Will the Yanks catch Boston?

[Hank Parks]

I say it's possible

[BaseballRookie]

if the yankees go 8-3 and the sox go 5-5 or 4-6. we can win the division.

[ChrisLDuncan]

In a word: NO

[Yankwood]

I don't see why not. Look at the Red Sox lineup. Without Manny it isn't all that good and when he gets back, it might take a couple games for him to look like the real Manny. The bullpen looks terrible right now and Beckett's about the only really reliable starter. Schilling, who looks fat and old with his 8 wins and 4 ERA, is a run of the mill pitcher. Dice-K is shot. Wakefield, with an ERA that looks more like the Dow Jones Avg. has already gotten about 6 wins more than he deserves and he's on borrowed time. This team is in FREEEEEEEEE FALLLLLLLLLLLL

[DoubleX]

I think this could be a case of the season ending just in time for the Sox. Give the Yankees an extra week and I think they could pull it off. The Sox have 10 games left, the Yankees have 11. If the Sox go merely .500, 5-5, the Yankees would have to go 8-3. The Yankees could certainly go 8-3, but I'd be surprised if the Sox go 5-5.

[Doctor Zizmor]

like Ive been saying for weeks now, its not probable, but it is certainly possible. Could be 1978 all over again with the sox missing the playoffs

[TonyStarks]

Possible.....

And I would love nothing more than to NOT have to face the Angels in Rd 1.

Plus some of the Yankee bats have been kinda quiet...even with the huge outbursts: ARod, Matsui, Jeter, Cabrera are all mired in mini-slumps.

This does worry me to a certain degree.

[Doctor Zizmor]

Possible.....

And I would love nothing more than to NOT have to face the Angels in Rd 1.

Plus some of the Yankee bats have been kinda quiet...even with the huge outbursts: ARod, Matsui, Jeter, Cabrera are all mired in mini-slumps.

This does worry me to a certain degree.if things ended today, we'd play the Indians not the Angels............with that said, I dont care what team we play.

[TonyStarks]

if things ended today, we'd play the Indians not the Angels............with that said, I dont care what team we play.

I don't want to see the Angels at all in a 5 Game series.
I don't mind playing the Indians, but I know better....last year I wanted to face Detroit and what a mistake that turned out to be. :laugh

[KCGHOST]

The BoSox are in an offensive freefall so unless Manny comes back soon I'd say it is very possible. Without him their lineup is not imposing at all. If the Sox go 5-5 and the Yanks go 8-3 they would end up tied with the Yanks owning the tie breaker.

Both teams have 3 games at Tampa Bay. Probably the biggest difference in their schedules is the Yanks have four with the Orioles (1 home, 3 away) while the Sox have the Twins at home for 4 games. Other than that the Yanks have Toronto at the stadium for four games while the Sox have one game at Toronto and two at home against the A's.

Note the Sox have seven games against teams with competent pitching while the Yanks only have four.

And no matter how it comes out does anyone really think the this Red Sox team could beat the Yanks in the post-season??

[redoct11]

I don't see why not. Look at the Red Sox lineup. Without Manny it isn't all that good and when he gets back, it might take a couple games for him to look like the real Manny. The bullpen looks terrible right now and Beckett's about the only really reliable starter. Schilling, who looks fat and old with his 8 wins and 4 ERA, is a run of the mill pitcher. Dice-K is shot. Wakefield, with an ERA that looks more like the Dow Jones Avg. has already gotten about 6 wins more than he deserves and he's on borrowed time. This team is in FREEEEEEEEE FALLLLLLLLLLLL

Speak your bias views to yourself. The Yankees pitching is still just as horrible as it was in the first half. I made a chart to prove this (http://www.angelfire.com/winsox/nyy2007secondhalf.html). Have fun trying to win in the first round.

[redoct11]

And no matter how it comes out does anyone really think the this Red Sox team could beat the Yanks in the post-season??

Well they did wipe the floor clean with the Yankees top 2 in Pettitte and Wang over the weekend so yeah, I'd say if it comes down to pitching the Red Sox definately have the edge.

[Yankwood]

Speak your bias views to yourself. The Yankees pitching is still just as horrible as it was in the first half. I made a chart to prove this (http://www.angelfire.com/winsox/nyy2007secondhalf.html). Have fun trying to win in the first round.That's some good proof you have there. You guys have Gagne, we have Joba. You didn't figure on that did you? :laugh For some reason the Red Sox can't win and the Yankees have turned it around. The PROOF, as they say, is in the pudding, or in this case, on the field. Not on a chart.

[DoubleX]

Well they did wipe the floor clean with the Yankees top 2 in Pettitte and Wang over the weekend so yeah, I'd say if it comes down to pitching the Red Sox definately have the edge.

And yet the Yankees still won 2 of the 3 weekend games and 8 of the last 10 against the Sox. And if you think the Sox have had good successs against the Yankees top two pitchers, look at what the Yankees have done against the Sox top 4 this year:

Beckett: 4.39 ERA and .303 BAA in 26.2 IP
Schilling: 5.51 ERA and .311 BAA in 32.2 IP
Matsuzaka: 6.12 ERA and .240 BAA in 25 IP
Wakefield: 10.93 ERA and .333 BAA in 14 IP

Compare to what the Yankees top four have done (including Mussina here, though it could be Hughes or Kennedy in a 7-game series):

Wang: 4.11 ERA and .275 BAA in 30.2 I
Pettitte: 5.24 ERA and .321 BAA in 34.1 IP
Clemens: 0.75 ERA and .103 BAA in 12 IP
Mussina: 9.26 ERA and .396 BAA in 11.2 IP

It looks pretty close to me with the Yankees looking slightly better head-to-head. Looking at these numbers, it's clear that the Yankees have had good success against the Sox top 4, so I'm not so sure at all that starting pitching is much of an edge for the Sox in a head-to-head series with the Yankees.

