Future 400 home run club members [Archive]

John Shoemaker

04-27-2007, 01:14 PM

I voted very conservatively. I'm just not sure with the "crack-down" (NPI) on roids that they will continue at as rapid a pace. For some - I mean...:shhh:

Since more pitchers than hitters failed drug tests last year maybe the crackdown will actually increase homerun totals.

Captain Cold Nose

04-27-2007, 01:18 PM

CCN, you really think Pujols wont hit 400, but Ryan Howard, who has like 170 less HR and is the same age, will?

Truly in my heart I do.

It was a little mistake on my part. Nothing more.

natsnsoxfan

04-27-2007, 01:19 PM

CCN, you really think Pujols wont hit 400, but Ryan Howard, who has like 170 less HR and is the same age, will?

I completely agree. You could put Pujols in a "Which of these players will hit 700 Homerun?" poll and he would get a ton of votes, let alone 400.

hudsonharden

04-29-2007, 12:51 AM

I think a bunch of these guys will, but it's so hard to speculate for some of them this early in their careers. Also, soon 400 HRs will an almost meaningless number, like 2000 Hits.

John Shoemaker

04-29-2007, 06:46 PM

I think a bunch of these guys will, but it's so hard to speculate for some of them this early in their careers. Also, soon 400 HRs will an almost meaningless number, like 2000 Hits.

400 homeruns will never be meaningless nor will 2000 hits.

Sockeye

04-29-2007, 07:46 PM

Alright so lets discuss a few of these players.

Ryan Klesko

272 career home runs in 5287 at-bats at the age of 36. 1 HR every 19.4 AB's. Not a bad ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2488 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 4 seasons (27 HR in 887 AB's) 1 HR every 32.9 AB. At that pace he would need another 4205 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 36 given his decreased playing time I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 128 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

Sockeye

04-29-2007, 07:54 PM

Brian Giles

261 career home runs in 5357 at-bats at the age of 36. 1 HR every 20.5 AB's. Decent ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2853 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 5 seasons (73 HR in 2347 AB's) 1 HR every 32.2 AB. At that pace he would need another 4468 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 36 and playing in an extremely pitcher friendly ballpark I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 139 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

Sockeye

04-29-2007, 08:04 PM

Cliff Floyd

214 career home runs in 4832 at-bats at the age of 34. 1 HR every 22.5 AB's. Fair ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4200 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 42 he would need to average 525 AB's per season. A number he has only reached 3 times in his 14 seasons. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 2 seasons (12 HR in 389 AB's) 1 HR every 32.4 AB. At that pace he would need another 6030 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 34 and given his history of injuries I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 186 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

Sockeye

04-29-2007, 08:10 PM

Nomar Garciaparra

212 career home runs in 4922 at-bats at the age of 33. 1 HR every 23.2 AB's. So-so ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4365 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 41 he would need to average 546 AB's per season. A number he has only reached 4 times in his 11 seasons. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 4 seasons (39 HR in 1110 AB's) 1 HR every 28.5 AB. At that pace he would need another 5351 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 33 and given his history of injuries I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 188 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

Sockeye

04-29-2007, 08:17 PM

Bobby Abreu

206 career home runs in 5363 at-bats at the age of 33. 1 HR every 26.0 AB's. Not a good ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 5051 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 42 he would need to average 561 AB's per season. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 2 seasons (16 HR in 635 AB's) 1 HR every 39.7 AB. At that pace he would need another 7700 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 33 and given his history of injuries I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 194 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

mwb

04-29-2007, 11:15 PM

I said yes for Chipper, Giambi, A.Jones, Vladimir & Pujols.

The players under 200 HRs but still very young are tough to project. In fact of the players I selected, I'm really only confident of Chipper getting there. Despite small ballparks, poor pitching & performance enhancing drugs, it's still hard to hit 400 HRs.

mwb

04-29-2007, 11:21 PM

Now that I've voted, the only players with more than 20 votes that I didn't vote for are Ortiz, Dunn & Cabrera. I think Ortiz has found his stroke too late in his career to get to 400. Dunn could flameout or get to 500, it's hard to say. Cabrera is a tremendous player but it's hard to predict how long he will play & whether he'll hit for average, power or both as his career progresses.

Westlake

04-29-2007, 11:45 PM

Truly in my heart I do.

It was a little mistake on my part. Nothing more.

