A-Rod or Miguel Cabrera?

[tigers527]

Assuming that the paper work and physicals go through. Inserting a masher like Cabrera into an already potent Tiger line up.

Which AL 3B man is going to have the better offensive season?

[ShortStop]

Not even close. A-Rod will be much better that that pastrami looking third baseman.

[tigers527]

ikd...maybe my vote is mostly on homerism. Still, .320, 34, and 119 are pretty good numbers for the talent deprived Florida Mudhens.

Is it too much to project those numbers to be something along the lines of .315-.325 AVG, 23-33 HR, 135-145 RBI on the talent drenched Tigers? And if those numbers are accurate would that be that far off of what A-Rod will do? Ok maybe A-Rod will hit about 10-20 more HR...still I think it will be pretty close.

[ShortStop]

How is hitting 10-20 HR more even close mate? :D

[tigers527]

How is hitting 10-20 HR more even close mate? :D

Do the HR totals mean much if Cabrera's BA is higher and the RBI are a push? I guess if you're a chick and dig the long ball?

[rockin500]

Do the HR totals mean much if Cabrera's BA is higher and the RBI are a push? I guess if you're a chick and dig the long ball?
last year their batting averages were a push for the most part. a rod was higher in both slugging and on base. so its not just the long ball.

[dl4060]

Do the HR totals mean much if Cabrera's BA is higher and the RBI are a push? I guess if you're a chick and dig the long ball?


RBI do not mean much. If Cabrara's BA is higher, that is important. If Cabrera has a better OPS, than that means something, but I doubt he will. I haven't looked at RBI in years. Cabrera will probably drive in more runs than Bonds usually did between 01 and 04, which won't mean his season is anywhere near what Barry did.

[tigers527]

last year their batting averages were a push for the most part. a rod was higher in both slugging and on base. so its not just the long ball.

Well, time will ultimately tell this tale. I think it is not a stretch to assume that Cabrera will see a few more pitches this year, then he did last year. If that is so, I think the 2 of them will be pretty close offensively. Assuming good health of course.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

last year their batting averages were a push for the most part. a rod was higher in both slugging and on base. so its not just the long ball.

And A-Rod plays in the tougher league so a LQ adjustment increases the gap as well.

[tigers527]

And A-Rod plays in the tougher league so a LQ adjustment increases the gap as well.

And that league got tougher still...cause now Miguel Cabrera is in it. :D :gt

[ShortStop]

Last time i checked the league was tough on hitters because of the pitching quality there is there. Cabrera doesn't make the league tougher. ;)
Great point by Honus, Cabrera might not only come second to A-rod offensively but he might tail a lot more AL third basemen.

[digglahhh]

Last time i checked the league was tough on hitters because of the pitching quality there is there. Cabrera doesn't make the league tougher. ;)
Great point by Honus, Cabrera might not only come second to A-rod offensively but he might tail a lot more AL third basemen.

Yeah...

Chipper Jones, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Garret Atkins, Ryan Braun(when healthy) Scott Rolen, meet... the immortal Nick Punto.

[DoubleX]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cabrera has the better season. There really isn't that much of a difference between them offensively. Rodriguez has a 147 career OPS+ while Cabrera has a 143 career OPS+ and his best years should be ahead of him. The fact that Cabrera will be surrounded by an excellent lineup should only help him.

That being said, Rodriguez will likely still be the more complete player. He's better defensively and is an excellent baserunner.

[tigers527]

It should be considered that A-Rod is probably playing next season in the last place he wanted/expected to play. Also, the numbers he had last season where in part based on his desire to opt out of NY and have the best chance of increasing his value elsewhere?

But hey I am neither Dr Phil or a sports psychologist. So my read might be wrong?

[ElHalo]

Cabrera's a fantastic offensive player, but (sorry Tigers' fans) he won't put up the offensive numbers ARod is likely to because the Tigers' lineup isn't as strong.

