Would Twins trade Cy Santana for Crisp and Buchholz!? [Archive]

Zagi-CRO

11-23-2007, 02:24 AM

The Boston Herald reported Thursday there is growing speculation that the Minnesota Twins will move ace left-handed Johan Santana. The Herald reported the Boston Red Sox will be in the hunt to acquire the Cy Young Award winner.

Rumors are the Twins have already inquired about center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury and right-hander Clay Buchholz, plus other top prospects. A more realistic package, perhaps, would have Coco Crisp filling Minnesota's hole in center field. Also included would be one of two top starting prospects, Buchholz or lefty Jon Lester. The Sox would likely have to include at least one other proven major league talent, plus one, more likely two, other minor leaguers. The Twins are known to be high on Crisp.

Other objectives during the hot stove season include working on a contract extension for manager Terry Francona, adding bullpen arms and bolstering the bench. But adding Santana, and keeping him away from the New York Yankees, would make the Red Sox significantly better.
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It would be trade of the year!

Richmond Hill Phoenix

11-23-2007, 02:51 AM

Here's the link to that article: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1046361.

The key phrase is "one other proven major league talent". I would think that a more reasonable deal would be Crisp, Lester, Bucholz and then a few minor leaguers. The Twins aren't going to deal Santana unless it's for a great package of guys, and I think that's what it would take.

Rags2Riches

11-23-2007, 04:41 AM

no way only Crisp and Bucholz get a deal struck between the Twins & Sox....that would be a terrible deal for the Twins......if only 2 players are dealt by the Sox, Jacoby Ellsbury would have to be 1 of them imho.......

nerfan

11-23-2007, 06:16 AM

The Twins are known to be high on Crisp.

If that doesn't sound like a drug reference, I don't know what does.

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 07:06 AM

There's also this thread (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=66665) in the Twins forum for a potential Santana trade.

If the Twins were interested in doing this, the Yanks could easily counter with Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy. I'd think that there would be more players involved.

Once he hits the FA market next winter, are you going to have a deal in place by then? Something tells me he'd be expected at least $20m/yr and for about 4-5 years.

BosoxOrioles69

11-23-2007, 08:00 AM

They certainly would, they need a centerfielder who's fielding is if not as good as Hunter, similar to Torii Hunter's fielding skills. With a young phenome who will replace Santana in upcoming years and a MLB ready prospect.

Now if Buchholz is in the deal, Ellsbury is not, but if Ellsbury is in the deal, Buchholz is not and Lester will be.

But I'd rather see Buchholz go then see Ellsbury go. Because I've seen lots of rookie pitchers who's thrown a no-hitter turn to toast. He's have a lot more to prove.

Ellsbury in the other hand, he's played spectacularly the last month, he's been our leadoff man in the WorldSeries, getting on base and hitting balls when we needed it.

So it could be - Buchholz, Masterson, Declarmen, and Coco for Santana

Not bad in my opinion.

Santana
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Wakefield

that rotation would dominate the leagues.

40 wins from Beckett and Santa alone, and 45 from the rest of the three. That'll make 85wins alone from the rotation.

Now if the Redsox are willing to pay Santana 126 million over 7 years like he asked, this trade is a steal for us.

Richmond Hill Phoenix

11-23-2007, 08:23 AM

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 08:48 AM

Sure the trade is a steal. But the Twins would never pull the trigger on that.

You have to remember, it's pretty much what the Twins ask for in this situation. They have all the cards, and can choose what they want in return. If that team doesn't want to give up what the Twins want, then they'll just keep Santana, at least until the Trade deadline.
The package seems reasonably fair to me. One problem is that if they wait until July 31st, then his value goes down, since he'll be a 2-month rental.

Also, if he has a poor 1st half in 2008, then his value goes down even further.

I think the Yanks would have to counter with Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Shelley Duncan and a 4th player.

I'm not sure how much higher Santana's stock will be than it presently is.

Ytown Tribe fan

11-23-2007, 09:03 AM

I wouldn't trade Johan for Manny, even if you threw in a few million of his salary.

brett

11-23-2007, 09:16 AM

I wouldn't count on much from Crisp and versus a starter with 4 straight top seasons you are giving up one of baseball's surest things for an unknown value.

Then again, Santana is probably a lock for 20 million a year. When is that coming?

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 09:16 AM

I wouldn't trade Johan for Manny, even if you threw in a few million of his salary.
All depends upon whether or not Minnesota needs a slugger who wants to be traded every spring. They're both free agents next season, so their status seems the same.

Who would you accept via trade if you were in the Twins' FO?

Neilios

11-23-2007, 10:52 AM

Who would you accept via trade if you were in the Twins' FO?

I'd look to fill the holes in CF, 2B and SP. I'd try to pry Cano from the Yankees, or perhaps Phillips from the Reds. Then I'd go for young but unproven talent in the OF (M. Cabrera, Ellsbury, Maybin) and P (Lester, Kennedy, Bailey, Billingsley). The Twins have the advantage of being in the driver seat for this one. But I'd also get what I could for him by 7/31/08.

ElHalo

11-23-2007, 10:53 AM

Charger567

11-23-2007, 11:27 AM

Crisp and Bucholz would just not be enough to get it done; my understanding is that the Yankees' offer would be Wang, Kennedy, and Cabrera. That's essentially the Red Sox' offer plus a guy who's won 38 games the last two years.

Not quite,

Kennedy/Cabrera does not equal Buchholz and Crisp.

Cabrera and Crisp are about equal.
Buchholz and Kennedy are not... Maybe Buchholz and Hughes or Chamberlain, but not Kennedy. I think he is the most overrated prospect in the organization.

He came into the season as a projected #3 or #4, and just because he had 3 good games in the majors that does not suddenly make him an ace.

So it could be - Buchholz, Masterson, Declarmen, and Coco for Santana

That sounds somewhat fair, I think Minnesota may be getting the edge on this deal. A future ace in Buchholz, a solid future starter in Masterson, a top set up man in the league in Delcarmen, and a cheap gold glove worthy centerfielder. I think we'd be giving a little bit too much.

If we could keep Delcarmen and maybe switch him with Hansen (don't know how he's doing, so don't quote me on this,) I'd do it in a second.

BosoxOrioles69

11-23-2007, 11:38 AM

Cabrera and Crisp are about equal.

I agree with everything you have said except for this, no they are not equal. I would say Cabrera is better by an inch.

Cabrera has a wide future, and Coco is now considered somewhat washed up. After his .286 and +15 homerun season in 2004 and his move to the Redsox, he hasn't shown any sign by any mean of offense. Although I can see he is one of the best defensive centerfielder. Cabrera has hit .273 this year with .327 OBP. Coco has hit .268 with .330OBP.

But the Twins would value Cabrera's strong cannon arm and his fielding which is almost equivalent with Coco, and his young age which means he has a lot more possiblities and potential than Coco does.

Charger567

11-23-2007, 01:03 PM

I have always heard Cabrera's defense is miserable, except for his cannon.

ElHalo

11-23-2007, 01:09 PM

I have always heard Cabrera's defense is miserable, except for his cannon.

Well, you heard wrong on that. His RF in CF last year was 2.75, significantly above average. He got 4.9 defensive WS, even though he spent a good amount of time in LF, and he was 12 FR above average according to BP. He's not an all time great defensive CF, but he's certainly well above average. And, of course, Ichiro's probably the only CF in baseball with a better arm.

BosoxOrioles69

11-23-2007, 01:11 PM

I have always heard Cabrera's defense is miserable, except for his cannon.

I don't know where you've heard that, but stats and the plays he makes in games proves that wrong. If not the best in the league, his fielding is above average, let alone miserable.

Mariano_Rivera

11-23-2007, 01:11 PM

I have always heard Cabrera's defense is miserable, except for his cannon.

You heard wrong

I`d much rather have Cabrera than Crisp. Of course I`d also rather have Bucholz than Kennedy. Not quite equal but it s not that far from equal.

Would Robinson Cano, Alan Horne, and Ian Kennedy be enough for Santana Twins fans

ElHalo

11-23-2007, 01:17 PM

You heard wrong

I`d much rather have Cabrera than Crisp. Of course I`d also rather have Bucholz than Kennedy. Not quite equal but it s not that far from equal.

Would Robinson Cano, Alan Horne, and Ian Kennedy be enough for Santana Twins fans

I'd rather give up another pitcher than Cano (preferably Wang; I'd rather keep Chamberlain and Hughes). Good offensive 2Bmen who are also fantastic on defense (people inexplicably knock Cano's defense; he was fourth in the majors in defensive WS's for 2Bmen last year) are hard to come by.

Mike27

11-23-2007, 01:25 PM

I think he is the most overrated prospect in the organization.

He came into the season as a projected #3 or #4, and just because he had 3 good games in the majors that does not suddenly make him an ace.

I realize that Kennedy doesn't have the highest ceiling, but have you seen his minors stats during this past season? He had arguably the best pitching season in the minors. Kennedy will probably never be an ace, but I think he's still a pitcher many teams would value in a trade.

Oh, and I doubt Kennedy/Melky or Crisp/Bucholz would be anywhere enough for Santana.

Charger567

11-23-2007, 01:26 PM

You heard wrong

I`d much rather have Cabrera than Crisp. Of course I`d also rather have Bucholz than Kennedy. Not quite equal but it s not that far from equal.

Would Robinson Cano, Alan Horne, and Ian Kennedy be enough for Santana Twins fans

I would too. I must have been hearing about Miguel Cabrera and heard it wrong or something. But the gap between Buchholz and Kennedy is far too great. He is a future ace, Kennedy is a #3/4 who had a few good games in the show.

Cano, Horne, and Kennedy may be enough, but if I were the Twins I would easily pick Buchholz, Masterson, Delcarmen and Crisp any day.

(Honestly, I'd rather keep them, the only way I'd trade them is to keep him away from NY so they don't steal our division.)

BosoxOrioles69

11-23-2007, 01:41 PM

ChrisLDuncan

11-23-2007, 02:12 PM

I don't know where you've heard that, but stats and the plays he makes in games proves that wrong. If not the best in the league, his fielding is above average, let alone miserable.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=1&pos_filter%5B%5D=8&Submit=Submit

I also don't know where he got that Melky was a bad defender. I'd also like to see Melky and Coco's hold/kill rates.

