Willie Davis

[Cowtipper]

Over 18 years in the majors, Willie Davis collected 2561 hits, 395 doubles, 138 triples, 182 homers and 398 stolen bases. His batting average was .279. He was twice an All-Star and a three time Gold Glove winner. He ranks 42nd all time in power/speed number, 67th all time in triples, 77th all time in hits, 67th all time in stolen bases, 35th all time in sacrifice flies, and 53rd all time in at-bats. He was considered one of the fastest, if not the fastest, man in the 1960s.

Although his statistics don't look overwhelmingly wonderful, one must remember that he played a large chunk of his career in the second dead ball era.

He is statistically similar to Hall of Famer Enos Slaughter.

So, should Willie Davis be in the Hall of Fame?

[KCGHOST]

Willie played a long time but was strictly average at the plate. A below average OBP for a lead-off guy is not a ringing endorsement. He was a good base stealer, a fabulous base runner, and an outstanding CF. Not enough for me to endorse him, but he was a very good player.

[Paul Wendt]

He is third all-time in CF games, far behind Mays and Speaker.

[baseballPAP]

Sorry Willie...not until it is renamed the Hall of the Pretty Good.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Willie played a long time but was strictly average at the plate. A below average OBP for a lead-off guy is not a ringing endorsement. He was a good base stealer, a fabulous base runner, and an outstanding CF. Not enough for me to endorse him, but he was a very good player.

Davis wasn't always a leadoff hitter. While Maury Wills was on the Dodgers, Davis was often the #3 hitter, behind the cleanup man, Tommy Davis. Willie didn't become a leadoff guy until Wills left the Dodgers. He did better in that role, but he never learned how to walk.

Had Willie played in a different era, where he would have been encouraged to walk more, he may have developed more plate discipline, but that's a hypothetical. It didn't happen.

[jalbright]

He is statistically similar to Hall of Famer Enos Slaughter.

This is one of the times the similarity score lies. Enos had a 123 OPS+ while Willie had a 106 in the same metric. Enos probably would have scored higher had he not lost three prime years to military service.

Willie's not good enough to be considered great. In fact, he had precisely one season at or above Slaughter's career average in OPS+.

[Freakshow]

Willie is one of the more intriguing candidates from the batch of 1960's candidates. I'll try to have the Ultimate Candidates thread up tonight.

As Bill James pointed out, he was an excellent example of a player in the wrong place at the wrong time. Dodger Stadium in the 1960's was a notorious pitcher's park. I don't think Willie adapted well to the large strike zone either, as his performance at ages 29-34 (1969-74) is much better than he did at ages 23-28 (1963-68). His only really good year in the earlier span is 1964.

Davis made a tactical error late in his career re his HOF chances. He played in Japan at ages 37-38. He had a shot at 3000 hits before he left; he probably would have made more effort to reach the milestone if he had stayed and gotten close to it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Willie is one of the more intriguing candidates from the batch of 1960's candidates. I'll try to have the Ultimate Candidates thread up tonight.

As Bill James pointed out, he was an excellent example of a player in the wrong place at the wrong time. Dodger Stadium in the 1960's was a notorious pitcher's park. I don't think Willie adapted well to the large strike zone either, as his performance at ages 29-34 (1969-74) is much better than he did at ages 23-28 (1963-68). His only really good year in the earlier span is 1964.

Davis made a tactical error late in his career re his HOF chances. He played in Japan at ages 37-38. He had a shot at 3000 hits before he left; he probably would have made more effort to reach the milestone if he had stayed and gotten close to it.

Davis was 453 hits away from 3,000 when he went to Japan. He was only 37 when he went to Japan, but he was already in decline. He may well have landed a regular CF job with an expansion team (Seattle or Toronto), in which case he MAY have gotten around 300 of those hits, but given that he was toast at age 39, 150 hits would have been a lot of hits.

Willie was the kind of guy who needed to get 3,000 hits to make the HOF, but he only had Doc Cramer talent. He was sort of destined to be the kind of player that would be one of those contending for the title of having the most career hits, yet be outside the HOF. He's a guy who would have made the HOF if he had eked out 3,000 hits; they would not have turned him down. And he came surprisingly close.

But in a way, his closeness was an illusion. It was like the doomed polar expedition of Captain Scott in 1912, where Scott and his crew perished incredibly near One Ton Depot, the place where they had left their provisions and where they intended to return to after coming back from the Pole. The expedition projected to make it back, but they hit unexpected bad weather that stalled the expedition for five precious days, and there eventually came a point where getting to the provisions of One Ton Depot became all or nothing, and it, sadly, ended up as nothing. Though far less tragic, that would have been the outcome of Willie Davis' quest for 3,000 hits. Some hardship would have happened, some event would have derailed him, and his chances would have gone from near even money to zero in a heartbeat.