If I had to put money down, I'd say that, in the Tigers' lineup, Polanco, Sheffield, Ordonez, and Renteria are likely to have downturns, with a SIGNFICANT downturn for Ordonez. I can see Jacque Jones and possibly IRod doing better than last year, but not worlds better.

For the Yankees, you have to remember, every single one of their left handed batters had an unutterly terrible beginning to the year last year (when the Yanks fell ten games below .500). Of those guys, Matsui's probably the only one who won't see a significant bump in their productivity (Abreu, in a walk year, is likely to pull off an outstanding season; Damon should be more productive if he's healthy and not playing LF; and Cano can, if he can put together one full season like the two second halves he's had the last two seasons, can arguably be one of the best hitters in the game). The only guys likely to see significant dropoffs are Posada (in for a HUGE slide) and ARod himself.

If I had to guess, I'd go with these numbers for the Yankees next year (preface by saying that there's always some miracle that Jason Giambi will actually try to play baseball in his walk year):

LF: Damon, .280/.370/.390
SS: Jeter, .320/.390/.450
RF: Abreu, .290/.410/.450
3B: Rodriguez, .300/.400/.600
DH: Matsui, .280/.370/.480
C: Posada, .270/.380/.480
2B: Cano, .330/.370/.510
1B: Giambi, .260/.390/.460
CF: Cabrera, .290/.360/.380

I don't think that any of those numbers are unreasonable (Giambi's overly optimisitic, but I see him going for a contract). Yes, I think that Cano can be one of the best pure hitters in the league (except with no walks) if he can just be consistent. I don't see the Tigers putting up numbers like that.

[Colorado Express]

Cabrera is GREAT, but A-Rod is GREATER!!!

[DoubleX]

It should be considered that A-Rod is probably playing next season in the last place he wanted/expected to play. Also, the numbers he had last season where in part based on his desire to opt out of NY and have the best chance of increasing his value elsewhere?

But hey I am neither Dr Phil or a sports psychologist. So my read might be wrong?

I don't agree with that. I think New York is where A-Rod wanted to be. People will say that he and Boras surmised the market and realized that the Yankees were the only option, but I don't buy that at all. Reports of A-Rod coming back to the Yankees came out just one day into free agency and he apparently approached the team days earlier. Boras may have had an idea of what the market would be like, but there was essentially no time for Boras to explore and manipulate the market as only he uniquely can. If Torii Hunter can get 18 mil per, I don't think it's far-fetched at all to believe that eventually Boras could have persuaded some team to give A-Rod close to 30 per, he justed needed the time to work his magic. For further example, look at Barry Zito last year - no one thought he would get the contract he ending up getting, then poof, 6 weeks into free agency, Boras got the job done. If A-Rod truly wanted out of the Yankees, he probably would have stayed in the market longer instead of circumventing his agent and unilaterally contacting the Yankees about returning prior to the beginning of the free agent market. A-Rod is a very self-conscious person, and I believe he recognized that opting out as he did was a mistake, and realizes that his legacy is best if he stays with the Yankees (particularly if they win a championship) rather than being remembered like a hired mercenary for his career (which he might be remembered as anyway).

As for his numbers last season, there might have been something to the opting out, and thus rising up in a contract year, it seems to happen frequently to players. Nevertheless, he did seem much more comfortable last year and looked like he actually enjoyed playing. Most telling, IMO, was that he seemed to really embrace his teammates, particularly some of the youngsters whom he took under his wing (notably Cabrera and Cano who began to work out with A-Rod everyday). Along these lines, it was telling IMO that during the clubhouse celebration after the team clinched a playoff spot, A-Rod was right in the middle of the festivities and joy in the room, whereas a certain Captain SS was nowhere to be found until about 30-45 minutes later. If anything, I got the sense last year that A-Rod actually has been developing a better repoire with his teammates and that it's Jeter who seems more aloof.

