Roy Campanella's most similar: Who deserves induction?

[Cowtipper]

Not a single one of the players most statistically similar to Roy Campanella (according to the BR similarity scores) are in the Hall of Fame. That is because many of the players are still playing and/or are not yet eligible for the HOF vote.

Here are the players similar to Campanella:

Aramis Ramirez
Mike Stanley
Jorge Posada
Eric Chavez
Javy Lopez
Kevin Mitchell
Al Rosen
Alfonso Soriano
Phil Nevin
Tony Batista

Which, if any, deserve induction into the Hall of Fame, or will deserve induction when they are eligible?

Here are some notable achievements for each, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

Ramirez:

NL All-Star (2005)
20-Home Run Seasons: 6 (2001 & 2003-2007)
30-Home Run Seasons: 4 (2001 & 2004-2006)
100 RBI Seasons: 5 (2001, 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2007)

Stanley:

AL All-Star (1995)
AL Silver Slugger Award Winner (1993)
20-Home Run Seasons: 3 (1993, 1996 & 1998)

Posada:

5-time AL All-Star (2000-2003 & 2007)
5-time AL Silver Slugger Award Winner (2000-2003 & 2007)
20-Home Run Seasons: 7 (2000-2004, 2006 & 2007)
30-Home Run Seasons: 1 (2003)
100 RBI Seasons: 1 (2003)
Won three World Series with the New York Yankees (1998, 1999 & 2000)

Chavez:

1998 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year, Huntsville Stars, Southern League & Edmonton Trappers, Pacific Coast League
6-time AL Gold Glove Winner (2001-2006)
AL Silver Slugger Award Winner (2002)
AL Bases on Balls Leader (2004)
20-Home Run Seasons: 7 (2000-2006)
30-Home Run Seasons: 2 (2001 & 2002)
100 RBI Seasons: 4 (2001-2003 & 2005)

Lopez:

1992 MVP Southern League Greenville Braves
1994 Topps All-Star Rookie Team
3-time NL All-Star (1997, 1998 & 2003)
1996 NLCS MVP
NL Silver Slugger Award Winner (2003)
2003 NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
20-Home Run Seasons: 6 (1996-1998, 2000, 2003 & 2004)
30-Home Run Seasons: 2 (1998 & 2003)
40-Home Run Seasons: 1 (2003)
100 RBI Seasons: 2 (1998 & 2003)
Won a World Series with the Atlanta Braves in 1995

Mitchell:

2-time NL All-Star (1989 & 1990)
NL MVP (1989)
NL Silver Slugger Award Winner (1989)
NL Slugging Percentage Leader (1989)
NL OPS Leader (1989)
NL Total Bases Leader (1989)
NL Home Runs Leader (1989)
NL RBI Leader (1989)
20-Home Run Seasons: 5 (1987, 1989-1991 & 1994)
30-Home Run Seasons: 3 (1989, 1990 & 1994)
40-Home Run Seasons: 1 (1989)
100 RBI Seasons: 1 (1989)
100 Runs Scored Seasons: 1 (1989)
Won a World Series with the New York Mets in 1986

Rosen:

1947 MVP Texas League Oklahoma City Indians
4-time AL All-Star (1952-1955)
AL MVP (1953)
AL Slugging Percentage Leader (1953)
AL OPS Leader (1953)
AL Runs Scored Leader (1953)
2-time AL Total Bases Leader (1952 & 1953)
2-time AL Home Runs Leader (1950 & 1953)
2-time AL RBI Leader (1952 & 1953)
20-Home Run Seasons: 6 (1950-1955)
30-Home Run Seasons: 2 (1950 & 1953)
40-Home Run Seasons: 1 (1953)
100 RBI Seasons: 5 (1950-1954)
100 Runs Scored Seasons: 3 (1950, 1952 & 1953)
200 Hits Seasons: 1 (1953)
Won a World Series with the Cleveland Indians in 1948

Soriano:

2001 Topps All-Star Rookie Team
6-time All-Star (2002-2007)
2004 All-Star Game MVP
4-time Silver Slugger Award Winner (2002/AL-2B, 2004/AL-2B, 2005/AL-2B & 2006/NL-OF)
2-time AL At Bats Leader (2002 & 2003)
AL Runs Scored Leader (2002)
AL Hits Leader (2002)
AL Stolen Bases Leader (2002)
20-Home Run Seasons: 6 (2002-2007)
30-Home Run Seasons: 5 (2002, 2003 & 2005-2007)
40-Home Run Seasons: 1 (2006)
100 RBI Seasons: 2 (2002 & 2005)
100 Runs Scored Seasons: 4 (2002, 2003, 2005 & 2006)
200 Hits Seasons: 1 (2002)

Nevin:

1-time All-Star (2001)
20-Home Run Seasons: 5 (1999-2001, 2004 & 2006)
30-Home Run Seasons: 2 (2000-2001)
40-Home Run Seasons: 1 (2001)
100 RBI Seasons: 3 (2000-2001 & 2004)

Batista:

1996 Topps All-Star Rookie Team
2-time AL All-Star (2000 & 2002)
20-Home Run Seasons: 6 (1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 & 2004)
30-Home Run Seasons: 3 (1999, 2000 & 2002)
40-Home Run Seasons: 1 (2000)
100-RBI Seasons: 3 (1999, 2000 & 2004)

[Paul Wendt]

Not a single one of the players most statistically similar to Roy Campanella (according to the BR similarity scores) are in the Hall of Fame. That is because many of the players are still playing and/or are not yet eligible for the HOF vote.

