BBF Mock HoF Election: 2008

[DoubleX]

Welcome to Baseball Fever's Mock HoF Election for 2008. The goal of this project is to conduct Hall of Fame elections from 1979-2008, as if we were the BBWAA, and then compare our results to the actual BBWAA results (obviously, there will be no comparisons to the BBWAA for elections after 2007). For the most part, we will proceed just like BBWAA does. 1979 was selected as the start year because that is when the BBWAA elections first implemented the 5% rule (though it was not always adhered to).

This post will provide three things:

1) The Format and Rules

2) A Guide for the 2008 Election


Format and Rules
- The BBF ballot will consist of the same players that were on the BBWAA ballot, except for in instances where we have elected, dropped, or sustained on the ballot different players than the BBWAA (which will likely be quite a few).

- Voters may vote for between 0-10 candidates. A "None of the Above" option is available if you believe no one is worthy and you wish to submit a blank ballot.

- Adjusting Ballots: Anyone who votes for more than 10 candidates will have all their votes discounted unless they inform me within 48 hours of submitting their vote (or the close of the election, whichever comes first) of the mistake and which players they wish to discount. In such a situation, if I am not informed of the players to be dropped, I will discount that voter's entire ballot. If a voter habitually submits a ballot with more than 10 players, they risk having their votes discounted in all present and future elections. Otherwise, there will be no adjusting ballots after submitted, even if you forgot to vote for someone you meant to vote for or clicked on the wrong player. So please think carefully about your ballot before voting and make sure you have selected everyone you intend to vote for (up to 10).

- 75% support or greater will elect a player. Players receiving less than 5% will be dropped from all future elections (even if in reality, that player was included in future BBWAA elections). Players receiving 5% or more but less than 75% will stay on the ballot for the next election, unless that player's 15-year eligibility is over.

- The election will close exactly a week after it started. The next election might not commence for another day or two.

- IMPORTANT: There is some concern about voters defrauding this process by voting with multiple screen names. First, please don't as there is really no point and it takes the fun out of this which is to see how we come out, more than it being a heated competition to get your player elected. Nevertheless, to take precaution against the possibility of a voter abusing the process, votes will be made public, so if we see unfamiliar screen names casting similar ballots, we'll see cause for concern, and if the concern proves to be founded, some form of punitive action could follow. So basically, ONE PERSON = ONE BALLOT. Anything else is really just moronic and defeats the purpose.

- Also, in the interest of making this process as genuine as possible, I strongly urge voters to not view the results before they vote, as viewing results before voting could influence a person's votes (perhaps subconsciously).

- This thread is also meant to be a discussion thread, so please feel free to stump for and/or against players, including players that will come up for election in the following year.


2008 Guide
There are 41 candidates on the 2007 BBF ballot. Here's some information regarding the candidates:

First Timers (20)
Brady Anderson
Rod Beck
Andy Benes
Delino DeShields
Shawon Dunston
Chuck Finley
Darrin Fletcher
Travis Fryman
David Justice
Chuck Knoblauch
Mike Morgan
Robb Nen
Tim Raines
Jose Rijo
Henry Rodriguez
Todd Stottlemyre
Greg Swindell
John Valentin
Randy Velarde
Mark Wohlers

Holdovers (21)

Player Year of Eligibility High BBF Support Previous Year’s BBF Support
Albert Belle 3rd 40.48% (2006) 30.00%
Jay Buhner 2nd 5.00% (2007) 5.00%
Jose Canseco 2nd 5.00% (2007) 5.00%
Will Clark 3rd 28.57% (2006) 27.50%
Andre Dawson 7th 58.33% (2004) 37.50%
Darrell Evans 14th 35.14% (1997) 20.00%
Dwight Evans 12th 24.32% (1997) 10.00%
Keith Hernandez 13th 47.06% (1998) 22.50%
Tommy John 14th 30.23% (1995) 12.50%
Fred Lynn 13th 18.92% (1997) 10.00%
Mark McGwire 2nd 47.50% (2007) 47.50%
Jack Morris 9th 25.00% (2000) 12.50%
Dale Murphy 10th 58.33% (2000/2004) 50.00%
Dave Parker 12th 40.54% (1997) 17.50%
Dan Quisenberry 13th 35.29% (1998) 27.50%
Jim Rice 14th 50.00% (1998) 30.00%
Bret Saberhagen 2nd 5.00% (2007) 5.00%
Lee Smith 6th 21.21% (2003) 20.00%
Bruce Sutter 15th 44.19% (1995) 32.50%
Alan Trammell 7th 69.70% (2003) 62.50%
Lou Whitaker 8th 63.64% (2003) 55.00%

Last Year of Eligibility (1)
Bruce Sutter

Penultimate Year of Eligibility (3)
Darrell Evans
Tommy John
Jim Rice

Actual Hall of Famers on BBF Ballot (1))
Bruce Sutter (BBWAA - 2006)