ChrisLDuncan

11-23-2007, 02:14 PM

Giving Wang up for Santana would be a foolish thing to do. Only difference between those two are strikeout numbers and dominance. Wang doesn't dominate the batters like Santana does when he's pitching but he gets the job done. After missing the first three weeks this season Wang still notched 19 wins and Santana with only 15, there might be a run-support difference, but still. Right now Wang is clearly the Yankees' ace. Giving up prospects and the ace to bring another ace that just pitches in a different way.

I know some of you will not share the same view as I have, but this is just my opinion,

Going to have to disagree with you here. Yes, Wang is a good pitcher perhaps even a very good pitcher. But Santana is an ace. Wang tends to forget how to pitch on the road, and he gets rocked by good line ups. The playoffs showed that the Yanks can not match ace for ace with good teams. The only thing that concerns me about Santana is the HRs given up, but with guys who live on their change ups that's just something you have to deal with.

Charger567

11-23-2007, 02:45 PM

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=1&pos_filter%5B%5D=8&Submit=Submit

I also don't know where he got that Melky was a bad defender. I'd also like to see Melky and Coco's hold/kill rates.

Why do you care? I thought I heard somewhere that Cabrera was a bad fielder. That was hardly the heart of my post. Everyone else had already established I was falsely informed, I had even addressed it. Why is that mistake the only thing people respond to? If you are going to ignore the argument, why would you bother correcting one false statement?

plask_stirlac

11-23-2007, 02:56 PM

I think the Twins should get a formidable OF, 3B, and either another OF or SP. So the Dodgers would be the best partner. They'd still need a DH. And they probably should make the minimum for a while.

LF is like a hole as well, Kubel can't recover forever.

insanefishpossay

11-23-2007, 03:36 PM

Once he hits the FA market next winter, are you going to have a deal in place by then? Something tells me he'd be expected at least $20m/yr and for about 4-5 years.

If above-average talent like Barry Zito and Torii Hunter can command $18 million a year, I wouldn't be surprised if Santana can fetch A-Rod type money on the free agent market.

BosoxOrioles69

11-23-2007, 03:39 PM

If the Sox are trying to get Santana, I guess they're planning on paying him 126M per 7 years. Why would Theo give all the prospects away for a 2month rental ace?

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 03:39 PM

I have always heard Cabrera's defense is miserable, except for his cannon.
In his first year it was horrendous. This season, I've seen him grab a ridiculous number of hits that would've gone for doubles and scored guys who were hitting-and-running from 1B.

I'd say the fact that Cabrera can play LF & CF means that he could also play RF if they'd wanted him to. He's played a great LF (when Matsui was on the DL) before Damon's physical weakness and bad foot forced Melky to CF.

NYMets523

11-23-2007, 03:47 PM

I doubt the legitimacy of Boston's interest. The only reason their name is coming up is b/c of the Yankees. Boston has no reason to trade any of their young pitchers for an ace when they already have Beckett and Matsuzaka for a few years. Yankees make more sense but it all depends on their willingness to trade Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain (one will likely have to be part of the deal. Kennedy is not going to cut it).

In his first year it was horrendous. This season, I've seen him grab a ridiculous number of hits that would've gone for doubles and scored guys who were hitting-and-running from 1B.

Cabrera needs a map in the OF. He takes a lot of bad routes on balls. He's let singles turn into doubles and doubles into triples.

Crisp and Bucholz would just not be enough to get it done; my understanding is that the Yankees' offer would be Wang, Kennedy, and Cabrera. That's essentially the Red Sox' offer plus a guy who's won 38 games the last two years.

Except it's not. Plus, let's not forget Wang only won 38 games the past 2 years because the Yankees score so many runs. Won't be the case in Minnesota.

I think the Yanks would have to counter with Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Shelley Duncan and a 4th player.

Not even the Twins GM in a baseball video game would take that deal. Maybe if you swaped Hughes or Chamberlain instead of Kennedy. The Twins don't get a starting CF in that deal (sorry, Melky isn't ready). Shelly Duncan is nothing more than a minor leaguer.

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 03:49 PM

Does anyone remember having read that Minnesota would not allow any trade partner to get an extension before the trade is sent to finalization & approval by MLB? I'm trying to find out where I'd read this.
If above-average talent like Barry Zito and Torii Hunter can command $18 million a year, I wouldn't be surprised if Santana can fetch A-Rod type money on the free agent market.
How much is A-Rod type of money, anyway? A-Rod just won the MVP by running away with it. Johan Santana has been one of the best pitchers this season, but he'd have had to put up much better numbers in 2007 than in 2006, but his ERA floated above 3 (to 3.33). He was tied for 5th in the AL CYA voting.

I'll agree that Barry Zito and Torii Hunter are above-talent. However, I wouldn't pay top- or second-tier money for above-average talent. I think they're both being paid 30% (Zito) or 50% (Hunter) above what they're really worth. It's the marketplace that forced this via desperate GMs. Then they blame the Yankees for crazy contracts like they don't do the very same thing.

I think that Zito and Hunter were crazy contracts. I don't think that Zito would've gotten $18 if not for the fact that he'd been the top-rated FA pitcher. I think it was a matter of the marketplace giving him the highest contract.

When a declining pitcher like Jason Schmidt gets $16m and the Yanks aren't even interested, I think that says that he was also a result of the market going ga-ga for what little was left out there. This for what may have been the 2nd highest FA pitcher on the market last winter.

If Johan is traded, he'll definitely be the highest-rated pitcher on the market, either via FA & trade. I think he'll command top dollar, but I think it'll be in the low 2s ($22m/yr) rather than $27m. He also isn't getting a 10-year deal.

Anyway, separate deals, and Anaheim obviously got desperate and just threw money in Hunter's face, which he picked up off the ground. I'm not sure how that improves the market, since A-Rod got what many felt he'd get. Torri Hunter got about 50% more than what many felt he'd get, and few that I know of would've given him more than 3 years.

Hunter's deal wouldn't affect the market for SPs, so Zito's deal last season seems more relevant. In today's market with Santana being more strongly discussed, I say he wouldn't have gotten that unless teams simply got frustrated that they could never meet Minnesota's player price tag and still win games.

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 04:10 PM

Giving Wang up for Santana would be a foolish thing to do. Only difference between those two are strikeout numbers and dominance. Wang doesn't dominate the batters like Santana does when he's pitching but he gets the job done. After missing the first three weeks this season Wang still notched 19 wins and Santana with only 15, there might be a run-support difference, but still. Right now Wang is clearly the Yankees' ace. Giving up prospects and the ace to bring another ace that just pitches in a different way.

I know some of you will not share the same view as I have, but this is just my opinion,
I wouldn't toss in Wang either. His BB:K ratio may not scream ace, he didn't fare well against Josh Beckett in their last two starts from both cities, but he still has a lot of upside, I feel.

If Andy Pettitte returns, he may be our ace. He's had very good games and a few clunkers thrown in, but both have shown "ace" material at times.

Wang hasn't had any 10 K games, but he's had games which, as you'd mentioned, didn't dominate, but he'd gone 7-8 innings and only allowed around 2 runs or so. That's not a guy I'd consider giving up via trade.

If I'm tossing in a pitcher, I'd have to go with either Ian Kennedy or Kei Igawa. I'm more interested in having Santana *AND* Wang, rather than instead of Wang.

ChrisLDuncan

11-23-2007, 04:50 PM

Why do you care? I thought I heard somewhere that Cabrera was a bad fielder. That was hardly the heart of my post. Everyone else had already established I was falsely informed, I had even addressed it. Why is that mistake the only thing people respond to? If you are going to ignore the argument, why would you bother correcting one false statement?

Your other point was that Buchholz was better than Kennedy...in other news the Pope is Catholic. However, a better point of discussion is "Is Lester better than Kennedy" if you want Santana it would require Buchholz or Jacoby plus more. The Twins are looking for a bat, they want Cano+ form the Yanks, so that means you would probably have to give up Jacoby and Lester plus some more to get Santana.

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 05:22 PM

Cabrera needs a map in the OF. He takes a lot of bad routes on balls. He's let singles turn into doubles and doubles into triples.
He doesn't seem lost to me. He may not be the most experienced CFer, but he seems to chase down the balls hit very hard that would otherwise have gone in for doubles. He's made a few catches that seemed to me like 2 runs would've scored easily.
Except it's not. Plus, let's not forget Wang only won 38 games the past 2 years because the Yankees score so many runs. Won't be the case in Minnesota.
He's had 6 games in 2007 where he allowed more than 4 runs. He's had 20 games where he's allowed 3 runs or less.

Wang's 2007 Game Log (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=6209)
Not even the Twins GM in a baseball game would take that deal. Maybe if you swaped Hughes or Chamberlain instead of Kennedy. The Twins don't get a starting CF in that deal (sorry, Melky isn't ready). Shelly Duncan is nothing more than a minor leaguer.
I don't think that the Yanks will ever give up Hughes or Chamberlain. They need those guys to play in 2008.

Melky plays LF & CF, and he seems to get quite a few balls hauled in. His left arm is strong and accurate. His offense may not be as high as Torii Hunter's, but then again, he wouldn't cost as much either. If the Twins want similar or even greater offense, they could simply bid for Aaron Rowand.

So who are the starting CFers that you think will be sent to Minnesota for Johan Santana?

NYMets523

11-23-2007, 05:31 PM

He doesn't seem lost to me. He may not be the most experienced CFer, but he seems to chase down the balls hit very hard that would otherwise have gone in for doubles. He's made a few catches that seemed to me like 2 runs would've scored easily.
He's still not ready to start. He'll definitely develop better instincts but he's still not ready to start in 2008.

He's had 6 games in 2007 where he allowed more than 4 runs. He's had 20 games where he's allowed 3 runs or less.

Wang's 2007 Game Log (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=6209)
Still, he's not close to being a 20 game winner if you put him on any team besides the Yankees.

Santana had 2 games where he allowed more than 4 earned runs. He had 23 games where he allowed 3 runs or less. In 18 of those, he allowed 2 runs or less. He finished 15-13. Add to the equation Santana strikes out more and Wang allows more hits (especially ground balls), and Wang would likely have a losing record and a ERA around 4.

