Rollins wins NL MVP

[Zito75]

This just in- Jimmy Rollins has won the NL MVP. There's no doubt he had a great season, but I was surprised to see Matt Holliday not winning it. Congrats to both for having stellar years!

[OleMissCub]

Oh c'mon....anyone else notice ESPN homering for Rollins the last week of the season?

Matt Holliday and David Wright both had better seasons.

[stejay]

Rollins deserved it......just over Holliday

[Westlake]

Yuck. Dont like this one at all.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Oh c'mon....anyone else notice ESPN homering for Rollins the last week of the season?

Matt Holliday and David Wright both had better seasons.

They covered Holliday pretty well, and have never been short of giving Wright any love. Yes, Rollins got plenty of hype, but the other two hardly suffered from lack of press.

[philipthegreat]

A pretty bad selection.

[NYMets523]

Congratulations to Jimmy Rollins. He's gotten away with robbery 3 times and now holds the title "Most Overrated Player in Baseball"

[digglahhh]

A pretty bad selection.

That's putting it mildly.

Third best player on his own team!

I'd vote for at least Wright, Holliday, H. Ramirez, Utley Fielder and Miguel Cabrera over him.

You could even argue guys like Braun, Martin, Byrnes, Chipper.

[OleMissCub]

Not that it's the end all be all of stats, but Rollins' 118 OPS+ is the lowest of any MVP in either league since Zoilo Versalles in 1965.

Hell, he was 5th on his own team in that category!!

Top Ten NL Leaders in VORP:

1. Hanley Ramirez 89.5
2. David Wright 81.1
3. Chipper Jones 76.0
4. Matt Holliday 75.0
5. Albert Pujols 72.1
6. Miguel Cabrera 71.4
7. Prince Fielder 69.1
8. Chase Utley 68.8
9. Jimmy Rollins 66.1
10. Ryan Braun 57.2

[truman]

His .344 OBP is the lowest of any MVP since Andre Dawson in 1987.

[skyking162]

That's putting it mildly.

Third best player on his own team!

I'd vote for at least Wright, Holliday, H. Ramirez, Utley Fielder and Miguel Cabrera over him.

You could even argue guys like Braun, Martin, Byrnes, Chipper.

Braun, Martin, Byrnes -- no way, if you define value purely as performance. Braun's offense was only over 400 PAs and his fielding was awful (notice Tulo got more MVP votes, interestingly enough.)

Wright, Pujols, Chipper, and Utley were the class of the NL. All had exceptional seasons with the bat and all were assets in the field, even Pujols at a less difficult position.

Where the hell is Bonds? Not a single vote? Soriano got a third place vote and Jose Valverde was above Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes, and Brandon Webb? No way. Carlos Beltran with only two 8th place votes? That's criminal. And Ryan Howard fifth? Um, no.

[brett]

Not that it's the end all be all of stats, but Rollins' 118 OPS+ is the lowest of any MVP in either league since Zoilo Versalles in 1965.

Hell, he was 5th on his own team in that category!!

Top Ten NL Leaders in VORP:

1. Hanley Ramirez 89.5
2. David Wright 81.1
3. Chipper Jones 76.0
4. Matt Holliday 75.0
5. Albert Pujols 72.1
6. Miguel Cabrera 71.4
7. Prince Fielder 69.1
8. Chase Utley 68.8
9. Jimmy Rollins 66.1
10. Ryan Braun 57.2

Yea but remembet Rollins is the best fielder in the history of baseball!!!!! He won a freaking gold glove this year!!!!!!!! His gold glove* probably gives him the edge?

Ramirez was the best player, and I gave it to Wright because his team was playing more important games late in the season (and losing). Still, Ramirez was playing for stats to a degree.

I guess Wright lost out based on the Mets collapse.

I'd still pick him because I don't really care if a guy's team wins the division, I just care to a degree that his stats were put up in games that meant something.

[Erik Bedard]

This selection disgusts me. Let me see if I can put myself in the mind of a BBWAA voter and try and rationalize voting for Rollins over anybody else:

Let's see... who was good this year in the NL? Ryan Howard won it last year, but he struck out too much this year to be any good. David Wright was good, but his team collapsed at the end of the year, so he wasn't very valuable then, and I'm not going to vote for someone who doesn't come through in the clutch, unless they're the clear-cut obvious choice. Albert Pujols wasn't as good as he's been over the last few years. Chase Utley was injured too much. So was Chipper Jones, plus he's way past his prime. Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera played on a bad team, so they couldn't have been very valuable. Matt Holliday hit for a high average, but he plays in Coors Field, so his stats are obviously faked. Who does that leave? I know, Jimmy Rollins. He's the shortstop on a playoff team, so there's certainly some precedent there, ESPN likes him, he won a Gold Glove AND a Silver Slugger, and he wasn't injured. That's it, I'll vote for Rollins!

