View Full Version : Todd Helton
four tool
07-27-2009, 11:07 AM
but also 538280, on black and grey ink:
Also, while career numbers count, getting black ink gets people elected--re Rice.
538280
07-27-2009, 08:14 PM
but also 538280, on black and grey ink:
The method was created, of course, by Bill James, so you may wonder why James chose to make the weightings with such sabermetric ignorance. The simple reason is that when making up these methods James was trying to get more of a sense of the the HOF voters' behavior, which we all know is infamously clueless and centered almost entirely on the triple crown numbers.
If I ever said that (which I did search of the archives and could find no instance of me ever saying that, but if I did), then I was wrong. I have seen many people say that same thing here before if I said that in the past I was probably just trusting what they were saying but if you look at the creator of the Ink Tests' words upon creating them it is clear that modeling HOF voting was not James' intent in creating them.
The oriignal idea of the ink was to look at playwers already in the hall, find out how much ink each recieved and then analyse the data.
Sorry, but that was not their intent. Read the passage from Politics of Glory that I posted, it is clearly stated by their creator that that was not their intent. I don't understand why people continue to claim that their intent was to determine who will make the HOF, it is not, they were created to try to determine who SHOULD, for which case they are useless IMO. I don't care what the HOF voters look at, that wasn't my point in making that post I linked to. My post was to point out how useless the Ink Tests are.
Paul Wendt
07-27-2009, 11:33 PM
If I ever said that (which I did search of the archives and could find no instance of me ever saying that, but if I did), then I was wrong. I have seen many people say that same thing here before if I said that in the past I was probably just trusting what they were saying but if you look at the creator of the Ink Tests' words upon creating them it is clear that modeling HOF voting was not James' intent in creating them.
I quoted your article on Black/Grey Ink, which you recommended and linked in #240! Point one, Weightings.
:)
fourtool responded to the same article, merely quoting the link.
DClutch
07-27-2009, 11:49 PM
His batting average away from Coors is horrible for his career!
four tool
07-28-2009, 05:20 AM
If I ever said that (which I did search of the archives and could find no instance of me ever saying that, but if I did), then I was wrong. I have seen many people say that same thing here before if I said that in the past I was probably just trusting what they were saying but if you look at the creator of the Ink Tests' words upon creating them it is clear that modeling HOF voting was not James' intent in creating them.
Sorry, but that was not their intent. Read the passage from Politics of Glory that I posted, it is clearly stated by their creator that that was not their intent. I don't understand why people continue to claim that their intent was to determine who will make the HOF, it is not, they were created to try to determine who SHOULD, for which case they are useless IMO. I don't care what the HOF voters look at, that wasn't my point in making that post I linked to. My post was to point out how useless the Ink Tests are.
The ink tests are useless to you, but NOT to the voters from what they've said--that's my point. Yes, James did use the ink to "predict" who would make the hall, but he had to put the ink numbers together first
and then try to figure out how much the ink counted.
Senor Octobre
07-28-2009, 05:36 AM
His batting average away from Coors is horrible for his career!
Yeah, that .295 sure is anemic.
OleMissCub
07-28-2009, 04:55 PM
His batting average away from Coors is horrible for his career!
yeah a guy with a .295/.395/.494 career rate on the road over 13 years is horrible.
Honus Wagner Rules
07-28-2009, 05:06 PM
He was trying to do that with the HOF Monitor but not with any of the other measures. Look at the quote from his book.
Hmmm...I reread the entire chapter. You are right. James gives no justification for the weights he gives for the stats in the Black Ink scoring system.
538280
07-28-2009, 08:14 PM
The ink tests are useless to you, but NOT to the voters from what they've said--that's my point. Yes, James did use the ink to "predict" who would make the hall, but he had to put the ink numbers together first
and then try to figure out how much the ink counted.
Sorry, but James did not create the Ink Tests to predict who would make the HOF. Read the part of the book when he first introduces them, read the part I quoted, it is clear from his own words that that is not what he was doing.
538280
07-28-2009, 08:19 PM
I quoted your article on Black/Grey Ink, which you recommended and linked in #240! Point one, Weightings.
:)
fourtool responded to the same article, merely quoting the link.
You are correct. I was wrong in saying that in the article though, that was not James' actual intent.
Back to the question....
I never thought of him as a HOF-type player, but after looking up his numbers... I would say that he has done enough.
He'll need 3,000 hits IMHO.
But he looks like he can play until he is 40, and make it. All those walks are making the journey a little long however...
jjpm74
07-28-2009, 08:37 PM
Back to the question....
I never thought of him as a HOF-type player, but after looking up his numbers... I would say that he has done enough.
He'll need 3,000 hits IMHO.
But he looks like he can play until he is 40, and make it. All those walks are making the journey a little long however...
Helton's maybe a year away from lock as a HOFer. his OBP and OPS+ are well over that of a typical HOFer as are many of his other counting stats. He definitely doesn't need 3000 hits to get there.
Do you trust the voters enough to still believe he will get in? I think there will be a large amount of voters who will discount his numbers because of the era and the ballpark.
Three thousand hits would disarm them, IMHO.
brett
07-28-2009, 09:24 PM
Helton's maybe a year away from lock as a HOFer. his OBP and OPS+ are well over that of a typical HOFer as are many of his other counting stats. He definitely doesn't need 3000 hits to get there.
Not quite. He is 1000 plate appearances short of Larry Walker who had a 140 OPS+ and played great outfield and ran well. He has only played 1700 some games. That is pretty low for a first baseman (adjusting for war time).
Ace Venom
07-28-2009, 10:12 PM
Helton's got 500 doubles, but Mark Grace found out that you still need 3,000 hits with 500 doubles for that number to matter. I voted no.
