All Time Draft Round Two DRAFT PAGE. [Archive] - Page 3

brett

01-26-2008, 04:51 PM

Once again I have to go with who I think has the most value out there. Its tempting for me to want to grab a reliever, or one of several position players I want, but I think that

Ron Guidry

has the best 5 year stretch by any starter left. In fact, Gomez and Guidry both are just under 150 ERA+ for their stretches with solidly over 200 innings. I would actually put Guidry's 5 above Jenkins and Carlton, and very possibly a few others who went a few rounds ago. He didn't have as many innings, but the innings dropped off everywhere starting in '77 as a livelier ball went into use, so it is important to realize that the innings don't quite equate. In fact, you can see Carlton's innings dropping in the later 70s, and just about everyone else as well.

Guidry had the '78 masterpiece but was also over a 140 ERA+ in '77 and '79 and was over 200 IP in '77-'80 and missed in the strike shortened '81 season, but would have been right about there as well.

Perhaps he wouldn't have been drafted for a few more rounds, and yes, now I have 3 lefties in the rotation. Maybe I wont need lefty relievers as much though.

Is it generally considered OK to have 3 lefties and 2 righties or even 4 and 1 in the rotation?

Its nerve racking, but he's my man.

leecemark

01-26-2008, 04:55 PM

brett

01-26-2008, 05:00 PM

--Personally I don't think left-right balance in the rotation is particularly important. If the best guys on the board when I drafed a SP were all RH or all LH it would be just the same to me. Having a lefty heavy rotation would definately impact my choice of parks though.

Well, I'm pretty deep in left handed hitters, and left handed pitchers, and have lots of speed in the outfield, so maybe I need Yankee Stadium from the late 30s.

ElHalo

01-26-2008, 06:28 PM

Hm.

I did have Guidry as the best starting pitcher on the map (and have for some time), and wanted him to hang around as a fifth starter for me... although that was probably unrealistic, as I have a lot more holes to fill before getting to fifth starter. And I do have my end goal of having a knuckleballer fill that fifth slot (although I was sort of hoping that it could be Wilbur Wood... shame he didn't have more great seasons as a starter).

There's one reliever I'm absolutely salivating at, but I have to get some offense on this team desperately, so that's my goal here.

I had considered Vlad Guerrero, as he has lots of speed and great numbers. However, there's a few corner outfielders with great numbers on the board. Not so much in CF. That's why I'm going with...

Hack Wilson, 1926-1930.

Wade8813

01-26-2008, 07:15 PM

I AM a little suprised that relievers are going right now. Yes the starters left are rather closely packed, but even with leveraged value they are doing more than a reliever who is likely to go 65 innings. And a starting position player has more inherent value as well. I guess the question is how quickly the top relievers will run out. Yes, relievers are more important than position players off the bench, but not starters. Still, I might have taken Gossage, Wilhelm or Rivera by now. edit: on second look, Rivera, Ryan and Wagner have the most to offer above their comparables.
Yeah, drafts are funny like that. Players get picked much higher than they should based on how much they'll help your team, because of how much better they are than the others at that same position. People picked CFers higher than they would have otherwise, because they were disappearing. I took a SS with my 3rd pick, because in my opinion, there was a big drop off after him and one other guy. And I wouldn't have taken someone out of the bullpen for a couple rounds, but I needed to make sure I got at least one dominant guy from the 'pen.

Also, as for relievers, I think that there is an issue that the more guys who get used in a game, the more chance there is for one guy to hang a critical pitch, or have a poor inning. Are you saying you think bringing in more relievers makes it more likely that someone will mess up? I disagree. I think someone who's been in the game is just as likely (or maybe more likely) to hang a pitch, or have a bad inning, especially if they fatigue, or batters are able to adjust to them more.

brett

01-26-2008, 07:46 PM

Are you saying you think bringing in more relievers makes it more likely that someone will mess up? I disagree. I think someone who's been in the game is just as likely (or maybe more likely) to hang a pitch, or have a bad inning, especially if they fatigue, or batters are able to adjust to them more.

No, not really versus a starter, but relievers tend to either be on their game (say 9/10 times for the top guys) or off their game. You get one guy out of the pen on a bad night and he hangs the first one, or walks 2 in a row. If your starter goes 6 and you plan on having 4 different relievers take their turns in the last three innings, you may have a greater chance of having one of them come in when his stuff is just not breaking or his changeup doesn't drop enough (such as the un-named). Still, having the ability to contrast the starter, or have the right lefty to get past 2 left handed hitters, or just to force a pinch hitter is important. In fact, we are going to have the starters for this league with around 140 ERA+ scores, and our relievers should average 170 or better in their actual real-life rates. Having so many quality short relievers will really bring the league run scoring down. I still think we are going to be in a totally average offensive setting.

Even the best 1 inning relievers rarely put up 3 straight years which were all absolutely top notch, and we are basing our evaluations on, in some cases fewer than 200 innings over those 3 years.

philkid3

01-26-2008, 07:50 PM

I might regreat pushing off relievers for so long, but. . .

Paul Aloysius Hines (1978-82)

brett

01-26-2008, 07:53 PM

That's why I'm going with...

Hack Wilson, 1926-1930.

Wow, I never realized that he was almost exclusively a centerfielder. He and Mize do give a threat in the middle. If Wilson wasn't centerfield capable, I wouldn't have taken him here, but its a big plus. I also think that with your strikeout pitchers, Carew's disadvantage with the glove will be minimized.

Westlake

01-26-2008, 07:53 PM

Darn. I was hoping Hack would last.

leecemark

01-26-2008, 08:08 PM

Wade8813

01-26-2008, 08:17 PM

I knew Hack probably wouldn't last too long, but I was guessing that people might not realize he played CF. Quite an interesting picture of him.

ElHalo

01-26-2008, 09:28 PM

--He'll need the K's with the defense he putting together. Carew and Wilson, at least, are going to be amoung the worst at their positions. Wilson does bring some heavy hitting to CF for a late fill on the position though.

I don't think Carew is a terrible defensive 2Bman; he only played three of the five years at 2B, but when he was there, he was + 13 in FRAA for the period. How far to knock him down for the move to 1B is up to you, but when he was playing 2B he was all right at it. Your right in saying that Carew's going to be on the far side of average for defensive 2Bmen here, but I don't know that I'd put him behind, say, Hornsby defensively.

I was hoping to get Edmonds for CF, so I could have the offense and the defense. But at this point, I really really needed offense at that position, and so I had to suck it up and take the defensive hit at center. The guys I'm looking at for the corner outfield spots are pretty good defenders, so that should help compensate.

Regardless, other than SS and C, I'll have very solid offensive players all around, to go along with the best pitching by far. I'm happy with that trade.

ElHalo

01-26-2008, 10:02 PM

Wow, I never realized that he was almost exclusively a centerfielder. He and Mize do give a threat in the middle. If Wilson wasn't centerfield capable, I wouldn't have taken him here, but its a big plus. I also think that with your strikeout pitchers, Carew's disadvantage with the glove will be minimized.

I think Mize and Wilson are at least credible as middle of the order guys, and Carew (.358 BA, .422 OBP, 155 OPS+,37 SB) and Baker (.326/.387, 156 OPS+, great slugging in the heart of the deadball era) make credible 1-2 hitters. Corner outfield is about the easiest spot to fill up, and the guys I'm looking at are both good defenders and good hitters (to be honest, nobody should be left out in the cold without a good hitter and at least credible defender in both corners in this league (unless, of course, you're taking a hitter good enough to ignore his defense, like Ted Williams). I took Carew and Baker early because I wanted to be sure to get offensive forces at those positions, knowing that I'd be able to fill in offense better at the other positions.

