Hofers as of now

[fenrir]

Who do you think will get into the hall of fame as of now? the question isn't who you think should get in, but who will get in.

I would say the locks are:

- Greg Maddux
- Alex Rodriguez
- Ivan Rodriguez
- Randy Johnson
- Pedro Martinez
- Randy Johnson
- Tom Glavine
- Frank Thomas
- Ken Griffey Jr.
- Mike Piazza
- Mariano Rivera
- Trevor Hoffman
- Manny Ramirez
- Craig Biggio


Borderline hofers as of now:

- Derek Jeter
- Curt Schilling
- Jim Thome
- Vladimir Guerrero
- Chipper Jones
- Omar Vizquel??

Will probably get in the future:

- Albert Pujols
- Johan Santana

Have the numbers, but might not get in because of PED allegations:

- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Sammy Sosa
- Gary Sheffield

No shot:

- Kevin Brown
- Jason Giambi
- Juan Gonzalez
- Andy Pettitte

Am I missing anyone?

[Brian McKenna]

I'd add:

Bud Selig
Rickey Henderson
Edgar Martinez?

Palmiero - good #s but maybe not

[jjpm74]

I would add Jeff Kent as an at least borderline candidate. Look at who his most similar are:

Yogi Berra (887) *
Carlton Fisk (881) *
Ivan Rodriguez (865)
Johnny Bench (854) *
Jim Rice (834)
Ron Santo (826)
Ryne Sandberg (825) *
Ted Simmons (821)
Andres Galarraga (819)
Joe Cronin (813) *

He's also a 121.5 on the HOF Monitor, a 5 time All Star, and the 2000 MVP.

Jeff Bagwell is another player with a solid shot and John Smoltz is a player many consider a lock for the HOF.

Jeter's post season heroics put him in the very likely a lock even if he didn't play another game pool. Especially considering the fact that Puckett is in there.

[fenrir]

i left off bagwell palmerio, etc, because i was only doing active players. i forgot to mention it.

[fenrir]

I would add Jeff Kent as an at least borderline candidate. Look at who his most similar are:

Yogi Berra (887) *
Carlton Fisk (881) *
Ivan Rodriguez (865)
Johnny Bench (854) *
Jim Rice (834)
Ron Santo (826)
Ryne Sandberg (825) *
Ted Simmons (821)
Andres Galarraga (819)
Joe Cronin (813) *

He's also a 121.5 on the HOF Monitor, a 5 time All Star, and the 2000 MVP.

Jeff Bagwell is another player with a solid shot and John Smoltz is a player many consider a lock for the HOF.

yeah i forgot about kent and smoltz. i'd say they are both borderline. smoltz is probably the equivalent of schilling if not better.

[jjpm74]

There's also Todd Helton who's at least borderline. If Ichiro Suzuki gets credit for his play in Japan, he should also be there as an at least borderline candidate (which he should be given credit for). If you combine his hit total, he has over 3000 hits lifetime and his batting average is still up there:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/ichiro-suzuki.shtml

[Chickazoola]

I don't see Palmeiro getting anytime soon.

Ichiro will probably get in if he clears 2000 hits, and I think he's got a decent shot at 3000.

Vladdy and Jeter are both pretty much locks at this point. Chipper is very close too.

Pujols would have to get very bad, very quickly to be kept out. Even if he starts hitting .270 he will still hit 30HR's and 100RBI's like clockwork.

Santana doesn't even have 100 wins yet. He's great and all but as a pitcher it's difficult to predict his future health and success. Roy Oswalt probably has as good a chance.

[brett]

There's also Todd Helton who's at least borderline. If Ichiro Suzuki gets credit for his play in Japan, he should also be there as an at least borderline candidate (which he should be given credit for). If you combine his hit total, he has over 3000 hits lifetime and his batting average is still up there:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/ichiro-suzuki.shtml


Helton needs to last a little more. In his case, his inflated stats may help to serve justice over the fact that his tremendous defense will probably not carry much weight.

Helton needs 8000 plate appearances while maintaining a 140 OPS+ in my book to start moving into HOF territory. Two years like last year would get him there-into the real discussion.

I am a big fan, and have been, but there are sneaking suspicions that Helton used peds and took himself off after 2004. I will give him as much benefit of the doubt as anyone can get from that period, but quite simply, road OR home he just does not drive the ball like he used to. Then again, that would make him one of the few in recent memory who actually had an historically consistent decline phase...

As of now he's one of I believe 11 players who got at least 1 hit during the 1900s who posted .330/.400/.500 combination through 5000 at bats, or would have inevitably (Joe Jackson if he had gone hitless to 5000).

Ruth, Hornsby, Williams, Delahanty, Heilman, Cobb, Gehrig, Musial, Speaker, Joe Jackson and Helton.

[STLCards2]

Helton needs to last a little more. In his case, his inflated stats may help to serve justice over the fact that his tremendous defense will probably not carry much weight.

Helton needs 8000 plate appearances while maintaining a 140 OPS+ in my book to start moving into HOF territory. Two years like last year would get him there-into the real discussion.