That took some really skewed logic.

[vale]

Top Ten NL Leaders in VORP:

1. Hanley Ramirez 89.5
2. David Wright 81.1
3. Chipper Jones 76.0
4. Matt Holliday 75.0
5. Albert Pujols 72.1
6. Miguel Cabrera 71.4
7. Prince Fielder 69.1
8. Chase Utley 68.8
9. Jimmy Rollins 66.1
10. Ryan Braun 57.2

VORP doesn't take fielding into account at all so it is overrating people like Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun in that list. I think David Wright earned the MVP, Matt Holliday is the choice if you absolutely had to have someone from one of the playoff teams. Rollins is an atrocious pick just as Braun was an atrocious pick for RoY.

[placount]

he did steal a bunch of bases, hit a bunch of triples, and is a very vocal and visible player. not really good reasons, but i can see how a voter might pick him. id have chosen holliday or pujols, even fielder over rollins or wright

[holyroman]

I like the selection for a guy that does it all well.

[vale]

I like the selection for a guy that does it all well.

Like get on base at a high rate? Oh wait.

[Senor Octobre]

Congratulations to Jimmy Rollins. He's gotten away with robbery 3 times and now holds the title "Most Overrated Player in Baseball"

My sentiments exactly. Just an awful choice all around :ughh

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Yea but remembet Rollins is the best fielder in the history of baseball!!!!! He won a freaking gold glove this year!!!!!!!! His gold glove* probably gives him the edge?

Ramirez was the best player, and I gave it to Wright because his team was playing more important games late in the season (and losing). Still, Ramirez was playing for stats to a degree.

I guess Wright lost out based on the Mets collapse.

I'd still pick him because I don't really care if a guy's team wins the division, I just care to a degree that his stats were put up in games that meant something.

That sucks! In September, Wright hit .352/.432/.602, 6 HR, 9 doubles, 21 runs, 20 RBI.

[fenrir]

i would of given it to either pujols or wright.

[digglahhh]

Braun, Martin, Byrnes -- no way, if you define value purely as performance. Braun's offense was only over 400 PAs and his fielding was awful (notice Tulo got more MVP votes, interestingly enough.)

Wright, Pujols, Chipper, and Utley were the class of the NL. All had exceptional seasons with the bat and all were assets in the field, even Pujols at a less difficult position.

Where the hell is Bonds? Not a single vote? Soriano got a third place vote and Jose Valverde was above Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes, and Brandon Webb? No way. Carlos Beltran with only two 8th place votes? That's criminal. And Ryan Howard fifth? Um, no.

Whatever, I was going off the top of my head. Braun and Byrnes don't really have cases. I actually thought about Tulo - just wondering if the defensive difference could close the offensive gap enough.

I'm not really backing off of Martin though. A GG catcher who hit clean up for his team, and posted a similar OPS to Rollins. I'm not saying he was a good choice, just as good of a choice as Rollins.

Chipper would have been in group 1 if he played enough. Bonds missed too much time to get consideration too.

Pujols can go on the list too, I simply forgot to add him. One could argue Beltran too, but watching him day in and day out, I probably wouldn't.

[hellborn]

VORP doesn't take fielding into account at all so it is overrating people like Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Braun in that list. I think David Wright earned the MVP, Matt Holliday is the choice if you absolutely had to have someone from one of the playoff teams. Rollins is an atrocious pick just as Braun was an atrocious pick for RoY.

Even if Hanley isn't as good at SS at Wright is at 3B (which is debatable), he gets more credit for fielding in my book because he CAN play SS. I don't think many people would be real thrilled with Wright at SS, and I'd bet that Hanley could do OK at 3B.
At least the NL picks this year are generating a lot of discussion! I wouldn't have picked Rollins, but writers are going look a lot more at buzz, flash, and big hits in key late season games than sophisticated stat analysis. Wright and Fielder were surely tarnished by the way their teams performed late in the year, and Rollins was the guy who gathered the most attention on the miracle Phils while having a much broader range of skills than Holliday (not that it makes him automatically more valuable).

[Chi]

I really can't understand Rollins. My pick was either Ramirez, Wright, or Holliday - and I can see why any one of them might be overlooked... but overlooked for ROLLINS?

Most overrated player in baseball indeed. He wasn't a good pick for any of his awards. This is slightly less blatant than the Gold Glove, but still...

[plask_stirlac]

I think some of you are making a case for the best player winning the actual MVP. It's not that kind of award, now. We need a credible one for that but this is a reward for good health and having a good team as well as producing. MVPs are usually super-healthy other than Barry and Rollins had the most PA ever. He had nice round numbers, 20/20/20/20, 30/30, and 94 RBI. Imagine if he had 100. This makes things simple for the voters even if a bit misleading.