Players on BBF Ballot that Will Not be on BBWAA Ballot (12)
Albert Belle – Dropped by BBWAA (2007)
Jay Buhner – Dropped by BBWAA (2007)
Jose Canseco – Dropped by BBWAA (2007)
Will Clark – Dropped by BBWAA (2006)
Darrell Evans – Dropped by BBWAA (1995)
Dwight Evans – Dropped by BBWAA (1999)
Keith Hernandez – Dropped by BBWAA (2004)
Fred Lynn – Dropped by BBWAA (1997)
Dan Quisenberry – Dropped by BBWAA (1996)
Bret Saberhagen – Dropped by BBWAA (2007)
Bruce Sutter – Elected by BBWAA (2006)
Lou Whitaker – Dropped by BBWAA (2001)

Players that Will Be On BBWAA Ballot but Not On BBF Ballot (5)
Harold Baines – Dropped by BBF (2007)
Bert Blyleven - Elected by BBF (1998)
Dave Concepcion – Dropped by BBF (1999)
Goose Gossage – Elected by BBF (2000)
Don Mattingly – Dropped by BBF (2002)

Players Elected by BBF between 1979-2007 (53)

Player BBF Election Year BBF Election Percentage Year on Ballot
Hank Aaron 1982 100.00% 1st
Dick Allen 1985 75.00% 3rd
Luis Aparicio 1990 76.47% 12th
Richie Ashburn 1979 75.41% 12th (1st for BBF)
Johnny Bench 1989 95.12% 1st
Bert Blyleven 1998 82.35% 1st
Wade Boggs 2005 83.78% 1st
George Brett 1999 96.97% 1st
Lou Brock 1988 76.19% 4th
Rod Carew 1991 86.05% 1st
Gary Carter 1998 82.35% 1st
Steve Carlton 1994 94.12% 1st
Orlando Cepeda 1984 79.03% 5th
Don Drysdale 1983 79.03% 9th (5th for BBF)
Dennis Eckersley 2005 78.38% 2nd
Rollie Fingers 1991 76.47% 4th
Carlton Fisk 1999 93.94% 1st
Bob Gibson 1981 89.83% 1st
Goose Gossage 2000 80.56% 1st
Tony Gwynn 2007 95.00% 1st
Reggie Jackson 1993 97.62% 1st
Fergie Jenkins 1989 82.93% 1st
Al Kaline 1980 90.32% 1st
Harmon Killebrew 1981 93.22% 1st
Juan Marichal 1981 79.66% 1st
Willie Mays 1979 98.36% 1st
Willie McCovey 1986 100.00% 1st
Minnie Minoso 1990 76.47% 5th
Paul Molitor 2004 83.33% 1st
Joe Morgan 1990 88.24% 1st
Eddie Murray 2003 87.88% 1st
Phil Niekro 1993 80.85% 1st
Jim Palmer 1990 80.39% 1st
Gaylord Perry 1989 80.49% 1st
Kirby Puckett 2006 76.19% 6th
Cal Ripken Jr 2007 90.00% 1st
Brooks Robinson 1983 88.71% 1st
Frank Robinson 1982 100.00% 1st
Nolan Ryan 1999 93.94% 1st
Ryne Sandberg 2003 87.88% 1st
Ron Santo 1980 82.26% 1st
Mike Schmidt 1995 95.35% 1st
Tom Seaver 1992 97.62% 1st
Ted Simmons 2006 77.50% 14th
Ozzie Smith 2002 81.58% 1st
Duke Snider 1979 83.61% 10th (1st for BBF)
Willie Stargell 1988 88.10% 1st
Don Sutton 1996 78.95% 3rd
Hoyt Wilhelm 1979 77.05% 2nd (1st for BBF)
Billy Williams 1982 80.00% 1st
Dave Winfield 2002 92.59% 2nd
Carl Yastrzemski 1989 92.68% 1st
Robin Yount 1999 93.94% 1st

Players Elected by BBF by Position
Catcher (4): Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, Ted Simmons
First Base (5): Dick Allen, Orlando Cepeda, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Eddie Murray
Second Base (3): Rod Carew, Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg
Shortstop (4): Luis Aparicio, Cal Ripken Jr, Ozzie Smith, Robin Yount
Third Base (5): Wade Boggs, George Brett, Brooks Robinson, Ron Santo, Mike Schmidt
Left Field (5): Lou Brock, Minnie Minoso, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, Carl Yastrzemski
Center Field (4): Richie Ashburn, Willie Mays, Kirby Puckett, Duke Snider
Right Field (6): Hank Aaron, Tony Gwynn, Reggie Jackson, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Dave Winfield
Designated Hitter (1): Paul Molitor

Starting Pitcher (12): Bert Blyleven, Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, Juan Marichal, Phil Niekro, Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton
Relief Pitcher (4): Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm

Players Elected by BBWAA between 1979-2007 (48)

