If Bedard Then What? [Archive]

leecemark

12-18-2007, 04:38 AM

--Rumors are strong that the Mariners are the frontrunners to land Eric Bedard. The good news is that he gives us the TOR pitcher who immediately transforms our rotation from a huge question mark to a big plus. Bedard and Felix are legit ace pitchers, Batista and Washburn are solid vets and we've got several decent internal options for the 5th spot - plus there are still some interesting candiates on the (relative) bargain aisle of free agency or thru lesser trades. The bad news is the deal would skip the cream off our farm system and leave us with an outfield hole for this year.
--Reportedly the Orioles want Adam Jones AND Wlad Balentin, which would leave us pretty thin in the OF (Ichiro and Ibanez being the only MLB OFers left). They also want Morrow, which is fine and Sherrill, which hurts, but we do have several other good -if not as good - LH relievers. We could get Luke Scott back along with Bedard and he would be okay, He might need a platoon partner though and he is not particularly good defensively. A RH hittting 4th outfielder who can play good defense would then become our biggest need for 2008 (and we'd have no prospects anywhere close to the majors). If we are close to pulling the trigger on a deal that includes both Jones and Balentin I hope Bavasi is also working on that 2nd problem.

Disgruntaledmarinerfan

12-18-2007, 04:53 AM

The price for Bedard seems awful high. almost too high for my liking, but we need pitching in the worst possible way. And if that means giving up the cream of the crop major league ready prospects, so be it.
the bottom line is that we need good starting pitchers.

If we go out and get bedard that suddenly makes our starting pitchers our strength, which once was our achillies heel. And really having one below average outfielder in the lineup won't be the end of the world.

My two cents.

SABR Matt

12-18-2007, 10:16 AM

I believe that's what will happen Mark.

If the Mariners eventually do a deal for Bedard that involved both Balentien and Jones (the Orioles seem to be insisting on this) they will probably get Luke Scott back...the Orioles acquired him mostly to flip for something else they want anyway and he solves our OF hole...though you're correct that we should be looking for RH pop to back him up.

It looks like Seattle wants both Bedard and Carlos Silva (*PROJECTILE VOMIT*) so that's probably your fifth starter. :(

leecemark

12-18-2007, 10:48 AM

--Silva:eek:? He might be better than our in house 5th starter options, but he'll cost way more than he is worth and limit our options elsewhere.

Wade8813

12-18-2007, 02:19 PM

It seems like we'd be giving up an awful lot, but I'd much rather need a 4th OFer than a #1 or #2 starter... :rolleyes:

leecemark

12-18-2007, 03:50 PM

--Me too. The Bedard deal would almost certainly make us better in 2008. The downside is it will probably make us worse by 2010 and beyond. Maybe even 2009 if Jones and Morrow - or even Balentin - hit the ground running.

Zito75

12-18-2007, 09:56 PM

How about Carlos Silva? From what I've been seeing, the M's are about to sign him... For your sake I hope not! Talk about a weak free agent market for pitchers... :yawn:

leecemark

12-25-2007, 06:39 AM

--Even though Bedard would give us a better shot at winning the division in 2008 I'm starting to hope the deal doesn't happen. We aren't the favorites even with Bedard (the Angels are clearly the front runners) and we'll be better for longer keeping our top prospects.
--The 2008 Mariners now look like this;
Lineup
C: Johjima - upper half of his position. Clement should be breaking in for 2009, if not helping out this year.
1B: Sexson - some rebound seems likely after his incredibly poor BABIP last year. If not then Ibanez or Vidro could shift to the spot. He is off the books for 2009, freeing up a big chunk of cash for the FA market.
2B: Lopez - below average last year, but still has the potential for be a solid bat for the position. Hope he steps up, since our options are limited (Vidro takes the field, Tug Hulett, Wee Willie).
3B: Beltre - one of the top half dozen or so 3B in the game
SS: Betancourt - has the tools to be a top defensive SS if he stays focused . Has decent pop for the position.
LF: Ibanez - still a solid LH bat. I'd like to see him at 1B or DH, but that probably won't happen till 2009 now.
CF: Ichiro - matches up well with anybody at this position
RF: Jones - would be better off manning our large LF, but a defensive upgrade either way . He'll be hard pressed to match Guillen's 2007 season offensively as a rookie, but has huge upside and should at least be a decent hitter this year.
DH: Vidro - you'd like a little more pop outof this spot, but if he can match last season (a big if) then he is a solid contributor to a solid offense.
Bench
C: Burke - solid job last season and should be okay for what they ask of him.
IF: Bloomquist - decent defensive whereever they need him and provides some speed off the bench
OF: Reed? - nothing left for him to do in the minors. If he isn;t traded and/or we don't sign somebody with a more proven MLB bat he looks like the frontrunner for the 4th OF job. Solid glove and a decent contact hitter, if without any power.
Utl: Morse - okay bat, although probably never going to be good enough to start in a corner spot. Can play anywhere but CF/C, but probably not good enough with the glove to ever hold down a middle IF spot.
Help from the farm
OF: Balentin - if Sexson doesn't rebound or Vidro falls off or Ibanez gets hurt or proves unacceptable defensively then Wlad is the closest thing we have to a MLB ready bat. I wouldn't mind seeing him start the season in a platoon with Raul, but that isn't going to happen. I think he will be a good player (probably better than Guillen in the 2nd half of the deal I'm glad we passed on), but he is not particularly well suited for Safeco. He might help best as trade bait - if we can get a decent return (which I don't especially trust Bavasi to accomplish).
C/1B/DH: Clement - I'd like to see him get most of a season catching regularly in hopes of him being our starter in 2009. He could provide the LH pop we need if Sexson or Vidro falter though. He should be the first option if Jojima gets hurt too.
--Not much else close to ready.
--This should be a decent offense and solid defense. If Ibanez and Vidro can play near last year's level we are at least average at the plate. If Jones can come close to replacing Guillen's 2007 performance then we are above average (and better defensively). If Sexson can rebound and/or Lopez take a step then this could be a very good offense. The odds are against ALL those things comign togehter and the bench is weak, but there is reason to be fairly optimistic.
Rotation
Hernandez: barriing injury, Felix WILL be a ace. If we are going to contend that needs to happen this year
Silva: should be at least average and if the splitter is a for real out pitch to LH batters could be a decent #2 (more likely a decent 3/4 though)
Washburn: decent 4/5 starter. Solid #3 if they are smart enough to get him out before he turns into a pumkin at 100 pitches. We've got the bullpen to support that, especially if Silva is eating some innings ahead of him.
Batista: if he can match last year I'll be thrilled. Should be at least decent and that would give us 4 reliable pitchers.
Morrow/Rowland-Smith - either of these guys have significant upside, although both would almost certainly have some growing pains in 2008. Morrow is a potential ace who would really have benefited from some more minor league time. I'll be rooting for him to open the season in the rotation since they plan to stick him back in the bullpen if he isn't starting. Hopefully he'll either take the step forward and be good enough to let him learn on the job as a starter - or bad enough they will send him to Tacoma to work on his game. Obviously the former is preferable, but the latter is better than wasting him in the pen (not that he wasn't good there, but if they are going to max his value he needs to be starting). RRS I like as a reliever/swignman.
Baek: wouldn't be the worst 5th starter in the league, but he has pretty much no upside.
Ramirez: they can't be serious about running him out there again:grouchy
--Our rotation will almost certianly be better than last year's disaster. Somewhere between a little below and a little above average seems likely. If everything comes together (Felix arrives as a CY candidate, Silva pitches like 2005 and the 5th start is at least solid) then this is a contending rotation.
Bullpen
Putz - light out!
Green - was a dependable setman most of the year.
Sherrill - as good a lefty setman as anybody and can get RH batters out too if they give him the chance
Lowe - if healthy he gives us a power arm to replace Morrow
Huber - an alternative to Lowe with the same concerns
O'Flaherty - very tough on LH batters
Rowland-Smith - a third tough lefty with abilty to go 3-4 innings as needed
White - a solid longman
--Plenty more candidates if any of these falter. The bulpen should again be a strength and provides fewer questions than any other area.
--This looks like a winning team as it stands. Alot of things would have to go right for us to beat the Angels for the division, but we should keep it interesting anyway. Adding Bedard in place of the 5th starter maybe bumps our chances of winning the division this year up from 10% to 25%, but the long term cost would probably be too high. I'd bet we contend more often in the next 5 years without Bedard than with him.

SABR Matt

12-25-2007, 12:31 PM

There is some truth to the point that right fielders are not really available this year and that losing Jones will leave us with an unpluggable hole.

mikeymussina35

12-26-2007, 08:21 AM

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Check this out

ChrisLDuncan

01-09-2008, 10:13 PM

If I were Bill Bavsai I would realistically only go after Bedard if Regains goes with that reported package for Crede and Konerko, because then you would have a solid shot at winning the division. That trade would pretty much decimate the current team, and lower them from a 90 win team to maybe a 84-88 win team. If that's the case, Bedard gives you an honest shot at the divison. Everyone knows that the playoffs are a crap shoot, so if you get in who knows what will happen.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 04:37 AM

No...a good GM doesn't react to the moves of other GMs...he builds a team to win irregardless of the other competition.