Anyway, not sure how this is at all relevant to the conversation of who will be better next year. Like I said earlier, I think it's certainly possible that Cabrera could outdo Rodriguez offensively. If I had to pick one offensively, I'd pick A-Rod, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Cabrera is better next year - it's been close already and that's with Cabrera playing in much weaker lineups than he'll be in next year. That being said, I think A-Rod will still be the overall better/more valuable player because of his superior defense and baserunning (A-Rod is a terrific baserunner - quick and aggressive but smart, and that might the one part of his game that really goes unnoticed/undervalued).

[tigers527]

LF: Damon, .280/.370/.390
SS: Jeter, .320/.390/.450
RF: Abreu, .290/.410/.450
3B: Rodriguez, .300/.400/.600
DH: Matsui, .280/.370/.480
C: Posada, .270/.380/.480
2B: Cano, .330/.370/.510
1B: Giambi, .260/.390/.460
CF: Cabrera, .290/.360/.380

I won't break down all the numbers, but I will suggest that every Yankee starter except Damon and Cabrera (760 and 740 respectively) will not have an 840 or higher OPS, as your numbers up there claim.

verses
LF Damon v Jones/Thames edge Yankees
SS Jeter v Renteria edge Yankees
RF Abrue v Ordonez edge Tigers
3B Rodriguez v Cabrera push (just for the threads sake of argument)
DH Matsui v Sheffield edge Yankees
C Posada v Rodriguez edge Yankees
2B Cano v Polanco edge Tigers
1B Giambi v Guillen edge Tigers
CF Cabrera v Granderson edge Tigers

Seems 4 to 4 to me....and although there might be some arguments. There are also some I could see going the other way.

[Zagi-CRO]

LF Damon v Jones/Thames edge Yankees 2.8- 2.5
SS Jeter v Renteria edge Yankees 3.2 - 3.0
RF Abreu v Ordonez edge Tigers 3.6 - 4.6
3B Rodriguez v Cabrera edge Yankees 5.3 - 4.1
DH Matsui v Sheffield edge Yankees 3.7 - 3.3
C Posada v Rodriguez edge Yankees 3.6 - 2.6
2B Cano v Polanco edge Yankees 3.5 - 3.2
1B Giambi v Guillen edge Tigers 2.0 - 3.6
CF Cabrera v Granderson edge Tigers 2.7 - 3.5

Total Yankees 30.4 vs. Tigers 30.4 !!

[Mattingly]

Assuming that the paper work and physicals go through. Inserting a masher like Cabrera into an already potent Tiger line up.

Which AL 3B man is going to have the better offensive season?
Which stats do you consider to be more favorable to? Someone could even argue that Magglio Ordonez' stats were about as good as Alex Rodriguez' in 2007, but it all depends upon what's more important to you.

As an example:

If one has a higher BA by 30 points, but the other hits 20 more jacks, one has a higher SLG while the other has a higher OBP + RBI, who's had the better year?

[Mattingly]

LF Damon v Jones/Thames edge Yankees 2.8- 2.5
SS Jeter v Renteria edge Yankees 3.2 - 3.0
RF Abreu v Ordonez edge Tigers 3.6 - 4.6
3B Rodriguez v Cabrera edge Yankees 5.3 - 4.1
DH Matsui v Sheffield edge Yankees 3.7 - 3.3
C Posada v Rodriguez edge Yankees 3.6 - 2.6
2B Cano v Polanco edge Yankees 3.5 - 3.2
1B Giambi v Guillen edge Tigers 2.0 - 3.6
CF Cabrera v Granderson edge Tigers 2.7 - 3.5

Total Yankees 30.4 vs. Tigers 30.4 !!
Where do these numbers come from? How were they calculated?

[Mattingly]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cabrera has the better season. There really isn't that much of a difference between them offensively. Rodriguez has a 147 career OPS+ while Cabrera has a 143 career OPS+ and his best years should be ahead of him. The fact that Cabrera will be surrounded by an excellent lineup should only help him.

That being said, Rodriguez will likely still be the more complete player. He's better defensively and is an excellent baserunner.
There's also the "pitching intangibles" that if someone decides not to pitch to either of them and it becomes contagious, then we'll have a gaudy OBP, but fewer ABs. Either could hit tons of doubles but about 150 less ABs, making the stats seem even more in their favor.

