Which team has the best line-up now?

[Zagi-CRO]

What do you think?
Seems the Tigers are the best.

[DoubleX]

Where's A-Rod on the Yankees lineup? That would seem to make a difference.

EDIT: On paper, I think it's pretty close between the Tigers and Yankees. The Tigers 2008 projected starting lineup had an average 124 OPS+ in 2007 while the Yankes had a 123 average (it's worth mentioning that the Sox are in the 110s depending on how much credit you want to give Ellsbury's 131 OPS+ for just 116 ABs, and the Indians are

[Zagi-CRO]

Where's A-Rod on the Yankees lineup? That would seem to make a difference.

O, yes...mistake.
Admin, please insert A.Rodriguez between Jeter- A.RodriguezAbreu
Betemit is out of lineup.
Yankees Posada-Giambi-Cano-Jeter-A.Rodriguez-Abreu-Cabrera-Matsui-Damon

[TonyStarks]

The Tigers lineup is a Murders Row of sorts....on paper. I'll have a more detailed opinion after I've seen'em in action.

But the Tigers and Yankees have a damn good lineup.

[slugger33]

The Tigers, and it isn't even close.

[DoubleX]

The Tigers, and it isn't even close.

How is it not even close? I think the Tigers on paper do have the best lineup, but I don't think it's that clear cut and there are certainly as many, if not more questions, with the Tigers lineup as there are with just about any other team.

First, a one point OPS+ differential between the Yankees and Tigers based on 2007 performances would seem pretty close to me, and I'd be willing to bet that Ordonez, Polanco, and Renteria won't duplicate their 2007 production which was well above their career norms (though I think all are in line for good years). Then you have to wonder if Sheffield can stay healthy at 39, because he hasn't the past two years. Jacque Jones is not particularly good corner OFer - his OPS+ has been below 100 three of the last four years including just 87 last year. And Ivan Rodriguez has been in steady decline the past three years to the point where he's a below average offensive catcher (just .294 OBP and 85 OPS+ last year).

I will say though that Curtis Granderson is extremely impressive, IMO, and one of the most underrated players in the game. He's just 26, play excellent defense in CF, runs the bases well, and had a 136 OPS+ last year. Everyone has been gushing over Grady Sizemore for the past year or two, but Granderson looks better right now. I think he might very well be the best CFer in the AL right now.

Don't get me wrong, there are probably just as many questions surrounding the Yankees, but I wanted to point out that the Tigers advantages might not be so clear cut and that there are several very legitimate questions with the lineup.

[skyking162]

The Yankees were 80 runs better last season. Replacing Inge with Cabrera is about 60 runs. Jacque Jones might be a slight upgrade over last year's rotation in left field. And Renteria's maybe 10-20 runs better than Sean Casey. For the Yankees, they're pretty much the same, except at first base where they can't be worse offensively. Oh, and Sheffield should play more for the Tigers.

But you can't assume players will repeat their 2007 performances. Who will be better (+) or worse (-) in 2008?

Detroit
Ordonez --
Granderson -
Renteria -
Polanco -

New York
Posada --
Arod -
Jeter +
Abreu +

I see a bunch of Tigers coming off career years, without many expected to improve. The Yankees have ARod and Posada coming off excellent seasons, but also can expect more out of some guys.

I prefer the Yankees' lineup, although there's nothing wrong with Detroit's (well, IRod, but that's a different story). I also think Detroit is a much better fielding team. Both teams have question marks in the rotation, which is what will determine who ends up winning more games.

[slugger33]

The Yankees were 80 runs better last season. Replacing Inge with Cabrera is about 60 runs. Jacque Jones might be a slight upgrade over last year's rotation in left field. And Renteria's maybe 10-20 runs better than Sean Casey. For the Yankees, they're pretty much the same, except at first base where they can't be worse offensively. Oh, and Sheffield should play more for the Tigers.

But you can't assume players will repeat their 2007 performances. Who will be better (+) or worse (-) in 2008?

Detroit
Ordonez --
Granderson -
Renteria -
Polanco -

New York
Posada --
Arod -
Jeter +
Abreu +

I see a bunch of Tigers coming off career years, without many expected to improve. The Yankees have ARod and Posada coming off excellent seasons, but also can expect more out of some guys.

