Adenhart Holding Up Cabrera Deal

[Kotch]

Per RotoWorld:

A source told the Miami Herald that the biggest sticking point in the Miguel Cabrera negotiations between the Marlins and Angels is Nick Adenhart's inclusion in the deal.
The Marlins reportedly want Adenhart along with Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits and Jeff Mathis. The Angels, though, may insist on substituting in a lesser property. Ervin Santana qualifies.

I say, do it. Kendrick is less than 3 months younger than Cabrera. Does he really have any more arbitration eligible years than Cabrera? Willits and Mathis are irrelevant, Adenhart is more than a fair price for such an upgrade. After the Hunter signing though it doesn't surprise me that Reagins fails to see this.

Moneyball > Reaginomics

[plask_stirlac]

Willits is irrelevant? That's harsh.

Would they play Kendrick at 3B in Florida?

[Kotch]

Willits is irrelevant? That's harsh.

Would they play Kendrick at 3B in Florida?

He didn't have to be irrelevant, but the Angels made him irrelevant to their future plans (his value now is as a throw-in like this deal) when they signed Matthews (Rivera's broken leg gave him the time he deserved last year though) and even more so when they signed Hunter. It's not that he doesn't have any value, but we payed $90 M for a minor upgrade so I don't think there is any reason to keep him around. It's not like we already didn't have Willits, Vlad, Rivera, Anderson and Matthews. Reagins is an idiot, but you can't unsign Hunter now so might as well trade Willits and/or Rivera for something of more value to us.

I don't know where they would play Kendrick, Uggla was rumored to be a part of some trade scenarios.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Reagins is pretty dumb then, sure Adenhart is good, but he's more of a two than anything.


My main man KG on Adenhart:

1. Nick Adenhart, RHP
DOB: 8/24/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 14th round, 2004, Williamsport HS (MD)
2007 Stats: 3.65 ERA at Double-A (153-158-65-116)

Year In Review: Stolen in the 2004 draft because he required Tommy John surgery, Adenhart nonetheless reached Double-A at 20, where he pitched well enough, just not quite as good as expected.
The Good: Adenhart has all the tools to be a front-line starter. He’s tall and long-limbed, has smooth mechanics, and pitches primarily off his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and features good movement. His changeup is a second plus offering, with excellent arm action and late fade. His curveball has sharp break at times, flashing the potential to be a future third plus offering. He’s shown no ill effects from the surgery, throwing strikes and maintaining his stuff both in games and throughout the season.
The Bad: Adenhart got hit for the first time in his life in 2007, and didn’t adjust well to it, with one scout describing his reaction as “pitching defensively,” as he’d nibble at the corners and often find himself behind in the count. He often took a while to get going, especially with his control, often not getting into a groove with either his command or velocity until the second or third inning.
Fun Fact: More than one-fourth (17) of Adenhart’s 65 walks were issued in the first inning.
Perfect World Projection: A number two starter and occasional All-Star.
Timetable: Adenhart will join the Triple-A rotation at 21, and should be in line for his major league debut at some point in 2008. He’ll be a rotation fixture by 2009.

The Angels should go with that package that they had there and throw in Adenhart. They no longer need Willits (that and he's overrated as hell), they would likely move Figgins to second and let Wood play shortstop. The team would look something like this:

Rotation:
Lackey
Weaver
Escobar
Garland
Colon


That's a good rotation, good enough to get them into the playoffs, now to the line up:

2B: Chone Figgins
RF: Gary Matthews Jr.
3B: Miguel Cabrera
DH: Vladimir Guerrero
SS: Brandon Wood
CF: Torii Hunter
LF: Garret Anderson/Juan Rivera
C: Mike Napoli

They'd also have a bench that features Erik Aybar who can play the middle infield decently which would allow them some flexibility in the out field. To really solve their problems they would be smart to get rid of Rivera/Anderson and have Fukudome play RF and have Matthews play LF.

[Westlake]

You get a chance to get a bat like Miguel Cabrera's, and you don't pull the trigger because of Nick Adenhart?? 10 years from now, Angels fans...

Angels Fan #1: Dude did you know that we could have had Miguel Cabrera in 2007 if we would have given them NICK ADENHART?!?!

Angels Fan #2: Who in the hell is Nick Adenhart?

Seriously, I don't get it. A guy that had a 3.65 ERA in AA, a guy that *might* at some point be in the Angels rotation, a guy that *if he is lucky* will be a #2 or 3 starter at some point -- and you don't want to give him up even if it gets you a guy who is on a HOF pace, and is only 24 years old. Amazing.

