Reds signing closer Cordero...brutal deal [Archive]

OleMissCub

11-23-2007, 04:17 PM

OUCH

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3124583

The Cincinnati Reds have reached preliminary agreement on a four-year, $46 million contract with closer Francisco Cordero, a baseball source confirmed to ESPN.com.

The deal, which includes a club option for a fifth year, is subject to Cordero passing a physical exam. The agreement was first reported by Foxsports.com.

Cordero, 32, has 177 career saves in nine seasons with Detroit, Texas and Milwaukee. He ranked second in the National League with 44 saves last season in Milwaukee and made the National League All-Star team

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 04:37 PM

He more than doubled his salary from $5.4m to $11.5m/yr. This puts him between the Mets' Billy Wagner $10.25m and the Yanks' Mo Rivera ($15m) next season.

How much would you have signed him for next season? $8m or so? These salaries are skyrocketing already.

wilkerson_rulz-06

11-23-2007, 04:53 PM

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 05:06 PM

Cordero was good last year but struggled mightily the year before, leading him to be dealt.

I don't like this overpayment, it's starting to piss me off as a fan to see some of these guys get money they don't deserve.

Wagner > Cordero
Rivera > Cordero

Why should he get as much as Wagner and almost as much as Mo?
He actually is getting $1.25m more than Billy Wagner. He's still $3.5m under what Mo will get.

What Mo got was also an overpayment, but then again, that's likely his "Thank you for all you've done, you'll retire a Yankee, now here's your gold watch + pension" deal.

I think it's strange when a guy starts struggling in the AL, then does so well in the NL.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cordefr01.shtml

In 2006, he had a 4.81 ERA in 49 games with Texas, but then had a 1.69 ERA in 28 games with the Brewers to finish 2006, then had a 2.98 in 66 games with them in 2007.

At least he had the wisdom to stay in the NL where he's finally getting more successful. He had good numbers in Milwaukee. However, I'd be interested more in a 3-year deal instead of 4. However, with the ways these free agents are, they all want more money and/or years if going to another team.

SamtheBravesFan

11-23-2007, 05:06 PM

Just think about how he'll be in 4 years. Yeesh.

Erik Bedard

11-23-2007, 06:32 PM

In all fairness, the Reds needed a closer pretty desperately.

plask_stirlac

11-23-2007, 07:12 PM

dgarza

11-23-2007, 07:22 PM

In all fairness, the Reds needed a closer pretty desperately.
What kind of starter could they have gotten for that money? That's what they really need. But I guess a "real" closer is better than what they've gone after in the past.

plask_stirlac

11-23-2007, 08:03 PM

What kind of starter could they have gotten for that money? That's what they really need. But I guess a "real" closer is better than what they've gone after in the past.

They need a real bullpen. It's possible to get four or five above-average relievers without focusing on one closer, but it's very unlikely. So it's the closer and then back like the Mets after 2005 assing Wagner, Roberto Hernandez, Darren Oliver, etc.

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 11:06 PM

In all fairness, the Reds needed a closer pretty desperately.
So you're saying that they overpaid to get a decent closer? Would that be similar to how Magglio Ordonez went to Detroit for $75m/5 yrs?

OleMissCub

11-23-2007, 11:32 PM

How much would you have signed him for next season? $8m or so? These salaries are skyrocketing already.

8m sounds about right given today's market. With most pitcher's I'd factor in whether he's a good postseason type of guy, but I don't think that matters given the team he's heading to.

KCGHOST

11-23-2007, 11:40 PM

It always amazes me when I see what teams will spend for a guy who is going to pitch about 70 IP's per year.

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 11:59 PM

8m sounds about right given today's market. With most pitcher's I'd factor in whether he's a good postseason type of guy, but I don't think that matters given the team he's heading to.
Seems strange. If they come to the Yanks, they know they can get a ridiculous salary. Sterling Hitchcock got $12m/2 yrs and he was a mid reliever. Kenny Lofton got $6m/2 yrs, which is more per season than he'd made in the prior 2 seasons combined.

Now with a lower payroll team, they still get crazy money. Is there a type of team in the middle of the payroll range that pays market value? Or has the whole FA market gone nuts and decided that everyone who's a bit "above average" gets about 40% or more above market value?

Yeah, postseason performance is a good indicator. If he'd remained unhurt for a few years, I'd include that. I'm a bit wary of guys who have had very bad years, then for one his (which just happens to be his walk year), he's awesome and reliable. How good will he be the next year is what I have to wonder?

OleMissCub

11-24-2007, 12:42 AM

Yeah, postseason performance is a good indicator. If he'd remained unhurt for a few years, I'd include that. I'm a bit wary of guys who have had very bad years, then for one his (which just happens to be his walk year), he's awesome and reliable. How good will he be the next year is what I have to wonder?