I don't think that the Yanks will ever give up Hughes or Chamberlain. They need those guys to play in 2008.
Then they better hope Cashman is a wizard and gets the Twins to believe Melky is a starter and Duncan is worth putting on the 40 man roster.

Melky plays LF & CF, and he seems to get quite a few balls hauled in. His left arm is strong and accurate. His offense may not be as high as Torii Hunter's, but then again, he wouldn't cost as much either. If the Twins want similar or even greater offense, they could simply bid for Aaron Rowand.
Rowand will get a lot. Andruw Jones wouldn't be a bad idea if he's a 1 year commitment to reprove himself. The Twins likely want someone with a higher ceiling than Melky.

So who are the starting CFers that you think will be sent to Minnesota for Johan Santana?
It all depends on what teams are interested.

plask_stirlac

11-23-2007, 08:26 PM

I wouldn't toss in Wang either. His BB:K ratio may not scream ace, he didn't fare well against Josh Beckett in their last two starts from both cities, but he still has a lot of upside, I feel.

If Andy Pettitte returns, he may be our ace. He's had very good games and a few clunkers thrown in, but both have shown "ace" material at times.

Wang hasn't had any 10 K games, but he's had games which, as you'd mentioned, didn't dominate, but he'd gone 7-8 innings and only allowed around 2 runs or so. That's not a guy I'd consider giving up via trade.

If I'm tossing in a pitcher, I'd have to go with either Ian Kennedy or Kei Igawa. I'm more interested in having Santana *AND* Wang, rather than instead of Wang.

Kei Igawa? Can we get the rest of Pavano's contract while we're at it? If Bill Smith took him in any deal he would have to wear a bag on his head (or his letter of resignation).

Ramon Ortiz was better than Igawa.

NYMets523

11-23-2007, 08:40 PM

If I'm tossing in a pitcher, I'd have to go with either Ian Kennedy or Kei Igawa. I'm more interested in having Santana *AND* Wang, rather than instead of Wang.

Ah, Yankee fan logic. Pretty much anything that puts on pinstripes turns to gold. The Twins GM would die of laughter if Cashman said he had to choose between Kennedy and Igawa.

Wang is not an irreplaceable part. If you wouldn't give him up in a potential deal for Santana, you're a fool. The Yankees would have enough money to give him the money. You'd be replacing your "ace" with an ace (no quotes). It's obviously a lot more money but when has that been a problem?

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 11:23 PM

Ah, Yankee fan logic. Pretty much anything that puts on pinstripes turns to gold. The Twins GM would die of laughter if Cashman said he had to choose between Kennedy and Igawa.

Wang is not an irreplaceable part. If you wouldn't give him up in a potential deal for Santana, you're a fool. The Yankees would have enough money to give him the money. You'd be replacing your "ace" with an ace (no quotes). It's obviously a lot more money but when has that been a problem?
I'd actually prefer that you not go about calling people "fools". If I said you were being foolish, you may not appreciate it much.

Yes, you have to give up quality for quality, but let's face it, the Twins cannot afford to pay him in 2009. Look at how we got Alex Rodriguez. Would you have felt that Alfonso Soriano alone would've been enough to get us arguably the best position player out there? No, but the Yanks got him, didn't we?

How much did we pay for the first 4 years (2004-07)? $16m/yr. How much will Johan Santana cost? In 2008, it'll be his standard $13.25m, given that the trading partner takes his entire contract cost. Afterwards, it'll be as high as $25m. Could be in the low 20s though.

I think that when a high amount of money is involved, a team (the one that's trading) can get less picky. Are the Twins going to get Hughes, Chamberlain and Melky Cabrera from the Yanks? No.

Are they going to get Lester, Buchholz and Pedroia from the Red Sox? No. Those would obviously be deal sealers for both teams, but teams aren't going to give up the guys they need to rely upon after having acquired Santana.

Regardless of whether you're impressed with Wang, Cabrera, we have no problem with them. We're also not giving up Robinson Cano, who I believe would obviously get us Santana if we'd thrown in Phil Hughes.

If Boston can put together a better package than us, so be it. While I'd love to have Santana as a Yankee, we still have to keep as many of our core guys on our team.

I also don't think it's fair for you to act as if anyone who puts on pinstripes turns to gold. I don't think that Kei Igawa is some golden player. He's a pretty good player whose career in Japan was far better than what he's done in MLB. However, he can be offered via trade.

Time will be the key, and we'll have to see what the various GMs are offering.

Look at one of Santana's predecessors when Montreal couldn't afford him:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml#TRANS
November 18, 1997: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later and Carl Pavano. The Boston Red Sox sent Tony Armas (December 18, 1997) to the Montreal Expos to complete the trade.
Please let me know what's so great about Carl Pavano and/or Tony Armas that would lend them such a prized player?

Mattingly

11-23-2007, 11:24 PM

Kei Igawa? Can we get the rest of Pavano's contract while we're at it? If Bill Smith took him in any deal he would have to wear a bag on his head (or his letter of resignation).

Ramon Ortiz was better than Igawa.
In that case, please pick a team and let me know what kind of package you'd find acceptable for Johan Santana.

cardsfanatic

11-24-2007, 06:18 AM

If I'm the Twins GM I haven't seen a single trade offer in this entire thread worth Santana. So, I'd have to say, no to the original poster.

SamtheBravesFan

11-24-2007, 08:09 AM

Look at one of Santana's predecessors when Montreal couldn't afford him:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml#TRANS

Please let me know what's so great about Carl Pavano and/or Tony Armas that would lend them such a prized player?

That's an entirely different situation. Montreal traded him for people they could control and were cheap because they wouldn't be able to pay Pedro Martinez in the first place. I think Minnesota could pay Santana if they wanted to, they just might have to trade someone else to do so.

NYMets523

11-24-2007, 09:43 AM

I'd actually prefer that you not go about calling people "fools". If I said you were being foolish, you may not appreciate it much.
It's the nicest insult I could think of. I wouldn't care if anyone called me a fool.

Yes, you have to give up quality for quality, but let's face it, the Twins cannot afford to pay him in 2009. Look at how we got Alex Rodriguez. Would you have felt that Alfonso Soriano alone would've been enough to get us arguably the best position player out there? No, but the Yanks got him, didn't we?
That trade doesn't mean anything. Texas was stupid to give A-Rod that contract. Texas was notoriously bad at trades (They gave up Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. They traded Soriano for nothing). A-Rod was essentially a salary dump.

How much did we pay for the first 4 years (2004-07)? $16m/yr. How much will Johan Santana cost? In 2008, it'll be his standard $13.25m, given that the trading partner takes his entire contract cost. Afterwards, it'll be as high as $25m. Could be in the low 20s though.
They team getting Santana still only has to pay $13.25M. He's not getting $25M. He'd only get $20M if he hit the open market. He'll get Zito Money if he got traded.

I think that when a high amount of money is involved, a team (the one that's trading) can get less picky. Are the Twins going to get Hughes, Chamberlain and Melky Cabrera from the Yanks? No.

Are they going to get Lester, Buchholz and Pedroia from the Red Sox? No. Those would obviously be deal sealers for both teams, but teams aren't going to give up the guys they need to rely upon after having acquired Santana.
There's only a high amount of money involved if the team is trying to sign him to an extension. If a team intends to do so, they will have to give up MORE because they're giving up 3-4 young players to have the best pitcher in baseball in his prime for 7 years.

Regardless of whether you're impressed with Wang, Cabrera, we have no problem with them. We're also not giving up Robinson Cano, who I believe would obviously get us Santana if we'd thrown in Phil Hughes.
Yankees have said they will not trade Cano.

I also don't think it's fair for you to act as if anyone who puts on pinstripes turns to gold. I don't think that Kei Igawa is some golden player. He's a pretty good player whose career in Japan was far better than what he's done in MLB. However, he can be offered via trade.
I don't think that; it's the impression I get from some Yankee fans. Kaz Matsui had a good career in Japan. Should he get $10M a year for that? Kei Igawa is not going to cut it. Not with his contract. The Twins don't care what he did in Japan; he was awful in the majors.

Look at one of Santana's predecessors when Montreal couldn't afford him:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martipe02.shtml#TRANS

Please let me know what's so great about Carl Pavano and/or Tony Armas that would lend them such a prized player?

Using trades that happened years ago to prove that it won't cost 3-4 good, young players to get Santana doesn't make sense.

Here's Pavano's MiLB stats before 1997.

Year Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff W L W-L% G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA WHIP
1994 18 RSX GCL Rk BOS 4 3 .571 9 7 0 0 44 31 14 9 7 47 1.84 0.86
1995 19 MCH MWL A BOS 6 6 .500 22 22 1 0 141 118 63 54 52 138 3.45 1.21
1996 20 TRE EAS AA BOS 16 5 .762 27 26 6 0 185 154 66 54 47 146 2.63 1.09
1997 21 PAW INT AAA BOS 11 6 .647 23 23 3 0 162 148 62 56 34 147 3.11 1.12

Here are Armas'
Year Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff W L W-L% G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA WHIP
1995 17 YAN GCL Rk NYY 0 1 .000 5 4 0 0 14 12 9 1 6 13 0.64 1.29
1996 18 TOT 5 2 .714 11 10 0 1 62 55 30 26 24 59 3.77 1.27
YAN GCL Rk NYY 4 1 .800 8 7 0 1 46 41 18 16 13 45 3.13 1.17
ONE NYP A- NYY 1 1 .500 3 3 0 0 16 14 12 10 11 14 5.63 1.56
1997 19 TOT 10 4 .714 21 21 2 0 116 97 49 36 41 99 2.79 1.19
GBO SAL A NYY 5 2 .714 9 9 2 0 52 36 13 6 13 64 1.04 0.94
SAR FSL A+ BOS 2 1 .667 3 3 0 0 18 18 13 13 12 9 6.50 1.67
TAM FSL A+ NYY 3 1 .750 9 9 0 0 46 43 23 17 16 26 3.33 1.28

I can't tell you exactly what their prospect statuses were in 1997, but looking at these stats it seems they had promising futures but burned out.

nerfan

11-24-2007, 10:21 AM

As a Mets fan, I'd like to see Reyes traded for Santana heads up.. although that's a steal for the Mets.