I prefer the Yankees' lineup, although there's nothing wrong with Detroit's (well, IRod, but that's a different story). I also think Detroit is a much better fielding team. Both teams have question marks in the rotation, which is what will determine who ends up winning more games.
So you are saying that Granderson will decline, yet Jeter will get better next season? I don't see it. Sure Granderson won't get 20-20-20-20, but I think he will hit more homers and have more RBI. Also, you really think that Abreu will have a better season? I think his season will be about the same.

[Colorado Express]

Tigers' lineup is big time scary!!! Even more than their lineup is the fact that they have a solid pitching staff from top to bottom (assuming improvement from several of the younger pitchers).

[skyking162]

So you are saying that Granderson will decline, yet Jeter will get better next season? I don't see it. Sure Granderson won't get 20-20-20-20, but I think he will hit more homers and have more RBI. Also, you really think that Abreu will have a better season? I think his season will be about the same.

Actually, you're probably right about Jeter. His 2007 was right at his career level and he'll be 34 next year. I guess I caught up with his 2006 performance.

But Abreu was well below his career levels (.300/.408/.500). I don't expect THAT, but .280/.369/.445 is low.

I really like Granderson and feel he's underappreciated (the dumb 20-20-20-20 thing aside.) He was an offensive force last year, and not enough people realize that. But I don't think we can expect him to get better. 26 SBs with only 1 CS? Yikes. Maybe he shouldn't have been a minus, though. His ability to hit lefties will determine that.

I guess my point is that the Yankees were well ahead of the Tigers last year and the acquisition of one player doesn't all of a sudden launch them ahead. Both lineups are great. And both teams will be great.

[slugger33]

Actually, you're probably right about Jeter. His 2007 was right at his career level and he'll be 34 next year. I guess I caught up with his 2006 performance.

But Abreu was well below his career levels (.300/.408/.500). I don't expect THAT, but .280/.369/.445 is low.

I really like Granderson and feel he's underappreciated (the dumb 20-20-20-20 thing aside.) He was an offensive force last year, and not enough people realize that. But I don't think we can expect him to get better. 26 SBs with only 1 CS? Yikes. Maybe he shouldn't have been a minus, though. His ability to hit lefties will determine that.

I guess my point is that the Yankees were well ahead of the Tigers last year and the acquisition of one player doesn't all of a sudden launch them ahead. Both lineups are great. And both teams will be great.
Should be a great season!

[tigers527]

I guess my point is that the Yankees were well ahead of the Tigers last year and the acquisition of one player doesn't all of a sudden launch them ahead. Both lineups are great. And both teams will be great.

Actually the Tigers offensive acquisitions include Cabrera, Renteria, and Jacques Jones.

Cabrera will be a huge upgrade on the offensive side of the ball. Replacing Inge and his .236 AVG and .321 OBP.

Renteria slots into the Sean Casey position in the line up. Sure, Casey hit .296 and had a .353 OBP but 54 RBI and 40 R. In 40 more ABs Renteria hit .332 AVG and 390 OBP with 57 RBI and 87 R.

Jacques Jones moves out to LF (with Thames in against lefties). This would replace the hydra of Craig Monroe .222 AVG and .264 OBP (795 innings), Marcus Thames .242 AVG and .278 OBP (276 innings), and Timo Perez .389 AVG and .427 OBP (158 innings). Jacques had a .285 AVG and .335 OBP last year. That should be an uppgrade over last years LFers. No offense Timo Perez.

[skyking162]

Yes, I should have mentioned Renteria and Jones, although they're not in the same class as Miggy. Renteria was 15 runs better than Casey offensively last year and Jones was maybe 5 runs better than the Tigers' LF mixers. Renteria was a bit above his head while Jones should improve on his numbers.

[runningshoes]

The Tigers, and it isn't even close.

I'm inclined to say the Tigers as well, but not quite so fervently.

[bluezebra]

What team has announced a lineup? Spring Training is OVER two months away, and the 2008 season is almost FOUR months away.

