The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 2 – 1910’s/20’s

[Freakshow]

Welcome to The Ultimate Quest for Candidates (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=68815) – Round 2. This thread will have the first poll in the second round, combining the leading players from the polls for the 1910’s (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=69987) and the 1920’s (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=69107). Refer to the earlier threads for discussion and links to biographies.

There will be 15 players on the ballot. You will be asked to vote for 5 (FIVE) players. These 12 players automatically advanced to this round by their top finishes in the Round 1 polls:

86% Sherry Magee
82% Heinie Groh
80% Urban Shocker
80% Carl Mays
75% Larry Doyle
72% Wally Schang
71% Bobby Veach
61% Gavy Cravath
57% George J. Burns
54 % Wilbur Cooper
48% Dolf Luque
47% Jack Fournier

We need to decide who will get the other three spots on the ballot. There are nine runners-up who are under consideration:

39% Firpo Marberry
36% Hippo Vaughn
36% Babe Adams
36% Cy Williams
27% Jack Quinn
25% Ken Williams
21% Jake Daubert
18% Joe Wood
18% Ed Konetchy

My personal picks are Quinn for sure and probably Konetchy and Wood. Your input on this issue is strongly requested as we look to develop a consensus.

Below are the players we voted as the top 21 HOF candidates whose careers centered in the 1910’s and 1920’s.

Pos BJ Player Name Win Shares WARP3 other
7 #26 George J Burns (295: 35-34-31) (76.7: 10.4-9.7-9.3)
1 #55 Wilbur Cooper (266: 31-27-27) (68.2: 9.4-8.1-7.6)
9 #29 Gavy Cravath (204: 35-29-28) (51.5: 10.4-7.5-6.7)
4 #20 Larry Doyle (292: 33-29-28) (69.2: 7.8-7.6-7.1)
3 #35 Jack Fournier(231: 34-29-28) (60.6: 9.0-8.6-7.6)
5 #21 Heinie Groh (277: 37-33-30) (93.9: 11.7-10.6-10.3)
1 #90 Dolf Luque (241: 39-27-23) (74.4: 13.7-10.2-7.0)
7 #21 Sherry Magee (356: 38-36-31) (92.9: 9.7-8.4-8.3)
1 #38 Carl Mays (256: 35-30-27) (79.4: 10.0-8.9-8.6)
2 #20 Wally Schang (245: 20-20-19) (77.7: 8.4-6.7-6.6)
1 #71 Urban Shocker (225: 30-29-25) (77.9: 11.3-10.0-8.7)
7 #33 Bobby Veach (269: 35-31-30) (84.1: 10.8-10.6-9.1)
1 #93 Babe Adams (246: 30-29-25) (63.6: 10.3-8.1-7.7) x
3 #61 Jake Daubert (265: 27-24-24) (85.2: 8.0-7.9-7.7) x
3 #48 Ed Konetchy(285: 27-26-26) (81.9: 8.5-8.1-7.8) x
1 --- Firpo Marberry(177: 26-20-20) (51.9: 10.5-5.9-5.6) x
1 --- Jack Quinn (280: 27-22-19) (89.9: 9.1-7.1-6.7) x
1 #96 Hippo Vaughn (210: 33-30-24) (59.0: 9.3-8.6-8.2) x
8 #75 Cy Williams(235: 24-21-19) (63.1: 7.7-5.5-5.3) x
7 #50 Ken Williams(202: 30-29-27) (57.7: 9.6-8.5-6.0) military age 28
1 #94 Joe Wood (195: 44-26-20) (57.3: 13.2-9.3-8.1) x

Pos – primary position(s)
BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years