I'm most likely going to completley punt offense at SS and go strictly with somebody who'll be a defensive superstar, to make up lost ground on that front. That should still give me a very solid offense all around -- always amazed when Hack Wilson slips in these drafts; nobody remembers that he was exclusively a CF, if not a great one -- to go with my pitching. I like my team thusfar (though I'd have liked it a lot more with Jim Edmonds), and feel that once it's fully fleshed out I'll be able to stand up with anybody (although, of course, my team style is going to be very different from everyone else's).

leecemark

01-26-2008, 10:05 PM

--If he was very good at it he wouldn't have moved to first. I'll be happy to go along with him being only 2nd worst to Hornsby though:thumbsup:.

ElHalo

01-26-2008, 10:29 PM

--If he was very good at it he wouldn't have moved to first. I'll be happy to go along with him being only 2nd worst to Hornsby though:thumbsup:.

He wasn't moved because of defensive problems; he was moved because, as everybody knows, 2B is a career killer, and his owners wanted to extend his career. They felt that, as he moved through his 30's, his body wouldn't be able to hold up to the regular pounding a 2Bman takes (similar reason why moving ARod to 2B was never even considered when the Yanks picked ARod up, even though he could probably handle it). Seeing as how he was in the midst of one of the best offensive runs of any 2Bman ever, probably not a terrible idea to try and extend his career.

Like I said, putting a defensive whizz at SS should help mitigate any problems, and it won't be impossible to find fine hitting corner outfielders who are good enough in the field to take a little pressure off of Wilson. There was just no one remotely close to Wilson left on the board with the CF position from an offensive perspective, and I didn't like the droppoff I'd need to have taken to get a good defender there. Again, not the happiest guy in the world that Brett stole my Plan A with Jim Edmonds (whose peak really was just flat out phenomenal). And, of course, you don't have to worry about these issues with the Duke on your roster. You're in a similar boat to me in that we both filled out the harder positions before moving on to the easier ones to fill; of course, I can't compare to ARod and Bench, and Schmidt's lead on Baker is a sizable one, while my pitching far outstrips everybodys. I think you've done the best job of anybody at picking up guys at thin positions.

SamtheBravesFan

01-26-2008, 10:53 PM

You can, though he's one of the best third basemen left.

Well, I have Chipper Jones. :) Hey... I COULD slot Chipper in left field... he did play that.

leecemark

01-27-2008, 05:48 AM

--I remember Carew's move and, while keeping him in the lineup was a consideration, being a poor secondbasman was a bigger one. Carew was adequete at secondbase - in the same way Piazza is adequete at catcher. I'd be happy to have him and would have taken him ahead of my own 2B, Craig Biggio. In fact, I took Biggio in large part because you took Carew right ahead of me and I was afraid that if I passed on a 2B with that pick I wouldn't have an acceptable candidate by the time it got back to me.
--Now I only have my corner outfielders and a DH/1B (depending on what I do with McCovey) to fill. Great hitters run deep enough there I'm not worried about getting frozen out.

Erik Bedard

01-27-2008, 07:01 AM

Speaking of 2Bs...

Bobby Grich, 1979-83

brett

01-27-2008, 07:04 AM

(to be honest, nobody should be left out in the cold without a good hitter and at least credible defender in both corners in this league (unless, of course, you're taking a hitter good enough to ignore his defense, like Ted Williams).

Most of what I've been able to dig up on Williams, both statistical attempts, and a few historical accounts that I have read suggests that he was probably a little above average fielder for a left fielder at least for '38-'40, and probably '42 and '46 and about average from '47-'51 as well though '41 was bad. He really plummeted after '51. Is this possible? He was fast enough to rack up his share of triples in '38 and '39.

brett

01-27-2008, 07:37 AM

I don't think Carew is a terrible defensive 2Bman; he only played three of the five years at 2B,

Part of his move was some issues of poor strategic quality in that time period in my opinion. Teams would put just about any bat at second or short who could play the field well. I think you can find more sub .250 hitting middle infielders with virtually no power from that time than about any other. (fieldingwise)Carew was better than Soriano. He was better than Hornsby primarily because Hornsby would not be a second basemen 25 years later-though he might have been fast enough to play centerfield. Carew was maybe as good as Kent, but teams are far more willing to put bats at second today I think, otherwise Kent would have moved.

And Carew was a great fielding first baseman, and he was probably the best hitter in the AL for quite a stretch despite moderate power.

I think that Baker should get some boost for power because I think he would have thrived with the live ball as far as power. There is no way to tell if he would have drawn enough walks to boost his OBP to league standards with the live ball. He has to rate as a good fielder at 3B as would most good third basemen from that period. In fact, I almost think he could have played second. I would consider him to have plus speed, but probably not be a base stealer, maybe a 15-18 steal guy, but able to take the extra base.

Since I will have to judge all of the OTHER teams compared with each other (rather than my own) I am using your pitching as a benchmark. I think that if you take your starters, and your probably relievers and prorate their innings, that you'r staff will have a combined ERA+ of around 170. I think that other teams can stay close IF they have time to pick out the relievers with great 3 year period. If they resort to big names, they wont. I think the average team can have a staff at 140-145 and a bullpen of 170-175 and given a 2-1 ratio of innings between starters and relievers, a 150 to 155 staff. So if their staves are 150 to your 170 (about 88%) you need to have an offense about 88% as good as the league average-not just OPS+, but with some speed, and with league quality factored in to a degree.

Fielding can also adjust the value of a pitching staff somewhat, probably by +20 if a team is loaded with all time fielders, and -5 if a team has a few marginal fielders (we won't have too many Dave Kingman's (sorry)) in the field. The one edge for you is that I think fielding is a little less important when you have a couple starters, and relievers striking out 12-15 per 9 IP (against average competition).

Still, basically you'll probably need to aim for an offense 90% as good as the average offense unless, of course people have relievers with 140 ERA+ and 4-5 starters in the 120s. I think it is possible for you to get an offense on the plus side of 90%, and every percent helps here, but I would always look for speed with a staff that good. Again, your team is benchmark #1 to determine the level of pitching and it won't be strictly statistical.

You can check the projections as far as the projected 170-175 ERA+ versus 150-155 for the league. Maybe I am misjudging.

ElHalo

01-27-2008, 08:03 AM

I have a feeling you're vastly overrated the average pitching staff (I would expect the average pitching staff to be at about 130, with the bullpen about 150). But we'll see when we get to that point.

Wade8813

01-27-2008, 04:22 PM

Well, AF's time ran out 1/2 an hour ago, so he gets skipped. I traded with DMF and I get his pick this round. I'll take John Smoltz.

brett

01-27-2008, 05:26 PM

Well, AF's time ran out 1/2 an hour ago, so he gets skipped. I traded with DMF and I get his pick this round. I'll take John Smoltz.

BTW you can take '03-'05 if you want because he made more than 80% of his appearances in relief for those 3 years (135 of 168=.804) That would give you 2 years as a closer with better than a 240 ERA+ and 1 year as a starter at 138. Or you can take '02-'04.

Wade8813

01-27-2008, 05:31 PM

I'm going to wait and see who else I get before I decide what years I want. I'm not sure if I want him in my rotation, in my bullpen, or both as a spot starter.

brett

01-27-2008, 06:08 PM

I'm going to wait and see who else I get before I decide what years I want. I'm not sure if I want him in my rotation, in my bullpen, or both as a spot starter.

Well you still have 2 of the next 5 picks:dance

So you should pretty much get who you want.