Player BBWAA Election Year BBWAA Election Percentage Year on Ballot
Hank Aaron 1982 97.83% 1st
Luis Aparicio 1984 84.62% 6th
Johnny Bench 1989 96.42% 1st
Wade Boggs 2005 91.90% 1st
George Brett 1999 98.19% 1st
Lou Brock 1985 79.75% 1st
Rod Carew 1991 90.52% 1st
Steve Carlton 1994 95.61% 1st
Gary Carter 2003 78.00% 6th
Don Drysdale 1984 78.41% 10th
Rollie Fingers 1992 81.16% 2nd
Dennis Eckersley 2004 83.20% 1st
Carlton Fisk 2000 79.56% 1st
Bob Gibson 1981 84.04% 1st
Tony Gwynn 2007 97.60% 1st
Catfish Hunter 1987 76.27% 3rd
Reggie Jackson 1993 93.62% 1st
Fergie Jenkins 1991 75.40% 3rd
Al Kaline 1980 88.31% 1st
Harmon Killebrew 1984 83.13% 4th
Juan Marichal 1983 83.69% 3rd
Willie Mays 1979 94.68% 1st
Willie McCovey 1986 81.41% 1st
Paul Molitor 2004 85.20% 1st
Joe Morgan 1990 81.76% 1st
Eddie Murray 2003 85.30% 1st
Phil Niekro 1997 80.34% 5th
Jim Palmer 1990 92.57% 1st
Tony Perez 2000 77.15% 1st
Gaylord Perry 1991 77.20% 3rd
Kirby Puckett 2001 82.10% 1st
Cal Ripken Jr 2007 98.50% 1st
Brooks Robinson 1983 91.98% 1st
Frank Robinson 1982 89.10% 1st
Nolan Ryan 1999 98.79% 1st
Ryne Sandberg 2005 76.20% 3rd
Mike Schmidt 1995 96.52% 1st
Tom Seaver 1992 98.84% 1st
Ozzie Smith 2002 91.70% 1st
Duke Snider 1980 86.49% 11th
Willie Stargell 1988 82.44% 1st
Bruce Sutter 2006 76.90% 13th
Don Sutton 1998 81.61% 5th
Hoyt Wilhelm 1985 83.80% 8th
Billy Williams 1987 85.71% 6th
Dave Winfield 2001 84.50% 1st
Carl Yastrzemski 1989 94.63% 1st
Robin Yount 1999 77.46% 1st

BBF/BBWAA Election Ratio (1979-2007)
53:48

Players Elected by Year between 1979-2007 (BBF and BBWAA)

Year BBF (44) BBWAA (39)
1979 Richie Ashburn Willie Mays
Duke Snider
Hoyt Wilhelm
Willie Mays
1980 Al Kaline Al Kaline
Ron Santo Duke Snider
1981 Bob Gibson Bob Gibson
Harmon Killebrew
Juan Marichal
1982 Hank Aaron Hank Aaron
Frank Robinson Frank Robinson
Billy Williams
1983 Don Drysdale Juan Marichal
Brooks Robinson Brooks Robinson
1984 Orlando Cepeda Luis Aparicio
Don Drysdale
Harmon Killebrew
1985 Dick Allen Lou Brock
Hoyt Wilhelm
1986 Willie McCovey Willie McCovey
1987 None Caftish Hunter
Billy Williams
1988 Lou Brock Willie Stargell
Willie Stargell
1989 Johnny Bench Johnny Bench
Fergie Jenkins Carl Yastrzemski
Gaylord Perry
Carl Yastrzemski
1990 Luis Aparicio Joe Morgan
Minnie Minoso Jim Palmer
Joe Morgan
Jim Palmer
1991 Rod Carew Rod Carew
Fergie Jenkins
Gaylord Perry
1992 Tom Seaver Rollie Fingers
Tom Seaver
1993 Reggie Jackson Reggie Jackson
Phil Niekro
1994 Steve Carlton Steve Carlton
Rollie Fingers
1995 Mike Schmidt Mike Schmidt
1996 Don Sutton None
1997 None Phil Niekro
1998 Bert Blyeven Don Sutton
Gary Carter
1999 George Brett George Brett
Carlton Fisk Nolan Ryan
Nolan Ryan Robin Yount
Robin Yount
2000 Goose Gossage Carlton Fisk
Tony Perez
2001 None Kirby Puckett
Dave Winfield
2002 Ozzie Smith Ozzie Smith
Dave Winfield
2003 Eddie Murray Eddie Murray
Ryne Sandberg Gary Carter
2004 Paul Molitor Dennis Eckersley
Paul Molitor
2005 Wade Boggs Wade Boggs
Dennis Eckersley Ryne Sandberg
2006 Kirby Puckett Bruce Sutter
2007 Tony Gwynn Ton Gwynn
Cal Ripken Jr Cal Ripken Jr
Ted Simmons

