John Olerud

[Brad Harris]

Here is John Olerud's up-to-date (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4403) stats.

Here are his career stats thru 2002 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/olerujo01.shtml).

Since his name has risen in several discussions of late, I thought we might take a look at his career and ask where you think he might eventually settle in the history books.

[Steffo]

I think he will make the abllot, but he is the type that will be dropped off immediately. He hasn't done enough for me to say he's a HOF er.

[eurycea]

Well I voted for the second choice, but I should have looked at his stats first. I thought he'd higher black and gray ink scores.

[Cougar]

Olerud's really got to keep his production up for another few years, minimum. Even then it's tough, because we've had a huge glut of great first basemen over the last quarter century.

Pros: BA, OBP, doubles, runs scored, defense, playing for winners.

Cons: Limited HR power, less RBI than you like to see from 1b, only 2 All-Star appearances, little aura.

He's in his mid-thirties, playing in a pitcher's park, and is experiencing one of his periodic power droughts. He'll have a very tough time getting to the head of the line.

[yellowdog]

I think he's got a long way to go and probably doesn't have enough time to get there.

[The Commissioner]

I voted "a little more", but I guess that depends on your definition of a "little more". He still needs to have a few more very good seasons. I see anyone with 2000+ hits, 1000+ runs, 1000+RBI, and a batting average around .300 (.299) as a viable candidate. Just how much of a candidate depends on how much more he accomplishes. He is getting ready to pass Foxx and Sam Crawford for 65th all-time in doubles and has always been an excellent fielder. If he can play long enough, maintain a batting average around .300, and get closer to 300 HR (presently 232), he should stand a pretty good shot at the Hall. Of course "should" is the key word here. That doesn't necessarily mean he will get any votes.

[J W]

I think Olerud is the definition of the player worth more to his team than people think. I say this because I can only remember him playing on winning teams... and he is consistently a very good player. That .403 OBP speaks volumes to me.

But let's face it; Olerud's only shot at the Hall comes with longevity. He is younger than I thought (35 in August), so he has that going for him. He does seem like the kind of player who will play well even at age 40. But we don't know yet.

If he plays well for five more years, well then he'll have 2,800 hits, 1400 RBI & runs, and likely still an average over .290. Then, even in today's offensive era, you'll have to look at him. But that still won't guarantee a thing. For that he'll need to play seven or eight more years well, and considering he'll be 42-43, that in and of itself will be impressive on his Hall resume.

I consider that a long time, though, in a profession where a fluke injury can ruin your career tomorrow.

[scottdpops]

A few more years of Ichiro hitting in front of him and Boone hitting behind him and he might put up good enough stats,, he was a great player for NY, underrated glove man,, Heart of A Champion and Does eveyone remember, he had brain surgery when he played for Washington?

[Sandman]

He's got a lot more to do, only 2,000 hits, 230 HR and a little over 1,000 RBI. But then again, he's only 33.

[NOMAR22]

I voted "a little more", but I guess that depends on your definition of a "little more". He still needs to have a few more very good seasons. I see anyone with 2000+ hits, 1000+ runs, 1000+RBI, and a batting average around .300 (.299) as a viable candidate. Just how much of a candidate depends on how much more he accomplishes. He is getting ready to pass Foxx and Sam Crawford for 65th all-time in doubles and has always been an excellent fielder. If he can play long enough, maintain a batting average around .300, and get closer to 300 HR (presently 232), he should stand a pretty good shot at the Hall. Of course "should" is the key word here. That doesn't necessarily mean he will get any votes.

He has no shot to make the HOF. I would put Keith Hernandez,Steve Garvey,Dick Allen,Vada Pinson,Al Oliver,ahead of him in the HOF.

[vasprtsfn]

I think he has had enough production that he will be on the ballot for all 15 yrs by getting the minimum 5%. But I dont see him as a HOFer.

[Brad Harris]

Olerud isn't a Hall-of-Famer. The shame of it isn't that he won't be recognized as such, but rather that he won't be recognized for being as good as he really was. That doesn't have to be a Hall-of-Fame level for his career to be noteworthy. I have zero confidence in the voters keeping Olerud around (above 5% support) for any length of time and, much as he deserves some recognition for his outstanding accomplishments, there's really no need to keep him on the ballot if he's not a serious candidate in the discussion.

Someone a few decades from now will look at his numbers and say "gee...here's a guy who overlooked as a darned good player!" No reason why we can't say it now, though. Olerud easily skates into the Hall-of-the-Very-Good.

That said, he's more deserving than Mark Grace.

[Sweet Lou]

My Dad and John Olerud Sr. are friends and have lunch together sometimes. Dad said that John Sr. said that if John Jr. had played 3 or 4 more seasons, he'd be Hall of Fame worthy. While I'm a huge Olerud fan, and without looking at actual stats, I disagreed. He was very patient at the plate, drew the walks, was capable of hitting homeruns, but even with 3 or 4 more years, I don't think his numbers were Hall of Fame.