It's like all the Yankee people that don't want to give up Ian Kennedy in order to get Santana. IAN KENNEDY.

Yankee fan #1: Hey, remember Ian Kennedy?
Yankee fan #2: The Senator?

And this is for JOHAN SANTANA. Two-time Cy Young winner at the age of 28. Best pitcher in baseball for the last half decade.

Sorry, my rant is over.

[ChrisLDuncan]

You get a chance to get a bat like Miguel Cabrera's, and you don't pull the trigger because of Nick Adenhart?? 10 years from now, Angels fans...

Angels Fan #1: Dude did you know that we could have had Miguel Cabrera in 2007 if we would have given them NICK ADENHART?!?!

Angels Fan #2: Who in the hell is Nick Adenhart?

Seriously, I don't get it. A guy that had a 3.65 ERA in AA, a guy that *might* at some point be in the Angels rotation, a guy that *if he is lucky* will be a #2 or 3 starter at some point -- and you don't want to give him up even if it gets you a guy who is on a HOF pace, and is only 24 years old. Amazing.

It's like all the Yankee people that don't want to give up Ian Kennedy in order to get Santana. IAN KENNEDY.

Yankee fan #1: Hey, remember Ian Kennedy?
Yankee fan #2: The Senator?

And this is for JOHAN SANTANA. Two-time Cy Young winner at the age of 28. Best pitcher in baseball for the last half decade.

Sorry, my rant is over.

There's also the chance that Cabrera gets even more out of shape and hurts himself making a play on a rocket down third. With Santana, there is always the senario in which he's peaked and it's all down hill. I don't think either Kennedy or Adenhart will turn into people that fans will forget, however I agree with what you're saying. You don't let Adenhart get in the way of Miguel Cabrera. You maybe see if you can keep Mathis or Willits and offer someone else but Adenhart is not a deal breaker for Cabrera. Especially when the team is loaded with pitching talent. There is always the chance that Ervin Santana rebounds and starts playing well (even if not I'm sure he can be an above average to good fifth starter)

[Mattingly]

You get a chance to get a bat like Miguel Cabrera's, and you don't pull the trigger because of Nick Adenhart?? 10 years from now, Angels fans...

Angels Fan #1: Dude did you know that we could have had Miguel Cabrera in 2007 if we would have given them NICK ADENHART?!?!

Angels Fan #2: Who in the hell is Nick Adenhart?

Seriously, I don't get it. A guy that had a 3.65 ERA in AA, a guy that *might* at some point be in the Angels rotation, a guy that *if he is lucky* will be a #2 or 3 starter at some point -- and you don't want to give him up even if it gets you a guy who is on a HOF pace, and is only 24 years old. Amazing.

It's like all the Yankee people that don't want to give up Ian Kennedy in order to get Santana. IAN KENNEDY.

Yankee fan #1: Hey, remember Ian Kennedy?
Yankee fan #2: The Senator?

And this is for JOHAN SANTANA. Two-time Cy Young winner at the age of 28. Best pitcher in baseball for the last half decade.

Sorry, my rant is over.
First, it's for the 2008 season.

Second, it's been Ian Kennedy that this Yankee fan has said he'd definitely part with for Johan Santana. It's been Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain that many of us have said we wouldn't part with.

I wouldn't quite put Miguel Cabrera and Johan Santana in the same category, since I've not heard rumors of Johan being overweight, unlike Miggy. While it seems as if their teams' GMs are expected 3- or 4-player packages of 2008-ready players, I'd rather put my chips where they may on Santana, even if we didn't have the very fit A-Rod returning to 3B.

[Westlake]

First, it's for the 2008 season.

Second, it's been Ian Kennedy that this Yankee fan has said he'd definitely part with for Johan Santana. It's been Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain that many of us have said we wouldn't part with.

I wouldn't quite put Miguel Cabrera and Johan Santana in the same category, since I've not heard rumors of Johan being overweight, unlike Miggy. While it seems as if their teams' GMs are expected 3- or 4-player packages of 2008-ready players, I'd rather put my chips where they may on Santana, even if we didn't have the very fit A-Rod returning to 3B.

I've heard many around here say they don't even want to give up Kennedy.

Overweight. I've not heard such a big deal made about a guys weight in a while. In the AL, we have TWO positions overweight guys can play, 1st and DH. If the time comes where Miguel can't play 3rd, it's not the end of the world at all. I'm not even talking about the Yankees acquiring Cabrera, that wouldn't make any sense.