Players Elected by BBF but not BBWAA between 1979-2007 (8)
Dick Allen (1985)
Richie Ashburn (1979) - Elected by VC (1995)
Bert Blyleven (1998)
Orlando Cepeda (1984) - Elected by VC (1999)
Goose Gossage (2000)
Minnie Minoso (1990)
Ron Santo (1980)
Ted Simmons (2007)

Players Elected by BBWAA but not BBF between 1979-2007 (3)
Catfish Hunter (1987)
Tony Perez (2000)
Bruce Sutter (2006)

Players Dropped by BBF After 15 Years on Ballot (25)

Player Year Dropped High BBF Support
Sal Bando 2001 19.57% (1987)
Bobby Bonds 2001 28.26% (1987)
Ken Boyer 1989 33.33% (1986)
Jim Bunning 1991 69.57% (1987)
Norm Cash 1994 20.95% (1994)
Curt Flood 1991 16.28% (1991)
Nellie Fox 1985 67.31% (1985)
Bill Freehan 1996 50.00 (1996)
Steve Garvey 1997 27.32% (1997)
Bobby Grich 2006 55.88% (1998)
Gil Hodges 1983 27.42% (1980/1983)
Frank Howard 1993 30.95% (1993)
Catfish Hunter 1999 39.53% (1991)
Jim Kaat 2003 34.88% (1995)
Ted Kluszewski 1981 9.68% (1980)
Bill Mazeroski 1992 50.00% (1992)
Don Newcombe 1980 12.90% (1980)
Tony Oliva 1996 36.96% (1987)
Tony Perez 2006 48.15% (2002)
Red Schoendienst 1983 25.81% (1983)
Enos Slaughter 1979 45.90% (1979)
Reggie Smith 2002 27.91% (1991)
Luis Tiant 2002 40.48% (1988)
Joe Torre 1997 62.16% (1997)
Jimmy Wynn 1997 34.62% (1985)

Players Heldover by BBF but Dropped Before Eligibility Ended (24)

Player (Year Dropped) Years on Ballot High BBF Support
Vida Blue (1993) 2 11.90% (1992)
Joe Carter (2007) 4 10.81% (2005)
Dave Concepcion (1999) 6 17.65% (1994)
Rick Dempsey (1999) 2 5.88% (1998)
George Foster (2003) 12 14.29% (1992)
Ron Guidry (2000) 7 18.92% (1997)
Orel Hershiser (2007) 2 9.52% (2006)
Willie Horton (1988) 3 6.52% (1987)
Elston Howard (1981) 8 (3 for BBF) 11.29% (1980)
Don Larsen (1980) 7 (2 for BBF) 6.56% (1979)
Sparky Lyle (1989) 2 7.14% (1988)
Roger Maris (1982) 9 (4 for BBF) 16.13% (1979)
Don Mattingly (2002) 2 13.51% (2001)
Thurman Munson (1989) 9 17.39% (1987)
Graig Nettles (2002) 9 27.78% (2000)
Al Oliver (1993) 3 11.63% (1991)
Amos Otis (1991) 2 5.88% (1990)
Lance Parrish (2002) 2 8.11% (2001)
Vada Pinson (1983) 3 13.56% (1981)
Boog Powell (1992) 10 17.74% (1984)
Rusty Staub (1992) 2 6.98% (1991)
Dave Stieb 2 5.56% (2004)
Gene Tenace (1992) 4 7.32% (1989)
Maury Wills (1990) 12 (11 for BBF) 16.13% (1984)

Number of Ballots Submitted in Past BBF Elections
1979: 61
1980: 62
1981: 59
1982: 55
1983: 62
1984: 62
1985: 52
1986: 51
1987: 46
1988: 42
1989: 41
1990: 51
1991: 43
1992: 42
1993: 42
1994: 34
1995: 42
1996: 38
1997: 37
1998: 34
1999: 33
2000: 36
2001: 37
2002: 27
2003: 33
2004: 36
2005: 37
2006: 42
2007: 40

Links to Past BBF Elections
1979 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=56114&highlight=Mock+Election)
1980 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=56470&highlight=Mock+Election)
1981 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=56809&highlight=Mock+Election)
1982 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=57089&highlight=Mock+Election)
1983 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=57376)
1984 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=57694)
1985 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58020)
1986 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58308)
1987 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58590)
1988 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58882)
1989 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=59147)
1990 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=59516)
1991 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=59900)
1992 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=60287)
1993 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=60589)
1994 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=60982)
1995 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=61296)
1996 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=61617)
1997 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=62106)
1998 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=62481)
1999 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=63012)
2000 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=63473)
2001 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=64011)
2002 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=952844#post952844)
2003 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=64872)
2004 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=65361)
2005 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=65822)
2006 (http://http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=985274#post985274)
2007 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=66756)

[Erik Bedard]

Belle
Clark
Murphy
Quisenberry
Raines
Saberhagen
Trammell
Whitaker

[DoubleX]

This is probably the worst new class we've had in a long time. Of new candidates, only Tim Raines seems to be a viable candidate, though I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like David Justice get some support.