Wade8813

01-27-2008, 06:15 PM

It's certainly helpful, but I still have a lot of guys that I want. Besides, that pick was just making up for me being down a guy from earlier... :cool:

Wee Willie

01-27-2008, 10:04 PM

Amos Rusie, 1893-86, 1898

ChrisLDuncan

01-27-2008, 10:27 PM

He was already taken.

Westlake

01-27-2008, 10:43 PM

I had PMed Brett about making my pick for me, but luckily i'm still on tonight.

I'll take Roberto Clemente 1966-1970.

ElHalo

01-28-2008, 03:12 AM

I had PMed Brett about making my pick for me, but luckily i'm still on tonight.

I'll take Roberto Clemente 1966-1970.

Excellent call; he was going to be my next pick. Offense is great, although there's others who are better, but the defense really, really shines.

Wee Willie

01-28-2008, 03:41 AM

Sorry about not catching that Amos had been picked.

On to plan B: Tom Glavine, 1995-99

brett

01-28-2008, 08:20 AM

I had PMed Brett about making my pick for me, but luckily i'm still on tonight.

I'll take Roberto Clemente 1966-1970.

I just got your message this morning. Great pick. I had considered taking him and moving Raines to DH which would have given me an outfield of Clemente, Edmonds and Cobb in left which I think would have been incredible defensively.

Clemente may be overrated for his career but his 6-7 best years-well I thnk he should have gone by now. Congrats.

brett

01-28-2008, 10:14 AM

Sorry about not catching that Amos had been picked.

On to plan B: Tom Glavine, 1995-99

another good one. Honestly, statistically his 5 year peak was as good as Carlton's or Palmer's or possibly others.

The Splendid Splinter

01-28-2008, 10:56 AM

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 12:43 PM

Hey, nice one.

I'm going to take Jorge Posada (2003-2007) and Jim Thome (I'm going to decide Thome's years later, based on who else I get)

brett

01-28-2008, 01:37 PM

Well I'm sure it's my turn... I gotta fill my last position at CF and the 7 spot of my lineup...

I select Brian Giles... 1999-2003. It's gonna take a lot of pitches to get through my lineup. Also, 5 lefty and 4 righty in the lineup. Maybe I'll pick pitching from now on.

Fantastic pick. 5 years offense is right there with Edmonds. I bet E.H. won't be happy with this pick either. Somewhat below average as a centerfielder by most defensive evaluations, not ideal-but a capable centerfielder. I would rather have him than Hack Wilson I think considering all factors.

brett

01-28-2008, 01:41 PM

Hey, nice one.

I'm going to take Jorge Posada (2003-2007) and Jim Thome (I'm going to decide Thome's years later, based on who else I get)

Also two great choices. Well, Thome for sure. Catcher is a little up in the air right now.

I would not risk Thome as a third baseman personally. He was comparable to Edgar Martinez or Dick Allen or another who hasn't been taken. Especially with some of the capable bunters/speedsters in this league it could be problematic. I definitely wouldn't play him at third if you chose his later seasons because he simply couldn't physically do it.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 01:50 PM

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 01:57 PM

Jorge Posada (2003-2007)

Someone's a tool. :mad::ughh:grouchy:evil Easily a top ten hitting catcher IMO, I was hoping he would drop. Thome was a nice pick too, however I have my DH/3B/1B taken care of.

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 01:58 PM

brett

01-28-2008, 02:12 PM

What do you mean by catcher being up in the air?

Like I said, for Thome, it all depends on who I'm able to get later. I'd probably rather not have him at 3B, but it woulnd't be the end of the world, and it all depends on who else is available after 26 more picks...

What I meant, and probably stated oddly was that there are several catchers who I would place together on the next tier, Posada being among them, and so I am up in the air as to whether he was better than the pack.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 02:16 PM

What I meant, and probably stated oddly was that there are several catchers who I would place together on the next tier, Posada being among them, and so I am up in the air as to whether he was better than the pack. Oh, I see. I didn't see very many left, and most of the others have some problem or other (less games, being from the 1800's, not being very good at fielding, being weak at hitting, etc). Plus, with so many catchers gone, I wanted to make sure I got one (especially since in Minstrel's draft, someone put off taking a catcher because everyone else had one, but then people started taking their backup catchers, and he ended up with a bad catcher).

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 02:18 PM

What I meant, and probably stated oddly was that there are several catchers who I would place together on the next tier, Posada being among them, and so I am up in the air as to whether he was better than the pack.

The only thing that's up in the air is the ball off of Jorgie's bat. To get Jorgie's best all around season as a catcher, 2006, and two seasons that would he would be a great MVP selection if it weren't for A-Rod (2003 and 2007) is something special. He was a great selection, I would have taken him i was just hoping he'd last :(

brett

01-28-2008, 02:31 PM

Oh, I see. I didn't see very many left, and most of the others have some problem or other (less games, being from the 1800's, not being very good at fielding, being weak at hitting, etc). Plus, with so many catchers gone, I wanted to make sure I got one (especially since in Minstrel's draft, someone put off taking a catcher because everyone else had one, but then people started taking their backup catchers, and he ended up with a bad catcher).

Well, probably its best. What I've found is that if you try to gamble and put someone off in this draft, you often lose them and everyone like them.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 02:46 PM

Well, probably its best. What I've found is that if you try to gamble and put someone off in this draft, you often lose them and everyone like them.My thoughts exactly. I needed to make sure I got a catcher, and it's not so deep that I felt I could risk waiting. And even if I could wait, he's still a good pick.

The Splendid Splinter

01-28-2008, 03:05 PM

brett

01-28-2008, 03:13 PM

Well I'm not going to get a pitcher yet, instead I'm getting an important UTIL guy on my bench. He can play 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF with average defense at all of them.

It's none other than Pete Rose... 1968-1972.

Boy its really beginning to feel like most of us have the same lists.

Glavine, Giles, Thome, Clemente and Rose were on my "top sheet" when I turned in last night.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 03:18 PM

Of course, there's going to be a lot of the same people on the lists - a lot of them are just better than others. But then again, I think some of the picks were made quite a bit too early, which means that at least my list is a bit different.

Well I'm not going to get a pitcher yet, instead I'm getting an important UTIL guy on my bench. He can play 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF with average defense at all of them. Wow. Getting a utility player before your #2 pitcher? It seems too early by a few rounds to get any bench players. Although he is an amazing utility player, and I will admit that there are a lot of really good pitchers left, who are about equal IMO...

BTW, is the lightning round confirmed for tomorrow?

The Splendid Splinter

01-28-2008, 03:36 PM

Wow. Getting a utility player before your #2 pitcher? It seems too early by a few rounds to get any bench players. Although he is an amazing utility player...

Yeah... there just isn't any pitcher that really stands out to me where I really wanted to pick that pitcher. Also having a Super UTIL like Rose where he can play 5 position can help me limit my bench to 4 so I can carry 12 pitchers. Smart baserunner. Now I don't have to worry about my bench as much with Rose there.

brett

01-28-2008, 04:32 PM

Could I get confirmation on the start time for the lightning round tomorrow?

ElHalo

01-28-2008, 06:04 PM

I was planning on taking Jorgie this pick. That's two guys who I'd had already set out to pick (Clemente and Posada) taken before me. Oh well. Whose pick is it now?

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 06:28 PM

Westlake's on the clock.

ElHalo

01-28-2008, 07:38 PM

Chris, when you last updated the front page list of draft picks, you deleted the first two rounds.

Westlake

01-28-2008, 09:13 PM

Larry Doby 1950-1954

Wee Willie

01-28-2008, 10:17 PM

Todd Helton, 2000-2004 (he'll be my DH)

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 10:46 PM

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 10:48 PM

Chris, when you last updated the front page list of draft picks, you deleted the first two rounds.