17 Seasons:
H 2239 2B 500 HR 255 BB 1275 RBI 1230 BA .295 OBP .398 GDP 230

PO 16166 A 1490 E 82 FP .995

1993 Batting Champion .363
3 Gold Gloves 2000, 2002, 2003

What do you guys think?
Lou

[cbenson5]

He had a couple of really good years and several solid years. He was never the dominant player at his position, and never had a period of great years. He is the kind of player that would have needed a milestone like 3000 hits to have gotten.

[KCGHOST]

Olerud is a big favorite of the statheads, but the BBWAA will see things differently. Very productive player, but as a 1B not productive enough.

[Williamsburg2599]

Had a lot of hype when he came right to the show from College, but he never really lived up to it. A great player, but not a HOF.

[plask_stirlac]

You mean Joe Mauer the first-baseman? hehe

He isn't quite there... excellent player, but not awe-inspiring outside of 1993 and 1998.

[Da Penguin]

good statistics....just not HOF worthy

[BoSox Rule]

This is odd. After doing my player rankings I was just going to start this thread.

John Olerud is quite possibly the most underrated player of our time. He as an on-base machine for over 9,000 plate appearances, with the .398 OBP. It was an amazing .473 in 1993 and was over .450 in 1998. He didn't hit for the power you'd expect for a first baseman but he had 2 great power seasons and was typically in the .470-.490 range. He was also one of the best defenders at 1B ever.

I am in the middle of the groundwork for my top players list and my starting point was (WARP over 8.0 plus career WARP / 2) and John Olerud places 66th out of all players in baseball history.

[Williamsburg2599]

This is odd. After doing my player rankings I was just going to start this thread.

John Olerud is quite possibly the most underrated player of our time. He as an on-base machine for over 9,000 plate appearances, with the .398 OBP. It was an amazing .473 in 1993 and was over .450 in 1998. He didn't hit for the power you'd expect for a first baseman but he had 2 great power seasons and was typically in the .470-.490 range. He was also one of the best defenders at 1B ever.

I am in the middle of the groundwork for my top players list and my starting point was (WARP over 8.0 plus career WARP / 2) and John Olerud places 66th out of all players in baseball history.

"They both (statistics & bikinis) show a lot, but not everything." - Infielder Toby Harrah

[Fuzzy Bear]

You mean Joe Mauer the first-baseman? hehe

He isn't quite there... excellent player, but not awe-inspiring outside of 1993 and 1998.

That's part of his problem; his career value is not evenly distributed.

Another problem is his relative lack of power.

A third problem is that his career is relatively short, though not terribly so.

If Olerud hit .310 lifetime he'd be a better candidate. Once he went under .300, he needed 3,000 hits, and he started too late and faded too early.

[jalbright]

John Olerud is quite possibly the most underrated player of our time. He as an on-base machine for over 9,000 plate appearances, with the .398 OBP. It was an amazing .473 in 1993 and was over .450 in 1998. He didn't hit for the power you'd expect for a first baseman but he had 2 great power seasons and was typically in the .470-.490 range. He was also one of the best defenders at 1B ever.

I am in the middle of the groundwork for my top players list and my starting point was (WARP over 8.0 plus career WARP / 2) and John Olerud places 66th out of all players in baseball history.

Olerud's father is missing the main issue--that his son only had one really HOF/All-Star caliber year before 1996, in 1993. He wasn't nearly the same player during the strike years of 1994-1995. If he wouldn't have declined so precipitously in 94 and 95, he'd have had a nice ten year run that might come close to HOF territory. He would have gotten more recognition for that nice OBP (though his lack of power for a 1B somewhat undermines that positive), and he would have done better than 2 All-Star games and 362nd in MVP shares. He'd have done better than 19th or so in career win shares among 1B in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract (read: not quite good enough). His best five consecutive win share seasons put him 22nd among 1B in the BJHA. His best three years are nice, 11th best among 1B in the BJHA. But in HOF standards and the inks, he's not up to snuff either. He's 297th in Black Ink, 475th in Gray Ink and 155th in HOF standards. As for the claim he was "one of the best defenders at 1B ever", please explain how he won only three Gold Gloves if he was that good with the leather. Keith Hernandez had 11, after all, and is one of nine guys with more Gold Gloves at first than Olerud. Sorry, but I'll pass on him.

Jim Albright

[baseball junkie]

Olerud is exactly the type of first baseman I'd want playing for my team. He had a fantastic career. But he's not a Hall of Famer. There's no shame in that.

Because of his lack of power hitting he is relegated to second-tier status at his position, with others like Will Clark(completely unfairly in Clark's case), Mark Grace, J.T. Snow & Jeff Conine.