Mattingly

11-24-2007, 10:32 AM

NYMets523, very nice post. I'll have to reply later on. Hopefully, I do get around to this quickly. The better & more well thought-out posts generally take me longer to reply in like manner.
As a Mets fan, I'd like to see Reyes traded for Santana heads up.. although that's a steal for the Mets.
If you wanted to trade for Johan Santana, what would you think would be a fair package of cost-controlled players they'd accept?

BallparkFrank

11-24-2007, 11:38 AM

ElHalo

11-24-2007, 11:44 AM

As a Mets fan, I'd like to see Reyes traded for Santana heads up.. although that's a steal for the Mets.

Jose Reyes is dangerously close to being a replacement-level player (average defense, average hitting, only real strength is baserunning). I could see the Twins doing a David Wright straight-up, but that wouldn't really gain them much, since Wright is going to start getting expensive in arbitration.

NYMets523

11-24-2007, 12:01 PM

As a Mets fan, I'd like to see Reyes traded for Santana heads up.. although that's a steal for the Mets.
It's a steal for the Twins. They're getting a premiere lead-off man and shortstop who is signed to a very, very cheap contract. The Mets would get 1 season of Santana and then have to sign him to a huge contract if they wanted to keep him. Plus they need to find a new SS.

Jose Reyes is dangerously close to being a replacement-level player (average defense, average hitting, only real strength is baserunning). I could see the Twins doing a David Wright straight-up, but that wouldn't really gain them much, since Wright is going to start getting expensive in arbitration.

Jose Reyes is not "dangerously close" to being a replacement player. He was going through a slump at the end of the season. It was especially difficult for him given the team's utter collapse which made his slump worse as he was trying to do too much. He still has tremendous talent and 1 bad month is not enough to give up on a 24 year old.

Mattingly

11-24-2007, 12:07 PM

I'm a Twins fan who thinks Coco is done. Not interested. Also do not want unproven pitching prospects as we have a ton of them ourselves. we want hitters and a 3rd baseman with a bat. Ellerby, Cano, Cabrera, you know guys who have already got it done in the majors and then some great hitting prospects from the minors.
Cano plays 2B, not 3B. The Yanks have him on their "do not move" list.

You expect Miguel Cabrera at 3B. I think that Florida is seeking almost the same type of package for him as what the Twins are for Cabrera, since he'll also be getting very expensive very shortly.

Jacoby Ellerby sounds reasonable as one of the included players.

digglahhh

11-24-2007, 12:07 PM

digglahhh

11-24-2007, 12:16 PM

Jose Reyes is dangerously close to being a replacement-level player (average defense, average hitting, only real strength is baserunning). I could see the Twins doing a David Wright straight-up, but that wouldn't really gain them much, since Wright is going to start getting expensive in arbitration.

So the Yanks can put together a decent offer with a bunch of crap - see the post I cited in my previous response.

But, for the Mets to make a credible offer, they have to offer up one the best players in the game who has yet to even reach his peak and is locked up for less than 50% of market value for the next 5 or 6 years?

NYMets523

11-24-2007, 12:37 PM

So the Yanks can put together a decent offer with a bunch of crap - see the post I cited in my previous response.

But, for the Mets to make a credible offer, they have to offer up one the best players in the game who has yet to even reach his peak and is locked up for less than 50% of market value for the next 5 or 6 years?

That's the logic some Yankee fans seem to have. The fact that a player is on the Yankees, his trade value is greater than it would be if he were on any other team. Fortunately, GMs don't buy this. However, it's unfortunate that some Yankee fans think this because it prevents from having an intelligent conversation.

ElHalo

11-24-2007, 12:38 PM

So the Yanks can put together a decent offer with a bunch of crap - see the post I cited in my previous response.

No, the Yankees can't put together a decent offer with a bunch of crap. The Yankees would have to offer:

Melky Cabrera: A really, really good fourth outfielder or a stopgap starting CF.
Ian Kennedy: The scouting report on him is that he's a third or fourth starter, largely because he doesn't throw hard, but his stat sheet is incredible. In the minors last year, he went 12-3 with 163 strikeouts in 146 innings, a 1.91 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and gave up a homer once every 24 innings. Then in a brief cup of coffee he put up a 1.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three starts. His stuff might not amaze scouts, but the numbers are most assuredly there, and watching him I see a young Mike Mussina (right down to the creepy leg bend when throwing from the stretch).
Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Chien Ming Wang: We've got the number one pitching prospect in all of baseball from 2007 (not consensus; some guys had Homer Bailey higher, in about an even split); the number one pitching prospect in all of baseball from 2008; and a guy who has won 38 games the last two years (despite the fact that, yes, he got good run support, and, no, he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, he's still put up ERA+'s over 120 both seasons, with WHIP's in the 1.30 range, he never gives up home runs, and he's managed, as an extreme groundball pitcher, to put up solid numbers despite playing in front of some seriously below average defenses.

I wouldn't call a package consisting of both of the first two guys and one of the last group of guys "a bunch of crap."

But, for the Mets to make a credible offer, they have to offer up one the best players in the game who has yet to even reach his peak and is locked up for less than 50% of market value for the next 5 or 6 years?

No, they wouldn't have to include Wright to make the offer... but to do it straight up, they absolutely would. Reyes straight up won't do it. The Mets' most credible offer, from what I've heard, is Lastings Milledge, Phil Humber, Joe Smith, and Mike Pelfrey.

ElHalo

11-24-2007, 12:40 PM

That's the logic some Yankee fans seem to have. The fact that a player is on the Yankees, his trade value is greater than it would be if he were on any other team. Fortunately, GMs don't buy this. However, it's unfortunate that some Yankee fans think this because it prevents from having an intelligent conversation.

Wow, talk about having an irrational anti-Yankee fan bias. I'll admit that bringing up the name of Kei Igawa is unfortunate (I literally can't think of anyone in all of baseball with less trade value; he's owed $8 mill a year for the next few and is basically a AA pitcher), but the Yankees do indeed have some pretty powerful bargaining chips to make a run at Santana.

digglahhh

11-24-2007, 12:50 PM

NYMets523

11-24-2007, 12:56 PM

No, the Yankees can't put together a decent offer with a bunch of crap. The Yankees would have to offer:

Melky Cabrera: A really, really good fourth outfielder or a stopgap starting CF.
Melky is good 4th OF. Not really, really good. He's a streaky hitter. Despite so many Yankee fans claiming he can have a 300 BA and 400 OBP, he's not even come close.

Ian Kennedy: The scouting report on him is that he's a third or fourth starter, largely because he doesn't throw hard, but his stat sheet is incredible. In the minors last year, he went 12-3 with 163 strikeouts in 146 innings, a 1.91 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and gave up a homer once every 24 innings. Then in a brief cup of coffee he put up a 1.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three starts. His stuff might not amaze scouts, but the numbers are most assuredly there, and watching him I see a young Mike Mussina (right down to the creepy leg bend when throwing from the stretch).
He's nothing special. The Twins have better options in their own system than Kennedy. BTW, Kennedy has bad mechanics.

Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Chien Ming Wang: We've got the number one pitching prospect in all of baseball from 2007 (not consensus; some guys had Homer Bailey higher, in about an even split);
Arugably the best pitching prospect in baseball. Plus he only pitched one good game, which he left with a hamstring injury.

the number one pitching prospect in all of baseball from 2008;
The Yankees got Clayton Kershaw? When did that happen?

and a guy who has won 38 games the last two years (despite the fact that, yes, he got good run support, and, no, he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, he's still put up ERA+'s over 120 both seasons, with WHIP's in the 1.30 range, he never gives up home runs, and he's managed, as an extreme groundball pitcher, to put up solid numbers despite playing in front of some seriously below average defenses.
Wang is a #2/#3 starter at best. His 38 wins the last 2 years are thanks to the best run support in baseball. If Santana went 15-13 this year, Wang would be lucky to have a .500 record in Minnesota. Look back at one my previous posts.

I wouldn't call a package consisting of both of the first two guys and one of the last group of guys "a bunch of crap."
It's crap compared to what the Twins can get. They might take that kind of deal from an NL team since they have the advantage of getting Santana out of the league for 7 years.

No, they wouldn't have to include Wright to make the offer... but to do it straight up, they absolutely would. Reyes straight up won't do it. The Mets' most credible offer, from what I've heard, is Lastings Milledge, Phil Humber, Joe Smith, and Mike Pelfrey.
Joe Smith won't be traded. The Twins like Gomez more than Milledge.

Wow, talk about having an irrational anti-Yankee fan bias. I'll admit that bringing up the name of Kei Igawa is unfortunate (I literally can't think of anyone in all of baseball with less trade value; he's owed $8 mill a year for the next few and is basically a AA pitcher), but the Yankees do indeed have some pretty powerful bargaining chips to make a run at Santana.
I don't hate the Yankees, who are as arrogant and have as big an ego as the front office. The problem with the Yankees is that they have mostly pitching prospects (something the Twins have a lot of). They would need to include Cano or one of their position prospects (IIRC, Tabata is one) if they have any hope of landing Santana.

ElHalo

11-24-2007, 12:56 PM

Okay, EH, I should not have referred to offer as a bunch of crap.

Still, how many GMs wouldn't trade that Yankee package for David Wright.

The package you proposed consisted of a utility OF, an overrated (yet still good) pitcher, and a prospect with an impressive resume but who the scouts don't rave about - something of an unknown quantity.

In regards to the Mets, you bring up the guy who deserved the NL MVP this past season.

I'm telling you, if I'm Bill Smith, I want to see Cano and Hughes to begin talks!

A package to trade for David Wright is an entirely different thing, because a) the Mets have enough money to keep Wright around forever, so they don't need to get value before he hits FA, and would literally need to get blown away by a deal which would unquestionably make their team better in order to pull the trigger on it, and b) he's a position player, and what you look for for a position player is very different from what you look for for a pitcher.

If I'm the Mets and I get an offer from the Yankees for Wright, it better be an absolutely stunning offer (Cano, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy) for me to pay any attention. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury.

NYMets523

11-24-2007, 01:16 PM

I could see the Twins doing a David Wright straight-up, but that wouldn't really gain them much, since Wright is going to start getting expensive in arbitration.