Some other things to be aware of:
1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
2) Win shares in Federal League play are discounted 15%. Quinn’s 1914 was lowered from 32 to 27 and his career lowered from 287 to 280; Konetchy’s 1915 was lowered from 27 to 23 and his career lowered from 287 to 283. YMMV, but some discount is clearly in order; the FL was a AAAA league, if that.
3) WARP3 attempts to account for league strength; players like Doyle, Magee, Cravath, Cooper and Cy Williams are sharply discounted for the supposed inferiority of the NL in the teens.
4) You are free to credit players with minor league or foreign league play. I have not attempted this, but the guys at the Hall of Merit have. Cravath, Quinn, Luque, Fournier and K. Williams are five players who lost productive years due to being held out of MLB by powers beyond their control.
5) Win shares during 1918-19 are increased for those short seasons. The 1918 season is also discounted due to many players being in military service. Players get a 7% increase for 1918 and a 10% increase for 1919. For most players, this adds 2-3 WS to their careers. Burns, Groh and Vaughn each added five.

That leaves 15 players that dropped out of consideration after Round 1: Donie Bush, Jimmie Dykes, Art Fletcher, Larry Gardner, Charlie Grimm, Sam Jones, Joe Judge, Clyde Milan, Roger Peckinpaugh, Del Pratt, Eddie Rommel, Frank Schulte, Bob Shawkey, Riggs Stephenson and George Uhle. Each of these candidates drew less than 15% support.

[jjpm74]

Jack Quinn is a good pick, and should be one of the three, but Babe Adams has him beat in Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, posted a .737 ERA in 1921 which led the league, and his 1.29 walks per nine innings is second among pitchers from the 20th century. He should definitely be one of the 3, IMO.

If Joe Wood had more than a few peak seasons, he'd be a good candidate, but there are too many what ifs surrounding him and talent alone isn't enough for him to make the cut, IMO.

Konetchy was a good hitter but his numbers are middle of the road, still, he has a leg up on the rest of the non-pitching candidates. My three choices would be Jack Quinn, Babe Adams and Ed Konetchy. With Babe Adams being the number one choice.

[Paul Wendt]

We need to decide who will get the other three spots on the ballot. There are nine runners-up who are under consideration:

39% Firpo Marberry
36% Hippo Vaughn
36% Babe Adams
36% Cy Williams
27% Jack Quinn
25% Ken Williams
21% Jake Daubert
18% Joe Wood
18% Ed Konetchy

I voted for Vaughn, Quinn, and ten "winners".
My personal selections at the moment are Vaughn, Adams, and Quinn.

I believe the conventional ranking of these nine candidates is close to the inverse of this list by percent support in our two first-round polls. Konetchy, Daubert, and Quinn (probably) or Wood or KWilliams, with Marberry bringing up the rear.

Participants in this forum and in this Ultimate Search series are more "career-oriented" than I am but less than is convention (as I see it). Probably you should reflect such an intermediate position.

--
From the general introduction I know that in mid-stage discussions such as this we will extend the list of 86 first-round "winners" to a list of 100 or about 100. That will complete the first-listed objective of The Ultimate Search for Candidates. What use do you plan to make of the list of 100?

Do you plan that in each round 2 or round 3 poll the number of candidates we vote for (5, here in 1910s-1920s) is the number who advance to the next round without further discussion?

[dgarza]

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I'd choose Firpo Marberry, Cy Williams, & Ken Williams as my top 3 picks.

[Freakshow]

I voted for Vaughn, Quinn, and ten "winners".
My personal selections at the moment are Vaughn, Adams, and Quinn.

I believe the conventional ranking of these nine candidates is close to the inverse of this list by percent support in our two first-round polls. Konetchy, Daubert, and Quinn (probably) or Wood or KWilliams, with Marberry bringing up the rear.

Participants in this forum and in this Ultimate Search series are more "career-oriented" than I am but less than is convention (as I see it). Probably you should reflect such an intermediate position.

--
From the general introduction I know that in mid-stage discussions such as this we will extend the list of 86 first-round "winners" to a list of 100 or about 100. That will complete the first-listed objective of The Ultimate Search for Candidates. What use do you plan to make of the list of 100?

Do you plan that in each round 2 or round 3 poll the number of candidates we vote for (5, here in 1910s-1920s) is the number who advance to the next round without further discussion?
I'm not firmly tied to my three picks; I mentioned them just to get the discussion rolling. These three are unlikely to advance to Round 3, but I'd like to get them "right" to construct the top 100 HOF candidates list.