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Mariners are close to a deal that would send Carlos Triunfel, Adam Jones and Chris Tillman to the Orioles for Bedard...possibly including Sherrill from outr side for Luke Scott from their side.

In the next few days we should find out how serious this trade is...it wil either get done or the next thing you hear is more blustering from B'More about how Bedard is their opening starter.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 06:11 AM

--I have pretty mixed feelings about the deal. Addign Bedard would upgrade our rotation to championship quality, but the lineup behind them would be much less impressive. The long term benefit is all on Baltimore's side too. Jones will probably develop into an All Star caliber player and the Orioles would have 4 years of that at a reasonable price after Bedard hits the free agent market. Triunfel is supposed to be a very special talent too. Tillman is a very good prospect, but giving up a 19 year old pitcher does bother me too much. Alot can go wrong on their path to the majors. Sherill for Scott wouldn't be a good deal on its own, but to fill the hole created by giving up Jones I like it.
--A couple interesting possibilities arise with Morrow being our untouchable in this deal (I'd much rather give up him than Jones - or probably Triunfel, but thats another discussion). There won't be room for him in our rotation and Bavasi has said he will be in the pen if he is not starting this year. It doesn't make sense to refuse to deal a guy if the bullpen is his fate. Maybe we've got a followup deal in the works?
--The 2 years left on Washburn or Batista's deals may be attractive to somebody. The losers in the Santana and Bedard sweepstakes will still be looking for pitching. Washburn to LA for Matt Kemp or Andre Either would make me feel ALOT better about parting with Jones, but that deal straight up would require Bavasi-like decision making on the other side.
--Maybe Wash for Junior? The Reds need pitching and probably wouldn't mind shedding Griffey's salary. He indicated he'd like to finish his career in Seattle (whether he really meant it is open to question of course). He would provide the lefty pop we need (even if he is injury prone and not much better than Raul in the field now) and the two deals would really energize the fan base. We could throw in Jeremy Reed:happy:.
--If there is no second deal then maybe Batista gets some work out of the pen. He has done it before with some success . Assumign Scott comes over with Bedard we'd have 3 LH hitters starting in the outfield. Giving Balentin the 4th outfield job should give him plenty of playing opportunites with that outfield.

ChrisLDuncan

01-10-2008, 06:39 AM

No...a good GM doesn't react to the moves of other GMs...he builds a team to win irregardless of the other competition.

I dunno about that, I would say a good GM makes moves to make his team a contender. If you are trading away that much young talent, I would only do it under the circumstances that it would make me a contender. For example, dealing away that much young talent can cripple a franchise long term. However, if you have a "win now" strategy it is worth it if you can contend for a championship. However, I don't think adding Bedard makes the Ms better than the Angels as of now. So it would be a bad move on their part because not only do you give away a big part of the future of your team, you aren't even getting a playoff birth out of the deal.

ChrisLDuncan

01-10-2008, 06:41 AM

Batista's deals may be attractive to somebody. The losers in the Santana and Bedard sweepstakes will still be looking for pitching. Washburn to LA for Matt Kemp or Andre Either would make me feel ALOT better about parting with Jones, but that deal straight up would require Bavasi-like decision making on the other side.

I have a lot of disrespect for Ned Colletti, but I don't think even he'd do that trade. HOWEVER, Colletti has a weird hatred for Andy LaRoche, and he should be available, however you'll have to compete with Oakland in the Andy LaRoche sweepstakes.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 06:42 AM

ChrisLDuncan

01-10-2008, 06:47 AM

Why not offer Clement in the trade? He's blocked by Jojhima, and he's an insanely good prospect, so a deal of Clement/Triuneful may be able to get it done.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 06:54 AM

--I'd give up Clement ahead of Jones, since Jones is closer to a sure thing and would be a starter this year while Clement is still a year away. I don't know that catcher is a priority for the Orioles though.
--He isn't blocked by Joh past this year anyway. Johjima will be a free agent in 2009. Also Sexson will be gone (and possibly Ibanez although I'd guess we resign him) opening up firstbase. If Joh is back in 2009 then Clement probably splits time between C/1B and gets alot of playing time - at least a platoon guy if not an outright regular.

ChrisLDuncan

01-10-2008, 06:59 AM

--I agree you only make a deal like this if you think you can at least make the playoffs NOW. Personally I think the Angels are a clear favorite even if the Mariners upgrade the roation (and it would be a terrific one with Bedard). Apparently the Mariners front office disagrees though - or Bavasi just feels like he HAS to go for broke or lose his job.

If the Angels pulled off that reported trade on WGN Radio the other day of:

Howie Kendrick
Ervin Santana
Sean Rodriguez
Nick Adenhart

For:
Paul Konerko
Joe Crede

I'd say that'd open up a time frame where the Ms could compete for the division title. So adding Bedard would make sense, however as it stands now I'd just wait on the kids.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 06:59 AM

Adam Jones is nice, but he's a right fielder in Seattle. His value would be more to us if he were either (a) left handed or (b) a center fielder. He's neither. Now Baltimore is a good place to hit if you're right handed and he'd be their CF...so to the Os, he's a must-have.

Carlos Triunfel is three years away from being an impact major leaguer, and the Mariners have (guess what)...three years of Felix Hernandez left. Triunfel does NOTHING for this team's chances of contending...by the time he's here, we'll be paying big bucks to keep Hernandez or he'll be gone and we'll be back to square one.

Chriss Tillman is a nice prospect but we have like 8 of him. Tony Butler, Phillippe Aumont, Ramirez etc right along side him. He has no real value to the Mariners.

I have no problem with a Bedard/Scott for Jones/Triunfel/Tillman/Sherrill deal.

O'Flaherty becomes our LH set-up man, Rowland-Smith takes O'Flaherty's job. Arthur Rhodes or Horacio Ramirez takes third lefty honors. Morrow starts the year in the pen, and inevitably, when one of the five starters lands on the DL, he gets his experience starting for the big club without having to work 180 innings his very first season starting after just 60 innings previously. Morrow won't be permanently saddled with bullpen duties. If he lights the world on fire in 2008 #6 SP/LR mode, he will supplant Batista from the rotation.

Scott would be a nice fit at Safeco and Ibanez/Ichiro/Scott would leave plenty of room for a big right handed power hitter to platoon his way into the outfield during away games or against tough lefties (Scott is TERRIBLE against lefties). Wlad would be the perfect fit at that point to play Adam Jones '07 in 2008 and then be annointed a starter in 2009 when ibanez' contract expires.

Bottom line...a rotation of Bedard/Hernandez/Batista/Washburn/Silva would destroy the AL West...and our line-up would still be good enough to hit our way into some contention.

CF) Ichiro
DH) Vidro/Clement
3B) Beltre
LF) Ibanez
1B) Sexson
C) Johjima
RF) Scott/Wlad
2B) Lopez/Cairo
SS) Betancourt

not great, but not bad enough to offset a championship caliber rotation.

BTW, everyone thinks the Angels are hots stuff, but their roster makes not one iota of sense to me.

They have no bankable middle infielders, especially if they deal Kendrick for Konerko (that makes zero sense...they already have Kotchman and he'd be out of a job!), they have no one other than Hunter who is a particularly skilled fielder (Vlad has the ability, just not the intelligence), and they have like 462 million starting pitchers...most of whom are mediocre (other than Lackey and Escobar...and yes that includes Mr. Overrated...Jered Weaver). They also have about 199 trillion outfielders, all of whom should be starting for someone and they can only pick four of them.

A partial list:

Reggie Willits
Garret Anderson
Torii Hunter
Gary Matthews Jr.
Vlad Guerrero
Juan Rivera
Brandon Wood (who is not good enough to play any of the infield spots)

That doesn't include the fringier guys they will be totally blocking.

The Angels' roster is a complete mess and IMHO they're going to disappoint some people unless they have like three more trades up their sleeves.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 07:23 AM

--I haven't thought much of the Angels offseason either. Trading Cabrera for Garland didn't make alot of sense. Garland is a decent starter, but they had plenty of candidates to be decent or even very good. Garland would have made more sense for the Ms. He and Silva are fairly equal level talents. I guess we were better off giving up cash than a key member of our 2007 lineup like the Angels did.
--Tori Hunter improves them this year, but a huge 5 year deal for him didn't make a whole lot of sense either. He is probably no better than a league averag eplayer by the middle of it, even if he stays healthy into his middle 30s.
--Korneko would improve their offense a little, but Kotchman is at least nearly as good an overall player - he is pretty slick with the leather. Again it doesn't make much long term sense. And Crede isn't much of a player now or for the future. Giving up Kedrick in that deal is a huge step down from giving him up in a deal for Miguel Cabrera. That deal would have cemented the Angels as a championship level team, but this one probably makes them worse.
--Anyway I think the Angels are the favorite, but they can be had. If we deal the future for Bedard ,this season at least will be enjoyable. I'll go with that and deal with buyers remorse in a couple years when Bedard is gone and our kids are lifting the Orioles back up to the heights of 3rd place in their division:happy:.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 07:58 AM

Also note...it's GOOD that we're spending our prospects on teams we don't compete with. The Nats, the Orioles (who are five years away from seriously threatening the Yanks even with Jones and Triunfel), these are the kinds of teams you never regret trading your best young talents to if it wins you even one world series.