[Sweet Lou]

Thanks guys. I don't have the chops to know all this stuff, but I had one of those "gut feelings" like my namesake always had. :D

[KCGHOST]

Using RCAA here are active or recently retired 1B's rankings:

F. Thomas 800
Bagwell 680
McGwire 665
Palmeiro 572
Thome 565
Giambi 490
McGriff 481
W. Clark 473
Delgado 443
Helton 441
Olerud 397

So Olerud on that scale ranks 11th, but does score higher than Keith Hernandez (363).

[Cowtipper]

Over his 17 years in the Majors, John Olerud was a two-time All-Star and three time Gold Glove winner. He finished with 2239 hits, 255 home runs and .295 batting average. A proficient walker, he walked 1275 times in his career, striking out only 1016 times.

He belongs to a pretty elite group. Himself, Rickey Henderson, Pete Rose, Rafael Palmeiro and Edgar Martinez are the only players currently in the Top 45 in career doubles and Top 40 in career walks not in the Hall of Fame. In other words, they are the only players with 500 or more doubles and 1275 or more walks not in the Hall...and that's because Rose is banned (with what would have been a Hall of Fame career otherwise), and the others aren't yet eligible. When they do become eligible for the Hall of Fame, Henderson, Martinez and quite possibly Palmeiro will be elected. How about Olerud?

Statistically, he is most similar to Will Clark, a player many believe should be in the Hall of Fame.

So, should Olerud get in the Hall of Fame?

[DoubleX]

I think Olerud was certainly an underrated player and will likely get less consideration for the Hall than he deserves, but he doesn't quite belong. It's closer though than a lot of people think.

I will say though that when you start saying things like "he's one of just five players in the top 40 in this not overly important category, and this slightly more important category" it feels like you're reaching. If you dig hard enough, you can often find weird statical and ranking arguments like this for a lot of guys, but they're usually not that compelling.

I also don't think Martinez is a lock at all for the Hall (which I think you suggested). I could see him being elected one day, but I think his support will likely build over time. I would be pretty shocked if Palmeiro is ever elected, but things change so who knows right now. Palmeiro would make it though if his numbers were taken at face value.

Finally, let's also not forget that Will Clark was bumped right from the ballot on his first try, so that doesn't bode well at all for Olerud's chances. Keith Hernandez is also worth a mention here as Olerud is in that kind of mold as a 1Bman, and Hernandez never came close. And then when you get guys like Tim Raines struggling to even get 25% support, not looking too good at all. If Hernandez and Clark suggest anything, it's that generally the electorate likes their Hall of Fame 1Bman to be sluggers, rather than players who were very solid and consistent overall. This might especially be held against Olerud because he played mostly in a high offensive era.

[philkid3]

I think Olerud was certainly an underrated player and will likely get less consideration for the Hall than he deserves, but he doesn't quite belong. It's closer though than a lot of people think.

I agree with this.

I look at Olerud right now the way a lot of older fans probably think of the 80s players who haven't quite gotten in. He's a memorably good player, and in 15 years, many of those who have watched this era will like to say he should be in because we remember him and he stood out, but he's not quite at a Hall of Fame level.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Olerud was certainly an underrated player and will likely get less consideration for the Hall than he deserves, but he doesn't quite belong. It's closer though than a lot of people think.

I will say though that when you start saying things like "he's one of just five players in the top 40 in this not overly important category, and this slightly more important category" it feels like you're reaching. If you dig hard enough, you can often find weird statical and ranking arguments like this for a lot of guys, but they're usually not that compelling.

I also don't think Martinez is a lock at all for the Hall (which I think you suggested). I could see him being elected one day, but I think his support will likely build over time. I would be pretty shocked if Palmeiro is ever elected, but things change so who knows right now. Palmeiro would make it though if his numbers were taken at face value.

Finally, let's also not forget that Will Clark was bumped right from the ballot on his first try, so that doesn't bode well at all for Olerud's chances. Keith Hernandez is also worth a mention here as Olerud is in that kind of mold as a 1Bman, and Hernandez never came close. And then when you get guys like Tim Raines struggling to even get 25% support, not looking too good at all. If Hernandez and Clark suggest anything, it's that generally the electorate likes their Hall of Fame 1Bman to be sluggers, rather than players who were very solid and consistent overall. This might especially be held against Olerud because he played mostly in a high offensive era.

I'm not sure what you mean "he's closer than you think" to the HOF. If you mean in terms of being a HOF-caliber first base candidate, well, no, I can't see that at all.

A certain amount of Olerud's career stats are due to his 1993 and 1998 seasons. His 1993 season was a super, super season by any standard; he deserved to be the MVP that year; he actually beat Frank Thomas (the winner) in Offensive Winning Percentage (.832 to .791); that's how good he was that year. And that doesn't even factor in the defensive edge Thomas had. That Paul Molitor finished second, ahead of Olerud, was a travesty; Molitor was DHing, and he didn't even have as good an OFFENSIVE season as Olerud did.

