The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 1 – The 1960’s

[Freakshow]

Welcome to the Ultimate Quest for Candidates (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=68815)! This thread will have the eighth poll in this project, choosing the best candidates for the Hall of Fame from the MLB stars of the 1960’s. You will be asked to vote for your top NINE (9) players. This ballot is larger (26) than earlier decades because the HOF Veterans Committee had only just begun correcting the oversights of the BBWAA when it was reformed in 2001; there’s still a lot of work to do. The poll will close five weeks after it opens.

I’m asking voters not to peek at the results of the voting until after they’ve cast their ballot. I would hope that voters are capable of independently assessing the candidates without worrying about whom the consensus is favoring.

The threads in this project will always be posted a few days before the poll is added. This is done in order to encourage research and discussion of the candidates. I believe (paraphrasing Socrates) that the unexamined ballot is not worth casting. This also gives you a little time to make the case for a candidate not listed who you think deserves to be on the ballot (although you should sign up as a consultant if you really want to be involved in this aspect of the project).

If someone wants to open a separate thread to focus on one of these candidates, go for it; we already see that a lot on this forum. All of these players are worthy of discussion, because the worst candidates here are on a par with the worst players in the Hall.

I expect that everyone is familiar with Baseball-Reference.com and Baseballprospectus.com. These are essential sites for researching a player’s statistical record. I’ve also inserted links to each player’s bio at the SABR Bioproject or Wikipedia.

We will be judging players by the same criteria that the Hall of Fame uses:

“voting shall be based upon the individual's record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game.”

So everything counts, their lifetime achievements on and off the field, along with their character and other intangibles.

Below are the players we think are the top 28 candidates whose careers centered in the 1960’s. We will need to decide which two of these to drop for the poll. Basic data are shown for each:

Pos BJ Player Name Win Shares WARP3 Car WS Adj Other
3 #15 Dick Allen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Allen) (344: 42-41-35) (92.8: 13.1-10.7-10.7) +2
9 #48 Felipe Alou (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felipe_Alou) (243: 31-28-25) (62.0: 10.9-8.3-7.1) +3 Mgr 13.1 yrs/1,033 wins
5 #12 Ken Boyer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Boyer) (294: 33-28-28) (106.8: 11.7-11.1-10.8) +15 military age 21-22
9 #38 Johnny Callison (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Callison)(243: 32-29-28) (78.7: 11.7-10.0-10.0) +2
3 #20 Norm Cash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norm_Cash) (317: 42-27-24) (92.9: 13.6-8.1-8.0) +2
9 #26 Rocky Colavito (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocky_Colavito)(279: 34-33-31) (75.3: 9.6-9.3-8.9) +6
8 #27 Willie Davis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Davis_%28baseball%29) (341: 26-26-26) (108.5: 9.5-8.4-8.4) +19 Japan age 37-38
8 #36 Curt Flood (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curt_Flood) (233: 27-26-25) (75.6: 8.5-7.7-7.6) +12 martyr
2 #12 Bill Freehan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Freehan) (269: 35-30-25) (74.0: 11.1-9.2-7.7) +1
6 #15 Jim Fregosi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Fregosi) (261: 33-28-28) (77.5: 9.7-9.3-9.2) +0 Mgr 13.7 yrs/1,028 wins
6 #30 Dick Groat (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Groat) (250: 31-26-21) (90.4: 12.3-9.2-7.9) +25 military age 22-23
2 #15 Elston Howard (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elston_Howard) (213: 32-29-28) (59.9: 9.1-8.5-8.3) +10 NeL; military age 22-23
7 #19 Frank Howard (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Howard_%28baseball%29) (299: 38-34-30) (70.2: 8.4-8.4-7.2) +2
1 #89 Larry Jackson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Jackson) (230: 25-22-22) (82.4: 8.8-8.5-7.5) +5
1 #65 Jim Kaat (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Kaat) (271: 26-22-22) (101.6: 9.9-9.6-9.3) +3 broadcaster
9 #28 Roger Maris (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Maris) (227: 36-33-25) (54.9: 10.1-8.3-6.0) +4
4 #22 Dick McAuliffe (http://bioproj.sabr.org/bioproj.cfm?a=v&v=l&bid=1321&pid=9057) (242: 28-27-26) (65.6: 8.5-8.1-7.3) +1
1 --- Lindy McDaniel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_McDaniel)(190: 26-19-15) (72.1: 9.1-7.1-6.7) +4
9 #21 Tony Oliva (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Oliva) (245: 33-30-28) (67.1: 8.6-8.5-8.2) +0
1 --- Camilo Pascual (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camilo_Pascual) (178: 25-23-22) (78.7: 11.9-9.4-9.3) +3
6/5 #32 Rico Petrocelli (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rico_Petrocelli)(206: 37-27-23) (73.8: 13.8-9.7-9.5) +1
8 #18 Vada Pinson (http://bioproj.sabr.org/bioproj.cfm?a=v&v=l&bid=27&pid=11282) (326: 34-31-28) (78.2: 8.6-8.2-8.0) +5
3 #27 Boog Powell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boog_Powell) (283: 31-29-27) (76.3: 9.0-8.5-8.4) +1
5 #6 Ron Santo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Santo) (326: 38-36-32) (119.7: 13.8-13.8-13.3) +2 broadcaster
2 #11 Joe Torre (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_torre) (316: 41-29-28) (104.8: 11.2-9.9-9.1) +1 Mgr 24.4 yrs/2,067 wins
3 #39 Bill White (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_White_%28first_baseman%29) (239: 27-26-24) (70.7: 8.3-8.2-8.1) +30 military age 23-24; broadcast; NL Pres
6 #19 Maury Wills (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maury_Wills) (255: 32-28-27) (81.8: 10.7-9.3-7.4) +2
8 #10 Jimmy Wynn (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_wynn) (307: 36-32-32) (87.8: 11.2-9.5-9.4) +2
Pos – primary position(s)
BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years (numbers in bold are increased for extra credit)
Other – Along with Torre, both Felipe Alou and Jim Fregosi were successful managers. Long-time broadcasters include Santo, Kaat and White. Extra credit for military service has been added to Boyer, Groat, E. Howard and White. Bill White has yet another “kicker”, serving as NL president for five years. Elston Howard also had his career hindered by his color, starting his career in the Negro leagues.