There's also the chance that Cabrera gets even more out of shape and hurts himself making a play on a rocket down third. With Santana, there is always the senario in which he's peaked and it's all down hill. I don't think either Kennedy or Adenhart will turn into people that fans will forget, however I agree with what you're saying. You don't let Adenhart get in the way of Miguel Cabrera. You maybe see if you can keep Mathis or Willits and offer someone else but Adenhart is not a deal breaker for Cabrera. Especially when the team is loaded with pitching talent. There is always the chance that Ervin Santana rebounds and starts playing well (even if not I'm sure he can be an above average to good fifth starter)

There's also a chance of me being the first man on mars.

You don't think Adenhart or Kennedy will burn out, but I think the chances of that are higher than them become bonafide MLB starters over the next 10 years.

[plask_stirlac]

When has Cabrera missed time? When has Prince Fielder missed time? I suppose Lackey is NOT technically overweight? Troy Glaus? What a crock.

Miguel Cabrera is temendous, a Grade B Pujols on offense and playing 3B. Teams should clear out the young players for this guy.

[cosmo34]

2B: Chone Figgins
RF: Gary Matthews Jr.
3B: Miguel Cabrera
DH: Vladimir Guerrero
SS: Brandon Wood
CF: Torii Hunter
LF: Garret Anderson/Juan Rivera
C: Mike Napoli


Aybar's gonna play SS over Wood.

[Mattingly]

I've heard many around here say they don't even want to give up Kennedy.

Overweight. I've not heard such a big deal made about a guys weight in a while. In the AL, we have TWO positions overweight guys can play, 1st and DH. If the time comes where Miguel can't play 3rd, it's not the end of the world at all. I'm not even talking about the Yankees acquiring Cabrera, that wouldn't make any sense.
Actually, it's Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain that many of us don't wish to give up. You've certainly been in the Yankee forum before. Check out the "Offseason" thread that's stuck there.

What's the big deal about Nick Adenhart? He's got a 2.56 ERA in the Minors. How highly is he rated by Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus? Is he their top prospect? Is he at least considered a blue chipper?

By 1st and DH, you mean Nick Youkilis and David Ortiz? Yes, Ortiz is overweight, but that's quite a lot of muscle underneath that fat. He's also 6'4". He looks to me to about about 265 lbs.

I see that Miggy Cabrera hasn't played fewer than 155 games since 2004. How's his baserunning? How's his fielding?

I see now that he's also played the corner OF (248 games in LF; 100 in RF). Does he intent to switch positions?

I personally think it takes more athleticism to play 3B than 1B. I think that Cabrera's certainly an excellent offensive force.

I just don't think it's fair to have a team trade their players for a 3Bman then have to convert him to a 1Bman, even if he mashes very well. This means that the team now has to look for a 3Bman all over again. What if the team already has a very good 1Bman?

[ChrisLDuncan]

Aybar's gonna play SS over Wood.

Why? :hp:shrug:

[cosmo34]

Aybar's a more natural fit at SS. Wood began transitioning to third this past year. He had 74 games at 3rd, 34 at SS, and 5 at DH.

Timetable: Monday’s trade of Orlando Cabrera opened up the shortstop job, but management quickly made it clear that the competition for that job is between Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis. That doesn’t mean Wood is left out in the cold, as he’ll compete for the third base job in spring training. From BP

[ChrisLDuncan]

Aybar's a more natural fit at SS. Wood began transitioning to third this past year. He had 74 games at 3rd, 34 at SS, and 5 at DH.

From BP

Well if they trade for Cabrera, wood at SS makes the most sense.

[Kotch]

Somebody needs to clear some room in Josh Byrne's fan club, because this **** is really pissing me off. Why even hire Reagins? Just because he's a nice guy and he's next in line? What is the chance the guy who is next in line is actually the best candidate? Moreno is a good business man, but he doesn't have any baseball logic and thinks that all baseball people are the same. All of these guys think sabermetrics don't work because the A's "choke". As much as I dislike the A's, I deep down want them to win like 3 or 4 world series' in a row so the reign of bad GM's can finally end.

Steve Finley, Gary Matthews Jr., Torii Hunter... Carlos Beltran, A-Rod? No, we can't commit that much to one player! Instead we must live and die by Vladimir Guerrero and periodically waste money on the most overrated/costly CF commodity available.