Bob

[cardsfanatic]

Not too shocking that Detroit leads the pack with all the hype surrounding them lately. A good lineup indeed but I'm going with the proven horses in New York until further notice. I just don't see some of those Detroit sluggers performing at the career year clips they did last year.

[ElHalo]

I'll take a gander at Detroit vs. NY for lineups. I'll give my predictions of where I think guys will go:

C:
Ivan Rodriguez: .275/.300/.400
Jorge Posada: .270/.385/.470

Posada's due for a BIG decline this season; Rodriguez isn't. That doesn't really matter, though, since Posada was the best offensive catcher in baseball last year by a lot, and Rodriguez was pretty far below average. Posada won't come close to matching last year's production, but he'll still be significantly better than IRod, who was never much for drawing walks but appears to have forgotten how to do everything else as well. Big edge to the Yankees here.

1B:
Carlos Guillen: .310/.380/.520
Jason Giambi: .260/.370/.460

Call me crazy, but I see Giambi at least not declining in his walk year, and being able to play 120+ games. I think he wants to get another contract from somebody, and show that he can at least be a somewhat useful player and stay relatively healthy. Guillen should benefit from not having to play SS any more, but you can't expect him to do all that much better. Edge to the Tigers.

2B:
Placido Polanco: .310/.360/.420
Robinson Cano: .330/.380/.530

Polanco's a fine hitter for a 2Bman, but people expecting him to get better at age 32 just aren't thinking clearly. He's going to hit for a good average, but he won't hit .340 again... he'll probably do a little bit better than he did in 2006. Interesting thing about Robinson Cano: For his career, his line pre-All Star Break is .295/.327/.440. Post-All Star Break, that jumps to .334/.366/.540. In 2006, he was one of the best hitters in baseball after the break, going .365/.380/.635; I expected him to have a stellar 2007, but he hit .270 in April and .260 in May to limp out of the gates. Yet again, though, he turned it on late season; his .343/.396/.557 line after the break again put him among the best in the bigs. Having just turned 25, I have a feeling that this is the year he finally transitions his post-Break dominance into a full season of spectacular performance. Edge to the Yankees.

SS:
Edgar Renteria: .290/.350/.410
Derek Jeter: .320/.390/.460

People might think I'm being hard on Edgar, but if anything, I think these numbers are optimistic. They're right on target with his career line, and far better than he did in his last AL stint in 2005. Other than last year and in 2003 with the Cardinals, Edgar has never been an outstanding offensive force, and he's never exactly thrived under pressure -- people remember that he was the last batter in two different World Series, but they tend to forget that he put up OPS+'s of 80 and 88 for the teams that got there. I think he'll be a good hitter, but not a great one, for the Tigers. Jeter's the closest thing you can get to a constant for a 33 year old shortstop. He hasn't shown any signs of slowing down yet... although it's good to keep in mind that he's now at the age his most similar comparable player, Roberto Alomar, was when the wheels fell completely off with no warning whatsoever. Edge to the Yankees.

3B:
Miguel Cabrera: .320/.400/.560
Alex Rodriguez: .310/.410/.610

Cabrera's at an age when players are supposed to be getting better; we've heard that he's working like crazy on his conditioning; and he's one of the most talented hitters in the game. Still, I'm leary of players moving from the NL to the AL, especially ones going to divisions where they'll have to face Sabathia and Carmona and Meche and Liriano and Santana (probably) and Mark Buehrle on a regular basis, and I'm going to stick with his 2007 numbers for now. ARod is due for a power drop, but he's still the best player in the AL. Edge to the Yankees.

LF:
Jacque Jones (are they starting him over Thames?): .280/.330/.400
Johnny Damon: .280/.360/.420

Neither one is anything to speak of, but Jones can expect a slight dip moving from the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, and Damon should have a slightly better total at the end of the year, if he performs closer to his post-break numbers than pre-break numbers. Neither one is really anything to speak of, but Damon will at least draw more walks. Edge to the Yankees.

CF:
Curtis Granderson: .310/.380/.560
Melky Cabrera: .280/.360/.400

Granderson wins this hands down. I think he's a bit overrated (and not as good as Grady Sizemore), but Melky just isn't a starting-level major leaguer. Big edge to the Tigers.