I am a big fan, and have been, but there are sneaking suspicions that Helton used peds and took himself off after 2004. I will give him as much benefit of the doubt as anyone can get from that period, but quite simply, road OR home he just does not drive the ball like he used to. Then again, that would make him one of the few in recent memory who actually had an historically consistent decline phase...

As of now he's one of I believe 11 players who got at least 1 hit during the 1900s who posted .330/.400/.500 combination through 5000 at bats, or would have inevitably (Joe Jackson if he had gone hitless to 5000).

Ruth, Hornsby, Williams, Delahanty, Heilman, Cobb, Gehrig, Musial, Speaker, Joe Jackson and Helton.


Does Albert not fit this criteria?

[Brian McKenna]

If Ichiro Suzuki gets credit for his play in Japan, he should also be there as an at least borderline candidate (which he should be given credit for). If you combine his hit total, he has over 3000 hits lifetime and his batting average is still up there:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/ichiro-suzuki.shtml

Ichiro is definitely an interesting case. He's one of my favorite ballplayers and his quickly putting up a HOF resume in the U.S. Obviously, he needs three more years to be eligible.

I don't want to start an argument here but Cooperstown shouldn't consider his pre-2001 stats for inclusion into the "National BB HOF."

BTW - much of what is included of his 1992 and 1993 stats are minor league stats in Japan (the "West" stats).

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ichiro, Pujols, and Vlad have, IMO, done enough to date to make it into the HOF based on what they've done to date.

[jjpm74]

Does Albert not fit this criteria?

He doesn't have enough seasons to qualify yet. Ask the same question 5 years from now if he keeps up his current pace and he's a lock.

[jalbright]

I don't want to start an argument here but Cooperstown shouldn't consider his pre-2001 stats for inclusion into the "National BB HOF."

Other than the name and the rule about service, please point out anything which indicates the HOF is meant solely to deal with baseball in North America. Actually, there is mention of baseball worldwide (not an exact quote) in its mission statement. This is the weakest of the arguments against Japanese players, but used the most often because it doesn't require much thought other than saying "National--case closed".

[fenrir]

Other than the name and the rule about service, please point out anything which indicates the HOF is meant solely to deal with baseball in North America. Actually, there is mention of baseball worldwide (not an exact quote) in its mission statement. This is the weakest of the arguments against Japanese players, but used the most often because it doesn't require much thought other than saying "National--case closed".

where can you find ichiro's japan stats?

[STLCards2]

Does Albert not fit this criteria?

Didn't read the 5,000 AB requirement. Asuming health, will have that in 2 seasons, not "5" as has been mentioned. If it takes Pujols 5 seasons to accumulate another 900 AB's, that would be really bad for him and the Cardinals.

[jalbright]

where can you find ichiro's japan stats?

Scroll down to Ichiro Suzuki on this page: http://www.japanbaseballdaily.com/battingSuzaki-Suzukida.html or just go to this page: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=28 The latter is easier, as it is only Ichiro.

[frehleyscomet]

I think Juan Gonzalez has a great shot.

[GiambiJuice]

Anything Ichiro did in Japan shouldn't be counted. He should have to earn his spot here in the U.S. Personally I think it would be a travesty if he makes it and real hitters like Albert Belle and Dick Allen don't.

[jjpm74]

Other than the name and the rule about service, please point out anything which indicates the HOF is meant solely to deal with baseball in North America. Actually, there is mention of baseball worldwide (not an exact quote) in its mission statement. This is the weakest of the arguments against Japanese players, but used the most often because it doesn't require much thought other than saying "National--case closed".

Not only that, but a lot of those Negro league players were credited for games played outside the US. Weren't they or am I mistaken?

[Paul Wendt]

Not only that, but a lot of those Negro league players were credited for games played outside the US. Weren't they or am I mistaken?

not credited formally. There was no formal criterion like the 10-season rule for major league players.

But yes, it's reasonably clear that the committee considered whole careers. Jose Mendez is probably the best example.

I'm not sure Ichiro will be credited or not, formally. If he plays ten seasons here and doesn't return to professional play in Japan his BBWAA eligibility will follow the usual rules. Neither the NBHOFM nor the BBWAA will say anything official until they feel forced to do so.

[OleMissCub]

I think Juan Gonzalez has a great shot.

His numbers are close, but I think the whole "roids" thing will hurt him.

[philkid3]

Few things would make me happier than Juan Gone getting in, but I could not vote for him.

[Brad Harris]

In assessing who the voters will elect (rather than who they should elect), I restrict my opinions only to active players who, if they retired today, would meet the eligibility requirements for the Hall (i.e. 10+ seasons).

Players
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Tom Glavine
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero
Trevor Hoffman
Derek Jeter
Randy Johnson
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Jeff Kent
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mike Piazza
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriguez
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz
Sammy Sosa
Frank Thomas
Jim Thome

Managers
Bobby Cox
Tony LaRussa
Joe Torre

Executives/Pioneers
Bud Selig

Note
If the Hall changes the rules or makes an exception in his case, then add Ichiro Suzuki to the above list.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Juan Gone is the Babe Herman/Riggs Stepehenson of our time. Big numbers but in the context of his own inflated era . . .

