Jimmy Rollins

[willshad]

Does anyone know if he broke the record for outs made in a season this past year? That would be funny if he could do that and still win MVP.

Also, why didnt David Wright get the MVP over him? was it only because the Phillies edged out the mets for first place? Wright had a gold glove, a 30-30 season, hit .325, with a 150 OPS+ (32 points higher than Rollins). So Rollins had 20 triples..big deal.

[brett]

This is being discussed in the current events forum in depth. I'm not saying it isn't history but you can find a lot of info there.

Using WARP scores, Rollins comes out at +9.2 and Wright at +10.6 which is pretty close-close enough that I wouldn't call Rollins a poor choice. I think that stats can tell about 75-80% of the story on a player at this time and if our defensive stats improve and we include unaccounted-for baserunning data then we approach 90%.

We can predict a players relative run value to about 5% with all of that data and we can predict team wins from team runs scored and allowed to within about 5%.

So the question is, how does Rollins get that close to Wright?

BBPro's rating for WARP rates an average SS about 11 runs above an average third baseman based on the value of his position compared to a replacement. Based on looking at other positional adjustments, this is a pretty low end estimate because while a raw replacement SS may lose 11 runs in the field, he also may hit .207. So the 11 runs is at least fair to Wright. 11 runs is about equivalent to 13 OPS+ points in Philadelphia's run environment.

So if you start with Rollins 118 OPS+, then give him 11 for position he would be worth about 129. (again some ratings would give the SS around 20 points on a third baseman, but I think this is too much).

Rollins also stole 41 bases in 47 attempts. That would be typically evaluated as being worth a net of about 6.5 more runs. Wright also went 34-5 which would give him about 5 more runs. So keeping Wright constant, Rollins gains another 1.5 runs or about 2 OPS+ points to 131.

Rollins was 8 runs above average by position and Wright was +5. You can dispute the validity, but they basically put Rollins as a "good" SS and Wright as a little above average. That would give Rollins another 3 OPS+ points equivalent or 134.

Rollins may have picked up some in baserunning as far as situations like going from first to third, or second to home on singles, or scoring on sacrifice flies. Wright probably was pretty good in those situations as well, so even if Rollins was "tremendous" and Wright wad "good" then Rollins only would have picked up a max of about 5 runs that way above Wright, or another 6-7 OPS+ points equavelent to 140 or 141.

So they are close when those factors are considered.

Both teams won 2 more games than would be predicted based on runs scored and runs allowed so if we can predict a player's run contribution, we can also predict that their "win" contribution would be in line.

There is a slight statistical degree to which, when two players netting the same runs for their teams, the player who contributes runs on the defensive end will be worth a little more than the player who contributes more from the offensive end. If I score 100 and give up 50 I will win more than if I score 150 and give up 100.

This would be no more than a 1% advantage for Rollins in this case.

He played 2 more games.

So in the end, I think Rollins is at least within about 15% of Wright in WARP I, probably within 10% in total value, and I think that while I may disagree, they are close enough that it is not wrong to choose one over the other.

By the way, Pujols lead in WARP and Vorp scores with defense included, though that is a little confusing because I think that a below average SS like Ramirez should get as much credit for that as a great first baseman. Most defensive rankings today would say that a top, top fielding first base season is comparable to an average SS season, but if Mark Grace or Keith Hernandez had been average level shortstops they would sure hall of famers in my book. Maybe I under-rate great fielding first basemen though.

[baseballPAP]

Nice points all around.

And if you ever want to get a handle on how good Hernandez or JT Snow or one of the other awesome 1Bmen are, don't forget to consider probably their least heralded accomplishments....they save more errors for their IF, and on plays that record as simply 5-3 or 6-3. Hernandez over say...Dave Kingman? I'd wager that when the Mets got Hernandez in '83, that their infield threw a party...Kingman was notoriously bad at digging balls out of the dirt, and played like he was anchored to the bag...he wouldn't come off to try and catch an errant throw. If I had time I'd check to see how many of those IF errors were before Hernandez vs. after.