[MLB2k7]

it would be meaningless even if Yanks beat Sox to win the division because Sox has been playing without its best player.

[TonyStarks]

it would be meaningless even if Yanks beat Sox to win the division because Sox has been playing without its best player.

Even when Manny was in the Lineup the Yanks still managed to win the series.

[Yankwood]

it would be meaningless even if Yanks beat Sox to win the division because Sox has been playing without its best player.And it's certainly not "meaningless" to have an extra home game. You take 'em any way you get 'em.

[redoct11]

That's some good proof you have there. You guys have Gagne, we have Joba. You didn't figure on that did you? :laugh For some reason the Red Sox can't win and the Yankees have turned it around. The PROOF, as they say, is in the pudding, or in this case, on the field. Not on a chart.

Ok, since you couldn't read a simple chart I'll just use ERA to make my point:

1st Half: 4.36
2nd Half: 4.59


So how's that pitching going to shape up in the playoffs there?

[redoct11]

And yet the Yankees still won 2 of the 3 weekend games and 8 of the last 10 against the Sox. And if you think the Sox have had good successs against the Yankees top two pitchers, look at what the Yankees have done against the Sox top 4 this year:

Beckett: 4.39 ERA and .303 BAA in 26.2 IP
Schilling: 5.51 ERA and .311 BAA in 32.2 IP
Matsuzaka: 6.12 ERA and .240 BAA in 25 IP
Wakefield: 10.93 ERA and .333 BAA in 14 IP

Compare to what the Yankees top four have done (including Mussina here, though it could be Hughes or Kennedy in a 7-game series):

Wang: 4.11 ERA and .275 BAA in 30.2 I
Pettitte: 5.24 ERA and .321 BAA in 34.1 IP
Clemens: 0.75 ERA and .103 BAA in 12 IP
Mussina: 9.26 ERA and .396 BAA in 11.2 IP

It looks pretty close to me with the Yankees looking slightly better head-to-head. Looking at these numbers, it's clear that the Yankees have had good success against the Sox top 4, so I'm not so sure at all that starting pitching is much of an edge for the Sox in a head-to-head series with the Yankees.

The only problem here is that these two teams will not meet head to head in the ALCS this year.

[Westlake]

like Ive been saying for weeks now, its not probable, but it is certainly possible. Could be 1978 all over again with the sox missing the playoffs

Please tell me how the sox are missing the playoffs.


Even when Manny was in the Lineup the Yanks still managed to win the series.

Red Sox are 7-6 against the Yankees with Manny in the lineup. Not saying this means much, but missing Manny IS a big deal.

"The only problem here is that these two teams will not meet head to head in the ALCS this year." -- Talking trash in their forum isn't a great idea.

[Evangelion]

The BoSox are in an offensive freefall so unless Manny comes back soon I'd say it is very possible. Without him their lineup is not imposing at all. If the Sox go 5-5 and the Yanks go 8-3 they would end up tied with the Yanks owning the tie breaker.

Both teams have 3 games at Tampa Bay. Probably the biggest difference in their schedules is the Yanks have four with the Orioles (1 home, 3 away) while the Sox have the Twins at home for 4 games. Other than that the Yanks have Toronto at the stadium for four games while the Sox have one game at Toronto and two at home against the A's.

Note the Sox have seven games against teams with competent pitching while the Yanks only have four.

And no matter how it comes out does anyone really think the this Red Sox team could beat the Yanks in the post-season??
You are aware Boston just faced two pitchers who have been pitching quite well. A healthy A.J. Burnett shouldn't be looked down upon and Dustin McGowan been quite effective since the break. Boston not in a free fall, it's more like they're facing off against good pitching and being shut down. While that's not good, I do hate the fact the people try to place the majority of the blame of the offense struggle and not giving enough due credit to opponent's pitching staff.


Even when Manny was in the Lineup the Yanks still managed to win the series.
You did go 4-1 without Manny in the lineup. While New York did win the series, it shouldn't be ignored that Boston offense didn't look great during the five games they played without Manny excluding last Saturday game. Still, not one Boston fan or player would use that as a excuse for Boston defeating them. Fact would remain New York beat Boston badly since Boston took the first 5 of 6 from New York.

[Yankeefan90]

I think the yankees have a great shot at winning the Division. But do I think they will, no. I really think the Sox will get hot again at the end, and once Manny gets back the Sox lineup will be potent even if he's not hitting well. Why? because he'll have Ortiz hitting hitting in front of him and nobody will walk Ortiz just because Manny is finding his groove, you want him to find his groove with men off the base. With Manny behind Ortiz as protection, Ortiz will start to hit the ball well (not like he isn't), but he'll see alot of good pitches.

[mikeymussina35]

I think the Yanks have a good shot at winning the East, but I will make my yes or no decision after they play Toronto for the 4 game set. They will be facing, Halladay, Marcum, McGowan, and Burnett. If they can sweep or take 3 out of 4, then I believe they have a great shot at winning it. But they MUST take 4 or 5/6 of the last games against Baltimore and TB. The Sox play TB this weekend and Friday and then the finish the season playing Oakland and Minnesota. It is imperative the Yanks beat up on the Jays this weekend. IMPERATIVE!

[ssbguyincognito]

Ok, since you couldn't read a simple chart I'll just use ERA to make my point:

1st Half: 4.36
2nd Half: 4.59


So how's that pitching going to shape up in the playoffs there?

First, that's a really elementary and irrelevant "chart". Are you 13 years old?

Anyway, I'm going to assume you are a Red Sox fan. Your team doesn't scare me at all. Your strength is your starting pitching, and as has been shown, the Yankees rock all your starters (and your relief pitchers too!).