What will I do with the 100 candidate list? I haven't quite decided on a structure, but I'd like to do a project to make inductions to that oft-mentioned but never-defined construct, the Hall of Very Good.

And the answer to your last question is in the introductory thread: I am planning to have at-large selections from Round 2 added to the Round 3 polls. The present scheme has the 5 winners in the 1910/20 poll combine with the 5 winners from the 1930/40 poll, plus three others. That will make a 13-man poll for the 1910/20/30/40 Round 3 election.

[Freakshow]

So far the consensus is leaning towards Jack Quinn, Babe Adams and Ed Konetchy as the three to include in the poll.

It would be helpful to gather a few more opinions on this. Or are we all good with those three?

[Chickazoola]

So far the consensus is leaning towards Jack Quinn, Babe Adams and Ed Konetchy as the three to include in the poll.

It would be helpful to gather a few more opinions on this. Or are we all good with those three?

I like Cy Williams more than Konetchy, mainly due to the homeruns, and Williams has the black and grey ink. But Adams and Quinn I am ok with.

[leecemark]

So far the consensus is leaning towards Jack Quinn, Babe Adams and Ed Konetchy as the three to include in the poll.

It would be helpful to gather a few more opinions on this. Or are we all good with those three?


--Sorry I was waiting for the poll:confused:. I like Hippo Vaughn over Quinn. Actually I don't really like any of them too much, but if we are picking three put me down for Vaughn, Adams and Konetchy.

[Freakshow]

--Sorry I was waiting for the poll:confused:.
The poll will be a 15 man ballot for the stars of the teens and twenties, 12 of whom gained automatic inclusion from the Round 1 polls. This preliminary discussion is to decide who should be on that poll -- I wasn't planning a separate poll to decide the three at-large candidates.

[Cougar]

I failed to get that too.

OK, though, in that case:

I'm a HUGE Cy Williams booster. He's one of the best kept secrets in baseball history. 4-time HR king, good fielding CF...frankly, if he didn't play half his career in the dead ball era, I think he would have had a career comparable to Duke Snider's.

The others...Konetchy and Marberry, I guess, with regrets to Wood, Vaughn, and Quinn.

But I'd vote for Cy Williams three times if I could.

[Paul Wendt]

When I learned about the project and visited the 1920s poll I expected to vote for Cy Williams (and five pitchers). I was disappointed to see that he was an everyday player only in the early 1920s and I plunked for Wally Schang, one of our election "winners".

He was an outstanding player and a regular CF for ten seasons. No doubt Baker Bowl suited his style, or his talents if he adapted his style, and that was a big part of his late development as a player.

By the way, does anyone know whether his trade and the Alexander trade were related. It's hard to believe that the Cubs and Phillies gave up Williams and Alexander in the two separate trades we list.

You can't go very far wrong or very far right!

[Freakshow]

I failed to get that too.

OK, though, in that case:

I'm a HUGE Cy Williams booster. He's one of the best kept secrets in baseball history. 4-time HR king, good fielding CF...frankly, if he didn't play half his career in the dead ball era, I think he would have had a career comparable to Duke Snider's.

The others...Konetchy and Marberry, I guess, with regrets to Wood, Vaughn, and Quinn.

But I'd vote for Cy Williams three times if I could.
It's a bit disappointing at this late date to see anyone touting Cy Williams. How long have we known about park effects? 25 years? And that's all it is for Cy.

Both Win Shares and WARP agree that he had one decent year (one year above 21 WS - one year above 6.0 WARP3); even that one was far short of being an MVP-type season.

Williams was a great natural athlete. He went straight from Notre Dame, where he took up baseball part-time, to the big leagues. He decided to skip the 1912 Olympics, and signed with the Cubs instead.

Despite not being a top-drawer star, he had one of the longest careers among position players of his era due to his athleticism and training habits. However, in his 19-year career he was an everyday player (80% of team games) in only eight years. That's a big strike against him in trying to build his case as a great player.