Shortstops get a lot of votes. Tejada in 02. A-Rod in 03. When Guerrero had a year like Holliday and won the MVP, Michael Young was 8th in votes. Jeter was second last year.

So we have a shortstop with power, R and RBI, 162 games with offensive turnover help the most PA ever, and great speed. Also, good defense. Playoff team and late surge. Prediction backed up to boot. Great attitude and apparently leadership.

Now if you think that shouldn't decide the MVP (by a little) then that's widely believed by us here, but it would be a paradigm shift.

Do the voters even watch ESPN and let it influence them? Seriously, I bet they have MLB League Pass, read the AP reports and boxes, and don't watch ESPN much.

[Francoeurstein]

I haven't seen Holliday get any defense. He had a magnificent season and he led his team from rags to riches!

[nerfan]

Uh oh.

Let's look at Nerfan's Five Ways to the MVP...

1) Was this player the best player on his own team?

No.

2) Was this player the best player at his position in the league?

Nope.

3) Was this player amazing at fielding?

Good but not great.

4) Did he "lead" his team to the playoffs?

Nope.

5) Was he the most overrated player in the entire league?

You bet.

I would have given the award to Cabrera, Ramirez, Wright, Pujols, Peavy, Holliday, Fielder, C. Jones, Webb, Utley, Howard, or Helton over this sorry little braggart.

[Old Sweater]

Helton not winning the GG, about says it all for the Rockies. Rollins predicts his team winning the NL East, the Mets collaspe, and Rollins wins the MVP. If the Mets won the NL East, Wright would have probably won the MVP edging out Holliday.

[brett]

Rollins would have had a little better case for ROY (had he been a rookie).

WARP I
Rollins: 9.2
Tulowitzki: 8.5


Anyway, 9.2 WARP is pretty good.
Pujols: 11.3 (people totally overlooked that he may have had the best defensive season ever by a first baseman).
David Wright: 10.6
Holliday: 9.7

If people want Holliday over Rollins, well, Pujols may have been that much better.

It's not like '89 when Dawson had a 4.6 WARP I and the pack was more than double that:

Raines: 9.7
Gwynn: 11.4
Eric Davis: 11.4
Schmidt: 10.3
Ozzie Smith: 10.3
Jack Clark: 7.4
Will Clark: 7.5
Murphy: 11.1
Strawberry: 8.9

[brett]

Helton not winning the GG, about says it all for the Rockies.

Well, Helton not beating Lee for sure, and Helton not winning any of the last 3. Pujols did have a claim in my view, but Helton should have at least 5.

[brett]

Uh oh.

Let's look at Nerfan's Five Ways to the MVP...

1) Was this player the best player on his own team?

No.

2) Was this player the best player at his position in the league?

Nope.

3) Was this player amazing at fielding?

Good but not great.

4) Did he "lead" his team to the playoffs?

Nope.

5) Was he the most overrated player in the entire league?

You bet.

I would have given the award to Cabrera, Ramirez, Wright, Pujols, Peavy, Holliday, Fielder, C. Jones, Webb, Utley, Howard, or Helton over this sorry little braggart.

Point 1: Utley edged him in WARP I 9.3 to 9.2. I do think that one could argue he was virtually tied as the best on his team.

Point 2: He lead shortstops in WARP I

Point 3: Ditto-he was the best fielder among those in the running so his fielding (quality shortstop) was amazing relative to the field.

Point 4: He was the best player on the team during the period where they started gaining ground on the Mets to the end of the season.

[philkid3]

Helton not winning the GG, about says it all for the Rockies.

It's not like Helton should have won the GG. That belonged to Pujols.

[philkid3]

Ridiculous voting, but I expected it. He's now won a Gold Glove without being the best fielder in his division, a Silver Slugger without being the best hitter in his division, and an MVP without necessarily being the most valuable player on his own team.

Officially overrated.

[skyking162]

Even if Hanley isn't as good at SS at Wright is at 3B (which is debatable), he gets more credit for fielding in my book because he CAN play SS. I don't think many people would be real thrilled with Wright at SS, and I'd bet that Hanley could do OK at 3B.

According to some of the advanced fielding numbers, Hanley's at least 20 runs below average at shortstop while Wright is about 15 runs above average at third. The difference in position is about five runs, putting Wright's defensive advantage over Hanley at about 30 runs.

There's definitely some motivation for the BBWAA to vote who makes the best story, as that's their profession. Not that there's any wide-scale conspiracy, but I'm sure I'd pay more attention to players that I write about more often. How often does a non-Florida writer have a good story to write about Miguel Cabrera, unless he's on the trade table?

[rockin500]

eh, i can live with him being the MVP. i would have personally voted for Holliday, but I have no complaints with Rollins getting it.

[The Splendid Splinter]

Pujols: 11.3 (people totally overlooked that he may have had the best defensive season ever by a first baseman).

