Prince Fielder = This years' Ryan Howard?

[Blackout]

eh?

and will he be better than his dad?

[SamtheBravesFan]

It wouldn't take too much for Prince to beat his dad, I would say. He just has to keep it up.

[natsnsoxfan]

I think hes gonna be better than his dad by quite a bit. And what do you mean by this year's Ryan Howard?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

There is no comparison betwen the two. Fielder played his first full season at age 22, Howard was 26. That is a huge difference in terms of development and upper ceiling. Ryan's 2006 was probably his upper ceiling. Fielder is still about 3-4 years from entering his prime seasons.

[Old Sweater]

Had a inside the park HR yesterday in 17+

Wonder what his ol' mans time would have been if the outfielders couldn't find the ball.

[homercles]

He is a pretty good buy for $415k! OPS/Salary should be a new stat for determining MVP. haha

[ARISTOCRAT]

There is no comparison betwen the two. Fielder played his first full season at age 22, Howard was 26. That is a huge difference in terms of development and upper ceiling. Ryan's 2006 was probably his upper ceiling. Fielder is still about 3-4 years from entering his prime seasons.

Ryans 2006 was probably his upper ceiling? Do explain why you think that was his upper ceiling.

[ARISTOCRAT]

I think Fielder will definitely be better than his dad.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ryans 2006 was probably his upper ceiling? Do explain why you think that was his upper ceiling.

By this I mean this is probably the height of his performance potential. He may be able to match it or come close but I don't believe he will ever surpass his 2006 season in a significant way. But, he doesn't have to. If can perform like 2006 for the next 10 years I think the Phillies will be happy. Age is an important indicator in terms of long term success. If you have two players that are the same in terms of perfomance but one is 21 years old and the other is 25 years old, the 21 year old is more likely to have a far better career. Prince Fielder is just 23 years old. When Howard was 23 years old he was in Single A ball, two and a half years from reaching the majors.

[ARISTOCRAT]

So you don't have a reason for thinking that was the best season he will have, you just think so. Ok, I disagree on the Howard comment. But the rest of what you said about two players with an age difference I'm on board with, but that doesn't mean that Howard won't have the better career, the numbers are just not in his favor right now. But the numbers weren't in his favor coming out of high school or college either.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

So you don't have a reason for thinking that was the best season he will have, you just think so. Ok, I disagree on the Howard comment. But the rest of what you said about two players with an age difference I'm on board with, but that doesn't mean that Howard won't have the better career, the numbers are just not in his favor right now. But the numbers weren't in his favor coming out of high school or college either.
No, Bill James studied this issue at length back in the 80s. He did many comparative studies between players of similar profiles but with a significant age difference. The younger players as a group drastically outperformed the older players over their careers. Put it to you this way. By time Fielder is 25 years old (the age Howard debuted in the majors) he may have 175 HRs. That's a huge head start. Players tend to peak around ages 26-30.

[ARISTOCRAT]

So how does any of that differ from me saying the numbers aren't in his favor?

[ARISTOCRAT]

Now, Prince Fielder in order to get to 150 home runs by the age of 25, he is going to have to hit 119 home runs in less than two seasons, I don't think the numbers are in favor of him doing that. That being said, the Bill James study you bring up makes a lot of sense, althought I'm not completely on board with the majority of players peaks falling between the ages of 26-30, I don't think that is the case anymore.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Now, Prince Fielder in order to get to 150 home runs by the age of 25, he is going to have to hit 119 home runs in less than two seasons, I don't think the numbers are in favor of him doing that. That being said, the Bill James study you bring up makes a lot of sense, althought I'm not completely on board with the majority of players peaks falling between the ages of 26-30, I don't think that is the case anymore.
i'm counting the entire 2009 season as that is Fielder's age 25 season, so that's 2 and a half seasons still yet to go. My point is that Fielder has had a substantial head start in Howard.

[KCGHOST]

I guess the reference to another big, burly, not so fast, powerhitting, lefthanded 1B is apt. Fielder looks like he is going to put up a monster season similar to Howard's 2006.

Long time it is difficult not to prefer Fielder.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I guess the reference to another big, burly, not so fast, powerhitting, lefthanded 1B is apt. Fielder looks like he is going to put up a monster season similar to Howard's 2006.

Long time it is difficult not to prefer Fielder.
Even physically, they don't resemble each other. Howard is 6'4" 230 lbs, while Fielder is 6'0" 262 pounds. Howard resembles Willie McCovey while Fielder resembles his father. :)