I am so thankful he turned down that ridiculous contract the Tigers offered him.

I really can't disagree with anyone on Classic's list. Maybe Thome, but if he stays healthy and keeps hitting, he'll make it.

I don't see Ichiro needing his Japanese numbers to get in. He'll play about 14-15 years whcih will be all he needs to do with what he's already done.

Fine defense, good base runner, knows how to use the bat. Yeah, what a horrible player.

[leecemark]

Ichiro is definitely an interesting case. He's one of my favorite ballplayers and his quickly putting up a HOF resume in the U.S. Obviously, he needs three more years to be eligible.

I don't want to start an argument here but Cooperstown shouldn't consider his pre-2001 stats for inclusion into the "National BB HOF."

BTW - much of what is included of his 1992 and 1993 stats are minor league stats in Japan (the "West" stats).

--I would agree with the narrow point that Ichiro's stats in Japan shouldn't be considered. He won't be in the "3,000 hit club" unless he somehow hangs on long enough to do it in MLB, for example. I don't agree that his years of greatness in Japan have no bearing on his Hall of Fame case though. If someone was to argue against his election because he was a singles hitter with "only 2,5000 hits" or whatever his final number might be that would be silly. You can't completely ignore that he was a great hitter in another league before coming to MLB.
--If he is close to being a Hall of Famer based on what he does in MLB then his Japan League greatness should easily be enough to get him over the line. I'd say he has already had a Hall of Fame type career and he just needs to get his 10 years in without embarrassing himself. He'll be at 12 seasons when his current contract runs out in 5 years. If that is it for him in the majors he should be in Cooperstown 5 years after that.

[Andominus]

I really can't disagree with anyone on Classic's list. Maybe Thome, but if he stays healthy and keeps hitting, he'll make it.

I agree with you about Thome. Right now, also, Andruw Jones definitely would not be in the HOF. He has only 4 seasons of 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs, and in those seasons his BA,except for 2000, was pretty subpar. Granted, he's a great centerfielder, but I feel he needs a power resurgence to make the Hall (if he reaches 500 fine he's in IMO).

I also am unsure about Chipper Jones...6 straight 20+HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs from the late 90s to the beginning of the decade, but his power has slumped as he's battled injuries and age. Right now, I feel like he's on the cusp, but if he keeps up the numbers he's posted over the last two years for a couple more years (especially the high batting average), he's definitely a lock. I just wouldn't put him there yet...

[Brian McKenna]

If he is close to being a Hall of Famer based on what he does in MLB then his Japan League greatness should easily be enough to get him over the line.


I agree with this as long as he has a long and successful career in MLB.

However, some will then argue that if a great ballplayer from NPB comes to the MLB just for a couple of years at the end of his career or even for one game, that he should be eligible.

Likewise for men who played in the Cuban League or even those who spent significant time playing ball in the Napalese Army League or such. Where will it end and who would be these racist Americans who then show great respect to NPB but not the Central African League? What will we then say - oh, sorry African ballplayers our computer shows that statistically...blah, blah, blah?

[leecemark]

--At present I would not support adding any players who don't meet the 10 year MLB requirement. Inducting the cream of the Negro Leagues was a small step toward correcting the injustice of segregation, but we've probably gone as far as needed there (if anybody was missed I'd say let them have their case made to the VC instead of another special committee) and other players from outside MLB (mostly referring to the Japanese League, but it apllies elsewhere too) can be honored in their own Halls.

[jjpm74]

--At present I would not support adding any players who don't meet the 10 year MLB requirement. Inducting the cream of the Negro Leagues was a small step toward correcting the injustice of segregation, but we've probably gone as far as needed there (if anybody was missed I'd say let them have their case made to the VC instead of another special committee) and other players from outside MLB (mostly referring to the Japanese League, but it apllies elsewhere too) can be honored in their own Halls.

It's kind of hard to ignore Ichiro's MLB numbers and also hard to ignore the fact that he is 34 years old, meaning he's likely to go on a decline soon. Whether or not he can remain around to 40, he will hopefully be considered since he did not have a choice about where he could play for the majority of his Japanese baseball career. Even if he sticks around another 8 years, that'd only give him 15 major league seasons with half in his decline years. It'd be hard to ignore at least part of his Japanese play when the time comes for him to retire, especially given the fact that he didn't miss a step when he tranistioned to the MLB. We're not talking about a guy who played 1 year in the majors. We're talking about one of the best hitters of the past several decades who's played 7 MLB seasons to date.

[Brad Harris]

If Ichiro plays at least until 2010 at remotely the same level he's been producing at, I don't see any way that the BBWAA doesn't elect him on the first ballot.

[digglahhh]

Ichiro, Pujols, and Vlad have, IMO, done enough to date to make it into the HOF based on what they've done to date.

Only Vlad has the 10-year eligibility clause completed, so I think that has to prevent Ichiro or Pujol from the "locks" category, de facto.

[STLCards2]

Only Vlad has the 10-year eligibility clause completed, so I think that has to prevent Ichiro or Pujol from the "locks" category, de facto.