You need to look at Mark Grace in the early 90s... Or even Helton throughout his career...


Grace: '90-'93

Helton: '98, '00-'01, '03 (may had too many errors here, but he was ALL OVER the place that year), '04-'05

you want more?

Keith Hernandez: '79, '81 (considering the per page rates and projecting it a full season), '82, '84-'86

there are a lot more...

[brett]

You need to look at Mark Grace in the early 90s... Or even Helton throughout his career...


Grace: '90-'93

Helton: '98, '00-'01, '03 (may had too many errors here, but he was ALL OVER the place that year), '04-'05

you want more?

Keith Hernandez: '79, '81 (considering the per page rates and projecting it a full season), '82, '84-'86

there are a lot more...

Well we can debate the legitimacy of the stats, but Pujols would not have been a bad choice for Gold Glove.

22 Fielding runs save above an average first baseman by Baseball Prospectus.

Helton also has several all time great years:

'98: +19
'00: +19
'01: +15
'03: +23
'04: +24
'05: +16

Keith Hernandez had 3 years at +20 and 11 at +10
Grace has 2 +20 and 10 +10

[vale]

He gets more credit for fielding in my book because he CAN play SS.

VORP already gives him that credit, so no need to give it to him twice.

Look at the WARP stats that do take into account fielding and position played as well as offensive numbers. By that measure Wright was well above Ramirez.

[Solrac]

Rollins The Robber Strikes Once Again...Officially Most Overrated Player Ever!!!

[Neilios]

Rollins has had a busy offseason, sticking it to Tulowitzki, Ramirez, and now Matt Holliday. All 3 awards ridiculously undeserved.

Tulo with more MVP votes than Braun, but less ROY?

Kudos to Carlos Marmol for grabbing a 10th place vote!

[The Splendid Splinter]

Pujols would not have been a bad choice for Gold Glove.

I totally agree with you. Either Pujols or Helton should've won it. Nobody was really even close to those 2 this year IMO.

[nerfan]

Point 1: Utley edged him in WARP I 9.3 to 9.2. I do think that one could argue he was virtually tied as the best on his team.

Point 2: He lead shortstops in WARP I

Point 3: Ditto-he was the best fielder among those in the running so his fielding (quality shortstop) was amazing relative to the field.

Point 4: He was the best player on the team during the period where they started gaining ground on the Mets to the end of the season.

Point 1: So he is the second best player on his team by a small margin.

Point 2: What about Hanley Ramirez?

Point 3: Exactly. Good but not ALL TIME OZZIE SMITH GREAT.

Point 4: Actually Rollins was tied with Utley and Rowand and a tad worse than Howard in September.

Point 5: He was a leader, but his stats aren't good enough to justify a first place finish in MVP voting.

[-Kyle-]

I would have definitly picked Hanley, I know its not the definition of mvp, but if you isolate the team, name and all that jazz...I think Hanley is pretty cleanly ahead of Rollins.

[nerfan]

Rollins has had a busy offseason, sticking it to Tulowitzki, Ramirez, and now Matt Holliday. All 3 awards ridiculously undeserved.

Tulo with more MVP votes than Braun, but less ROY?

Kudos to Carlos Marmol for grabbing a 10th place vote!

Gotta love that Marmol voter. Although he was one of the best set-up men in the NL.

Also in the totally absurd category:

Tulowitzki garners a 3rd place vote in MVP race
David Wright left off two ballots
Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez automatically discounted for playing on a bad team
Byrnes of Arizona: Ninth Place MVP Hero
Reyes of New York: The Dancing Maniac strikes again
Rollins wins MVP!

[nerfan]

I would have definitly picked Hanley, I know its not the definition of mvp, but if you isolate the team, name and all that jazz...I think Hanley is pretty cleanly ahead of Rollins.

Yep. Too true.

[brett]

Yep. Too true.

Hanley may be the statistical player of the year, but he was playing for nothing except stats since May.

[brett]

Point 1: So he is the second best player on his team by a small margin.

Point 2: What about Hanley Ramirez?

Point 3: Exactly. Good but not ALL TIME OZZIE SMITH GREAT.

Point 4: Actually Rollins was tied with Utley and Rowand and a tad worse than Howard in September.

Point 5: He was a leader, but his stats aren't good enough to justify a first place finish in MVP voting.

1: a statistically significant margin (0.1 WARP) ?
2: his Warp score is higher than Hanley (due to defensive differences)
3: a solidly above average SS may be worth as many WARP as a gold glove centerfielder. Were Mays or Dimaggio good enough?