I'm not guaranteeing a Yankee victory if we faced int he ALCS, but I fear the Angels and the Indians much more than your team. The Red Sox have a lot of weaknesses. Okajima and Matsuzaka are just too fatigued at this point int he season to be of any value. Your starting shortstop is Julio Lugo.

[Westlake]

First, that's a really elementary and irrelevant "chart". Are you 13 years old?

Anyway, I'm going to assume you are a Red Sox fan. Your team doesn't scare me at all. Your strength is your starting pitching, and as has been shown, the Yankees rock all your starters (and your relief pitchers too!).

I'm not guaranteeing a Yankee victory if we faced int he ALCS, but I fear the Angels and the Indians much more than your team. The Red Sox have a lot of weaknesses. Okajima and Matsuzaka are just too fatigued at this point int he season to be of any value. Your starting shortstop is Julio Lugo.

Talk about elementary...

"Your strength is your starting pitching, and as has been shown, the Yankees rock all your starters" -- Yeah, Yankees totally rocked the Sox starters this past weekend.

[ssbguyincognito]

Talk about elementary...

"Your strength is your starting pitching, and as has been shown, the Yankees rock all your starters" -- Yeah, Yankees totally rocked the Sox starters this past weekend.

Okay. Just look at the post where it shows how the Red Sox starters have done against the Yankees this season. Sure, last weekend, we didn't crush your guys, but we did well against all of them, except for Beckett.

[Westlake]

Okay. Just look at the post where it shows how the Red Sox starters have done against the Yankees this season. Sure, last weekend, we didn't crush your guys, but we did well against all of them, except for Beckett.

Right, seen that. But what does a start a month ago mean when that starter did well just last week?

I'm not saying that the Sox are going to shut ANYONE down, but I wouln't bet the farm that the Yanks are going to rake them either.

[TonyStarks]

Please tell me how the sox are missing the playoffs.



Red Sox are 7-6 against the Yankees with Manny in the lineup. Not saying this means much, but missing Manny IS a big deal.

"The only problem here is that these two teams will not meet head to head in the ALCS this year." -- Talking trash in their forum isn't a great idea.

I know a Manny-less Boston lineup is not as strong, but my argument was towards his comment saying the wins didn't have as much meaning since ManRam wasn't playing.

[Westlake]

I know a Manny-less Boston lineup is not as strong, but my argument was towards his comment saying the wins didn't have as much meaning since ManRam wasn't playing.

Well you're right in that aspect, Manny may or may not have had a hand in the outcome of those games.. but he's only one player. Those games still meant a lot.

[PVNICK]

Now it's no Manny and no Youkilis and his .288, .392, .456 to bat 2nd, 5th or 6th and play what many people on this board think is a GG 1B. Instead you have Eric Hinske cluttering up the bottom of the order with .215, .332, .459. Probably a coincidence that since Youkilis went out the offense has hit a dry spot, but 2 of your 4 best offensive players (Manny, OPrtiz, Lowell, Youkilis) will take a toll.

[DoubleX]

The only problem here is that these two teams will not meet head to head in the ALCS this year.

In general though, I'm not so sure about the strength of Boston's pitching after Beckett. Schilling is a competitor so he might be able to summon some of his old game in a big start, but in general, he looks to be about a 5 inning pitcher now. Matsuzaka looked good last weekend, but in general, he's looked tired for the past month or so, and it's not that surprising considering he's dealing with new rigors over here. Buchholz seems like a good bet to continue starting, but that might be curtailed by the Sox desire to be overly cautious with him. Wakefield has proven to be very hittable. Then we get to the bullpen - the Sox pen has been in shambles recently. Okajima looks tired, Gagne is terrible, and even Papelbon has been getting hit around.

[ssbguyincognito]

Right, seen that. But what does a start a month ago mean when that starter did well just last week?

I'm not saying that the Sox are going to shut ANYONE down, but I wouln't bet the farm that the Yanks are going to rake them either.

I hope no Yankee fan assumes we can beat the Red Sox in the playofffs because I sure don't.

But if we objectively look at each team's strengths and weaknesses against each other, the Yankees do have a slight edge. That's also indicated by how we went 8-2 in our last 10 games. In the beginning of the season, you guys beat up on Chase Wright, Kei Igawa, and Karstens. Those fools are long gone. Right now, our three of Wang, Pettite, and Clemens does about as well, if not a little better, against you than Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Schilling do against us. Also, our offense is clearly a lot better. And with Joba Chamberlain, our pen might be a little better too.

[Doctor Zizmor]

I hope no Yankee fan assumes we can beat the Red Sox in the playofffs because I sure don't.

But if we objectively look at each team's strengths and weaknesses against each other, the Yankees do have a slight edge. That's also indicated by how we went 8-2 in our last 10 games. In the beginning of the season, you guys beat up on Chase Wright, Kei Igawa, and Karstens. Those fools are long gone. Right now, our three of Wang, Pettite, and Clemens does about as well, if not a little better, against you than Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Schilling do against us. Also, our offense is clearly a lot better. And with Joba Chamberlain, our pen might be a little better too.I assume we can beat them in the playoffs. the yankee fans on this site are soft

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

It has been said before, but I'd rather win the wild card as long as the Indians will keep the second best record. I'd do anything to avoid the Angels as long as possible.

[Westlake]

I assume we can beat them in the playoffs. the yankee fans on this site are soft

You also said they would sweep the last series.


I hope no Yankee fan assumes we can beat the Red Sox in the playofffs because I sure don't.

But if we objectively look at each team's strengths and weaknesses against each other, the Yankees do have a slight edge. That's also indicated by how we went 8-2 in our last 10 games. In the beginning of the season, you guys beat up on Chase Wright, Kei Igawa, and Karstens. Those fools are long gone. Right now, our three of Wang, Pettite, and Clemens does about as well, if not a little better, against you than Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Schilling do against us. Also, our offense is clearly a lot better. And with Joba Chamberlain, our pen might be a little better too.