Among holdovers, I have to say I'm surprised to see both Jay Buhner and Jose Canseco carry over but not Harold Baines. I would have thought Harold Baines' counting totals would have appealed to people. Oh well. Buher I don't get much. Canseco makes more sense if you take his numbers at face value, which is hard to do. Mark McGwire and Bret Saberhagen also joined the ranks of holdovers.

We said goodbye last year to Steve Garvey, whose eligibility ended, as well as Joe Carter and Orel Hershiser who both failed to receive 5%.

This is the last year for Bruce Sutter, and I have to say that I'm surprised by how little support he's received. I think I'll probably vote for him in his last year. This is also the next to last year for Darrell Evans, Tommy John, and Jim Rice, so their supporters might want to state their case.

In all, given that this might be the weakest ballot we've had, it's probably a good time to stump for players. Guys like Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, and Dale Murphy, could find themselves close to election with some good arguments.

[Senor Octobre]

Albert Belle
Will Clark
Keith Hernandez
Mark McGwire (something has compelled me to vote for him so far)
Dan Quisenberry
Tim Raines
Bruce Sutter
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker

[KCGHOST]

Quiz
Raines
Trammell
Whitaker

[Yankee Legend]

I went with:

Raines
Sutter
Trammell
Quisenberry
McGwire

Yeh, this class is pretty weak. Raines is the only one I see getting elected, if any.

[Baseball Guru]

I'm surprised Belle has not garnered more votes in these polls..

[dgarza]

1. Mark McGwire
2. Jim Rice
3. Albert Belle
4. Dale Murphy
5. Dave Parker
6. Andre Dawson
7. Lee Smith
8. Bruce Sutter
9. Jack Morris
10. Tim Raines

[AstrosFan]

Someone actually voted for Travis Fryman, but not Tim Raines. I'm trying to come up with a good analogy here. I've never seen a vote that bad.

[AstrosFan]

I went with:

Clark
Da. Evans
Hernandez
Raines
Trammell
Whitaker

Clark is tough, because his career is so short. I admit a little bias here, he was one of my favorites. Evans is probably one of the top 10-12 players who primarily played third. Hernandez was the best ever defensively at his position, and a very good hitter too. Raines is one of the top 75 players ever, maybe top 50. Trammell and Whitaker fit into the Evans group, they're simply high enough on the list of greatest ever at their position that they make the cut.

It's always difficult for me to leave out Murphy, Parker, Lynn, and Dw. Evans. I think they are terrific players, and just barely out. If I were looking solely at hitting, Rice would have a good shot at getting my vote, but when other factors come into play, he drops out. I don't think Morris, Dawson, or John are particularly close. They're all overrated in my opinion. As for McGwire, I'm holding off until I know more about the steroids controversy.

[2Chance]

Belle
Clark
Darrell Evans
Murphy
Parker
Quisenberry
Raines
Sutter
Trammell
Whitaker

Dawson came off so that Evans could get another chance.

[Chickazoola]

I think Raines outclasses everyone on the list. I like Trammell, Whitaker, Belle and Rice alot too.

[John Shoemaker]

Someone actually voted for Travis Fryman, but not Tim Raines. I'm trying to come up with a good analogy here. I've never seen a vote that bad.

I've seen a worse vote - who ever left Willie Mays off their ballot.

[2Chance]

That's probably the same person who missed Hank Aaron. :rolleyes:

[538280]

Could someone please explain how they are not voting for Tim Raines, as he is currently in danger of not getting elected with 75% on the nose (and it wasn't 75% before my vote for him). Raines had only a 124 OPS+, but he was one of the best basestealers of all time, with his baserunning taken into account his true offensive value is probably more around a 135-140 OPS+, (as is shown by metrics like EqA which take this into account or just using the Linear Weight value of a SB), and in a long career with a few years as arguably the best player in the league. In addition to this he was a very good fielding LFer and a player who had the reputation of making others on his team better with his distracting baserunning. Not only is he a lock statistically, but he brought value outside of just what the stats would suggest.

[PVNICK]

Dawson
Dwight Evans
Hernandez
Morris
Parker
Raines
Sutter
Trammell
Whitaker

[Brad Harris]

Albert Belle
Will Clark
Andre Dawson
Darrell Evans
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker

[Windy City Fan]

I'm surprised by the low support for the top relievers out there. Sutter, Quiz, and Smith are all clearly deserving in my book. Though I could maybe see how someone would be iffy on Smith.

Sutter did have a short career, but it was almost all peak. And it was a dominant peak. You have to remember, Bruce Sutter was perhaps the most feared closer in baseball in the early 80's. When Ryne Sandburg had his famous 2 HR game in '84 (often called "the Sandburg game") where he hit a game tying homer in the 9th and later a game winning shot in extra innings, part of the reason that game was such a big deal is because he did against Bruce Sutter.