Oops, I just got back from Velvet Revolver, and I am exhausted so I'll fix it tommorowish. (incase you were wondering Scott Wyland showed up an hour late and was pure drunken suck, Duff sang the first song, and he sounded alot better than Wyland, if you ask me they should replace Wyland with Duff...he sounds better for that type of music)

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 10:49 PM

Could I get confirmation on the start time for the lightning round tomorrow?

8 PM CST. I need EVERYONES confirmation tommorow by 6:30 PM otherwise I am afraid I may have to cancel it, and we may need to change the night.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 10:51 PM

Who hasn't confirmed?

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 10:57 PM

Ughhh...sadly me, I have a committie meeting to go too tommorow night at 7PM, I have ZERO idea as to how long it will last. Ahhh...the pains of running for City Council. :(

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 11:01 PM

You're going to a committee meeting an hour before the Lightning Round's supposed to start? I don't think there's any chance you'll make it on time. You should probably find someone to send a list to...

Is there anyone else who hasn't confirmed? If there's enough others who haven't, then we should call it off. But if there's just you and one or two others, we should probably proceed.

Disgruntaledmarinerfan

01-28-2008, 11:08 PM

Roy Halladay 2002-2006

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 11:08 PM

Got it worked out...I can assure you my expierence at the event will be boring as hell.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 11:10 PM

Alright, that's cool.

So, AF was skipped last round, so he gets skipped again. That means EB is up.

The Splendid Splinter

01-28-2008, 11:40 PM

A++ pic. fahgsdfcscv

yeah it was either that fight pic or a head first slide pic where he's in mid air.

Disgruntaledmarinerfan

01-29-2008, 12:26 AM

8 PM CST. I need EVERYONES confirmation tommorow by 6:30 PM otherwise I am afraid I may have to cancel it, and we may need to change the night. I'll be able to do the lightning round.

Westlake

01-29-2008, 01:20 AM

Im down for the lightning round.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 01:55 AM

Todd Helton, 2000-2004 (he'll be my DH)

I wouldn't recommend that. Not sure who you have playing 1B, but I'd DH them. Todd Helton is arguably the single greatest defensive 1Bman of all time, and would add a lot of defensive value in the field. You should probably put him there.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 01:56 AM

Wee Willie

01-29-2008, 03:36 AM

I wouldn't recommend that. Not sure who you have playing 1B, but I'd DH them. Todd Helton is arguably the single greatest defensive 1Bman of all time, and would add a lot of defensive value in the field. You should probably put him there.

That's true. I've got Pujols as my 1B, but Helton is better defensively, so I guess I'd flip-flop the two.

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 04:31 AM

Hippo Vaughn, 1916-20

leecemark

01-29-2008, 06:12 AM

--I was hoping to land Helton for 1B and move McCovey to DH.
--I will be able to be here tonight to the lightning round. It was agreed to a week ago and I'd say if anyone can't make it they need to get a list to someone. I'll be happy to draft for anyone who might need a proxy.

brett

01-29-2008, 09:18 AM

I can almost guarantee that I won't be making the lightning round; there's no way I'll be home from work by 9:00 EST, and if I wait around at work to do it from there, I won't get home until well after midnight. If somebody feels like taking a list from me, that'd be cool. If that someone would be Brett, that would be especially cool.

If you want to send me separate messages for your first choice, second choice, third choice, etc. I will only open the messages as needed to get you a pick. If the round is off, I will delete them. If we get past your next pick BEFORE the LR, I will be picking twice before you pick once, and that way you won't be giving me any free tips or creating a conflict.

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 10:59 AM

I should be able to make the lightning round. 6 PM PST, right?

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 11:14 AM

Also, how long is the round expected to last?

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 11:24 AM

8 central, so 6 PST. Hopefully it will last 2+ rounds.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 12:04 PM

Great news, my committie meeting tonight got postponed due to a snow advisory. :dance Then again I am getting all giddy over a snow advisory, I feel like I'm back in high school...now if only I can find another way to get back into the girls locker room in college :blush::D

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 12:45 PM

Westlake

01-29-2008, 01:13 PM

I was called into work at 5 today, so I cant be here. :(

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 01:43 PM

I wonder...do we all think lightning rounds are so necessary? I can make it, but it does involve moving some things around so not completely convenient. The draft seems to be moving along quite quickly...we're almost halfway through it, so I wonder if lightning rounds are that big of a deal.

I will, of course, accede to the majority view. Just asking.

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 03:46 PM

yeah im here for the lightning round, but it'll be hard for me to draft since Westlake isn't here and he draft before me... unless he sent a list to someone...

brett

01-29-2008, 04:25 PM

I can say for sure that I won't be around much longer than an hour. I can send a list to somebody when I have to go. There is also a slight possibility that I'll be a little late, though I don't anticipate that being a problem.

You and Westlake can send me 3 picks in order of preference in SEPARATE messages-first choice, second choice etc.

I will only open those needed to get your pick and will delete the rest.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 04:41 PM

I got Westlake's picks.

philkid3

01-29-2008, 05:09 PM

Is the lighting round still on? I can be here, but sorry I wasn't around to confirm.

brett

01-29-2008, 05:11 PM

Is the lighting round still on? I can be here, but sorry I wasn't around to confirm.

Yes, and by the way, you are up to draft now if you want to.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 05:16 PM

I'm here, and can get ahold of DMF when we need to.

philkid3

01-29-2008, 05:23 PM

I don't THINK he's been taken, but I'm wary because that surprises me, but. . .

Michael Grant Marshall (1972-74)

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 05:26 PM

Yeah, he was available.

brett

01-29-2008, 05:27 PM

ElHalo picks Paul Waner '27-'31.

brett

01-29-2008, 05:51 PM

I take Joe Nathan '04-'06

I like ERA+'s of 292 and 283

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 05:57 PM

Son of a bitch, I was going to take him :mad:

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 05:59 PM

I don't remember - did we decide on an end time for the lightning rounds?

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 06:00 PM

No.........................

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 06:03 PM

I select:

Don Mattingly

He may not have had a Hall of Fame career, but he had a Hall of Fame peak...for a five year competition, Mattingly provides a ton of value this late in the draft. Just a bit below Bagwell for a five year peak.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:09 PM

He may not have had a Hall of Fame career, but he had a Hall of Fame peak...for a five year competition, Mattingly provides a ton of value this late in the draft. Just a bit below Bagwell for a five year peak. He's good, but not 'just below Bagwell'.

SamtheBravesFan

01-29-2008, 06:14 PM

John Hiller, 1973-77

brett

01-29-2008, 06:16 PM

John Hiller, 1973-77

Great pick but needs a 3 year period. I assume '73-'75?

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:16 PM

You only need 3 years for RPs.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 06:17 PM

Craig Biggio

brett

01-29-2008, 06:19 PM

Craig Biggio

Mark has him

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 06:21 PM

Mark has him

I didn't see that. Hmmm, I guess I'll take Joe Gordon then

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 06:22 PM

I'm here.
.....

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 06:22 PM

He's good, but not 'just below Bagwell'.

With offense and defense factored in, I would say he was just a notch below Bagwell over their five year peaks. WARP3 has them close, Bagwell ahead a bit.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 06:23 PM

Donde esta Mark?

leecemark

01-29-2008, 06:25 PM

--I'll take Charlie Keller. Give me a minute for my next guy.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:25 PM

Nevermind...

brett

01-29-2008, 06:30 PM

--I'll take Charlie Keller. Give me a minute for my next guy.