If (and it is a big if considering he might have TJ surgery this year) Albert post 2 more MVP level seasons, then retires, will they really keep him out of the Hall of Fame - with 9 high All-Star/ MVP caliber seasons? Or will they make an exception, similar to how the NHL waives the 3 year policy for some guys? I know the MLB is much stricter about such things, but I would hate to think they would be so legalistic.

[Captain Cold Nose]

If (and it is a big if considering he might have TJ surgery this year) Albert post 2 more MVP level seasons, then retires, will they really keep him out of the Hall of Fame - with 9 high All-Star/ MVP caliber seasons? Or will they make an exception, similar to how the NHL waives the 3 year policy for some guys? I know the MLB is much stricter about such things, but I would hate to think they would be so legalistic.

Pujols would be quite the test, wouldn't he be? Yes, 9 years is 9 years, but we'd be talking 9 historic years as opposed to four or five and some decent years.

[Chickazoola]

Anything Ichiro did in Japan shouldn't be counted. He should have to earn his spot here in the U.S. Personally I think it would be a travesty if he makes it and real hitters like Albert Belle and Dick Allen don't.

What makes Ichiro not a real hitter? And wasn't Ichiro ineligible to play in the Majors until he had played 10 years in Japan, because that's the period it takes for a player to become a free agent?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Anything Ichiro did in Japan shouldn't be counted. He should have to earn his spot here in the U.S. Personally I think it would be a travesty if he makes it and real hitters like Albert Belle and Dick Allen don't.

I agree they shouldn't be counted as equal to his major league statistics by any means but it should be give some weight. Given how burst onto the scene in '01 and it is obvious that Ichiro could have been in the majors at least 3-4 seasons earlier. Again if I was a voter and I felt a little uneasy about his counting stats being a little low I can argue yhat because of his circumstance and his initial success in the majors, and his great success in Japan he could have easily been in the majors by age 23 at the latest. But in the end I think it will be a moot point because I believe Ichiro will do enough in the majors to warrant HoF induction without taking into consideration his Japanese career. He'll most likely clear 2,500 hits and maybe, just maybe, reach 3,000. But I think that is unlikely.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

What makes Ichiro not a real hitter? And wasn't Ichiro ineligible to play in the Majors until he had played 10 years in Japan, because that's the period it takes for a player to become a free agent?

Given his Japanese record I think that is Ichiro was an American he would have been ready for the majors at age 21-22.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I agree they shouldn't be counted as equal to his major league statistics by any means but it should be give some weight. Given who burst onto the scene in '01 and it is obvious that Ichiro could have been in the majors at least 3-4 seasons earlier. Again if I was a voter and I felt a little uneasy about his counting stats being a little low I can argue yhat because of his circumstance and his initial success in the majors, and his great success in Japan he could have easily been in the majors by age 23 at the latest. But in the end I think it will be a moot point because I believe Ichiro will do enough in the majors to warrant HoF induction without taking into consideration his Japanese career. He'll most likely clear 2,500 hits and maybe, just maybe, reach 3,000. But I think that is unlikely.

I'd like to think they could use a guy like Hank Greenberg as a gage. His overall counting stats are, ahem, unimpressive.

You need to look at a player for what they did when they did it.

You meaning anyone with an interest.

[OleMissCub]

I also am unsure about Chipper Jones...6 straight 20+HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs from the late 90s to the beginning of the decade, but his power has slumped as he's battled injuries and age. Right now, I feel like he's on the cusp, but if he keeps up the numbers he's posted over the last two years for a couple more years (especially the high batting average), he's definitely a lock. I just wouldn't put him there yet...

I think Jones is definitely in, especially as regards his position.

Compare him to the other modern 3rd baseman HOF types (I'm including Santo).


Player AVG OBP SLG OPS+ AB R H HR RBI WARP3 FLD%

Mike Schmidt .267 .380 .527 147 8352 1506 2234 548 1595 157.3 .955
Eddie Mathews .271 .376 .509 143 8537 1509 2315 512 1453 145.0 .956
Ron Santo .277 .362 .464 125 8143 1138 2254 342 1331 119.9 .954
George Brett .305 .369 .487 135 10349 1583 3154 317 1595 135.7 .951
Bro. Robinson .267 .322 .401 104 10654 1232 2848 268 1357 114.9 .971
Chipper Jones .307 .403 .546 143 6898 1296 2117 386 1299 91.5 .954


Obviously, the modern offensive age is going to factor in a good bit with his stats...but he's got at LEAST 1500 less AB's than those guys and is already comparable in offensive output.

The guy is a HOFer in my opinion.

[jalbright]

However, some will then argue that if a great ballplayer from NPB comes to the MLB just for a couple of years at the end of his career or even for one game, that he should be eligible.

Likewise for men who played in the Cuban League or even those who spent significant time playing ball in the Napalese Army League or such. Where will it end and who would be these racist Americans who then show great respect to NPB but not the Central African League? What will we then say - oh, sorry African ballplayers our computer shows that statistically...blah, blah, blah?