They did better earlier this year, but didn't do better this past weekend.

And with Chamberlain, I really don't the think Yankee pen is better. Okajima went through dead arm, so he's sitting at the moment, but he'll be back. Papelbon is better than any arm in the Yankee bullpen. Our secondary arms in the pen....Delcarmen (2.35),Timlin (3.16), and Javier Lopez (3.05) all have lower ERAs than everyone other than Rivera (and Joba's 18 innings).

[DoubleX]

And with Chamberlain, I really don't the think Yankee pen is better. Okajima went through dead arm, so he's sitting at the moment, but he'll be back. Papelbon is better than any arm in the Yankee bullpen. Our secondary arms in the pen....Delcarmen (2.35),Timlin (3.16), and Javier Lopez (3.05) all have lower ERAs than everyone other than Rivera (and Joba's 18 innings).

I don't know how much stock to put in the ERAs of those middle relievers. Look at Mike Myers - his ERA was 2.66 when the Yankees DFA'd him, and there was no way he was nearly as effective as his ERA might imply.

And seriously, would you trust someone like Javier Lopez to come in a game with men on in a late and close situation? He's pitched just 35 innings this year and his WHIP is fairly mediocre. Delcarmen is also an unknown. He's been good this year, but again it's in limited work, just 38 innings - do you feel comfortable with him stepping into a tight situation.

I'm also starting to develop some concerns about Papelbon. He's never pitched more than 68 innings at the big league level, and this year it looks like he's starting to wear down after just 54 innings in 54 games. Papelbon is essentially a prototypical one-inning closer this year, and I'm sure that with the way Gagne has been pitching and concerns about Okajima being tired, there could be occasions in the postseason where Gagne is asked to get more than 3 outs.

This is not to say that I think the Yankees have the better bullpen (because I don't), I'm just saying that I don't believe the Sox bullpen is as good as some ERA numbers might indicate and that there are some reasons to be concerned right now.

[Yankwood]

You also said they would sweep the last series.



They did better earlier this year, but didn't do better this past weekend.

And with Chamberlain, I really don't the think Yankee pen is better. Okajima went through dead arm, so he's sitting at the moment, but he'll be back. Papelbon is better than any arm in the Yankee bullpen. Our secondary arms in the pen....Delcarmen (2.35),Timlin (3.16), and Javier Lopez (3.05) all have lower ERAs than everyone other than Rivera (and Joba's 18 innings).I'm not so sure about Papelbon's physical state. I hear he's having his neck looked at right now for a severe case of whiplash after that Grand Salami last night.:laugh

[Westlake]

double post....

[Westlake]

And seriously, would you trust someone like Javier Lopez to come in a game with men on in a late and close situation? He's pitched just 35 innings this year and his WHIP is fairly mediocre. Delcarmen is also an unknown. He's been good this year, but again it's in limited work, just 38 innings - do you feel comfortable with him stepping into a tight situation.

I'm also starting to develop some concerns about Papelbon. He's never pitched more than 68 innings at the big league level, and this year it looks like he's starting to wear down after just 54 innings in 54 games. Papelbon is essentially a prototypical one-inning closer this year, and I'm sure that with the way Gagne has been pitching and concerns about Okajima being tired, there could be occasions in the postseason where Gagne is asked to get more than 3 outs.

This is not to say that I think the Yankees have the better bullpen (because I don't), I'm just saying that I don't believe the Sox bullpen is as good as some ERA numbers might indicate and that there are some reasons to be concerned right now.

Yeah, I would trust those guys to come in during a situation they would usually come in during, because they've been doing well at it all year.. Do I want them in during the 9th against the heart of the order? No, because that's not their job.

Delcarmen is not an unknown. And yes, since he has done well it tight situations before, i'm not uncomfortable there either. Timlin has done well in tight situations as well. I dont cringe when any of these guys come in the game.

"I'm also starting to develop some concerns about Papelbon. He's never pitched more than 68 innings at the big league level, and this year it looks like he's starting to wear down after just 54 innings in 54 games."

-- What is there to be concerned about? The HR last night? He came in with the bases loaded, struck the first guy out, then perfectly hit the spot Varitek set up for with a 95 MPH fastball, and Adams hit it -- it happens.

Other than that, where he made his pitch, I dont see how he's "wearing down" .... Before last night, he hadn't given up a run since July!! That's 15 2/3 scoreless innings, include 25 strikeouts and only 4 BBs.

[csanchez29]

First, that's a really elementary and irrelevant "chart". Are you 13 years old?

Anyway, I'm going to assume you are a Red Sox fan. Your team doesn't scare me at all. Your strength is your starting pitching, and as has been shown, the Yankees rock all your starters (and your relief pitchers too!).

I'm not guaranteeing a Yankee victory if we faced int he ALCS, but I fear the Angels and the Indians much more than your team. The Red Sox have a lot of weaknesses. Okajima and Matsuzaka are just too fatigued at this point int he season to be of any value. Your starting shortstop is Julio Lugo.

Yep, the Yankees really "rocked" Boston's starting pitching last weekend: Dice-K 2 ER in 5.2 IP, Beckett was lights out, and Schilling was pitching a gem, until the Jeter HR. Fact is, the Yanks are very capable of taking the division, but the playoffs are a toss up. I wouldn't count on any carry over into the postseason. Just remember how Detroit finished the regular season last year, or how your same Yankees finished in either 2000 or 2001 (not sure which year it was, but you guys lost like 15 of the last 17 or so).

[PVNICK]

Other than that, where he made his pitch, I dont see how he's "wearing down" .... Before last night, he hadn't given up a run since July!! That's 15 2/3 scoreless innings, include 25 strikeouts and only 4 BBs. Wasn't he on the mound for the Yanks comeback game last weekend. I thought Jeter singled, Abreu hit one high off the wall in CF and A-Rod singled for two runs? I thought that there was some issue last year with concerns about him wearing down late season or am I mistaken?