Nice, using '41-'43 and '46-'47 looks good though 2 years against a little weaker comp.

leecemark

01-29-2008, 06:30 PM

--Brandon Webb 2003-2007

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 06:31 PM

I take Joe Nathan '04-'06

I like ERA+'s of 292 and 283

FanTAStic pick. He was next up on my relievers list; really, really great numbers for the three year stretch.

Upon further reflection, I think I'll go with Waner's 1926-1930 rather than '27-'31; 1931 was a borderline great defensive season compared to merely a very good one in 1926 (19 FRAA to 9), but I'll take the 147 OPS+ season over the 131.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 06:33 PM

Nice, using '41-'43 and '46-'47 looks good though 2 years against a little weaker comp.

He only played 45 games in 1947; I think you have to push that back a year.

leecemark

01-29-2008, 06:33 PM

Nice, using '41-'43 and '46-'47 looks good though 2 years against a little weaker comp.

--It will be 40-43, 46. Keller missed most of 47 (and the rest of his career) with a back injury. 42-3 weren't all that weak. Not 44-45 level weak anyway.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 06:33 PM

Joe Sewell 24-28

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 06:34 PM

I'm here... for about 15 minutes.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:37 PM

Hope you send a list to someone

brett

01-29-2008, 06:38 PM

I'm here... for about 15 minutes.

If you want to E-mail me your first, second and third choices in SEPARATE MESSAGES I will can pick for you, and I will not open any messages past the point that you get your pick.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 06:38 PM

Is Minstrel still here?

brett

01-29-2008, 06:39 PM

Joe Sewell 24-28

Sure you don't want '23?

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:40 PM

Minstrel was gone right before his last pick too, but picked promptly. If he's here, great, and if not, hopefully he either sent a list to someone, or he gets skipped. It's only 15 minutes at most we have to wait for him.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 06:42 PM

Sure you don't want '23?

I was considering it.

brett

01-29-2008, 06:43 PM

leecemark

01-29-2008, 06:45 PM

--15 minutes is over 3 hours for 1 round. Should we really wait that long for someone who has left with their turn coming up?

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 06:46 PM

Is Minstrel still here?

I'm checking every so often. Waiting for STBF to pick.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:47 PM

So far, no one's come close to the time limit. And even if someone's here, and hitting refresh every 5 minutes, it can still be hard to figure out who you want if everyone on your list is disappearing.

leecemark

01-29-2008, 06:48 PM

--Sam is here. The suspense is killing me STSF:hp.

SamtheBravesFan

01-29-2008, 06:52 PM

You only need 3 years for RPs.

All right, I'll fix those. In the meantime...

Nolan Ryan, 1972-76

Please, no comments. He's the only guy I could think of.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 06:53 PM

Interesting pick, but an even more interesting pic...

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 06:54 PM

I select:

Roy Oswalt (2002-2006)

brett

01-29-2008, 06:54 PM

I've got messages for EB's 3 choices.

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 06:54 PM

He was the only guy I could think of for a while too. I had to really look around to find Vaughn.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 07:00 PM

I've got messages for EB's 3 choices.

I believe you're up

brett

01-29-2008, 07:03 PM

2 minutes please

brett

01-29-2008, 07:05 PM

Francisco Rodriguez '04-'06 I lika the K's.

philkid3

01-29-2008, 07:06 PM

Overrated or not, I personally think Ryan is a very good pick at this point.

Is that a comment you want to hear?

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 07:08 PM

Joey "Why does everyone forget how good I used to be?" Belle, 1994-1998.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 07:08 PM

I didn't forget about him...

brett

01-29-2008, 07:11 PM

I suggest we take it up to the 10:00 PM central time? I am also updating the rosters on the who's on first thread.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 07:13 PM

Joey "Why does everyone forget how good I used to be?" Belle, 1994-1998.

Ughh...I wanted him pretty badly. At the very least if I didn't get him I wanted Brett to get him, I would have loved to see Belle and Cobb in the same OF :dance

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 07:16 PM

Joey "Why does everyone forget how good I used to be?" Belle, 1994-1998.

Good DH, but I'm not really ready to draft one of those yet. Plus there may be better ones left.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 07:20 PM

Mark, can you use your mod powers to look at edits of posts? I forget the order of picks, and the other stuff I had written there, think you can help?

philkid3

01-29-2008, 07:23 PM

It's me now, right? Sorry, I'm having trouble following.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 07:23 PM

Yep, you're up

brett

01-29-2008, 07:24 PM

Mark, can you use your mod powers to look at edits of posts? I forget the order of picks, and the other stuff I had written there, think you can help?

You can reconstruct it from my other thread

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 07:24 PM

I'm here, so Brett, you can ignore my PMs.

brett

01-29-2008, 07:25 PM

PK3's 15 minutes just expired. Your up EB

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 07:25 PM

Good DH, but I'm not really ready to draft one of those yet. Plus there may be better ones left.

He's my LF, not a DH. Over the five year period, he's +8 FRAA. Unless I'm missing somebody, there's nobody left who's a better hitter, in a good era, with average+ defense.

philkid3

01-29-2008, 07:26 PM

Red Ruffing (1935-39)

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 07:28 PM

hmm... im debating on either getting a pitcher or just finish out my bench... haha

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 07:29 PM

Robb Nen (1998-2000)

leecemark

01-29-2008, 07:34 PM

Mark, can you use your mod powers to look at edits of posts? I forget the order of picks, and the other stuff I had written there, think you can help?

--What is it you are looking for? If its an old version of a post you've edited over (post 1 of this thread?) then I don't think that is possible to retrieive to. Once its edited over its gone for good.

brett

01-29-2008, 07:34 PM

DMF is up, as AF is bypassed.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 07:37 PM

DMF wants Trevor Hoffman

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 07:40 PM

--What is it you are looking for? If its an old version of a post you've edited over (post 1 of this thread?) then I don't think that is possible to retrieive to. Once its edited over its gone for good.

Yeah, that's what I was looking for.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 07:42 PM

I can help - I'll IM it to you, Chris.

brett

01-29-2008, 07:50 PM

Can we agree to call it quits at 10:00 central?

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 07:51 PM

Well, we'll end the fifteen minute clocks at 10. After that, it's the same old same old, but if you're on do the people after you a favor and try to be timely. :)

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 07:51 PM

EDIT: mistake.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 07:52 PM

WW's time is almost up. Did he send a list to anyone?

Westlake

01-29-2008, 07:53 PM

Ed Reulbach, 1905-1909

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 07:54 PM

WW's time is almost up. Did he send a list to anyone?

Don't know but me and evan are ready to pick so me you and him can get our 2 picks really quick...

brett

01-29-2008, 07:55 PM

Don't know but me and evan are ready to pick so me you and him can get our 2 picks really quick...

His time is up, and prior to 10:00.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 07:58 PM

Ed Reulbach, 1905-1909

Great pick; I've been looking at him for a while.

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 08:01 PM

:rant: ahhh... i better jump on those pitchers.... nah. screw it. im gonna finish my bench then pitching for the rest of the draft.

I'll go with Eric Davis ... 1986-1990.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 08:09 PM

:rant: ahhh... i better jump on those pitchers.... nah. screw it. im gonna finish my bench then pitching for the rest of the draft.

I'll go with Eric Davis ... 1986-1990.

:eek: :rofl: ROFL...

I'll take Heinie Groh (1916-20) and Rollie Fingers (1981-83).

Minstrel

01-29-2008, 08:13 PM

Can we agree to call it quits at 10:00 central?

I hope so. I have to leave the computer now.

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 08:13 PM

with 2 bench spots left...

I'll take Ivan Rodriguez... 1998-2002.

then next round will be my last offense pick then all pitching the whole way.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 08:15 PM

I was hoping he could be my starting catcher.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 08:18 PM

I was hoping he could be my starting catcher.