RF:
Magglio Ordonez: .310/.360/.510
Bobby Abreu: .290/.400/.480

Magglio's season was a fluke. Sorry, no getting around it. He's just not that kind of a player, although he's very good. Abreu's on the way down, but his final numbers last year were skewed by his ABYSMAL first half. He hit .305/.390/.528 after the Break, and I think he can approach that this season. EVEN.

DH:

Gary Sheffield: .280/.380/.480
Hideki Matsui: .280/.370/.480

Yeah, I think they'll be a wash next year statistically. Sheffield is just getting to be broken down, though, and his health is a serious concern. I think Matsui can put a full season on the table; I can't say the same of Sheffield. Edge to the Yankees.



So, the Tigers have an edge at 1B and CF, and are basically a wash in RF. The Yanks have an edge everywhere else. I don't see how the Tigers have the better lineup.

One thing to keep in mind: Take a look at the pre-post All Star splits for these Yankee left-handed hitters last year:

Pre-Break:
Johnny Damon: .245/.339/.344
Bobby Abreu: .263/.351/.372
Hideki Matsui: .273/.356/.462
Robinson Cano: .274/.314/.427

Post-Break:
Johnny Damon: .296/.364/.450
Bobby Abreu: .305/.390/.528
Hideki Matsui: .298/.377/.515
Robinson Cano: .343/.396/.557

I think that this is the big reason why the Tigers can't be thought of as having the best lineup. Take a look at how wide these splits are; there's just NO WAY that every Yankees' lefty could once again put up OPS's 100-300 points below their expected average in the first half.

Overall, I see the Yankees having the better lineup, and I don't think that there's any really great argument otherwise.

[J W]

To me, resigning Rodriguez and Posada has the Yankees currently with the best lineup -- barely -- over the Tigers. The Tigers lineup, however has more potential than the Yankees lineup, and the Yankees are a bit more inclined to injury from what I see.

That said, watch it be neither team by October.

[philkid3]

The Tigers, and it isn't even close.

I can see an argument for the Tigers, but it's pretty wrong to say it's not even close.

That english D in your avatar isn't the source of the statement, is it?

[slugger33]

I can see an argument for the Tigers, but it's pretty wrong to say it's not even close.

That english D in your avatar isn't the source of the statement, is it?
Yes....maybe I'm just too over- confident in the Tigers...

[tigers527]

So, the Tigers have an edge at 1B and CF, and are basically a wash in RF. The Yanks have an edge everywhere else. I don't see how the Tigers have the better lineup.

Overall, I see the Yankees having the better lineup, and I don't think that there's any really great argument otherwise.

Ummmm...ok...If that's how you feel, how about putting some action where your mouth is?

I will take the over of 3 Tiger starters having better years then their Yankee counterparts at the plate. 3 would be a push, but hey I am taking a whole extra guy over what you said.

Since I am rather confident, you can pick which ever number you want to use to track offense. But you must use the same number for all nine players. If you want to say OPS or BA or RBI, etc go for it....it's the same number across the board of players.

Since I am not sure what to wadger...you can pick that too.

[ElHalo]

Ummmm...ok...If that's how you feel, how about putting some action where your mouth is?

Or instead of just throwing down, do have some kind of argument to make? I can see taking somebody over Johnny Damon, or Sheffield over Matsui, but I don't think it'll happen. Do you honestly want to make an argument for, say, Polanco over Cano?

[tigers527]

Or instead of just throwing down, do have some kind of argument to make? I can see taking somebody over Johnny Damon, or Sheffield over Matsui, but I don't think it'll happen. Do you honestly want to make an argument for, say, Polanco over Cano?

"Throwing down"? Huh? I was just suggesting that I would take the over 3. When I said "action" I was refering to betting. I think at least 3 Tigers will have a better offensive year then their Yankee counterparts. We could bet something dorky like control of the others avatar for one month after the 2008 season?

As to Polanco over Cano...it depends on what measurable you want to use. I can say pretty confidently that Polanco will have a higher BA in 2008. He batted 35 points higher last year. He will also probably score more runs in 2008. He will bat better with RISP (74 points better last year). He will bat better after an 0-2 count (.402 to .191 last year). Heck, even Polancos OPS was 5 points higher last year.

