95

NLC Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
NLC Chicago Cubs 86 76
NLC Houston Astros 82 80
NLC Cincinnati Reds 76 86
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 74 88
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 71 91

NLE New York Mets 95 67
NLE Philadelphia Phillies 87 75
NLE Atlanta Braves 80 82
NLE Washington Nationals 72 90
NLE Florida Marlins 69 93

NLW Arizona Diamondbacks 89 73
NLW Los Angeles Dodgers 87 75
NLW San Diego Padres 83 79
NLW Colorado Rockies 82 80
NLW San Francisco Giants 76 86


Seems the computer knows his job well!?

Very nice. But they still play the games on the field, and not on a computer. And a computer cannot predict injuries and/or slumps. Or trades.

Bob

[SamtheBravesFan]

Nice reply! I must remember that one.

Are you being sarcastic? :confused:

[SamtheBravesFan]

Let's just agree that they both suck.

I will not. "Suck" to me is Kyle Davies (7-15 with 6.09 ERA in 136 innings). Glavine is "average" or "below average". There are uses for 4.00-5.00 ERA pitchers.

[BoofBonser26]

Very nice. But they still play the games on the field, and not on a computer. And a computer cannot predict injuries and/or slumps. Or trades.

Bob
Oh boy. :hp

[Zagi-CRO]

Did your computer say who wins the tiebreaker between the Cubs and the Brewers? :p

Yes! This is the final result:

Milwaukee Brewers 86.3 75.7 (rounded 86-76)
Chicago Cubs 85.6 76.4 (rounded 86-76)

So, the Brewers will win the tiebreaker!

[Zagi-CRO]

Too many ties. I think the Twins will do better than the Royals, definitely better than the White Sox.

Ok, dont underestimated the Royals.
My analitical numbers for both:



SP Lineup Bullpen
Royals - 2.32 2.74 2.79
Twins - 1.76 2.74 2.59


So, the Royals have better SP and bullpen counting with 2008 roster.

[Zagi-CRO]

Did you figure in any team defense, Zagi?

Ok. This is the stats for the starters: W, K, L, ERA, WHIP, IP For the batters: RBI, R, 1B, BB, SB, 2B, 3B, HR, AVG
For the relievers: SV, W, SO, WHIP, ERA, IP

All with different weights.

[Old Sweater]

Are you being sarcastic? :confused:


No Sam, I thought it was a great reply pertaining to 2 pitchers stats.

James is worse than he appears, just as I think Glavine is a little better than he appears.


Good reply when stats show near the same.

[Old Sweater]

Ok. This is the stats for the starters: W, K, L, ERA, WHIP, IP For the batters: RBI, R, 1B, BB, SB, 2B, 3B, HR, AVG
For the relievers: SV, W, SO, WHIP, ERA, IP

All with different weights.


That has the pitching covered but what about team fielding defense? Fielding defense adds to a teams value, not as much as pitching but the Rockies wouldn't have made the playoffs if not leading the league and setting a new fielding% record for MLB.

I'd like to see all the posters from the SABR section make their predictions for 2008 and see if the numbers are as good for predicting something as they are for something that has already been done which is based on assumption in some of the SABR stats.

[Zagi-CRO]

It would be nice to know how you ranked each team's lineup, starters, and relievers. Once you have those rankings, how did you compute an expected record?

Ok, it's a main problem.
When I have rankings I compute like this:


New York Mets 4.22
Boston Red Sox 4.15
Los Angeles Angels 4.11
Detroit Tigers 3.99
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.96
Cleveland Indians 3.92
New York Yankees 3.90
Seattle Mariners 3.88
Los Angeles Dodgers 3.88
Philadelphia Phillies 3.85
Milwaukee Brewers 3.84
Toronto Blue Jays 3.80
Chicago Cubs 3.80
San Diego Padres 3.69
Houston Astros 3.64
Colorado Rockies 3.62
Chicago White Sox 3.56
Atlanta Braves 3.56
Kansas City Royals 3.46
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3.41
San Francisco Giants 3.39
Cincinnati Reds 3.36
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.30
Washington Nationals 3.19
St. Louis Cardinals 3.16
Baltimore Orioles 3.14
Minnesota Twins 3.11
Florida Marlins 3.08
Oakland Athletics 3.02
Texas Rangers 2.98
Total - 107.97