[DoubleX]

Yeah, I would trust those guys to come in during a situation they would usually come in during, because they've been doing well at it all year.. Do I want them in during the 9th against the heart of the order? No, because that's not their job.

All year? Delcarmen and Lopez haven't even pitched 40 innings this year. That doesn't seem very tested to me.


Delcarmen is not an unknown. And yes, since he has done well it tight situations before, i'm not uncomfortable there either. Timlin has done well in tight situations as well. I dont cringe when any of these guys come in the game.

Notice I didn't mention Timlin, but Delcarmen really hasn't pitched that much.


-- What is there to be concerned about? The HR last night? He came in with the bases loaded, struck the first guy out, then perfectly hit the spot Varitek set up for with a 95 MPH fastball, and Adams hit it -- it happens.

Other than that, where he made his pitch, I dont see how he's "wearing down" .... Before last night, he hadn't given up a run since July!! That's 15 2/3 scoreless innings, include 25 strikeouts and only 4 BBs

Before last night he gave up 2 earned runs in his last outing on Friday night against the Yankees.

I'm also concerned about the innings thing. Last year his arm became sore at the end of the year. Given that, the fact that he's struggled a little of late, and that he is really just a one inning pitcher, I think there are some reasons to be concerned about how dominant he can be in the postseason (plus it's a new experience for him), and if he can get more than 3 outs when needed. When key setup parts like Okajima and Gagne struggle, it will likely have a domino effect on Papelbon in that he might be asked to pitch more than normal in the postseason, and I'm wondering how he'll hold up.

I'm not saying Papelbon will struggle, I'm just saying that I can find some reasons to raise an eyebrow. :)

[redoct11]

First, that's a really elementary and irrelevant "chart". Are you 13 years old?

Anyway, I'm going to assume you are a Red Sox fan. Your team doesn't scare me at all. Your strength is your starting pitching, and as has been shown, the Yankees rock all your starters (and your relief pitchers too!).

I'm not guaranteeing a Yankee victory if we faced int he ALCS, but I fear the Angels and the Indians much more than your team. The Red Sox have a lot of weaknesses. Okajima and Matsuzaka are just too fatigued at this point int he season to be of any value. Your starting shortstop is Julio Lugo.

Irrelevant? It shows the runs allowed totals for the second half of the season. How's that irrelevant?

[redoct11]

All year? Delcarmen and Lopez haven't even pitched 40 innings this year. That doesn't seem very tested to me.



Notice I didn't mention Timlin, but Delcarmen really hasn't pitched that much.



Before last night he gave up 2 earned runs in his last outing on Friday night against the Yankees.

I'm also concerned about the innings thing. Last year his arm became sore at the end of the year. Given that, the fact that he's struggled a little of late, and that he is really just a one inning pitcher, I think there are some reasons to be concerned about how dominant he can be in the postseason (plus it's a new experience for him), and if he can get more than 3 outs when needed. When key setup parts like Okajima and Gagne struggle, it will likely have a domino effect on Papelbon in that he might be asked to pitch more than normal in the postseason, and I'm wondering how he'll hold up.

I'm not saying Papelbon will struggle, I'm just saying that I can find some reasons to raise an eyebrow. :)


Papelbon 2005 Postseason: 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K

[DoubleX]

Papelbon 2005 Postseason: 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K

That there answers everything. He also wasn't the closer in the 2005 postseason, which is a totally different experience, especially if he's asked to pick up the slack for Okajima and Gagne if they are still struggling.

[Doctor Zizmor]

did west just say that paplebaum was better than every arm in the yankees pen?


Maybe that was true in April, May and June, but certainly not now.

The last three times Ive seen paplebaum, the balls he's thrown have gotten tattoo'd. Not just a couple of weak broken bat hits, ala Mariano Rivera. I mean scorthed, home runs, line drives off the Mahnstah, bulltes up the middle and so on. Paplebaum is not gangsta

[redoct11]

did west just say that paplebaum was better than every arm in the yankees pen?


Maybe that was true in April, May and June, but certainly not now.

The last three times Ive seen paplebaum, the balls he's gotten tattoo'd. Not just a couple of weak broken bat hits, ala Mariano Rivera. I mean scorthed, home runs, line drives off the Mahnstah, bulltes up the middle and so on. Paplebaum is not gangsta

Mariano Rivera 2007: SLG Against: .343
Jonathan Papelbon 2007: SLG Against: .230

[redoct11]

That there answers everything. He also wasn't the closer in the 2005 postseason, which is a totally different experience, especially if he's asked to pick up the slack for Okajima and Gagne if they are still struggling.

I don't think you have to worry about him in the postseason though. Great closers will still be great closers.

[Westlake]

Before last night he gave up 2 earned runs in his last outing on Friday night against the Yankees.

I'm also concerned about the innings thing. Last year his arm became sore at the end of the year. Given that, the fact that he's struggled a little of late, and that he is really just a one inning pitcher, I think there are some reasons to be concerned about how dominant he can be in the postseason (plus it's a new experience for him), and if he can get more than 3 outs when needed. When key setup parts like Okajima and Gagne struggle, it will likely have a domino effect on Papelbon in that he might be asked to pitch more than normal in the postseason, and I'm wondering how he'll hold up.

I'm not saying Papelbon will struggle, I'm just saying that I can find some reasons to raise an eyebrow. :)

Mike, you can't expect every single guy in the pen to have pitched 65 innings at this point. Like I said, i've watched Delcarmen and Lopez all year, and i'm pretty comfortable with them. At least its not Pineiro.