The 2008 Mariners with Bedard have a real chance to WIN THE WORLD SERIES. That's all that matters to me.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 08:02 AM

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 08:04 AM

The only way the Angels can save their off-season IMHO is to trade Kendrick, Kotchman and Santana for Konerko and Crede, trade GMJ or Garret Anderson for a middle infielder, preferably a shortstop and trade some of their SP dept for fresh bullpen depth (their pen looks a little shaky to me right now...just because I don't trust Justin Speier...it's K-Rod and Shields and pray for rain once the starter is gone).

The Angels are a solid team, but Moreno needs to stop with this weird hard-on of his for veteran center fielders...it's hurting their long-term future.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 08:08 AM

--I do like our rotation (with Bedard) in a short series vs anybody. The bigger question is can we get to the playoffs in the first place. Bedard and Hernandez are a potential great duo in postseason play and you could pick your best matchups from Silva, Washburn and Batista depending on the tendancies of your opponent. If Morrow actually puts it togehter this year then this could be a truely dominating rotation.

You have to assume going into any season that your sixth starter will get 10-12 starts. It's just true.

Even if we trade for Bedard, you can pencil Morrow in for 12 starts and 100 innings this year (60 innings in starts, 40 in relief)...which is a good warm-up season to get him ready to be our 3rd starter in 2009 when we either trade Washburn or Batista, put Batista in the pen as he ages or someone gets hurt.

You can never have too many good starting pitchers...Morrow is a good starting pitcher in the making. I believe in his long term potential more than most in the Mariner blog-o-sphere.

Outfielders are pretty easy to acquire in free agency...if we can get Scott as a stop-gap in 2008 and then sign a big thumper in 2009, then who cares about Adam Jones?

leecemark

01-10-2008, 08:22 AM

-Garret Anderson is not going to fetch much in trade and Mathews probably not much more. The Angels lineup is not bad and I don't see how it could get better by trading their best IFer in Kedrick
C: Napoli/Mathis could be okay, but the M's have a solid advantage
1B: Kotchman lacks the power you'd like from this spot, but is better in every other way than Konerko - and flat out better than Sexson
2B: Kedrick can be a star and is clearly better than Lopez
3B: Figgins is better as a utiltiy man and Beltre is a clear edge for the Ms
SS: Izturis? Wood? They must believe or they'd still have Cabrera, but I'll take Betancourt
LF: Mathews Jr is probably about as good an all around player as Ibanez although he gets there is a different way
CF: Hunter is one of the better CF in the league, but Ichiro is better
RF: Guerro is the masher we lack. Perennial MVP candidate. This is the Angels biggest advantage - especially since we don't know who will be filling this spot.
DH: Anderson or Morales are at least as good as Vidro and I'd guess they end up getting more out of the spot since they have more option
Bench: Rivera is good enough to start for alot of teams (including the M's). Willets made a nice contribution last year.
--An injury to Guerro and maybe we have the better lineup. They are probably a little better as is and have more depth, but the difference is maybe not as big as I had been assuming. Again, they are going to be the favorites, but I am starting to feel better about our chances.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 08:30 AM

You have to assume going into any season that your sixth starter will get 10-12 starts. It's just true.

Even if we trade for Bedard, you can pencil Morrow in for 12 starts and 100 innings this year (60 innings in starts, 40 in relief)...which is a good warm-up season to get him ready to be our 3rd starter in 2009 when we either trade Washburn or Batista, put Batista in the pen as he ages or someone gets hurt.

You can never have too many good starting pitchers...Morrow is a good starting pitcher in the making. I believe in his long term potential more than most in the Mariner blog-o-sphere.

Outfielders are pretty easy to acquire in free agency...if we can get Scott as a stop-gap in 2008 and then sign a big thumper in 2009, then who cares about Adam Jones?

--I do assume we will be using at least 6 starters over the course of the year. What I question is whether starting Morrow in the pen again is going to be the best thing for his development. Going from setup man to spot starter throughout the season may or may not work. Working as the longman/spot starter would be somewhat better - except I hope our long man doesn't get much work:happy:.
--We do have sopem decent 6th man candiates anyway. Baek, White, Rowland-Smith and Dickey are all potentially good swingmen. I wouldn't want to PLAN on any of them for the rotation, but whoever is going best amoung them defiantley wouldn't be a disaster when one of our starters is down.
--As for OFers being available in free agency. That is generally true, but can we sign one? And if we do is it a Carlos Lee type overpay? I seriously doubt we are better off signing a free agent than keeping Adam Jones. Jones (and then some) does seem to be the price that we'll have to pay for a #1 starter though. Hopefully the tradeoff is worth it.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 09:08 AM

Re: the Angels...

I agree that they're essentially the mariners offensively but with a big thumper we don't have. I don't agree that Kotchman is better than Sexson. Sexson is NOT the .220 hitter we saw last year...that was historically bad luck on an unimaginable scale. Sexson is going to hit again...he'll be right back to his .260/40/120 tricks when the dust settles. And Kotchman is SPECTACULARLY overrated defensively at least so far. Definitely has the tools to be a good fielding first baseman but has not yet shown the results...sort of like the mariners' Lopez/Betancourt middle infield.

The Angels will probably go with Izturis at short and have Wood around if Izturis flops...but Wood would probably cost as many runs defensively as he earns offensively if you tried to play him there...he's a worse fielder than our own Mike Morse...remember what HE looked like at short?

I'm not sold on GMJ being the qual of Ibanez either FWIW. Defensively, he's solid but the fans overrate him thanks to that one great catch he made in Texas that makes all the highlight reels. He's a B+ corner outfielder. But Ibanez isn't as bad defensively as he looked last year either...he was playing hurt...bad knees, bad feet, back spasms and a hurt shoulder...is it any wonder his range went from average-ish to sucky? The Mariner blog-o-sphere hates Ibby...they shouldn't...he's going to be a bargin star again this year if he stays healthy.

The Halos have more speed, slightly more patience and a better L/R balance than the Mariners, but Seattle isn't that big a step down offensively. If we get Bedard, we're the better team.

leecemark

01-10-2008, 09:19 AM

--Ibanez was playing hurt last year, but he is at an age where he will be playing with various aches and pains every year. He is at best a below average outfielder and was a terrible one last year. Jones in LF, Ichiro in CF and Ibanez in RF would have been a definate inmprovement (just Jones in RF would have been an improvment, albeit a smaller one). Ichiro flanked by Ibanez and Scott is not a pretty picture and will be as bad or worse than our 2007 outfield.
--I do agree Sexson is due for a rebound this year, but he is a notoriously slow starter and can't afford that this year. The boo birds were on him last year and he'll have a very short rope for 2008. Now that he is on the last year of his deal a Mendoza line in the first month would mean a benching and maybe even a flat out release.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 09:31 AM

The only thing that will screw up Sexson is a slow start combined with Clement getting called up to play first base. The Ms have no other viable 1B candidates...

And guess what...if that happens, the Mariners STILL have the better first baseman...because Clement > Kotchman too.

Wade8813

01-10-2008, 01:16 PM

The Halos have more speed, slightly more patience and a better L/R balance than the Mariners, but Seattle isn't that big a step down offensively. If we get Bedard, we're the better team. Slightly more patience? They got more than 100 more walks than we did last year.

In fact, the Mariners had the least walks in the majors, with 389. The mighty Royals had the 2nd lowest at 428, and the Pirates had 463. The Tigers were next at 474. EVERY other team in the major leagues had over 500 walks. That's absurd.

SABR Matt

01-10-2008, 01:38 PM

Yes...SLIGHTLY more patience. A lot of tthw walks the Angels had that the Mariners did not were semi-intentional or IBB type walks to Vlad the impaler and Garret Anderson as teams worked around their only good hitters. They play the same kind of game...both the Halos and Mariners are slap-happy teams that like to put the ball in play and don't walk much.

Wade8813

01-10-2008, 10:42 PM

Oops, I forgot to account for IBB...

SABR Matt

01-11-2008, 06:12 AM

The Mariners received 32 IBB last year to the Angels' 55, and you can be certain that many of walks worked by Vlad and GA that were not technically intentional were pitch-around walks. The only batter that gets pitched around in Seattle is Ichiro.

SABR Matt

01-12-2008, 07:10 PM

News: The Mariners recalled Adam Jones from his winter league team in the middle of the winter league playoffs to meet with him in Seattle. There is a strong probability that this was done because the Mariners and Orioles have reached a tentative agreement on a trade. Keep a close eye on the wire in the next day or two.

leecemark

01-12-2008, 07:34 PM

--If we made the deal I sure hope we get Luke Scott as part the package. It is definately a win now type of move and none of the available free agents can fill Jones shoes in RF.