See, the Mets have the best medium value - 4.22.
I computed the medium value for all of them - 107.97/30= 3.60

For ex. NY Mets -
Delta= (4.22-3.60)/3.60= +0.172
Predicted wins= 81*(1+DELTA) = 81*(1+0.172)= 81*1.172 = 94.92 = 95 wins and 162-95= 67 losses

For ex. Texas -
Delta=(2.98-3.60)/3.60 = -0.173
Predicted wins= 81*(1+DELTA)= 81*(1-0.173)= 81*0.827= 66.99= 67 wins
or 67-95
....
Is it OK?

[Zagi-CRO]

Very nice. But they still play the games on the field, and not on a computer. And a computer cannot predict injuries and/or slumps. Or trades.

Bob

Ha,ha... I'm not Nostradamus!! Zebra, I said it's computer's prediction!

[Zagi-CRO]

That has the pitching covered but what about team fielding defense? Fielding defense adds to a teams value, not as much as pitching but the Rockies wouldn't have made the playoffs if not leading the league and setting a new fielding% record for MLB.

I'd like to see all the posters from the SABR section make their predictions for 2008 and see if the numbers are as good for predicting something as they are for something that has already been done which is based on assumption in some of the SABR stats.

I agree. It's my mathematical model, only. And we have much room to improve this math. I'll like to see others predictions... also.

[NYMets523]

I will not. "Suck" to me is Kyle Davies (7-15 with 6.09 ERA in 136 innings). Glavine is "average" or "below average". There are uses for 4.00-5.00 ERA pitchers.

You will when the season starts. Especially by August when Glavine has nothing left and is throwing BP.

[SamtheBravesFan]

You will when the season starts. Especially by August when Glavine has nothing left and is throwing BP.

Whatever, man. I've already been through that act in 2002. I won't do it again, because I know what I'm getting now.

[Zagi-CRO]

After some trades, standing is little bit different:


ALC Detroit Tigers 89 73
ALC Cleveland Indians 88 74
ALC Chicago White Sox 80 82
ALC Kansas City Royals 78 84
ALC Minnesota Twins 75 87

ALE Boston Red Sox 93 69
ALE New York Yankees 87 75
ALE Toronto Blue Jays 85 77
ALE Tampa Bay Devil Rays 77 85
ALE Baltimore Orioles 71 91

ALW Los Angeles Angels 92 70
ALW Seattle Mariners 87 75
ALW Oakland Athletics 68 94
ALW Texas Rangers 67 95

NLC Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
NLC Chicago Cubs 85 77
NLC Houston Astros 83 79
NLC Cincinnati Reds 78 84
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 71 91
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 71 91

NLE New York Mets 94 68
NLE Philadelphia Phillies 86 76
NLE Atlanta Braves 80 82
NLE Washington Nationals 72 90
NLE Florida Marlins 70 92

NLW Arizona Diamondbacks 89 73
NLW Los Angeles Dodgers 87 75
NLW San Diego Padres 83 79
NLW Colorado Rockies 80 82
NLW San Francisco Giants 76 86

[SamtheBravesFan]

*shakes head* I still disagree with the Braves' record.

[comiskey00]

I'm curious to see how accurate this method really is now. Zagi-CRO, is it possible for you to use the same method by plugging in 2006 stats? I want to see where your standings come out compared to how they actually came out for 2007. If it's too much work, don't worry about it.

[Zagi-CRO]

I'm curious to see how accurate this method really is now. Zagi-CRO, is it possible for you to use the same method by plugging in 2006 stats? I want to see where your standings come out compared to how they actually came out for 2007. If it's too much work, don't worry about it.

