On David Ortiz's Down Year

[PhilWings24]

Alex Rodriguez is the AL MVP w.o a doubt, in my opinion. But if i hear one more person say david ortiz had a down year, i'm gonna flip out. On a per-game-basis, this is the best season of hsi career. the fact that he missed so much more time than usual means that it isn't the best season of his career, but a couple notes on this "down year" of his:

He Leads the MLB in OPS. Yes, even ahaead of a-rod. only by 0.005 points, but he does top a-rod.

He's 3rd in the AL in homeruns. HR are down so much all across the league this year that i have to think it wasn't just chace, one very reasoanble explanation is the brutally cold weather that the 2007 MLB Season was greeted with.

His 446 OBP is the best the AL has seen since 2002.

He's 6th in the AL in RBI, 2nd in Doubles, 5th in Runs, 1st in Walks (has more Walks than Strikeouts) 6th in average, 2nd in Slg, plus top 5 in all sorts of stat-head business that i could break out for you if i felt like it lol.

There's no doubt that this year isn't as sexy as some of his other years. a 35 HR hitter is just not the same as a 40-54 homerun hitter, in terms of the buzz he generates when he's at the plate. But if you look at all the team-independent numbers, he's having the best year of his career, and even the team dependant numbers are not THAT far down.

So basically this is just a call to the general public to acknowledge that maybe his season didn't have the same sort of sexiness to it that we're used to, but by absolutely no stretch of the imagination was this a down year. ted williams and babe ruth are about the only player i can think of for whom this would have been a down year lol.

[ChrisLDuncan]

His power is down a bit, but if you ask me the entire AL is having a down year.

[plask_stirlac]

It's obviously not a down year. I don't think it's that big of a deal now, even from the fans who would say Carlos Pena "still" can't hit .280.

He has 8 in September and had 8 in August, very good months, and 35 now, a big total (more than Morneau last year). When he had 19, fans were more apprehensive, uninterested in OBP and SLG helped by doubles.

Some people didn't fully accept his 54 HR last year, either, because of team success.

[skyking162]

Just wanted to support this post. Thanks for bringing it up.

Anyone have numbers showing offensive numbers this year compared to last? (HR/AB, runs/game, etc.)

[Edgartohof]

It's obviously not a down year. I don't think it's that big of a deal now, even from the fans who would say Carlos Pena "still" can't hit .280.

He has 8 in September and had 8 in August, very good months, and 35 now, a big total (more than Morneau last year). When he had 19, fans were more apprehensive, uninterested in OBP and SLG helped by doubles.

Some people didn't fully accept his 54 HR last year, either, because of team success.

Hey, 35 HR may be "down" from 54, and even 47, but it's still good enough for 3rd in the league!

I mean this has been a down HR year overall, especially in the AL (except for A-Rod).

I mean it is quite possible that a player (or multiple players for that matter) will make it into the top 10 in HR this season with less that 30 HR!!!

Do you know the last time that happened? 1995!!! And that's because of the strike. The last non-strike season for that to have happened was in 1992 (it happened in both leagues).

[Matt1901]

Even when Big Papi wasn't hitting a lot of home runs in late July, he still had many doubles. After the incredible August and September Ortiz has had, he is ranked 5th in the majors in Isolated Power, 7th in Home Runs, 2nd in Slugging Average and 2nd in Doubles, one behind Magglio Ordonez.

One factor that has limited Pipi's home run production, in addition to some leg injuries, is the quality of pitches that he has seen this season is down. That is part of the reason why his OBA is .446.

Here are the month-by-month averages for David Ortiz. He has been very consistent. His lowest monthly OPS of .978 in June would be ranked 10th in the majors on the entire season. Even his lowest SLG of .539 in June would be good enough for a respectable 22nd in the majors and 9th in the A.L.