Me too. Oh well. Not terribly concerned at this point; the catchers remaining are not particularly distinguishable.

leecemark

01-29-2008, 08:21 PM

--Isn't there a personal favorite of yours left?

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 08:21 PM

There's still at least one that's a bit over the others, IMO.

Westlake

01-29-2008, 08:28 PM

Ozzie Smith

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 08:28 PM

--Isn't there a personal favorite of yours left?

Is indeed, and I've been hoping to take him as my backup catcher, because he's rather... versatile.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 08:29 PM

--Isn't there a personal favorite of yours left?

No, he was taken earlier. However, there is one guy I am VERY high on.

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 08:29 PM

Me too. Oh well. Not terribly concerned at this point; the catchers remaining are not particularly distinguishable.

yeah i had C and SS left to fill in. I figure with C that he'll have more playing time than a SS on the bench so I wanted to get a good backup C. Also Cochrane is a lefty and I Rod is a righty that I can mix them up when facing a LH/RH pitcher as well.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 08:29 PM

Ozzie Smith

Aaargh! Not a huge deal, just means I'll have to take my other favorite SS, but I was hoping to get him.

Westlake

01-29-2008, 08:30 PM

Aaargh! Not a huge deal, just means I'll have to take my other favorite SS, but I was hoping to get him.

I was thinking about him too. Lucky for you, only you and I would pick him. By the way, i'll race you for backup catcher. I know we like the same guy for D there too.

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 08:34 PM

Good DH, but I'm not really ready to draft one of those yet. Plus there may be better ones left.

And the more I think about it, I'm not sure there are any better ones left. I might be missing somebody (and I'm not looking at roiders or 19th century guys), but I believe I took two of the last three guys available with 5 year OPS+'s over 160 (Belle and Wilson; Helton was the other).

The Splendid Splinter

01-29-2008, 08:38 PM

I might be missing somebody (and I'm not looking at roiders or 19th century guys)

umm... assuming they did the steroids.

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 08:39 PM

Wee Willie was skipped during the Lightning Round. Does he get skipped again? I could see it going either way. Normally if a person's skipped, they get skipped again, but he never had his full 8 hours, so I dunno...

ElHalo

01-29-2008, 08:40 PM

umm... assuming they did the steroids.

There are indeed names that failed to show up in the Mitchell report which I am nonetheless not going near with a fifty foot pole.

Westlake

01-29-2008, 08:41 PM

Wee Willie

01-29-2008, 09:28 PM

I'll take:

Ken Boyer, 1958-62

and

Dick Radatz, 1962-64

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 01:55 AM

Dick Radatz, 1962-64

Boo on that. He was absolutely my guy; tons of innings, good numbers, and an amazing strikeout rate. I very nearly tooik him... um... four rounds ago, when I took BJ Ryan. I had him definitively ahead of Rich Gossage.

brett

01-30-2008, 07:27 AM

I select:

Roy Oswalt (2002-2006)

Nice Pick, as for the Pic, is that Bud Bundy or Danny Bonaduce

leecemark

01-30-2008, 07:31 AM

--I actually had Oswalt above Webb, who I took a few picks earlier. Somehow I thought he was already drafted though. Oh well, it was a close call anyway.

brett

01-30-2008, 07:32 AM

with 2 bench spots left...

I'll take Ivan Rodriguez... 1998-2002.

then next round will be my last offense pick then all pitching the whole way.

Trust me, you don't need ANY pitchers at this point. That is, it won't make any difference.

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 07:34 AM

Trust me, you don't need ANY pitchers at this point. That is, it won't make any difference.

Agree with that. Like I said at the outset,the difference between the pitching you'll get in the tenth round vs. first round is VASTLY greater than the difference in, say, left fielders. It is a little late to start worrying about pitching; what you have is what you have.

leecemark

01-30-2008, 07:46 AM

--Everybody left is a back of the rotation guy by the standards of this league. The next guy picked won't be THAT much better than the last guy picked. There isn't going to be a hige difference between position players the rest of the way either. A particular player may suit the needs of your team better, but the actual quality differences will be very small. While those small difference will add up, it is probably more important that the pieces fit toghether than getting the guy who is a little better in a vacuum.

brett

01-30-2008, 07:48 AM

--I actually had Oswalt above Webb, who I took a few picks earlier. Somehow I thought he was already drafted though. Oh well, it was a close call anyway.

I did by a shade, but not sure they are really separable. I'd put both above Ruffing or Ryan, and had Vaughn, Oswalt, Webb and Glavine quite close, but there are perhaps 2 sleepers and a semi-sleeper. Then again, if they are sleepers, then they might not get the credit they are due.

Maybe TSS should just go for 12 relievers, or 11 relievers and somebody from the 1800 who can pitch 600 innings. You need to have about 1500 innings worth of pitchers. Or he could let Wade Boggs pitch.

As for Catchers, I don't think I-Rod stands out from another 2 guys, and maybe 3.

leecemark

01-30-2008, 08:25 AM

brett

01-30-2008, 08:45 AM

--I-Rod only stands out if you are really worried about teams running on you. In this league I'll be happy to see other teams attempting to steal bases and that would be true even if I only had an average defensive catcher rather than Bench. Its going to be a poor percentage move most of the time.

I'm still not sure about that. The starters going right now are still on the 140 ERA+ border, and there are DOZENS above 130, with the average looking like about 150 to me and the relievers are going to be largely 170 or better, and may rack up 30% of the league's innings AND bullpens deep enough to specialize big-time. There are middle infielders going with around 115 OPS+, or less in cases like Ozzie and they are going to help the pitchers as well.
We tend to have better than average fielders.

Take baserunning of all kinds out for a minute, and give the pitchers a 10% boost for having very good fielding teams (which would be high, but not impossible) and we effectively have a run-prevention index of about 170. I don't think the average hitter in the league will be at 170. Throw in some good baserunning and it goes up-a 140 guy is worth about 150 with his speed, and excluding steals-and we are not going to be at an offensive level of the mid 90s for sure. We might be a little under 5 RPG per team. Again that's just guessing right now, but if you have 3 relievers with 220 ERA+ finishing up the last 3 innings of a game, a team of all star hitters would only score at about a 3.0 RPG rate against them.

leecemark

01-30-2008, 08:55 AM

brett

01-30-2008, 09:15 AM

--Maybe you're right, but I think most of the scoring in this league is going to end up coming via the long ball. With the pitching and defense (well the defense may vary quite a bit from team to team) batting averages will be supressed and sequential offense will be difficult. At least thats what I've seen when I've been in leagues where we've simmed based on all time drafts.

That's an interesting phenomenon. Singles and walks are worth the most in high scoring settings, but steals get supressed because of the risk of outs. Steals may be devalued in a VERY low setting as well.

Not sure because a steal turns 2 singles into a run instead of 3. I do think averages would be supressed. A batting champ would probably be around .340. Of course batting averages were not really up in the mid 90s anyway, just slugging.

Do the simulators consider the home run rates given up by individual pitchers?

Even TSS's lineup only projects to about 260 home runs AGAINST AVERAGE PITCHING. That should be supressed about 15% just because of the reduction in hitting all around so about 220 home runs, and if home runs are independently reduced, well in Coors field's prime for example, a 10% boost to batting average correlated to a 20% boost in home runs which was accounted for due to how batters made contact, NOT by the flight of the balls-actually the ballpark size cancels out the thin air in this regard. So we should expect to see a 30% reduction in home runs corresponding to a 15% reduction in hits. That would put TSS's lineup at 180-200 home runs.