It's possible, of course. It's not too much work, about 1-2 days. I'll do it.

[Zagi-CRO]

*shakes head* I still disagree with the Braves' record.

I agree, but... my computer thinks they have very bad lineup.

Starters -- Atlanta's starters have 7th ranking.

1.New York Mets 3.38
2.Los Angeles Angels 3.25
3.Arizona Diamondbacks 3.25
4.Boston Red Sox 3.22
5.Seattle Mariners 3.22
6.Chicago Cubs 3.21
7.Atlanta Braves 3.01


Batters - the Braves has 25th ranking!
.....

25.Atlanta Braves 2.57
26.Texas Rangers 2.57
27.Chicago Cubs 2.49
28.Oakland Athletics 2.48
29.Washington Nationals 2.37
30.St. Louis Cardinals 2.37


And the Cubs has a very inconsistent lineup... what can do Fontenot, Murton, Fukudome, Soto, Pie, Ward ??

[SamtheBravesFan]

What kind of data are you putting into this thing? The Braves' offense was basically third in the National League last year. Only two significant changes were made to that offense (Yunel Escobar for Edgar Renteria and Mark Kotsay for Andruw Jones). Even if the offense performs worse, how is it so bad that they're they going to go from third to thirteenth?

And I think the Cubs offense is a LOT better than what little credit you give them.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Zagi, the Braves are getting a very raw deal here and I want to know why, because I think there's a serious flaw in your method.

EDIT: Here is why I think so. You say that the Braves will have the 13th best offense in the National League according to your system.

Over the last five seasons, here are the 13th-ranked offenses in the NL according to runs per game.

2007: Houston - 4.46 R/G
2006: Milwaukee - 4.51 R/G
2005: San Diego - 4.22 R/G
2004: Pittsburgh - 4.22 R/G
2003: Cincinnati - 4.28 R/G

The Braves scored 5.00 R/G last season. Do you seriously mean to tell me that the Braves are going to lose a half a run a game due to Yunel Escobar and the jumble that is center field? I find that extremely hard to believe. They haven't scored that few runs per game since 2002 (4.40).

[Zagi-CRO]

What kind of data are you putting into this thing? The Braves' offense was basically third in the National League last year. Only two significant changes were made to that offense (Yunel Escobar for Edgar Renteria and Mark Kotsay for Andruw Jones). Even if the offense performs worse, how is it so bad that they're they going to go from third to thirteenth?

And I think the Cubs offense is a LOT better than what little credit you give them.

What kind of data for the batters? ---> RBI, R, 1B, BB, SB, 2B, 3B, HR, AVG
/like Fantasy categories/ and each of them with various weights
for ex.
weight=1 for RBI
weight=4 for HR etc.

Atlanta - 2008' lineup - marks from 1 to 5 - Ch.Jones is the best etc...

Chipper Jones 4.34
Mark Teixeira 3.86
Jeff Francoeur 3.74
Kelly Johnson 3.51
Matt Diaz 2.56
Yunel Escobar 2.37
Scott Thorman 1.72
Omar Infante 1.40
Mark Kotsay 1.27
Julio Franco 0.99

The Braves average is 2.57 because Franco, Kotsay and Infante have low marks, even Thorman.
The Braves lost Renteria (3.39) and And.Jones (3.36). They have a very good marks. Is anybody missing in Atlanta's lineup now?

The Mets

Mets 2008 lineup:

David Wright 4.86
Jose Reyes 4.64
Carlos Beltran 4.16
Carlos Delgado 3.27
Luis Castillo 3.15
Ryan Church 2.98
Shawn Green 2.80
Moises Alou 2.64
Brian Schneider 2.21
Jeff Conine 1.79

The Mets average is 3.25!!
See, how huge difference is!? The 10th Jeff Conine has better mark then 7th Thorman.