MONTH AVG OBP SLG OPS
April .297 .402 .615 1.017
May .333 .459 .540 .999
June .326 .439 .539 .978
July .330 .427 .568 .995
Aug. .311 .424 .631 1.055
Sept. .404 .522 .843 1.365

[plask_stirlac]

Hey, 35 HR may be "down" from 54, and even 47, but it's still good enough for 3rd in the league!

I mean this has been a down HR year overall, especially in the AL (except for A-Rod).

I mean it is quite possible that a player (or multiple players for that matter) will make it into the top 10 in HR this season with less that 30 HR!!!

Do you know the last time that happened? 1995!!! And that's because of the strike. The last non-strike season for that to have happened was in 1992 (it happened in both leagues).

Fine, I don't care if home runs go down but production goes up, but others do. I love doubles, perhaps too much. I draft doubles guys in fantasy 5x5 because I think they'll be good for runs and RBI (i.e. Miguel Cabrera, Sizemore over 40-120 guys, Overbay). The Red Sox this year aren't based on homers but are a great offensive club, it's singles, walks, and doubles.

I don't see raw numbers anymore if I see the year. I see 1968 or 2000 or 1984 added onto something and I know the general offensive level, so Clemente in 1968 with .291/.355/.482 was superb, in 1999 that's a healthy but blah season from B.J. Surhoff. And with offense a bit down this year, a great hitter like Ortiz gave more value.

This is similar to Miguel Cabrera's 2006 season being his best (slightly), with fewer HR.

[STLCards2]

In my opinion, this has been Ortiz' best season. Sure, he has lost about 15 homeruns over normal, but he has hit about 20 more doubles than normal too. Hitting around .040 higher than his career normal without losing walks more than makes up for 15 fewer homeruns. This has been Ortiz' finest all-around year as a pure hitter so far.

[plask_stirlac]

In my opinion, this has been Ortiz' best season. Sure, he has lost about 15 homeruns over normal, but he has hit about 20 more doubles than normal too. Hitting around .040 higher than his career normal without losing walks more than makes up for 15 fewer homeruns. This has been Ortiz' finest all-around year as a pure hitter so far.

I agree though last year was splendid.

[BoSox Rule]

There hasn't been a day this year where anybody should have said that Ortiz was having a down year. Its probably the best year of his career. He's been an on-base machine. His power is down? News to me, he's slugging .615 and has over 50 doubles.

[brett]

In my opinion, this has been Ortiz' best season. Sure, he has lost about 15 homeruns over normal, but he has hit about 20 more doubles than normal too. Hitting around .040 higher than his career normal without losing walks more than makes up for 15 fewer homeruns. This has been Ortiz' finest all-around year as a pure hitter so far.

Ortiz is having his best relative slugging percentage and relative on-base percentage this year. He is slugging at 144% of the league rate (up a shade from last year). He has produced more total bases per out and more bases by hit or walk per out than in in any other season in his career.

[PhilWings24]

glad to see all the support for my boy papi:happy:

in my humble opinion, last year was better than this year, overall. but i do think that his per-game-value has been far greater this year. its just taht he's missed more time this year than last, so the total value for the season ins't quite there.

and there's no disputing that his homeruns are down and all that, but to me all that means is that his season is less "cool" than you'd expect lol. he's made up for every bit of his decreased homerun power by increasing his double power, and by putting the ball in play more, and by being patient at the plate, all that.

also, since the all-star break he's hit 21 homeruns, which is just like vintage papi.

there is certainly a good case to be made for this being his best season, overall. i'm glad to see no one trying to build a case for it being a dissapointing season, though, like you hear all the time from the media (although his great august and september has done a lot to quiet that criticism, although there is still more of it than their should be).

[Mattingly]

Other than the big walkoff HRs or jacks overall, he's not been bad at all. Most teams would love to have his "off year" from their best player.

Wasn't his back hurting him earlier in the season? In either case, perhaps not MVP consideration, but he's certainly been an excellent player this season.