OleMissCub
07-28-2009, 10:35 PM
Helton's got 500 doubles, but Mark Grace found out that you still need 3,000 hits with 500 doubles for that number to matter. I voted no.
Fun fact: Helton wears 17 to honor Gracie. When he was a rookie and got a hit against the Cubs he told Grace about it at first base.
Funner fact: I wore 17 all through high school and college because of Gracie (I'm also a lefty first baseman like both of them).
Ace Venom
07-28-2009, 10:53 PM
Fun fact: Helton wears 17 to honor Gracie. When he was a rookie and got a hit against the Cubs he told Grace about it at first base.
Funner fact: I wore 17 all through high school and college because of Gracie (I'm also a lefty first baseman like both of them).
Definitely fun facts. Thanks for sharing.
dominik
07-28-2009, 11:43 PM
Back to the question....
I never thought of him as a HOF-type player, but after looking up his numbers... I would say that he has done enough.
He'll need 3,000 hits IMHO.
But he looks like he can play until he is 40, and make it. All those walks are making the journey a little long however...
I think it|s either 3000 hits or 400 HRs he needs.
four tool
07-29-2009, 04:37 AM
Right now I could see Todd in the hall, and I hope the voters look at splits, etc. rather than write him off for playing in Coors
brett
07-29-2009, 07:18 AM
Right now I could see Todd in the hall, and I hope the voters look at splits, etc. rather than write him off for playing in Coors
The longer he hangs around, and the more that the post humidor Coors gets talked about, the higher he will go.
And I don't think he needs 3000 hits, or 400 home runs. 400 home runs would help, but how many players have gone .300/.400/.500 in any environment. If he makes it to 2100 games with those rates, he should eventually get in. If he gets 2500 hits with a .320 average, the voters will have a hard time holding back. Its the wrong reason. He is closing in because he draws 100 walks, and plays great defense.
He's .296/.396/.494 on the road guys! That is .302/.404/.504 with normal splits.
Anyone want to name the players with with .300/.400/.500 and as many games? I think there are about 15.
Otis Nixon's Bodyguard
07-29-2009, 08:47 AM
Fun fact: Helton wears 17 to honor Gracie. When he was a rookie and got a hit against the Cubs he told Grace about it at first base.
Funner fact: I wore 17 all through high school and college because of Gracie (I'm also a lefty first baseman like both of them).
Another fun fact about Helton (that you, of all people, probably already know): Helton was Peyton Manning's backup at quarterback at the University of Tennessee. His Rockies teammate, Seth Smith, was Eli Manning's backup at quarterback at Ole Miss.
OleMissCub
07-29-2009, 09:00 AM
Another fun fact about Helton (that you, of all people, probably already know): Helton was Peyton Manning's backup at quarterback at the University of Tennessee. His Rockies teammate, Seth Smith, was Eli Manning's backup at quarterback at Ole Miss.
yes indeed. I know Seth, he's a WONDERFUL person.
jaybird_1981
07-29-2009, 09:08 AM
Another fun fact about Helton (that you, of all people, probably already know): Helton was Peyton Manning's backup at quarterback at the University of Tennessee. His Rockies teammate, Seth Smith, was Eli Manning's backup at quarterback at Ole Miss.
He was actually the back up to Jerry Colquitt at the beginning of the year but when Colquitt got hurt in the UCLA game Helton came in. After that they phased Helton out to play the two freshmen Peyton Manning and Branndon Stewart with Manning eventually winning the job :)
PVNICK
07-29-2009, 09:38 AM
He was actually the back up to Jerry Colquitt at the beginning of the year but when Colquitt got hurt in the UCLA game Helton came in. After that they phased Helton out to play the two freshmen Peyton Manning and Branndon Stewart with Manning eventually winning the job :)
I thought Helton got hurt running the option and Manning came in more or less cold to start the Florida game (of course it was a long time ago so my mempory could be way off).
Cowtipper
10-25-2009, 01:08 AM
.325, 15 home runs, 86 RBI, 132 OPS+...a very nice bounce back year for Helton. The problem with him though is that he is, in large part a product of Coors Fields.
Home:
.361 average, 200 home runs, 1.100 OPS
Away:
.294 average, 125 home runs, .885 OPS
I'm sure that has been brought up in this thread, but it bears mentioning again.
I still think he's a Hall of Famer.
most of his career averages have been going down since he turned 30. He was brilliant until 2005, since then he's merely been average. I cant see him regaining his late 20's form, but if he wants a really good shot at the HOF he's going to need a few more great seasons.
The fact he only came 5th in MVP voting in 2000 after what was at face value one of the best seasons of the last 10 years shows that most people think Heltons numbers are all about Coors.
Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan
10-25-2009, 07:34 AM
most of his career averages have been going down since he turned 30. He was brilliant until 2005, since then he's merely been average. I cant see him regaining his late 20's form, but if he wants a really good shot at the HOF he's going to need a few more great seasons.
The fact he only came 5th in MVP voting in 2000 after what was at face value one of the best seasons of the last 10 years shows that most people think Heltons numbers are all about Coors.
They are all Coors, just look at his career Home/Away splits:
Home: 3283 AB / .361 AVG / .458 OBP / .642 SLG / 1.100 OPS / 200 HR / 728 RBI
Away: 3221 AB / .294 AVG / .395 OBP / .489 SLG / .885 OPS / 125 HR / 474 RBI
These are some of the biggest splits ever for a serious HOF candidate. With normalized numbers, Helton has around a .900 OPS, .300 BA, 2000 H and less than 300 HR. Those are good numbers no doubt, but in the era of the hitter I believe he needs more to get in the Hall. On a normalized basis, Helton's numbers are about on par with Will Clark and moderately better than Keith Hernandez at this point.