I avoid average players coming off great contract years like the plague in fantasy baseball, I'd suggest wise GM's do the same :-)

Oddly enough, I was just watching Ken Burns' Baseball and they showed reporters mentioning "skyrocketing" salaries and used Roger Clemens as an example...his contract they were talking about: 5yr/7.5m!!! HAHA!

redlegsfan21

11-24-2007, 03:42 AM

That's not that bad. They spent $6.5 M for Cormier, Mike Stanton, and Weathers. Obviously that's based on past history, but it was pretty much a total loss. Jamie Wright gets $12 M/3 yrs.

Imagine if Milwaukee had relied upon Dave Weathers to close for them.

David Weathers has been amazing in the closer's role and the Reds ended the 2007 season with only one loss when leading after 8.

cardsfanatic

11-24-2007, 06:02 AM

/shrugs, I'm just glad it was the Reds dishing out this deal and not another NL Central team. That's all I can say about it that's good.

NineWorldSeries

11-24-2007, 07:04 AM

David Weathers has been amazing in the closer's role and the Reds ended the 2007 season with only one loss when leading after 8.

Yes, but remember how many times they blew it in the 8th :)

Had Weathers had a lot more opportunities to save games that the rest of the bullpen gave away... who knows what would have happened. Remember how utterly horrible he was in 2006?

nerfan

11-24-2007, 07:32 AM

I avoid average players coming off great contract years like the plague in fantasy baseball, I'd suggest wise GM's do the same :-)

Oddly enough, I was just watching Ken Burns' Baseball and they showed reporters mentioning "skyrocketing" salaries and used Roger Clemens as an example...his contract they were talking about: 5yr/7.5m!!! HAHA!

HAHA!! I remember that.

Cordero is getting so overpaid its not even funny. The Reds could have got Freddy Garcia or Livan Hernandez for that money.

plask_stirlac

11-24-2007, 07:50 AM

David Weathers has been amazing in the closer's role and the Reds ended the 2007 season with only one loss when leading after 8.

I did not know that. I know they were really awful through May and June and I then went to work at a summer camp and definitely didn't track NL teams much.

BosoxOrioles69

11-24-2007, 08:49 AM

Reds were desperate enough to make that move. Good to see one of the sucky teams to make a wise move in a while, although they really overpaid him for it this time.

digglahhh

11-24-2007, 01:20 PM

It always amazes me when I see what teams will spend for a guy who is going to pitch about 70 IP's per year.

I remember hearing an interview with J.R. Richardi in which he said that after getting Ryan (this interview was in '06, when Ryan was healthy) it kind of changed his views about closers. He actually said that he thought Ryan was as valuable to his team as Halladay. :hp

Charger567

11-24-2007, 04:33 PM

I don't get it.. What does this do for them? They aren't winning any time soon, unless they expect a good closer to turn the team around.

OleMissCub

11-24-2007, 05:37 PM

They aren't winning any time soon

Certainly not with Dusty Baker as manager.

plask_stirlac

11-24-2007, 06:19 PM

I don't get it.. What does this do for them? They aren't winning any time soon, unless they expect a good closer to turn the team around.

4-year deal.

BoSox Rule

11-24-2007, 06:34 PM

If I'm Theo I just sign Papelbon now and get it over with before things get even more out of control.

Solrac

11-24-2007, 06:39 PM

Why Are Team Paynig So Much For A Guy That At Most Could Throw 75 Innings+...11.5M...15M...10M??? I Wouldnt Pay More Than 5M Unless I Am Convinced That This Guy Can Throw 85+ Innings And 40+ Sv And A Sub-2.00 Era...

redlegsfan21

11-24-2007, 08:34 PM

I don't get it.. What does this do for them? They aren't winning any time soon, unless they expect a good closer to turn the team around.

Read this fact, if 1/3 of the Reds' blown saves had not occured and the Reds go on to win those games, then the Reds would have been NL Central champs. But instead, the Reds finished 5th. That is how disasterous the bullpen has been.

Mattingly

11-25-2007, 07:36 AM

Read this fact, if 1/3 of the Reds' blown saves had not occured and the Reds go on to win those games, then the Reds would have been NL Central champs. But instead, the Reds finished 5th. That is how disasterous the bullpen has been.
Were those games blown in the 8th inning by the mid relievers or setupman, or were those games blown in the 9th by the closer?

redlegsfan21

11-25-2007, 07:55 AM

Were those games blown in the 8th inning by the mid relievers or setupman, or were those games blown in the 9th by the closer?