I have never argued for charity, nor will I. I embrace the idea that if one seeks to get folks outside of the majors into the Hall, one must reasonably demonstrate that the players proposed actually provide ample evidence of being the best ballplayers in the world. I doubt that it is going to be easy to make that standard for many players outside of Japan or Castro's Cuba or the Negro Leagues. I don't think it's too much to ask to request that folks actually consider the evidence rather than plugging their ears with the fingers and making noise hoping I'll go away.

What makes Ichiro not a real hitter? And wasn't Ichiro ineligible to play in the Majors until he had played 10 years in Japan, because that's the period it takes for a player to become a free agent?

I'd have to check if it was 9 or 10 years when he made the move, as the service requirement has changed in Japan before free agency.

[Brian McKenna]

I have never argued for charity, nor will I... I don't think it's too much to ask to request that folks actually consider the evidence rather than plugging their ears with the fingers and making noise hoping I'll go away.


Sorry for the confusion but my post wasn't directed at you.

My post said that if Ichiro (a deserving candidate) is given consideration, than it could lead to some lowering standards to boost players with minimal production in the U.S. majors.

Offering an opinion about a baseball issue is not tantamount to infantilely cupping hands over ears and shouting "na na na."

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I have never argued for charity, nor will I. I embrace the idea that if one seeks to get folks outside of the majors into the Hall, one must reasonably demonstrate that the players proposed actually provide ample evidence of being the best ballplayers in the world. I doubt that it is going to be easy to make that standard for many players outside of Japan or Castro's Cuba or the Negro Leagues. I don't think it's too much to ask to request that folks actually consider the evidence rather than plugging their ears with the fingers and making noise hoping I'll go away.
A lot of people ask about Ichiro's play in Japan. Ichiro was a dominant player in Japan.

Over nine seasons Ichiro hit .355/.418/.524. Obviously the NPB is not the major leagues. But I would argue that had Ichiro been an American player he would have been in the majors by age 20 or 21. The quality of play in the NPB is considered roughly AAA. So let's go by that assumption. Here are Ichiro's age 20-22 seasons :

1994: .385/.437/.549, 210 H, 41 doubles, 13 HR, 111 R, 54 RBI, 29 SB, 51 BB, 53 K
1995: .342/.417/.544, 179 H, 23 doubles, 25 HR, 104 R, 80 RBI, 49 SB, 68 BB, 52 K
1996: .356/.416/.504, 193 H, 24 doubles, 16 HR, 104 R, 84 RBI, 35 AB, 56 Bb, 57 K

Now if some 20 year old prospect put up a season like Ichiro's 1994 season what are the chances the major league club would call him up the next season? I think it would be highly likely that they would call him up. Let's assume that for some reason the major league club doesn't think he is ready or the prospect is being blocked by an All-Star player in RF. So the now 21 year old prospect puts up a season like Ichiro's 1995 season. At this point I highly doubt any major league team would keep him in AAA any longer. After two such quality seasons the prospect wouldn't have anything left to prove at AAA.


I'd have to check if it was 9 or 10 years when he made the move, as the service requirement has changed in Japan before free agency.

Ichiro debuted for Orix in 1992. He played for them from 1992-2000 which is nine seasons.

[Paul Wendt]

If something happens to Pujols they will vary the 10-season rule to get him in. But Pujols is an exception even among all-time greats.

Santana is not close to that all-time great level. Considering all the vagaries of pitching careers, he is merely a probable future HOFer. Let me say that Santana is too young to discuss in these terms. Zito, Oswalt, and Halladay are too young. Andruw Jones is too young (I don't believe he is borderline yet). None of them will be 31 by opening day.

Am I missing anyone?

The given lists are conservative.
missing any locks or borderlines? low borderline or your high borderline standard?

Jorge Posada is already borderline

Mike Mussina is a 38-year old maybe, if 2007 is not the end.

Billy Wagner will be a very old 36 this year but he is still effective. Another maybe.

Beside Vizquel and Clemens only catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Brad Ausmus are high on the playing time lists at their positions.
Brad Ausmus? Let me lighten up a gloomy day. Bob Boone didn't get much support from the writers. It wasn't an ideal test because the much superior batter Carlton Fisk broke the record again before Boone came up for election, but I doubt that holding the record will make the difference for Ausmus. And even if he does pass Fisk, that may be short of the record, thanks to I-Rod.

Edgar Renteria gets 483 hits every three seasons (511 hits in the last three). He just enjoyed a great year by rate, but his playing time was down. What now? If he gets 483 hits in the next three seasons he will be 34 years old with 2417 in the bag, 583 to go. So he is a maybe.

Carlos Delgado will be a very young 36 this season. If 2007 is not the beginning of the end he has a chance.

Jim Edmunds is older. If 2007 is not the end he has a chance.

Andy Pettitte isn't done, present tense October 2007, and I don't believe the Mitchell Report finishes him. He replicated his career average 15-9 last year and he will be a very young 36 this year. If he puts up five seasons at 13-10 average (thru age 40, compare Schilling and Smoltz) he will have 266-163 with the all-time best post-season W-L. The W-L will get him in.

[jalbright]

My post said that if Ichiro (a deserving candidate) is given consideration, than it could lead to some lowering standards to boost players with minimal production in the U.S. majors.