That being said, 1993 was way, way out of context for Olerud. His 1998 season was almost as good, but that season, also, was way outside his norms. His career was rather truncated, and his chance of getting in the HOF became dependent on his getting 3,000 hits. And that was something Olerud could not do. He did not age well; he was pretty much a replacement level first baseman by age 35. He was a little behind the pace for 3,000 after age 34, his last good season, and his chances went to near zero by the end of 2003.

Had Olerud aged better than he did, I would have had higher regard for him. I regard ability retention as a mark of greatness, and Olerud was a guy who was smart enough and who did enough things well that he could have survived as a regular to age 40 IF he had aged better, but that wasn't in him. He was NOT as good a player as Will Clark and Don Mattingly, and he was nowhere near as good as Keith Hernandez. (Hernandez had SIX seasons with an Offensive Winning Percentage over .700; that's pretty impressive, even for a FIRST baseman.) I really don't view Olerud as the equal of Mark Grace; Grace was far more consistent from season to season, and I consider that to be an indicator of value as well. I DON'T think Olerud is close to being a HOF-caliber first baseman, unless you're comparing him to George Kelly.

[DoubleX]

Had Olerud aged better than he did, I would have had higher regard for him. I regard ability retention as a mark of greatness, and Olerud was a guy who was smart enough and who did enough things well that he could have survived as a regular to age 40 IF he had aged better, but that wasn't in him. He was NOT as good a player as Will Clark and Don Mattingly, and he was nowhere near as good as Keith Hernandez. (Hernandez had SIX seasons with an Offensive Winning Percentage over .700; that's pretty impressive, even for a FIRST baseman.) I really don't view Olerud as the equal of Mark Grace; Grace was far more consistent from season to season, and I consider that to be an indicator of value as well. I DON'T think Olerud is close to being a HOF-caliber first baseman, unless you're comparing him to George Kelly.

I agree that Olerud is below guys like Hernandez, Clark, and Mattingly, largely based on peak performance (especially for Clark and Mattingly) but your post is an example of why I think he's closer than a lot of people think. He did everything well, finished with a 128 OPS+ in about 9100 plate appearances and was a very good defensive 1Bman. In comparison, Hernandez finished with a 128 OPS+ in about 8600 plate appearances, and Mattingly had 127 in 7700 plate appearances. So if you're holding what you view as lack of longevity against Olerud, you should also be holding it against Mattingly and Hernandez as well. Olerud was able to maintain the level of production for longer than both of them.

As for Mark Grace, he finished with a 119 OPS+ in 9300 plate appearances. Grace lacked the power that Olerud had and didn't get on base quite as well either. Overall, Olerud was pretty clearly a notch above Grace as a hitter IMO. Defensively, the edge might go to Grace, but Olerud was very good in his own right, and at 1B any advantage by Grace is likely not enough to close the offensive edge that Olerud has. You said Grace was more consistent from season to season - and to that I'd say he was consistently less of a hitter than Olerud. Look at their top 10 OPS+ seasons:

Olerud: 186, 163, 140, 136, 135, 128, 126, 124, 117, 116
Grace: 141, 139, 134, 128, 127, 126, 122, 122, 119, 113

Olerud wins on 9 out of 10, and for top 5 peak it's no contest whatsoever between Olerud and Grace - Olerud blows him out of the water. And you can't just ignore his two peak years like they didn't happen - they happened, and they really aren't that unreasonable - they are afterall, peak years. That being said, even outside of those years, he was still a better hitter for his career than Grace.

Furthermore, Olerud was still an above average hitter when he decided to walk away, whereas Grace was just terrible his last two years and really had no place on a Major League ballfield. So if you're holding Olerud's last years against him, then you should definitely be doing the same for Grace.

To say he's closer to George Kelly than he is to someone like Will Clark and Keith Hernandez is really a shining example of how people tend to underrate Olerud, IMO.

EDIT: I thought I'd also mention WARP3 between Olerud and Grace given that their careers were almost identical in length.

WARP3
Olerud: 118.2
Grace: 95.5

That's a pretty big gap considering their careers were almost identical in length. Like I said, I think a lot of people don't realize just how good Olerud was. He did everything well for several years, but didn't really stand out in any way, and thus kind of flew under the radar. He's still no a Hall of Famer in my book, but I do think he's much closer than a lot of people realize.

[Brad Harris]

My ranking of contemporary first basemen from the late 80's/early 90's:

1. Clark
2. McGriff
3. Olerud
4. Mattingly
5. Grace

[KCGHOST]

I like Olerud a lot better than I do the selection of Tony Perez, but I wouldn't but him in the HoF. He also has the problem of most of us have some guys ahead of him now and bunch more who will be ahead of him when they become eligible for the HoF.

[dl4060]

Olerud is borderline, but I don't think he will get in. I thought he would be a better hitter than he was. When he had that incredible 1993 season, I thought .315-.330 with 20-25 bombs and 40 doubles would be the norm for him. Olerud needed a few more seasons in that range. If he had put up that level of production more often, he would be in. 1993 and 1998 were incredible. He certainly looked like a hall of famer when he swung the bat. Give him a .310 lifetime average and he would be in easily. I thought he would end up that way in 1993.

