Does defense make this much of a difference (question about WARP3)

[mhowes]

A question about WARP3 (from baseball prospectus)

I was looking over some final numbers for the Reds and notice how much more Dunn produced with his bat than Phillips but how much more Phillips did on defense.

Then when looking at a combined stat, WARP3 that Phillips leads done by a wide margin. Can someone explain this discrepancy to me. Or better, is Phillips defense worth *that* much?

Looking at the numbers the only guess I have is that BRAA and FRAA are not adjust for position played but WARP3 is?

first batting
BRAA (batting runs above average)
38 Dunn
25 Jr
14 Phillips

a massive gap between Dunn and Phillips as expected

now defense
FRAA (fielding runs above average
25 Phillips (!!)
-2 Jr
-17 Dunn

a massive gap between Dunn and Phillips as expected

But combined with WARP3?
10.0 Phillips
6.3 Jr
6.0 Dunn

thanks
mike

[philkid3]

At one point in the season, Jose Reyes was something like two games ahead of Hanley Ramirez, even when Ramirez was dominating Reyes on offense. Yeah, defense actually can make a very big difference.

[SABR Matt]

As bad as Dunn is defensively...yes, Phillips is a better player. Phillips is among the top four fielding second basemen in baseball right now IMHO...at his position that's worth 4-5 wins for just defense.

[skyking162]

Yes! Fielding matters that much! (I'm not going to discuss BPro's stat specifically, though.)

In 2006 Ken Griffey Jr. was likely worse than replacement level. He didn't hit all that well and played an AWFUL center field -- UZR says -30 runs compared to average.

In fact, I was messing aroundn with some numbers the other day and Cincinnati had three of the worst fielders in the league -- Griffey, Dunn, and Encarnacion -- costing them about 80 runs compared to average overall fielders.

[PVNICK]

All you had to do was watch last night's game to see how much a difference defense, even OF defense can make. Or the be precise how many balls that look like outs off the bat can be played into extra base hits.

[KCGHOST]

I believe WARP3 adjusts for defense, the position, and the era. It also adjust for the league and park but that shouldn't matter in this case.

[Ubiquitous]

Phillips according to BP is worth 75 runs and Dunn is worth about 43 runs. A difference of 32 runs. Dunn has a WARP of 4.7 and Phillips has a 8.4 a difference of 3.7 wins. The run difference looks about right for the win difference.

As for WARP3 apparently BP thinks that the 2007 season was a stonger then average league since they both get a boost in their wins number.