Some other things to be aware of:
1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
2) Win shares in seasons before 1961 AL and 1962 NL are increased to adjust them to a 162-game season, as are strike seasons 1972 and 1981.
3) You are free to credit players with minor league or foreign league play.
4) Can anyone make a good case for another pitcher?

[OleMissCub]

Santo's omission from the HOF grows more egregious by the minute. A 119 WARP3 at third base and you AREN'T in the HOF? Stupid.

[leecemark]

--First one of these where there are actually multiple candidates I firmly believe belong in Coopertown. Dick Allen has perhaps the best career and by far the best peak of this group. Ron Santo is the only player arguably amoung the top 5 ever at his position who is eligible for Cooperstown and not a member. Ken Boyer is probably top 10 at the same position (although if you count Allen and his class of slugging sometimes 3B's then Boyer would slide out). Bill Freehan isn't quite top 10 at catcher, but he is top 15 and an easy HoFer in my book. Joe Torre wasn't the catcher Freeehan was, but he was maybe a better player and his post playing career makes him a slam dunk choice.
--Thats five spots filled up without breaking a sweat and still a bunch of appealing candidates. Jimmy Wynn is probably a top 15 CFer and the best of his generation. Frank Howard was one of the great sluggers of all time, but circumstances - and horrible defense - bring his career up a little short. Jim Fregosi and Maury Wills are arguably the best 2 SS's (live ball divsion) outside Cooperstown. If Fregosi had been a better manager I might like the package. If Wills hadn't been an embarassingly bad one he might have gotten elected for real:eek:.
--Elston Howard would probably be a HoFer if he hadn't wasted half his prime backing up Yogi Berra. Vada Pinson has HoFish counting numbers. Tony Oliva has some very impressive Black Ink, although that is really the only area he comes close. Norm Cash's career numbers look tempting, but he really only had 1 real Hall of Fame season. Rocky Colavito didn't have the one amazing year, but he had a very nice run that almost gets him there. Willie davis has the 2nd most career WS of this grou, but doesn't come particularly close for me
--Jim Kaat had a very nice career and has the best shot of any of the available pitchers of making my ballot. I am not opposed to the idea of Kaat as a HoFer, although I'm not exactly for it either. Camilio Pascaul is kind of an obscure favorite of mine, but he is not a Hall of famer. Really the best pitchers of the 60s are all already in because their numbers look even better than they really were due to the conditions of the time. Its the hitters that got overlooked.

[Paul Wendt]

Another pitcher? I don't see the case for Lindy McDaniel. Among relievers I prefer Don McMahon and Stu Miller, at least, but none of them is in my own "top 26". You could put Wilbur Wood in the sixties by calendar time, but Jim Wynn would belong in the seventies.

I prefer Dick McAuliffe to Callison, Petrocelli, and White, at least.

Either White or Tim McCarver may be worthy in the eyes of someone who loves his off-field work.

--
What is the rationale for Curt Flood +12 win shares? Does it represent some fraction (less than one) of what he would have earned by reporting to the Phillies and playing out his career?

--
None of the players just named here should get any votes except by ample off-field credit, presumably for White or Flood.

In my opinion there should also be no votes for Jackson, Pascual, Colavito, Maris, Wills, and Groat. Maris, Wills, and Groat pass the fame test with ease but they have too much ground to make up as players.

--
Wynn, Boyer, Santo, Allen, Freehan, and Torre are in the Hall of Merit. There is moderate HOM support for Cash and Elston Howard; some support for Kaat, Oliva, and Frank Howard.

The middle group that I haven't mentioned is Davis, Pinson, Alou, Fregosi, and Powell. Along with White and Flood they may well get a few votes.

[Freakshow]

Another pitcher? I don't see the case for Lindy McDaniel. Among relievers I prefer Don McMahon and Stu Miller, at least, but none of them is in my own "top 26". You could put Wilbur Wood in the sixties by calendar time, but Jim Wynn would belong in the seventies.
Lindy is one of four relievers with 100 relief wins (#2 with 119); the other three (Wilhelm, Fingers, Gossage) are in the HOF. He is one of four relievers with 1500 relief IP, the other three (same as above) are in the HOF. Easily the most career value of the RP candidates here, he's only outpeaked by Radatz, I think.