[Zagi-CRO]

Where do these numbers come from? How were they calculated?

I was looking for offensive players stats /RBI,HR,R,AVG) and made simple math like this evaluating each of players in 2007.

MVP=(2*RBI+3*HR+R+AVG*700)/Av(G50)
----------------------------------------------
MVP - classify players into 5 classes /from worst 1 to best 5, like classes in Europe or E to A/
Av(G50)- an average number of total games based on first 50 players
Av(G50)=157.76 games


For ex. the BEST 5 AL MVP stars:


Stars AVG HR RBI R
1.Alex Rodriguez 5.30 0.314 54 156 143
2.Magglio Ordonez 4.65 0.363 28 139 117
3.David Ortiz 4.36 0.332 35 117 116
4.Carlos Pena 4.29 0.282 46 121 99
5.Vladimir Guerrero 4.10 0.324 27 125 89


A-Rod is obviously an outstanding MVP player with 5.30 stars /something like general with 5 stars!!/
Or A-Rod has A+ class.
/it's my opinion, of course/
I have been calculated players value or 'stars' for entire MLB /for all players/ for 2007.

[Zagi-CRO]

The best NL MVP players:


Stars AVG HR RBI R
1.Matt Holliday 4.66 0.340 36 135 119
2.Princ Fielder 4.43 0.288 50 119 109
3.Ryan Howard 4.40 0.268 47 136 94
4.Migu Cabrera 4.15 0.320 34 119 91
5.David Wright 4.09 0.325 30 107 113


Ordonez and Holliday have a very similar numbers 4.65 vs. 4.66 /edge 0.01 for Holliday!/

Carlos Lee and Chipper Jones also have more then 4 stars and Pujols has 3.99!!

[slugger33]

A-Rod and Cabrera will be 1 and 2 in MVP voting.

[tigers527]

Which stats do you consider to be more favorable to? Someone could even argue that Magglio Ordonez' stats were about as good as Alex Rodriguez' in 2007, but it all depends upon what's more important to you.

As an example:

If one has a higher BA by 30 points, but the other hits 20 more jacks, one has a higher SLG while the other has a higher OBP + RBI, who's had the better year?

Myself...I am an old school guy that prefers BA, RBI, and HR in that order. BA and RBI are real close though IMO.

However, the poll can be interpered anyway you want.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

This comparison is a lot closer than some of you think. I will give you that, unlike Cabrera, A-Rod has value on the field and on the bases, but he's not that much better at the plate. I think A-Rod is overrated offensively...yes, you read correctly. He was the best player in baseball last year, but he still wasn't as good as his salary or his hype would suggest. In 2007, A-Rod wasn't as good as Pujols was in 2003 or 2006 and he wasn't even in the same league as Bonds 2001-2004. Heck, I don't even think he was as good as Giambi 2000-2001. And that was the best season A-Rod has ever had. Next year I think he'll be good for 40+ HR, 120 RBI and an average around .300, but I wouldn't expect him to duplicate 2007 (look at what he did in 2004 and 2006). I think we've seen the best we'll see of him. Cabrera, on the other hand, is probably still getting better. He's only 24! Plus he'll see more pitches to hit now that he's with the Tigers. I could see him putting up numbers like Manny Ramirez did in his prime. I'd call it a toss-up as to who will have a better 2008 season, but if I were building a team, I'd take Cabrera because of his youth.