Ok. I wasn't trying to make you look foolish, just a question.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 06:33 AM

Moises Alou

321 career home runs in 6743 at-bats at the age of 40 (will be 41 in July) 1 HR every 21.0 AB's. Decent ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1660 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 43 he would need to average 554 AB's per season. A number he has only reached 3 times in 15 seasons. At the age of 40 and given his history of injuries I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 79 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 06:43 AM

Ivan Rodriguez

280 career home runs in 7832 at-bats at the age of 35. 1 HR every 28.0 AB's. Poor ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3357 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 41 he would need to average 560 AB's per season. A number he has only reached 4 times in 16 seasons. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 5 seasons (65 HR in 2176 AB's) 1 HR every 33.5 AB. At that pace he would need another 4018 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 35 and considering the wear and tear on his body having spent 17 seasons catching. I would have to conclude his chances of hitting another 120 home runs to be close to if not impossible.

Captain Cold Nose

04-30-2007, 06:48 AM

Ok. I wasn't trying to make you look foolish, just a question.

An honest one. My response wasn't defensive in nature. Call it a sheepish attempt at humor after a mistake on my behalf.

To legitimately answer the question, although I quite agree with John in saying 400 HR has long since lost its lustre, Pujols, Vlad, Chipper and Andruw Jones are more than likely. Ortiz, Dunn and Cabrera should. I like Berkman's chances. Giambi could fall off tomorrow, same with Sexson. Texeira has a solid chance. As for Howard, if he continues as an elite hitter, yes. But there are ifs there.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 07:11 AM

Jeff Kent

347 career home runs in 7656 at-bats at the age of 39. 1 HR every 22.1 AB's. Fair ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1170 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 40 he would need to average 585 AB's per season. A number he has only reached 3 times in 15 seasons. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 2 seasons (16 HR in 499 AB's) 1 HR every 31.2 AB. At that pace he would need another 1653 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 39 while I wouldn't declare it impossible, I would certainly think it rather unlikely. For it to happen Kent will need to play through 2009 or until age 41, stay healthy, and remain productive. He'll need to average about 390 AB's and/or 18 HR per season.

KCGHOST

04-30-2007, 09:05 AM

Chipper Jones
Jason Giambi
Andruw Jones
Vladimir Guerrero
Albert Pujols
Adam Dunn

Some of the guys are a little young, despite great starts, to put in this class.

John Shoemaker

04-30-2007, 10:52 AM

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 11:32 AM

It would probably be easier on him in his last years if he could move to a less demanding position than second base - but even if he doesn't get to 400 he'll have the homerun record for second baseman by a long ways. What a great player.

Seldom do we see a player playing 2B in there 40's. I'm amazed that Craig Biggio is still playing 2B everyday at age 41. Kent could be moved to 1B or end up DHing if he so chooses. Either way though he'll have to stick around to 2009 to have a shot at reaching 400 home runs. If he does decide to play that long his other numbers which are already impressive will be that much better. He'll stand a good chance at 1500+ RBI, 2500+ hits, 1400+ runs,
and possibly 2000+ games at second base.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 11:42 AM

Luis Gonzalez

335 career home runs in 8436 at-bats at the age of 39 (turns 40 in september). 1 HR every 25.2 AB's. Poor ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1637 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. Even if playing til age 41 he would need to average 546 AB's per season. Furthermore his HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 2 seasons (19 HR in 670 AB's) 1 HR every 35.3 AB. At that pace he would need another 2293 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 39 (40 by season's end) while I wouldn't declare it impossible, I would certainly think it rather unlikely. For it to happen Gonzalez will need to play through 2009 or until age 42, stay healthy, and remain productive. He'll need to average about 546 AB's and/or 22 HR per season.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 12:19 PM

Magglio Ordonez

223 career home runs in 4793 at-bats at the age of 33. 1 HR every 21.5 AB's. Decent ratio. But even keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3804 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 40 he would need to average 476 AB's per season. Not an unreasonable total by any means. His HR/AB ratio has declined over the past 4 seasons though (45 HR in 1188 AB's) 1 HR every 26.4 AB. At that pace he would need another 4673 AB's to reach 400 HR. At the age of 33 it is possible for him to reach the 400 homer plateau providing he remains healthy, productive, and wants to play that long. In addition to averaging 476 AB's per season over that time span he'll also need to average 23 home runs per season. Considering that he hasn't hit more than 24 homeruns in any of the past 3 seasons (2 of which were injury plagued) I'm a bit skeptical as to his chances of maintaining his current production levels late into his 30's. So while I would say it's possible, it is a bit of a long shot.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 03:59 PM