Offering an opinion about a baseball issue is not tantamount to infantilely cupping hands over ears and shouting "na na na."

I'm sorry, but I did not read your post in that light. I accept your explanation, and I fully realize some people are not going to agree with me even if they are willing to listen. However, when you mention the Nepalese Army League and the Central African League and talk about a statistical argument as "blah, blah, blah", I don't think it was unreasonable for me to conclude you were expressing a dismissiveness bordering on contempt of cases of players outside the majors/Negro Leagues. I've run into my share of that kind of attitude, and it frankly infuriates me. That may well mean I'm oversensitive to what I see as fitting that kind of attitude. I hope this clears up all misunderstandings on the topic.

[mtortolero]

If something happens to Pujols they will vary the 10-season rule to get him in. But Pujols is an exception even among all-time greats.

Santana is not close to that all-time great level. Considering all the vagaries of pitching careers, he is merely a probable future HOFer. Let me say that Santana is too young to discuss in these terms. Zito, Oswalt, and Halladay are too young. Andruw Jones is too young (I don't believe he is borderline yet). None of them will be 31 by opening day.



The given lists are conservative.
missing any locks or borderlines? low borderline or your high borderline standard?

Jorge Posada is already borderline

Mike Mussina is a 38-year old maybe, if 2007 is not the end.

Billy Wagner will be a very old 36 this year but he is still effective. Another maybe.

Beside Vizquel and Clemens only catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Brad Ausmus are high on the playing time lists at their positions.
Brad Ausmus? Let me lighten up a gloomy day. Bob Boone didn't get much support from the writers. It wasn't an ideal test because the much superior batter Carlton Fisk broke the record again before Boone came up for election, but I doubt that holding the record will make the difference for Ausmus. And even if he does pass Fisk, that may be short of the record, thanks to I-Rod.

Edgar Renteria gets 483 hits every three seasons (511 hits in the last three). He just enjoyed a great year by rate, but his playing time was down. What now? If he gets 483 hits in the next three seasons he will be 34 years old with 2417 in the bag, 583 to go. So he is a maybe.

Carlos Delgado will be a very young 36 this season. If 2007 is not the beginning of the end he has a chance.

Jim Edmunds is older. If 2007 is not the end he has a chance.

Andy Pettitte isn't done, present tense October 2007, and I don't believe the Mitchell Report finishes him. He replicated his career average 15-9 last year and he will be a very young 36 this year. If he puts up five seasons at 13-10 average (thru age 40, compare Schilling and Smoltz) he will have 266-163 with the all-time best post-season W-L. The W-L will get him in.

What about Miguel Tejada?
31 years old but 11 seasons, 287/344/477, 1736 hits, 258 Hrs, 1 MVP for a SS is not a bad line.
Five seasons more as SS or 3B and he can be at 2400-2500 hits, 350-380 hrs, 1500 rbi . I think he has a very good shot.

[Brian McKenna]

I don't think it was unreasonable for me to conclude you were expressing a dismissiveness bordering on contempt of cases of players outside the majors/Negro Leagues.


The only thing I was dismissing was the inclusion of international players in Cooperstown proper. To the contempt comment - I published a historical reference book and was praised by the Sport Journal in a book review for my extensive inclusion of international, female and Negro league players - something I might add most, if any, do not do.

I fully believe that it would be beneficial if the HOF actually had a wing for international players/leagues. I would love to see displays and computer compilations of say each major league's HOFers and their contributions - and brief league histories.

This way each league is represented with their hand-selected Hall of Famers. Not sure how it would be appropriate for Americans to personally be voting and hand-selecting a relatively few international players to honor in Cooperstown. Sounds like a mess - politically and ethnically. Isn't the knock against Americans already - that we sit in judgment and think we have the right to administer the world.

Much of this information is hard and expensive to get and essentially out of reach for the common fan. It would be nice to walk into Cooperstown or log on to their site and read info about Eiji Sawamura and numerous others.

[baseballPAP]

I saw 2 people mention Bud Selig. Please tell me you think he'll get in as some sort of professional courtesy, and not because you think he truly deserves it. His tenure has been as bad for the sport as any commish in history.

[Brian McKenna]

His tenure has been as bad for the sport as any commish in history.

I'm not getting into this argument other than to say that Selig's reign is by far the most significant of any of the commissioners. The word "bad" is wholly subjective and in my opinion not relevant to a historical view of the post 1992 period.

[Paul Wendt]

What about Miguel Tejada?
31 years old but 11 seasons, 287/344/477, 1736 hits, 258 Hrs, 1 MVP for a SS is not a bad line.
Five seasons more as SS or 3B and he can be at 2400-2500 hits, 350-380 hrs, 1500 rbi . I think he has a very good shot.

Hm, yes, he was already 30 last winter. It's hard to keep track of who is where in their careers.

It's a great line for a shortstop. Many players decline sharply in their thirties but yes he has a chance. I don't believe that 3000 hits is his route to Cooperstown as it may be for Renteria (probably must be?). Tejada has been a superior batter. Even if he moves to 3B, getting halfway back to "normal" from 2007 will make him a strong candidate after five more seasons. "Everyone" doubts that he can get halfway back to normal because they now believe his norm was a creature of PEDs. But part of his norm was 162 games played, 700 plate appearances. Maybe he can get back to that half.