[DoubleX]

Terrible choice, IMO. I'm puzzled how the writers could give the award to Rollins this year, instead of a slugging player at an offensive position, and not have done the same last year with Jeter or Mauer instead of Justin Morneau in the AL. It's the same situation, only this time, the slugging player at the offensive position (Holliday) had the better argument (unlike Morneau), as did David Wright. I'm thinking the writers were impressed by Rollins 30 homeruns, while overlooking the bandbox he plays in, his mediocre OBP, and his overrated defense. Giving the award to Rollins this year after and not Jeter or Mauer last year, who both had better years than Rollins and worst competition than Rollins, really undermines the writers legitimacy, IMO.

[nerfan]

1: a statistically significant margin (0.1 WARP) ?
2: his Warp score is higher than Hanley (due to defensive differences)
3: a solidly above average SS may be worth as many WARP as a gold glove centerfielder. Were Mays or Dimaggio good enough?

I'll agree with you on Number 1. Rollins was about equal to Utley. But I just don't see any way that Rollins is so much better than Hanley with the glove that it makes up for his problem with the stick. WARP is a little heavily biased towards fielding. (but I don't like WARP anyway, because the formula is not available to the public eye). Point 3: see Point 2.

SS is quickly becoming an okay hitting position. It is not the defensive-oriented position that it used to be in the past... but then again, there is Dick McAuliffe, right?

[brett]

In fact, with extra baserunning (going from first to third etc) a top baserunner can pick up around 5-6 extra runs that never show up in WARP or any other score. Rollins certainly was a plus baserunner in that regard if 20 triples and his steals are any indication.

Suprisingly, Holliday also has ranked very high in that regard.

Rollins was not my pick but he was with 80% of the WARP of the top, and 90% likely with his extra baserunning and may have matched averyone but Pujols when baserunning is accounted for. Considering that his team was playing important games right up to the end, that is historically a pretty decent choice.

The gold glove and silver slugger was absolutely wrong though.

[AstrosFan]

I keep hearing about all these intangibles Rollins provided. Statistically, he's not the best player, but he provided tremendous leadership and other intangibles that led the Phillies to that tremendous comeback. Did anyone notice anything amazing about Rollins that is not tracked in the stats, or is this another media creation that the public likes to regurgitate to make them sound like baseball insiders?

[OleMissCub]

or is this another media creation that the public likes to regurgitate to make them sound like baseball insiders?

I don't know what the deal is, but ESPN homered for Rollins like it was going out of style the last week of the season. The guys on BBTN couldn't stop fawning over him. I know I'm not the only one who noticed this.

[Zagi-CRO]

Rollins - the NL MVP???

I dont know why??

My list:
1.Matt Holliday
2.Prince Fielder
3.Ryan Howard
4.Miguel Cabrera
5.David Wright
6.Carlos Lee
7.Chipper Jones
8.Albert Pujols
9.Jimmy Rollins
10.Ryan Braun

[brett]

According to some of the advanced fielding numbers, Hanley's at least 20 runs below average at shortstop while Wright is about 15 runs above average at third. The difference in position is about five runs, putting Wright's defensive advantage over Hanley at about 30 runs.


The difference between positions is really a statistical unknown, but baseball reference uses 11 runs between third and SS. Extreme estimates use around 20 runs. I tend to think they are about 2x to high, so I think that baseball prospectus is pretty accurate here.

Still, with defense included, Wright tops Hanley. If you consider all around baserunning he probably still beats him.

[digglahhh]

Utley did edge Rollins slightly in WARP, IN 132 GAMES!

Utley was on his way to running away with this award before his injury.

How about this out of context, but novel, stat - Rollins made three fewer outs than Utley had ABs.

[brett]

I keep hearing about all these intangibles Rollins provided. Statistically, he's not the best player, but he provided tremendous leadership and other intangibles that led the Phillies to that tremendous comeback. Did anyone notice anything amazing about Rollins that is not tracked in the stats, or is this another media creation that the public likes to regurgitate to make them sound like baseball insiders?


Well, he always seemed to be an optimist but I don't know how many WARP that is worth.

I think a guy with 20 triples probably picked up a LOT of unaccounted for bases. Perhaps 20 or more.

[skyking162]

I think a guy with 20 triples probably picked up a LOT of unaccounted for bases. Perhaps 20 or more.

Do you mean with baserunning? Dan Fox usually has an article at BPro with baserunning values after each season. The very top guys are 5-7 runs above average, but I have no idea where Rollins usually falls. Definitely something that should be included in the discussion if we have the data.

[Westlake]

Hanley may be the statistical player of the year, but he was playing for nothing except stats since May.

Um, no, he was trying to help his team win.

[philkid3]

Rollins - the NL MVP???

I dont know why??

My list:
1.Matt Holliday
2.Prince Fielder
3.Ryan Howard
4.Miguel Cabrera
5.David Wright
6.Carlos Lee
7.Chipper Jones
8.Albert Pujols
9.Jimmy Rollins
10.Ryan Braun

No Ramirez and Pujols eighth?

[brett]

Um, no, he was trying to help his team win.


