Who is your 2007 AL CYA Winner?

[Mattingly]

Please vote for your 2007 AL CYA candidates.

This will be a public poll, so please remember that your username will be shown along with the candidate's name.

[hudsonharden]

This may be the toughest one out there to pick, but I'm going to have to go with C.C. You can make a very strong arguement for anyone on your list. I just wish Dan Haren and the Oakland A's hadn't fallen apart late this season. What happened to the greatest second-half team of the 21st century?

[AznInvasion]

I'm voting for CC because his 18 wins are very respectable and he has 8 ND's. Beckett has 20 wins with 3 ND's. I looked at CC's ND's and he has pitched well in all but 1 game. Cleveland's bullpen isn't quite as good as Boston's bp, therefore my vote goes to CC.

[Westlake]

Since the guy I picked in the last CY thread has really hurt his chances in the last couple starts, it's a tough one between Beckett and Sabathia. One has more IP, the other has a lower ERA in a tougher park to pitch in. Either one would be a great pick.... But i'm just going to throw some love in for Josh.

AznInvasion, what does both team's bullpens have to do with it?

EB, are you really voting for Erik Bedard?

[AznInvasion]

Since the guy I picked in the last CY thread has really hurt his chances in the last couple starts, it's a tough one between Beckett and Sabathia. One has more IP, the other has a lower ERA in a tougher park to pitch in. Either one would be a great pick.... But i'm just going to throw some love in for Josh.

AznInvasion, what does both team's bullpens have to do with it?

EB, are you really voting for Erik Bedard?

Bullpen doesn't hold a lead...the starter gets a ND. It's also fair to compare the offenses of both clubs for run support stat.

[Westlake]

Bullpen doesn't hold a lead...the starter gets a ND. It's also fair to compare the offenses of both clubs for run support stat.

So you really do use wins to decide who you would vote for?

[Zagi-CRO]

CYP W L ERA SO IP
Josh Beckett 2.40 20 6 3.14 188 194.2
C.C. Sabathia 2.64 18 7 3.19 205 234
John Lackey 2.77 18 9 3.11 177 217
Fausto Carmona 2.88 18 8 3.03 133 208
Dan Haren 3.08 15 8 3.12 186 216.2


My math says Beckett is leading. Sabathia, Lackey and Carmona could win, also.

Matt, Wang and Escobar are out of the Cy race, obviously.

[Client]

Team Record in Appearances
Carmona 22-10
Beckett 21-8
Sabathia 21-11

ERA
Carmona 3.06
Lackey 3.11

W
Beckett 20
Carmona 19

H/9 (MLB)
Beckett 8.28
Carmona 8.33
**Sabathia 8.85**

WinShares (AL)
Sabathia 22
Carmona 21
**Beckett 18**

QS
Carmona 26
Sabathia 24
Beckett 20

+6IP -2ER games
Carmona 19
Sabathia 19
Beckett 16

-----------------
Post-all-star
ERA (MLB)
Carmona 2.26
Kazmir 2.45

IP (MLB)
Halladay 116.1
Carmona 107.1

H/9 (MLB)
Peavy 6.15
Carmona 6.96
**Beckett 8.16**
**Sabathia 8.23**

WHIP (MLB)
Peavy 1.00
Webb 1.06
Carmona 1.07
--------------

[Zagi-CRO]

OK, Client.
Carmona IS the contender.
But now, Beckett has better numbers.

[AznInvasion]

So you really do use wins to decide who you would vote for?

No I look at everything on the player but the K's and ERA and stuff is very similar between the two. Not enough margin there for me to make a definitive choice. It would be dumb for anyone to base their decision just on Wins. Wouldn't I pick Beckett then?

[Westlake]

No I look at everything on the player but the K's and ERA and stuff is very similar between the two. Not enough margin there for me to make a definitive choice. It would be dumb for anyone to base their decision just on Wins. Wouldn't I pick Beckett then?

Not if you're looking at bullpens and offense to see who should have the most wins.

[TonyStarks]

Why is it that Fausto Carmona's name is hardly ever mentioned for the CYA?

[KCGHOST]

The best pitcher this year in the AL has been Erik Bedard but his injury has put him out of the race for this award.

To me it is almost a deadheat between Sabathia, Beckett, Carmona, and Lackey. I don't know how anyone can look at the numbers and come up with Beckett. When you compare Beckett and Sabathia there is very little difference in most of their stats and Sabathia has pitched 40 more innings than Beckett.

Sabathia and Carmona rank first and second in RSAA and VoRP. Their margin over Beckett and Lackey in these categories is wafer thin so you can pick anyone of then with good justification, so I am going with the extra innings.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Carmona and Santana should be added too this poll. They are easily up there with Beckett and Lackey, and I would take both over Wang.