[ChrisLDuncan]

He'd be better than quite a few HoFers in the hall, and better than some guys that were getting major support...

[dl4060]

He'd be better than quite a few HoFers in the hall, and better than some guys that were getting major support...

He sure would. One of the problems he has is that he is kind of an in between hitter. In 93' and 98' he was awesome, a George Brett type, but between those years he never even hit .300. That has to be a rarity, a guy with two .350 seasons 5 years apart, who does not even crack .300 in the seasons between. Give him a couple of .310-.320 seasons between the great ones and he gets in. He was neither a great average hitter other than those two seasons, or a great power hitter. However, his combiantion of good average, good power, and great plate discipline made him a terrific player.

I have always gotten the feeling that he never played up to what he could have been. Not that he was lazy or anything, I just think he had potential to be a guy who hit .320 with line drive power every year in his prime, with the occasional surge like 93' or 98'. He had the swing of a hall of fame guy.

Did he have some injury issues in the mid-90's?

[DoubleX]

I have always gotten the feeling that he never played up to what he could have been. Not that he was lazy or anything, I just think he had potential to be a guy who hit .320 with line drive power every year in his prime, with the occasional surge like 93' or 98'. He had the swing of a hall of fame guy.

Wasn't Olerud one of those extremely rare players in the recent decades that jumped right into the Majors without playing at all in the minors? If so, I'd say right there were pretty big expectations for him that would be hard to live up to.

[Scoops]

Yeah, his only minor league time was a rehab stint in the last year of his career - three games with the PawSox.

[Brad Harris]

Last year I had the good fortune of working with Olerud's sister-in-law. Apparently he's an avid water skier and great with the kids, too. Unfortunately, I never got the opportunity to meet him. (But I did get an autograph.) :D

[dl4060]

Wasn't Olerud one of those extremely rare players in the recent decades that jumped right into the Majors without playing at all in the minors? If so, I'd say right there were pretty big expectations for him that would be hard to live up to.

He was. His first couple of years in the bigs were very good, he hit very well, but was not a superstar yet. At that time he was looked as someone who had huge potential, a guy who had hit well in the big leagues and had a truly amazing swing. Then came 1993, people expected big things, but that was out of this world. It seemed to be confirmed that he was something special. You would have to figure that a guy who had been a good hitter at age 21 in the majors, hit .363 with 24 bombs at age 24, and had the most beautiful swing around would hit .320 regularly. He never lived up to the expectations generated by that 1993 season, although his 1998 season was pretty awesome too. The 1994 through 1997 seasons were all good or very good, but not great. In a way, this is similar to JD Drew, who has been a very good player(when he has actually played) as opposed to the great one predicted by his 2001 season. I don't look at the reasons for the disappointment as similar, as I have never heard anything but praise for John Olerud as a person, but in both cases there was hall of fame play at age 24 or 25 that was not quite lived up to subsequently.

[Fuzzy Bear]

To say he's closer to George Kelly than he is to someone like Will Clark and Keith Hernandez is really a shining example of how people tend to underrate Olerud, IMO.

EDIT: I thought I'd also mention WARP3 between Olerud and Grace given that their careers were almost identical in length.

WARP3
Olerud: 118.2
Grace: 95.5



I'll give you Grace; on reflection, Olerud was somewhat better. Grace WAS more consistent from year to year, however.

There's NO WAY Olerud should be in the HOF before Norm Cash. Cash has a .707 career Offensive Winning Percentage, which is HOF territory. We shouldn't even have this thread for Olerud as long as Cash is outside the HOF. And Olerud is closer to George Kelly than he is to Norm Cash.

[Cowtipper]

By the way...

I just noticed someone already started a thread concerning Olerud and the Hall...

http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=9051&highlight=%22Mark+Grace%22

Sorry for starting a second thread on the subject, I didn't even notice that thread until now...

[jalbright]

By the way...

I just noticed someone already started a thread concerning Olerud and the Hall...

http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=9051&highlight=%22Mark+Grace%22

Sorry for starting a second thread on the subject, I didn't even notice that thread until now...

You're hardly the first to do this, I'm sure you won't be the last. However, you can claim a first as the first creator of such a thread to tell me there was another thread on the same person. I am merging those two threads now.

[DoubleX]

I'll give you Grace; on reflection, Olerud was somewhat better. Grace WAS more consistent from year to year, however.

There's NO WAY Olerud should be in the HOF before Norm Cash. Cash has a .707 career Offensive Winning Percentage, which is HOF territory. We shouldn't even have this thread for Olerud as long as Cash is outside the HOF. And Olerud is closer to George Kelly than he is to Norm Cash.