The Cubs


Alfonso Soriano 3.94
Derrek Lee 3.92
Aramis Ramirez 3.61
Mark DeRosa 3.08
Ryan Theriot 3.05
Matt Murton 1.83
Mike Fontenot 1.81
Daryle Ward 1.55
Geovany Soto 1.42
Felix Pie 1.35

The Cubs's average is 2.55. They have 5 excellent batters and 5 mediocre or unproved batters /Soto, Pie/.

We could take a look on the best 2008 offense team
The Tigers

Magglio Ordonez 4.86
Curtis Granderson 4.38
Miguel Cabrera 4.36
Carlos Guillen 3.89
Gary Sheffield 3.73
Placido Polanco 3.68
Edgar Renteria 3.39
Brandon Inge 2.83
Jacque Jones 2.71
Ivan Rodriguez 2.65

The Tigers average is 3.65!

See, 10.Rodriguez 2.65 vs. 5.Diaz 2.56 ... numbers dont lie.

Sam, another thing is important, for whole prediction. The Braves has bad bullpen, I think... who is going to be closer?? Soriano, Moylan ??
With Renteria and And.Jones Atlanta had 84-78, without them they could be 80-82. It's so realistic.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Thank you. I found one major flaw in your Braves rankings:

3B Chipper Jones 4.34
1B Mark Teixeira 3.86
RF Jeff Francoeur 3.74
2B Kelly Johnson 3.51
LF Matt Diaz 2.56
SS Yunel Escobar 2.37
BN Scott Thorman 1.72
BN Omar Infante 1.40
CF Mark Kotsay 1.27 <- Kotsay will do better than Scott Thorman. He was injuried last season so his stats look worse.
Julio Franco 0.99<- Julio Franco? I don't think he's going to be part of the Braves in 2008, or any baseball team for that matter.

No Brian McCann. You completely forgot the Braves' starting catcher. Replacing Franco with him should make the Braves break even in the standings and I'll let the others pass, but personally, I wonder if Scott Thorman is going to be out of the club in spring. I think that may affect your ranking, too.

As for the bullpen, it's more stable and better than you think it is.

Rafael Soriano is going to be the closer. Moylan is going to be the setup man. It's that simple. Soriano held opponents to a .181 batting average in 72 innings pitched last season. Most of the season, he was only a setup man because of Bob Wickman and Mike Gonzalez. But after Gonzalez had surgery and Wickman was released, Soriano became the closer. He went through a few rough patches, sure, but he didn't give up more than 2 runs, for two months at the end of the year. Soriano is stable and will be fine as a full-time closer.

I hardly think the rest of the bullpen will be worse than last season. Ohman's problems were all at Wrigley Field. Jeff Bennett is a capable spot starter and reliever. Manny Acosta did well coming in due to injuries. Tyler Yates is better than most think he is; I think his problems stem from being very overworked. Mike Gonzalez is unpredictable, I agree, but the best-case scenario is that his coming back acts like a "mid-season trade".

You really need to rank Kosuke Fukudome for the Cubs. Ranking unproven rookies is fine. The way you're doing it, at least you're consistent. However, obvious flaws I see are either completely forgetting about people or not bothering to rank some. I say that last thing because it's clear to me that you didn't bother to rank Fukudome. You should at least attempt it. This skews your rankings, however slightly.

[Imgran]

Uhh.. Braves are a National League team. There are not 9 batters in the lineup and the pitcher does hit. I suspect that's a bit of a snag in your numbers.

[holyroman]

What kind of data for the batters? ---> RBI, R, 1B, BB, SB, 2B, 3B, HR, AVG
/like Fantasy categories/ and each of them with various weights
for ex.
weight=1 for RBI
weight=4 for HR etc.

Atlanta - 2008' lineup - marks from 1 to 5 - Ch.Jones is the best etc...

Chipper Jones 4.34
Mark Teixeira 3.86
Jeff Francoeur 3.74
Kelly Johnson 3.51
Matt Diaz 2.56
Yunel Escobar 2.37
Scott Thorman 1.72
Omar Infante 1.40
Mark Kotsay 1.27
Julio Franco 0.99

The Braves average is 2.57 because Franco, Kotsay and Infante have low marks, even Thorman.
The Braves lost Renteria (3.39) and And.Jones (3.36). They have a very good marks. Is anybody missing in Atlanta's lineup now?