For some reason I completely forgot about that game. Maybe wishful thinking. Anyway, my point is the same... 2 games is hardly cause for worry when he's been so good all season long. He made his pitch where Tek called for it, and it got crushed... if anything, thats on Tek, not Papelbon. Papelbon is still consistently striking people out, and throwing hard.

I don't understand the "one inning pitcher" thing as bad... Mariano has pitched 2 innings all of 2 times this year, and the only reason he is brought it for the 8th more often than Papelbon is because before Joba, the Yanks have not have a reliable set up guy all year, while Papelbon had Okajima.

When we didnt have Okajima, Papelbon pitched at least 2 innings 7 times last year, and over 1 inning 16 times. He can do it, it's just a matter if he needs to or not. Raising an eyebrow is one thing, but saying he's wearing down is another, kind of picking at something that probably isn't there.

I guess my main point is... I trust the bullpen. They were the best in baseball most of the year, and we, IMO, have the best closer in the league. It's not something to worry about. The offense, on the other hand.....

[Westlake]

did west just say that paplebaum was better than every arm in the yankees pen?


Maybe that was true in April, May and June, but certainly not now.

The last three times Ive seen paplebaum, the balls he's thrown have gotten tattoo'd. Not just a couple of weak broken bat hits, ala Mariano Rivera. I mean scorthed, home runs, line drives off the Mahnstah, bulltes up the middle and so on. Paplebaum is not gangsta

I absolutely did say that. As Redoct showed, the slugging against Mariano is much higher than against Papelbon.

Ok, let's start in July then...

Since July 1st:

Papelbon: 2.22 ERA, 39K, 5BB, .143 BAA, .209 OBP, .238 SLG

Rivera: 2.08 ERA, 38K, 5BB, .241 BAA, .284 OBP, .323 SLG

Mariano has thrown more innings, but that also goes to show how dominant Papelbon has been as he still has more strikeouts. They've both been great SINCE that time frame, but i'd still rather have Papelbon. He's been a tad more consistent than Mariano all year.

[duckydps]

When we didnt have Okajima, Papelbon pitched at least 2 innings 7 times last year, and over 1 inning 16 times. He can do it, it's just a matter if he needs to or not. Raising an eyebrow is one thing, but saying he's wearing down is another, kind of picking at something that probably isn't there.

I guess my main point is... I trust the bullpen. They were the best in baseball most of the year, and we, IMO, have the best closer in the league. It's not something to worry about. The offense, on the other hand.....

I am in no way trying to correct you and there is more than one way for a closer to pitch 2 innings... I am more trying to correct what ESPN (I am stuck in SC and MLB.TV was blacked out friday) said... didn't they say that Papelbon had never come in at the beginning of the 8th inning (or with no outs in the 8th)? I remember finding that hard to believe.

[Westlake]

I am in no way trying to correct you and there is more than one way for a closer to pitch 2 innings... I am more trying to correct what ESPN (I am stuck in SC and MLB.TV was blacked out friday) said... didn't they say that Papelbon had never come in at the beginning of the 8th inning (or with no outs in the 8th)? I remember finding that hard to believe.

Yeah, that's wrong if they said it.

Aug. 20th, 2006 vs. NYY: Comes in during the 8th inning with no outs and the bases loaded, allows 1 inherited runner to score, and also pitches the 9th. Threw 42 pitches.

I don't believe he has ever come in to start the 8th inning and get the save... Francona usually waits until a reliever completely screws up before he brings in Papelbon to pick up the pieces.

[ChrisLDuncan]

I absolutely did say that. As Redoct showed, the slugging against Mariano is much higher than against Papelbon.

Ok, let's start in July then...

Since July 1st:

Papelbon: 2.22 ERA, 39K, 5BB, .143 BAA, .209 OBP, .238 SLG

Rivera: 2.08 ERA, 38K, 5BB, .241 BAA, .284 OBP, .323 SLG

Mariano has thrown more innings, but that also goes to show how dominant Papelbon has been as he still has more strikeouts. They've both been great SINCE that time frame, but i'd still rather have Papelbon. He's been a tad more consistent than Mariano all year.

Same amount of walks though in more innings whould show that that Mo has more control. From what I've seen of Rivera he's never been a strikeout guy. Since July Papelbon has allowed as many HRs as Mo has all season. Their season perphrial stats have been quite similar.

Mo: 67.1 IP 70Ks 12 walks 4HRs
Paps: 55 IP 83 Ks 15 walks 5 HRs

If you look at those stats you could infer that Mo has had better control and done a better job at keeping the ball in the park. However, if you look at ERAs you'd think that Paps has been much better than Mo, well that's not exactly the case. Paps has a BABIP of .226 this season which would suggest that he has been getting lucky on balls put in play, whereas Mo has a .321 BABIP which suggests he has been getting unlucky. However that said, I'd still take Papelbon this season. Mo has been a little walk happy this season and his defense really does him no favors.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Mike, you can't expect every single guy in the pen to have pitched 65 innings at this point. Like I said, i've watched Delcarmen and Lopez all year, and i'm pretty comfortable with them. At least its not Pineiro.

For some reason I completely forgot about that game. Maybe wishful thinking. Anyway, my point is the same... 2 games is hardly cause for worry when he's been so good all season long. He made his pitch where Tek called for it, and it got crushed... if anything, thats on Tek, not Papelbon. Papelbon is still consistently striking people out, and throwing hard.

I don't understand the "one inning pitcher" thing as bad... Mariano has pitched 2 innings all of 2 times this year, and the only reason he is brought it for the 8th more often than Papelbon is because before Joba, the Yanks have not have a reliable set up guy all year, while Papelbon had Okajima.

When we didnt have Okajima, Papelbon pitched at least 2 innings 7 times last year, and over 1 inning 16 times. He can do it, it's just a matter if he needs to or not. Raising an eyebrow is one thing, but saying he's wearing down is another, kind of picking at something that probably isn't there.

