Trade Rios for Lincecum?

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

In my second poll of the day, I'd like to ask whether or not you would pull the deal that has been talked about: Rios to the Giants for Tim Lincecum (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7981).

An article on it can be found here: http://torontosun.com/Sports/Baseball/2007/12/06/4710138-sun.html.

I'm not too sure what to think. On one hand, you can never have too much pitching. Having a young stud like Lincecum in the rotation could never be a bad thing. He's been touted as a great pitcher, and I would love to see him as a Blue Jay.

On the other hand, there are two things saying that this might be a bad idea. First of all, we had great pitching last year. With a rotation of Doc, Burnett, Marcum, McGowan (assuming they're all healthy) Lincecum would be the 5th starter. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, but could be considered overkill. Which leads to point #2, which is the fact that the offense was terrible last season, and Rios was the only bright spot in the first half. Trading the one guy that was dependable last year for a pitcher that we might not need doesn't seem smart.

So I guess it's a question of whether or not Wells and Glaus and Thomas etc.. would be able to pick up the slack if Rios left. If the answer is yes, then I'd say go for Lincecum.

[starkeeper]

This is what I posted in the "Trade for Santana" thread. It remains my opinion as I consider the Lincecum deal.


I would be very nervous to make such a significant move for a pitcher. Any pitcher really!! They can be so fragile. If it doesn't work out you can set your teams plans back years. I really like the way the Jays have developed their staff. I could see a move to replace Burnett, but not at the cost of Rios or someone with that kind of promise. The Jays will be healthy in the spring and with a healthy Ryan, Wells, Overbay and maybe Glaus they have as good a shot as anyone. Accardo as a set up guy and Jannsen with another years experience could be a 5th starter. I don't see J.P. messing too much with this kind of potential. Mind you, if they get off to a slow start I think he will be less patient then he has been in previous years. His job will depend on it.

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

I would trade Rios. I posted in the Giants forum on it:
As a Jays fan, I'm nervous about trading Rios, who was our only dependable bat in the first half last season. But for a guy like Lincecum, I'd do it for sure. The guy looks great, and I can see him being a great #2 behind Halladay in a few years, and a solid part of the McGowan-Marcum-Lincecum trio for years.You can win a pennant with no hitting if you have great pitching. And I expect Wells, Hill, and Thomas to step it up, so I would pull this deal in a second.

[PJ-34]

Rios is the package. He is everything but a pitcher. He can be anywhere in the lineup. He can run, jump, catch, hit, and hit for power. He is everything a player is. Wouldn't trade him for ANYTING seriously.

[Chris from NY]

Thomas is aging, and as good had Hill has shown to be, I wouldn't pencil him in as a big hitter just yet. I really think we're talking about a truly special player in Alex Rios. I wouldn't give him up without expecting a couple of surefire money in the bank prospects or major league ready commodities.

[Big_Mac]

young pitchers like lincecum are hard to find these days. im all for this trade, even though it is risky.

[Westlake]

Absolutely. Lincecum has the best young live arm in baseball. 150 Ks in 146 innings, 111 OPS+ in his rookie year. Soon to be ACE.

[Chris from NY]

So many fantastic young pitchers have fizzled out though. Rios is a proven commodity. I would not be happy if a potential trade ended up basically being Rios for Linecum. I think the Blue Jays are in a position where they can demand more because they're giving up a young, 5-tool all star.

[PJ-34]

I am all against it. Rios is too good of a player to let go.

[Westlake]

So many fantastic young pitchers have fizzled out though. Rios is a proven commodity. I would not be happy if a potential trade ended up basically being Rios for Linecum. I think the Blue Jays are in a position where they can demand more because they're giving up a young, 5-tool all star.

Rios: Hes pretty much a .300/.350/.500 hitter with good defense. He's a very good player, and i think we can expect production like that for years to come. But he's not a Miguel Cabrera, or a Vlad, or someone of that caliber. He ranked tied for 44th in the majors in OPS in '07. Lincecum ranked 40th in the majors in ERA, and he is 3 years younger than Rios (which also means hes cost-controlled for longer). He's projected as a top of the line, #1 starter.

Just because someone is a position player doesnt mean he cant fizzle out.. see: Eric Hinske. I mean, sure Lincecum COULD get injured or something, but so could anyone... unless he's shown it in the past, i dont see a reason to be worried about it now.