He was a dead-pull LH hitter, perfectly suited for Baker Bowl. Of his 251 career HR, 161 (64%) were hit at home. Unlike some others, he did not take extraordinary advantage of the "cozy confines"; he hit about as well as should be expected given the conditions. IOW, his increased offense at home was about the same level that the average player benefitted.

So all that Black Ink and HR crowns are about what one would expect from a good hitter in those conditions. It is not an indication that he was a superior player deserving of serious HOF consideration.

[leecemark]

--If Williams had been able to stay in the lineup more he'd be a very good Hall of Fame candidate. As it is he falls pretty clearly short IMO.

[baseballPAP]

My picks would be for Adams, Quinn and Kenny Williams. The first 2 are no-brainers...Williams has always felt severely underrated to me. He was one of just a few players to embrace Ruth's style, and added some speed to the package as well.

[Brad Harris]

Big Ed Konetchy was arguably the best first baseman of the era and I'd personally take him over Frank Chance any day of the week.

Joe Quinn and Joe Wood would be my other two picks.

I'm not about to give Marberry a pass because he was a prototype reliever. He simply wasn't as valuable as Quinn or Smokey Joe.

[Freakshow]

After a week's discussion we have a clear consensus: Jack Quinn, Ed Konetchy and Babe Adams were all mentioned by a majority of the nine persons who weighed in; they have been included among the top 15 candidates for the Hall of Fame from the 1910's and 1920's.

The poll will be open for five weeks. Again, we want your top 5 players in this poll, no more and no less. As always, go beyond the numbers and base your votes on the total contribution to baseball made by these men.

[dgarza]

1. Sherry Magee
2. Bobby Veach
3. Larry Doyle
4. Carl Mays
5. Gavy Cravath

[Freakshow]

MadHatter:

You only voted for 3 guys. We need you to name two more.

[Erik Bedard]

I'm one of only two who voted for Gavy Cravath?

Ignore the league column and see if this guy is worthy of HoF consideration:

Year Lg Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OBA SLG OPS+ WS
----+----+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+----+----+----+----+----
1906 PCL 25 133 473 60 114 26 5 4 62 .241 .329 .342 109 16.0
1907 PCL 26 138 440 61 119 29 2 6 59 .270 .357 .386 135 21.3
1908 AL 27 94 277 43 71 10 11 1 38 .256 .354 .383 136 12.4
1909 AL/AA 28 138 450 60 118 21 5 5 79 .262 .372 .364 131 19.8
1910 AA 29 150 517 70 151 32 7 9 89 .292 .396 .433 150 28.5
1911 AA 30 153 534 97 171 42 7 19 98 .320 .426 .532 166 32.8
1912 NL 31 130 436 63 124 30 9 11 47 .284 .358 .470 119 15.4
1913 NL 32 147 525 78 179 34 14 19 55 .341 .407 .568 172 28.5
1914 NL 33 149 499 76 149 27 8 19 83 .299 .402 .499 160 27.7
1915 NL 34 150 522 89 149 31 7 24 86 .285 .393 .510 171 34.6
1916 NL 35 137 448 70 127 21 8 11 64 .283 .379 .440 147 25.8
1917 NL 36 140 503 70 141 29 16 12 70 .280 .369 .473 153 26.2
1918 NL 37 121 426 43 99 27 5 8 54 .232 .320 .376 106 11.5
1919 NL 38 83 214 34 73 18 5 12 35 .341 .438 .640 213 15.5
1920 NL 39 46 45 2 13 5 0 1 9 .289 .407 .467 145 2.0

Total 1909 6309 916 1798 382 109 161 928 .285 .389 .457 147 318.0

That's Gavy Cravath, with his minor league numbers adjusted to the major league level. There have to be some questions about park, etc., but taking purely the raw data, is Cravath much worse than Chuck Klein or Ralph Kiner?

[Captain Cold Nose]

I'm one of only two who voted for Gavy Cravath?