I guess my main point is... I trust the bullpen. They were the best in baseball most of the year, and we, IMO, have the best closer in the league. It's not something to worry about. The offense, on the other hand.....

Overall I would agree with you that the Red Sox have a very good pen, better than the Yanks, however I disagree that Papelbon is the best closer in the league, I say it's Putz. However, he's second or thrid best (depending on what you think of Joe Nathan) I'd just rest the pen though for the playoffs. I didn't realize how good Delcarmen was until I looked at his stats the othernight. How do you feel about Eric Gangne though?




PS: Scouts Inc says for the Bears to beat us on Sunday Rex Grossman has to play mistake free football, well if that's the case I like our chances.

[DoubleX]

Mike, you can't expect every single guy in the pen to have pitched 65 innings at this point. Like I said, i've watched Delcarmen and Lopez all year, and i'm pretty comfortable with them. At least its not Pineiro.

If you say so. They seem like specialists to me, especially Lopez.

For some reason I completely forgot about that game. Maybe wishful thinking. Anyway, my point is the same... 2 games is hardly cause for worry when he's been so good all season long. He made his pitch where Tek called for it, and it got crushed... if anything, thats on Tek, not Papelbon. Papelbon is still consistently striking people out, and throwing hard.


I don't understand the "one inning pitcher" thing as bad... Mariano has pitched 2 innings all of 2 times this year, and the only reason he is brought it for the 8th more often than Papelbon is because before Joba, the Yanks have not have a reliable set up guy all year, while Papelbon had Okajima.

It's not bad by itself, I just think there are reasons out there to worry about Papelbon tiring. Last year his arm tired a bit, this year he's been hit lately, and he hasn't pitched a lot of innings in the bigs in a season yet. I'm just wondering how he'll cope if regularly asked to get 4 or 5 or 6 outs in a postseason series, especially given that he's only had to do that a few times this year.


When we didnt have Okajima, Papelbon pitched at least 2 innings 7 times last year, and over 1 inning 16 times. He can do it, it's just a matter if he needs to or not. Raising an eyebrow is one thing, but saying he's wearing down is another, kind of picking at something that probably isn't there.

Sorry, I didn't mean to say he is definitely wearing down, just that I think there could be reasons out there to think that he might be wearing down or might soon wear down. Overall though, I think Papelbon is one of the least of the Sox concerns heading into the postseason. The bridge to Papelbon though, as of lately, is a big concern, IMO.


I guess my main point is... I trust the bullpen. They were the best in baseball most of the year, and we, IMO, have the best closer in the league. It's not something to worry about. The offense, on the other hand.....

The offense should come together better when Manny comes back in. Even though he was having a down season by Manny standards, his mere presence makes the lineup better because it alters the other team's strategy.

As for the bullpen, yeah it has been the best in baseball for most of the season, but right now, it's shaky, and heading into the postseason it's more likely to perform like now than how it performed two or three months ago. I think I saw a stat somewhere this morning that had the bullpen ERA around 5 for the past three weeks or so and over 6 for the past week or two.

[Westlake]

Overall I would agree with you that the Red Sox have a very good pen, better than the Yanks, however I disagree that Papelbon is the best closer in the league, I say it's Putz. However, he's second or thrid best (depending on what you think of Joe Nathan) I'd just rest the pen though for the playoffs. I didn't realize how good Delcarmen was until I looked at his stats the othernight. How do you feel about Eric Gangne though?


PS: Scouts Inc says for the Bears to beat us on Sunday Rex Grossman has to play mistake free football, well if that's the case I like our chances.


Putz is pretty awesome. Maybe a toss up with him IMO. I'd like to see what Gagne does the rest of the season... if he continues to struggle, just give him mop up duty in the playoffs.

Grossman play mistake free? There's absolutely no way that's happening. I like the Royals chances of making the WS better.

[DoubleX]

If you look at those stats you could infer that Mo has had better control and done a better job at keeping the ball in the park. However, if you look at ERAs you'd think that Paps has been much better than Mo, well that's not exactly the case. Paps has a BABIP of .226 this season which would suggest that he has been getting lucky on balls put in play, whereas Mo has a .321 BABIP which suggests he has been getting unlucky. However that said, I'd still take Papelbon this season. Mo has been a little walk happy this season and his defense really does him no favors.

I'd take Papelbon right now. Rivera has lucked shaky for stretches this year. He might not be walking a lot of batters, but his command has been off at times this year, missing spots and hitting batters. He's also given up hits and homeruns at a higher rate this year.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Sorry, I didn't mean to say he is definitely wearing down, just that I think there could be reasons out there to think that he might be wearing down or might soon wear down. Overall though, I think Papelbon is one of the least of the Sox concerns heading into the postseason. The bridge to Papelbon though, as of lately, is a big concern, IMO.


Last season I remember Papelbon throwing a pitch then just walking right off the mound because he was hurt, that doesn't seem like it will happen this season. However, the bridge to Papelbon IMO isn't a concern. Once, Tito and the pitching coaches realize that Okajima is not japenese for Proctor Okajima should be fine. As long as they are careful with him I really see no big problem for the Sox bullpen down the road.

[Westlake]

If you say so. They seem like specialists to me, especially Lopez.


Lopez is absolutely a specialist. And that's pretty much all they'll use him for in the playoffs.


I'm just wondering how he'll cope if regularly asked to get 4 or 5 or 6 outs in a postseason series, especially given that he's only had to do that a few times this year.

Definately the question. Who knows? I'm confident that he can do it, but I'd rather Oki or Timlin be good enough to step up and take the 8th themselves.