Wade8813

01-30-2008, 10:57 AM

DMF wants Fred McGriff

Minstrel

01-30-2008, 12:48 PM

Nice Pick, as for the Pic, is that Bud Bundy or Danny Bonaduce

Thanks, and he does have a rather earnest look. He's a gamer. You can't measure grit with ERA+. ;)

Erik Bedard

01-30-2008, 01:00 PM

And the more I think about it, I'm not sure there are any better ones left. I might be missing somebody (and I'm not looking at roiders or 19th century guys), but I believe I took two of the last three guys available with 5 year OPS+'s over 160 (Belle and Wilson; Helton was the other).

You were missing somebody.

Frank Howard, 1967-71

ChrisLDuncan

01-30-2008, 01:43 PM

Do the simulators consider the home run rates given up by individual pitchers?

I am not doing a sim, however pending interest in a sim/my bar tabs, I am willing do drop 30-40 on a sim.

Even TSS's lineup only projects to about 260 home runs AGAINST AVERAGE PITCHING. That should be supressed about 15% just because of the reduction in hitting all around so about 220 home runs, and if home runs are independently reduced, well in Coors field's prime for example, a 10% boost to batting average correlated to a 20% boost in home runs which was accounted for due to how batters made contact, NOT by the flight of the balls-actually the ballpark size cancels out the thin air in this regard. So we should expect to see a 30% reduction in home runs corresponding to a 15% reduction in hits. That would put TSS's lineup at 180-200 home runs.

I don't think it's how much his lineup will hit, it's going through it that will wear a pitcher down.

Imagine trying to get through:

Jennings
Boggs
Thomas
Bonds
Ott
Greenberg
Cochrane
Giles
Sandberg

You'd be lucky if your starter gets you to the 6th. As patient as that line up is. With the pitching that he has left, I don't see that team going anywhere but he will wear out pitching staffs.

Minstrel

01-30-2008, 01:58 PM

Boggs-Thomas-Bonds is one of the nastier sequences I can imagine a pitcher having to deal with.

ChrisLDuncan

01-30-2008, 02:07 PM

It's not like it gets easy after that too. I wonder how often they'll load the bases. Bases loaded with Ott and Greenberg after them? That does not sound like a lineup I would like to face.

brett

01-30-2008, 02:20 PM

I am not doing a sim, however pending interest in a sim/my bar tabs, I am willing do drop 30-40 on a sim.

I don't think it's how much his lineup will hit, it's going through it that will wear a pitcher down.

Imagine trying to get through:

Jennings
Boggs
Thomas
Bonds
Ott
Greenberg
Cochrane
Giles
Sandberg

You'd be lucky if your starter gets you to the 6th. As patient as that line up is. With the pitching that he has left, I don't see that team going anywhere but he will wear out pitching staffs.

I'm just questioning the theory that home runs will be the major source of run production.

And batters who draw walks do not necessarily take the most total pitches per plate appearance.

But what do we ultimately have there. With some LQ adjustment it is probably about a 160 OPS+ put into modern terms. Furthermore, it is somewhat negative in terms of baserunning-though there are some better runners, overall you have many guys who will not go from first to third on a single (league average is about 40% suprisingly).

Just for comparison, EH's top 4 starters, also adjusted somewhat have better than a combined 160 ERA+, and his bullpen will likely be around 180+.

And what do you get with pitchers from here on out? Probably about a 135 ERA+ for starters if you take who's left at this point. By then, you are drafting 150 relievers. You will find several 150 hitters out there, even some with speed. I think there is ONE 150 ERA+ starter with an average of 200 IP left (aside from pre-1900).

Unless teams want to invest more in terms of getting righty/lefty hitting platoons, the ability to bring in 2-3 specialized lefties and 2-3 righties, both with awesome stuff for 1 inning makes this around an average offensive invironment in my book.

Plus, TSS may very well be wearing out pitching staves for the NEXT team that plays that team he is playing. Anyway, nobody takes much more than 4.00 pitches per plate appearance. Even if a lineup was full of guys at that level, you probably need 105 pitches to get through the 6th.

brett

01-30-2008, 02:24 PM

It's not like it gets easy after that too. I wonder how often they'll load the bases. Bases loaded with Ott and Greenberg after them? That does not sound like a lineup I would like to face.

A .460 on base percentage becomes about a .360 on base percentage against 150 ERA+ pitching. And if Bonds wasn't intentionally walked so much, his stats on paper drop.

His effective OPS+ with a devaluation for intentional walks in his 3 biggest seasons was 210.

He averages .320 with 50 home runs and 150 walks in 500 at bats if you take out his IBB's. .700 slugging, .470 on base-no more.

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 02:25 PM

You were missing somebody.

Frank Howard, 1967-71

You're right; I had looked at him a while back, but dismissed him because his raw numbers weren't as impressive as his adjusted numbers, and he's just not my type of player. Nice pickup this late, though.

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 03:01 PM

A .460 on base percentage becomes about a .360 on base percentage against 150 ERA+ pitching. And if Bonds wasn't intentionally walked so much, his stats on paper drop.

And patience and plate discipline don't really help you when you're facing pitchers that don't make mistakes. Put Barry Bonds up against Christy Matthewson, and he better be putting the ball in play if he wants to get on base, no matter how many pitches he fouls off or lays off. I think if the league leader in this league gets 50 walks, that'll be a lot. All players feast off bad pitching; the guys that do it the most are the ones who wait on mistakes, and those'll be hard to come by in this league.

philkid3

01-30-2008, 03:15 PM

Joseph Michael "Ducky" Medwick (1935-39)

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 03:22 PM

Joseph Michael "Ducky" Medwick (1935-39)

Fantastic selection! He was my choice for LF if Joey Belle wasn't available; his 1937 season was one of the greatest of all time (and holds the single season record for most Black Ink in a season, non-Tip O'Neill division).

Smoky Joe Wood, 1909-1913.

AstrosFan

01-30-2008, 03:28 PM

ChrisLDuncan

01-30-2008, 03:39 PM

I totally spaced on this. I've been job hunting, but that's no excuse. I had time to keep up. My fault.

Damn right it's no excuse, real jobs are for losers. You should be hardcore and live in your mom's basement all your life ;) :hide:

ChrisLDuncan

01-30-2008, 03:39 PM

Joseph Michael "Ducky" Medwick (1935-39)

Ughhh...the one player I was hoping that would get back to me.

AstrosFan

01-30-2008, 03:55 PM

Damn right it's no excuse, real jobs are for losers. You should be hardcore and live in your mom's basement all your life ;) :hide:

Heh heh. By the way, picks 99 and 153 are both Craig Biggio on the draft page. That should probably be corrected.

Wade8813

01-30-2008, 03:58 PM

You're right - it's supposed to be Joe Gordon.

brett

01-30-2008, 04:16 PM

Fantastic selection! He was my choice for LF if Joey Belle wasn't available; his 1937 season was one of the greatest of all time (and holds the single season record for most Black Ink in a season, non-Tip O'Neill division).

Smoky Joe Wood, 1909-1913.

I had wanted Medwick as I still needed to create a DH. I think he would have been the best DH left at this point.

SJ Wood is one of just 3 pitchers eligible for the HOF for whom no one eligible outside the hall tops in BOTH ERA+ AND innings pitched. (The others are Quiz and Blylevin). I also notice a pretty high strikout rate for that period. What did he throw and how did he throw it?

brett

01-30-2008, 04:19 PM

I totally spaced on this. I've been job hunting, but that's no excuse. I had time to keep up. My fault.

Anyway, I think I've got four picks up. Here's three of them.

Pee Wee Reese 1942-49
Wally Berger 1931-35
Charles Bender 1907-11

I'll think of a fourth pick later.