[VTSoxFan]

He hurt his left shoulder making an ill-advised (and unsuccessful) dive into 2nd base early in the season, and that's hampered him. He's also been hobbled a bit by knee problems, which caused him to alter his batting stance and robbed him of some of the power in his swing. He's looking at off-season knee surgery. He sat out today's game, saying that last night, his knees were killing him (so I heard on NESN tonight).

His season has been less spectacular than we've become accustomed to, but overall more productive. It sure is a lot of fun to watch him. :)

[STLCards2]

Maybe next we can talk about Albert's "off-year."

[philkid3]

Haha, I love how many people are pretty much acting like Pujols has been mediocre this year because he's not as good as he usually is.

[STLCards2]

Haha, I love how many people are pretty much acting like Pujols has been mediocre this year because he's not as good as he usually is.

I know, it is rediculous. He is hiting .330 with an OBP over .430. He has almost twice as many strikeouts and as walks (hasn't struck out in the entire month of September), has 40 doubles and has over 100 RBI's despite playing in a pitcher's park with a cast of clowns hitting in front of/behind him. He has also remained one of the top defensive firstbasemen in baseball. The only thing that is down this year is homeruns. People also don't realize that he has been hurt most of the second half. He was on crutches for almost a week, but was never DL'd. Most people would kill for down years like Ortiz' and Pujols'.

[philkid3]

He has also remained one of the top defensive firstbasemen in baseball.

One of? Man, I think Pujols is more clearly the best fielder at his position than anyone else in baseball at their respective positions. Some of the metrics I've looked at have him comparable to Keith Hernandez. Obviously I find that somewhat suspect, but it still says something.

He is awesome with the glove. Doesn't mean necessarily much at first, but still.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

I agree that Ortiz is not really having a down year. I could see why some believe it's a down year compared to others. All those ESPN highlights we saw more of in some previous years. Remember how it just seemed so automatic..... Dave almost seeming to come through... unstoppable.

Thats what some are looking at, still a clutch guy but not as often as in some previous years.

[skyking162]

One of? Man, I think Pujols is more clearly the best fielder at his position than anyone else in baseball at their respective positions. Some of the metrics I've looked at have him comparable to Keith Hernandez. Obviously I find that somewhat suspect, but it still says something.

He is awesome with the glove. Doesn't mean necessarily much at first, but still.

The metrics say he's about 30 runs better than the average 1B. Helton's next at around +20 runs and it drops off quickly. Compared to a typical 1B slugger who's average to 10 runs below average, that's huge. Plus he's one of the best hitters in the league. He and Wright are my 2007 co-MVPs.

Comparing 1B to SS, it's about a 15-20 run difference for average fielders, meaning Pujols' defense is more valuable than the average shortstop.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

If being second in the league in OPS+ and Runs Created is a "down year", I'd take it.

Someone should drop an "A-bomb" on any mediot who suggests otherwise.

[brett]

One of? Man, I think Pujols is more clearly the best fielder at his position than anyone else in baseball at their respective positions.

I don't agree. Todd Helton is an all-time great defensive first baseman.

[brett]

glad to see all the support for my boy papi:happy:

in my humble opinion, last year was better than this year, overall. but i do think that his per-game-value has been far greater this year. its just taht he's missed more time this year than last, so the total value for the season ins't quite there.



From a Sabr point of view, if he has 4 more years like this one, he gets in the hall of fame. If he has 4 more like last year, he possibly doesn't.

[brett]

The metrics say he's about 30 runs better than the average 1B. Helton's next at around +20 runs and it drops off quickly. Compared to a typical 1B slugger who's average to 10 runs below average, that's huge. Plus he's one of the best hitters in the league. He and Wright are my 2007 co-MVPs.

Comparing 1B to SS, it's about a 15-20 run difference for average fielders, meaning Pujols' defense is more valuable than the average shortstop.


Good point. If a first baseman can save 20-25 runs on the league average, he is probably worth as much as an average shortstop with the same hitting numbers.

Ramirez is about -10 as a shortstop and Pujols about +20 as a first baseman (versus average at their positions). This is more than the "standard" differential between a replacement SS and replacement first baseman.

