Current HoFers By Age Group

[wrgptfan]

Historically there are approximately 35 active players at any point in time who will eventually make the HoF - regardless of the number of MLB players. Their breakdown is about 11 future HoFers aged 26 or younger (as of July 1 of the specified year), 12 future HoFers between 27 and 32 years old, and 12 whose current age is 33+. If tradition holds, which 35 active players will be our HoFers using the age beakdowns I have suggested?

[Brad Harris]

Historically there are approximately 35 active players at any point in time who will eventually make the HoF - regardless of the number of MLB players. Their breakdown is about 11 future HoFers aged 26 or younger (as of July 1 of the specified year), 12 future HoFers between 27 and 32 years old, and 12 whose current age is 33+. If tradition holds, which 35 active players will be our HoFers using the age beakdowns I have suggested?

Ages 33 and Over
1. Craig Biggio
2. Barry Bonds
3. Roger Clemens
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Randy Johnson
6. Greg Maddux
7. Pedro Martinez
8. Mike Piazza
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Mariano Rivera
11. Ivan Rodriguez
12. Frank Thomas
--------------------------
Ages 27-32
1. Lance Berkman
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Adam Dunn
4. Vladimir Guerrero
5. Roy Halladay
6. Tim Hudson
7. Andrew Jones
8. Roy Oswalt
9. Albert Pujols
10. Alex Rodriguez
11. Scott Rolen
12. Johan Santana
--------------------------
Ages 26 and Under
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Carl Crawford
3. Prince Fielder
4. Scott Kazmir
5. Joe Mauer
6. Jake Peavy
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Dontrelle Willis
10. David Wright
11. Carlos Zambrano

[Sockeye]

Ages 33 and Over
1. Craig Biggio
2. Barry Bonds
3. Roger Clemens
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Tom Glavine
6. Greg Maddux
7. Jim Thome
8. Mike Piazza
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Gary Sheffield
11. Sammy Sosa
12. Frank Thomas
--------------------------
Ages 27-32
1. Lance Berkman
2. Troy Glaus
3. Adam Dunn
4. Vladimir Guerrero
5. Mark Teixeira
6. Johan Santana
7. Andrew Jones
8. Aramis Ramirez
9. Albert Pujols
10. Alex Rodriguez
11. Scott Rolen
12. Alfonso Soriano
--------------------------
Ages 26 and Under
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Carl Crawford
3. Prince Fielder
4. Justin Morneau
5. Joe Mauer
6. Jake Peavy
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Jeff Francouer
10. David Wright
11. B.J Upton

[MadHatter]

Ages 27-32
1. Lance Berkman
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Adam Dunn
8. Roy Oswalt


Good list - though I disagree with those listed above. And where's Ortiz, Schilling, Konerko & Thome?

[Senor Octobre]

though I disagree with those listed above

I can understnd you disagreeing with Dunn & Buehrle, but Oswalt?!?!? He's the Johan Santana of the NL! Berkman is also a fine player, MUCH better than Konerko.

[RuthMayBond]

Ages 26 and Under
9. Jeff Francouer
Francouer is a corner OF with an OPS+ of 103

[RuthMayBond]

Ages 33 and Over
1. Craig Biggio
2. Barry Bonds
3. Roger Clemens
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Tom Glavine
6. Greg Maddux
7. Jim Thome
8. Mike Piazza
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Gary Sheffield
11. Sammy Sosa
12. Frank Thomas
--------------------------
Ages 27-32
1. Lance Berkman
2. Troy Glaus
3. Adam Dunn
4. Vladimir Guerrero
5. Mark Teixeira
6. Johan Santana
7. Andrew Jones
8. Aramis Ramirez
9. Albert Pujols
10. Alex Rodriguez
11. Scott Rolen
12. Alfonso Soriano
--------------------------
Ages 26 and Under
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Carl Crawford
3. Prince Fielder
4. Justin Morneau
5. Joe Mauer
6. Jake Peavy
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Jeff Francouer
10. David Wright
11. B.J UptonYou don't like pitchers. In your oldest set, you omitted Randy Johnson. In your youngest twenty-three, you have a total of two pitchers.

[ElHalo]

And nobody has Derek Jeter?

[BoSox Rule]

Sockeye also doesn't feel that Pedro is a HOF'er apparently.

[Senor Octobre]

And nobody has Derek Jeter?

By this method...

33+

1. C. Biggio
2. B. Bonds
3. R. Clemens
4. T. Glavine
5. K. Griffey
6. R. Johnson
7. G. Maddux
8. P. Martinez
9. M. Piazza
10. M. Ramirez
11. I. Rodriguez
12. F. Thomas

27-32

1. L. Berkman
2. V. Guerrero
3. R. Halladay
4. T. Hudson
5. A. Jones
6. R. Oswalt
7. A. Pujols
8. A. Rodriguez
9. S. Rolen
10. J. Santana
11. M. Tejada
12. B. Zito

27 & under

1. M. Cabrera
2. P. Fielder
3. F. Hernandez
4. S. Kazmir
5. J. Mauer
6. J. Morneau
7. J. Peavy
8. H. Ramirez
9. G. Sizemore
10. J. Verlander
11. D. Wright

34 active players who I think should and/or will be HOFers...