I just noticed this part. David Wright is not arbitration eligible. Here's his contract:
07:$1M, 08:$5M, 09:$7.5M, 10:$10M, 11:$14M, 12:$15M, 13:$16M club option ($1M buyout)

digglahhh

11-24-2007, 01:23 PM

I just noticed this part. David Wright is not arbitration eligible. Here's his contract:
07:$1M, 08:$5M, 09:$7.5M, 10:$10M, 11:$14M, 12:$15M, 13:$16M club option ($1M buyout)

That's why I said locked up for half of market value. Including the option, that's like $70 million over 7 years. That is literally half of the contract he would likely receive if was currently a FA.

ElHalo

11-24-2007, 01:23 PM

Melky is good 4th OF. Not really, really good. He's a streaky hitter. Despite so many Yankee fans claiming he can have a 300 BA and 400 OBP, he's not even come close.

He's nothing special. The Twins have better options in their own system than Kennedy. BTW, Kennedy has bad mechanics.

Arugably the best pitching prospect in baseball. Plus he only pitched one good game, which he left with a hamstring injury.

The Yankees got Clayton Kershaw? When did that happen?

Wang is a #2/#3 starter at best. His 38 wins the last 2 years are thanks to the best run support in baseball. If Santana went 15-13 this year, Wang would be lucky to have a .500 record in Minnesota. Look back at one my previous posts.

It's crap compared to what the Twins can get. They might take that kind of deal from an NL team since they have the advantage of getting Santana out of the league for 7 years.

Ok; the sheer irrationality of this post just proves my point that you do, indeed, have an anti-Yankee bias. Last I checked, Wang did not have the best run support in baseball the last two years (Randy Johnson had the best run support in the majors in 2006; Josh Beckett had the best run support in 2007). Wang was only fourth in the AL in run support last year. Please don't make statements like that unless they're at least true.

For Kennedy, tell me what, exactly, makes him "nothing special"? Take a look at his numbers from any level he's ever played at, and tell me why he's "nothing special"?

Hughes pitched one good game? No, he pitched that game you mentioned against Texas, and a gem in Cleveland, interspersed with a rough August. Then in September-Oct., he put up:

Sep 5, Sea: 6 IP, 2 ER
Sep 11, Tor: 6 IP, 1 ER
Sep 17, Bal: 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER
Sep 22, Tor: 5 IP, 3 ER
Sep 27, TB: 7 IP, 1 ER
Oct 4, Cle: 2 IP, 1 ER
Oct 7, Cle: 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER

As for the top 2008 pitching prospects, assuming you leave out the Hughes/ Bailey / Buchholz class, the rankings I've seen go:

1. Chamberlain
2. Kershaw
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Jacob McGee
5. Rick Porcello
6. Will Inman
7. Wade Davis
8. Brett Anderson
9. Ian Kennedy
10. Gio Gonzales

And, yeah, Wang might be a sub-.500 pitcher in Minnesota last year. Matt Garza and Carlos Silva were, and both would likely get 8 figure contracts now. Josh Beckett might have been too. What's your point? Wang's not as good as Santana - nowhere near - but he's still one of the ten best starters in the AL.

Jeez, have a bit of perspective. I don't go around bashing Mets that don't deserve it; there's no need to go slamming every Yankee in sight just because you hate the team.

ElHalo

11-24-2007, 01:24 PM

Mike27

11-24-2007, 02:52 PM

He's nothing special. The Twins have better options in their own system than Kennedy. BTW, Kennedy has bad mechanics.

Please explain Kennedy's bad mechanics. I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to hear what you have to say.

And to all the Melky bashers- If the season ends August 31, he's batting in the 290's with a 350 OBP. He's doing that as he just turns 23, and he's playing amazing defense, while also providing the Yanks, the sparkplug they need.
I think Melky could realistically be a .300 hitter, with a .360-.380 OBP, with great defense. Obviously not an MVP, but a valuable member to almost all teams.

nerfan

11-24-2007, 02:58 PM

Two Things

1. After rethinking the salaries involved, I agree with NYMets523. Reyes is locked up. Plus he's starting to take walks, and what really hurt him was Rickey Henderson.

2. The agents for David Wright and Jose Reyes are idiotic.

digglahhh

11-24-2007, 03:03 PM

Two Things

2. The agents for David Wright and Jose Reyes are idiotic.

You got that right. When I heard about the Wright deal, my first thought was if it was possible for me to actually devise a way to fire Wright's agent myself.

He's the bizarro Boras!

NYMets523

11-24-2007, 05:07 PM

Ok; the sheer irrationality of this post just proves my point that you do, indeed, have an anti-Yankee bias. Last I checked, Wang did not have the best run support in baseball the last two years (Randy Johnson had the best run support in the majors in 2006; Josh Beckett had the best run support in 2007). Wang was only fourth in the AL in run support last year. Please don't make statements like that unless they're at least true.
The Yankees scored roughly 6 runs every game Wang started. The Twins scored roughly 4 runs per game. That's a significant difference if he was on the Twins. Only an offensive juggernaut like the Yankees could use Wang as an ace. He would not cut it on a team with a less potent offense.

For Kennedy, tell me what, exactly, makes him "nothing special"? Take a look at his numbers from any level he's ever played at, and tell me why he's "nothing special"?
He has bad mechanics. He projects to be a 3-5th starter. The Twins have guys with higher ceilings in their farm system.

Hughes pitched one good game? No, he pitched that game you mentioned against Texas, and a gem in Cleveland, interspersed with a rough August. Then in September-Oct., he put up:

Sep 5, Sea: 6 IP, 2 ER
Sep 11, Tor: 6 IP, 1 ER
Sep 17, Bal: 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER
Sep 27, TB: 7 IP, 1 ER

I'll only consider those good. The rest he pitched too few innings. The 5 IP 3 ER is not impressive for "the best pitching prospect in baseball", especially against the Jays.

He had some really bad games.
4/26, Tor: 4.1 IP, 4 ER
8/4, KCR: 4.2 IP, 6 ER
8/20, LAA: 6.1 IP, 5 ER
8/26, Det: 6 IP, 5 ER

Simply put, he was way overhyped.

As for the top 2008 pitching prospects, assuming you leave out the Hughes/ Bailey / Buchholz class, the rankings I've seen go:

1. Chamberlain
2. Kershaw
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Jacob McGee
5. Rick Porcello
6. Will Inman
7. Wade Davis
8. Brett Anderson
9. Ian Kennedy
10. Gio Gonzales
I've seen Kershaw ranked #1 more often than Chamberlain.

And, yeah, Wang might be a sub-.500 pitcher in Minnesota last year. Matt Garza and Carlos Silva were, and both would likely get 8 figure contracts now. Josh Beckett might have been too. What's your point? Wang's not as good as Santana - nowhere near - but he's still one of the ten best starters in the AL.
Josh Beckett would not have because he's more of a strikeout pitcher than Wang; he puts fewer balls into play. My point is this: Why would the Twins want Chien Ming Wang? He is not a dominant pitcher and relies too much on run support and good fielding to be successful than his own abilities.

Jeez, have a bit of perspective. I don't go around bashing Mets that don't deserve it; there's no need to go slamming every Yankee in sight just because you hate the team.
I don't hate the team. I just don't buy into all the hype surrounding their young guys.

Please explain Kennedy's bad mechanics. I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to hear what you have to say.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Images/Examples/Example_InvertedL_IanKennedy_2007_004.jpg
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ThePitchingMechanic/Images/ChrisCarpenter_2006_052.jpg

His elbows bend upward which can lead to shoulder problems. His right forearm bends down and his elbow makes a 90 degree angle. Here's a pic of Chris Carpenter to compare. I'm not saying he'll turn out like Carpenter, but he'll likely have some problems.

2. The agents for David Wright and Jose Reyes are idiotic.

Reyes' agent, Peter Greenberg, is also Johan Santana's agent.

Mike27

11-24-2007, 05:26 PM

I don't know, I'm not really to sure about the arm angle leading to arm problems. I see what you mean, but I've never heard he has bad mechanics.

Here's an article I just read while looking around.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/first-impressions-buchholz-vs-kennedy/

As for the topic, I don't see the Twins getting the Cano/Hughes/Horne package everyone is talking about. They will be asking for it, but I just don't see any teams willing to give up that much. I think Santana is traded midseason, after the Twins make a strong run to resign him, but fail.

plask_stirlac

11-24-2007, 06:36 PM

At this point I might offer Santana and Nathan, or someone like Perkins if they want him instead, for Wright. That or to the Dodgers for a 3B, OF, and SP then worry about the DH. Again maybe include Nathan for a great prospect. They'll probably not send us Kernshaw, and I can deal with that. Maybe package him for Miguel Cabrera to upgrade for the departed Laroche.

I don't think the Twins are stingy offering him 5-yr/$100M but that might be too little. That's a pretty sweet deal, especially with pitching things can go wrong (Kevin Brown, Pedro's last deal). They definitely can't give him $25 per year out of a $75-85M payroll, especially long term. Then who else could be re-signed, really?

It's a bit sad but the Twins' shot was probably 2006 and mainly when Liriano and Radke were both well enough to pitch (Radke was badly hurt but was doing well.) This was supposed to be the next "shot" with Santana-Lirano-Garza but who knows. The offense figured to be worse in 2007 than 2006, Punto and Bartlett wouldn't hit as well for example, but it really went bad and now Hunter is gone.

I don't agree that Mauer will become a non-catcher, though he may have to DH more. Liriano may have to become a closer if his delivery is too violent for more than 20 or 25 pitches. Terry Ryan should have traded more pitching prospects, as valuable as they are, for position player prospects. We're starving now.

ChrisLDuncan

11-24-2007, 10:53 PM

He has bad mechanics. He projects to be a 3-5th starter. The Twins have guys with higher ceilings in their farm system.

Of course he does :rolleyes:

I'll only consider those good. The rest he pitched too few innings. The 5 IP 3 ER is not impressive for "the best pitching prospect in baseball", especially against the Jays.

He had some really bad games.
4/26, Tor: 4.1 IP, 4 ER
8/4, KCR: 4.2 IP, 6 ER
8/20, LAA: 6.1 IP, 5 ER
8/26, Det: 6 IP, 5 ER

Simply put, he was way overhyped.