Pat Burrell

I must say that I'm some what surprised that Burrell hasn't received a vote yet (0/42) I suspect most people here doesn't feel he'll have a long career. 189 career home runs in 3596 at-bats at the age of 30. 1 HR every 19.0 AB's. Good ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4015 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he only plays til age 37 he would only need to average 502 AB's per season. Not an unreasonable total by any means. He has surpassed that number of AB's in 4 of his 7 seasons so far. At the age of 30 he still he should have another 3-4 years in his prime before he starts to decline. He'll need to average 26.4 homers per year for the next 8 years to reach 400. He's averaged 26.8 homers per season in his first 7 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he should have a decent shot at 400 career home runs.

Cubsfan97

04-30-2007, 04:24 PM

Kinda hard not to vote for Andrew Jones and Vlad when they are considered for 500, and possibly 550-600.

Sockeye

04-30-2007, 05:00 PM

Jermaine Dye

Another player that I'm suprised hasn't received more votes. 241 career home runs in 4963 at-bats at the age of 33. 1 HR every 20.6 AB's. Decent ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3275 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 40 he would need to average 409 AB's per season. Not an unreasonable total by any means. Playing til age 40 will be the test. At the age of 33 he should be nearing the end of his prime however he is coming off a career year having hit 44 home runs last season. He'll need to average 19.9 homers per year for the next 8 years to reach 400. He's averaged 21.5 homers per season in his first 11 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until age 40 Dye should have a fair shot at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-01-2007, 05:19 PM

Travis Hafner

123 career home runs in 1855 at-bats at the age of 29 (turns 30 in june). 1 HR every 15.1 AB's. Great ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4178 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If playing til age 40 he would need to average 379 AB's per season. Very possible if he is able to stay healthy, keep up his high rate of production, and play into his late 30's. What hurts Hafner is that he got such a late start to his career and yet having to manage so much as 500 AB's in a season. For him to reach 400 career homers the next 3-4 years will be crucial. I would say he needs to hit 40+ homers in each of his next 3 seasons to have a chance. If he can do that then have another few 30+ homer seasons at ages 33-35 followed by a normal decline and it's possible. One lost season due to injury though and his chances are slim in my opinion.

Sockeye

05-03-2007, 08:35 PM

Vernon Wells

145 career home runs in 3342 at-bats at the age of 28. 1 HR every 23.0 AB's. So-so ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 5878 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 39 he would need to average 490 AB's per season. Not an unreasonable total but doesn't allow much room for injuries or a slow down in production. At the age of 28 he still he should have another 3-4 years in his prime before he starts to decline. He'll need to average 21.3 homers per year for the next 12 years to reach 400. He's averaged 27.8 homers per season in his last 5 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until age 39 he'll have a shot at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-03-2007, 08:50 PM

Jason Bay

101 career home runs in 1769 at-bats at the age of 28. 1 HR every 17.5 AB's. Very good ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 5237 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 38 he would need to average 476 AB's per season. Not an unreasonable amount but doesn't allow much room for injuries or more importantly a slow down in production. I think it will be hard for him to maintain that ratio. At the age of 28 he still should have another 3-4 years in his prime before he starts to decline. He got a late start on his career so the next 4-5 years will be crucial to his chances. He'll need to average 27.2 homers per year for the next 11 years to reach 400. He's averaged 31.0 homers per season in his last 3 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, very productive, and can last until at least age 38 he'll have a shot at 400 career home runs. I would think it a bit of a long shot though given his late start and the rate of production he'll need to maintain to reach that number.

Sockeye

05-05-2007, 11:48 AM

Hank Blalock

107 career home runs in 2678 at-bats at the age of 26. 1 HR every 25.0 AB's. Poor ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 7334 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 40 he would need to average 524 AB's per season. That is a lot of at-bats to average for that amout of time. He'll need to average 20.9 homers per year for the next 14 years to reach 400. He's averaged 25.5 homers per season in his first 4 full seasons. Providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until age 40 he'll have a shot at 400 career home runs. I would think it rather unlikely though.