The Mets

Mets 2008 lineup:

David Wright 4.86
Jose Reyes 4.64
Carlos Beltran 4.16
Carlos Delgado 3.27
Luis Castillo 3.15
Ryan Church 2.98
Shawn Green 2.80
Moises Alou 2.64
Brian Schneider 2.21
Jeff Conine 1.79

The Mets average is 3.25!!
See, how huge difference is!? The 10th Jeff Conine has better mark then 7th Thorman.

The Cubs


Alfonso Soriano 3.94
Derrek Lee 3.92
Aramis Ramirez 3.61
Mark DeRosa 3.08
Ryan Theriot 3.05
Matt Murton 1.83
Mike Fontenot 1.81
Daryle Ward 1.55
Geovany Soto 1.42
Felix Pie 1.35

The Cubs's average is 2.55. They have 5 excellent batters and 5 mediocre or unproved batters /Soto, Pie/.

We could take a look on the best 2008 offense team
The Tigers

Magglio Ordonez 4.86
Curtis Granderson 4.38
Miguel Cabrera 4.36
Carlos Guillen 3.89
Gary Sheffield 3.73
Placido Polanco 3.68
Edgar Renteria 3.39
Brandon Inge 2.83
Jacque Jones 2.71
Ivan Rodriguez 2.65

The Tigers average is 3.65!

See, 10.Rodriguez 2.65 vs. 5.Diaz 2.56 ... numbers dont lie.

Sam, another thing is important, for whole prediction. The Braves has bad bullpen, I think... who is going to be closer?? Soriano, Moylan ??
With Renteria and And.Jones Atlanta had 84-78, without them they could be 80-82. It's so realistic.

zagi-cro can I see your rankings for the Astros offense, thanks

[SamtheBravesFan]

Uhh.. Braves are a National League team. There are not 9 batters in the lineup and the pitcher does hit. I suspect that's a bit of a snag in your numbers.

Not to mention the fact that he forgot McCann and included Franco. That probably made the Braves project to finish below .500. Zagi's formula is a good start, but he needs to work on the numbers that he puts into it. That is my main criticism of them.

[Tacosaregood/metsguy234]

What kind of data for the batters? ---> RBI, R, 1B, BB, SB, 2B, 3B, HR, AVG
/like Fantasy categories/ and each of them with various weights
for ex.
weight=1 for RBI
weight=4 for HR etc.

Atlanta - 2008' lineup - marks from 1 to 5 - Ch.Jones is the best etc...

Chipper Jones 4.34
Mark Teixeira 3.86
Jeff Francoeur 3.74
Kelly Johnson 3.51
Matt Diaz 2.56
Yunel Escobar 2.37
Scott Thorman 1.72
Omar Infante 1.40
Mark Kotsay 1.27
Julio Franco 0.99

The Braves average is 2.57 because Franco, Kotsay and Infante have low marks, even Thorman.
The Braves lost Renteria (3.39) and And.Jones (3.36). They have a very good marks. Is anybody missing in Atlanta's lineup now?

The Mets

Mets 2008 lineup:

David Wright 4.86
Jose Reyes 4.64
Carlos Beltran 4.16
Carlos Delgado 3.27
Luis Castillo 3.15
Ryan Church 2.98
Shawn Green 2.80
Moises Alou 2.64
Brian Schneider 2.21
Jeff Conine 1.79

The Mets average is 3.25!!
See, how huge difference is!? The 10th Jeff Conine has better mark then 7th Thorman.

The Cubs


Alfonso Soriano 3.94
Derrek Lee 3.92
Aramis Ramirez 3.61
Mark DeRosa 3.08
Ryan Theriot 3.05
Matt Murton 1.83
Mike Fontenot 1.81
Daryle Ward 1.55
Geovany Soto 1.42
Felix Pie 1.35

The Cubs's average is 2.55. They have 5 excellent batters and 5 mediocre or unproved batters /Soto, Pie/.

