PDA

View Full Version : Hit-by-pitch as a batter's stat



iblemetrician
11-14-2007, 01:33 AM
To what extent is hit-by-pitch a repeatable "skill" of a batter, as opposed to just dumb luck?

I can think of a number of reasons why one batter might be hit more often than another: He may be physically larger (so a more likely target), or tend to crowd the plate, or be less agile and fail to get out of the way of close pitches. Or he may be a more patient hitter and get more pitches, so have more opportunities to be hit by them.

Has anyone looked at this already?

SABR Matt
11-14-2007, 02:12 PM
Suffice to say, the HBP rate from season to season for full time batters has been proven to be fairly stable...about as stable as (say) the stolen base rate or the triple rate. HBP are always rare events even for batters with some "skill" for reaching base in this manner (see: Biggio, Craig and Eckstein, David), so random variation makes HBP rates more unstable than hit rates or walk rates, but it is definitely within the batter's control to get hit more or less often.

AstrosFan
11-14-2007, 02:15 PM
I agree that it probably is a skill, but should it be? It is a rule of baseball that you have to attempt to get out of the way of the pitch. Are players who wear armor and take the pitch, in a sense, cheating?

SABR Matt
11-14-2007, 02:34 PM
Possibly, but it doesn't matter statistically. It's a skill so long as it produces runs. When the league calls games based on the rulebook rather than based on good ole' boyism and tradition...then we can talk about whether it's cheating to use big elbow paads and take 25 HBP for the team.

StillFlash
11-14-2007, 03:24 PM
To a large degree it's random, more the fault of the pitcher. However, there are several players, and it seems like an increasing amount, who deliberately fail to get out of the way.

iblemetrician
11-15-2007, 05:11 AM
Thanks for the comments.

Even assuming that no batter ever deliberately gets hit by a pitch, it's certainly plausible, as I indicated in my original question, that there are batter-specific factors which would yield different HBP rates.

One I didn't mention explicitly: Since an HBP is possible only on what would otherwise be a called ball, batters who take more pitches should have a higher HBP rate.

Are there any stats available on batter pitch counts? (Number of pitches, how many balls, called strikes, swinging strikes, fouls.)

digglahhh
11-15-2007, 06:18 AM
Batting style may be related too. Since many HBPs are the result of a pitcher trying to come inside and missing, players whose offensive approaches make important for the pitchers to get inside may draw more HBPs.

As iblemetrician said, Even if it is not a skill in and of itself, characteristics of the batter may increase the likelihood of it happening. Just like one model car may be no easier to steal than another, but characteristics of that car make it more likely to be stolen.

Derek Jeter gets his pretty frequently, relatively speaking. He seems to possess all the qualities hypothesized here. He crowds the plate, has an above average batting eye, and has power to the opposite field and often looks to go that way.

StillFlash
11-16-2007, 01:48 PM
Baseball-reference.com gives total number of pitches, and pct that are called balls, called strikes, swinging strikes, fouls, and put in play (1988-2007)

I believe virtually all pitches that hit a batter, he wouldn't consider swinging at. When a pitch comes close, the batter has to choose to lean back, jump back, or perhaps turn his back towards the pitcher, which puts the upper arm and shoulder actually closer to the plate, usually resulting in a HBP

I would guess 90-95% of players have about the same pct of pitches that hit them, and the rest that have higher values.

digglahhh
11-16-2007, 02:05 PM
Baseball-reference.com gives total number of pitches, and pct that are called balls, called strikes, swinging strikes, fouls, and put in play (1988-2007)

I believe virtually all pitches that hit a batter, he wouldn't consider swinging at. When a pitch comes close, the batter has to choose to lean back, jump back, or perhaps turn his back towards the pitcher, which puts the upper arm and shoulder actually closer to the plate, usually resulting in a HBP

I would guess 90-95% of players have about the same pct of pitches that hit them, and the rest that have higher values.

But, I think the argument is that HBPs are essentially random flukes, the more pitches a player takes, the more opportunities for that random fluke to occur, and hence increases the more likely that it will.

SHOELESSJOE3
11-18-2007, 02:26 PM
Some are random, probably the bulk of batters hit. But there are some who are not random or chance. Could be their position in the batters box, how they are pitched to..........are they usually pitched inside, how much of an effort do they make to get out of the way on off speed pitches.

Some random but some are in a league all their own, Biggio HBP 282 times, miles ahead of most modern hitters. Baylor with 267 and Hunt 232, no flukes there.

SABR Matt
11-18-2007, 03:27 PM
If David Eckstein didn't suck so much, he'd join Biggio. He doesn't get as much PT, he started late, and he will wash out of the bigs too early to catch up to Biggio's territory, but there's a guy who gets hit a LOT.

Jose Guillen gets hit quite a bit too now that he's matured into a MOTO hitter.

doane
11-24-2007, 03:47 PM
Craig Biggio's career OBP goes down by 23 points if you take out his hit-by-pitch.

iblemetrician
11-24-2007, 03:56 PM
Has anyone used pitch f/x to plot the pitch location distribution of hit-by-pitches?

mikefast
11-24-2007, 10:12 PM
Has anyone used pitch f/x to plot the pitch location distribution of hit-by-pitches?

Typically, we do not have PITCHf/x data for pitches that hit a batter. We only have PITCHf/x data for 19 hit batters in the postseason and no data for hit batters in the regular season.

iblemetrician
11-24-2007, 10:50 PM
Any idea why that is?

mikefast
11-26-2007, 07:58 AM
Any idea why that is?

I don't see any reason for it and haven't seen anyone else comment on it. In fact I didn't realize that we didn't have PITCHf/x data for regular season HB pitches until you asked your question about HBP location and I went to look for the answer.