View Full Version : Rickey Henderson: Unanimous Selection?
jhwinfrey
02-02-2003, 08:53 AM
I know, I know, Rickey's not yet retired but these are the kind of things I like to think about during these cruel last 2 weeks before spring training.
Ok, so maybe the BBWAA's politics will prevent Henderson from getting 100% of the votes, but how close will he come? 98%? 95%?
He's got some pretty incredible numbers, the best this side of Rose, Cobb, or Aaron in some categories:
Career leader:
Runs-2288
Walks-2179 (though he may no longer have this when he's on the ballot)
Stolen Baes- 1403
2nd in Power/Speed Number - 487.5
3rd in Times on Base - 5316
4th in Games - 3051
10th in At Bats - 10889
21st in Hits - 3040
1990 AL MVP
Top 10 MVP voting 5 other times
10-time all star
10 Most similar comps:
HOFers Brock, Morgan, Kaline, Yount, B.Robinson, Winfield.
Molitor, Raines, Staub, and Pinson.
And he does very well on the HOF tests:
Black Ink: Batting - 50 (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 143 (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 52.5 (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 194.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)
Ok, so shoot me down...why won't BBWAA members vote for Henderson?
BigRedMachine
02-02-2003, 09:07 AM
First ballot with 85-95% of the vote.
Ram Man
02-02-2003, 09:48 AM
I selected 85-95% although I would not be surprised to see him fall short of 85% depending on who else is on the ballot that year. Not that Henderson doesn't deserve a very high percentage, but he has had some "issues" from time to time throughout his career and I'm sure some voters will hold those against him. Based on the numbers on the field, however, he is a sure first ballot (not that the ballot matters) HOFer.
rockin500
02-02-2003, 11:08 AM
first ballot 75-85%. there will be 5% right off the bat who will say no, not first time. then you will probably get another 10% or so who will want him to wait a year cuz he's Rickey.
Cubbies for life
02-02-2003, 11:07 PM
There's no dispute that Rickey Henderson will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He currently holds three major league career records (Stolen bases, runs, walks) along with many others.The stolen base career and single season record was shattered by him and will stand the test of time.
Captain Cold Nose
02-03-2003, 06:25 AM
No one will ever be unanimous. Simply because writers will turn in blank ballots just because. Rickey will clear 90% and Rickey will celebrate because Rickey am one of the greatest.
brewcrew82
02-03-2003, 06:38 AM
Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
No one will ever be unanimous......
Agreed!
If the Babe couldn't get in unanimously nobody should!!
Rickey will get in first ballot with between 85 and 95%.
bballfan
02-03-2003, 08:39 PM
I got to agree with BrewCrew82, if the Babe wasn't unamimous, no one should. But, I think he deserves the first ballot and should get between 85 - 95%... Don't be surprise if he gets more, if you break the HOF voters down by region, I see him cleaning up on the East and West Coast.
Hammerin Hank
02-03-2003, 08:42 PM
It's nice to see that no one's voted that he won't get in his first year of eligibility. I'd have to send my goons to break their legs:laugh . Some call me a cynic...
Steffo
02-03-2003, 08:56 PM
I picked 85-95% because Henderson is such a snob and there are the people that think that no-one should go in first ballot. His career was quite astounding though
Wait, you can you not like Rickey? I mean, he Rickey! Rickey just love bein' Rickey!
Personally, I don't see an argument not putting him in first ballot. Even the ace-in-the-hole argument, Joe DiMaggio, doesn't hold that much water here.
But yes, Rickey just be Rickey and some writers can't see past that. Shame on them if that's their reasoning.
85-95%
Cougar
02-03-2003, 10:48 PM
Rickey should be unanimous, because it's virtually impossible to imagine a HOF without a man with his achievements in it.
BUT...his BA is now below .280 at .279...it's been dropping like a stone as he's turned in sub-.250 BA every season since 1996, except for his stunning 1999 with the Mets.
That fact along will scare off some of the old guard and knock him below 95%
Brad Harris
02-04-2003, 08:43 AM
Originally posted by jhwinfrey
...why won't BBWAA members vote for Henderson?
Any number of reasons...the most prominent of which is likely to be Henderson's perceived personality/ego.
Some writers may attribute his career totals solely to his longevity.
Some writers may seriously deflate the value of a stolen base.
Some writers may not think anyone should be elected on the first ballot if his name isn't Ruth, Cobb, etc.