As for decade placement, here's what I say in the introductory thread:

Players will generally appear in the decade in which they accrued the most value; in a few cases they will be moved to the decade in which their career actually centered or where they had more of their prime seasons.
I prefer Dick McAuliffe to Callison, Petrocelli, and White, at least.
McAuliffe is close, but has no "kickers" that I can see. If he'd stayed a shortstop he'd look a lot better. What's the argument for him?
Either White or Tim McCarver may be worthy in the eyes of someone who loves his off-field work.
I think being a long-time broadcaster is worth a small bump on the margins. I don't see McCarver's career as being too close to the ballot, though.
What is the rationale for Curt Flood +12 win shares? Does it represent some fraction (less than one) of what he would have earned by reporting to the Phillies and playing out his career?
It's the PTB (Powers That Be) Clause again. In his fight against the PTB, I thought he deserved some credit for 1970, at least. I gave him 10 WS, 3.3 WARP3. He didn't stay in shape, and flopped in 1971 and his career was over.
In my opinion there should also be no votes for Jackson, Pascual, Colavito, Maris, Wills, and Groat. Maris, Wills, and Groat pass the fame test with ease but they have too much ground to make up as players.
"Fame test"? Should that be a criteria we're considering?
Wynn, Boyer, Santo, Allen, Freehan, and Torre are in the Hall of Merit. There is moderate HOM support for Cash and Elston Howard.
I gave Elston Howard PTB credit for 1954, 7 WS, 2.2 WARP3. There is a good argument that it should be a LOT more. If he had been born even five years later, his career would probably have at least three more years to it. He wouldn't have started with 2.5 Negro league years; he probably would not have missed two years to military service; in a more open market for black players, he may not have chosen the talent-laden Yankees to sign with, but rather a team with a much faster track to the majors.

[leecemark]

--McAuliffe was kind of a SS. He was the starting All Star SS for the AL in 65-66. He wasn't a very good SS though and probably should have been moved to 2B sooner. He was the best hitting MIF of the 60s though.

[leecemark]

--Lindy McDaniel was not a great pitcher. He pitched 21 years and had 2 truley outstanding seasons 10 years apart. He had a number of other good seasons, but never more than 2 in a row, mixed in with some real clunkers. He'd be my first drop from this list.

[Freakshow]

--Lindy McDaniel was not a great pitcher. He pitched 21 years and had 2 truley outstanding seasons 10 years apart. He had a number of other good seasons, but never more than 2 in a row, mixed in with some real clunkers. He'd be my first drop from this list.
Then who do you see as the top relief pitcher candidate from this decade? Here is a list of possibilities:

Stu Miller
Ron Perranoski
Dick Radatz
Roy Face
Don McMahon
Ted Abernathy

[Freakshow]

--McAuliffe ... was the best hitting MIF of the 60s though.
Petrocelli, Morgan and Fregosi would argue with you on that.

[jjpm74]

Then who do you see as the top relief pitcher candidate from this decade? Here is a list of possibilities:

Stu Miller
Ron Perranoski
Dick Radatz
Roy Face
Don McMahon
Ted Abernathy

Of those guys, I'd put Roy Face as the leader of the pack. He was the first relief pitcher to record more than 1 20 save seasons and was one of the first real closers in the game. I wouldn't remove McDaniel to that list, but Face at least deserves to be in his company.

[leecemark]

--Each of them had seasons where they were better than McAuliffe. None had as many though. McAuliffe was a good hitter the entire decade.

[leecemark]

Then who do you see as the top relief pitcher candidate from this decade? Here is a list of possibilities:

Stu Miller
Ron Perranoski
Dick Radatz
Roy Face
Don McMahon
Ted Abernathy


--McMahon was a very unappreciated pitcher. I'd say he was the best across the decade. He seems like a guy who would have really done well in the modern closers role. He isn't a Hall of Famer though. Miller and Perranoski I'd have to take ahead of McDaniel for the 60s, although McDaniel may have had the better career. Radatz had a monster:) peak, nut it didn't last nearly long enough to be considered. Abernathy had a career similar to McDaniel in that he could be great one year and awfull the next.
--Face I'm not sure if he is over or under rated:noidea. If you think he was a Hall of Famer then overrated. If you totally leave him out of the equation then probbaly underrated. Wilhelm is the only one of the first generation of career relievers who made enough of a mark to even reach the borderline for me (he is easily over it), but I think you've done a pretty good job of identifying the best of them.

[Freakshow]

--Each of them had seasons where they were better than McAuliffe. None had as many though. McAuliffe was a good hitter the entire decade.
Eh. Semantics. "Good hitter"? Well, above average. Really a good hitter for 3.5 seasons, 1966-69.

[Freakshow]

--McMahon was a very unappreciated pitcher. I'd say he was the best across the decade. He seems like a guy who would have really done well in the modern closers role. He isn't a Hall of Famer though. Miller and Perranoski I'd have to take ahead of McDaniel for the 60s, although McDaniel may have had the better career. Radatz had a monster:) peak, nut it didn't last nearly long enough to be considered. Abernathy had a career similar to McDaniel in that he could be great one year and awfull the next.
--Face I'm not sure if he is over or under rated:noidea. If you think he was a Hall of Famer then overrated. If you totally leave him out of the equation then probbaly underrated. Wilhelm is the only one of the first generation of career relievers who made enough of a mark to even reach the borderline for me (he is easily over it), but I think you've done a pretty good job of identifying the best of them.
Yeah, we pretty much agree on the relievers. The BBWAA liked Face the most, but that was probably due to the 18-1 season more than anything.