C. Biggio
B. Bonds
M. Cabrera
R. Clemens
T. Glavine
K. Griffey
V. Guerrero
T. Hoffman
T. Hudson
D. Jeter
R. Johnson
C. Jones
J. Kent
G. Maddux
P. Martinez
J. Mauer
M. Mussina
R. Oswalt
M. Piazza
A. Pujols
M. Ramirez
M. Rivera
A. Rodriguez
I. Rodriguez
J. Santana
C. Schilling
G. Sheffield
G. Sizemore
J. Smoltz
S. Sosa
F. Thomas
J. Thome
J. Verlander
B. Wagner
D. Wright

... I don't know... this is hard

[ElHalo]

27-32

1. L. Berkman
2. V. Guerrero
3. R. Halladay
4. T. Hudson
5. A. Jones
6. R. Oswalt
7. A. Pujols
8. A. Rodriguez
9. S. Rolen
10. J. Santana
11. M. Tejada
12. B. Zito




Looking at these lists, it's pretty clear that there's a bunch of guys over 33 who are being left off, and there's just not enough in that 27-32 age group. Of the twelve guys you have listed, I'd say the only ones with a better than 50% chance of the Hall are ARod, Andruw Jones, Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, and Vlad Guerrero... Guys like Rolen and Zito have essentially zero chance. So the spread might be different than normal.

[Senor Octobre]

Looking at these lists, it's pretty clear that there's a bunch of guys over 33 who are being left off, and there's just not enough in that 27-32 age group.

Yeah thats pretty much what was running through my mind

[Sockeye]

You don't like pitchers. In your oldest set, you omitted Randy Johnson. In your youngest twenty-three, you have a total of two pitchers.

I believe there are a lot more than 35 active players who by the time they retire will be deserving of serious HOFconsideration. Especially among the 33 and over group for which we have a much clearer picture of. There are probably at least 15-20 in that age group alone. The problem is who to remove when cutting the list to 12 from that age group.

From the 32 and younger groups it is still a matter of forecasting. It's harder to accurately forecast pitchers performances since arm injuries tend to play a larger role. So while there may be some pitchers who are on a HOF pace right now there is more of a variable that plays in which could derail the their HOF chances. So if there are two players with similar HOF chances at this point in time and one is a pitcher I went with the position player for this reason.

[RuthMayBond]

I believe there are a lot more than 35 active players who by the time they retire will be deserving of serious HOFconsideration. Especially among the 33 and over group for which we have a much clearer picture of. There are probably at least 15-20 in that age group alone. The problem is who to remove when cutting the list to 12 from that age group.

From the 32 and younger groups it is still a matter of forecasting. It's harder to accurately forecast pitchers performances since arm injuries tend to play a larger role. So while there may be some pitchers who are on a HOF pace right now there is more of a variable that plays in which could derail the their HOF chances. So if there are two players with similar HOF chances at this point in time and one is a pitcher I went with the position player for this reason.I'm thinking even if Randy Johnson dies or pitches like me for a while he's still in

[Baseball Guru]

Originally Posted by Sockeye:
I believe there are a lot more than 35 active players who by the time they retire will be deserving of serious HOFconsideration. Especially among the 33 and over group for which we have a much clearer picture of. There are probably at least 15-20 in that age group alone. The problem is who to remove when cutting the list to 12 from that age group.

From the 32 and younger groups it is still a matter of forecasting.

I agree with this and feel I just couldn't drop my list to just 12 if I really do feel there will be more than that.. I did however keep it to the 35 active players.. Just a little more for the 33+ and a little less from the 27-32 age range...


33+:
C. Biggio
B. Bonds
R. Clemens
T. Glavine
K. Griffey
T. Helton
D. Jeter
R. Johnson
C. Jones
G. Maddux
P. Martinez
M. Piazza
M. Ramirez
I. Rodriguez
I. Suzuki
F. Thomas

27-32:
V. Guerrero
T. Hudson
A. Jones
R. Oswalt
A. Pujols
A. Rodriguez
J. Santana
M. Tejada


27 & under:
M. Cabrera
P. Fielder
R. Howard
J. Mauer
J. Morneau
J. Peavy
H. Ramirez
J. Reyes
G. Sizemore
J. Verlander
D. Wright

[wrgptfan]

Here's just a little bit of a new take on identifying current Hall of Famers.

Over the course of baseball history, there have been the following number of active HoFers in any given year (players only and excluding those players whose credentials were earned almost excusively in the Negro Leagues even if active in MLB - e.g. Satchel Paige), broken down by age group. "Young" identifies players who have not reached their 27th b'day by July 1 of the specified year; "Prime" are those between 27 and 33; "Old" are those 34 or older.