[rockin500]

This comparison is a lot closer than some of you think. I will give you that, unlike Cabrera, A-Rod has value on the field and on the bases, but he's not that much better at the plate. I think A-Rod is overrated offensively...yes, you read correctly. He was the best player in baseball last year, but he still wasn't as good as his salary or his hype would suggest. In 2007, A-Rod wasn't as good as Pujols was in 2003 or 2006 and he wasn't even in the same league as Bonds 2001-2004. Heck, I don't even think he was as good as Giambi 2000-2001. And that was the best season A-Rod has ever had. Next year I think he'll be good for 40+ HR, 120 RBI and an average around .300, but I wouldn't expect him to duplicate 2007 (look at what he did in 2004 and 2006). I think we've seen the best we'll see of him. Cabrera, on the other hand, is probably still getting better. He's only 24! Plus he'll see more pitches to hit now that he's with the Tigers. I could see him putting up numbers like Manny Ramirez did in his prime. I'd call it a toss-up as to who will have a better 2008 season, but if I were building a team, I'd take Cabrera because of his youth.
hey, i think its relatively close. Still, cabrera is a lot closer to having to change positions than Arod is. Cabrera is a biiiiiiig boy. and even if he loses a significant amount of weight this offseason, i just cant see him keeping it off. partly due to his frame. he'll always be one of those guys who carries weight.

Arod has never shown any sign of being a slouch when it comes to fitness like cabrera has. Arod still has several more really good years left and obviously so does cabrera, but will cabrera be at first or DH relatively soon?

BTW, you compare Arod's 2007 to Giambi who was VERY juiced those years and Bonds who put up the best peak ever (some would say very suspiciously). not exactly the best of arguments there.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

hey, i think its relatively close. Still, cabrera is a lot closer to having to change positions than Arod is. Cabrera is a biiiiiiig boy. and even if he loses a significant amount of weight this offseason, i just cant see him keeping it off. partly due to his frame. he'll always be one of those guys who carries weight.

Arod has never shown any sign of being a slouch when it comes to fitness like cabrera has. Arod still has several more really good years left and obviously so does cabrera, but will cabrera be at first or DH relatively soon?

BTW, you compare Arod's 2007 to Giambi who was VERY juiced those years and Bonds who put up the best peak ever (some would say very suspiciously). not exactly the best of arguments there.

I agree with you that Cabrera probably won't be playing third base for too much longer. His weight hasn't seemed to affect his hitting though.

As for the comparisons I made, I was comparing A-Rod's performance last year to some of the best performances over the last few years. He is considered the best player in baseball right now, so it made sense to me to compare him to some other guys who have been talked about as being the best player in baseball recently...and I think those three compare favorably to him. As you pointed out, Giambi was taking PEDs. So was Bonds, but Bonds is straight-up better than A-Rod, PEDs or not.

[rockin500]

So was Bonds, but Bonds is straight-up better than A-Rod, PEDs or not.

I'll agree with you there. I rate Arod highly on offense, partly due to his position. if he had stayed at shortstop and his offense was what it was, it'd be beyond awesome.

Im not one who thinks he will be the best offensive player ever. there are some who do, but thats just ludicrous talk. he would have been the best shortstop ever IMO, but i think thats pretty much done, and he will have to settle for 2nd best shortstop.

[NightHawks2007]

Both are great offensive players. A-Rod, however, is not only better than Cabrera, but he plays in a better hitters park. Comerica Park in Detroit is a pasture, Yankee Stadium has great home run porches. Give me two equal hitters, put one in Comerica half the year, the other in Yankee Stadium, the Yankee hits better every time.

[tigers527]

Both are great offensive players. A-Rod, however, is not only better than Cabrera, but he plays in a better hitters park. Comerica Park in Detroit is a pasture, Yankee Stadium has great home run porches. Give me two equal hitters, put one in Comerica half the year, the other in Yankee Stadium, the Yankee hits better every time.

True, if the only stat you wanna look at regarding "hitting" is home runs.

[DoubleX]

Both are great offensive players. A-Rod, however, is not only better than Cabrera, but he plays in a better hitters park. Comerica Park in Detroit is a pasture, Yankee Stadium has great home run porches. Give me two equal hitters, put one in Comerica half the year, the other in Yankee Stadium, the Yankee hits better every time.

Actually, Comerica Park has had slightly more favorable park factors for hitters the last three years than Yankee Stadium. I was actually surprised by this even though Yankee Stadium has a reputation as more of a pitcher's park in its own right; but as tigers527 said, a smaller park is only really an advantage for homeruns, the bigger park can be better for racking up hits and extra base hits in general because the OFers have to cover more ground and there is more room to dunk balls in. For example, Yankee Stadium does have a very friendly RF porch, but if you're not hitting it out in RF, it's probably going to be caught because the OFer just doesn't have to cover much ground.