4/26 was a bad game but I believe that was his debut, also after August. Lets try doing this to every pitcher in baseball, lets rip their hamstring on their push off leg let them go to rehab for it for a bit then rip it again, and see what they do. He was still pitching on a crappy hamstring for the most part. Your point is moot. However, if you want to bring up health concerns that is a different question all together.

I've seen Kershaw ranked #1 more often than Chamberlain.

It's a toss up once you get to Kershaw/Joba/Buchholz, either or would be good but if you had a gun to my head and told me I had to pick I'll take Kershaw only because he's younger and left handed. Neither of those men are anything to scoff at.

Josh Beckett would not have because he's more of a strikeout pitcher than Wang; he puts fewer balls into play. My point is this: Why would the Twins want Chien Ming Wang? He is not a dominant pitcher and relies too much on run support and good fielding to be successful than his own abilities.

Wang actually relies on his high GB% which is an ability, he's still a good two and a great three starter.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Images/Examples/Example_InvertedL_IanKennedy_2007_004.jpg
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ThePitchingMechanic/Images/ChrisCarpenter_2006_052.jpg

His elbows bend upward which can lead to shoulder problems. His right forearm bends down and his elbow makes a 90 degree angle. Here's a pic of Chris Carpenter to compare. I'm not saying he'll turn out like Carpenter, but he'll likely have some problems.
Reyes' agent, Peter Greenberg, is also Johan Santana's agent.
[/QUOTE]

IF the Mets want Santana they'd likely have to include Reyes.

NYMets523

11-25-2007, 11:51 AM

Of course he does :rolleyes:
It is true. I've yet to read anything that projects him to be higher than a 3rd starter.

4/26 was a bad game but I believe that was his debut, also after August. Lets try doing this to every pitcher in baseball, lets rip their hamstring on their push off leg let them go to rehab for it for a bit then rip it again, and see what they do. He was still pitching on a crappy hamstring for the most part. Your point is moot. However, if you want to bring up health concerns that is a different question all together.
My point isn't moot. My point is that he is not what the Yankees hyped him up to be. I don't think a torn hamstring is a major health concern like bad mechanics. But it's something they'll want to keep an eye on.

Wang actually relies on his high GB% which is an ability, he's still a good two and a great three starter.
Wang doesn't field the balls. He relies on good fielding.[/QUOTE]

IF the Mets want Santana they'd likely have to include Reyes.
They won't part with Reyes. He has too much talent to give up on. The Mets will have to use their best prospects to get him.

cosmo34

11-25-2007, 11:57 AM

Kennedy=USC=Dr. Tom House.

See Prior, Mark.

doane

11-25-2007, 02:45 PM

The agents for David Wright and Jose Reyes are idiotic.

Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore, and Brian McCann all have contracts like Wright and Reyes. It's a stability and financial planning thing.

Major league contracts are guaranteed. So if they get a career-ending injury, they still get paid until the contract is up. Under the arbitration process, they get the rest of that year's pay and that's it.

These contracts usually get signed before the player's first arbitration hearing and go one or two years into the player's free agency.

It's really a win-win. The player gets guaranteed money, and the club gets a cost-controlled star for an extra year or two.

monkey333

11-25-2007, 04:38 PM

BTW, Kennedy has bad mechanics.

Do you have anything to go on other than a picture of Chris Carpenter and your observations? Every scouting report I've read raved about his easy and repeatable mechanics. It was one of his biggest selling points around the draft.

My point isn't moot. My point is that he is not what the Yankees hyped him up to be.
Based on his debut season as a 21year old with hamstring and ankle injuries?

NYMets523

11-25-2007, 05:26 PM

Do you have anything to go on other than a picture of Chris Carpenter and your observations? Every scouting report I've read raved about his easy and repeatable mechanics. It was one of his biggest selling points around the draft.

Easy and repeatable doesn't mean they won't cause problems.

Based on his debut season as a 21year old with hamstring and ankle injuries?
Yes. The Yankees hyped him up to be the 2nd coming of Roger Clemens. All you heard from the Yankees was "He reminds me of Roger Clemens".

digglahhh

11-26-2007, 10:02 AM

Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore, and Brian McCann all have contracts like Wright and Reyes. It's a stability and financial planning thing.

Major league contracts are guaranteed. So if they get a career-ending injury, they still get paid until the contract is up. Under the arbitration process, they get the rest of that year's pay and that's it.

These contracts usually get signed before the player's first arbitration hearing and go one or two years into the player's free agency.

It's really a win-win. The player gets guaranteed money, and the club gets a cost-controlled star for an extra year or two.

Ehh...

I see your point - but I think win/win is stretching it.

You are protecting against the possibility of a career-threatening injury before arbitration eligibility - but often times, at the expense of half of your value over the terms of your deal.

Connotation-wise, I see it more as "hedging your bet" than "stability and financial planning."

David Wright made millions in endorsements last year - he's under contract by more companies than the NYM. As the terms of his deal with Vitamin Water, he requested a token portion of ownership, less than one percent. When Coca Cola initiated the major buy-out of Vitamin Water, that token ownership translated to $20M. Granted, Wright being young, market-able, and a favorite amongst the ladies makes him something of a unique situation, but in his case at least, financial stability was not really an issue any more.

ChrisLDuncan

11-26-2007, 12:20 PM

Easy and repeatable doesn't mean they won't cause problems.

Something to consider? yes, deal breaker? No

Yes. The Yankees hyped him up to be the 2nd coming of Roger Clemens. All you heard from the Yankees was "He reminds me of Roger Clemens".

Any pitcher that went through what Hughes went through does not have as good of a season, that's just common sense. He had injury problems and he wasn't as capable. I'd take those stats with a grain of salt. He pitched well as the season progressed. Again, if you want to raise health concerns, go ahead, however if you want to base a pitcher on a season where his hamstrings went through hell and back and his ankle was messed up...fine, but don't expect to garner support.

ChrisLDuncan

11-26-2007, 12:22 PM

Wang doesn't field the balls. He relies on good fielding.

Realistically aside from Cano the Yankees are not a good fielding team in the infield. So he doesn't even really have good fielding, he has at best average fielding all the way around.

They won't part with Reyes. He has too much talent to give up on. The Mets will have to use their best prospects to get him.

Aside from Reyes the package the Twins will want will be something like:

FMart
Pelfrey
Gomez
Milledge

They will ask this much since the only one who can really contribute on opening day is Milledge, but Pelfrey should be ready to contribute around June/July.

NYMets523

11-29-2007, 01:33 PM

Something to consider? yes, deal breaker? No
It's a deal breaker if they see it. You're not going to trade your best pitcher even for one who is likely to break down. Even if he's not the only pitcher in the deal.

Any pitcher that went through what Hughes went through does not have as good of a season, that's just common sense. He had injury problems and he wasn't as capable. I'd take those stats with a grain of salt. He pitched well as the season progressed. Again, if you want to raise health concerns, go ahead, however if you want to base a pitcher on a season where his hamstrings went through hell and back and his ankle was messed up...fine, but don't expect to garner support.
Whether or not I have support doesn't change whether I'm right or wrong.

Realistically aside from Cano the Yankees are not a good fielding team in the infield. So he doesn't even really have good fielding, he has at best average fielding all the way around.
Being on turf wouldn't help. He won't be part of the deal though since he'll be getting expensive soon.

Aside from Reyes the package the Twins will want will be something like:

FMart
Pelfrey
Gomez
Milledge

They will ask this much since the only one who can really contribute on opening day is Milledge, but Pelfrey should be ready to contribute around June/July.

Mets won't deal all 3 of their OF prospects in one deal. From what I'm reading, they have to include Reyes in the deal. If they don't, they're a distant third to the Yankees and Red Sox. Putting Reyes in the deal would put them first in line.

Zagi-CRO

12-04-2007, 02:05 AM

645

12-04-2007, 03:07 AM

The Twins are known to be high on Crisp.

If that doesn't sound like a drug reference, I don't know what does.

Maybe the can Smoke It? :hyper:

But they should get more for the last thing they want to do is make a mistake.

Kitty Kaat

12-04-2007, 05:31 AM

Late Monday night, according to a Red Sox source, the team handed over medical records for left-hand pitcher Jon Lester, the critical piece in a four-for-one trade that would bring Santana for Lester, Coco Crisp, minor-league right-hander Justin Masterson and another minor leaguer.

I think it's good offer for the Twins, really. They haven't team for the WS with Santana or without him.
Twins 1-2 rotation with Liriano and Lester and Silva - Baker - Garza -Slowey could be good.

As a Twins fan I really hate this trade and I think a lot of other fans would too. I don't see why Jacoby isn't a part of it or why they don't do the Yankees deal with Phillips, Cabrera and a minor leaguer deal.

Walt Zink

12-04-2007, 07:18 AM

Late Monday night, according to a Red Sox source, the team handed over medical records for left-hand pitcher Jon Lester, the critical piece in a four-for-one trade that would bring Santana for Lester, Coco Crisp, minor-league right-hander Justin Masterson and another minor leaguer.

I think it's good offer for the Twins, really. They haven't team for the WS with Santana or without him.
Twins 1-2 rotation with Liriano and Lester and Silva - Baker - Garza -Slowey could be good.

Only problem is they dealt Garza in the Delmon Young trade ;)

digglahhh

12-04-2007, 09:22 AM

Milt on Tilt

12-04-2007, 09:48 AM

I as a Twins fan am extremely disappointed with the lastest rumored offer. Lester-Crisp-Lowrie-Masterson. I would much rather have Hughes-Melky-prospect

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 11:12 AM

I as a Twins fan am extremely disappointed with the lastest rumored offer. Lester-Crisp-Lowrie-Masterson. I would much rather have Hughes-Melky-prospect
What I'm suspicious of is why are they asking for Hughes and then Kennedy to both be included in the deal from the Yanks, but don't ask for Lester and Buchholz from Boston? It seems like they're asking for more from the Yanks than from Boston.

Anyone agree or disagree on this?

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 11:15 AM

Would you guys trade on of your Marc Chagall originals for my daughter's fingerpainting?

Hey, there's no telling how famous she could be...

How can the best pitcher in baseball not command whatever PROSPECTS (read, guys not proven to be productive at the Major League level) his team wants.

Geez, everybody wants something for nothing...

I'd be ecstatic to trade Reyes for Santana - and you guys don't want to part with a couple of minor leaguers...