I don't recall saying anything about Norm Cash. I have Cash higher than Olerud in my rankings. But I also have Olerud much closer to Cash than to Kelly. I think you're going to have to explain why you keep bringing Kelly up as a reference point, because I don't see it. Kelly had a 109 OPS+ in 6600 PAs, while Olerud had a 128 OPS+ in 9100. That's not even remotely close. Throw in era adjustments and the gap widens. I'm not even going to bother with win shares and WARP3 because there really isn't a close comparison between them.

As for Olerud and Cash... Cash has the OPS+ advantage, 139 to 128, but Olerud had about 1500 more plate appearances, didn't sit against lefties in his prime like Cash did, and was a better defender. I still have Cash ahead, but Olerud really isn't that far behind, IMO. In WARP3, Olerud has a decided edge, 118.2 to 92.9. Also, you knocked Olerud for his two peaks years, well what about Cash's '61? That has to be one of the oddest peak years ever - it was just so far and away beyond anything else he did in his career, came in the first expansion year, and while using corked bats. Even with that really inordinate year, Olerud still has the better Win Share 3-year peak than Cash.

The more you post about Olerud, the more it just seems like another example to me about how Olerud tends to be underrated, and perhaps grossly so (especially when you say he's closer to George Kelly than some of the others in this conversation). I like Cash a lot, and he's close to the Hall for me, but give Olerud his due.

[leecemark]

--The main reason Olerud won't get a sniff of the Hall of Fame is there are just too many great firstbasemen in his generation. If he'd been the same player in the 1900-1910s or the 1940s-59s when there was a dearth of elite firstbasemen he'd really standout. Had he played in the 1920s-30s he WOULD have put up more seasons like his 1993, although they wouldn't have been as valuable, and he would be in the Hall of Fame (he is better than Kelley and Bottomley and almost as good as Terry and Sisler).
--In his own time though he has some significantly better players to match up against. He is nowhere near as good as Thomas or Bagwell or McGwire. Nor is he as good as McGriff or Thome or Palmeiro or Helton or probably Delgado. He is isn't much better than Grace. Then there are the guys who were winding down as he got started - Murray clearly and probably Hernandez and Mattiingly. Then Pujols comes along late in his career and may be better than any of the above. I may be forgetting someone too (Gallaraga, ??). Olerud was a nice ballplayer, but he sure isn't anything special compared to his contemporaries. In this environment he is probably going to be a one and done candidate.

[ChrisLDuncan]

I'd say he's borderline. People say Keith Hernandez should be in, and I'd say Olerud is better than Hernandez. I'd also say he's close to value in Frank Thomas too as far as career value goes. I don't care if he gets in or not, either way it's justifiable IMO.

[leecemark]

--Although I think the George Kelly comps have been unduly harsh on Olerud previously he IS much closer to Kelly than he is to Frank Thomas. OLerud was a good hitter - Thomas was one of the best hitters ever. Olerud has a big defensive edge, but he is one of the few players I've seen who wouldn't totally embarass Thomas in a foot race:eek:. There might have been a couple years when Thomas was fighting injuries where you could have convinced a big league team they'd be better off with Olerud - but for most of their careers the comparison would only get you stares of disbelief.

[DoubleX]

--Although I think the George Kelly comps have been unduly harsh on Olerud previously he IS much closer to Kelly than he is to Frank Thomas. OLerud was a good hitter - Thomas was one of the best hitters ever. Olerud has a big defensive edge, but he is one of the few players I've seen who wouldn't totally embarass Thomas in a foot race:eek:. There might have been a couple years when Thomas was fighting injuries where you could have convinced a big league team they'd be better off with Olerud - but for most of their careers the comparison would only get you stares of disbelief.

At what point do we start thinking of Thomas as a DH and not a 1Bman? He's played less than 1000 games at 1B and almost 1250 at DH. Even his rookie year, he was mostly a DH, a portend for things to come. Paul Molitor went into the Hall as a DH, but he played more games in the field than Thomas (though spread out among multiple positions) and less games at DH than Thomas. I know some will take issue with this comment, but I really wonder if Thomas would still be in baseball if not for the DH. We've seen so many great hitters in the pre-DH era retire because they could no longer help their teams in the field. Ralph Kiner, Frank Howard, Hank Greenberg, even Mickey Mantle come to mind, among others. I think as Thomas became completely inept in the field and with the injuries he's had in the past decade, I think in a pre-DH era, his career probably would have been over by now and he wouldn't have got as many PAs down the stretch of his career as he's had.

That being said, yes, Thomas is certainly in a higher class of player than Olerud.

[leecemark]

--I agree with this. If nothing else I don't know that anybody would have been interested in Thomas by the time the White Sox let him go. Without the DH he would have been a part time player for several years prior to that. He'd have had no milestones to shoot for and nobody would have been optimistic enough to think he could be the regular 1B. The market for immobile, fragile partime 1B/PH wouldn't have been booming.
--Still even if he'd retired 5 years ago with less than 2,000 game son his reusme he'd tower over Olerud. Some people might even rank him higher if he had retired then. Thomas is a peak monster and reaching 500 HR, etc was not important to his Hall of Fame case.