SABR Matt

01-12-2008, 07:42 PM

We might be getting Brian Roberts. He became mysteriously unavailable to the Cubs today...interesting timing on that

leecemark

01-12-2008, 07:47 PM

--Roberts would be a nice pickup. I heard he had become unavailable to the Cubs earlier than today though. What I heard was Angelos had vetoed that trade. Lord only knows what prompted that meddling jack ass to step in.
--In any case, while Roberts would be an upgrade at 2B he wouldn't help with the hole in the outfield. Maybe they've decided to give Balentin a shot though. The Luis Gonzalez rumors sure don't inspire confidence in a front office that has made some pretty terrible moves the last couple years.

SABR Matt

01-12-2008, 07:53 PM

Luis Gonzalez would be a fine stopgap, Mark. He's nothing special but he'd at least ensure we didn't have a big hole out there.

Plus...he's more leftiness which we need.

And an outfield with Ibanez/Ichiro/Gonzalez would give us plenty of chances to slowly work Balentien into the offense by platooning for Ibby and Gonzo against tough lefties.

leecemark

01-12-2008, 08:05 PM

--Gonzalez can't throw at all. If we stick him in RF we'll be looking back at Randy Winn as a modern day Clemente. He was a pretty good leftfielder once upon a time though. I suppose if Ibanez was moved over to RF we'd at least not be much worse off defensively than we were last year.
--BTW ALL lefties are tough on Raul. A straight platoon would be best , but I guess Wlad playing for either Ibanez or Gonzalez against most/all lefties is the best we should hope for. Maybe he could even play some against RHP with one of the old LH outfielders moving to DH to give Vidro a day off.

Erik Bedard

01-12-2008, 09:01 PM

Is anybody hearing anything about Chris Tillman in a potential Bedard-to-M's deal? A lot of O's fans I've talked to seem to think that he's a better acquisition than Morrow, which I just don't see. A Jones, Clement, Tillman, and Balentien for Bedard deal would make absolutely no sense to me from the O's perspective. Jones would be the only one who fills a need, Balentien is another corner outfielder, adding to the stable, the O's already have Wieters so Clement isn't necessary, and I can't see why everybody likes Tillman so much.

SABR Matt

01-12-2008, 09:08 PM

SABR Matt

01-12-2008, 09:10 PM

To Mark...yeah I know Gonzo has no arm...but he does still have good range out there...he'll catch some fly balls. And offensively, he won't be much worse than he was last year...his plate coverage and batting eye protect him from any sudden declines. He's no world beater, but he's not that much of a drop from Guillen as a total player.

Also note that Gonzalez has no platoon split so Wlad would be more free to help out Ibanez...it wouldn't be a bad situation.

leecemark

01-12-2008, 09:33 PM

--Tillman is a top prospect, but a long way from the majors. Morrow is apaprently not available though. I'd rather trade him than Jones, but Bavasi claims he is untouchable. Triunfel is another (even more) highly regarded prospect who is a long way from the majors. He is only 18, had a solid season in A ball and scouts love him. He is a SS now, but is expected to outgrow the position and move to 3B or 2B before he hits the majors.
--Jones, of course, you know about. He is ready to start in the majors now and should be an all star level player within a couple years. Sherrill is one of the best LH relievers in the majors. Death to LHB, but good enough against RHB that he shouldn't be regarded as a LOOGY.

SABR Matt

01-12-2008, 10:34 PM

Some Mariner fans think giving up Triunfel is way too much to pay...I am personally of the opinion that I'd rather have Morrow than Triunfel since we know Morrow can succeed in the Majors but Triunfel is a looooooooonnnng way from getting here.

I love Tri, but he's 17 going on 18 and had precisely ZERO home runs in his first full season...

leecemark

01-12-2008, 10:44 PM

--Well we know Morrow can be a usefull reliever. We don't know how he will fare as a starter. I'm also not impressed with how the M's have handled him so far. I suspect he has a better chance of fullfilling his potential if he gets moved. If we could part with him instead of Jones I'd be alot happier about the deal.
--I'm ambivelent as to whether I'd rather move him or Triunfel. As much as the scouts love Triunfel there is a long way to go between where he is and being a productive major leaguer. Maybe he'll be the star of our first championship team and maybe he'll top out as the next Jose Lopez - or worse. Same with Tillman, only more so. The flameout rate for pitchers is too high to bet much on an A ball guy.

SABR Matt

01-13-2008, 12:04 AM

Right.

Which makes the deal Jones/Sherrill/two pieces we don't care about for Bedard.

Which...to me is doable.

HDH

01-13-2008, 04:46 AM

If they don't lost Jose Guillen, I think the Mariners are the team to beat in the ALW. Remember, they snuck up on MLB last year? The M's strength was the bullpen and they should avoid subtracting the best pieces from it. They improved the SP slightly with Carlos Silva. The Mariners will win with high average, line drive, speed, and stong pen formula. Defense must improve. Jose Guillen is a significant loss and Richie Sexton is a significant bust. The M's need a 1B that can field exeptionally to improve the middle infielder's fielding even if his hitting is light. Sexon is the wrong part; a Lyle Overby or even a Doug Mientkiewicz TYPE player is more suitable for this team. I think Jose Vidro could be a 1B option if they go after a Marcus Thames type player for DH. If you're looking at LAA players, Reggie Willitts seems more appropriate in this OF.

The Angels win because they have a great manager. They lost a huge piece when SS Orlando Cabrera went to ChiSox. They improved their strengths but did not address their weakest links in the pen and added one big one hole at SS. But again, they do have Mike Scioscia.

Erik Bedard

01-13-2008, 06:02 PM

Yes, Bedard

The last offer I heard from the rumor mill was:

Adam Jones / Chris Tillman / George Sherrill / Carlos Triunfel for Bedard and possibly Luke Scott or Brian Roberts getting involved with Chen going to the Os in exchange.

That's probably not accurate, what I've heard from O's "insiders" is that Triunfel isn't going to be in the trade.

Sherrill is an excellent lefty reliever, and would make sense if they flip him or Jamie Walker to Atlanta for Brent Lillibridge, as has been reported. However, I don't like him as a major part of a Bedard deal, largely because of his age. Tillman looks roughly comparable to Brandon Erbe, perhaps a little better or worse. Triunfel is supposedly a favorite of scouts, but looking at his stats, I can't see why. No HRs, .700 OPS, 37% steals, 38 errors in 96 games, with a 4.56 RF? I know he's 17, but he's got a lot of room for improvement. Jones I like a lot, but without Morrow, I'd vehemently oppose any Bedard-to-M's deal.

SABR Matt

01-13-2008, 06:11 PM

OK...thanks for that info...I'm seeing similar stuff now at the Orioles Hangout forum...seems the Mariners are discussing Morrow again. Jones/Morrow/Sherrill is a steep price but one I'd be willing to pay.

Erik Bedard

01-13-2008, 06:13 PM

SABR Matt

01-13-2008, 06:17 PM

The Os would do very well getting Jones/Morrow and flipping Walker or Sherrill for another piece and Roberts for another couple of pieces.

leecemark

01-13-2008, 08:06 PM

--I don't really understand why Sherril is so locked into the deal. You wouldn't think a set up reliever would be a high priority for a team going nowhere like the O's (although if they already have a side deal for him then that makes more sense). I'd be happier giving up Rowland-Smith or O'Flaherty -even if we had to throw another B prospect in to make the switch.
--The part about Morrow being back in play is okay with me though. If it means keeping Tillman and Triunfel then good bye Brandon. I'm pretty sure we're going to screw up his development if we keep him (and get Bedard) anyway.

Skookumchuck Chuck

01-15-2008, 11:00 AM

Apparently Jones is going back to Winter Ball which according to one Internet source is a sign that the deal is fading. Apparently the Orioles are still interested in Tillman and Triunfel but that the Mets may be turning their interest from Santana to Bedard.

Anyway with Spring Training coming the Mariners (in my opinion) need to make a move on Bedard pretty soon or turn to the free agent market while there is still something left.

If the O's still have interest in some of the M's young talent maybe there's a possibility that even if the Bedard trade goes dead that they could still swing a deal for Brian Roberts and get the other starter on the market or other trade or move Morrow to the rotation and pick up another reliever for the pen to replace him. Being on the East Coast I don't here much about Bartolo Colon and his health. Does anybody know how viable an addition he could be?

off the subject
(Gotta say "Hey," to the Great Bambino out there in Boulevard Lane! What's happening?)

Floyd Butterball

01-25-2008, 08:02 PM

I agree with you Chuck, the Mariners need to get their roster set and completed pretty soon. Both Bedard and Roberts would be great additions to their lineup but it seems as though to me they may waiting too long.

Bartolo Colon's fastball has been clocked as of late sub 90 so he probably won't be their answer, but you never know with Bavazi.

SABR Matt

01-25-2008, 11:17 PM

From what I'm hearing, the Mariners have a significant chunk of the decisionmaking done on acquiring Jason Bay from the Pirates if they acquire Bedard or another ace pitcher and have to shed Jones to do it.