Ignore the league column and see if this guy is worthy of HoF consideration:

Year Lg Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OBA SLG OPS+ WS
----+----+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+----+----+----+----+----
1906 PCL 25 133 473 60 114 26 5 4 62 .241 .329 .342 109 16.0
1907 PCL 26 138 440 61 119 29 2 6 59 .270 .357 .386 135 21.3
1908 AL 27 94 277 43 71 10 11 1 38 .256 .354 .383 136 12.4
1909 AL/AA 28 138 450 60 118 21 5 5 79 .262 .372 .364 131 19.8
1910 AA 29 150 517 70 151 32 7 9 89 .292 .396 .433 150 28.5
1911 AA 30 153 534 97 171 42 7 19 98 .320 .426 .532 166 32.8
1912 NL 31 130 436 63 124 30 9 11 47 .284 .358 .470 119 15.4
1913 NL 32 147 525 78 179 34 14 19 55 .341 .407 .568 172 28.5
1914 NL 33 149 499 76 149 27 8 19 83 .299 .402 .499 160 27.7
1915 NL 34 150 522 89 149 31 7 24 86 .285 .393 .510 171 34.6
1916 NL 35 137 448 70 127 21 8 11 64 .283 .379 .440 147 25.8
1917 NL 36 140 503 70 141 29 16 12 70 .280 .369 .473 153 26.2
1918 NL 37 121 426 43 99 27 5 8 54 .232 .320 .376 106 11.5
1919 NL 38 83 214 34 73 18 5 12 35 .341 .438 .640 213 15.5
1920 NL 39 46 45 2 13 5 0 1 9 .289 .407 .467 145 2.0

Total 1909 6309 916 1798 382 109 161 928 .285 .389 .457 147 318.0

That's Gavy Cravath, with his minor league numbers adjusted to the major league level. There have to be some questions about park, etc., but taking purely the raw data, is Cravath much worse than Chuck Klein or Ralph Kiner?

Cravath was one of the last cuts I made to get to my five. I just think there are others in the poll who make better candidates.

[jalbright]

I'm one of only two who voted for Gavy Cravath?

Ignore the league column and see if this guy is worthy of HoF consideration:


That's Gavy Cravath, with his minor league numbers adjusted to the major league level. There have to be some questions about park, etc., but taking purely the raw data, is Cravath much worse than Chuck Klein or Ralph Kiner?

But you can't ignore the league column. Then you throw in the questions about the parks (Baker Bowl and Nicollette Park, especially), it's easy for me to keep him out of the top five when there are others I prefer. And if Chuck Klein, with the fact he really didn't produce outside of the Baker Bowl, is a key element of the case for Cravath, well, suffice it to say I'm unimpressed.

OK, those are supposedly ML conversions. By whom, using what methodology? How well does that conversion, especially in the Win Shares, deal with park adjustments? If I'm going to buy something like that, I want to figuratively speaking kick the tires. Even so, with the questions about the parks, I'd rather go with five others. Sorry.

[MadHatter]

MadHatter:

You only voted for 3 guys. We need you to name two more.


Apologies...

Let's go with Veach and Doyle.

[Paul Wendt]

The polls opened at 3:40 EST, and at 4:32,
I'm one of only two who voted for Gavy Cravath?
Is it early to write the book of lamentations?

Ultimate Search is a minor success, FS. You had people waiting in line for the opening bell. Major success remains indeterminate.

Magee and Groh seem to me the only n-b.
I might vote for Cravath.
Before any casting any votes I will count the number of Hall of Fame pitchers from different time periods. I voted for five 1920s pitchers in their own decade and at a glance it's easy to see going for three or none.

[Paul Wendt]

1910s/20s, Ultimate Search round two
Here they arranged by primary fielding position and by lastname within position.
LF CF RF
Burns -- Cravath
Magee
Veach

3B SS 2B 1B
Groh -- Doyle Fournier
Konetchy
C
Schang

P
Adams
Cooper
Luque
Mays
Quinn
Shocker

[Freakshow]

Ultimate Search is a minor success, FS. You had people waiting in line for the opening bell. Major success remains indeterminate.