[DoubleX]

--I agree with this. If nothing else I don't know that anybody would have been interested in Thomas by the time the White Sox let him go. Without the DH he would have been a part time player for several years prior to that. He'd have had no milestones to shoot for and nobody would have been optimistic enough to think he could be the regular 1B. The market for immobile, fragile partime 1B/PH wouldn't have been booming.
--Still even if he'd retired 5 years ago with less than 2,000 game son his reusme he'd tower over Olerud. Some people might even rank him higher if he had retired then. Thomas is a peak monster and reaching 500 HR, etc was not important to his Hall of Fame case.

There's no question that Thomas towers above Olerud and that's because of Thomas' great peak. So yeah, retiring 5 years ago wouldn't have done much to change the comparison. If Thomas did retire 5 years ago though, I think he'd have a harder time getting in the Hall. He's not someone who has been fully appreciated for much of his career by the media. Just 5 All Star appearances for example (though that's the fans). I actually think he needed to stick around and compile in order to get the writers' attention, otherwise I think many would have overlooked how good he was. Kind of like Dick Allen.

The only reason I mentioned the DH thing though was to challenge whether it's appropriate to compare Olerud and Thomas as career 1Bmen, when Thomas seems to really better fall in the DH category now. Regardless though, he ranks pretty far above Olerud.

[Mike Hoban]

I believe that we should be talking about Frank Thomas as a DH and not as a first baseman. Paul Molitor was the first DH in the Hall and Thomas should be the second. I think it may be a long time before we see a third. Edgar Martinez? I don't think so. Here are the NEWS scores for these three.

Frank Thomas 326
Paul Molitor 306
Edgar Martinez 243

What happened to Will Clark in this discussion of good first basemen? The NEWS HOF Gauge has Clark as the #11 best career for a first baseman. Here are the rankings (with Frank Thomas removed).

1. Lou Gehrig 410
2. Jimmie Foxx 353
3. Willie McCovey 316
4. Dick Allen 314
5. Eddie Murray 314
6. Jeff Bagwell 312
7. Johnny Mize 307
8. Harmon Killebrew 303
9. Mark McGwire 298
10. Rafael Palmeiro 290
11. Will Clark 285
12. Jim Thome 282
13. Jason Giambi 276
14. Tony Perez 274
15. Orlando Cepeda 266
16. Keith Hernandez 264
17. Hank Greenberg 263
18. Fred McGriff 262
19. Bill Terry 261
20. Norm Cash 260
21. Carlos Delgado 255
22. John Olerud 255
23. Todd Helton 252
24. George Sisler 252
25. Don Mattingly 247

Author of BASEBALL'S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers

[Mr. Red]

There may already be a thread on John Olerud, so I'm sorry if this is redundant. However, I have really been wondering as of late what people here think about Olerud. I have very much believe that he will not be inducted into the Hall (with the Hall already shutting its doors on Don Mattingly). This being said, do any of you believe that he DESERVES inclusion in the Hall? His ink and monitor numbers are pretty low, but I'm more or less convinced that the there are worse players in the Hall.

[Mr. Red]

I'm somewhere between options #4 and #5.

[PVNICK]

If he had a few more years like 93 and 99, racked up more than 1500 RBI or runs, or had more than a few seasons cracking triple digits in each despite being a middle of the order batter (often 3) on some very good teams perhaps, because of the good glove he gets in. But he didn't do that. He was never as good as Mattingly or Will Clark (among others) for more than those two seasons at his peak offensively, nor as good as Hernandez defensively.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

A vote for Olerud is basically a vote for Keith Hernandez. Personally, I think they both fall short.

[jalbright]

There may already be a thread on John Olerud, so I'm sorry if this is redundant. However, I have really been wondering as of late what people here think about Olerud. I have very much believe that he will not be inducted into the Hall (with the Hall already shutting its doors on Don Mattingly). This being said, do any of you believe that he DESERVES inclusion in the Hall? His ink and monitor numbers are pretty low, but I'm more or less convinced that the there are worse players in the Hall.

Not to worry. Actually, there were two before this, and now they'll all be one--with this newer poll.

There are worse players in the Hall (1B George Kelly comes to mind here) but the mistakes shouldn't be the standard. What should be the standard is can he arguably make the cut if we only had 18-20 MLB 1B or 140-150 position players? I don't think he passes those tests. Moreover, even at 1B I'd rather have Allen and McGwire than him.

[Brad Harris]

If you held a draft of all the players who don't deserve Hall of Fame induction, Olerud would be a starter at his position.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

If you held a draft of all the players who don't deserve Hall of Fame induction, Olerud would be a starter at his position.