Also, Yankee Stadium is no piece of cake for a RH power hitter (though the gap in right-center, because of its size, is a good place for lining balls for extra base hits).

[cardsfanatic]

ikd...maybe my vote is mostly on homerism. Still, .320, 34, and 119 are pretty good numbers for the talent deprived Florida Mudhens.

Is it too much to project those numbers to be something along the lines of .315-.325 AVG, 23-33 HR, 135-145 RBI on the talent drenched Tigers? And if those numbers are accurate would that be that far off of what A-Rod will do? Ok maybe A-Rod will hit about 10-20 more HR...still I think it will be pretty close.

First, 10-20 HR is a _lot_. Secondly, you just sat there and admitted that RBI are mostly influenced by the team you're on and the situations you're provided and yet you're going to tout them as some kind of huge personal accomplishment for Miggy because his _team_ is better?

[tigers527]

First, 10-20 HR is a _lot_. Secondly, you just sat there and admitted that RBI are mostly influenced by the team you're on and the situations you're provided and yet you're going to tout them as some kind of huge personal accomplishment for Miggy because his _team_ is better?

But Miguels team was not better. The Marlins are not better then the Yankees, well the exception being October 2003. And while RBI might be kinda a "situational" stat. IMO RBI are a more important offensive number then HR. Example, which player is better Player A .300BA, 25 HR and 145 RBI or Player B .300 BA, 38 HR and 132 RBI?

[AstrosFan]

Well, keeping all the other stats equal, they'll have the same OBP, but the second guy is producing 39 more total bases in the same amount of at bats, so I'd take the .300/38/132 guy. No contest.

[Mattingly]

Myself...I am an old school guy that prefers BA, RBI, and HR in that order. BA and RBI are real close though IMO.

However, the poll can be interpered anyway you want.
In that case, what were your top 5 offensive position players for 2007 based upon those stats? I'm basing it not upon who who had the highest BA vs highest RBI, etc, but who had a great combo of all those stats?

No "Ichiro Suzuki" or "Jose Reyes" types of players, just sluggers like these two, your own Maggs Ordonez, Pujols, etc.

[tigers527]

In that case, what were your top 5 offensive position players for 2007 based upon those stats? I'm basing it not upon who who had the highest BA vs highest RBI, etc, but who had a great combo of all those stats?

No "Ichiro Suzuki" or "Jose Reyes" types of players, just sluggers like these two, your own Maggs Ordonez, Pujols, etc.
I am sorry Mattingly...I only get trapped in the minutia of the Tigers numbers. As for the entire league, I would not wanna make myself look goofy by even trying to guess the top five offenders in MLB last year.

The 2 numbers IMO that are not looked at often but do show offensive consistancy are AB/R and AB/RBI

And those numbers A-Rod preforms quite well AB/R 3.27, and AB/RBI 4.89. Considering Babe Ruth had AB/R 3.79 and AB/RBI 3.86....A-Rod measures up pretty well. Cabrera has AB/R 5.15 and AB/RBI 6.00...so I guess this thread is wrapped up....although Miguel is still pretty young, and you'd hope would get better (or at least us Tiger fans do).

Third post in this thread is the breakdown of the top Tigers in histrory in those stats....

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=71180

[danesei]

Starting with a bit of opinion... I think ARod enjoys being a Yankee. He went against Boras to sign with them.

Anyway, to the point of the debate, ARod handily beats Miguel Cabrera.

Fielding: ARod actually plays 3b. Cabrera fills in there due to the strength of his bat. Winner - ARod.

Hitting for Power: ARod hits "15-20 HR" more per season. Winner - ARod.

Base-running/-stealing: ARod's efficiency on the basepaths destroys Cabrera. Winner - ARod

Hitting for Average: Push.

