Expectations for Matsuzaka next year

[Senor Octobre]

Well, Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a bit more disappointing season than I expected, but he's not far off from what I expected (for the record, I expected him to have about 15-17 wins, an ERA around 4.00 and 200+ strikeouts). So while he's been abit more shakey than what I'd anticipated, I'm certainly not too surprised by the results. The question to me is, what can we expect from this guy next year (Control-wise, Stamina-wise, etc)? I still think he has the potential (scary word, i know) to be one of the better pitchers in the AL for a long time, but that all depends on if he puts it together. Feedback?

[DickZ]

Well, Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a bit more disappointing season than I expected, but he's not far off from what I expected (for the record, I expected him to have about 15-17 wins, an ERA around 4.00 and 200+ strikeouts). So while he's been abit more shakey than what I'd anticipated, I'm certainly not too surprised by the results. The question to me is, what can we expect from this guy next year (Control-wise, Stamina-wise, etc)? I still think he has the potential (scary word, i know) to be one of the better pitchers in the AL for a long time, but that all depends on if he puts it together. Feedback?
I would think that given the money it took to get him and keep him, he will have to be a lot more than just "one of the better pitchers" in the AL. I suppose there's some way of making cost-effectiveness comparisons with other pitchers, and while I'm not into that stuff, I'm sure we have lots of guys here who are.

[KCGHOST]

He has had a good campaign for a rookie. Maybe not what you expect for however many $M's he cost, but a good campaign nonetheless. He has a great K/9, a good K/BB (2.5:1), a good BR/9, and a league average HR/9 rate. That projects very well.

I am concerned that the last 6-7 weeks he has been awful. Hopefully that is just fatigue.

[brose3312]

I think that Dice K could be a 18-20 game winner in the future. I think that the major league season has taken a toll on him, as it does with all rookie pitchers which he is. The argument that he is 27 and a veteran in Japan is separate from the fact that this is first year in MLB. There is a big difference. I also think that with a full year of experience under his belt he will improve. Next year he will have had a year to work with Varitek and Farrell, surely there have been some communication issues at some point. Next year he will have the benefit of facing hitters several times. I also think that this year he is completely Dependant on his fastball. Once he is more comfortable with his environment I would think he would open up his arsenal even more.
Everyone wants to harp on the 101 million and say he should be a 20 game winner. Salary, as with all players, needs to be set aside. No one ever hit 30 homeruns or got 20 wins just because they got a large contract.

[Matt1901]

No one ever hit 30 homeruns or got 20 wins just because they got a large contract.Just ask J.D. Drew.

[Westlake]

I would think that given the money it took to get him and keep him, he will have to be a lot more than just "one of the better pitchers" in the AL. I suppose there's some way of making cost-effectiveness comparisons with other pitchers, and while I'm not into that stuff, I'm sure we have lots of guys here who are.

Yup! He's making less money than Barry Zito and Roger Clemens on a per year basis. :)

[Mike D.]

I think that, barring injury, Dice-K will only get better. He's not only learning the league and the hitters this year, but dealing with a longer season than he's played in Japan, cultural differences, the heavy media attention both here and in Japan, and I'm sure lots of other little things that add up.

Next year, he'll have a year under his belt, know the hitters a bit better, probably have a better idea on how to condition himself for the long season and deep lineups (so he can pitch well both later in the season and deeper into games), and hopefully just be more adjusted to the lifestyle, both of the US in general and US baseball.

I mean little things probably take a lot of adjustments...like in Japan, they don't take 3,000 flights to play series (like the Sox do when going ot the west coast).

I mean, look at the adjustment year Josh Beckett had coming to the AL, and he was an established NL pitcher.

[BoSox Rule]

Currently, we should be very happy with what we've gotten from Matsuzaka. His ERA for the whole season is 4.41, but that isn't really indicative of the pitcher he's been for us this season. The wheels have been coming off due to him not throwing all his pitches for whatever reason and the fact that the workload is much tougher than Japan. Through August 22, his ERA was 3.76, since then it is 9.90. He did just have a respectable start against the Yankees with a few too many walks. I think he'll be much better next year with the rest in the offseason after the workload he's never had to endure. Plus all the adjustments of the new country and whatnot.

[PhilWings24]

My Expectations:

3.65-3.80 ERA
200K
60BB
200+ IP

His biggest problem has been consistency. He's been god-awful in some games, untouchable in others. And it seems like consistency is one of the main things people tend to pick up with experience; he has a new routine, heis in a new country, it seems like it might be hard to find your footing.

But when he's been on this year, he's been outstanding. He's just been equally horrible at times, and seems to be tiring. It seems like that's something that should largely correct itself next season.

As for this season, i will admit i've been dissapointed, but again, consistency has been the ONLY issue, as far as i'm concerned. and i'd expect any player coming to a new country to gain consistency in his second season.