A lot of people are down on Smith, but you need to remember he didn't spend his entire career as a one inning closer. He pitched in the 80's and often was asked to go 2 or 3 innings in his early career. As the game changed, the way Smith was used changed, but he still remained a top flight closer. I fail to see what Fingers has that Smith doesn't.

And guys, please don't drop the ball on Tim Raines. This guy is just a notch below sure-fire HoFer Rickey Henderson. He was a strong fielder, a great runner, a good contact hitter, and even had a little pop for a leadoff guy. At his peak he was arguably the best player in the NL.

One last plug, let's take a look at Belle please. Forget the surly attitude and the off field incidents, this guy could flat out crush the ball. Yes, he had a short career, but it was cut short by a degenerative arthritic hip, not due to Belle flaming out early.

[BoofBonser26]

I would like to caution us against what I see as a trend here.

We seem to be following the very thing that is our chief complaint against the HoF - that we seek to always fill up our ballot. The entire point is that since we here at BBF take ourselves to be such experts, we should already know whom to vote for.

Now, I know many minds have been swayed (myself into the pro-Simmons court, for example), but what I see year after year is a tendency to vote for more players when there are no no-doubters (such as this year, for instance). Look carefully. There's nothing wrong with voting for only three, or two, or one, or *gasp* nobody.

[BoofBonser26]

DoubleX, you do a tremendous job every month putting this together. I justed wanted to point out one tiny thing I noticed:


Players Elected by BBF but not BBWAA between 1979-2007 (9)
Dick Allen (1985)
Richie Ashburn (1979)
Bert Blyleven (1998)
Orlando Cepeda (1984)
Goose Gossage (2000)
Minnie Minoso (1990)
Ryne Sandberg (2003)
Ron Santo (1980)
Ted Simmons (2007)

[DoubleX]

DoubleX, you do a tremendous job every month putting this together. I justed wanted to point out one tiny thing I noticed:

Thanks. Those are the kind of things I usually miss.

[AstrosFan]

Someone voted for Mark Wohlers, but not Tim Raines. That is fantastic. I think we just topped the Fryman over Raines vote.

[538280]

I'd like to again ask the 27% not voting for him: what's the case against Tim Raines? He should be first ballot no questions asked. IMO he's arguably one of the top 50 players ever. I really don't understand the low percentage. Are people just forgetting to vote for him?

[SamtheBravesFan]

I'd like to again ask the 27% not voting for him: what's the case against Tim Raines? He should be first ballot no questions asked. IMO he's arguably one of the top 50 players ever. I really don't understand the low percentage. Are people just forgetting to vote for him?

It's probably the "not the best in his time" and "didn't lead his team to championships" stuff; or, he "doesn't stand out".

[AstrosFan]

Not the best of his time at what? Best player? That's kind of like saying because Rogers Hornsby wasn't the best player in the 1920s (Babe Ruth), he isn't a Hall of Famer. Or is it more specific, like best leadoff man? He's being compared to Rickey Henderson here. It's like comparing a slugger to, again, Ruth, and saying he doesn't deserve the Hall because he couldn't slug like the Babe. Can you clarify what you mean?

[SamtheBravesFan]

Someone voted for Mark Wohlers, but not Tim Raines. That is fantastic. I think we just topped the Fryman over Raines vote.

Wow. Wohlers's one moment in the sun finishing the 1995 World Series trumps everything Raines did. Nice.

[538280]

It's probably the "not the best in his time" and "didn't lead his team to championships" stuff; or, he "doesn't stand out".

Actually I would say Raines was probably the best player in the NL 1985 and 1987, and 1986 he's real close. I could see a case for 1983 and 1984 as well. For the years 1983-1987, the good part of a decade, I'd say Raines was the best NL player. I'd say he was the 2nd best NL player of the 80s after Mike Schmidt.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Actually I would say Raines was probably the best player in the NL 1985 and 1987, and 1986 he's real close. I could see a case for 1983 and 1984 as well. For the years 1983-1987, the good part of a decade, I'd say Raines was the best NL player. I'd say he was the 2nd best NL player of the 80s after Mike Schmidt.

I was being a bit facetious. :) I do agree with you.

[DoubleX]

I'd like to again ask the 27% not voting for him: what's the case against Tim Raines? He should be first ballot no questions asked. IMO he's arguably one of the top 50 players ever. I really don't understand the low percentage. Are people just forgetting to vote for him?

Chris, would you mind laying out your case for Raines? I believe Raines should be in, but I've never really seen him as a slam dunk case. I think detailing his case, and he is someone who probably needs more explanation for some people, could really make a difference with some voters.

[jalbright]

Here's mine for Raines:

Tim Raines--Elected BBF HOF

Raines was an all-star 7 straight seasons and was in the top five in on base percentage seven times. He also is 7th in career Win Shares among the 100 LF listed in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract, and 5th in Win Shares for his top five consecutive seasons in that same group. If that's not enough for you, listen to this from another BBF poster:


I'm suprised that this is even a debate at all, and that 14 people think that Raines shouldn't be in. Not to debase the HOF, but the HOF was long ago debased, electing a litany of players from the 20's and 30's who got in on cronyism and raw numbers (mostly BA and RBI's, which were the stats du jour).