From another perspective it is because Campy was greater than his major league record. He was 26.5 years old at his debut after two-plus seasons in the minors partly or entirely because the Dodgers wanted to integrate gradually, or to provide Don Newcombe a black partner, or both. According to Jim Riley, "Campy started playing for the Baltimore Elite Giants as a fifteen-year-old youngster learning his trade from the great Biz Mackey." That was in 1937. He played nine pro seasons '37-45 before signing with the Dodgers.

His great peak, recognized by three MVP awards in five seasons '51-55, also marks Campy better than his mlb career record.

Which, if any, deserve induction into the Hall of Fame, or will deserve induction when they are eligible?

probably Posada

maybe Chavez, if he comes back

Rosen would have, if he came back

[Phish]

if Soriano stays healthy and doesn't show much decline in his late career, he may have a shot.

[Chickazoola]

From another perspective it is because Campy was greater than his major league record. He was 26.5 years old at his debut after two-plus seasons in the minors partly or entirely because the Dodgers wanted to integrate gradually, or to provide Don Newcombe a black partner, or both. According to Jim Riley, "Campy started playing for the Baltimore Elite Giants as a fifteen-year-old youngster learning his trade from the great Biz Mackey." That was in 1937. He played nine pro seasons '37-45 before signing with the Dodgers.

His great peak, recognized by three MVP awards in five seasons '51-55, also marks Campy better than his mlb career record.



probably Posada

maybe Chavez, if he comes back

Rosen would have, if he came back

How does Chavez have a shot over Aramis?

[jalbright]

The other thing to note is this list doesn't have many catchers. Campy, even before we talk about his delay in entering the majors due to the color line, has way more defensive value than the comparisons. He was a unique combination of hitter and defender, and similarity scores has difficulty in dealing with that.

[ElHalo]

Posada seems to me like a pretty good choice. Rosen's probably the best at his position that I think doesn't deserve to be in the Hall.

[philkid3]

I said Posada, though at this point I only consider him borderline.

[Cougar]

Rosen and Posada are the only ones that even have a borderline case.

[dgarza]

Rosen is a lock for me.

Out of the rest, only Soriano is very close. Trouble is, his case rests on him being an offensive 2B. If he gets stuck in the OF for the rest of career, he'll just be an "also ran."

Posada has possibilities, but he really needs a 18-20+ year career to get close to HOF level. He's just potential at this point. He's no Thurman Munson, and just a tad better than Javy Lopez.

[leecemark]

--Posada has a borderline case now and is still going strong. I think he is at least 50/50. A few of the other active guys could work their way into the discussion. This list really highlights the weakness of similarity lists though. Is Roy Campanella is first guy you'd think of to compare any of these guys too? Is anybody but Posada even in the first 100 guys you'd think of as a comp for Campanella?.

[Brooklyn]

Similarity scores really falls short here. Only three catchers of his 10 most similar. You also have to remember when using similarity scores that just because a player is on his list as "the most similar", it doesn't mean he is all that similar.

The #1 player on the list is Ramirez, with a similarity score of 898. This isn't particularly similar. Look at Ramirez's list - Campanella is 10th on his list, meaning there are 9 people more similar to him than Campy.

Same for Stanley - Campanella doesn't even make his list. Or Chavez. Or Kevin Mitchell. Or Al Rosen. Or Phil Nevin. Or Tony Batista. Campanella isn't on any of their lists, either. This is because there are a lot of players very close to their un-unique careers, but not very similar to Campy.

What this low similarity scores show is that he was a unique player, and not many very like him, not that these players were comparable to him.

The better the player, the lower the scores of the most similar will be, because they tend to be unique. Babe Ruth's most similar? Bonds at 737. Not really similar at all. Cobb's most similar? Speaker at 760. Again, not really similar

[KCGHOST]

I won't vote for any of these guys, yet.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Rosen is a lock for me.

For me, too. I view him as a Dizzy Dean of position players.

When Rosen retired, he was the greatest third baseman in history, in terms of peak value, and, arguably, top 10 in career value. MOST of the third basemen that would rate ahead of Rosen have come AFTER Rosen's career ended.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Similarity scores really falls short here. Only three catchers of his 10 most similar. You also have to remember when using similarity scores that just because a player is on his list as "the most similar", it doesn't mean he is all that similar.

The #1 player on the list is Ramirez, with a similarity score of 898. This isn't particularly similar. Look at Ramirez's list - Campanella is 10th on his list, meaning there are 9 people more similar to him than Campy.

Same for Stanley - Campanella doesn't even make his list. Or Chavez. Or Kevin Mitchell. Or Al Rosen. Or Phil Nevin. Or Tony Batista. Campanella isn't on any of their lists, either. This is because there are a lot of players very close to their un-unique careers, but not very similar to Campy.

What this low similarity scores show is that he was a unique player, and not many very like him, not that these players were comparable to him.

The better the player, the lower the scores of the most similar will be, because they tend to be unique. Babe Ruth's most similar? Bonds at 737. Not really similar at all. Cobb's most similar? Speaker at 760. Again, not really similar

This is true. Although one of the things that made Campy unique was his inconsistency from season to season.

Some of Campy's inconsistency stems from the fact that he was a 26 year old rookie. and he only played in 83 games in his rookie year. This, of course, was due to baseball's racial situation. Campy was ready for the big leagues several seasons before he was called up, of course; his career would look differently if he had come up at age 23.