I still see the overall numbers as favoring McDaniel, but there's no denying he ran hot and cold. Take his four big years (59,60,70,73) and he looks pretty studly. But those years are 40% of his value. The other 17 years totaled 115 AWS and 42.5 WARP3.

The main issue is, should McDaniel be the guy bumped?

[leecemark]

Eh. Semantics. "Good hitter"? Well, above average. Really a good hitter for 3.5 seasons, 1966-69.

--Mac was a good hitter for a middle infielder from 61-64. From 65-69 he was a good enough hitter you could have stuck him in LF and still had a plus player and he was a terrific hitter for a MIF. Then from 70-73 he went back to being a good hitter for a MIF. If he had been a great glove I'd support him for the Hall, but he was more like a guy who could handle the IF rather than one who stood out defensively. Nice utility man on the all time Tigers team, but not a serious candidate for Cooperstown. I would take him ahead of several men who made your list though.

[Freakshow]

I would take him ahead of several men who made your list though.
You're not the only one promoting McAuliffe. I'll add him to the list tonight.

I'm planning on a 26-man ballot. If we accept Mac, what two players from the list should be dropped for the ballot?

[baseballPAP]

A few thoughts....
Anyone who can't be considered even top 30 at their position shouldn't be in the HOF....That eliminates Alou, Callison, Flood, Bill White and Petrocelli according to James....and also Maris, Groat, Powell, Wills, Colavito and Davis from my own lists(each of them is stuck in the 30's on my own personal lists).

This leaves 16 players, of them only 4 pitchers. I don't see a vote for Pascual or Jackson coming from anyone with these guys to choose from, and neither would hit my own top 75 for pitchers. McDaniel has at least a claim to a spot on the list here I think, though no shot at getting a vote from me. Kaat absolutely belongs here, though will still have a tough time getting any support.....now down to 14.

A couple of utility guys who have outside credits due to them....Allen negative ones, and Torre positive. 2 underrated guys at the hot corner, Boyer and Santo. A couple of guys named Howard. 2 quiet under the radar types in Wynn and Pinson. The aforementioned pair of hurlers, Kaat and McDaniel. A pair of sluggers in Cash and Oliva, underrated for different reasons. And finally, the epitimy of no credit, Freehan and Fregosi.

OK...14 down to 6....
First the obvious ones....say goodbye to McDaniel and Elston Howard. OK, now it gets tougher. Fregosi didn't do it long enough, and sadly neither did Oliva. Boyer was really good for about 3 years, then a group of about 6 or so good years, then his resume turns to summer jobs at Burger King...nothing that matters. Kaat was close to the same as Boyer, just stretched out over 4 decades...close, but not enough. Jimmy Wynn was good, even great at times, but overall lack of counting stats and eye-popping numbers makes him a tough sell. Down to 7. Now looking at it from the other end, Santo is a lock, and should have been in years ago. Same for Allen, maybe the best player outside the hall. Torre, with his time behind the plate AND at 3B, a bunch of managing credit and a solid stick...oh, and an MVP award...is a lock. Freehan is the best catcher not in already, thats 4. 3 guys left...Frank Howard, Vada Pinson and Norm Cash. Cash always falls just short for me, because when I look at his career WITHOUT '61, he is just a solid hitting 1Bman who did it for about 15 or 20 years. No other monster years, although there where some very good ones in there. Howard was a beast, and his early years in the cavern in LA are probably the only thing keeping him out of Cooperstown...he gets my vote. Pinson was done putting up great seasons before he was 28....

My 6 are....drum roll please....
Ron Santo
Dick Allen
Joe Torre
Bill Freehan
Frank Howard
Norm Cash

I support the first 5 for Cooperstown....

[Freakshow]

My 6 are....drum roll please....
Ron Santo
Dick Allen
Joe Torre
Bill Freehan
Frank Howard
Norm Cash

I should emphasize that in order to keep the quality consistent with previous elections, the ballot is expanded (even more for the 1970's; more yet for the 1980's). You will be asked to vote for :party:NINE (9):nod: players in the 1960's poll.

[leecemark]

Yeah, we pretty much agree on the relievers. The BBWAA liked Face the most, but that was probably due to the 18-1 season more than anything.

I still see the overall numbers as favoring McDaniel, but there's no denying he ran hot and cold. Take his four big years (59,60,70,73) and he looks pretty studly. But those years are 40% of his value. The other 17 years totaled 115 AWS and 42.5 WARP3.

The main issue is, should McDaniel be the guy bumped?

--McDaniel, Pascaul, Alou and Callison are all WAY below the grey area IMO. Any or all of them could be dropped and are unlikley to get any votes if they remain.

[DoubleX]

I feel like I've missed a bunch of these polls. Well here are my 9:

1) Ron Santo
2) Dick Allen
3) Joe Torre
4) Bill Freehan
5) Jim Kaat
6) Jimmy Wynn
7) Ken Boyer
8) Frank Howard
9) Norm Cash

I'd support up to Torre for the Hall, Freehan is right on the border for me.