I can see where you might say Polanco could be better next year. Probably not the RBI or HR of Cano. But Polanco has the BA, OBP, and Runs.

I did the same position by position break down on the Miguel Cabrera v A-Rod thread. I got 4 to 4 with a 3rd basemen push.

And if you think the A-Rod v Miguel push is a little homerish on my part. I can say the same thing about the push you gave to Abreu v Magglio.

[cardsfanatic]

I did the same position by position break down on the Miguel Cabrera v A-Rod thread. I got 4 to 4 with a 3rd basemen push.


Uh, Miggy is a great player. No doubt. But A-Rod was far better last year... and remember, Miggy played in the "pathetic" NL that just needs to be disbanded. :)

Just a look at the stats (that I care about -- no RBI, BA etc... they're accounted for here, just not those simplistic stats) it's not even close between A-Rod and Miggy.

A-Rod: 13.7 WARP3, 1.067 OPS, .339 EqA, 96.6 VOPR (best in the MLB by nearly 10 points)
Miggy: 11.2 WARP3, .966 OPS, .319 Eq!, 71.4 VORP (good for 10th in MLB)

That's no push, sir.

[tigers527]

Just a look at the stats (that I care about -- no RBI, BA etc... they're accounted for here, just not those simplistic stats) it's not even close between A-Rod and Miggy.

A-Rod: 13.7 WARP3, 1.067 OPS, .339 EqA, 96.6 VOPR (best in the MLB by nearly 10 points)
Miggy: 11.2 WARP3, .966 OPS, .319 Eq!, 71.4 VORP (good for 10th in MLB)

That's no push, sir.
First, I was pointing out that being a push in comparison of the Yankee fan who called Abreu and Ordonez a push.

Second it is not impossible to think these things might happen in 2008. Miguel might, just might see a few more pitches with some combination of Ordonez, Guillen or Sheffield on deck. No offense to Uggla (I swear I had the Star Wars figure when I was a kid) or Henly Ramirez. Also Miguel might have a few more ABs with his team in the lead...making pitchers have to throw to him even more so?

There is also the thought that A-Rod just might take a little step back this season? If A-Rod posts his 2007 numbers in 2008 this conversation is moot. Personally, I don't think A-Rod will have a repeat season though.

[bluezebra]

Ummmm...ok...If that's how you feel, how about putting some action where your mouth is?

I will take the over of 3 Tiger starters having better years then their Yankee counterparts at the plate. 3 would be a push, but hey I am taking a whole extra guy over what you said.

Since I am rather confident, you can pick which ever number you want to use to track offense. But you must use the same number for all nine players. If you want to say OPS or BA or RBI, etc go for it....it's the same number across the board of players.

Since I am not sure what to wadger...you can pick that too.

What's a "wadger"? Is it related to a "badger"?

Bob

[Doctor Zizmor]

Its defi nitley between the tigers and yankees

Damon < Granderson
Jeter > Polonco
Abreu < Ordonez
The Rod > Cabrera
Matsui = Sheffield
Posada > Pudge
Cano > Renteria(based on edgars past AL performace)
Giambi = Guillen
Melky = Jacue Jones

[Rapmaster]

One of Detroit's biggest offseason concerns was acquiring a legitimate left-handed threat. I don't think Jacque Jones was what they were looking for and I don't think their lineup will match up against hte Yankees'.

[NightHawks2007]

Detroit and New York are the clear front runners. Although I voted for the Tigers , I'm somewhat surprised nobody has mentioned Boston in any of this. The only real hole in the lineup right now is the in consistent Julio Lugo. Manny may be old and Varitek may be only average offensively as far as catchers go, but they still put up some numbers last year. Assuming everyone stays healthy in 2008 they might have the #2 or #3 offense in the league.

That said, the Tigers will be better in certain areas. They will probably hit more doubles due to the fact that nobody on their team is looking to have a power filled season and their ballpark is built for hitting doubles. The Yankees will hit more home runs if for anything just A-Rod. Without any statistical basis for my reasons, heres the way I see it.