Batting eye: ARod strikes out significantly less than Cabrera. Cabrera places the ball well. Let's call it a push.

So, on the offensive side of the coin, ARod holds 75/25 edge, and on the defensive side, 100/0 edge.

Regardless of RBI comments, ARod is the better player now. ARod at the same age was the better player.

The biggest indicator that ARod is the better of the two... Cabrera's indicator of potential. Miguel Cabrera best compares to possibly reaching the levels of Hank Aaron or ALEX RODRIGUEZ.

I am a Cabrera fan, but my understanding of the game requires that I acknowledge ARod to be the better player.

[LAMOHEAD]

:happy: Id be glad to mention that Cabrera is terrible as a defenseman. He is a pretty slow guy. A-Rod made it to the 40-40 club. Cabrera has not even made it into the 10-10 club. A-Rod usually get about 45-48 homers a year. Cabrera only gets about 30. So yah, I rest my case.

[tigers527]

The orginal intent of the thread as stated was which player will have a better offensive year in 2008. Putting a poll up about either players defense or the "complete" package would be at best folly. I was merely suggesting that their offensive numbers have a chance at being pretty close.

Granted, to consider the chance A-Rod would have to take a step back from his 2007 output, and Miguel a step up. Not an impossible proposition considering there aren't many years in the history of MLB 3rd sackers better then A-Rod's 2007. Also, the upgrade in talent surrounding Cabrera should increase his production from 2007.

But A-Rod is just FLAT filthy....AB/R 3.27, and AB/RBI 4.89. Babe Ruth had AB/R 3.79 and AB/RBI 3.86.

This thread should be interesting to revisit around 09/2008. Then we should have an idea of who preformed better in 08.

[Sean Ryan]

A-Rod and Cabrera will be 1 and 2 in MVP voting.

If there numbers are close, A-Rod would win it every time.

A. Fields his position better
B. Does the little things, goes 1st to 3rd, steals bags.

[tigers527]

If there numbers are close, A-Rod would win it every time.

A. Fields his position better
B. Does the little things, goes 1st to 3rd, steals bags.
Miguel can so go from the 1st doughnut to the 3rd doughnut better then anyone in MLB. Except for maybe Crispy Creme Sabathia. :D :D :D

[LAMOHEAD]

Look, A-Rod is turning 33 this year. Cabrera is only turning 25. A-Rod's been in the league since about 1995. Cabrera= 2003. What I'm trying to say is that Cabrera has a bunch of MLB experiences ahead of him. And just to be fair, Cabrera I think is going to be the MLB's "next big man.:cap:

[LAMOHEAD]

Right now, A-Rod is the top 3rd baseman in the league:yawn:

[stejay]

Is this a joke question? It has to be A rod

[Westlake]

If there numbers are close, A-Rod would win it every time.

A. Fields his position better
B. Does the little things, goes 1st to 3rd, steals bags.

What about C?

C. A-Rod will always beat Cabrera is the most important stat, GPAAY (Games played as a Yankee).

[Fuzzy Bear]

I picked A-Rod, but it's close.

Cabrera may have a little trouble adjusting to the AL; that may be a factor. His OWP level has stabilized in the low .700s; that's excellent for a corner outfielder, and he's still young enough to improve, so Miggy might be at over .800 next year. A-Rod's hitting his stride, however; barring injury, he'll certainly be over .700.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Is this a joke question? It has to be A rod

A-Rod, last 3 years Offensive Winning Percentage: .792, .640, .788.

Cabrera, last 3 years Offensive Winning Percentage: .707, 743, 712.

A-Rod has achieved stabilization at a higher level of offensive performance, plus Cabrera is changing leagues and parks. Cabrera, however, is showing season to season stability at a high level, and he's still got some growth going for him. A minor injury to A-Rod could be enough to give Cabrera the better offensive year. The question isn't a joke at all.

[pdwiggins]

AROD all the way. I think the NL Rookie Ryan Braun will have as good of a year as Miguel C. and that's coming from a Cubs fan ;)

[Sean Ryan]

AROD all the way. I think the NL Rookie Ryan Braun will have as good of a year as Miguel C. and that's coming from a Cubs fan ;)

He won't be playing 3B though....