We could take a look on the best 2008 offense team
The Tigers

Magglio Ordonez 4.86
Curtis Granderson 4.38
Miguel Cabrera 4.36
Carlos Guillen 3.89
Gary Sheffield 3.73
Placido Polanco 3.68
Edgar Renteria 3.39
Brandon Inge 2.83
Jacque Jones 2.71
Ivan Rodriguez 2.65

The Tigers average is 3.65!

See, 10.Rodriguez 2.65 vs. 5.Diaz 2.56 ... numbers dont lie.

Sam, another thing is important, for whole prediction. The Braves has bad bullpen, I think... who is going to be closer?? Soriano, Moylan ??
With Renteria and And.Jones Atlanta had 84-78, without them they could be 80-82. It's so realistic.

No offense, but I found a couple of player related errors.

Braves:
As was already mentioned, McCann should be there instead of Franco.

Mets:
Green and Conine are no longer on the team.

Cubs:
You forgot Kosuke Fukudome.

Tigers:
Seem to be OK

[SamtheBravesFan]

Uhh.. Braves are a National League team. There are not 9 batters in the lineup and the pitcher does hit. I suspect that's a bit of a snag in your numbers.

He listed 10 players there. I think he was going for 8 and a couple of bench players. Ended up with 7 and 3 bench players.

[Zagi-CRO]

Thank you. I found one major flaw in your Braves rankings:

3B Chipper Jones 4.34
1B Mark Teixeira 3.86
RF Jeff Francoeur 3.74
2B Kelly Johnson 3.51
LF Matt Diaz 2.56
SS Yunel Escobar 2.37
BN Scott Thorman 1.72
BN Omar Infante 1.40
CF Mark Kotsay 1.27 <- Kotsay will do better than Scott Thorman. He was injuried last season so his stats look worse.
Julio Franco 0.99<- Julio Franco? I don't think he's going to be part of the Braves in 2008, or any baseball team for that matter.

No Brian McCann. You completely forgot the Braves' starting catcher. Replacing Franco with him should make the Braves break even in the standings and I'll let the others pass, but personally, I wonder if Scott Thorman is going to be out of the club in spring. I think that may affect your ranking, too.

As for the bullpen, it's more stable and better than you think it is.

Rafael Soriano is going to be the closer. Moylan is going to be the setup man. It's that simple. Soriano held opponents to a .181 batting average in 72 innings pitched last season. Most of the season, he was only a setup man because of Bob Wickman and Mike Gonzalez. But after Gonzalez had surgery and Wickman was released, Soriano became the closer. He went through a few rough patches, sure, but he didn't give up more than 2 runs, for two months at the end of the year. Soriano is stable and will be fine as a full-time closer.

I hardly think the rest of the bullpen will be worse than last season. Ohman's problems were all at Wrigley Field. Jeff Bennett is a capable spot starter and reliever. Manny Acosta did well coming in due to injuries. Tyler Yates is better than most think he is; I think his problems stem from being very overworked. Mike Gonzalez is unpredictable, I agree, but the best-case scenario is that his coming back acts like a "mid-season trade".

You really need to rank Kosuke Fukudome for the Cubs. Ranking unproven rookies is fine. The way you're doing it, at least you're consistent. However, obvious flaws I see are either completely forgetting about people or not bothering to rank some. I say that last thing because it's clear to me that you didn't bother to rank Fukudome. You should at least attempt it. This skews your rankings, however slightly.

sorry, sorry ... it was my fault about Brian McCann!!