Posada over Rodriguez
Guillen over Giambi
Polanco over Cano
Jeter over Renteria
A-Rod over Cabrera
Matsui over Jones
Granderson over Damon
Ordonez over Abreu

Thats 5-4 in favor of the Tigers.

[Doctor Zizmor]

Right now Id give the yankees a slight edge...but if the yankees front office listens to all the emails Ive been sending them since October...then the yankees will have the best line up by a landslide

Damon
Jeter
Bonds
The Rod
Abreu
Posada
Cano
Melky
Duncan

[holyroman]

I'm partial to the potential for the new Astros lineup in the NL

Michael Bourn
Kaz Matsui
Miguel Tejada
Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Hunter Pence
Ty Wigginton
JR Towles
Pitcher

[skyking162]

Here's a look at the 2008 lineups for NY, Detroit, and Boston, using projections from the Bill James Handbook.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=317733

Summary:

Yankees
.25 runs per game difference
Red Sox
.15 runs per game difference
Tigers

The Astros wouldn't even be close.

[Charger567]

I say the Tigers by more than a 5-4 edge. This is a bad way to measure offensive production, but I will just give my view on it.

Rodriguez < Posada
Guillen > Giambi
Polanco > Cano
Renteria = Jeter (Offensively)
Cabrera < A-Rod
Jones > Matsui
Granderson > Damon
Ordonez > Abreu

The Tigers are 5-2-1 in my view.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Ask me again in March...

[skyking162]

This is crude and ignores defense, which is in Detroit's favor.

Rodriguez << Posada
Guillen = Giambi (Guillen gets >> over anybody like Andy Phillips)
Polanco < Cano
Renteria < Jeter
Cabrera < A-Rod
Jones < Damon
Granderson >> Melky
Ordonez >> Abreu
Sheffield > Matsui

Detroit: 5
New York: 6

[ChrisLDuncan]

I say the Tigers by more than a 5-4 edge. This is a bad way to measure offensive production, but I will just give my view on it.

Rodriguez < Posada
Guillen > Giambi
Polanco > Cano
Renteria = Jeter (Offensively)
Cabrera < A-Rod
Jones > Matsui
Granderson > Damon
Ordonez > Abreu

The Tigers are 5-2-1 in my view.

Jacque Jones better than Matsui? You do realize that Hideki Matsui's career AVERAGE OPS+ os better than Jones' average right? As to Jeter and Renteria you do realize that Jeter had a crappy knee last season, and Renteria in the AL has been awful, not to mention that his .267 EqA compared to Jeter's .285. Polanco and Cano, I'll take the 25 year old second basemen over a 32 year old one. Mags is getting a bit overrated he had a BABIP of .385 last season which is a total fluke and his numbers will go back down to his career rates, whereas Abreu had an awful first half (he showed up completely out of shape to training camp) and his second half was more inline with his career norms. Not to mention that Abreu as the higher career OBP and OPS+. Giambi and Guillen, if Giambi's healthy I'll take Giambino , otherwise Guillen. I think he's the wild card here. Also the Yanks need to bick up the Barry.

[holyroman]

Here's a look at the 2008 lineups for NY, Detroit, and Boston, using projections from the Bill James Handbook.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=317733

Summary:

Yankees
.25 runs per game difference
Red Sox
.15 runs per game difference
Tigers

The Astros wouldn't even be close.

A big reason being because they play in the NL without a DH, so don't kid yourself either.

[skyking162]

A big reason being because they play in the NL without a DH, so don't kid yourself either.

That's an excellent point. The Yankees, Tigers, and Red Sox have excellent DHs, although the position in general is much worse than you'd think.

Last year the Astros scored 4.45 runs per game against an NL average of 4.7. 2008 shows these changes:

1. Tejada for 1/2 year Everett (evidently)
2. Bourn for 1/2 year Luke Scott, 1/2 year Lane, etc
3. Wigginton for Loretta
4. Matsui for Biggio

Going with 2007 numbers...