In contrast, Andy Pettitte put up a good 2007 season. But let me clarify myself if necessary. "Andy Pettitte isn't done, present tense October 2007, and I don't believe the Mitchell Report finishes him." I meant that the PED charges against Pettitte don't seem so serious to me --less serious charges and he has better excuse so far. (By the way, I haven't read the report.) This is in comparison who are cooked in fenrir's opinion: Brown, Giambi, Gonzalez.

[CTaka]

yeah i forgot about kent and smoltz. i'd say they are both borderline. smoltz is probably the equivalent of schilling if not better.


I'd say Kent is much closer to a lock than a borderline. He hit more homers than any other 2B in history. And I believe his 8 seasons with 100 or more RBIs is more than any other 2B in history. His career RBI total is more than any 2B not named Lajoie, and he has a chance of surpassing Nap's total if he plays 2-3 more years. I think those stats will carry more weight with the voters (the BBWA) than OPS+, Win Shares, WARP-3, RC/27, etc. most of which are foreign concepts to those voting. Voters will pay more attention to stats they are familiar with, regardless of what others think of their validity.

[mtortolero]

The only thing I was dismissing was the inclusion of international players in Cooperstown proper. To the contempt comment - I published a historical reference book and was praised by the Sport Journal in a book review for my extensive inclusion of international, female and Negro league players - something I might add most, if any, do not do.

I fully believe that it would be beneficial if the HOF actually had a wing for international players/leagues. I would love to see displays and computer compilations of say each major league's HOFers and their contributions - and brief league histories.

This way each league is represented with their hand-selected Hall of Famers. Not sure how it would be appropriate for Americans to personally be voting and hand-selecting a relatively few international players to honor in Cooperstown. Sounds like a mess - politically and ethnically. Isn't the knock against Americans already - that we sit in judgment and think we have the right to administer the world.

Much of this information is hard and expensive to get and essentially out of reach for the common fan. It would be nice to walk into Cooperstown or log on to their site and read info about Eiji Sawamura and numerous others.

What about recognize at least some merit for a player who was great playing winter baseball in the Caribean and later become an star in MLB? Here in Venezuela has played from Bob Gibson, Greg Maddux (as rookie he won everything here playing with Aguilas del Zulia), Newcombe, Rose (one year before being the NL Roy), Rice, Barry Bonds, Andre Dawson, Willy Horton (who won a Caribean Series after being hired as manager in the middle of the regular season ), Dave Parker (who played in 1977 winning the batting title with 415 avg. , one year before his NL MVP) and a long list of players (including negro leaguers).

[MadHatter]

As much as I might not want to admit it as a Red Sox fan... I think Jeter is in.

[White Knight]

Who do you think will get into the hall of fame as of now? the question isn't who you think should get in, but who will get in.

I would say the locks are:

- Greg Maddux
- Alex Rodriguez
- Ivan Rodriguez
- Randy Johnson
- Pedro Martinez
- Randy Johnson
- Tom Glavine
- Frank Thomas
- Ken Griffey Jr.
- Mike Piazza
- Mariano Rivera
- Trevor Hoffman
- Manny Ramirez
- Craig Biggio


Borderline hofers as of now:

- Derek Jeter
- Curt Schilling
- Jim Thome
- Vladimir Guerrero
- Chipper Jones
- Omar Vizquel??

Will probably get in the future:

- Albert Pujols
- Johan Santana

Have the numbers, but might not get in because of PED allegations:

- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Sammy Sosa
- Gary Sheffield

No shot:

- Kevin Brown
- Jason Giambi
- Juan Gonzalez
- Andy Pettitte

Am I missing anyone?

Jeter is not borderline, he's an absolute lock, one of the top 5 SS' (yeah, yeah, not defensively, I know) in history.

I also think Jorge Posada might be borderline. All depends if he can come close to last year's numbers.

[digglahhh]

I also think Jorge Posada might be borderline. All depends if he can come close to last year's numbers.

I think Posada will have a nice case when all is said and done. My gut feeling is that he doesn't get serious support, and becomes one of these guys that boards like ours favor. Over time, he'll earn a reputation as a bad omission. He'll be like Ted Simmons with popularity...

[AMAYSN 24]

Andruw Jones HOF'er?? Not sure about that...

[cavalier1968]

Similar Batters through Age 30

Compare Stats
Frank Robinson (857) *
Eddie Mathews (850) *
Johnny Bench (849) *
Ron Santo (840)
Al Kaline (836) *
Sammy Sosa (832)
Ken Griffey (832)
Ruben Sierra (829)
Juan Gonzalez (816)
Duke Snider (815)

Not bad company! Add in he is only 30......a fairly good bet to hit 600 homers...good fielder......I say lock if he keep playing:dance

Cav

[jalbright]

I think the biggest concern with Andruw Jones is whether he bounces back from last year's awful campaign. If he looks more like the Andruw of old, he's probably in good shape. If he continues more in the 2007 mode, his collapse may well doom his chances.