[Freakshow]

I feel like I've missed a bunch of these polls.
I had a month break after the 1950's poll went up. It's too late to get in that one, but the 1890's poll is still open and could use a few more voters.

[baseballPAP]

I should emphasize that in order to keep the quality consistent with previous elections, the ballot is expanded (even more for the 1970's; more yet for the 1980's). You will be asked to vote for :party:NINE (9):nod: players in the 1960's poll.

Say hello Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn and Jim Kaat :)

[Brad Harris]

Probables:
Allen
Boyer
Oliva
Santo
Torre
Wynn

[leecemark]

Huge Ommissions
1) Allen
2) Santo
Yes, I'd vote for them
3) Freehan
4) Torre
5) Boyer
Borderline, make this ballot
6) Wynn
7) Kaat
8) Cash
9) F. Howard

Borderline, but off ballot
Oliva, E. Howard, Pinson, Wills, Fregosi

The rest are below the grey area for me by varying degrees. Some might be in if they'd been used different or caught a few breaks, but their actual careers don't quite get them into the borderline.

[Paul Wendt]

Hey, all, the 1890s poll is still open. Make your case for Cupid Childs, Dummy Hoy, Lave Cross, or Billy Nash. --or skip your case but cast your vote.
--
Lindy is one of four relievers . . .

On the relief pitchers leecemark and I are in agreement. I simply overlooked Radatz (before my time so I didn't consider him). As a consultant I wrote privately, essentially, that "McMahon and Miller in that order, maybe Perranoski and Abernathy" rank ahead of McDaniel. A couple days ago based on memory I looked up those four, Jim Brewer, John Hiller, and Wilbur Wood. Brewer is a bit below Abernathy; Hiller and Wood should be considered for the 1970s. Face I put in the 1950s without checking. For players whom I remember I tend to underestimate the portions of their careers that fall in the later decade.

McAuliffe is close, but has no "kickers" that I can see. If he'd stayed a shortstop he'd look a lot better. What's the argument for him?

the simplest case for a ballot spot may be direct comparison with Petrocelli. That may be moot but this remains relevant to the final ballot composition. People consider Petrocelli a shortstop but he played only 50 games more at short than at third, 100 games more than McAuliffe played at short. Was Petrocelli a good shortstop? (Around here he would get credit as a shortstop but also as a commentator, so let that be.)
I think being a long-time broadcaster is worth a small bump on the margins. I don't see McCarver's career as being too close to the ballot, though.
OK. I was surprised to see how little work in so many seasons. Did Steve Carlton know what he was talking about in getting McCarver as personal catcher? Back in the day, we in greater PHI presumed that Carlton's judgment was sound.

I suppose Dave Johnson falls in the same category as a player & manager. He was a fine player but not good enough long enough to add much to the case that his greatest fans as a manager will make.
It's the PTB (Powers That Be) Clause again. In his fight against the PTB, I thought [Flood] deserved some credit for 1970, at least. I gave him 10 WS, 3.3 WARP3. He didn't stay in shape, and flopped in 1971 and his career was over.
OK. 10 or 12 WS seems ungenerous to me but I see (Elston Howard) that you aren't making a high estimate with warning sirens, more like a central estimate.

Flood gets a couple win shares and Groat gets several for the 154-game season, I suppose.
>>
In my opinion there should also be no votes for Jackson, Pascual, Colavito, Maris, Wills, and Groat. Maris, Wills, and Groat pass the fame test with ease but they have too much ground to make up as players.
<<

"Fame test"? Should that be a criteria we're considering?

Fame is one of the kickers that McAuliffe doesn't have. On the margin we consider likely support --not electability, which no one on the Ultimate ballot margin has, but votability, the ability to attract a few votes. Anyway, this was only a way of saying that I think these players do belong on the ballot. Beyond McDaniel, who drops from 27 to make the target 26, Callison, Petrocelli and White seem to be "on the bubble" if you add McAuliffe --in that order, if cornered: Callison is second to McDaniel. Only those three, although I may personally rank McA above the other six, Jackson to Groat.

Bill White has momentum, of course: Jackie Robinson (player), Frank Robinson (field manager), Hank Aaron (club Pres or general manager?), Bill White (league Pres).

[Paul Wendt]

Whether Dick McAuliffe is #18 as I judge today or #24 as Freakshow may come around, he should get zero votes.

How I see it now:

they should advance twice or it reflects poorly on us (4)
Wynn, Santo, Allen, Torre (player & manager)

contenders; Pinson promoted since last night; I expect to vote for five (8)
Boyer, Freehan, Cash, Elston Howard, Kaat, Oliva, Frank Howard, Pinson

I see the case for a vote; a shutout is unlikely if we get a good turnout; can I be persuaded? (6)
Davis, Alou, Fregosi, Powell, Flood, White

(I personally rank Dick McAuliffe a bit higher than this but I don't see any case for a vote)

I don't see the case (6)
Maris, Wills, Groat, Jackson, Pascual, Colavito

(I interpret BBWAA support for Maris and Wills not as misguided evaluation of their careers but as support for honoring some seasons. Compare BBWAA support for Don Larsen and Johnny Vandermeer, support for honoring some games.)

best candidates for demotion (3)
Petrocelli
Callison
McDaniel

[jjpm74]

Yeah, we pretty much agree on the relievers. The BBWAA liked Face the most, but that was probably due to the 18-1 season more than anything.