Full disclosure: I don't really have any kids... hold on, that's Maury Povich on the phone.
I definitely respect your viewpoint on this but the problem I have is that I'd love to keep Phil Hughes. The Yanks haven't had any starting pitchers that worked out since Andy Pettitte. Could be some mushy romanticism mixed in there, but I think that if a team has someone who becomes good, and even though Reyes has done far more than Hughes, I think that fans want to see how well the player does for them at the MLB level.

Ideally, we'd have Santana and Hughes in the same rotation to mix the young kids and a vet, but that offer w/o Hughes could easily be topped by another team.

digglahhh

12-04-2007, 11:57 AM

NYMets523

12-04-2007, 12:23 PM

I as a Twins fan am extremely disappointed with the lastest rumored offer. Lester-Crisp-Lowrie-Masterson. I would much rather have Hughes-Melky-prospect

How can the Twins take so little for Santana? I could understand more if it was an NL team but it's an AL team. And one that just one the World Series.

TonyStarks

12-04-2007, 01:17 PM

Charger567

12-04-2007, 05:29 PM

I am deeply disappointed that the Twins are willing to accept anything less than a Can't-Miss Pitching Prospect from the Red Sox.

They'd take Coco (Who's going to just eat up money); Lester (still a question mark health wise) and 2 Prospects. Bill needs to keep a steady hand and demand Buchholz if he's asking the Yankees for Hughes.

Coco will provide gold glove caliber defense. He may not be Melky, but he isn't as far off as people think. Melky really isn't good.. He will be a bit above average, imo.

I also don't think Lester is a health question, he seems healthy and has had no troubles since his return. He hasn't lost his stuff, and has more potential than IPK.

Those "two prospects" you mentioned aren't ordinary prospects. They are our #1 and #2 prospects at the moment, an average fielding short stop with a hell of a bat and another pitcher the Twins feel could be a potential #2 or SU man.

Honestly, I think our deal nearly matches the Yanks offer, but what puts us way over is that we fill their holes, while the Yanks just throw prospects at them where they aren't needed as much.

That, and Yankee prospects are over hyped. Whatever the Yankees do is over hyped. Since Cashman took over, every potential major leaguer who puts on a Yankee uniform is a blue chip prospect.

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 05:45 PM

Sure, Matt, I hear you. And I can respect the romanticism. But the way I see it is, you're given the opportunity to trade a huge pile of extremely fine quality wood for the nicest house in the neighborhood. Sure, you could build a gorgeous house, potentially even nicer than all the other houses. And, sure, it would be that much more special because you made it with your own hands. But, there's no telling what you will build (especially since you haven't proven yourself a great architect of do-it yourself projects in the recent past). Plus you just fired your foreman. Alrhight, the analogy is officially dead, but you get the point.

The likelihood of prospects becoming HOF level players in just rather low. That's a reality. You can be eager to roll the dice, just be aware that the house tends to win.
I definitely catch your drift, and yes, Joe Torre was the foreman/contractor or whatever you call the "lead dawg" out there.

I think that myself, like many other Yankee fans were salivating about what a rotation would look like with Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Hughes and Moose/Chamberlain. I don't know if it's pure greed, stubbornness, being spoiled or whatever, but that "Santana *OR* Hughes" thing didn't seem right. The idealistic "Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Hughes" thing was what got us going crazy.

Yes, you have to give up talent for talent. Looking at how Boston sent Hanley Ramirez to Florida for Beckett and Lowell, that would seem like an easy example, and they'd gotten 2 fine players from a cash-strapped team. On a side note, I wish the Yanks would've traded Dioner Novarro for those two, instead of trading him for Randy Johnson, since we could've used Beckett and traded Lowell for another pitcher.

Anyway, the Yanks would obviously be far better with Santana than without. However, how much better with the deal being proposed by Minnesota is what I openly wonder about. Here's the two Yankee teams (figuratively) being compared.

No Santana equals:

Wang (ace)
Pettitte
Hughes
Moose
Chamberlain/Kennedy

With Santana:

Santana (ace)
Wang
Pettitte
Moose
Chamberlain/Kennedy

Regardless of whether yourself, MetsFan523 are impressed (or very likely not) about Melky Cabrera, we'd still need to find someone else in CF if he were traded for to get Santana, and we could lose either Jose Tabata (likely) or Austin Jackson from the farm.

I don't know if you fans of other teams call this a "typical Yankee fan" for wanting much for very little being offered, but I just wanted to keep the nucleus of the team together. I'd dearly love getting Santana, but while money obviously isn't a big problem, the cost of players being dealt is very much an issue.

I'll still be debating which of the two teams above would be more favorable, but obviously the Santana-led team would have a clear advantage. I'll just keep hoping that Hughes would've been much better, especially after he'd done well in the ALDS vs Indians.

On another side note, I would be greatly disappointed if Mets GM Omar Minaya were to trade away Jose Reyes for Santana. The Mets, despite being in the same NY market that we have, and are definitely a very popular team here in NJ (reportedly far more popular than they are in CT), I doubt that they'd make a serious push for Santana. I doubt that Minnesota would consider a deal w/o Reyes on the table (which could easily leapfrog them ahead of the Yanks and Boston), and I would be disappointed if the Mets traded such a popular impact player.

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 05:54 PM

Coco will provide gold glove caliber defense. He may not be Melky, but he isn't as far off as people think. Melky really isn't good.. He will be a bit above average, imo.

I also don't think Lester is a health question, he seems healthy and has had no troubles since his return. He hasn't lost his stuff, and has more potential than IPK.

Those "two prospects" you mentioned aren't ordinary prospects. They are our #1 and #2 prospects at the moment, an average fielding short stop with a hell of a bat and another pitcher the Twins feel could be a potential #2 or SU man.

Honestly, I think our deal nearly matches the Yanks offer, but what puts us way over is that we fill their holes, while the Yanks just throw prospects at them where they aren't needed as much.

That, and Yankee prospects are over hyped. Whatever the Yankees do is over hyped. Since Cashman took over, every potential major leaguer who puts on a Yankee uniform is a blue chip prospect.
Presuming we could call Hughes + Lester to be a wash, as well as Melky and Coco, then we have both teams having an equal offer on the table so far. Both pitchers have good reputations and have also had injuries, both CFers have very good defense, but Melky's bat is a little better.

Since neither Buchholz nor Kennedy are being considered, then it's between your Masterson and our Jose Tabata. From what I've heard, Tabata and Austin Jackson are said to be ready around 2009-10 in the OF. I could deal with one of them being traded, but not both. If a 4th player were needed, then I don't think it should be a #2 prospect, but just a regular guy. I'm not saying Kei Igawa, but just a regular player.

In the meanwhile, all this so that a team could send $22-25m for 5 seasons of Johan Santana.

On a related note, how much do you anticipate Boston offering Santana (salary + years) if the trade were agreed to?

Charger567

12-04-2007, 05:55 PM

NYMets523

12-04-2007, 05:55 PM

I'd trade Reyes for Santana. I'd be disappointed (mostly since I bought a Reyes t-shirt and jersey) but I'd get over it seeing Santana in a Mets uniform.

Charger567

12-04-2007, 06:03 PM

Presuming we could call Hughes + Lester to be a wash, as well as Melky and Coco, then we have both teams having an equal offer on the table so far. Both pitchers have good reputations and have also had injuries, both CFers have very good defense, but Melky's bat is a little better.

Since neither Buchholz nor Kennedy are being considered, then it's between your Masterson and our Jose Tabata. From what I've heard, Tabata and Austin Jackson are said to be ready around 2009-10 in the OF. I could deal with one of them being traded, but not both. If a 4th player were needed, then I don't think it should be a #2 prospect, but just a regular guy. I'm not saying Kei Igawa, but just a regular player.

In the meanwhile, all this so that a team could send $22-25m for 5 seasons of Johan Santana.

On a related note, how much do you anticipate Boston offering Santana (salary + years) if the trade were agreed to?
Well I'd maybe put Hughes ahead of Lester, and Melky ahead of Crisp, but not by much.

Aren't you forgetting Lowrie, and possibly Kalish? (Which I am against, btw.)

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 06:08 PM

Are the Yanks still in the running even though the deadline has passed?

Hank Steinbrenner really emphasized how it wasn't a bluff, and it would really make him look like an idiot if we went back on it.
I think that he's serious. Unlike the A-Rod deal which nobody else could've afforded, the Red Sox are in the running for Santana.

Minnesota wanted Hughes *AND* Kennedy, which bothered me. If Boston gets him, we'll have stronger competition from them, but on either team, Santana's continued endurance remains an issue. For a guy with a relatively small body, he's pitched quite a few innings over the last 4 seasons.
I'd trade Reyes for Santana. I'd be disappointed (mostly since I bought a Reyes t-shirt and jersey) but I'd get over it seeing Santana in a Mets uniform.
With Lastings Milledge gone (whom I'd imagined would've been the lead player in a potential Santana trade), who would play SS next season if Reyes were gone?

When Minaya said he'd wanted (or would at least consider) A-Rod, I figured that Reyes' days would've been numbered if he'd wanted to return to SS, rather than having David Wright move to 2B. However, Minaya didn't seem to do more than just an initial conversation with Boras about A-Rod, from what I can remember.

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 06:16 PM

Well I'd maybe put Hughes ahead of Lester, and Melky ahead of Crisp, but not by much.

Aren't you forgetting Lowrie, and possibly Kalish? (Which I am against, btw.)
OK, fine. I hadn't checked out Lester as much, but I still had him ahead of Buchholz. Still, Lester had the cancer and Hughes had the hamstring injury, so both had physical issues.

How would you rate SS Jed Lowrie (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jed%20Lowrie&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476704) and LFer Ryan Kalish (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ryan%20Kalish&pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501888)? I think you'd mentioned above that Lowrie had a decent glove and a big bat. You think that the Twins would take those two over Masterson?

I'll again ask, how much do you think that Boston will offer Santana re salary and years if a trade deal were acceptable to them?

Charger567

12-04-2007, 06:30 PM

OK, fine. I hadn't checked out Lester as much, but I still had him ahead of Buchholz. Still, Lester had the cancer and Hughes had the hamstring injury, so both had physical issues.