1. 35 run gain
2. 0? gain (Scott/Lane were at 20 runs in '07, I don't know enough about Bourn, but if he's league average, the difference is nothing.)
3. 10 run gain (Wiggy's being overrated, too)
4. 15 run gain (Matsui's not that good, but Biggio was attrocious)

That's somewhere around a 60 run gain, or about .3 runs per game, putting Houston barely above league-average offensively. Of course, Ausmus may get the boot and Berkman could have two second halves.

One thing to remember about the lineup, too, is that Berkman's the only guy with a really good OBP. Without a lot of runners on base, these "RBI men" won't have a lot of runners to drive in. And with a lot of outs being made, innings will get cut shorter than with really good offenses, bringing each player to the plate fewer times over the course of a season.

[plask_stirlac]

The Giants!

[Zagi-CRO]

I'm partial to the potential for the new Astros lineup in the NL

Michael Bourn
Kaz Matsui
Miguel Tejada
Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Hunter Pence
Ty Wigginton
JR Towles
Pitcher

:thumbsup:
Good!

[hellborn]

Detroit and New York are the clear front runners. Although I voted for the Tigers , I'm somewhat surprised nobody has mentioned Boston in any of this. The only real hole in the lineup right now is the in consistent Julio Lugo. Manny may be old and Varitek may be only average offensively as far as catchers go, but they still put up some numbers last year. Assuming everyone stays healthy in 2008 they might have the #2 or #3 offense in the league.

...

I think the Bosox will have a good offense, but they probably haven't been mentioned because they have more holes and X factors than Detroit and NY. Drew's power evaporated last year...I think that he'll pick it up, but maybe that shoulder is a permanent issue. I expect Lowell to slide back somewhat, and I hope that Manny just had an off year instead of showing us that he's getting old. Ellsbury is a real X factor...he looked fine in his cup of coffee, but what is he going to do in a full season? He clearly won't have much power unless he totally reworks his swing, but he'll be great if he can get on base at a good clip and be a force on the bases. Before you count on him 100%, though, take a look at a Bosock named Phil Plantier from the '90s. Tek will probably sink a little more, but he's a far better hitter than IRod, who is kind of a joke now. Pedroia probably has the most upside potential amongst the regulars for last season, Ortiz will probably be awesome as usual, Youk is probably near his peak and will be about the same.
Now, if we want to talk about pitching...heh heh heh!
(Assuming Santana doesn't go to Detroit or the NYYs!!!)

[holyroman]

That's an excellent point. The Yankees, Tigers, and Red Sox have excellent DHs, although the position in general is much worse than you'd think.

Last year the Astros scored 4.45 runs per game against an NL average of 4.7. 2008 shows these changes:

1. Tejada for 1/2 year Everett (evidently)
2. Bourn for 1/2 year Luke Scott, 1/2 year Lane, etc
3. Wigginton for Loretta
4. Matsui for Biggio

Going with 2007 numbers...

1. 35 run gain
2. 0? gain (Scott/Lane were at 20 runs in '07, I don't know enough about Bourn, but if he's league average, the difference is nothing.)
3. 10 run gain (Wiggy's being overrated, too)
4. 15 run gain (Matsui's not that good, but Biggio was attrocious)

That's somewhere around a 60 run gain, or about .3 runs per game, putting Houston barely above league-average offensively. Of course, Ausmus may get the boot and Berkman could have two second halves.

One thing to remember about the lineup, too, is that Berkman's the only guy with a really good OBP. Without a lot of runners on base, these "RBI men" won't have a lot of runners to drive in. And with a lot of outs being made, innings will get cut shorter than with really good offenses, bringing each player to the plate fewer times over the course of a season.

Good reply, FYI though Ausmus has been signed this year to be the backup to give catcher JR Towles a chance, has to be an improvement over Ausmus.
I am speaking of course about potential for this lineup. Of course the whole thing is speculative, hoping that the guys at the top of the lineup can get on base at a better clip then they have or better than their predecessors did, Which should not be hard to do. Also consider that Tejada's numbers where down last year and he missed 30 games. Presuming the change of scenery he has been wanting for 2 years brings his excitement for the game back up going to a team in a division they can win.
FYI I posted the lineup as it was prematurely announced at the Tejada press conference. I would arrange it differently