Some writers may have a hard time recognizing greatness in a player who switched teams 11 times (and counting).
Some writers may refuse to vote for anyone they didn't see much of (as one writer mentioned about his ballot last month - he didn't cover the NL so he couldn't vote for Sandberg because he'd never watched him play much).
Voters are required only to have been BBWAA members for 10 years. Rickey will be retired 5 years before he's eligible. Assuming he retires without playing any more games (which is, I think, a big assumption, actually), you're looking at some voters who will be judging a Rickey Henderson that they only saw play from 1998-2002.
Think of his quiet career in the 1990s after being crowned the stolen base king. That's another 5+ years of writers who will be voting then who weren't writing baseball stories for a newspaper when Henderson was in his prime.
Some writers might not believe a leadoff hitter belongs - no matter if he's the best ever or not.
Others will think that Rickey had fewer than 300 career home runs. I can picture it now "He should have had more in such a homer-happy era like the late 1990s."
Yeah...there's all kinds of reasons some idiot voter might decide not to give Henderson his vote - perhaps a personal grudge of some kind? (Like the axe the late Earl Lawson liked to grind over the head of one-time candidate Vada Pinson.)
Maybe a voter will have already filled in a few names and doesn't believe he should vote for more than 3 players? Or 5?
Maybe he prioritizes some shmuck like Steve Garvey or Tommy John over Henderson because those guys are on their final ballot and, if they don't get in then, they "never" will?
Who knows?
Like I said...no matter how much failure to cast a vote for Henderson will fly in the face of common sense, that won't stop at least one writer.
It hasn't in the past.
jhwinfrey
02-04-2003, 04:22 PM
Is the Hall of Fame a popularity contest?
Despite Rickey's career numbers, I could easily see Cal Ripken, Jr., or Mark McGwire voted in by a higher % than our pal Rickey be Rickey....
For evidence of how the BBWAA weighs career numbers vs. popularity/name recognition just look at past ballots:
(good career numbers & low popularity)
Eddie Murray--only 85%
compared to:
(borderline career numbers & high popularity)
Ozzie Smith -- first ballot at 92%
Kirby Puckett -- first ballot at 82%
Appling
02-05-2003, 05:21 PM
I suspect there are some writers who have NEVER voted for ANY PLAYER on his first ballot. (Any way to check on this??)
Still others may leave him off just to be sure that Henderson isn't the first UNANIMOUS choice.
But he is the best lead-off hitter of all time -- as well as the career record-holder for stolen bases, runs and walks -- so who could honestly say that Rickey Henderson doesn't belong?
Could've bet on baseball.
:D
Sandman
02-08-2003, 12:32 PM
Well, it depends who else is going in around him.
Steffo
02-08-2003, 03:53 PM
Sandman, normally I would agree, but there are always people who don't vote for clear selections or first timers only because they believe no-one should go in first ballot.
Sandman
02-08-2003, 04:06 PM
That's just plain bull. They should be voting for who is the most worthy.
I'd like to see the situation in a couple years when these guys are going to be on the ballot: McGwire, Ripken, Boggs, Gwynn, Canseco
Steffo
02-08-2003, 04:48 PM
It may not be right, but it is true. Some people don't think you are worthy on first ballot. I don't know why. They all have different reasoning.
I voted "Yes", First Ballot and I would guess approx 83%.
I am still puzzled how Ozzie Smith got into the HOF just because of the Gold Glove Awards.:confused:
Smith was one of the most recognizable faces of his era, and of course, it is the Hall of Fame. He was also a media darling. Plus, I refer to Sandman:
"Well, it depends on who else is going in around him."
For all reasons, he turned out to be a first-ballot choice with a comparatively high percentage of vote.
Such it is with all selection processes in poll format.
As far as all his gold gloves... I think because of today's game, that people forget what defense used to mean concerning shortstops around the league. There weren't too many offensive forces at short all the way through the 80's. So, for certain shortstops who couldn't hit too well, their stats were thrown out in lieu of their defense. Aparicio and Smith fit that bill.
Appling
02-10-2003, 10:53 AM
Still hard for me to believe that Ozzie Smith is in the HOF but Vern Stephens is not. Of course Smith had a longer career.
Sandman
02-12-2003, 03:37 PM
I see no reason why Henderson wouldnt be a 90%+ or even a unanimus first ballot. He is arguably the best baseball player of all time
Cougar
02-12-2003, 04:53 PM
Easy, Sandman.