How would you rate SS Jed Lowrie (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jed%20Lowrie&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476704) and LFer Ryan Kalish (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ryan%20Kalish&pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501888)? I think you'd mentioned above that Lowrie had a decent glove and a big bat. You think that the Twins would take those two over Masterson?

I'll again ask, how much do you think that Boston will offer Santana re salary and years if a trade deal were acceptable to them?

From what I've heard, Lowrie and Kalish were to be ADDED to the deal. That would be awful..

To answer your question though, yes, I would think they would prefer Lowrie and Kalish. Their outfield would be filled up with Crisp, but they could always use a new DH over Kubel. Lowrie would take second base or short stop assuming Brendan Harris takes third. This trade could honestly rebuild the Twins franchise. They would pack their holes in tight over the next 2-3 years, and may put them back in contention in no time.

Lowrie did put up a solid .300 BA with .506 SLG and a double every 10 at bats. He has decent speed, good athleticism and durability.

Kalish seems to be more valuable in the long run to me. He's got great speed, he's a great fielder with a gun, and hit .368 in Lowell this year. Seems to be a lead off type.

I do think Santana will get the 126/5 years he asked for. Especially with Manny relieving the payroll (assuming we don't resign him or he takes a pay cut,) and Schilling as well.

NYMets523

12-04-2007, 06:30 PM

With Lastings Milledge gone (whom I'd imagined would've been the lead player in a potential Santana trade), who would play SS next season if Reyes were gone?
Milledge wasn't going to be a big piece. I would have given another player and asked for Alexi Casilla.

When Minaya said he'd wanted (or would at least consider) A-Rod, I figured that Reyes' days would've been numbered if he'd wanted to return to SS, rather than having David Wright move to 2B. However, Minaya didn't seem to do more than just an initial conversation with Boras about A-Rod, from what I can remember.
Minaya never wanted A-Rod. Wilpons thought of it but Minaya shot it down.

Mattingly

12-04-2007, 09:24 PM

Milledge wasn't going to be a big piece. I would have given another player and asked for Alexi Casilla.
I'd presumed that Milledge would've been the centerpiece of any big Mets trade, since that's what some in the NY media talked about. With his being traded for a backup C and a RFer, I felt that the Mets weren't in the market for any big-name trades like what Florida and Motown just did with D-Train and Miggy Cabrera.
Minaya never wanted A-Rod. Wilpons thought of it but Minaya shot it down.
Seems like almost the reverse from the Steve Phillips thing from 7 winters ago. Back then, Fred Wilpon didn't want any part of a player in excess of $20m/yr, so SP had to complain about A-Rod's wanting a personal jet, a special office in the clubhouse and whatever other type of corporate-sounding perks that could be imagined. I'm surprised that Wilpon would actually consider having gotten him.

I guess that Minaya's smart, since that would've killed his ability to pay anyone else good money in the next 8-10 years. Same market as the Yanks, but a way different payroll.

plask_stirlac

12-05-2007, 02:43 PM

I definitely respect your viewpoint on this but the problem I have is that I'd love to keep Phil Hughes. The Yanks haven't had any starting pitchers that worked out since Andy Pettitte. Could be some mushy romanticism mixed in there, but I think that if a team has someone who becomes good, and even though Reyes has done far more than Hughes, I think that fans want to see how well the player does for them at the MLB level.

Ideally, we'd have Santana and Hughes in the same rotation to mix the young kids and a vet, but that offer w/o Hughes could easily be topped by another team.

Isn't there some Chamberlain guy? Wang?

Mattingly

12-09-2007, 08:29 AM

No news updates, just a Bill Gallo toon that I'd forgotten to post from Thursday's paper, with compliments to Yogi:

http://www.nydailynews.com/img/2007/12/07/gallo07.gif

NYMets523

12-09-2007, 01:33 PM

I'd presumed that Milledge would've been the centerpiece of any big Mets trade, since that's what some in the NY media talked about. With his being traded for a backup C and a RFer, I felt that the Mets weren't in the market for any big-name trades like what Florida and Motown just did with D-Train and Miggy Cabrera.

Before Milledge was traded, Minaya asked every GM he was talking to about acquiring a top-flight pitcher. All of them said trading Milledge would not have impacted any potential deal with the Mets.

Mattingly

12-09-2007, 04:11 PM

Before Milledge was traded, Minaya asked every GM he was talking to about acquiring a top-flight pitcher. All of them said trading Milledge would not have impacted any potential deal with the Mets.
Then I must've been wrong. He seemed to have about the trade value of Melky Cabrera from last winter or the one before, in not having played much but being some outfielder that could've been desirable.

I don't know if Minaya will just go and trade Reyes away, but that always remains a possibility. I have no idea who would play SS for them though.

NYMets523

12-09-2007, 04:34 PM

Minaya has said Reyes won't be traded. He talked to the Twins and gave them names of players he'd be willing to trade (Reyes was not on it). The Twins had no problems with anyone on the list.

Mattingly

12-09-2007, 05:00 PM

Who were the names on the list that Minaya gave them?

You think that Fred Wilpon will pay $125m over 5 seasons (2009-13) after $13.2m in 2008?

metfan13

12-09-2007, 05:09 PM

Who were the names on the list that Minaya gave them?

You think that Fred Wilpon will pay $125m over 5 seasons (2009-13) after $13.2m in 2008?

Sure. Pedro's and Delgado's salaries will be coming off the payroll and Glavine's came off this year.

NYMets523

12-09-2007, 05:13 PM

Who were the names on the list that Minaya gave them?

You think that Fred Wilpon will pay $125m over 5 seasons (2009-13) after $13.2m in 2008?

The list hasn't been released. The usual suspsects are Humber, Pelfrey, Gomez, Mulvey, Heilman, and possibly Fernando Martinez. Oliver Perez is likely on the list as well.

I hope he's willing to. They have a rare oppurtunity to get the best pitcher in baseball at only 29 years old. They'd be stupid to pass it up because of money.

Mattingly

12-09-2007, 05:15 PM

The list hasn't been released. The usual suspsects are Humber, Pelfrey, Gomez, Mulvey, Heilman, and possibly Fernando Martinez. Oliver Perez is likely on the list as well.
Thanks. You think that Omar Minaya would push the button on this deal?

I've told a few friends that it may be best that the Mets get him, since I don't want to trade our young guys like Hughes & Chamberlain, without whom, there'd very likely be no deal, and I don't want Boston getting him either.

NYMets523

12-09-2007, 05:19 PM

Thanks. You think that Omar Minaya would push the button on this deal?

I've told a few friends that it may be best that the Mets get him, since I don't want to trade our young guys like Hughes & Chamberlain, without whom, there'd very likely be no deal, and I don't want Boston getting him either.[/QUOTE]

I think Minaya will do as much as he can. Santana seems like his best available option. A lot of prospect-rich teams are getting involved in possible deals for Bedard or Haren. The Mets also have a little going for them in that the Twins would prefer to send Santana to the Mets rather than the Yankees or Red Sox because it gets him out of the league.

Mattingly

12-09-2007, 05:46 PM

I think Minaya will do as much as he can. Santana seems like his best available option. A lot of prospect-rich teams are getting involved in possible deals for Bedard or Haren. The Mets also have a little going for them in that the Twins would prefer to send Santana to the Mets rather than the Yankees or Red Sox because it gets him out of the league.
I keep hearing that Billy Beane isn't a good trade partner, and that the O's aren't good either. In the CE thread re Bedard, he'd wanted Roy Oswalt for Tejada to start off. How do you start off with Oswalt, *THEN* ask for others for Tejada? A few years ago, Oswalt-Tejada straight up after Tejada had 150 RBI, I could've seen, but now? Nope.

Bedard is very good, every team needs a lefty starter (unsure how much the Mets need one), but I think I'd try Bedard if I were you. Not only does O's owner Angelos think little of his fans (as J W, the O's Mod attested in the Bedard there here under CE), but he detests Big Stein, and I don't think he'd be interested in dealing with his son Hank, especially trading his ace to a division rival. The Yanks would sooner trade Phil Hughes to the Mets before that deal would happen, even though I'd welcome Bedard.

Sine the Mets are out of the division, I'd say that Bedard would be a likelier candidate for the Mets: out of the AL, and he's not that unreliable. He's never had 30 starts more than once, has never pitched 200 innings, but he's been close. He averaged 6.5 innings in 2007. Angelos would very likely offer a much lesser package from the Mets than from the Yanks.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bedarer01.shtml

NYMets523

12-09-2007, 05:52 PM

I keep hearing that Billy Beane isn't a good trade partner, and that the O's aren't good either. In the CE thread re Bedard, he'd wanted Roy Oswalt for Tejada to start off. How do you start off with Oswalt, *THEN* ask for others for Tejada? A few years ago, Oswalt-Tejada straight up after Tejada had 150 RBI, I could've seen, but now? Nope.
Beane tries to fleece teams in trades. Minaya has said he prefers not trading with him. Which is likely the case with many GMs. I remember at the deadline in 2006, the Mets, Astros, and Orioles were in a potential 3-way deal. Mets would have gotten Oswalt, Astros Tejada, Baltimore Milledge, Heilman and I think some other players. No surprise Baltimore ended up backing out.

Bedard is very good, every team needs a lefty starter (unsure how much the Mets need one), but I think I'd try Bedard if I were you. Not only does O's owner Angelos think little of his fans (as J W, the O's Mod attested in the Bedard there here under CE), but he detests Big Stein, and I don't think he'd be interested in dealing with his son Hank, especially trading his ace to a division rival. The Yanks would sooner trade Phil Hughes to the Mets before that deal would happen, even though I'd welcome Bedard.

Since the Mets are out of the division, I'd say that Bedard would be a likelier candidate for the Mets: out of the AL, and he's not that unreliable. He's never had 30 starts more than once, has never pitched 200 innings, but he's been close. He averaged 6.5 innings in 2007. Angelos would very likely offer a much lesser package from the Mets than from the Yanks.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bedarer01.shtml

The problem is the Reds and Dodgers are believed to be interested in Bedard. They both have much stronger farm systems than the Mets. Santana seems to be the Mets best bet since they're probably the only NL team willing to give him a $150M contract. Dodgers could but they always come off as cheap and overpay for contracts (Schmidt, Pierre, now Andruw Jones).