So now...they need to come up with some kind of compromise with the Os here and get it done.

leecemark

01-26-2008, 05:36 AM

--I wouldn't mind Jason Bay as a replacement for Jones, if Jones goes in the Bedard deal. I wouldn't give up too much for him though. Bay was a below average player last season. He won't be 30 until September and is a decent candidate to rebound and be a good player for us this year, but I'd bet against his being a great one. I'd prefer a LH hitter too. If we got Luke Scott mixed into the Bedard deal I think we'd be better off than making a 2nd deal for Bay - unless the Pirates are letting him go at firesale prices (which I don't think is the case).

Floyd Butterball

01-26-2008, 04:36 PM

Bay wouldn't be a bad pickup although he'd be a righthanded hitter going into safeco where righties aren't always comfortable. Some guy on MLB Trade Rumors says he has inside info. on the Mariners signing Brad Wilkerson who I remember reading in an interview last year saying how much he loves to play in Seattle.

Well if they do make an outfield acquisition in the near future we should all be expecting a Bedard/Mariners press conference coming.

SABR Matt

01-26-2008, 04:57 PM

Yeah...the Wilkerson signing would be GREAT news...he's about as good a stop-gap outfielder as you can find on the FA market, he'll be ridiculously cheap, he's a lefty line drive hitter in Safeco...who can TAKE A WALK!...and he almost guarantees that Jones is about to be traded for Bedard.

leecemark

01-26-2008, 05:07 PM

--Meh....Wilkerson has been a pretty marginal hitter for a corner outfielder for 3 years now. He looked like he was going to be a very good player back in his Expo days, but pitchers found ways to get him out and he hasn't been able to adjust. He hasn't been very good at staying in the lineup either. I'd be okay with the signing since it would only cost money and not players, but not exactly excited. He has been looking for a multi-year deal too, which is a drawback to the deal (one year with a club option would be the way to go).

SABR Matt

01-26-2008, 10:34 PM

Don't worry about mult-year deals...the rumor at MLBTR was a one-year deal.

He hit a 104 OPS+ last year in TX...and the Mariners apparently said at FanFest that they want to platoon Wlad Balentien gradualyl into the bigs...so you can expect Wlad to get a lot of Wilkerson's at bats against lefties...and maybe some of Ibanez' too...Wlad might not make the club right out of ST, but he'll be a factor before the end of the year.

SABR Matt

01-26-2008, 10:44 PM

BTW, I don't think Wilky's hitting went south because big leaguers booked him...it's impossible to permanently book a player with his good batting eye. I think he was hurt the whole time he was in Texas and is totally screwed up his timing (hence the sudden jump in K/BB).

If (big if here) he is healthy at the time of his signing, I would expect a rebound.

leecemark

01-27-2008, 06:09 AM

--He wasn't very good his year in Washington either. If injuries have been a factor for three years running - and based on his games played that seems to be at least part of the problem - then it would be awfully optimistic to expect him to play regularly and/or well for us. Hasn't Wilkerson's decline been linked to steroid testing? It may be that he just doesn't have that much natural power. If its a one year deal and Wlad ends up getting a fair look then I'm for it though.
--I'd still rather have Scott, but the Orioles appear to be driving a hard enough bargain that going multi-player with them could be prohibitive. It shouldn't been since a 30 year old outfielder whose nevr been more than a platoon guy/4th outfielder is an unlikley llinchpin of their rebuilding effort. What should be and what will be are not always the same thing and sometimes they aren't even close.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 06:23 AM

Agreed on Scott...I'd like to have him...but it's unlikely, for reasons that are quite stupid.

Wilky was solid in 2005...not GREAT but solid.

And the Mariners have said that they'd like to platoon Wlad into his role...which means he's probably eventually going to force his way into Wilky's PT.

leecemark

01-27-2008, 06:29 AM

--Our free agent options if Jones is traded look like Wilkerson, Gonzalez or Shawn Green. I don't see much difference between them for 1 year and would probably take whichever one was willing to sign a one year deal first. Wilkerson does have the best chance of being a pleasant surprize since he is the youngest.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 06:31 AM

Wilky would also be the cheapest. 1 year 5 mil...not more than that.

leecemark

01-27-2008, 06:43 AM

--Really? I'd heard he was looking for 3/21:eek:. I hadn't heard anybody was offering that, of course:noidea. Does 40 year old Louis Gonzalez expect more than 5M? Would anybody actually pay him that. From what I heard the other team negotiating with him was Florida and they aren't exactly big spenders.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 07:19 AM

I'd heard Gonzalez might sign with San Diego or Houston. Odd.

But yes really...Wilkerson is seen as a part time guy by most orgs because of the injury swarm. He's not going to cost 7X3...the MLBTR rumor was a ONE year deal...not a three year deal. If he costs much more than the 5 mil I quoted (maybe with playing time bonuses) I'll be shocked

leecemark

01-27-2008, 07:23 AM

--If its a one year deal then I really don't care what the cost might be. Its not my money:happy:. A replacement for Jones is likely to be our only remaining deal so if it doesn't commit us to any future payroll limitations it can't hurt us. Maybe he'll be as pleasant a surprise as Guillen was last year.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 07:28 AM

I wasn't surprised by Guillen. He did about what I thought he would. A nice 118 OPS+ and some good grit.

I expect a 100-110 OPS+ from Wilkerson...maybe a little upside to 120 if he has a really good year with the walks.

For the price...he'll be a nice stopgap and it'll be a Guillen-like deal with PT incentives and a mutual option year most likely.

The key to the season remains...can we get Bedard without blowing up the farm. I think we can and I have high hopes that we will for something in the price range of Jones/Tillman/Sherrill/Chen.

ElHalo

01-27-2008, 07:35 AM

The Yankees are still, in a behind-the-scenes way, shopping Hideki Matsui, if you really need an outfielder. He'd be a good fit in Seattle, I'd imagine, alongside Ichiro. Would create a pretty huge revenue stream from Japan if they were both playing there. He's not a superstar, but he'd be a solid option in LF if you need one. The Yanks just need to clear out a spot... they really don't want to put Johnny Damon's glove in CF, and only have DH and LF to fit between Damon, Matsui, and Giambi, so are looking to move one of them.

leecemark

01-27-2008, 07:42 AM

--I'd like Damon's glove and OBP in LF, but his contract is a deal breaker. Is Matsui really a viable glove anymore? If he has the range to handle a big LF (and it was mostly a salary dump by the Yankees:noidea) he might be a nice fit. I wouldn't give up any real value for him though.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 12:57 PM

This just in...some guy at the Seattle Times forum who has 1717 posts and a big following over there is saying that his source...a woman who arranges travel for Mariner players...has told him the team has sent Adam Jones and two other players to Baltimore...the assumption being that they're getting physicals under the care of the Os in preparation for a deal.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 03:26 PM

Jones has been pulled from winter league again...he's not in the line-up during the championship series...this is looking more and more certain.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 04:49 PM

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times now CONFIRMS...

Erik Bedard is a Mariner pending the physicals...Adam Jones and three other players none of whom is George Sherrill...have been dealt to Baltimore. Brad Wilkerson signing is also imminent.

Erik Bedard

01-27-2008, 06:26 PM

IF one of the players is Morrow, then I can almost live with this deal. If not...

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 06:43 PM

Erik Bedard

01-27-2008, 06:51 PM

Gag me.

Though the latest reports are saying that the deal's not done at all.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 06:58 PM

The Orioles are bullshitting. You can't confirm a deal has been agreed upon until you have run the physicals and submitted the paperwork to the league. The deal is done...Geoff Baker is our best beat writer and blogger...he would not say a deal was done if it was not done...and a kid like Adam Jones wouldn't be sticking his neck out and saying he'd been traded if he had not been traded.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 07:17 PM

OK...MLB>com has the story now.

Jones/Tillman/Sherrill (who I thought was out but in fact he's in) and one other player who is not an elite prospect...someone like Chen or Tui

Floyd Butterball

01-27-2008, 07:42 PM

Obviously if it is Sherrill the Mariners are expecting Morrow to take his spot in the pen. I doubt the Mariners will be putting both those guys in the package. It keeps their bullpen in tact.

SABR Matt

01-27-2008, 07:55 PM

O'Flaherty would be the new lefty set-up man (his split against LHB is very good). Morrow would stay in the pen for at least the first part of 2008...maybe switch with Batista if he impresses and be available to start if anyone gets hurt.

Floyd Butterball

01-27-2008, 08:13 PM

That's reasonable. The key thing though is they kept their depth in the pen and the pitching staff has a lot of flexibility. Now let's see who they get for the outfield. I'm betting on Wilkerson and it seems if the Wilkerson rumor was true that he agreed in principle on Friday to a one year deal that the Mariners wouldn't announce it until after they'd announced the Bedard deal.

Rennie Stennett

01-28-2008, 12:02 AM

I would have rather-ed give up Morrow than Sherrill, but that's the way it goes. So, did Bavasi pull off a good trade here ? In a year or sixth months down the road will this be a good move ? If Bedard goes 16-7 and Jones hits .320 will we be happy ? I like the trade. They can call Bedard the number one guy and take some pressure off King Felix, who will be the number two guy at the ripe old age of what 21 ? This will give the M's a L-R-L-R-R rotation if they decide to go Bedard, The King, Washburn, Batista and Silva. Will this get us to 95 wins and challenge the division ?