If some of you havent seen Lincecum, he has a fastball that reaches 100, but usually is at 97-98, and has a very sharp curve. In 2006, he won the award for best amateur player in the country after having a 1.94 ERA and striking out 199 batters in 125 innings.

I can understand wanting to keep Rios, if I were a Jays fan I might have grown an attachment to him, but from an outsider's prospective, I try and make this trade happen if i'm J.P.

[Imgran]

If you could count on replacing his production, then sure you do it, but frankly the Jays have already had to put up with Reed Johnson in a prime power position for far too long -- weakening their outfield offensive production by yet still more could prove debilitating.

There's diminishing returns for everything. Right now when everyone's healthy the rotation is Halladay-Burnett-Marcum-MacGowan with a host of options as 5th starter. I'm not convinced that with 2 high-ceiling youngsters already in the rotation the benefits for Lincecum are that great compared to keeping one of the relatively few offensive threats the Jays had last year in Toronto and producing.

To put that in plane English, the Twins were the second best team in baseball at preventing runs but were mediocre in scoring them. The most efficient way to win more is to pile on more offense, especially if it can be done without sacrificing defense. That means the last thing you want to do, at least from a standpoint of a move that best improves the team, is to start cutting down the offense in the name of improving a pitching and defense unit that's already among the best in the league.

While you can't have too much pitching, barring another injury fest next year we probably have enough to move onto other areas of improving the team like finding a left fielder that can actually, you know, hit.

[Silver Blaze]

No, I wouldn't do that deal. Lincecum has not really proved himself consistently yet.

[aqib]

I don't want to trade Rios becuase I don't think we have anywhere nearly enough offense. I don't want Riccardi making anymore trades, seriously has he come out on top on ANY trade he has made since he has been with the Jays? I haven't seen Lincecum pitch, but I know what Rios can do for us, I know what our starting staff can do, and I don't trust Riccardi to make the call so if he is in favor of it I am against it.

[PJ-34]

I'd have to agree. I hate our offence. Sluggers are not the way to go. That's why I think we need to change our game. No Glaus, and Thomas. Every time I see Glaus he strikes out, it's almost a given. We need alot more speed and defence. Actually our defence is good but no speed. Only Rios and Wells who can steal 15. We need a 40 steal guy, none of this home run or nothing crap offence.

[Imgran]

You wanna form a consistent strategy of how to proceed and then get back to us?

So your opinion is that they need to add more speed. Where?

Do you want to replace Reed Johnson with Scott Podsednik? Make a deal for Chone Figgins? Replace McDonald with an offensively capable shortstop?

[PJ-34]

I'm someone who likes defence more than offence but Johny Mac does need to be better hitting wise. Yes I would like to see Scott here.

[Imgran]

Frankly I think the biggest thing Toronto needs to improve defensively is its ability to prevent the steal rather than to steal more bases themselves. I am very unimpressed by Zaun, particularly his inability to throw out baserunners. He blocks the plate well but letting 85% of baserunners take their base is a bona fide vulnerability.

Anyone know how close Thigpen realistically is? If we've got a couple more years to cover I'd like to hope we can cover them with someone with a better arm than Gregg Zaun.

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

A team will already be frustrating when it's not doing well, and that's true for whether it's a slugging team or otherwise. I can say that I thought the exact same thing last year, that we need more speedy, contact guys instead of the sluggers. The saying 'Speed doesn't slump' comes to mind. However, as much as this is all true, I don't really think that now is the time for the Jays to re-tool. Considering how long JP has spent buliding this team, blowing it up when it's at its make-or-break point wouldn't be the best course of action, IMO.

As much as the slugging style of this team has been bashed by alot of us, we can still be very succesful. It's true that Glaus and Thomas are pretty much hit-or-miss (just like most sluggers), and last season they missed more than they hit. But they really need to be given another shot to get it right. Looking at the lineup, if most of the team has an average year (35/100 for Glaus, 30/95 for Thomas, 30/100 for Wells) then I would have to say that it could be the potent offense we thought we'd have in '07.

All of that being said, if by 2009 this team hasn't produced, it's time to clean house. Rid themselves of JP, Gibby (unfortunately), and especially Paul Godfrey, and let a new guy build a team under a new philosophy.