Chipper Jones 4.34
Mark Teixeira 3.86
Jeff Francoeur 3.74
Kelly Johnson 3.51
Brian McCann 3.01
Matt Diaz 2.56
Yunel Escobar 2.37
Scott Thorman 1.72
Omar Infante 1.40
Mark Kotsay 1.27
27.76


Because of mistake with McCann /ATL instead LAD/:


NLE New York Mets 94 68
NLE Philadelphia Phillies 86 76
NLE Atlanta Braves 82 80
NLE Washington Nationals 72 90
NLE Florida Marlins 70 92

NLW Arizona Diamondbacks 89 73
NLW Los Angeles Dodgers 85 77
NLW San Diego Padres 83 79
NLW Colorado Rockies 82 80
NLW San Francisco Giants 77 85

[Zagi-CRO]

You really need to rank Kosuke Fukudome for the Cubs. Ranking unproven rookies is fine. The way you're doing it, at least you're consistent. However, obvious flaws I see are either completely forgetting about people or not bothering to rank some. I say that last thing because it's clear to me that you didn't bother to rank Fukudome. You should at least attempt it. This skews your rankings, however slightly.

Thank you. I agree. I put Fukudome in the Cub's roster with 3.00.

After that the NLC ranking:


NLC Chicago Cubs 88 74
NLC Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
NLC Houston Astros 83 79
NLC Cincinnati Reds 76 86
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 72 90
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 72 90


Sam, thank you so much for your time and advice! :)

[Zagi-CRO]

Uhh.. Braves are a National League team. There are not 9 batters in the lineup and the pitcher does hit. I suspect that's a bit of a snag in your numbers.

You have right. But I calculated for whole NL without pitchers so it's the same rule for all NL teams. Ok, it's a little bit wrong.

[Zagi-CRO]

zagi-cro can I see your rankings for the Astros offense, thanks

Yes, of course.


Carlos Lee 4.26
Lance Berkman 4.06
Hunter Pence 3.23
Ty Wigginton 3.19
Miguel Tejada 3.18
Kaz Matsui 2.90
Craig Biggio 2.62
Mark Loretta 2.52
Geoff Blum 1.91
Brad Ausmus 1.90
Average 2.98


Is anybody missing? What's with Craig Biggio?

P.S. Zagi is Croatian mascot ... http://www.bloger.hr/settings/nesvrstani/images/3047fa21_zagi.jpg :) :)

[Zagi-CRO]

No offense, but I found a couple of player related errors.

Braves:
As was already mentioned, McCann should be there instead of Franco.

Mets:
Green and Conine are no longer on the team.

Cubs:
You forgot Kosuke Fukudome.

Tigers:
Seem to be OK


Yes, it's true for the Mets. THANK YOU!!


David Wright 4.86
Jose Reyes 4.64
Carlos Beltran 4.16
Carlos Delgado 3.27
Luis Castillo 3.15
Ryan Church 2.98
Moises Alou 2.64
Brian Schneider 2.21
Damion Easley 1.66
Ruben Gotay 1.66
3.12


The Mets are on 93-69 now.

[holyroman]

Yes, of course.


Carlos Lee 4.26
Lance Berkman 4.06
Hunter Pence 3.23
Ty Wigginton 3.19
Miguel Tejada 3.18
Kaz Matsui 2.90
Craig Biggio 2.62
Mark Loretta 2.52
Geoff Blum 1.91
Brad Ausmus 1.90
Average 2.98


Is anybody missing? What's with Craig Biggio?

P.S. Zagi is Croatian mascot ... http://www.bloger.hr/settings/nesvrstani/images/3047fa21_zagi.jpg :) :)

Michael Bourn was aquired from the Phillies and is being handed the center field/lead-off role.
Craig Biggio is officially retired.
JR Towles will be the starting catcher, Ausmus will be the backup catcher, most likely for one pitcher in the rotation.
Darin Erstad on the bench instead of Ausmus perhaps.
thanks

[SamtheBravesFan]

Your prediction looks much better now, Zagi. :) I just really believe with this team, the only way that they could finish below .500 is a complete catatastrophe. I'll settle for the 82-80 prediction.