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 12:18 AM

Jones isn't going to hit .280 this year...let alone .320. And with this team, Bedard (who went something very close to 16-7 with the horrid Os), Bedard could easily win 20 games.

It's a GREAT deal if Bedard signs an extension (which I believe he will).

It's a solid deal even if he does not.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 12:48 AM

It seems like an alright deal. I'm not going to praise it, but I'm certainly not going to knock it.

One thing, though, is if in hindsight we become unhappy that the trade was made, we don't blame Bavasi any more than we do right now. So many people are fine with a trade, then use hindsight to blast the management. That's nonsense, and I'm tired of it.

J W

01-28-2008, 09:08 AM

No...no Morrow

We are reasonably certain that Jones and Tillman are in the deal along with two other players.

We are reasonably certain that the other two players are NOT George Sherrill, Brandon Morrow, Carlos Triunfel or Wladimir Balentien.

They are probably coming from a list of players that includes Jeff Clement, Matt Tuiasosopo, Tony Butler and Yung-Chi Chen

If that's the case, I as a Baltimore fan would be happiest with Clement and Chen. I don't know what the team sees in Tillman per say.

Ah, I see Sherrill is part of the deal... not sure why the Os want him either, he's 30 years old. He did very well last season, but he'll be several years older by the time the Orioles may contend.

Out of everyone I want to see Clement, but I'm probably in the minority. Clement is ready right now.

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 12:13 PM

You are correct JW...Clement is the one you want if you can get him. I would be highly upset if the Ms traded both Jones and Clement for Bedard. I don't think that's going to happen, but it remains possible.

The thing is...Peter Angelos is a tool and he won't be around today to officially sign off on the deal which means we won't know for sure until tomorrow whether the deal has been agreed upon or not...Angelos has a history of jerking people around like marionettes and could still nix this deal.

Rennie Stennett

01-28-2008, 12:45 PM

Jones isn't going to hit .280 this year...let alone .320.

are you setting the over/under at .279 this year for Jones ? could be an interesting proposition.

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 01:01 PM

I'll take .279 and below...you can have the over...we'll see who's right. :)

The dude isn't going to hit for average with his sky high K rates and bad K/BB

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 02:20 PM

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 02:22 PM

After seeing the "reported" offer I'd say it's a good trade for both sides. I have tempered my opinion on Bavasai, the first reports of Jones/Wlad/Clement/Tillman I saw made me laugh, thinking "WOW, Bavasai has reasserted himself as the worst GM in baseball" now it looks like a good deal for both sides.

B+

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 02:27 PM

You are correct JW...Clement is the one you want if you can get him. I would be highly upset if the Ms traded both Jones and Clement for Bedard. I don't think that's going to happen, but it remains possible.

You have Johjima as catcher and I'd say he'll be a top five catcher next season, which makes Clement expendable. If it were Jones/Clement/C+ prospect for Bedard that would be a good deal.

The thing is...Peter Angelos is a tool

Understatement of the year, he's been sh*ting on Os fans left and right for the past ten years.

and he won't be around today to officially sign off on the deal which means we won't know for sure until tomorrow whether the deal has been agreed upon or not...Angelos has a history of jerking people around like marionettes and could still nix this deal.

That he does. However, if this deal doesn't go through, combined with the Cubs' problems in acquiring Roberts; the other MLB owners have GREAT reasons to file a petition to have his team taken away from him.

J W

01-28-2008, 02:41 PM

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Peter Angelos may be nixing the deal... knowing Rosenthal and his history with Mr. Angelos, I just have to shake my head in shame.

M's deal for Bedard on hold (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7726024/M's-call-Jones-home,-deal-for-Bedard-may-be-close)

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 04:55 PM

He's not reporting that Angelos IS nixing the deal...he's reporting that he MIGHT...if Bedard will sign an extension with the Os.

I don't think Bedard will do that now that he knows he might get to go to a decent club if he refuses.

Wade8813

01-28-2008, 05:39 PM

You have Johjima as catcher and I'd say he'll be a top five catcher next season, which makes Clement expendable. If it were Jones/Clement/C+ prospect for Bedard that would be a good deal. Johjima's good, but it's important to have a backup catcher. And Johjima's getting a bit old, for a catcher.

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 06:13 PM

I consider Clement the most valuable prospect we have...NOT Jones. Clement is a better fit for Safeco than anyone else we have. Ginormous power, left handed hitter and great plate discipline. We need that.

leecemark

01-28-2008, 06:24 PM

--Clement is a great prospect - if he sticks at catcher. If he ends up at 1B then I'm not sure his bat is all that special. Johjima isn't signed past this season and I have heard anything about extending his contract. I'd be happy to have him back for another year or two. Ideally with Clement sharing the job and also getting some time at 1B/DH by 2009.

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 06:32 PM

I disagree...if Clement is moved to 1B, he's still going to be a plus bat IMHO. His swing is identical to Jim Thome's swing. He's not as developed yet, but IMHO, he could be an easy .270/.370/.520 hitter.

leecemark

01-28-2008, 06:37 PM

--Thats possible I suppose. I hope he does turn out to be that good, but you are projecting him to be a better hitter in the majors than he has been in the minors.

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 07:40 PM

He was pushed through the system too fast to make projections based on his minor league numbers. Most Mariner prospects come through with mediocre looking stats because they are rushed to help expedite their learning curve. Give Clement a couple of years in the big leagues to learn the pitchers and you will have your premiere Konerko-level slugger.

BTW, the deal has been nixed by Angelos...reportedly because Adam Jones leaked that he'd been traded before the Orioles wanted that info released.

This just confirms Angelos' status and the biggest pile of $hit in the AL. If Erik Bedard is not a Mariner by opening night, the team has grounds to sue the Orioles for putative damages due to lost revenue. That is NOT an acceptable reason to torpedo a team's chances of contending...that is not an acceptable reason to renege on a verbal contract...and you can bet there was a verbal agreement on this deal before Angelos got his fat hands on this situation and f*ck*d it all up.

Yeah...I'm furious right now.

leecemark

01-28-2008, 07:47 PM

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 07:52 PM

The best Orioles insiders are saying the deal is off.

We think they got their information from Pieper (one of the big wigs in the Os' front office). Nothing officially released to the press yet, but I agree. If MacPhail wants to keep what little respect he's earned in baseball, he should resign tomorrow and back Bavasi in his complaints to the league about Angelos' childish conduct. Bavasi and MacPhail worked their asses off for two months to make this deal happen...MacPhail was told he had autonomy on baseball operations and now the deal is off because that fat-headed son of a bitch decides he doesn't like that Adam Jones broke the story?? This is completely outrageous.

Edgartohof

01-28-2008, 07:53 PM

--Is the deal officially off? I hadn't heard that. If true and McPhail has any self respect he'll have to resign. He was pretty clear about his taking the job only because Angelos promised not to interfere with his decisions.

Here is a link to an article on the subject on MLB.com:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080128&content_id=2357816&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 07:55 PM

that's the official word, yes, edgartohof...it doesn't make specific reference to the deal being "off"...but the insiders I know in Baltimore are saying it's off and they're no happier about it than I am.

Unbe-freakin-lievable. We FINALLY make a serious play for the ring and Peter Angelos thinks he has the right to stand in our way because he wants to dictate when the info reaches the press. I seriously hope no one accepts his phone calls ever again.

leecemark

01-28-2008, 08:12 PM

--Well the good news is we're got the best fourth outfielder we've had in recent memory. I wasn't crazy about Wilkerson as our starting RFer, but he will give us some nice pop off the bench. He'll be a fine backup at 5 spots (all three OF, 1B and DH) and insurance in case of injury or implosion. Assuming that deal doesn't fall apart when he realizes there isn't a full time job for him.

SABR Matt

01-28-2008, 08:31 PM

The Bedard deal isn't TOTALLY off...it's off for now while the Orioles try to save face by offering Bedard a big contract extension.

Which I fully expect Bedard will reject.

At which point this deal may be revisited.

ChrisLDuncan

01-28-2008, 11:01 PM

if Bedard will sign an extension with the Os.

That'll be the day

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 12:10 AM

The only card Angelos has to play right now is to offer an extension to Bedard. When Bedard tells him to jump up his own ass and die, the deal will hopefully be revived.

Rennie Stennett

01-29-2008, 02:46 AM

I'll take .279 and below...you can have the over...we'll see who's right. :)

The dude isn't going to hit for average with his sky high K rates and bad K/BB

I like your side of it. Perhaps Jones will have a big first half before the league figures out the leaks in his swing. Then he'll have to work on it.

J W

01-29-2008, 08:27 AM

WNST was discussing this situation today; they made a good point IMO. Whether these reports regarding Angelos are true or not; the Orioles are now in a sense forced to pull the trigger on this deal (as far as I know Seattle is waiting for us).