Yeah, pretty cool. I gotta get off my butt and get the 1880's thread up.:choke:

[Brad Harris]

Let's hear it for Round Two! Woot! :D

[Paul Wendt]

I am leaning toward pitchers Cooper, Mays, and Shocker (plus Magee and Groh). But I have a month to sleep on it. There may be a comparative effect. Cooperstown inducted Marquard, Pennock, Hoyt, Haines, and these guys were better. There isn't any shortage of HOF pitchers or innings in the 1920s, not until the mid-1930s.

[Paul Wendt]

I plunked for Mays, Cooper, and Cravath.
Shocker isn't quite good enough at this stage.

I see the case for casting four or five votes to the 'teens --that is, for one or two more "position players" ahead of Mays and Cooper. But neither case is strong so it seems worthwhile to kill two birds with one stone: stop thinking about this and return the ballot to page one.

--
By the way, most of the 1920s survivors played half their careers in the 'teens and none played half in the 'thirties.

[Paul Wendt]

The table at the head of this thread covers 21 players on the preliminary ballot. For Ken Williams (who missed the cut for the poll) there is a note "military age 28". Is he the only one?

In their encyclopedia Neft & Cohen use 'MS' and 'WW' to mark players in military service and war work. For 1918 they mark 6 to 16 players per team including numerous Hall of Famers. They also mark Urban Shocker from our ballot. Shocker pitched in 14 games including 9 starts, 7 complete; 94-2/3 innings with ERA 1.81, adjusted ERA+ 152.

[edit: expand and rewrite below]
Perhaps 200 major league players (status determined by Neft & Cohen) spent part or all of the 1918 season in military service or war work. In contrast I count only three, twelve, and one player marked for 1917, 1919, and 1920.

Hank Gowdy 1917-19 and Dick Hoblitzel 1918-20 missed parts of three seasons. Eppa Rixey may be the most prominent player who missed parts of two seasons, 1918-19. Of course others were affected after 1918 either because they did not regain form in 1919 or because of a general decline in health.
(Christy Mathewson inhaled poison gas. I don't remember reading that about any active player; Matty was Cincinnati manager. I do recall reading that Grover Alexander suffered from epilepsy severely only after his tour of duty. The Great Influenza probably impaired some players and killed a few.)

[AstrosFan]

Groh
Doyle
Magee
Mays
Schang

Pretty conventional picks here.

[Freakshow]

This poll has now closed. With 20 voters weighing in, there are five players assured of being on the ballot in Round 3, the best Hall of Fame Candidates from the 1910's and 20's:

Larry Doyle
Heinie Groh
Sherry Magee
Carl Mays
Wally Schang

These five will be combined with the top five from the 1930's/40's poll, plus three at-large spots.

These four players have earned consideration for an at-large spot on the ballot in Round 3:

Babe Adams
Wilbur Cooper
Gavy Cravath
Urban Shocker

Two voters cast short ballots, making the percents differ slightly from the poll above. Here are the official results of the 1910's/20's poll:
Advances to Rd. 3 Ballots Points Percent
Carl Mays 18 17 85.0%
Sherry Magee 17 17 85.0%
Heinie Groh 14 14 70.0%
Larry Doyle 13 13 65.0%
Wally Schang 9 8.6 43.0%
At-large Candidates
Gavy Cravath 7 6.4 32.0%
Wilbur Cooper 5 5 25.0%
Babe Adams 4 4 20.0%
Urban Shocker 4 3.6 18.0%
Also-Ran
George J Burns 2 2 10.0%
Bobby Veach 2 2 10.0%
Jack Fournier 0 0 0.0%
Ed Konetchy 0 0 0.0%
Dolf Luque 0 0 0.0%
Jack Quinn 0 0 0.0%

[Paul Wendt]

Congratulations to Babe Adams who proved to be more than ballot filler while first-round winners Burns and Veach faded.

[Freakshow]

Congratulations to Babe Adams who proved to be more than ballot filler while first-round winners Burns and Veach faded.
Veach had exactly twice as much support as Adams in Round 1. In this round, Adams had exactly twice as much support as Veach.:confused: