McGwire in if no wait period?

[Appling]

I sometimes wonder: if the Baseball Hall of Fame had no mandatory waiting period, might McGwire have been elected in 2002 (which would have been his first year of eligibility)?

Mark retired after the 2001 season. Had he retired after the 2000 season he would have entered HOF voting with the MLB record for "Most Homeruns in a Single Season" (70 in 1998) -- but Bonds spoiled that in 2001.
McGwire also has MLB's highest rate of homeruns per AB for a career (9.42% for Mac, better than #2 Ruth at 8.50%). His 583 career homeruns placed him #5 on the all-tme list for career homeruns.

We all knew something was amiss when Mac hit 70 homeruns in 1998 and 65 in 1999. Lots of players had suddenly started hitting high homerun totals, but at the time I thought it was attributable to tighter strike zones, a livlier baseball , better conditioning of players -- but not to cheating that gave some players a special advantage. Mac was open about his use of some 'roids but as prescribed by a doctor for his back pain -- totally within Federal law and not yet outlawed by baseball. I thought he was ok.

Only three players have hit 50 or more homeruns in four different seasons:
* Ruth in 1920,1921, 1927 and 1928;
* McGwire in 1996, 97, 98 and 99; and
* Sosa in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001.
(Barry has only one season of 50 or more homeruns in his career.)

But Barry Bonds hurt McGwire's HOF chances in two ways:
* He shattered Mac's single-season HR record, just three years after it was set; and
* His fantastic improvement so late in life brought close attention to a suspicion that players might be using PED's.

WHAT OTHER PLAYERS MIGHT HAVE BEEN ELECTED TO THE HALL OF FAME IF THERE WERE NO 5-YEAR WAITING PERIOD? Certainly Pete Rose!

Perhaps Lee Smith as well? (He retired with the MLB record for career saves.)

[Brad Harris]

I can't think of anyone else for whom the voters' perspective changed so drastically between their retirement and their eligibility.

Yes, absolutely. Both McGwire and Rose would have been inducted had they been eligible for the first election following their retirement.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Steve Garvey was enormously popular in his day. Outside of Rose, Reggie and maybe Tom Seaver the most well-known outside of diehard fans. He certainly had the HOF tag placed on him during his career. Without taking that step back for a deeper look that the wait period forces he very well might have gotten in if the wait period did not exist.

[KCGHOST]

No doubt McGwire would have been elected on the first ballot by a wide margin.

[Matt1901]

I was looking at the All-Century Team just the other day. Mark McGwire's inclusion certainly seemed out of place. And while that was a fan vote, I don't think the baseball writers were too far off the general sentiment towards McGwire circa 2000. He was hailed as saving baseball along with Sammy Sosa in their home run race in 1998. That helped baseball get over the cancelled World Series of 1994.

I certainly think that McGwire would have been a lock to go in immediately if there wasn't a waiting period.

McGwire should have had Tom Hagan prepare a better statement to read before the Senate.

[PVNICK]

The only question might have been how high the percentage would be.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I don't think it would have been that clear sailing. McGwire didn't even win the MVP the year he set the record. He likely would have made it, but I also look at Harmon Killebrew, the last man McGwire passed on the all-time HR list, and see he didn't make it until his fourth election. It would not have been with an excessive amount of votes over the minimum because he did lose so much time to injury and did have his share of bad seasons. Hitting .201 in a season, which resonates so much more with the writers than OPS+ does, stands out. Those are two strong caveats.

[PVNICK]

Killebrew played in Minnesota and was probably grossly underrated. I know he had a reputation for the long home runs along with Frank Howard but I cannot imagine it reached Androman's levels. Besides that was twenty years earlier, now (or in '02) the magic numbers were automatic induction. I think the people who would withhold their votes on a first ballot out of spite or under the logic that Ruth and Cobb were not unanimous are long dead. Could you imagine DiMaggio having to wait?

Anyway we can all be thankful that without forseeing all the benefits of the five year wait when the rule was drawn that it exists.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Killebrew played in Minnesota and was probably grossly underrated. I know he had a reputation for the long home runs along with Frank Howard but I cannot imagine it reached Androman's levels. Besides that was twenty years earlier, now (or in '02) the magic numbers were automatic induction. I think the people who would withhold their votes on a first ballot out of spite or under the logic that Ruth and Cobb were not unanimous are long dead. Could you imagine DiMaggio having to wait?

Anyway we can all be thankful that without forseeing all the benefits of the five year wait when the rule was drawn that it exists.

Twenty years ago isn't really that long ago. And we still don't have any unanimous HOF'ers, so if those writers are dead (and I'm sure so many are alive who were voting in 1984) that attitude did not die with them. As for DiMaggio, I've read some voters thought it was too soon, they weren't sure if he was fully retired or not.

The one thing I did hear in the early 80's was Killebrew's low batting average was the biggest drawback against his candidacy. No reason to think it won't hurt McGwire, but not to the same extent. He probably would have gotten in his first year in 2002 based on Appling's proposal, but I am far from convinced it would have been at an incredibly high percentage. he still would have shared the ballot with Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn, so he wasn't even the best candidate.

[fenrir]

mcgwire would of been elected if there was no waiting period, but thank god there is. that fraud belongs nowhere near the hof.

[BlueBlood]

I really don't think the steroid argument should have diminished his chances right after he retired because he had no reason to be in the Hall of Fame to begin with. A bunch of home runs because he swung for the stands at every opportunity, nothing more. Whoop-de-doo. :crazy

[jalbright]

I really don't think the steroid argument should have diminished his chances right after he retired because he had no reason to be in the Hall of Fame to begin with. A bunch of home runs because he swung for the stands at every opportunity, nothing more. Whoop-de-doo. :crazy

Not true. McGwire was quite selective at the plate and drew a good many walks as well. He had 1317 career walks and a .394 career OBP. He was more than a one-dimensional hitter. :lookitup He may have been overrated even absent PED concerns, but without that issue, he is worthy of the HOF IMO.

Jim Albright

[BlueBlood]

A career .263 BA in the modern era is HOF worthy? 1,626 hits in 16 seasons is HOF worthy?

[jalbright]

Not by themselves, no. But when coupled with:

11 All-Star games
91st in MVP shares
78th in career OBP
9th in career slugging percentage
8th in career HR
62nd in career RBI
35th in career walks
11th in career OPS+
83rd in career runs created
72nd in extra base hits and
41st in black ink, not to mention his performance in Win Shares, yes, he is. If you discount some of those accomplishments on the basis of beliefs about his use of PEDs, you at least have an argument, but my post specifically excluded that issue from consideration for the moment.

Jim Albright

[BlueBlood]

I think so much of those stats can be derived from the fact that he did seem to swing for the stands at every opportunity. He earned a lot of walks because pitchers were trying to pitch around him, and of course hitting all of those home runs will lead to MVP votes, etc. All I saw out there was a man hellbent on hitting it out of the park at every opportunity, not some great team player or considerable talent.

His career was short also. 16 seasons with quite a few injury plagued ones. Maybe if he had been able to be productive during those years he could have hurdled over 2,000 hits and 600 homers, making his case slightly more credible. But as the statistics lie at the moment, I just don't see enough there to make him worthy even when you ignore the obvious illegal substance taking.

[mwb]

I would have voted for McGwire in his first year of eligibility, sans steroids allegations. He hit 500 of his HRs in 10 or 11 years. That's an amazing average. He also won a World Series ring. Aside from HRs his numbers weren't great but he was a HR hitter & a great one at that.

[philkid3]

The real tragedy of the McGwire situation for me was how often they were talking about how Ripken and Gwynn were probably the two most loved and respected "good guys" of baseball over their careers.

Before this steroid stuff came up, the third guy in that group was probably Mark McGwire.

[Mike D.]

McGwire's career OPS+ is 163. He was a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Killebrew's was a HUGE 143, and he hit less HR and had a lower average. Sure, the average and HR are era dependent, but the OPS+ isn't.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Steve Garvey was enormously popular in his day. Outside of Rose, Reggie and maybe Tom Seaver the most well-known outside of diehard fans. He certainly had the HOF tag placed on him during his career. Without taking that step back for a deeper look that the wait period forces he very well might have gotten in if the wait period did not exist.


You never know, but I don't think Steve Garvey would have gotten the nod a year after retirement.

Mac would have; most definitely.

I think Mac will get in next year, or the year after. He's been spanked, but there can really be no denying that he was a great player. Really, he's have had to take the Super Creamy Clear Magic Juice Times 100 to have NOT been a legitimately great player.

[Fuzzy Bear]

McGwire's career OPS+ is 163. He was a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Killebrew's was a HUGE 143, and he hit less HR and had a lower average. Sure, the average and HR are era dependent, but the OPS+ isn't.

OPS is era dependent, because BA is a part of OBP; in fact, it's the BIGGEST part of OBP.

Slugging, too, is era dependent; we have had dead ball and lively ball eras.

[Brad Harris]

mcgwire would of been elected if there was no waiting period, but thank god there is. that fraud belongs nowhere near the hof.

Please get off your high horse. The only thing that changed between McGwire's retirement and his Hall eligibility was his congressional testimony. That shouldn't be held against him by the voters. His integrity, sportsmanship, etc. during his career were never questioned by the writers, nor were his accomplishments. The voters have no more facts about McGwire's alleged steroid use now than they did in 2001. They have the slanderous accusations of Jose Canseco and the fact that McGwire refused to act in a similarly shameless manner. As if the voters didn't already have a shameless enough track record for the Hall, how they are handling the "steroids era" is shaping up to be a true low point in the history or their poor judgement.