I don't mean he was trying to garner stats, but that a win by the Marlins in August was less meaningful and valuable in the grand scheme of things than a win by the Phillies or Mets.

I just believe that not all wins are created equal, just as I don't believe that all runs are created equal just as not all bases are equal.

I do think that a manager might let him swing away instead of hit and run, or sacrifice, or even leave him in the game instead of using a defensive replacement and possibly getting him a few more times at the plate because as a manager, I think that when the season is lost, the focus has to shift to to player development to a degree.

[Rags2Riches]

let me ask this.....

1) what if JRoll wouldn't have at the beginning of the season made the prediction that the Phillies were the team to beat in the East? (then went out and had a good season playing every game like he did)

2) what if the Phillies wouldn't have caught up in Sept to the Mets when they were several games out like they did.

would he still have won the MVP?

my reasons for these questions are simple, it's clear that a player like Ramirez playing on a last place team doesn't get as much attention for the award like a player on a winning team (would anyone disagree with that?)

[brett]

let me ask this.....

1) what if JRoll wouldn't have at the beginning of the season made the prediction that the Phillies were the team to beat in the East? (then went out and had a good season playing every game like he did)

2) what if the Phillies wouldn't have caught up in Sept to the Mets when they were several games out like they did.

would he still have won the MVP?

my reasons for these questions are simple, it's clear that a player like Ramirez playing on a last place team doesn't get as much attention for the award like a player on a winning team (would anyone disagree with that?)


With the voters, well, they are so ignorant that they are basically looking around and trying to see who they wont look bad if they support. They were pushing Rollins with at least 2 weeks to go.

Its really a lemming thing. Some player gets MVP momentum (rollin)g and then the voters start to believe that he deserves it. Some will buy into rumors such as Coors still being a tremendous hitters park. Others get mental biases against voting for Pujols when his season looks like a down year, or Ramirez for the poor team record, or Wright for the collapse.

I know a voter who refuses to vote for a player who doesn't bat .300 and states that it is because when he was a kid, a .300 average was his ideal of a great hitter.

[Neilios]

I keep hearing about all these intangibles Rollins provided. Statistically, he's not the best player, but he provided tremendous leadership and other intangibles that led the Phillies to that tremendous comeback. Did anyone notice anything amazing about Rollins that is not tracked in the stats, or is this another media creation that the public likes to regurgitate to make them sound like baseball insiders?

I'm not claiming to be a Phillie insider or anything, but didn't they not start to catch fire until Chase Utley came back from the DL? Seems like they would have had more of a drive while Utley was down (especially with renting Iguchi) if Rollins was truly the leader of the team. I could be off, though...

[cardsfanatic]

Absolutely horrible choice.

[Zagi-CRO]

No Ramirez and Pujols eighth?

Standings with star-rating:


Star rating AVG HR RBI R SLG
Matt Holliday 4.66 0.340 36 135 119 0.606
Prince Fielder 4.43 0.288 50 119 109 0.618
Ryan Howard 4.40 0.268 47 136 94 0.584
Miguel Cabrera 4.15 0.320 34 119 91 0.565
David Wright 4.09 0.325 30 107 113 0.546
Carlos Lee 4.05 0.303 32 119 93 0.528
Chipper Jones 4.02 0.337 29 102 108 0.604
Albert Pujols 3.99 0.327 32 103 99 0.568
Jimmy Rollins 3.96 0.296 30 94 139 0.531
Adam Dunn 3.92 0.264 40 106 101 0.554
Ryan Braun 3.89 0.324 34 97 91 0.634
Carlos Beltran 3.86 0.276 33 112 93 0.525
Chase Utley 3.86 0.332 22 103 104 0.566
Hanley Ramirez 3.84 0.332 29 81 125 0.562
Brad Hawpe 3.82 0.292 29 116 80 0.542
Mark Teixeira 3.80 0.306 30 105 86 0.563


Matt Holliday has nearly five-stars rating /excellent/.
Only Fielder, Howard, Cabrera, Wright, Lee and Ch.Jones are above 4-stars /like 4-stars general!!/

I used math to calculate star-rating based on AVG, HR, RBI, R and SLG /offense/.

Considering Colorado's success in WS and Holliday stats, Matt Holliday is aspolutely underrated.
I think Matt Holliday is the NL MVP.