Otherwise, it would be a PR disaster, and a disaster amongst the baseball community, and the right thing for McPhail to do would be to resign (or else his reputation would take a huge hit--good luck trying to be commissioner).

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 11:07 AM

Wade8813

01-29-2008, 12:46 PM

Yeah...when Bedard rejects their token extension offer, the Os will be stuck wanting to trade him and the Mariners will have all the leverage because NO ONE ELSE in baseball is going to step up and make an offer now.It would be interesting if the Mariners used that position to get a slightly better deal, although I don't think they'd do that.

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 12:50 PM

I'm not sure it wouldn't be the Mariners looking foolish if they offered a less impressive deal and then got flat-out rejected by MacPhail (who would already have resigned if I were him), after this whole mess.

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 01:18 PM

No...Bavasi is a straight shooter. He offers what he believes is fair and sticks with it...when the Os inevitably come back to us and ask to talk again, Bavasi will just say "my offer is still on the table."

Erik Bedard

01-29-2008, 02:42 PM

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 03:22 PM

Nah...Bavasi made his fair offer...he'll stick to it...he's not the type to change his opinion based on another deal.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 03:35 PM

After seeing how cheap the Mets got Santana, I don't think we'll see the Bedard deal done any time soon, if at all. MacPhail won't cave to anything lower than what was agreed to, and Bavasi probably won't pay more for Bedard than was already paid for Santana.

If MacPhail is smart, he'll sell now. The Os may be able to get more now, simply because Bedard is under contract for two years, rather than losing all leverage. I would have taken the offered deal. Jones could be a beast.

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 03:37 PM

Yeah...you can bet right now that MacPhail is in Angelos' office screaming at him...begging him to back down and make the frickin' deal because they just lost all of their ability to claim that Bedard is worth MORE than the Ms offered....our offer is as good as it gets.

ChrisLDuncan

01-29-2008, 03:40 PM

Angelos takes a massive sh*t on Os fans, yet again. Tomorrow I bet he'll double the ticket prices for Os fans, yet sell tickets to away fans at a discount price. TERRIBLE owner, easily the worst in sports. If you ask me, Bud should take the team away from him.

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 05:05 PM

My Os insiders are saying the Santana trade has forced a confrontation in the Os' front office and that now the Bedard trade will go forward...they think tomorrow.

J W

01-29-2008, 06:58 PM

Awesome. (if if if)

Sorry to all the Seattle fans; looks like this melodrama has spilled into your board. If it means anything, we've been like this for (what, two weeks?) now. I had to stop at one point.

Is running a baseball team anything like this where you are?

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 07:45 PM

No.

The Mariners' front office is actually amazingly coherent. Ms fans are somewhiat annoyed at how cautious Seattle is sometimes, but they're responsible and they always make sure there's a strong consensus BEFORE they talk trade...more importantly, they're classy. Dealing with the Mariners is usually a pleasure compared to dealing with other franchises. Bavasi is a straight shooter...very up front with you and always trying to make win-win trades that both sides can live with.

leecemark

01-29-2008, 08:02 PM

--That is mostly true. Bill Bavasi is a better man than he is a GM. Bavasi has been very willing to GIVE away a player who doesn't fit it his plans rather than seeking full value. He is also willing to significantly overpay once he sets his sights on a player - and often its hard to see what he saw in that player in the first place.
--The ownership group does dictate the course of the team rather than leaving it to Bavasi and the real baseball men. With the Mariners though at least deals are apporved in principal by management before they are negotiated with other teams. We don't have the end game type meddling Angelos provides in Baltimore.

SABR Matt

01-29-2008, 08:10 PM

Yeah...I think Bavasi's failing is often that he's too honest. He's got "truth terrets."

When he wants your p;layer, he'll make his best offer first, which is unfortunate because it's part of the reason we often pay too much in trade.

Rennie Stennett

01-30-2008, 06:03 PM

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2008/01/hear_the_adam_jones_interview.html#more

there's a link to the interview about half way down. look for (right here). I wish I could put it here but I don't have the technology. It sure sounds like it was a done deal.

also, Steve Kelley: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/stevekelley/2004153156_kelley30.html

SABR Matt

01-31-2008, 02:41 PM

Bedard deal is now imminent. The Mariners have signed Wilkerson which was the domino that was supposed to fall AFTER the Bedard trade....they are confident that the Bedard deal will go through.

Rennie Stennett

02-01-2008, 06:28 AM

ESPN:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3224091

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3221864

Peter Angelos, what a weasel !

HDH

02-06-2008, 01:45 PM

This has been the biggest year for trades that I remember and I've been devoted to MLB since approximately 1971... All the talk has been about the Johan Santana trade, the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrel Willis trade, the Miguel Tejada trade, or the Brad Lidge, Delmon Young, Dan Haren, Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Edgar Rentiria, Lastings Milledge trades. But, the Bedard trade is the smartest trade this winter by any team IMO.

SABR Matt

02-06-2008, 02:09 PM

Edgartohof

02-06-2008, 10:30 PM

Smartest from who's perspective?

I think the right answer is BOTH teams...both get exactly what they need. But I don't think most of the fans around here see the Mariners as having done well in this deal.

We may not have done great in this deal, but we didn't do badly. We god rid of some good talent, which doesn't help our future out too much, but we helped out our immediate needs.

I mean Bedard isn't really old. He'll be what, 29 next year. He isn't exactly a spring chicken, but he'll do. We needed a good/great starting pitcher for this season and that's what we got. Of course we had to part with a great reliever and a top prospect in return, but for our immediate outlook, we are ahead.

And it pains me to say this (as I am an Adam Jones fan), but all he is right now is a prospect. He hasn't done anything at the big leagues yet. Admittedly, he really hasn't had a chance, but for all we know, he could be a bust (Jeremy Reed anyone?). So this could really end up a good deal (or on the same hand, it could turn out bad for us).

SABR Matt

02-06-2008, 10:44 PM

Jones worries me. He's got a career K/BB ratio of over 3. A lot of those kinds of prospects flame out horribly...think Corey Patterson. :) He's not that bad, but there's no guarantee he turns out to be a stud.

Butler is damaged goods IMHO...I doubt he does what we think he will right now. Tillman is a great prospect but we have several others (Aumont, JC Ramirez etc) who are also good prospects...Mickolio is a rnadom reliever. Sherrill is replaceable (O'Flaherty has a great LHB split), and we have Wilkerson and Wlad Balentien to pick up the slack from Jones' departure...the deal makes all kinds of sense.

J W

02-07-2008, 07:20 AM

last full season in AAA:

Jones - 420 AB, .314/.382/.586, 36 BB /106 K

Patterson - 367 AB, .253/.308/.387, 29 BB /65 K

...and what I think may be Jones' actual closest fit, Mariners style:

Mike Cameron - 120 AB, .275/.370/.533, 18 BB /31 K

Cameron didn't get a lot of AAA experience but considering Jones' free swinging and rocket arm, he reminds me of your former CFer. Cameron's career MLB stats, 162 game avg:

566 AB, .251/.341/.445, 72 BB /156 K... 22 HR, 90 runs, 82 RBI

Not the amazingness of "Torii Hunter +" but I'll take it in CF considering Jones' reputation defensively.

leecemark

02-07-2008, 07:34 AM

--Jones doesn't have Cameron's batting eye. He will probably never walk as much as Cammie. He could hit for more average, although I doubt he is going to regularly hit .300. He will probably develop a little more power too - or at least more consistent power.
--Jones has all the tools to be a terrrific dender. He is very fast and has a great arm. He is not a polished defender at this point though. He routes are not the best and he dropped some balls last year - looking pretty bad in the process. He is probably an average defensive centerfielder at this point and a good corner guy. He should develop into a good CFer, but probably not on Cameron's level.
--Tori Hunter is a good comp for him. His probable upside is Hunter with some extra power. His probable downside is Hunter with a little less defense. Of course he could take another couple jumps forward to superstardom, but that seems unlikley. About the same chance as he crashes and burns. Totally unscientific, but I'd say maybe 10% chance superstar and another 10% chance he is a bust. 20% he is a rich man's Tori Hunter and 20% he is a poor man's Hunter. 40% chance he is right in the Tori Hunter neighborhood as a bal player.

SABR Matt

02-07-2008, 11:31 AM

That's about right Mark.

I just brought up Patterson because Os fans are familiar with him...he's a cautionary tale about bad K/BB ratios being a bad sign.

HDH

02-07-2008, 01:42 PM

Safeco Field in Seattle is more suited for pitchers than Camden Yard in Baltimore; I would expect Bedard to perform better in Seattle and his record to improve on his new and very good team. Conversely, Jones moves to Camden Yards which is more of a hitter's park than Safeco Field. His new team is rebuilding and I expect Jones to get a better opportunity, be allowed to fail if needed, and have a better chance to stick longer than if he was on a pennant contender. Furthermore, just remember Todd Van Poppell and Joe Borchard, the two all-time great, can't miss, untradeable prospect ... busts.