That sums it up pretty well. Though I'm not prepared to say that Olerud's the absolute best first baseman who I wouldn't vote for (there's Mex and Thrill, among others, to consider), he's certainly very near the top.

[Mike Hoban]

Based strictly on the numbers, the CAWS Career Gauge has these players as the top 25 first basemen. As you can see, Olerud is #22. Only the top 12 plus Greenberg and Terry have HOF numbers. The first number is career win shares, the second is core value and the third is the CAWS score.

Note where Thome, Giambi, Delgado and Helton are at present.

1. Lou Gehrig 489 384 410
2. Jimmie Foxx 435 325 353
3. Willie McCovey 408 285 316
4. Dick Allen 342 304 314
5. Eddie Murray 437 273 314
6. Jeff Bagwell 388 287 312
7. Johnny Mize 339 296 307
8. Harmon Killebrew 374 279 303
9. Mark McGwire 342 283 298
10. Rafael Palmeiro 387 257 290
11. Jim Thome 341 267 286
12. Will Clark 331 269 285
13. Jason Giambi 302 271 279
14. Tony Perez 349 249 274
15. Orlando Cepeda 310 251 266
16. Carlos Delgado 298 254 265
17. Keith Hernandez 311 248 264
18. Hank Greenberg* 267 262 263
19. Fred McGriff 326 240 262
20. Bill Terry* 278 255 261
21. Norm Cash 315 241 260
22. John Olerud 301 239 255
23. Todd Helton 261 252 254
24. George Sisler 292 239 252
25. Don Mattingly 263 241 247

* = HOF numbers - short but great career.

If anyone would like a free e-copy of the 100-page monograph, A HOF HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not, just e-mail me at mike_hoban@msn.com

[Mr. Red]

Not to worry. Actually, there were two before this, and now they'll all be one--with this newer poll.

There are worse players in the Hall (1B George Kelly comes to mind here) but the mistakes shouldn't be the standard. What should be the standard is can he arguably make the cut if we only had 18-20 MLB 1B or 140-150 position players? I don't think he passes those tests. Moreover, even at 1B I'd rather have Allen and McGwire than him.

I agree that mistakes shouldn't become a standard and I also agree that he doesn't meet the top 20 1B standard either.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't recall saying anything about Norm Cash. I have Cash higher than Olerud in my rankings. But I also have Olerud much closer to Cash than to Kelly. I think you're going to have to explain why you keep bringing Kelly up as a reference point, because I don't see it. Kelly had a 109 OPS+ in 6600 PAs, while Olerud had a 128 OPS+ in 9100. That's not even remotely close. Throw in era adjustments and the gap widens. I'm not even going to bother with win shares and WARP3 because there really isn't a close comparison between them.

As for Olerud and Cash... Cash has the OPS+ advantage, 139 to 128, but Olerud had about 1500 more plate appearances, didn't sit against lefties in his prime like Cash did, and was a better defender. I still have Cash ahead, but Olerud really isn't that far behind, IMO. In WARP3, Olerud has a decided edge, 118.2 to 92.9. Also, you knocked Olerud for his two peaks years, well what about Cash's '61? That has to be one of the oddest peak years ever - it was just so far and away beyond anything else he did in his career, came in the first expansion year, and while using corked bats. Even with that really inordinate year, Olerud still has the better Win Share 3-year peak than Cash.

The more you post about Olerud, the more it just seems like another example to me about how Olerud tends to be underrated, and perhaps grossly so (especially when you say he's closer to George Kelly than some of the others in this conversation). I like Cash a lot, and he's close to the Hall for me, but give Olerud his due.

Lifetime OWP:

CASH: .707
OLERUD: .634
KELLY: .575

Olerud is .059 points better in OWP than Kelly, but .073 points below Cash.

I bring up Kelly as a reference point because (A) he was a first baseman, and (B) he is considered by many to be the worst player in the HOF; he's certainly the worst first baseman there. Olerud's no Kelly, but he's no Cash, either; at best, he represents the midpoint between the two players.

Olerud is, in many ways, close to Boog Powell in value. Both were done as stars at age 34; Powell fell apart all at once, while Olerud hung on longer as a part-timer. Powell was more valuable on offense, in that he was more consistent from year to year until age 32, but Olerud was a super defensive player at a position where defensive value is, IMO, undervalued and overlooked. Still, Powell racked up four (4) seasons over .700 in OWP, with a 5th season at .697. Furthermore, Powell was the more highly regarded player while active.

Olerud could have been a HOFer if he had been able to play regularly until age 40. He had the skill base to do it; he was an excellent defensive player to the end, but he lost too much at the plate to hang in full-time at 1B. He'd have deserved the HOF if he had been able to reach 3,000 hits, but he didn't make the most of his early start, and he wasn't really on pace for 3,000 hits after his last "star" season (2002). He might have a higher HOF profile if he had kept his BA over .300, but that didn't save Clark or Mattingly. (I rate Olerud behind Clark, but ahead of Mattingly.)