[danesei]

The greatest irony of this argument is that David Wright, arguably the best 3B in the game from a fielding vantage point, might beat Cabrera in offensive production in 2008.

Bill James (one of the great SABR minds) projects the following lines for 2008:

Cabrera
AB 606 H 198 2B 44 HR 35 R 109 RBI 128 BB 81 K 123 SB/CS 3/2 AVG .327

Wright
AB 603 H 192 2B 45 HR 31 R 111 RBI 115 BB 84 K 113 SB/CS 27/7 AVG .318

Rodriguez (for comparison)
AB 601 H 180 2B 29 HR 47 R 125 RBI 133 BB 93 K 134 SB/CS 19/6 AVG .300

So outside of batting average and doubles (more a result of age than anything), ARod utterly destroys Cabrera.

Now, if we're talking power output, the SABR numbers present an interesting case:

Cabrera
OBP .411 SLG .579 ISO .252

Wright
OBP .407 SLG .554 ISO .236

Rodriguez
OBP .406 SLG .586 ISO .286

Both ARod and Wright close the gap on Cabrera in OBP (mostly due to Cabrera's abysmal BB/K ratios). This is the primary reason why ARod's isolated power numbers are so much more important than the RBI debate.

Now, looking at 2007, I found something pretty interesting...

For all the arguments of ARod being a "choker" by Yankee fans, there is no basis for it. Also, Cabrera could expect a DROP in his OBP with the Tigers.

Cabrera (Runners on Base/Runners in Scoring Position)
AVG .376/.378 OBP .469/.485 SLG .639/.628 HR 15/9 RBI 100/80

Rodriguez (RoB/RiSP)
AVG .329/.333 OBP .443/.460 SLG .719/.678 HR 36(!)/18 RBI 138/98

Wright (RoB/RiSP)
AVG .332/.310 OBP .433/.431 SLG .571/.544 HR 14/7 RBI 91/74

Cabrera had significant help in the BB/K department due to having runners on base, with a ratio near 1, and no "protection" in the line-up.

I suspect that Cabrera's BB numbers will fall by 15%+ due to the "protection" that he'll have in the Detroit line-up. I also suspect his K numbers will increase by 8%+ for this same reason. However, this is where things get scary good for Miggy.

With Detroit's offense setting the table for Cabrera, it is reasonable to see an increase in the number of AB-opportunities that he'll have with RoB. This could push his RBI numbers to the 130-150 range. It will all depend upon where he projects into the Detroit line-up. If he's batting fifth, I don't expect this increase to happen, but if he's 3/4, then it's reasonable. (The problem with the Tigers' offense is that it is TOO good. ABs are fairly static, so with great hitters ahead/behind of you, the possibility that your RBIs get leeched goes up, as well.) That being said, I agree, for the most part, with James' projections. I suspect, however, that Cabrera might see a drop in AVG & BB to go along with an increase in RBI & K.

So, I am hopeful that Miggy will have a MVP-esque season, but I suspect that ARod continues to rake with the greatest of all time and beats Miggy again. Maybe 2009? Now, Wright V Cabrera... there's a debate.

[tigers527]

Month of April stats:

Miguel Cabrera: .270BA, 5HR, 19RBI, 15R, .470SLG%, .338OBP, .823OPS

Alex Rodriguez: .286BA, 4HR, 11RBI, 14R, .495SLG%, .343OBP, .838OPS

I would give the month of April to Miguel. Before everyone starts yelling about A-Rod being on the DL, anyone that watched the first 2 weeks of the Tigers season could tell you that Miguel should have also been on the DL, his hamstrings were so messed up the guy could barely run.

[Westlake]

I would 'give' the month of April to A-Rod.

[tigers527]

I would 'give' the month of April to A-Rod.
That's cool, I guess you were also one of the few that did not complain too loudly when Magglio received a couple first place votes in last years MVP race???