Sockeye

05-05-2007, 12:10 PM

Ryan Howard

86 career home runs in 1022 at-bats at the age of 27. 1 HR every 11.9 AB's. Amazing ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would only need another 3737 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 34 he would only need to average 468 AB's per season. Very possible providing he maintains his current ratio. That said my personal thoughts are it's a little too soon to tell. I'll hold off of making a prediction on Howard until after the season.

Sockeye

05-05-2007, 12:17 PM

Justin Morneau

85 career home runs in 1582 at-bats at the age of 25 (26 in may). 1 HR every 18.6 AB's. Very good ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 5677 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would need to average 474 AB's per season. Very possible providing he stays healthy, productive, and plays til at least age 37. That said my personal thoughts are it's a little too soon to tell. I'll hold off of making a prediction on Morneau until after the season.

Sockeye

05-06-2007, 08:30 AM

Jim Edmonds

351 career home runs in 5987 at-bats at the age of 36 (37 in june). 1 HR every 17.1 AB's. Great ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 836 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 39 he would only need to average 279 AB's per season. Even on the decline that number should be well within reach. Although his ratio has declined over the past 2 seasons. (20 HR in 430 AB's) 1 HR every 21.5 AB's. At that pace he will need another 1054 AB's or 352 AB's per season while playing til age 39. He'll need to average 16.7 homers per year for the next 3 years to reach 400. He's averaged 28.8 homers per season in his last 12 seasons. So providing he stays at least some what productive, and can last until age 39 he'll have a great chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-08-2007, 01:49 PM

Derrek Lee

218 career home runs in 4374 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 20.1 AB's. Solid ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3652 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 39 he would need to average 457 AB's per season A number he has surpassed 6 of the past 7 seasons so that should be well within reason. He'll need to average 22.8 homers per year for the next 8 years to reach 400. He's averaged 27.6 homers per season in his last 7 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until age 39 he'll have a great chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-09-2007, 03:58 PM

Carlos Lee

227 career home runs in 4695 at-bats at the age of 30 (31 in june). 1 HR every 20.7 AB's. Solid ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3579 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 38 he would need to average 448 AB's per season A number he has surpassed in all 8 of his seasons so that should be easily within reason. He'll need to average 22.4 homers per year for the next 8 years to reach 400. He's averaged 27.6 homers per season in his first 8 seasons (32.8 in his past 4 seasons) So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until age 38 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

natsnsoxfan

05-09-2007, 04:24 PM

do Eric Chavez or David Ortiz next, please

Sockeye

05-10-2007, 01:39 PM

Eric Chavez

215 career home runs in 4342 at-bats at the age of 29. 1 HR every 20.2 AB's. Solid ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3737 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 36 he would need to average 468 AB's per season A number he has surpassed in his last 7 of his seasons so that should be easily within reason. He'll need to average 23.5 homers per year for the next 8 years to reach 400. He's averaged 28.4 homers per season in his past 7 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 36 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-12-2007, 06:59 AM

Alfonso Soriano

212 career home runs in 4019 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 19.0 AB's. Very Good ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3565 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would only need to average 509 AB's per season A number he has far surpassed in his last 6 of his seasons so that should be easily within reason. He'll need to average 27.5 homers per year for the next 7 years to reach 400. He's averaged 37.4 homers per season in his past 5 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs. For the record I meant to vote for Soriano but by mistake did not.

Sockeye

05-13-2007, 09:30 AM

Jason Giambi

355 career home runs in 5731 at-bats at the age of 36. 1 HR every 16.1 AB's. Great ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 727 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would only need to average 364 AB's per season A very easy number to reach. He'll need to average 25.0 homers per year for the next 2 years to reach 400. He's averaged 31.2 homers per season in his past 11 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-14-2007, 04:43 PM

Scott Rolen

255 career home runs in 5214 at-bats at the age of 32. 1 HR every 20.4 AB's. Solid ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2965 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 38 he would need to average 495 AB's per season. A number he has reached in 7 of his last 10 seasons so it is certainly possible. He'll need to average 24.5 homers per year for the next 6 years to reach 400. He's averaged 24.9 homers per season in his past 10 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 38 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-17-2007, 05:34 PM

Lance Berkman

230 career home runs in 3821 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 16.6 AB's. Great ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2825 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 36 he would only need to average 471 AB's per season. A number he has reached in 5 of his last 6 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 29.2 homers per year for the next 6 years to reach 400. He's averaged 33.3 homers per season in his past 6 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 36 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-20-2007, 07:34 AM