[skyking162]

Carmona and Santana should be added too this poll. They are easily up there with Beckett and Lackey, and I would take both over Wang.

This is the second time in five minutes that ChrisLDuncan has nailed it. Bedard should be there, too. Why limit a poll to your personal top five?

This topic already has pages of discussion in another thread. Check it out. My ballot:

1. Sabathia
2a. Santana
2b. Bedard
2c. Carmona
2d. Beckett

The rest of the good seasons are a step behind those five closely bunched guys.

[AznInvasion]

Not if you're looking at bullpens and offense to see who should have the most wins.

Westlake I'm basing my decision on everything not WINS! Both are superb...I'm being unbiased here between both parties as it should be. If you look at the starts and stuff I believe CC is the better choice. You are entitled to your opinion if you think Beckett is better. Yes CC should have more wins than Beckett because the CLE bullpen either lost the lead for CC or the CLE offense didn't produce enough runs to give CC the win. Same stats can be calculated for beckett. It's a bit time consuming for me to calculate the exact figures of the situation. I can do it, if necessary, but if you get the point I won't elaborate further.

[Erik Bedard]

EB, are you really voting for Erik Bedard?

Nope. I guess I just misread the poll and thought Beckett wasn't on there, which he is. If that vote could be changed, then I'd much appreciate it. Up through August, though, Bedard had an excellent shot.

[Westlake]

Westlake I'm basing my decision on everything not WINS! Both are superb...I'm being unbiased here between both parties as it should be. If you look at the starts and stuff I believe CC is the better choice. You are entitled to your opinion if you think Beckett is better. Yes CC should have more wins than Beckett because the CLE bullpen either lost the lead for CC or the CLE offense didn't produce enough runs to give CC the win. Same stats can be calculated for beckett. It's a bit time consuming for me to calculate the exact figures of the situation. I can do it, if necessary, but if you get the point I won't elaborate further.

Woah, not trying to argue your selection, CC is a fine choice. Just seemed like your were using wins and I was just trying to figure out if that was true. Tis all.

[AznInvasion]

Woah, not trying to argue your selection, CC is a fine choice. Just seemed like your were using wins and I was just trying to figure out if that was true. Tis all.
I'm using wins as tie-breaker because the other stats are very similar. The problem with wins is that it's a function of the offense and bullpen. So if you try and look at what the pitcher did instead of what the offense and bullpen did, you eliminate the other variables. Thus you end up with 2 pitchers true win total without the other stuff.

[skyking162]

Is there any skill that Wins measures that isn't better measured by another statistic? I don't think so.

I also don't think it's effective to trot out 15 stats and treat them all equally. Some stats are more important. Take the time to figure out which ones you need to measure the total package of each pitcher. Then base your decision on those and throw out the rest.

Would you use 2B, 3B, HR, XBH, Total Bases, and SLG% to rate a hitter? No, they all pretty much measure the same thing. Use one, if you need it.

[Erik Bedard]

Wins measures how many times you wer better than the other pitcher, and the bullpen didn't screw it up.

[philkid3]

Why is Johan Santana not an option?

[philkid3]

Delete me.

[truman]

Here are the top 11 2007 AL Starters as I see them. I included the statistics that are most important to me. IP shows how often a pitcher was contributing to the team. ERA+ is probably the most important stat as it shows how well a pitcher did his job - not allowing runs - adjusted for the degree of difficulty offered by his ballpark. WHIP is essentially another way of looking at OBP against. SLG against shows how hard the pitcher was hit, when he was hit. To me, this is as important as WHIP in the same way that OBP and SLG are both important in analyzing hitters. K/9 shows both dominance and a pitchers ability to avoid BIP. K/BB shows the pitcher's ability to be dominant, yet under control. And finally, QS%, though very flawed, gives some insight into a pitcher's consistency.

Name IP ERA+ WHIP SLG K/9 K/BB QS%
E Bedard 182 141 1.088 .328 10.9 3.9 .750
F Carmona 215 145 1.209 .352 5.7 2.3 .813
J Beckett 201 139 1.141 .377 8.7 4.9 .667
CC Sabathia 234 139 1.137 .391 7.9 5.7 .727
D Haren 217 141 1.218 .398 7.7 3.5 .818
J Santana 219 133 1.073 .405 9.7 4.5 .636
J Verlander 196 122 1.237 .359 8.1 2.7 .645
J Lackey 217 139 1.240 .383 7.3 3.4 .719
K Escobar 190 125 1.271 .362 7.4 2.4 .655
R Halladay 225 125 1.243 .373 5.6 2.9 .677
CM Wang 199 117 1.294 .368 4.7 1.8 .667


OK, I have the pitchers ranked as I would vote them for CYA. Bedard's only knock is IP (14% lower than the avg of the other 10), but considering he is #1 in WHIP/SLG, #2 in ERA+ and #1 in K/9 and has done it on a very consistent basis, he's my choice.