[philkid3]

Standings with star-rating:


Star rating AVG HR RBI R SLG
Matt Holliday 4.66 0.340 36 135 119 0.606
Prince Fielder 4.43 0.288 50 119 109 0.618
Ryan Howard 4.40 0.268 47 136 94 0.584
Miguel Cabrera 4.15 0.320 34 119 91 0.565
David Wright 4.09 0.325 30 107 113 0.546
Carlos Lee 4.05 0.303 32 119 93 0.528
Chipper Jones 4.02 0.337 29 102 108 0.604
Albert Pujols 3.99 0.327 32 103 99 0.568
Jimmy Rollins 3.96 0.296 30 94 139 0.531
Adam Dunn 3.92 0.264 40 106 101 0.554
Ryan Braun 3.89 0.324 34 97 91 0.634
Carlos Beltran 3.86 0.276 33 112 93 0.525
Chase Utley 3.86 0.332 22 103 104 0.566
Hanley Ramirez 3.84 0.332 29 81 125 0.562
Brad Hawpe 3.82 0.292 29 116 80 0.542
Mark Teixeira 3.80 0.306 30 105 86 0.563


Matt Holliday has nearly five-stars rating /excellent/.
Only Fielder, Howard, Cabrera, Wright, Lee and Ch.Jones are above 4-stars /like 4-stars general!!/

I used math to calculate star-rating based on AVG, HR, RBI, R and SLG /offense/.

Considering Colorado's success in WS and Holliday stats, Matt Holliday is aspolutely underrated.
I think Matt Holliday is the NL MVP.

What about fielding? On base percentage? Baserunning? Or any of the other number of things that are more important than average and home runs and more in a player's control than RBI and runs?

Also, why should the World Series matter since it's a regular season award?

[Zagi-CRO]

What about fielding? On base percentage? Baserunning? Or any of the other number of things that are more important than average and home runs and more in a player's control than RBI and runs?

Also, why should the World Series matter since it's a regular season award?

Ok, Philkid.
I didn't use fielding stats in my evaluation. It could be a next step for better evaluation, I agree.
Thx.

[digglahhh]

I don't mean he was trying to garner stats, but that a win by the Marlins in August was less meaningful and valuable in the grand scheme of things than a win by the Phillies or Mets.

I just believe that not all wins are created equal, just as I don't believe that all runs are created equal just as not all bases are equal.

I do think that a manager might let him swing away instead of hit and run, or sacrifice, or even leave him in the game instead of using a defensive replacement and possibly getting him a few more times at the plate because as a manager, I think that when the season is lost, the focus has to shift to to player development to a degree.

Ironic you say "in the grand scheme of things." Because, in the grand scheme of things, the Marlins don't play themselves. At the very least, Hanley's performance had a big impact on the playoff race everytime the Marlins played the Mets, Phills, or any other team involved in a pennant race!

[digglahhh]

I'm not claiming to be a Phillie insider or anything, but didn't they not start to catch fire until Chase Utley came back from the DL? Seems like they would have had more of a drive while Utley was down (especially with renting Iguchi) if Rollins was truly the leader of the team. I could be off, though...

They were actually well above .500 w/o Utley. They got really hot while he was out. Then he came back (just in time to face the Mets and hit a bomb to center in his second AB) and the Phills just kept rolling.

[brett]

Ironic you say "in the grand scheme of things." Because, in the grand scheme of things, the Marlins don't play themselves. At the very least, Hanley's performance had a big impact on the playoff race everytime the Marlins played the Mets, Phills, or any other team involved in a pennant race!

So he gets half credit for those games because at least one of the two teams involved was still playing for something.

(that's not excactly how I would do it)

I would give a player full credit for his stats up to the day his team was eliminated, and half credit for the remainer of the games. That's not really much if you think about it. Florida was still not elminated until about 130 games into the season, so give them 130 games + half of 32 and thats 146 or 90% of the credit of a player on a team that was in the race to the last day. I think that's a lot less than what voters docked Ramirez.

[plask_stirlac]

Hanley Ramirez is a great player but let's not go overboard here. It's questionable whether he can play SS, like Braun at 3B. We'll give 'em time, I guess. They probably would be better at DH (or 1B for Braun). He's not an MVP. If A-Rod had an offensive season like he just did at SS it would be nothing special.

And how did Holliday lead his team more than Rollins? They had better pitching and defense in Colorado, some of the NL's best after July 1. They were not a good team before their pitching "ignited". I would say the Phillies were a good team without such great pitching, just pounding people.

Terrible choice, IMO. I'm puzzled how the writers could give the award to Rollins this year, instead of a slugging player at an offensive position, and not have done the same last year with Jeter or Mauer instead of Justin Morneau in the AL. It's the same situation, only this time, the slugging player at the offensive position (Holliday) had the better argument (unlike Morneau), as did David Wright. I'm thinking the writers were impressed by Rollins 30 homeruns, while overlooking the bandbox he plays in, his mediocre OBP, and his overrated defense. Giving the award to Rollins this year after and not Jeter or Mauer last year, who both had better years than Rollins and worst competition than Rollins, really undermines the writers legitimacy, IMO.

You seem to assume it makes sense. Can we assume it doesn't make sense instead? :D

It's kind of a mess. It's not a sure sign of the league's best player and shouldn't be read as such IMO. But it's a decent celbration of the season. Rollins was definitely entertaining, productive, and a leader this season. He robbed no-one, his stats were right up there with others on teams that did well. Sorry, a player from a sub-.500 team shouldn't get the MVP, he can be the best player and if there's a Ted Williams award then he can get that.