[STLCards2]

Similar Batters through Age 30

Compare Stats
Frank Robinson (857) *
Eddie Mathews (850) *
Johnny Bench (849) *
Ron Santo (840)
Al Kaline (836) *
Sammy Sosa (832)
Ken Griffey (832)
Ruben Sierra (829)
Juan Gonzalez (816)
Duke Snider (815)

Not bad company! Add in he is only 30......a fairly good bet to hit 600 homers...good fielder......I say lock if he keep playing:dance

Cav


But by age 30, the guys with asteriks after their names didn't hit a brick wall. I bet few of these guys would have made the HOF at 30. Jones was never a guy who took walks or hit for good averages. His HOf case is only based on great CF defense and HR power. If these things are almost gone or leaving like a jet plane at age 30, Jones will do nothing but hurt his HOF case more as he ages.

I am not saying there is no way that Jones makes it. Health and regaining his skills in the OF could be enough to get him there if he racks up the counting numbers. I like Jones, but he is certainly not a HOFer now. I would put Ichiro, Edmonds, and B.Williams (not to mention Berger and Murphy) in first before Jones at this point - and I wouldn't even say yes to all of those guys.

[Go get em Tigers]

Here's my list of who's in, who's probably in, who's on the right track, and who might be a darkhorse bet:

Who's in: Locks, barring a scandal such as steroids, betting on your own team etc..

Bagwell, Jeff; Biggio, Craig; Bonds, Barry; Clemens, Roger; Glavine, Tom; Griffey Jr., Ken; Hoffman, Trevor;
Jeter, Derek; Johnson, Randy; Maddux, Greg; Martinez, Pedro; Piazza, Mike; Ramirez, Manny
Rodriguez, Alex; Rodriguez, Ivan; Sheffield, Gary; Smoltz, John; Sosa, Sammy; Thomas, Frank

Who's probably in:
(adding to their stats will only help their cause)

Guerrero, Vladimir; Helton, Todd; Jones, Chipper; Kent, Jeff; Rivera, Mariano; Schilling, Curtis; Suzuki, Ichiro
Thome, Jim

On the right track for HOF, but need more years:

Cabrera, Miguel; Delgado, Carlos; Halladay, Roy; Jones, Andruw; Oswalt, Roy; Pujols, Albert; Renteria, Edgar
Santana, Johan; Suzuki, Ichiro; Tejada, Miguel; Zito, Barry

Darkhorses:

Edmonds, Jim; Gonzalez, Luis; Green, Shawn; Kendall, Jason; Mussina, Mike; Pettitte, Andy
Rogers, Kenny; Vizquel, Omar; Wagner, Billy;

[White Knight]

Here's my list of who's in, who's probably in, who's on the right track, and who might be a darkhorse bet:

Who's in: Locks, barring a scandal such as steroids, betting on your own team etc..

Bagwell, Jeff; Biggio, Craig; Bonds, Barry; Clemens, Roger; Glavine, Tom; Griffey Jr., Ken; Hoffman, Trevor;
Jeter, Derek; Johnson, Randy; Maddux, Greg; Martinez, Pedro; Piazza, Mike; Ramirez, Manny
Rodriguez, Alex; Rodriguez, Ivan; Sheffield, Gary; Smoltz, John; Sosa, Sammy; Thomas, Frank

Who's probably in:
(adding to their stats will only help their cause)

Guerrero, Vladimir; Helton, Todd; Jones, Chipper; Kent, Jeff; Rivera, Mariano; Schilling, Curtis; Suzuki, Ichiro
Thome, Jim

On the right track for HOF, but need more years:

Cabrera, Miguel; Delgado, Carlos; Halladay, Roy; Jones, Andruw; Oswalt, Roy; Pujols, Albert; Renteria, Edgar
Santana, Johan; Suzuki, Ichiro; Tejada, Miguel; Zito, Barry

Darkhorses:

Edmonds, Jim; Gonzalez, Luis; Green, Shawn; Kendall, Jason; Mussina, Mike; Pettitte, Andy
Rogers, Kenny; Vizquel, Omar; Wagner, Billy;

How can you possibly list Mariano Rivera as a "probably"? He's a first-ballet shoe-in, being the greatest closer in the history of the game. Why do you list Trevor Hoffman as a lock, but not Mo? Do you have him rate higher as a closer?

[Go get em Tigers]

How can you possibly list Mariano Rivera as a "probably"? He's a first-ballet shoe-in, being the greatest closer in the history of the game. Why do you list Trevor Hoffman as a lock, but not Mo? Do you have him rate higher as a closer?

Yeah, upon further review, it appears I may have short-changed Mariano a bit. It was only Hoffman's 524-443 save differential that made me refer to Hoffman as a lock and Rivera as one who need more time. (Lee Smith isn't in yet with 478 career saves). Mariano does have a clear ERA advantage. I admit, Rivera's in with the stats he has right now, and he may have a couple of good years left in his arm. Here's a comparison of their career stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp2.cgi?I=hoffmtr01:Trevor+Hoffman&st=career