Carmona gets the nod at #2. His WHIP is worse than Beckett or CC, but it only amounts to a little over 1/2 baserunners per 9. That is insignificant when you consider hitters slug 25bps less vs him than Beckett. This justifies his superior ERA+. His dominance is less (based on K #s) but I was surprised to see that he was the most consistant in QS.

I picked Beckett over CC based on the lower SLG against higher K/9. Tough decision, though, considering IP.

Overall, I think if you view CYA as a type of 'valuable' award, than IP carries a little more weight and CC or Carmona is the choice. If you consider CYA as 'the best pitcher' than IP is a little less important and Bedard is the choice.

Finally, I ignored relievers/closers. If I was an actual voter, I would do a comprehensive analysis on Putz, Nathan, K-Rod, Jenks and Paps and work them into the list. But I'm not going to do that.

[Doctor Zizmor]

CC should should win it...but the pitcher most valuable to their team is wang

[truman]

I think its a travesty to include Wang in any CYA discussion without pointing out that Carmona is the same type of pitcher (sinker, groundball pitcher) and has better numbers in every single category (tied in wins).

[Doctor Zizmor]

I think its a travesty to include Wang in any CYA discussion without pointing out that Carmona is the same type of pitcher (sinker, groundball pitcher) and has better numbers in every single category (tied in wins).well, wang also missed a month with a hamstring injury and he still had a very good year. Yes, Carmona has had a better year and Id vot for him over wang, but wang desereves to be on the ballot. Like I said, out of all the candidates, Wang was most valuable to his team

[Westlake]

well, wang also missed a month with a hamstring injury and he still had a very good year. Yes, Carmona has had a better year and Id vot for him over wang, but wang desereves to be on the ballot. Like I said, out of all the candidates, Wang was most valuable to his team

No, he doesn't really deserve to be on the ballot over some of the more deserving people not on the list. He's not even one of the top 10 pitchers in the league.

Wang more valuable to his team? There's absolutely no way you can prove that because it's absolutely not true. Sabathia has been MUCH better than Wang this year, therefor more valuable. "But without Wang the Yankees blah blah blah" -- Well without Sabathia the Indians probably would be in the playoffs either, so don't go that route. Without Beckett the Sox would be battling for a WC spot, ect...

Even then, this isn't the MVPitcher award, and if it was, Wang would be far from deserving.

[Doctor Zizmor]

No, he doesn't really deserve to be on the ballot over some of the more deserving people not on the list. He's not even one of the top 10 pitchers in the league.

Wang more valuable to his team? There's absolutely no way you can prove that because it's absolutely not true. Sabathia has been MUCH better than Wang this year, therefor more valuable. "But without Wang the Yankees blah blah blah" -- Well without Sabathia the Indians probably would be in the playoffs either, so don't go that route. Without Beckett the Sox would be battling for a WC spot, ect...

Even then, this isn't the MVPitcher award, and if it was, Wang would be far from deserving.

I get it, you hate wang and the yankees. just post that every time and we'll be fine. Im sick of having the same debates with you. I like wang, you dont; lets just leave it at that

[philkid3]

I get it, you hate wang and the yankees. just post that every time and we'll be fine. Im sick of having the same debates with you. I like wang, you dont; lets just leave it at that

Why does he have to hate Wang and the Yankees? I don't hate Wang and the Yankees and I don't think Wang belongs on that list ahead of a bunch of other guys. Why does fandom have to come into this?

And why should he leave it at that? Isn't the point of a message board discussion and debate?

[Westlake]

I get it, you hate wang and the yankees. just post that every time and we'll be fine. Im sick of having the same debates with you. I like wang, you dont; lets just leave it at that

No, I don't hate Wang at all. I've posted before that he, Cano, and Proctor are all Yankees that I couldn't dislike even if I wanted to. If you're sick of having debates about Wang, then stop posting things that you can't back up whatsoever, instead of thinking that everyone is going to accept whatever your fandom makes you say.

[skyking162]

Wins measures how many times you were better than the other pitcher, and the bullpen didn't screw it up.

Is this in support of the Win stat or against it?