Well if they trade for Cabrera, wood at SS makes the most sense.

Yeah. I would move Aybar to 2B and platoon him with Izturis and if Wood doesn't work out just move Aybar to SS and have Stu play 2B.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Where would you pick Figgins? OF, I'd put him at second.

[cosmo34]

Well if they trade for Cabrera, wood at SS makes the most sense.


Not really. Getting Cabrera will make it ok for Wood to get more seasoning at AAA.

Plus getting Cabrera won't be the Angels last move. They'll have other chips to move, probably for more pitching. Trade or no trade, Aybar or Izturis is gonna play SS.

[EyeCandy]

Dan Uggla is rumored to play 3B if an third baseman isn't received for Cabrera.

[digglahhh]

I see that Miggy Cabrera hasn't played fewer than 155 games since 2004. How's his baserunning? How's his fielding?

Pretty bad, and pretty bad.

He still an absolute monster at the dish, good enough that baserunning is an afterthought, and defense, though important, is forgivable.

I see now that he's also played the corner OF (248 games in LF; 100 in RF). Does he intent to switch positions?

He got called up during the Marlins' run in 2004. He played the OF while Florida had Lowell, they wanted to clear third for him, but couldn't until they got rid of Lowell. He wasn't great in the OF either.

I just don't think it's fair to have a team trade their players for a 3Bman then have to convert him to a 1Bman, even if he mashes very well. This means that the team now has to look for a 3Bman all over again. What if the team already has a very good 1Bman?

I don't think people are saying that position switch is in the cards, per se. That point is made in response to those who say that Miggy's prime may not last very long because he is young and gaining weight yearly. So, to refute that, people say that even if he does gain a lot of weight, he could still play 1st or DH.

It's odd that teams and fans don't want to give up guys with the potential to be stars, for guys who are already stars.

Ian Kennedy's allure is that he might develop to me anything remotely close to Santana - so why not give him up for Santana? Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game - even if you take the top 20 offensive prospects today - mathematically speaking, odds are still that not a single one of them turns into as good a hitter as Cabrera.

This is like being asked to your senior prom by Angelina Jolie, and not dumping your homely date for her, because you saw an episode of Oprah once when some ugly duckling chick became a supermodel. You have an HOF caliber player now; what's the point of gambling on growing your own?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

There's also the chance that Cabrera gets even more out of shape and hurts himself making a play on a rocket down third. With Santana, there is always the senario in which he's peaked and it's all down hill. I don't think either Kennedy or Adenhart will turn into people that fans will forget, however I agree with what you're saying. You don't let Adenhart get in the way of Miguel Cabrera. You maybe see if you can keep Mathis or Willits and offer someone else but Adenhart is not a deal breaker for Cabrera. Especially when the team is loaded with pitching talent. There is always the chance that Ervin Santana rebounds and starts playing well (even if not I'm sure he can be an above average to good fifth starter)

Enough with the Miguel Cabrera fat jokes. Who cares if he showed up last season weighing 260? He ended up setting career highs in HR and RBI and he hit .320. He's the best player in baseball under the age of 25. He's worth signing even if you have to move him to OF in a few years or even DH - he's that good of a hitter. Look at his "Similar Batters" on baseballreference.com:

Similar Batters through age 24:
1. Hank Aaron
2. Ken Griffey Jr.
3. Frank Robinson

Most Similar by Age:
21. Hank Aaron
22. Hank Aaron
23. Hank Aaron
24. Hank Aaron

[ChrisLDuncan]

Enough with the Miguel Cabrera fat jokes. Who cares if he showed up last season weighing 260? He ended up setting career highs in HR and RBI and he hit .320. He's the best player in baseball under the age of 25. He's worth signing even if you have to move him to OF in a few years or even DH - he's that good of a hitter. Look at his "Similar Batters" on baseballreference.com:

Similar Batters through age 24:
1. Hank Aaron
2. Ken Griffey Jr.
3. Frank Robinson

Most Similar by Age:
21. Hank Aaron
22. Hank Aaron
23. Hank Aaron
24. Hank Aaron

I was just saying risk exists regardless. Adenhart shouldn't hold up this deal.

[ElHalo]

This is like being asked to your senior prom by Angelina Jolie, and not dumping your homely date for her, because you saw an episode of Oprah once when some ugly duckling chick became a supermodel. You have an HOF caliber player now; what's the point of gambling on growing your own?

Yes, because trading for an ace worked out so well for the Yankees when they picked up Randy Johnson, and Kevin Brown, and Javier Vazquez, and Jeff Weaver.