Rennie Stennett

02-08-2008, 06:45 AM

PI:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/

J W

02-08-2008, 06:46 AM

Please don't bring them up :hp

Taking a look at Torii Hunter... he does look like a better fit (didn't play on the Mariners, is all). I'm surprised he's only a 2-time All-Star; I always assumed he was a perennial.

162 game averages:
590 AB, .271/.324/.469, 42 BB /114 K, 25 HR, 88 runs, 93 RBI

...Camden Yards is more of a hitters' park than Safeco (like just about every other park) but it is deceptively not a hitters' haven like people have thought in the past. It is a terrible ballpark for doubles, and last season's triples mark was an aberration. That said, Jones should see plenty of opportunity to hit HRs, especially through the summer months when the ball carries more.

And Bedard, he's really going to enjoy Seattle's defense out there in Safeco. I am excited, even, to see what numbers he can put up in the AL West stadiums.

leecemark

02-08-2008, 06:56 AM

--The Mariners defense isn't that great. Safeco should boost his numbers though. Its got a big LF (although the guy we have covering it is a large part of why our defense is not that great) and the ball doesn't carry very well. Bedard should give up very few HR. The left side of the infield is very good so that should help him.

J W

02-08-2008, 08:17 AM

Yeah; he's the kind of pitcher that hitters have a hard time getting solid contact off of. He gets a lot of pop-outs and such. Hence the high K rate. And he's got a brain -- he'll be smart enough to cater to the team's strengths. Although he's bullheaded enough to perhaps expect the team to cater to his pitching style instead.

HRs were probably his biggest problem once he got the walk rate down (as if 19 given up were a horrible number). Moving away from HR friendly Camden Yards could mean a sub 3.00 ERA next season, dare I say.

Ultimately, Bedard can win 20 games for you next season and for seasons to come... but ONLY if the bullpen can close his games out. Bedard piles up the Ks and never has the longevity to last eight innings, much less nine (he has precisely one complete game to his credit). Many games, you'll need to send more than just your closer out there to protect the lead.

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 10:27 AM

Our pen is outstanding, and looking at Bedard's spray chart, he's an extreme ground ball pitcher and his ground balls tend to bias toward shortstop...so YuBet is going to get a workout. He and Beltre are the strong side of the D though...hopefully they will work well together when he pitches.

I expect sub-3 ERAs out of Bedard because unlike the USS Mariner crowd...I don't view his K-rate spike as a fluke.

leecemark

02-08-2008, 10:37 AM

--Our closer is outstanding. Our setup guys could be good, but that is more of a question mark. Did the league figure Sean Green out or did he just wear down late last year? Will Mark Lowe or Jon Huber be healthy and effective? What will Brandon Morrow's role be? Can Eric O'Flaherty rise to the challenge of picking up George Sherrill's high leverage outings vs LH hitters? Or does Aurther Rhodes have somethign left in his tank? Will we make the mistake of giving high leverage innings to Chris Rietsma or some other experienced, yet horrible reliever (Rick White and John Parrish V2:eek:)? We have enough options I believe our bullpen will be at least okay, but Putz is the only guy I'm sure will be a shutdown option.

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 10:54 AM

We have 15 qualified candidates for 7 bullpen slots, Mark. LOL

Seriously...I'm not worried about the pen. Green didn't face because the league started hitting the crap out of him...he was still a ground ball pitcher...he faded because his command, which has always been questionable, got worse by a giant leap as he got tired. It happens. No I don't think he's going to be an absolute lock-down guy, but I also don't think he's our 8th inning pitcher. That's going to Mark Lowe, who IMHO will be healthy this year. Brandon Morrow might take on more of a MR/LR role this year to keep his arm stretched out in case we need him in the rotation. And I have absolutely no worries about O'Flaherty getting out lefties. He was murder on lefties in the minors...he was murder on lefties in the majors...he'll always be murder on lefties. O'Flaherty takes the LOOGY role, Rowland-Smith takes the lefty set-up man role and if we need a third lefty, Rhodes, Jiminez and HoRam would be the remaining options.

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 11:58 AM

Fox Sports says the deal is official per Ken Rosenthal.

Yankeebiscuitfan

02-08-2008, 12:30 PM

ChrisLDuncan

02-08-2008, 12:36 PM

--Our closer is the best reliever in baseball

fixed :hide:

Wade8813

02-08-2008, 01:02 PM

I'm not worried about our bullpen at all. They were great until they got overworked. (Technically, Putz might not be better then Papelbon, but oh well...).

As far as what we sent to Baltimore, we did send a lot of guys, but I think we got the better end of the deal. Pitching is much harder to come by than hitting. Also, while you certainly need young talent so that some of them will work out, it's also safe to assume that when you trade a lot of it away, some of them won't.

J W

02-08-2008, 01:02 PM

done deal.

From the official team website (http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080208&content_id=2368350&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal)

Enjoy a bit of Canadian pitching, gentlemen. :highfive:

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 01:12 PM

Press conference at 5...I'm so ready to see Bedard in an Ms hat. :D

Wade8813

02-08-2008, 01:31 PM

You didn't specify which time zone... ;)

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 01:33 PM

Eastern.

So basically...in 20 minutes.

Zito75

02-08-2008, 02:37 PM

But about the Bedard trade. Is five "prospects" not a bit too much for one pitcher? I know that quantity isn't always the same as quality, but I really think that Seattle shipped a bit too much farm hands to Baltimore.

What do you think?

Agree 100%. Especially to acquire a guy that will be on the DL by June.

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 04:43 PM

LOL!

Such confidence in your belief...such MISGUIDED confidence.

The last time Bedard had anything major go wrong was 2003. A strained oblique wouldn't have stopped him in 2007 except his Os were so sucky it wasn't worth gutting through it. He'll be fine.

Erik Bedard

02-08-2008, 04:53 PM

Exactly. He could have come back in mid-September, but Trembley thought that it wasn't worth it. And I don't blame him.

Actually, his 2005 was cut short because of an injury as well. That's actually what I consider to be the point where everything went wrong that year.

Zito75

02-08-2008, 06:51 PM

Sounds like an avatar bet to me. If Bedard goes on the DL after July 1, I'll change my av and sig and wear it for a month- you guys decide to what.

Rennie Stennett

02-08-2008, 08:21 PM

Yes the M's give up some prospects/talent in this trade but would you agree that we seem to have more good prospects the past few years which equates to good scouting for the draft. :dance

I look forward to Spring Training to get a look at these guys.

SABR Matt

02-08-2008, 08:59 PM

Oh man...that is a sucker bet Zito75. :)

You are so ON!

And WHEN Bedard stays healthy past June, you will have a sig praising Bill Bavasi's forward thinking and desire to win and your avatar will be something in Mariner blue and teal. :D

Wade8813

02-09-2008, 12:45 AM

So, an A's fan will have a sig praising Bavasi, when almost every M's fan hates Bavasi? Nice. :rofl:

SABR Matt

02-09-2008, 02:22 AM

I don't hate Bavasi. I didn't even before the Bedard deal. He made one really high profile mistake (HoRam for Soriano) and one really bad free agent acquisition (Everett)...but otherwise his moves have generally worked out far better than the USSM crowd would have you believe. You can't blame Bavasi for Aurilia or the Guillen trade BTW...he didn't assume full control over personnel moves until mid-season.

In fact there's a string of solid bargain buys in free agency and three solid trades.

Vidro for Broken Body and Wild Thing's Evil Twin
Bedard for Jones/Sherrill/grab bag
Garcia for Reed/Olivo/Morse

Other minor deals haven't been so hot...Broussard was an OK acquisition but Eduardo Perez for the Indians' opening day starting shortstop in 2008 is just BRUTAL. Fortunately...brutal in a way that didn't negatively impact the franchise.

I think he is an average GM...nothing special, but a very good PR guy, good with people...EXCELLENT at signing club controlled players and working out deals quickly when not working with the Orioles. Solid at picking bargain bin players. Great at building a scouting team and developing a minor league system.

The shrill acrimonious anti-Bavasi screeds around the web have no influence on me.

leecemark

02-09-2008, 05:58 AM

--The Vidro deal looked horrible when made, but has worked out better than expected. Vidro will have do as well or better this season for me to call it a good deal though. The Garcia deal was the opposite. It looked like a great deal when we made it, but didn't work out very well at all.
--Bavasi was undoubted told he had to move Guillen. He didn't have to give him away for nothing though. He got nothing back for Randy Winn either. I was no fan of Choo and liked the Broussard deal - but does Bavasi deserve some blame for Big Ben rotting on the bench? Well yes he does - since he got Vidro to take his job. The Perez deal was a total bust and DID hurt the franchise. Wouldn't you rather have Caberra penciled in as out Opening Day 2B than Lopez?
--Bavasi has made some okay moves, some terrible ones and no REALLY good ones (time will tell on the Bedard deal). I think BB would be a terrific player development guy. He is, at best, a below average GM. He gets fixated on wanting a particular player or filling a particular spot and tends to overpay - in both money and talent - to get them. When he or the org sours on a player he just dumps them without maximizing the return.
--Anyway what might you wager against Zito? You are already sporting a Mets av rather than a Mariners one. I forget - what was it that caused you to bail on the team last year?