Up in heaven, Babe Ruth is choking on his hot dog.
The only basis to make such a claim is based on the career runs scored record, which is I guess what you're thinking of.
That's fine, as far as it goes, but if you look it at seasonal averages, or figure out career runs produced (runs scored + RBI - HR), Henderson is way down the list.
He's a HOF, and he should get 90%+, but best player ever is a bit too strong.
Sandman
02-12-2003, 05:07 PM
Thats why I said arguably :D
Putting yourself in scoring postion with steals, and scoring more runs than anyone else. If he comes back to play this season, he'll end up with 300 HRs and 1150 RBI, which is insane for a speedy leadoff hitter.
Appling
02-13-2003, 01:41 PM
Originally posted by Sandman
I see no reason why Henderson wouldnt be a 90%+ or even a unanimous first ballot. He is arguably the best baseball player of all time
Best LEADOFF HITTER of all time -- probably yes; but surely not the best PLAYER of all time -- even though he certainly owns some important career-total records (SB, BB, and Runs).
Some day someone should be unanimous choice for HOF but not Henderson. Rickey should be a certain first-ballot but SOME voters will not vote him on first ballot just because of his career BA (.280), a few will hold back because of his personality.
So who WILL be the first UNANIMOUS Choice in the Hall of Fame? I predict either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens.
Sandman
02-13-2003, 02:19 PM
heh. Bonds and Clemens wont get unanimous. Theyll go in at the same time :p
Well, you can't really differentiate between some players becuase the position and the role on the teams they played on are significantly different, but I know in my dream line up, Henderson leads off, and Ruth bats clean up :)
Originally posted by Appling
So who WILL be the first UNANIMOUS Choice in the Hall of Fame? I predict either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens.
You kiddin? There are writers out there just waiting to leave them off their ballot!
And of course, we'll never know who they are... :laugh
The first unanimous selection might be one Alex Rodriguez, but the BBWAA would need a lil' reform in their thinking first.
sopclod
02-13-2003, 06:43 PM
Originally posted by Appling
So who WILL be the first UNANIMOUS Choice in the Hall of Fame? I predict either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens.
That's a good question. I think if Bonds gets Aaron's HR record then he will be unanimous. I think that if Clemens never pitched another inning he probably would be too. I don't like him personally but the guy's got it all: wins, era, strikeouts, longevity, winning %, lots of playoffs and WS, etc.
Ram Man
02-13-2003, 06:49 PM
Originally posted by sopclod
I don't like him personally
And that's why he won't be unanimous. There are going to be voters that don't like him personally either. Same for Bonds.
depstein
02-16-2003, 02:59 PM
If A-Rod keeps going the way he has been, he will come pretty close to unanimous
YankeeMan
02-22-2003, 10:00 AM
Originally posted by Sandman
I see no reason why Henderson wouldnt be a 90%+ or even a unanimus first ballot. He is arguably the best baseball player of all time
Have you lost your mind? No one has EVER been selected unanimously to the HoF (not Babe Ruth, not Cy Young, nor Ty Cobb) and Rickey's the "best baseball player of all time." He's not even in my best 9 of All-Time!
Sandman
02-22-2003, 01:18 PM
Well, who's going in around Henderson? As it looks right now, it'll be a bunch of piles of crap.
That depends on when he FINALLY retires, Sandman. :laugh
I'll agree the class of '08 doesn't look so hot right now... but please take back your statement that Tim Raines is "crap". If I had a vote he'd have mine.
Biggtone23
02-24-2003, 08:50 AM
If Henderson retires after this year he will likely be on the same ballot as Roger Clemens, David Wells, Matt Williams and possibly Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux and who knows who else. Out of these 6 he will only rank 4th in votes behind Clemens, Johnson and Maddux. He is too cocky, played for too many teams and some would say for too many years.
Originally posted by Biggtone23
If Henderson retires after this year he will likely be on the same ballot as Roger Clemens, David Wells, Matt Williams and possibly Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux and who knows who else. Out of these 6 he will only rank 4th in votes behind Clemens, Johnson and Maddux. He is too cocky, played for too many teams and some would say for too many years.
I don't think Johnson or Maddux will hang it up after this year... in which case it will be Henderson and Clemens. And considering how many writers "love" Roger, you might be surprised how close those two percentages will be.