I still see the overall numbers as favoring McDaniel, but there's no denying he ran hot and cold. Take his four big years (59,60,70,73) and he looks pretty studly. But those years are 40% of his value. The other 17 years totaled 115 AWS and 42.5 WARP3.

The main issue is, should McDaniel be the guy bumped?

I would bump McDaniel in favor of Face even though neither one is HOF worthy. In addition to what you already stated, Face gets the edge in the HOF monitor. Career-wise, both were very similar.

I'm glad you're going to 9 on this list. 6 would be really tough for me as there are three players I'd put in my top 10 overall of players not in the HOF.

[Freakshow]

I would bump McDaniel in favor of Face even though neither one is HOF worthy. In addition to what you already stated, Face gets the edge in the HOF monitor. Career-wise, both were very similar.

I'm glad you're going to 9 on this list. 6 would be really tough for me as there are three players I'd put in my top 10 overall of players not in the HOF.
Comparing McDaniel/Face, Career: Top 5 Years

Adjusted Win Shares
McDl 190: 26-19-15-15-15
Face 143: 20-18-16-13-12

WARP3
McDl 72.1: 9.1-7.1-6.7-6.7-5.0
Face 58.1: 7.0-6.9-6.7-6.4-4.6

Your guy Face has no discernible edge over McDaniel.

[Freakshow]

I said: It's the PTB (Powers That Be) Clause again. In his fight against the PTB, I thought [Flood] deserved some credit for 1970, at least. I gave him 10 WS, 3.3 WARP3. He didn't stay in shape, and flopped in 1971 and his career was over.

Paul responded:
OK. 10 or 12 WS seems ungenerous to me but I see (Elston Howard) that you aren't making a high estimate with warning sirens, more like a central estimate.

Flood gets a couple win shares and Groat gets several for the 154-game season, I suppose.

That's right. My projections are just that - my projections. Voters should make up their own minds, but where I give extra credit, it's trying to tell voters that there is some credit that ought to be given; how much is up to you.

I gave Flood 10 WS for 1969 and 2 for the 154-game schedule 1958-61. For someone who sees Flood as entirely victimized by the PTB, you'd want to project the rest of his career after 1969 as it would be expected to progress. That would probably get him over 300 career win shares. It would be a Willie Davis II career.

Elston Howard I discussed above. He is probably due a lot more credit than I've given him. But he didn't quite hit the ground running when he finally did make the majors, so I'm taking the conservative tack that he could have been a late bloomer. Certainly, the Yankees decision to make him a catcher hurt his career, but there's tons of guys similarly (mis?)handled throughout history.

[jjpm74]

Comparing McDaniel/Face, Career: Top 5 Years

Adjusted Win Shares
McDl 190: 26-19-15-15-15
Face 143: 20-18-16-13-12

WARP3
McDl 72.1: 9.1-7.1-6.7-6.7-5.0
Face 58.1: 7.0-6.9-6.7-6.4-4.6

Your guy Face has no discernible edge over McDaniel.

Either way, McDaniel is a primary candidate to cut. I can't see anyone making a case for him or voting for him with a group as strong as this one.

I'm not sure who'd be gunning for Powell, Petrocelli, L. Jackson or Callison either.

[Freakshow]

Either way, McDaniel is a primary candidate to cut. I can't see anyone making a case for him or voting for him with a group as strong as this one.

I'm not sure who'd be gunning for Powell, Petrocelli, L. Jackson or Callison either.
Sure, but it just seems to me that the top relief pitcher candidate would deserve a seat at the table.

In any case, the pertinent question here is Which Two? There's 28 names on the board and 26 spots on the ballot.

Also, does anyone want to make a case for another starting pitcher? Jim Perry, Sam McDowell, Claude Osteen are some names we've barely touched upon. If you believe, as I do, that win shares shortchanges modern starters (especially NL starters in this era) do certain guys look more viable?

[jjpm74]

Sure, but it just seems to me that the top relief pitcher candidate would deserve a seat at the table.

In any case, the pertinent question here is Which Two? There's 28 names on the board and 26 spots on the ballot.

Also, does anyone want to make a case for another starting pitcher? Jim Perry, Sam McDowell, Claude Osteen are some names we've barely touched upon. If you believe, as I do, that win shares shortchanges modern starters (especially NL starters in this era) do certain guys look more viable?

Just looking at traditional statistics and discounting win shares, Jim Perry looks a lot better than both Pascual and Jackson.

If you're looking to cut 2 from the current 28 but still want to leave 1 relief pitcher on the ballot, Petrocelli and Callison look to be the weakest of the lot. If you wanted to add Jim Perry (which I can see a case being made for), I can't see how anyone would make a case for Pascual or Jackson.

[leecemark]

Sure, but it just seems to me that the top relief pitcher candidate would deserve a seat at the table.

In any case, the pertinent question here is Which Two? There's 28 names on the board and 26 spots on the ballot.