Someone else here wisely pointed out that Raines' .294 career BA was actually better than Hugh Duffy's (.324), Bill Lange's (.330), Lloyd Waner's (.316), Chuck Klein's 1.092 (.320), Goose Goslin's 1.090 (.316). It was also better than that of Mickey Cochrane, Chick Hafey, Pie Traynor, Frankie Frisch, and Earl Averill.

And remember that Raines accomplished this relative BA against more athletic fielders playing with much bigger gloves, on better manicured fields, and with less overall space for hits to fall (given the comparative stadium dimensions).

But it wasn't just batting average- Raines' career secondary average (all offensive value not represented by BA) was .356 (against a league secondary average of .250). For a guy whose career spaned 4 decades (and over 10,000 PA), this is pretty darn good.

Raines' 390 career Win Shares (43rd alltime) ranks him ahead of Joe Dimaggio (true, he missed 3 full seasons to WWII). However, it also places Raines ahead of HOFers Jesse Burkett, Rod Carew, Charlie Gehringer, Cap Anson, Zack Wheat, Luke Appling, Yogi Berra, Al Simmons, Billy Williams, Rafael Palmeiro, and future HOFers Roberto Alomar & Jeff Bagwell. Raines is WAY ahead of HOFers Harmon Killebrew, Stargell, Fisk, Heilmann, Brooks Robinson, Arky Vaughn, Dan Brouthers, Delahanty, Goslin, Snider, Max Carey, Tony Perez, Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg, McGwire, Mize, Hamilton, Larkn, Banks, and Wee Willie Keeler.

It should also be noted that there are many, MANY guys who aren't even on this list, and are already in the HOF.

Raines led the league in Win Shares three years in a row (84-86). He was one of the best players in baseball during the 1980's, and this is playing in the NL before they expanded in 1993 (and then again in 1998).

Side note regarding expansion...three of these four extra NL teams added during the 90's (Colorado, Florida, and the Brewers) have been doormats, with a combined winning percentage of .454 replete with a multitude of cellar finishes.

More career value stats vindicating Raines-
WARP 3- 121.4
EqA- .307

To show what a joke it is to compare him to his supposed contemporary "rival" Andre Dawson

Win Shares- 340 (90th alltime)
WARP3- 99.6
EqA- .284

Raines was almost everything one could ask from a leadoff hitter- tons of walks, relatively few K's, incredible speed, a great SB percentage, and a very good batting average.

Plain and simple, Tim Raines is a Hall of Famer.

[Senor Octobre]

C'mon folks, Sweet Lou is at 70.59% as I'm writing this, lets give him the final boost he needs!

[jalbright]

C'mon folks, Sweet Lou is at 70.59% as I'm writing this, lets give him the final boost he needs!

Problem is, he needs six of six just to get to 75% (so if there's only 5 more votes, he's out even if he gets all five) and then he needs to get the next three (if there are three), and only if there are 10 votes can he miss a single one. That's a tall order.

[STLCards2]

I'd like to again ask the 27% not voting for him: what's the case against Tim Raines? He should be first ballot no questions asked. IMO he's arguably one of the top 50 players ever. I really don't understand the low percentage. Are people just forgetting to vote for him?

I never remember while he was playing anybody ever refering to Raines as a "Future Hall of Famer" the way they did for many other players (even some that will never make it, i.e. Gooden, Mattingly, Hershiser, Strawberry, etc.). This is important, becuase the perception of a player's abilities while they are playing will obviously affect how they are percieved come election time. Remember, OB% was not a consideration to most in the 1980's. Raines also got very little attention in Montreal, never was a big HR/RBI guy, and was percieved as just another one of many stolen base guys in the SB rich era of the '80s. I even remember a few people not realizing that "Tim" and "Rock" were the same person. Even with today's advanced stats, the perception of Raines as being "good, but not great" will not change for many who value counting stats only and viewed baseball through the same lense as those who saw Raines for less than what he was. In short, nobody "missed" Raines while voting, but he is another victim of the "HR/RBI/AVG" paradigm that has been slow to change.

[538280]

Chris, would you mind laying out your case for Raines? I believe Raines should be in, but I've never really seen him as a slam dunk case. I think detailing his case, and he is someone who probably needs more explanation for some people, could really make a difference with some voters.

Quite simply Raines' level of offense from even a corner OF including his basestealing is well above a HOF baseline-almost equal to a 135-140 OPS+ player and in a pretty long career with an awesome peak. Using Total Baseball's Linear Weights with just batting events he is about 338 runs above average over his career. Including his steals, though, he is 460 runs above average (Total Baseball's weights have a SB as +.22 runs and a CS as -.38.). That would be good for being the 44th best offensive player of all time. Raines also clearly deserves boosts in other areas of the game. He was an electric type player who was awesome on the bases even outside of his steals and made his teammates better. He played against very high competition over his career. He was close the best player in baseball for a few years, so he has high peak value. With those things taken into account he may be close to top 30 offensive players of all time. As a fielder, he didn't play a key position, but did it well. At most he's losing a few spots there. I think he's a top 50 player.