Hammerin Hank
02-24-2003, 09:33 PM
I'll state that I voted 85-95% and I believe Rickey will get near 95% of the votes. Although I think the longer he continues playing the lower that will drop, almost regardless of how he does. Afterall, it's not like he's going to get ot play full time because of his age no matter how well he does. He could end up with an OPS of 1.200 and it won't help his HOF votes. That's why last season really should've been his last.
Cougar
02-24-2003, 11:42 PM
2002 still might be Rickey's last year -- he doesn't have a job yet.
I think he's trying to crash Colorado's camp as a NRI. (What better place to get those last 5 HR?)
But there's no guarantee someone will find a roster spot for him this year. He only plays LF, poorly (and most rosters have 10 guys that can play LF at least poorly in a pinch), and he can't really hit anymore, although he redeems himself by drawing walks. He's still fast, but not like he was. Plus he's never a happy camper as a part time player, which is all he can be at this stage.
So it's tough to think of a team that isn't better off giving their 5th OF spot to a AAA player with some promise. Colorado might be one...their OF doesn't look like much, outside of Walker and Wilson.
Sandman
02-26-2003, 12:05 PM
Originally posted by J W
That depends on when he FINALLY retires, Sandman. :laugh
I'll agree the class of '08 doesn't look so hot right now... but please take back your statement that Tim Raines is "crap". If I had a vote he'd have mine.
I dont remember saying Tim Raines is crap. I remember saying he belongs in the hall
Sandman
02-26-2003, 12:06 PM
Originally posted by Cougar
2002 still might be Rickey's last year -- he doesn't have a job yet.
I think he's trying to crash Colorado's camp as a NRI. (What better place to get those last 5 HR?)
But there's no guarantee someone will find a roster spot for him this year. He only plays LF, poorly (and most rosters have 10 guys that can play LF at least poorly in a pinch), and he can't really hit anymore, although he redeems himself by drawing walks. He's still fast, but not like he was. Plus he's never a happy camper as a part time player, which is all he can be at this stage.
So it's tough to think of a team that isn't better off giving their 5th OF spot to a AAA player with some promise. Colorado might be one...their OF doesn't look like much, outside of Walker and Wilson.
Their outfield doesnt look like much, outside 2/3 of it, so you're saying that Jay Payton doesn't deserve to start in Center?
Cougar
02-26-2003, 05:11 PM
Newly-acquired Preston Wilson (you'll know him as Mookie's kid)will start in CF.
Jay Payton probably will start in LF, and he's not bad, but I think he'll produce average numbers at best. (Adjusted for Coors.)
And there's not much in the way of backups.
Sandman
02-27-2003, 02:16 PM
Payton hit 333 last season In coors. Also, the Rockies have a LOT more power in their lineup to say the least. Payton will see a lot of pitches
Cougar
02-27-2003, 02:22 PM
Originally posted by Sandman
Payton hit 333 last season In coors. Also, the Rockies have a LOT more power in their lineup to say the least. Payton will see a lot of pitches
He hit .333 in 179 AB with half those AB at Coors. Big deal.
Jay Payton just isn't that good. He'll start, and probably do fine, but he's an ordinary major league player.
Anyway, we're talking about Rickey. Who's the Rockies' 4th OF? Nobody very good. So Rickey's got a shot at earning a job.
Sandman
02-27-2003, 02:36 PM
Jay Payton is an outstanding player. He's strong, he's a great fielder, and he gives 111%, he's just been stuck in New York, at the Bottom of a lineup where nobody has done too well. If you've seen him play, you'd say otherwise/
Seattle1
07-10-2006, 02:20 PM
Not exactly going out on a limb here, but I said "First Ballot, with 85%-95% of the vote." He'll go in on the first ballot for sure, but there's no way it could be unanimous. And I'm pretty sure it won't be with 95%+ of the vote either.
I wonder if he'll go in as an Oakland Athletic or some other team (Yankees)? I think probably Oakland. That's where he stole 130 bases in one season, that's who he played the most games for.
538280
07-10-2006, 06:42 PM
Rickey is a truly unbelieveable player-I have him #11 all time and the lowest I could possibly see him is probably about #20. He is one of the best baseball players ever and should have not problem making it in on the first ballot. He does have a tendency to get under some people's skin, though (not mine, he's one of my favorite players of all time), and that will cost him 95% or higher on the ballot. I say 85%-95%.