Two things stick out to me about that sentance. One, I just remembered that I Javier Vazquez was once supposed to be the second coming of Pedro Martinez. Two, the Tigers got both Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman for Jeff Weaver. Weird.

[Westlake]

Yes, because trading for an ace worked out so well for the Yankees when they picked up Randy Johnson, and Kevin Brown, and Javier Vazquez, and Jeff Weaver.

Two things stick out to me about that sentance. One, I just remembered that I Javier Vazquez was once supposed to be the second coming of Pedro Martinez. Two, the Tigers got both Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman for Jeff Weaver. Weird.

I assume you are talking about trading for Santana.

1. Randy Johnson: You traded for a 41 yr old pitcher, and got him for nearly nothing. A) What did you expect? B) Whats the big loss?

2. Kevin Brown. 39 When traded for. You really expect all these guys to turn out to be Clemens when they're 40, 41, or what?

3. Javier Vasquez: In no way, shape, or form was he even close to the pitcher Pedro Martinez was, nor was he supposed to be. Only thing they had in common is that they were both once Expos.

4. Jeff Weaver: Incredibly overrated. His career best ERA at that point was like 3.5 or 3.6. Santana has done better than that for the last 6 years.

Please tell me how any of these guys would give you the production Santana probably would.

[digglahhh]

Thanks Westlake,

Add to Brown's age the fact that he had been hurt two of the three seasons prior to being signed by the Yankees. Granted, he was awesome the year before they signed him though.

Javier Vasquez, Jeff Weaver... that's really grasping for straws. The definition of an ace has been mutilated, IMO. Just because you are the best pitcher on your team, that doesn't make you an "ace," de facto - it only makes you better than your teammates. If you're going to argue that those guys were aces, you are hinging your argument on the assumption that the rest of us are going to accept the neutering of a description because common usage has destroyed its meaning. The only guys who refer to Vazquez (who was a pretty damn good pitcher for a while) and Weaver (who wasn't) as aces, are their respective agents... and apparently, EH, when he is more concerned with making a point than with the integrity of the argument he is using to do so.

[TonyStarks]

Yankee fans already dread the Angels...why the H E Double Hockey Sticks can't the Dodgers pull the damn trigger and get Cabrera already???

[KCGHOST]

The Angels would be giving up a lot but they would be getting a monster who could easily be the bat they need to storm into the playoffs with a bona fide shot at it all.

[cosmo34]

Angels are dumb if they pass up this deal. If I was the GM I woulda pulled the trigger a long time ago.

Cabrera is a monster and he's still a baby in baseball years. Holding out cuz of a pitcher who hasn't pitched a single inning in the majors is dumb. If it were Bucholz or someone similar, ok, but Adenhart is a solid #2 at best. I'm wondering if they don't wanna give him up because they have an "attatchment" to him, since they took a chance on him in the draft knowing about his impending surgery and he's turned out great.

On the other hand maybe they haven't heard that they have an outstanding farm system and haven't figured out that you can A) wait for them to turn into studs, or B) trade them at their highest value (I.E. still a prospect) and get a guy like Cabrera.

You don't get many chances to get a guy on pace for a 1st ballot HOF career when he isn't even 25 yet.

[ElHalo]

The only guys who refer to Vazquez (who was a pretty damn good pitcher for a while) and Weaver (who wasn't) as aces, are their respective agents... and apparently, EH, when he is more concerned with making a point than with the integrity of the argument he is using to do so.

I won't deny that I am often wont to exaggerate claims for the sake of an argument, but I will admit that, when we got Javier Vazquez, the following two thoughts went through my head:

a) For the first time in my lifetime, the Yankees will have the best pitcher in baseball.
b) Vazquez is the best pitcher we've picked up since Jack McDowell.

In retrospect, the first thought wasn't true, and the second one just flat-out doesn't make sense.

[Kotch]

a) For the first time in my lifetime, the Yankees will have the best pitcher in baseball.


I didn't know the Yankees were getting Jake Peavy.

[plask_stirlac]

Miggy does kind of hit like young Manny.

Or first two years Pujols, or Papi before this year, pick your stud.

[doane]

Miggy does kind of hit like young Manny.

Or first two years Pujols, or Papi before this year, pick your stud.

Or by BBR Similarity Scores:

21. Hank Aaron (956)
22. Hank Aaron (955)
23. Hank Aaron (959)
24. Hank Aaron (950)