What's involved in being "better than the other pitcher, and the bullpen not screwing it up"? Your pitching talent, your bullpen's talent, the opposing lineup's hitting talent, the opposing pitcher's talent, his bullpen's talent, your lineup's hitting talent. That's six factors and only one involves your pitcher's talent, which is what we're trying to judge. There are many ways to judge pitcher talent other than Wins. Just stick with the other ways.

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Some people are "smart" enough to be born rich, and some pitchers are "good" enough to be on the mound when their team scores 7 runs for them.

[Erik Bedard]

Is this in support of the Win stat or against it?

What's involved in being "better than the other pitcher, and the bullpen not screwing it up"? Your pitching talent, your bullpen's talent, the opposing lineup's hitting talent, the opposing pitcher's talent, his bullpen's talent, your lineup's hitting talent. That's six factors and only one involves your pitcher's talent, which is what we're trying to judge. There are many ways to judge pitcher talent other than Wins. Just stick with the other ways.

Against it. I hate wins, and I'd like things so much better if they weren't even kept as a stat. You've basically summed up my extended process of thought, but there's one more thing that I'd like to point out. Wins (and also saves) measure how many times, not how well.

[Zagi-CRO]

Josh Beckett 2.54 20 7 3.27 194 200.2 4.85
C.C. Sabathia 2.67 18 7 3.19 205 234 5.69
Fausto Carmona 2.79 19 8 3.06 137 215 2.25
John Lackey 2.79 18 9 3.11 177 217 3.40


Four contenders - Beckett, Sabathia, Carmona and Lackey.
Maybe Sabathia!?

[philkid3]

Josh Beckett 2.54 20 7 3.27 194 200.2 4.85
C.C. Sabathia 2.67 18 7 3.19 205 234 5.69
Fausto Carmona 2.79 19 8 3.06 137 215 2.25
John Lackey 2.79 18 9 3.11 177 217 3.40


Four contenders - Beckett, Sabathia, Carmona and Lackey.
Maybe Sabathia!?

And Santana. ;)

[slugger33]

Where is Carmona? He is my Cy Young.

[truman]

Here are the end of season stats:

Name IP ERA+ WHIP SLG K/9 K/BB QS% OPS+
E Bedard 182 141 1.088 .328 10.9 3.9 .750 62
F Carmona 215 145 1.209 .352 5.7 2.3 .813 75
J Beckett 201 139 1.141 .377 8.7 4.9 .667 74
CC Sabathia 241 138 1.141 .392 7.8 5.6 .735 80
J Lackey 224 144 1.210 .375 7.2 3.4 .727 79
D Haren 223 143 1.208 .396 7.7 3.5 .818 80
J Santana 219 133 1.073 .405 9.7 4.5 .636 77
J Verlander 202 122 1.230 .358 8.2 2.7 .656 77
K Escobar 196 127 1.267 .358 7.3 2.4 .667 77
R Halladay 225 125 1.243 .373 5.6 2.9 .677 79
CM Wang 199 117 1.294 .368 4.7 1.8 .667 83
S Kazmir 207 132 1.379 .380 10.4 2.7 .559 88
G Meche 216 131 1.296 .397 6.5 2.5 .676 87


Bedard, Carmona, Beckett, CC, Lackey in that order.
Bedard was just dominating this year. Despite only pitching 180 innings, its (just) enough to give him the nod. HIs OPS+ against is 13 better than 2nd best!

[philkid3]

1) C.C. Sabathia
2) Johan Santana
3) Fausto Carmona
4) J.J. Putz
5) Josh Beckett
6) John Lackey
7) Rafael Betancourt
8) Roy Halladay
9) Erik Bedard
10) Dan Haren

[Zagi-CRO]

The starters:


Josh Beckett 2.59 20 7 3.27 194 200.2 30
C.C. Sabathia 2.59 19 7 3.21 209 241 34
John Lackey 2.62 19 9 3.01 179 224 33
Fausto Carmona 2.83 19 8 3.06 137 215 32
Dan Haren 3.10 15 9 3.07 192 222.2 34
Kelvim Escobar 3.10 18 7 3.40 160 195.2 30
Erik Bedard 3.16 13 5 3.16 221 182 28
Jus Verlander 3.18 18 6 3.66 183 201.2 32
Johan Santana 3.24 15 13 3.33 235 219 33
Scott Kazmir 3.46 13 9 3.48 239 206.2 34


Finnaly a dead race!! Beckett or Sabathia!!

[Colorado Express]

As much as I hate to say it, I have to vote for Sabathia.

[Cod]

I want Sabathia to win it, but Beckett will likely win it just because of the team he plays fr and the town he plays in.

[The Splendid Splinter]

Beckett probably will win cuz he got the magical "20" wins...

as far as for my vote... i can't decide...