Sorry, I didn't mean to say he is definitely wearing down, just that I think there could be reasons out there to think that he might be wearing down or might soon wear down. Overall though, I think Papelbon is one of the least of the Sox concerns heading into the postseason. The bridge to Papelbon though, as of lately, is a big concern, IMO.

Our two "8th inning" guys have struggled. If they continue to do so, I'd like to see Timlin take that set up role. I think it will be ok.. but there's no guarantee of course.



As for the bullpen, yeah it has been the best in baseball for most of the season, but right now, it's shaky, and heading into the postseason it's more likely to perform like now than how it performed two or three months ago. I think I saw a stat somewhere this morning that had the bullpen ERA around 5 for the past three weeks or so and over 6 for the past week or two.

Probably a little to do with the law of averages (as ElHalo suggested earlier this season) and some to do with Okajima's dead arm. We'll see how they finish out the season.

[ChrisLDuncan]

I'd take Papelbon right now. Rivera has lucked shaky for stretches this year. He might not be walking a lot of batters, but his command has been off at times this year, missing spots and hitting batters. He's also given up hits and homeruns at a higher rate this year.

I never said I wouldn't take Papelbon, infact I think I said I would. However, the reason why he is giving up more hits this season his BABIP is .324 it's never been over .300 before. Part of it is he's been getting unlucky, then again his HR totals are worrysome.

[DoubleX]

Probably a little to do with the law of averages (as ElHalo suggested earlier this season) and some to do with Okajima's dead arm. We'll see how they finish out the season.

Not to mention Gagne. In that respect, Francona might be his own worst enemy, much like Torre can be at times. Are you confident that Francona will resist using Gagne in tight situations in the postseason? I can definitely see Francona going with Gagne, as he has been, and hoping, or perhaps assuming that the pre-Red Sox Gagne will show up and not the Gagne that's really burned the Sox.

[Westlake]

Not to mention Gagne. In that respect, Francona might be his own worst enemy, much like Torre can be at times. Are you confident that Francona will resist using Gagne in tight situations in the postseason? I can definitely see Francona going with Gagne, as he has been, and hoping, or perhaps assuming that the pre-Red Sox Gagne will show up and not the Gagne that's really burned the Sox.

Someone in the Sox forum said that Gagne might only still be getting into tight games because of pressure from above. Dont know if its true, but an interesting scenario.

I don't know about using him in the post-season. I think if he continues to struggle for the rest of the regular season, Francona will be smart enough not to use him in very close games.

[Yankwood]

After the Yanks slap Toronto around tomorrow it's down to 1 game even. That means Boston HAS to play even with the Yankees over the last six. I say they can't do it. They ain't got the savvy. They ain't got the moxey and the heart is gone. Yanks, because they sweep through the next 7 and finish with the best record, take the division title and host Cleveland in the opening round. Boston goes out to LA. Yankwood has spoken and it has been written.:baseball: :atthepc

[redoct11]

After the Yanks slap Toronto around tomorrow it's down to 1 game even. That means Boston HAS to play even with the Yankees over the last six. I say they can't do it. They ain't got the savvy. They ain't got the moxey and the heart is gone. Yanks, because they sweep through the next 7 and finish with the best record, take the division title and host Cleveland in the opening round. Boston goes out to LA. Yankwood has spoken and it has been written.:baseball: :atthepc

I like how you claim victory so soon when A.J. Burnett in 2 starts against the Yankees this year has posted a 0.60 ERA.

[Yankwood]

I like how you claim victory so soon when A.J. Burnett in 2 starts against the Yankees this year has posted a 0.60 ERA.YES!!! I believe in the law of averages. Yanks knock him out of the box before too long. Pettitte silences the Jays. Yankees win......

[redoct11]

YES!!! I believe in the law of averages. Yanks knock him out of the box before too long. Pettitte silences the Jays. Yankees win......

HAHAHA! Ok dude.

[Evangelion]

It does help Boston home for their final 6 while Anaheim, Cleveland and New York are on the road for their final 6.

[redoct11]

YES!!! I believe in the law of averages. Yanks knock him out of the box before too long. Pettitte silences the Jays. Yankees win......

Well Yankwood, so much for your free win. And your team didn't even face Burnett either. Magic number is now 5.

[Yankwood]

Well Yankwood, so much for your free win. And your team didn't even face Burnett either. Magic number is now 5.And a most uninspired, listless performance if I say so myself. At any rate, I still believe that the Pinstripers will finish out at 6-0 and the Crimson Hose will have to do better than 4-2 to win outright. I can still smell a division title for the team with the interlocking NY.

[redoct11]

And a most uninspired, listless performance if I say so myself. At any rate, I still believe that the Pinstripers will finish out at 6-0 and the Crimson Hose will have to do better than 4-2 to win outright. I can still smell a division title for the team with the interlocking NY.

You're looking past Kazmir now?

[Yankwood]

Kazmir is good but he walks alot of batters,. The Yanks work the pitcher. Therefore he'll be gone by the 5th. As long as Clemens hangs in, it's a laugher.

[redoct11]

Kazmir is good but he walks alot of batters,. The Yanks work the pitcher. Therefore he'll be gone by the 5th. As long as Clemens hangs in, it's a laugher.

Yeah, but don't forget that Tampa Bay can knock in 12 runs against the Yankees. They've done it quite a few times this season.

[BaseballRookie]

after last night lost it's going to be tougher. Yankees need to win 5 games and box need to lose 3 in order to tie.

[Yankwood]

after last night lost it's going to be tougher. Yankees need to win 5 games and box need to lose 3 in order to tie.
Very true, but when he Yanks go 6-0, it's gonna be tought for the Red Sox to fight them off. I think the division is in the bag....

[Westlake]

Very true, but when he Yanks go 6-0, it's gonna be tought for the Red Sox to fight them off. I think the division is in the bag....

6-0... in the bag...

Counting chickens pretty much before the eggs are even laid.