Denny McLain

[rdonahue]

Now clearly Denny McLain is nowhere near worthy of election to the HOF, but I've always wondered something:


Through age 25 McLain had a career record of 114-57.
He had put together 5 consecutive 16+ win seasons including 20, 24, and 31.
He had 1098 strikeouts
He also had 93 CGs and 26 shutouts.
He had also won 2 Cy Young awards and an MVP.
He was a 3-time All-Star.

If he wouldn't have screwed everything up, was he on track to be a HOFer? I know he was still fairly young, but he had accomplished quite a bit even for the era. He won 24 games in 1969 - the year after the mound was lowered.

[leecemark]

--Of course he was on a Hall of Fame pace. If he could have just had another 3-4 decent seasons after 1969 he would have a strong case. The 30 win season and back to back CYAs is a very solid foundation. It was only his complete self destruction at such a young age that rules him out as a candidate.

[rdonahue]

That's what I kind of figured. It was all before my time but as a Tigers fan I always liked McLain (even though really I shouldn't...)

[KCGHOST]

I guess I don't think so at all. His demise wasn't so much because he screwed things up, but that he stopped being effective. You should realize that in his ten-year career his RSAA was only above league average 3 times.

[Freakshow]

Leading Win Pct, 1200+ IP, Through Age-25 Season Since 1918

Player Name W L Pct IP
Dwight Gooden 119 46 0.721 1524
Denny McLain 114 57 0.667 1501
Bob Feller 107 54 0.665 1449
Dizzy Dean 97 52 0.651 1225
Vida Blue 92 54 0.630 1368
Wes Ferrell 102 62 0.622 1322
Robin Roberts 91 57 0.615 1323
Pete Donohue 103 67 0.606 1443
Bret Saberhagen 92 61 0.601 1329
Milt Pappas 97 65 0.599 1411
Fernando Valenzuela 99 68 0.593 1555
Hal Newhouser 114 79 0.591 1609
Don Drysdale 104 73 0.588 1630

[PVNICK]

Not much of a predictor for the HOF, is it. Only 5/13 seems low to me.

[Freakshow]

Not much of a predictor for the HOF, is it. Only 5/13 seems low to me.
Right. And it gets worse as you go down the list; only two of the next 16 are in the Hall: Eckersley, Tanana, Branca, Dierker, W. Hoyt, Uhle, Harder, M. Witt, Mungo, French, Coleman, Chance, Simmons, S. McDowell, Holtzman, Blyleven.

(I have an old database, so someone may have joined this list in the past decade.)

[Chickazoola]

He developed arm troubles from being overworked, and got fat. That's why he stopped being effective.

If he was even average for a few seasons and got about 150 wins ala Dizzy Dean he would be in.

[catbox_9]

It's too bad he and Lolich couldn't trade 1968-69 seasons. That would put Lolich in for sure (especially if you let Lolich keep his postseason heroics in 1968)...

[penneyAA]

Leading Win Pct, 1200+ IP, Through Age-25 Season Since 1918

Player Name W L Pct IP
Dwight Gooden 119 46 0.721 1524
Denny McLain 114 57 0.667 1501
Bob Feller 107 54 0.665 1449
Dizzy Dean 97 52 0.651 1225
Vida Blue 92 54 0.630 1368
Wes Ferrell 102 62 0.622 1322
Robin Roberts 91 57 0.615 1323
Pete Donohue 103 67 0.606 1443
Bret Saberhagen 92 61 0.601 1329
Milt Pappas 97 65 0.599 1411
Fernando Valenzuela 99 68 0.593 1555
Hal Newhouser 114 79 0.591 1609
Don Drysdale 104 73 0.588 1630


This group averaged 91-81 after age 25

[jalbright]

This whole discussion fits well into the theory propounded by Craig Wright in The Diamond Appraised, which is that if you want a pitcher to last, be very careful with them before age 24. On the other hand, if you want to have them fall short of what their talent suggests they could achieve in their careers, work them hard before age 24, says Wright.

[leecemark]

--That made sense in the old days. If I was running a club now though I'd squeeze everything I could out of a guy before he was elibigle for free agency. I think for Mclain, like Gooden, its hard to determine just how much of their decline was due to overuse and how much due to their personal shortcomings (some of both for sure). McLain was never the same after his half season supension in 1970. The extra rest definately didn't help (and he was suspended twice more after returning).
--I was a 10 year old Tiger fan sweating out out that suspension and assuming Denny would magically lift the Tigers back to the top when he returned. Sadly the magic was gone and the rest of McLain's life has been one disaster after another. Mostly self inflicted disaters.

[jalbright]

--That made sense in the old days. If I was running a club now though I'd squeeze everything I could out of a guy before he was elibigle for free agency.

I would be less concerned about the player's future than I would have been if I felt I owned it for the rest of his career. Certainly, today when you've got a young ace and you're in a pennant (or wild card) race, you squeeze as hard as you dare and hope to get away with it. But if you're out of the playoff hunt, squeezing too hard can only bring more headaches, so even then there's reason to be careful. Of course, with the wild card, it takes a lot longer to get to the point where you're clearly out of the running.