Also, does anyone want to make a case for another starting pitcher? Jim Perry, Sam McDowell, Claude Osteen are some names we've barely touched upon. If you believe, as I do, that win shares shortchanges modern starters (especially NL starters in this era) do certain guys look more viable?

--Perry really didn't establish himself as a starting pitcher until 1969. He probably should have and might have a marginal argument for Cooperstown if he had, but his actual career doesn't have much case for either peak or career. Sam McDowell did have a few great years and was almost certainly a Hall of Fame talent, but comes up well short in his ability to consistently deliver results equal to that talent. Osteen was a pretty good pitcher for a pretty long time. He was never a great one though and didn't have the staying power of similar type pitchers who reach the borderline - such as Kaat or John. For that matter his peak wasn't as good either.
--There were quite a few 60s pitchers who had part of a Hall of Fame career, but couldn't sustain it (of course thats true of any decade - it is far more difficult for a pitcher to sustain their best level of play than a position player). McDowell may not even be the best of that group. Dean Chance and Gary Peters had several seasons as good and probably better than McDowell. Perhaps Joe Horlen would also belong in that group.

[Freakshow]

Just to clarify: when I say "make a case for" I mean a case for being included on the ballot, not so much a case for being a viable hall of famer.

Round 1 is The Big Net that includes all of the HOVG players and then some, anyone who might have a case for the Hall. Basically, I want the 250 best candidates out there to be in the first round polls. For Round 2, I want the best 100 candidates; for Round 3, the best 45. This ideal is slightly compromised by a desire for era representation.

These decade lists will be used for other purposes in the future. So I'm making every attempt to get them right.

[Paul Wendt]

--Perry really didn't establish himself as a starting pitcher until 1969. He probably should have and might have a marginal argument for Cooperstown if he had, but his actual career doesn't have much case for either peak or career.

Because of the unusual career path Perry is more interesting than the others. He generated more Hall of Merit discussion (not much but more than zero).

There were quite a few 60s pitchers who had part of a Hall of Fame career, but couldn't sustain it (of course thats true of any decade - it is far more difficult for a pitcher to sustain their best level of play than a position player). McDowell may not even be the best of that group. Dean Chance and Gary Peters had several seasons as good and probably better than McDowell. Perhaps Joe Horlen would also belong in that group.

The best pitchers crashed and burned as some say. Jim Maloney and the Chisox are the first ones I think of. The Chisox: Gary Peters, Joel Horlen, Juan Pizzaro). At baseball-reference I see that none of them ever pitched a lot of innings, as Chance did. All five finished with about 2000 innings.

Jackson, Pascual, and Milt Pappas pitched about 3000 innings, all beginning in the mid-1950s.
Pappas did it roughly 15@200 innings --221 innings his third best in 16 seasons as a regular starting pitcher, age 19! to 34. Ten straight seasons with 12-16 wins. Everyone else named here was better than Pappas for 3 to 8 seasons, Pizzaro to Jackson.

[Paul Wendt]

FYI,
The players highest ranked by Bill James who are not in the Hall of Fame and not on this preliminary ballot are four catchers (Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Reds):
22 Tim McCarver
26 Tom Haller
27 John Roseboro
39 Ed Bailey
Next and the highest-ranked non-catcher is Don Buford, #41 at left field. Tony Taylor #47 at second base is the only other in the forties.

These rankings are from the NewBJHBA, scope roughly major leagues 1876-2001, depth 125 at eight positions but only 100 at pitcher so it isn't much use here for pitchers.

[Freakshow]

FYI,
The players highest ranked by Bill James who are not in the Hall of Fame and not on this preliminary ballot are four catchers (Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Reds):
22 Tim McCarver
26 Tom Haller
27 John Roseboro
39 Ed Bailey
Next and the highest-ranked non-catcher is Don Buford, #41 at left field. Tony Taylor #47 at second base is the only other in the forties.

These rankings are from the NewBJHBA, scope roughly major leagues 1876-2001, depth 125 at eight positions but only 100 at pitcher so it isn't much use here for pitchers.
Note that the 3 catchers on the ballot are listed #11, #12, #15 by James. After that, his catcher rankings are a bit screwy. McCarver is actually ranked #24; his one great year carries outsize weight, apparently. He's followed by the immortal Darren Daulton at #25. In addition, James clearly gives no consideration to catcher workload standards for a particular era.

[Freakshow]

The poll has been added to this thread. It will be open for five weeks.

Two players were cut from the list above: Pascual and Petrocelli. Thanks for all the input in deciding the last few ballot spots.

Also, in a few days I'll post the first thread for Round 2. We need to determine the three at-large candidates that will make the ballot for the 1910s-1920s ballot.

[Brad Harris]

I accidentally voted for 10. Please discount/remove my vote for Frank Howard. Thank you.

[dgarza]

1. Dick Allen
2. Ron Santo
3. Tony Oliva
4. Ken Boyer
5. Joe Torre
6. Rocky Colavito
7. Vada Pinson
8. Frank Howard
9. Jim Kaat

[Brad Harris]

...the immortal Darren Daulton...