[skyking162]

From a Sabr point of view, if he has 4 more years like this one, he gets in the hall of fame. If he has 4 more like last year, he possibly doesn't.

What's sad is that the reverse is probably true from a traditional/BBWAA point of view.

[ipitch]

One of? Man, I think Pujols is more clearly the best fielder at his position than anyone else in baseball at their respective positions. Some of the metrics I've looked at have him comparable to Keith Hernandez. Obviously I find that somewhat suspect, but it still says something.

He is awesome with the glove. Doesn't mean necessarily much at first, but still.

Are there metrics that say Pujols is a better fielder than Todd Helton? Over the last 4 seasons, Helton only has 15 errors, while Pujols has 38. Their range appears to be very similar.

[philkid3]

Are there metrics that say Pujols is a better fielder than Todd Helton? Over the last 4 seasons, Helton only has 15 errors, while Pujols has 38. Their range appears to be very similar.

It would be nice if someone could find UZR on this, but we'll look at a couple. Pujols leads all 1B with an .844 revised zone percentage, 39 points ahead of Helton. The only guy really close is Kevin Youklis. Helton is 5th in baseball, but close to the two guys ahead of him and second in the NL. He was also ahead of Helton in both measures last year.

Pujols also leads all 1B with 50 outs made outside of his zone. Helton is third in the NL and all of baseball with 41. Adrian Gonzalez is the between man.

I'm not a big fan of FRAA2, but looking at it, Helton for most of his career has been consistently from about 14 to 19. This year he is at 19. Pujols, meanwhile, was at 19 last year and is at 22 this year.

The last two seasons, Pujols has really come on, and I would judge that he's passed Helton to become now the best first baseman in baseball. And I'd say the second best is actually probably Youklis, but Helton is arguably the second best in the NL.

You'll also see Skyking's estimation that Pujols is worth 30+ runs and Helton is worth 20+.



I don't agree. Todd Helton is an all-time great defensive first baseman.

Well sure, there's certainly evidence that he is. But there's also evidence to suggest that Pujols has become even better, and if he keeps up at this level will be an all-time greater (?) first baseman.

[skyking162]

According to this method (http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/03/how-should-we-calculate-zone-rating.html), Pujols is at +30 and Helton's at +17.

Next five:
+ 15 Kotchman
+11 Mientkiewicz (only 1/3 season)
+10 Pena (MVP candidate)
+9 Overbay
+9 Youkilis

UZR runs per 150 games, '03 to '07 (2007 just based on first half)
Pujols: 19, 15, 1, 8, 19
Helton: 6, 7, 14, 2, 10

Both are basically about +10 runs per seasons over that timeframe.

[brett]

Well sure, there's certainly evidence that he is. But there's also evidence to suggest that Pujols has become even better, and if he keeps up at this level will be an all-time greater (?) first baseman.

I will say that I have re-evaluated the contribution of great defensive first basemen. Based on these numbers, a guy like Keith Hernandez may have been AS VALUABLE a defensive player as an average shortstop, and if he was, he would be an automatic hall of famer. Will Clark and Don Mattingly would also get strong consideration.

Also, a lot of Colorado fans have complained that Helton was no longer valuable over the last 2 years, but a 119 and 132 OPS+ for a guy who saves enough runs to make him as valuable defensively as a solid second baseman is VERY valuable.

[philkid3]

I will say that I have re-evaluated the contribution of great defensive first basemen. Based on these numbers, a guy like Keith Hernandez may have been AS VALUABLE a defensive player as an average shortstop, and if he was, he would be an automatic hall of famer. Will Clark and Don Mattingly would also get strong consideration.

Also, a lot of Colorado fans have complained that Helton was no longer valuable over the last 2 years, but a 119 and 132 OPS+ for a guy who saves enough runs to make him as valuable defensively as a solid second baseman is VERY valuable.

I've actually come across a few reasons to believe Will Clark should be closer to borderline than he is.