[holyroman]

Michael Bourn was aquired from the Phillies and is being handed the center field/lead-off role.
Craig Biggio is officially retired.
JR Towles will be the starting catcher, Ausmus will be the backup catcher, most likely for one pitcher in the rotation.
Darin Erstad on the bench instead of Ausmus perhaps.
thanks

Zagi, care to update the Astros lineup as well?, thanks

[holyroman]

Michael Bourn was aquired from the Phillies and is being handed the center field/lead-off role.
Craig Biggio is officially retired.
JR Towles will be the starting catcher, Ausmus will be the backup catcher, most likely for one pitcher in the rotation.
Darin Erstad on the bench instead of Ausmus perhaps.
thanks

Zagi, care to update the Astros lineup as well?, thanks

[Zagi-CRO]

Your prediction looks much better now, Zagi. :) I just really believe with this team, the only way that they could finish below .500 is a complete catatastrophe. I'll settle for the 82-80 prediction.

I'm sorry about McCann. He's in my Fantasy team with Martin Russel! :)

[Zagi-CRO]

Zagi, care to update the Astros lineup as well?, thanks


Carlos Lee 4.26
Lance Berkman 4.06
Hunter Pence 3.23
Ty Wigginton 3.19
Miguel Tejada 3.18
Kaz Matsui 2.90
Mark Loretta 2.52
Justin Towles 2.30
Geoff Blum 1.91
Michael Bourn 1.49
29.03


NLC Chicago Cubs 88 74
NLC Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
NLC Houston Astros 82 80
NLC Cincinnati Reds 76 86
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 72 90
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 72 90


Holy, is lineup now ok?

[holyroman]

Carlos Lee 4.26
Lance Berkman 4.06
Hunter Pence 3.23
Ty Wigginton 3.19
Miguel Tejada 3.18
Kaz Matsui 2.90
Mark Loretta 2.52
Justin Towles 2.30
Geoff Blum 1.91
Michael Bourn 1.49
29.03


NLC Chicago Cubs 88 74
NLC Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
NLC Houston Astros 82 80
NLC Cincinnati Reds 76 86
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 72 90
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 72 90


Holy, is lineup now ok?

yeah, I suppose that's more accurate, I will say this he is unproven, but Michael Bourn will have to preform better than you have him contributing to hold his spot down.

[SamtheBravesFan]

I'm sorry about McCann. He's in my Fantasy team with Martin Russel! :)

That's not a good idea. I tried that with two great catchers once, it didn't work out. I think you should use one of them for trade bait.

[SamtheBravesFan]

yeah, I suppose that's more accurate, I will say this he is unproven, but Michael Bourn will have to preform better than you have him contributing to hold his spot down.

Remember, he seems to base this rating off of last season.

[Zagi-CRO]

After some trades, the predictable standing:


ALC Detroit Tigers 88 74
ALC Cleveland Indians 86 76
ALC Chicago White Sox 78 84
ALC Kansas City Royals 76 86
ALC Minnesota Twins 74 88

ALE Boston Red Sox 93 69
ALE Toronto Blue Jays 87 75
ALE New York Yankees 85 77
ALE Tampa Bay Rays 78 84
ALE Baltimore Orioles 70 92

ALW Los Angeles Angels 91 71
ALW Seattle Mariners 88 74
ALW Oakland Athletics 69 93
ALW Texas Rangers 65 97

NLC Milwaukee Brewers 87 75
NLC Chicago Cubs 83 79
NLC Houston Astros 82 80
NLC Cincinnati Reds 80 82
NLC Pittsburgh Pirates 76 86
NLC St. Louis Cardinals 71 91

NLE New York Mets 92 70
NLE Atlanta Braves 85 77
NLE Philadelphia Phillies 83 79
NLE Washington Nationals 76 86
NLE Florida Marlins 69 93

NLW Los Angeles Dodgers 88 74
NLW Arizona Diamondbacks 88 74
NLW San Diego Padres 87 75
NLW Colorado Rockies 80 82
NLW San Francisco Giants 75 87



The NLW competition will be a very tough. Seems the RedSox could win the ALE very easy!?