Back in school, a dorm neighbor was from Philadelphia. I never thought I'd ever hear another human being (besides Paul) use that phrase. That made my day. LOL

[Paul Wendt]

Here they arranged by primary fielding position and by lastname within position.
LF CF RF
Howard Davis Alou
Flood Callison
Pinson Colavito
Wynn Maris
Oliva

3B SS 2B 1B
Boyer Fregosi McAulif Allen
Santo Groat Cash
Wills Powell
White
SP RP
Jackson McDaniel
Kaat

C
Freehan
Howard
Torre

McAuliffe, Allen, and Alou, at least, played a few seasons at more difficult fielding positions, SS, 3B, and CF. Wynn and Torre played several seasons at easier positions, LF/RF and 3B/1B.
McDaniel played a couple of seasons in a more difficult role, Kaat several seasons in an easier role. :)

[Paul Wendt]

percent support in BBWAA elections (maximum)
47.19 Tony Oliva
43.12 Ron Santo
42.99 Roger Maris
40.64 Maury Wills
29.48 Jim Kaat
25.46 Ken Boyer
22.19 Joe Torre
20.69 Elston Howard
18.89 Dick Allen
15.65 Vada Pinson
15.07 Curt Flood

1.842 Dick Groat
1.558 Norm Cash
1.388 Frank Howard
1.333 Boog Powell
0.990 Jim Fregosi
0.779 Felipe Alou
0.721 Lindy McDaniel
0.547 Rocky Colavito
0.480 Bill Freehan
0.231 Johnny Callison

0(zero) Willie Davis, Jim Wynn, Dick McAuliffe, Bill White, Larry Jackson

[Paul Wendt]

I thought this was difficult but there is a remarkable degree of agreement on the first nine.

I voted for the nine in bold just above.
The BBWAA support for Elston Howard is remarkable, ten times what I would have guessed.
Does it show some "forgiveness" concerning his short career because he played behind Yogi Berra?

[Freakshow]

I thought this was difficult but there is a remarkable degree of agreement on the first nine.

I voted for the nine in bold just above.
The BBWAA support for Elston Howard is remarkable, ten times what I would have guessed.
Does it show some "forgiveness" concerning his short career because he played behind Yogi Berra?
Well, he did win the MVP, too. Elston's big year in support was 1981, the year they gave Munson early eligibility. (Funny how that works; an attention effect.) Howard's next best support was only 14%. There was a general feeling among the voters that Howard was the better player. Munson also would never match his 1981 support of 15%; that was the only time he reached 10% from the BBWAA.

On another topic, the list of 1880's candidates has been sent to the ballot consultants.

[Freakshow]

Only two more days until this poll closes. Hopefully we'll get a few more voters to give us their Top 9 candidates from the 1960's

Remember, your vote in the final round will be weighted, depending on how often you participated in these early round polls.,

[Paul Wendt]

On another topic, the list of 1880's candidates has been sent to the ballot consultants.

That is 1970's.
The 1880's round one election is underway and now listed on the first page of the directory. I just voted, only the 13th to do so.

[Freakshow]

This poll has now closed. With 24 voters weighing in, there are nine players assured of being on the ballot in Round 2, the best Hall of Fame Candidates from the 1960's:

Dick Allen
Ken Boyer
Bill Freehan
Frank Howard
Jim Kaat
Tony Oliva
Ron Santo
Joe Torre
Jim Wynn

These nine will be combined with the top six from the 1950's poll, plus three at-large spots.

These four players have earned consideration for an at-large spot on the ballot in Round 2:

Norm Cash
Elston Howard
Vada Pinson
Maury Wills

Two voters completed their short ballots via PM. To the tally above there should be votes added for Allen, Boyer, Fregosi, E. Howard, F. Howard, Kaat, Santo and Torre. Classic's vote for F. Howard should also be removed. This makes Santo the first player in the 8 polls to receive 100% voter support. Here are the official results of the 1960's poll:

Advances to Rd. 2 Ballots Percent
Ron Santo 24 100.0%
Joe Torre 22 91.7%
Dick Allen 21 87.5%
Ken Boyer 20 83.3%
Jim Kaat 18 75.0%
Bill Freehan 17 70.8%
Jim Wynn 14 58.3%
Frank Howard 13 54.2%
Tony Oliva 13 54.2%
At-large Candidates
Maury Wills 9 37.5%
Vada Pinson 8 33.3%
Norm Cash 7 29.2%
Elston Howard 6 25.0%
Also-Ran
Felipe Alou 4 16.7%
Curt Flood 4 16.7%
Rocky Colavito 3 12.5%
Roger Maris 3 12.5%
Boog Powell 3 12.5%
Willie Davis 2 8.3%
Jim Fregosi 2 8.3%
Dick Groat 2 8.3%
Bill White 1 4.2%
Johnny Callison 0 0.0%
Larry Jackson 0 0.0%
Dick McAuliffe 0 0.0%
Lindy McDaniel 0 0.0%

[Paul Wendt]

This poll has now closed. With 24 voters weighing in, there are nine players assured of being on the ballot in Round 2, the best Hall of Fame Candidates from the 1960's:
. . .

. . . This makes Santo the first player in the 8 polls to receive 100% voter support.

Congratulations to Ron Santo.

Nine was the right number of winners with this slate and this electorate. All of the "winners" reaped more than 50% support with a strong margin over the runners up.

From one perspective, our previous polls, that seems incredible. On the other hand the BBWAA found a sharp demarcation between 15% and 2%. See a few panels above.