Edit: Eh, let's try Tom Henke 1986-1990

Not bad. Bender is still fairly comparable to the pitchers who have been going in the last 5 rounds.

Anyway, want to make a trade?

Minstrel

01-30-2008, 04:22 PM

Not bad. Bender is still fairly comparable to the pitchers who have been going in the last 5 rounds.

Anyway, want to make a trade?

You're up, right, Brett? Just checking, since I pick after you.

brett

01-30-2008, 04:22 PM

And patience and plate discipline don't really help you when you're facing pitchers that don't make mistakes.

Exactly. I remember that Greg Maddux talked about how he could make him hit a single instead of walking him-and he was successful in making him put it in play.

I do wonder though how the big K men like Pedro and Randy would do against someone with very low K's like Sewell, Cobb, Dimaggio etc.

brett

01-30-2008, 04:25 PM

You're up, right, Brett? Just checking, since I pick after you.

Wow, that snuck up on me. Well, I've got a 5 man wish list, but I have to prioritize, and take a chance. So I'll take...

...I'll be back in less than 10 minutes.

brett

01-30-2008, 04:36 PM

Plain Vanilla

Eddie Murray '81-'85.

May not be 160, but he's 150 and a couple gold gloves. And probably gone if I don't take him now.

ChrisLDuncan

01-30-2008, 04:39 PM

Edit: Eh, let's try Tom Henke 1986-1990

You only need three years for a reliever.

Westlake

01-30-2008, 04:44 PM

If anyone is interested in my players, i'm in the market for a CF/SP. PM me.

Minstrel

01-30-2008, 05:13 PM

I still need my relief ace, so I'll select:

John Wetteland (1996-98)

brett

01-30-2008, 05:27 PM

I still need my relief ace, so I'll select:

John Wetteland (1996-98)

Excellent choice. I had to flip a coin between him and K-Rod. Actually I liked Rodriguez' higher strikeout rate. Also his year of success as a set-up man, but it was close.

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 05:58 PM

SJ Wood is one of just 3 pitchers eligible for the HOF for whom no one eligible outside the hall tops in BOTH ERA+ AND innings pitched. (The others are Quiz and Blylevin). I also notice a pretty high strikout rate for that period. What did he throw and how did he throw it?

Gas, and better than anybody else.

"Legendary fastballer and pitching contemporary Walter Johnson once said, 'Can I throw harder than Joe Wood? Listen, my friend, there's no man alive can throw harder than Smoky Joe Wood!' Satchel Paige concurred, saying, 'Smoky Joe could throw harder than anyone.'"

Broke his hand bunting in 1913, and pretty much ended his pitching career.

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 05:59 PM

John Wetteland (1996-98)

Yep, he's pretty outstanding. If not for the comparatively low IP totals, he could have been one of the top five or six relievers taken.

Erik Bedard

01-30-2008, 06:19 PM

I sent Brett two emails that were labeled as my #1 choice. Wetteland was in one, Nen in the other.

AstrosFan

01-30-2008, 07:23 PM

You only need three years for a reliever.

Can I change my pick to Dick Radatz 1962-64? I wasn't aware of the three years for relievers rule.

Minstrel

01-30-2008, 07:30 PM

Yes, Wetteland's innings pitched aren't great compared to the top relievers taken, but I think against these lineups innings pitched will be a little less important than top end success in relatively fewer high leverage innings.

ElHalo

01-30-2008, 07:47 PM

Can I change my pick to Dick Radatz 1962-64? I wasn't aware of the three years for relievers rule.

Changing picks, unfortunately, no (Radatz was already taken). The three year rule snuck up on a lot of people who weren't aware of it until it got mentioned after relievers started getting drafted (myself included).

ChrisLDuncan

01-30-2008, 07:48 PM

Can I change my pick to Dick Radatz 1962-64? I wasn't aware of the three years for relievers rule.

He was taken previously.

Wee Willie

01-30-2008, 08:00 PM

Gas, and better than anybody else.

Except Walter.

Wade8813

01-30-2008, 10:58 PM

Just an FYI, the reliever 3 year rule WAS mentioned before anyone drafted relievers....

Erik Bedard

01-31-2008, 04:31 AM

Broke his hand bunting in 1913, and pretty much ended his pitching career.

I thought he slipped fielding a bunt (probably severely screwed up some ligaments).

brett

01-31-2008, 07:15 AM

Just an FYI, the reliever 3 year rule WAS mentioned before anyone drafted relievers....

Post 112 on 1-8, and I think it was mentioned earlier as well.
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=69790&page=5

Wade8813

01-31-2008, 01:19 PM

StBF's time is up. CLD is now on the clock.

ChrisLDuncan

01-31-2008, 03:44 PM

Roger Bresnahan 1903-1907

ElHalo

01-31-2008, 08:47 PM

Roger Bresnahan 1903-1907

Unless I'm mistaken, this is the guy Mark was referring to before; my second favorite position player of all time, his offense is great from C, and his versatility is untoppable.

leecemark

01-31-2008, 09:42 PM

--You are not mistaken, although I don't have quite the same level of admiration for him that you do.

leecemark

01-31-2008, 09:45 PM

--Dwight Gooden 1984-88. Maybe if I don't ride him so hard the magic will last a little longer:cap:. In any case the weight of that 85 season makes if look pretty darn good for the 5 year window.
--I'll make my other pick in just a few minutes.

leecemark

01-31-2008, 09:51 PM

--Al Kaline 1963-67. Maybe the best defensive RFer of all time and an OPS+ on the good side of 150 for this period. He can back up CF too. The only down side is he will miss some games.

ChrisLDuncan

01-31-2008, 11:45 PM

Goose Goslin. 1924-1928

brett

02-01-2008, 05:31 AM

Westlake

02-01-2008, 09:09 AM

Wade and I have agreed to a trade.

Wade gets: Tom Seaver, 15th round pick

Westlake gets: Cy Young, 25th round pick

leecemark

02-01-2008, 09:20 AM

Still over a 140 ERA+ with 200+ innings (one of only a handfull of liveballers left there).

--I wasn't looking to take any deadballer or 19th century players unless they slipped way below where their stats suggested they should slot. I actually only have one pre-integration player (Keller) on my roster so far. I should be on the winning end of most, if not all, league quality debates when we wrap this up. I've avoided anybody with steroid issues too (A-Rod is my only player from that era). Pretty much all my players stats can be taken at face value - or better:dance.

Wade8813

02-01-2008, 11:11 AM

Wade and I have agreed to a trade.

Wade gets: Tom Seaver, 15th round pick

Westlake gets: Cy Young, 25th round pick I confirm the deal.

AstrosFan

02-01-2008, 11:15 AM

I've updated the years for Tom Henke.

Wade8813

02-01-2008, 11:18 AM

STBF is skipped from earlier, so Minstrel's up.

ElHalo

02-01-2008, 12:48 PM

--I wasn't looking to take any deadballer or 19th century players unless they slipped way below where their stats suggested they should slot. I actually only have one pre-integration player (Keller) on my roster so far. I should be on the winning end of most, if not all, league quality debates when we wrap this up. I've avoided anybody with steroid issues too (A-Rod is my only player from that era). Pretty much all my players stats can be taken at face value - or better:dance.

And your Number 2 starter.

My team fairly closely matches my philosophy -- no Rob Deer types, pitchers who strike guys out a lot and have great stuff, hitters who can hit for fantastic average with good, but not too much, power -- and I think that I've been able to do a good job of picking up guys who were far, far better in their peaks than they're generally considered for their careers (Belle, Wilson, Carew, Walsh, Ryan, Wood), and are especially valuable in this type of league.