[philkid3]

Hanley Ramirez is a great player but let's not go overboard here. It's questionable whether he can play SS, like Braun at 3B. We'll give 'em time, I guess. They probably would be better at DH (or 1B for Braun). He's not an MVP. If A-Rod had an offensive season like he just did at SS it would be nothing special.

Yes, well, A-Rod should already have about 7 or 8 MVPs by now.

[digglahhh]

So he gets half credit for those games because at least one of the two teams involved was still playing for something.

(that's not excactly how I would do it)

I would give a player full credit for his stats up to the day his team was eliminated, and half credit for the remainer of the games. That's not really much if you think about it. Florida was still not elminated until about 130 games into the season, so give them 130 games + half of 32 and thats 146 or 90% of the credit of a player on a team that was in the race to the last day. I think that's a lot less than what voters docked Ramirez.

Why would you do that? It doesn't really make much sense to me.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Why would you do that? It doesn't really make much sense to me.

Because stats apparently aren't as important if the games are "meaningless".

[digglahhh]

Because stats apparently aren't as important if the games are "meaningless".

To me, some sort of discount like this would only be justified if the meaninglessness of the game made it somehow easier to accrue stats.

Like when a running back breaks a thirty yard run off a draw when his team is down 20 with a minute left and an eighty yard field to drive. Or, when a player scores 15 points in the fourth quarter of an NBA blowout against the opponent's bench.

I mean, all stats in games in which a player's team loses are meaningless to a degree, right... So, why not only count stats for games that the team wins...

Again, a discount would only be warranted if the situation made it somehow easier for the player to accrue stats. Not hitting and running in a few situations here and there doesn't account for much in the grand scheme of things.

If you are going to look at the award this way, then just eliminate players on non-contending teams outright.

[SamtheBravesFan]

To me, some sort of discount like this would only be justified if the meaninglessness of the game made it somehow easier to accrue stats.

Like when a running back breaks a thirty yard run off a draw when his team is down 20 with a minute left and an eighty yard field to drive. Or, when a player scores 15 points in the fourth quarter of an NBA blowout against the opponent's bench.

I mean, all stats in games in which a player's team loses are meaningless to a degree, right... So, why not only count stats for games that the team wins...

Again, a discount would only be warranted if the situation made it somehow easier for the player to accrue stats. Not hitting and running in a few situations here and there doesn't account for much in the grand scheme of things.

If you are going to look at the award this way, then just eliminate players on non-contending teams outright.

Hey, I agree with you, I was just trying to get into the guy's head a bit. ;)

[Old Sweater]

Also, why should the World Series matter since it's a regular season award?

It shouldn't and neither should your team making the playoffs. The criteria is the player that helps his team win the most games. With a players team making the playoffs swaying the vote so much maybe they should start counting the players performance in the playoffs if the writers are not going to stick with the criteria for the MVP. You'll never convince me that Rollins was more valuble to the Phillies then Holliday was to the Rockies in winning games the whole season. Way to much emphasis this year was put on the stretch run and the teams making the playoffs as if the rest of the season didn't count towards the players MVP credentials.

[digglahhh]

Hey, I agree with you, I was just trying to get into the guy's head a bit. ;)

Yeah, I know you agree with me.

I was further ranting to a sympathetic ear!

[brett]

To me, some sort of discount like this would only be justified if the meaninglessness of the game made it somehow easier to accrue stats.



Here's how I really look at players based on their team's success.

As long as two players come from teams that were both at least close to .500, I don't consider where they actually finished at all.

A player from a 100 win team, and one from a 75 win team would be rated totally independently of their team's record.

If a player was from a team that was literally battling for last place, say less than 70 wins, I will consider that as a tiebreaker. I just think that when you get a group of players who start losing, their stats on paper are less indicative of the true value of their production. (Granted in the case of pitching seasons like Steve Carlton in '72 his teams ineptitude might raise his value)

Florida never reached that point. They were probably one big run away from getting into the wild card hunt up until the last couple of weeks.

They DID under-win their run based projection by 1 win, while Philadelpia over-won their run based projection by 2 wins (but the Mets actually over-won and Rockies under-won).

Runs produced and allowed can predict a team's W-L record to within about 5% on average. The other 5% comes from somewhere. I know that there is such a thing as team chemistry too-one player's play rubs off on others.

[brett]

Yeah, I know you agree with me.

I was further ranting to a sympathetic ear!


Sarcasm IS a double edged sword or something

[philkid3]

It shouldn't and neither should your team making the playoffs. The criteria is the player that helps his team win the most games.
I'm not sure how often we agree, but this is one of those times.