Year Young Prime Old Total
=================================
1871 1 1
1872 2 2
1873 2 2
1874 2 2
1875 3 3
1876 2 2
1877 2 2
1878 3 1 4
1879 4 2 6
1880 9 2 11
1881 9 2 11
1882 10 3 13
1883 9 3 12
1884 9 5 14
1885 7 7 1 15
1886 7 6 2 15
1887 2 11 2 15
1888 6 11 2 19
1889 6 11 3 20
1890 10 11 3 24
1891 11 10 5 26
1892 12 7 7 26
1893 11 7 6 24
1894 11 5 7 23
1895 10 6 6 22
1896 8 8 6 22
1897 10 9 5 24
1898 9 11 2 22
1899 10 13 1 24
1900 11 13 1 25
1901 9 15 3 27
1902 11 12 3 26
1903 10 13 5 28
1904 8 15 8 31
1905 9 13 8 30
1906 9 12 10 31
1907 9 13 8 30
1908 8 13 10 31
1909 9 13 9 31
1910 10 10 9 29
1911 10 7 8 25
1912 15 7 7 29
1913 14 7 8 29
1914 13 10 9 32
1915 14 10 11 35
1916 15 11 10 36
1917 13 14 6 33
1918 11 15 2 28
1919 12 16 28
1920 12 18 30
1921 11 17 5 33
1922 12 16 10 38
1923 15 16 9 40
1924 20 15 12 47
1925 23 12 16 51
1926 21 17 14 52
1927 18 17 17 52
1928 18 17 18 53
1929 17 18 18 53
1930 15 22 16 53
1931 13 24 11 48
1932 14 26 12 52
1933 12 23 16 51
1934 9 22 16 47
1935 7 21 16 44
1936 8 19 14 41
1937 7 14 20 41
1938 8 14 14 36
1939 9 14 13 36
1940 8 13 12 33
1941 12 10 15 37
1942 11 7 13 31
1943 6 3 11 20
1944 6 1 9 16
1945 4 2 10 16
1946 9 9 9 27
1947 11 10 11 32
1948 10 14 4 28
1949 9 14 3 26
1950 7 16 4 27
1951 7 17 3 27
1952 7 16 4 27
1953 9 12 7 28
1954 9 14 7 30
1955 12 11 11 34
1956 15 10 11 36
1957 15 7 11 33
1958 14 8 10 32
1959 14 10 9 33
1960 15 10 7 32
1961 15 9 9 33
1962 15 10 10 35
1963 12 13 10 35
1964 11 16 6 33
1965 11 18 8 37
1966 10 18 8 36
1967 11 19 7 37
1968 12 17 8 37
1969 13 16 8 37
1970 11 13 11 35
1971 11 12 13 36
1972 9 11 15 35
1973 7 12 15 34
1974 7 12 15 34
1975 6 14 13 33
1976 7 13 11 31
1977 7 13 9 29
1978 9 12 9 30
1979 8 10 12 30
1980 6 8 14 28
1981 6 7 15 28
1982 5 7 17 29
1983 3 9 15 27
1984 3 9 13 25
1985 2 10 11 23
1986 2 9 10 21
1987 9 9 18
1988 8 9 17
1989 6 7 13
1990 4 9 13
1991 3 10 13
1992 2 11 13
1993 2 10 12
1994 8 8
1995 7 7
1996 6 6
1997 5 5
1998 3 3
1999 1 1


If we average the number of HoFers active by age group from 1911-1970, we get approximately 11 youngsters, 13 players in their prime and 10 oldsters or a total of 35 players (rounding error). This number includes the war years and some players who are not even eligible yet, so perhaps we should use the average of the years 1921 thru 1970 excluding 1942 thru 1946. Doing so gives us an average of 12 youngsters, 15 players in their prime and 11 oldsters, for a total of 38 active HoFers. Even though we have not had 38 active HoFers in any year since 1937 let's use these numbers as our starting point.

So (finally some of you are undoubtedly saying), which players who are active today will ber in the HoF? Identify 12 future HoFers active in 2007 who were younger than 27 as of July 1, 2007; 15 between the ages of 27 and 33; and 11 older than 33. Clearly identifying the older players should be relatively easy - those in their prime relatively easy, althought it is likely that some players who look as if they should make it will have a career ending injury or a sudden drop-off in productivity. Identifying some of the younger HoFers-to-be is much more difficult (especially since one or two may not have an at-bat in the majors until a September call-up).

Any takers?

(Note: Just doing this myself, I have come upon a bit of a conundrum - there are a LOT of old players who are HoF worthy - more than 11 anyway. I still think that we should limit the number to a max of 38, of whom 12 should be young, but perhaps a bit more flexibility in identifying those in the prime/old category should be allowed).

[Brad Harris]

Didn't we just do this the other week? Jim?

[jalbright]

We did it recently, but I'm not sure what the other thread title was, and am loath to search for it. If someone else can help with that, I'll merge the two threads.

Found it, and the threads are being merged.

Jim Albright