Setup men and middle relievers. Now, David Weathers is a setup man that just happens to have to pitch the 9th so with the Reds' new closer, we can move Weathers back to his original spot and hopefully, from what I saw last year from Marcus McBeth, a strong 7-8-9 innings relief core. Another interesting fact is the Reds lost 25 games when leading or tied after 7 and lost 10 games when tied after 8. The Reds also suffered 48 losses after leading compared to 34 come from behind wins.

icee82

11-25-2007, 09:41 AM

As a Reds' fan, you literally shuddered in the eighth inning of every game. Their bullpen lost so many games in the eighth. The announcers began calling it the "fateful eighth".

FatAngel

11-25-2007, 10:03 AM

redlegsfan21

11-25-2007, 01:47 PM

A question:
To build a playoff-caiber team, what would be your priorities ?
In my opinion a good closer is pretty much the final piece of the puzzle. That said, this contract is flat-out crazy, since the Reds have enough other holes to fill and Cordero isn´t that special - or am I wrong ?

Those holes are relief pitching and starting pitching. I think Cordero rounds the bullpen out fairly well as long as no major injuries occur. One hole filled, two more needed (a SP and a SP).

Mattingly

11-25-2007, 01:56 PM

Setup men and middle relievers. Now, David Weathers is a setup man that just happens to have to pitch the 9th so with the Reds' new closer, we can move Weathers back to his original spot and hopefully, from what I saw last year from Marcus McBeth, a strong 7-8-9 innings relief core. Another interesting fact is the Reds lost 25 games when leading or tied after 7 and lost 10 games when tied after 8. The Reds also suffered 48 losses after leading compared to 34 come from behind wins.
So you're saying that David Weathers was originally a setup man but was forced into the closer's position since he was the likeliest candidate? And that with his being returned to setup, and the mid-relievers being returned to their spot, that everyone will be more effective in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings?

redlegsfan21

11-25-2007, 05:55 PM

David Weathers was originally signed to be the set-up man. But when the Reds released Danny Graves, the Reds went into a closer-by-committee. The only exception was late in 2006 with Eddie Guardado. At the beginning of the 2007 season, this was to be the case again. But through spring training and April, David Weathers became the full-time closer and even sometimes being his own set-up man (most 4+ out saves in the NL). Also at the end of the 2007 season Marcus McBeth showed great signs of improvement from the beginning of the season and had become the set-up man for David Weathers in late 2007. Bill Bray also had some shots at the set-up and closer role late and proved to be decent. Now with Cordero, the Reds can move Weathers back to his original position in the order of relief and the bullpen can become very strong.

Westlake

11-25-2007, 06:02 PM

Because of what redlegs has said, I expect the Reds to win 100 games next year.

redlegsfan21

11-26-2007, 09:21 PM

Because of what redlegs has said, I expect the Reds to win 100 games next year.

Probably not because the starting pitching could be a problem. Harang and Arroyo are goo to go but Bobby Livingston is coming into spring training with some elbow problems that cropped up in August, Matt Belisle isn't someone I could trust but hopefully it will be better since he was just in his first year as a starter, Homer Bailey is OK but I don't expect him to last more than 5 innings each start (even with Baker as the manager) and the Reds haven't given anyone a chance to look at Johnny Cueto. Tom Shearn has showed promise but has showed control problems.

Some more problems may crop up over the offseason such as Griffey injuring himself somehow or a major trade.

Mattingly

11-26-2007, 11:00 PM

redlegs, fine posts I'll have to say. ;) :p

You've just come on over here recently, but please introduce yourself. Tell us about yourself, the Reds and any other team(s) you've followed over the years, and any views on baseball that you like? Be it the Hall of Fame, he spirit of the game, or simply the rulebook. Whatever it is that you've found about baseball that makes you want to return to the topic, please do share with us! :D

brewcrew82

11-27-2007, 03:39 AM

Umm Matt, redlegs has been with us for quite a while. In fact he's been a mod here for a reasonable amount of time. Formerly known as nascarfn5.

Mattingly

11-27-2007, 03:46 AM

Umm Matt, redlegs has been with us for quite a while. In fact he's been a mod here for a reasonable amount of time. Formerly known as nascarfn5.
Yeah, and guess who nominated him, too? That would be myself. Sheesh!

I saw the "3" under the number of blog entries and I thought that was the post count. I'm going to have to catch up.

Now then, who gave all these people permission to change usernames w/o notifying all the rest of us?

Oh well, I'll have to clear the egg off my face soon. :(

645

12-04-2007, 02:49 AM

Yeah, You can say it is a Brutal and I've give you that. It may have been. But the bottom line is closers are in high demand and Cordero was the best one out there for the taking. So the bottom line is who ever sign him was going to over pay for him.

And as it turn out the Reds where the one that was disperate enough to pay it.