[Fuzzy Bear]

McLain was an extreme control pitcher; he let batters put the ball in play. His ERA was just a hair under league average, and he had many years where his ERA was around a half run OVER league average. Even in his 1st 20 win season, 1966, Denny McLain's ERA was 0.45 over league.

1965, 1968, and 1969 were great seasons for McLain, but pitchers of his type rarely last.

[leecemark]

--They usually don't implode as quickly as McLain though. He was of the Robin Roberts school of pitching, although Roberts was better (as both a pitcher and - even more so - a person). Roberts followed his 1/2 career of greatness with another 1/2 career as a mediocore inning eater. McLain probably could have done the same and quite possibly made the Hall of Fame if he had been more dedicated to the game and less of a loser off the field.

[jimaxe]

This whole discussion fits well into the theory propounded by Craig Wright in The Diamond Appraised, which is that if you want a pitcher to last, be very careful with them before age 24. On the other hand, if you want to have them fall short of what their talent suggests they could achieve in their careers, work them hard before age 24, says Wright.


Tanana is another example of this. He was the AL's most dominant lefty for 3 years until he pitched 14 straight complete games in '77 at age 23. He completely lost his fastball and reinvented himself as a junk baller. Played 21 seasons, but was very average after the injury. McLain was a great pitcher, but is possibly the sleaziest person to play baseball in my lifetime.

[Cougar]

14 straight!! That's like 19th century usage!

If you look at the game-logs on B-R.com, 1976 was much the same.

Norm Sherry took over the Angels on July 23, 1976 and was fired on July 11, 1977.

He removed Tanana from games before extra innings, if I count right, only 5 times in that span.

The butcher singlehandedly destroyed a singular talent.

[PVNICK]

Tanana is another example of this. He was the AL's most dominant lefty for 3 years until he pitched 14 straight complete games in '77 at age 23. He completely lost his fastball and reinvented himself as a junk baller. Played 21 seasons, but was very average after the injury. McLain was a great pitcher, but is possibly the sleaziest person to play baseball in my lifetime. I know Tanana "changed" by or during 1978. Did he get hurt mid-season or was it from the start of the season?

[Freakshow]

In 1955, former pitching great Bucky Walters wrote:

"Maybe it's time to revise pitching standards, and not expect a man to complete half or three-quarters of the games he starts."

BTW, Walters had the highest CG% of his era, 60.8%, completing 242 of his 398 starts. Even into the 1970's, many managers expected their ace starter to go the distance.

Highest CG%, single season, 1969-80, age <25, minimum 15 CG:

82.8%, 24 CG, 1976 Mark Fidrych, age 21
67.6%, 23 CG, 1976 Frank Tanana, age 22
64.5%, 20 CG, 1977 Frank Tanana, age 23
62.5%, 25 CG, 1973 Bert Blyleven, age 22
62.5%, 20 CG, 1980 Matt Keough, age 24
61.5%, 24 CG, 1971 Vida Blue, age 21
57.1%, 20 CG, 1975 Bert Blyleven, age 24
57.1%, 16 CG, 1977 Dave Rozema, age 20
54.1%, 20 CG, 1969 Larry Dierker, age 22
52.6%, 20 CG, 1974 Steve Busby, age 24
51.7%, 15 CG, 1976 Goose Gossage, age 24
51.5%, 17 CG, 1979 Dennis Eckersley, age 24
51.4%, 18 CG, 1969 Tom Seaver, age 24
51.4%, 19 CG, 1974 Bert Blyleven, age 23
50.0%, 15 CG, 1971 Steve Kline, age 23
48.5%, 16 CG, 1975 Frank Tanana, age 21
47.2%, 17 CG, 1978 Lary Sorensen, age 22
47.2%, 17 CG, 1970 Larry Dierker, age 23
47.1%, 16 CG, 1979 Lary Sorensen, age 23
46.2%, 18 CG, 1979 Dennis Martinez, age 24

[PVNICK]

Other than Blyleven, Seaver, Blue and Dennis Martinez the rest were all shot, moved to or back to the bullpen or never approached that type of success again. As much as I and many others may bemoan the Joba Rules, pitch counts, lack of CG, 6 inning starters and such, every time this sort of topic comes up no matter how the numbers are posted the results seem the same.

[lovethegame]

Denny is my biggest disappointment as a player.
He had it ALL
He was a great great hurler but unfortunately he was a bigger jerk then he was a pitcher.
He could today own the USA but he'd rather strongarm some gooch for a few hundred back in his hey day.
Sam McDowell could at least fall back on alcoholism ,Denny was merely a fool

[jimaxe]

I know Tanana "changed" by or during 1978. Did he get hurt mid-season or was it from the start of the season?

From 4/29/77 - 7/3/77, Tanana pitched 14 straight complete games. Following the last one, he couldn't raise his arm. He made his next 2 starts, but came out early. He then missed 2 starts and pitched 1 inning in the next one. Pitched well the rest of the year, although I believe his fastball had lost some speed. The next year, his strikeouts dropped from 205 to 137 and his ERA jumped a run per game. Amazingly, he won 18 games in '78, but that was probably because the hitters were in shock seeing him throw slow junk up there. An amazing pitcher.