STLCards2: I agree, and that's probably why even here Raines is struggling a bit. The results with the BBWAA this year may be much worse. It's too bad.

[STLCards2]

STLCards2: I agree, and that's probably why even here Raines is struggling a bit. The results with the BBWAA this year may be much worse. It's too bad.

You are right. I would predict that Raines will struggle to get 50% of the BBWAA at first.

[DoubleX]

Trammell looks pretty good, and Raines and Whitaker still have a chance.

Looking ahead to 2009, the HoF website lists the following candidates (having last played in 2003):

Steve Avery
Jay Bell
John Burkett
David Cone
Mike Bordick
Ron Gant
Mark Grace
Rickey Henderson
Denny Neagle
Dean Palmer
Dan Plesac
Greg Vaughn
Mo Vaughn
Matt Williams
Mike Williams

In addition to those players, I will likely include on the ballot the following players:

Joe Girardi
Todd Hundley
Charles Nagy
Jesse Orosco
Rick Reed

Please let me know if you believe anyone else who retired in 2003 should be included that is not listed here. Thanks.

[Texas Rangers]

did i really just see chuck knoblauch on this ballot?

[Captain Cold Nose]

did i really just see chuck knoblauch on this ballot?

The guy played 10 years. Why wouldn't he be on the ballot?

[J W]

Trammell is barely over the line, and Whitaker is gaining momentum. It would be very fitting for both of these players to go in together. They are both among the top dozen players at their position of all time... so please vote for Detroit! :gt

I'm confident Raines will eventually get through, though it appears he won't be a 1st ballot electee. Then again, Ted Simmons was receiving 70% support for a long time and almost missed the boat.

I don't see Barry Larkin listed for 2008 or 2009. Is he on the 2010 ballot?

[DoubleX]

I don't see Barry Larkin listed for 2008 or 2009. Is he on the 2010 ballot?

Larkin last played in 2004, so he'll be on the 2010 ballot, as will Roberto Alomar, Fred McGriff, and Edgar Martinez. Others of note on that ballot include Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Ellis Burks, and Kevin Appier.

Just to be clear with everyone, the way I'm compiling the ballots going forward is that I'm using the list on the Hall of Fame site of players that will be eligible for upcoming ballots. However, those lists are incomplete, so I supplement them looking at players that retired in the year at baseball-reference.com. At that stage, I'm using my judgment. I'm not incorporating every player that simply played 10 years, as that would include a number of middle relievers and utility-type players, though I am trying to include every player that played at least 10 years and had at least one All Star selection or won some major award.

[DoubleX]

The election is almost over and I just realized that PenneyAA has voted for 11, thus unless I hear from Penney in the next 20 minutes, I will have to discount his/her ballot. I don't think it will make much of a difference though.

EDIT: Here the modified results based on eliminating Penney's ballot (only includes players that received at least a vote):

Rod Beck: 2.32%
Albert Belle: 46.51%
Jay Buhner: 4.65%
Jose Canseco: 4.65%
Will Clark: 30.23%
Andre Dawson: 51.16%
Darrell Evans: 32.56%
Dwight Evans: 18.61%
Travis Fryman: 2.32%
Keith Hernandez: 37.21%
Tommy John: 20.93%
David Justice: 2.32%
Fred Lynn: 9.30%
Mark McGwire: 53.49%
Jack Morris: 11.63%
Dale Murphy: 51.16%
Dave Parker: 30.23%
Dan Quisenberry: 34.88%
Tim Raines: 67.44%
Jim Rice: 25.58%
Jose Rijo: 2.32%
Bret Saberhagen: 2.32%
Lee Smith: 20.93%
Bruce Sutter: 46.51%
Alan Trammell: 76.74%
Lou Whitaker: 69.77%
Mark Wohlers: 2.32%

So discounting the ballot didn't really make a difference in terms of who got elected and who got dropped. Alan Trammell is the only person to get elected and by a slightly safer margin now. I suppose if anything, the discounted ballot might hurt Lou Whitaker who was above 70% before discounting and is now below. We have eventually elected every player that received at least 70% at least once, so Whitaker would not fall into that favorable category.

2009 should be up soon.

[catbox_9]

Congratulations Alan Trammel! Now if only the BBWAA could do the same thing....

[penneyAA]

My apologies to Double X for my oversight in submitting 11 votes, and the inconvienence this may have caused.

[DoubleX]

My apologies to Double X for my oversight in submitting 11 votes, and the inconvienence this may have caused.

Thanks. Mistakes happen and fortunately it didn't really affect the outcome of this election in anyway. Please feel free to vote in the 2009 election if you haven't already.