Carlos Beltran

211 career home runs in 4719 at-bats at the age of 30. 1 HR every 22.4 AB's. decent ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4227 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 38 he would need to average 507 AB's per season. A number he has reached in 7 of his last 8 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 21 homers per year for the next 9 years to reach 400. He's averaged 32.7 homers per season in his past 6 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 38 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

05-22-2007, 09:52 AM

Todd Helton

291 career home runs in 5258 at-bats at the age of 33 (34 in august). 1 HR every 18.1 AB's. Great ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1970 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 38 he would need to average 425 AB's per season. A number he has reached in his last 9 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 22.8 homers per year for the next 5 years to reach 400. He's averaged 31.2 homers per season in his past 9 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 38 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

utterchaos jr.

05-23-2007, 03:41 PM

SOCKEYE!

ARe you kidding?
I can't read those
30 messages! WOW~

utterchaos jr.

05-23-2007, 03:45 PM

I think a bunch of these guys will, but it's so hard to speculate for some of them this early in their careers. Also, soon 400 HRs will an almost meaningless number, like 2000 Hits.

It will never be meaningless

only 41 members have made it in the 400 club out of the 140 years of baseball!
It's only 100 from the 'real record' (500)
Not that much players make it there!
I'd be proud if I were a ballplayer and got 400 homeruns

Sockeye

05-25-2007, 07:11 AM

Shawn Green

323 career home runs in 6801 at-bats at the age of 34. 1 HR every 21.1 AB's. Solid ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1622 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would need to average 447 AB's per season. A number he has reached in his last 9 seasons so it is extremely possible. He'll need to average 20.5 homers per year for the next 4 years to reach 400. He's averaged 31.2 homers per season in his past 9 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

utterchaos jr.

05-25-2007, 02:10 PM

:laugh Does anybody know how much time Sockeye has on him to do research and averages on more than 30 players?
LOL

Sockeye

05-25-2007, 09:59 PM

:laugh Does anybody know how much time Sockeye has on him to do research and averages on more than 30 players?
LOL

LOL Actually my profession requires research in this exact area. The more accurate my research is the more money I make. So it is something I pay very close attention to.

John Shoemaker

05-25-2007, 10:43 PM

LOL Actually my profession requires research in this exact area. The more accurate my research is the more money I make. So it is something I pay very close attention to.

You're doing a wonderful job. I love reading the information you post.

Sockeye

05-31-2007, 05:44 PM

David Ortiz

240 career home runs in 3844 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 16.0 AB's. Great ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2563 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would need to average 457 AB's per season. A pretty reasonable number so it is extremely possible. He'll need to average 28.2 homers per year for the next 6 years to reach 400. He's averaged 43.3 homers per season in his past 4 seasons or since going to Boston. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-03-2007, 07:44 AM

Richie Sexson

281 career home runs in 4390 at-bats at the age of 32. 1 HR every 15.6 AB's. Great ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1860 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 36 he would only need to average 408 AB's per season. A number he has reached in 7 of his past 8 seasons so it is extremely likely. He'll need to average 25.4 homers per year for the next 5 years to reach 400. He's averaged 32.8 homers per season in his past 8 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 36 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-05-2007, 06:42 AM

Miguel Tejada

246 career home runs in 5769 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 23.5 AB's. Fair ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3612 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would need to average 549 AB's per season. A number he has reached in his last 8 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 22.9 homers per year for the next 7 years to reach 400. He's averaged 28.4 homers per season in his past 8 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-07-2007, 07:06 AM

Paul Konerko

253 career home runs in 4759 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 18.8 AB's. Good ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2766 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 36 he would need to average 494 AB's per season. A number he has reached in 7 of his his last 8 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 25.8 homers per year for the next 6 years to reach 400. He's averaged 29.8 homers per season in his past 8 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 36 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-10-2007, 06:07 PM

Aramis Ramirez

209 career home runs in 4108 at-bats at the age of 28 (29 this month). 1 HR every 19.7 AB's. Good ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 3755 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 36 he would need to average 496 AB's per season. A number he has reached in 5 of his last 6 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 25.5 homers per year for the next 8 years to reach 400. He's averaged 30.7 homers per season in his past 6 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 36 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-13-2007, 07:33 AM

Adrian Beltre

200 career home runs in 4899 at-bats at the age of 28. 1 HR every 24.5 AB's. Fair ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4899 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would need to average 512 AB's per season. A number he has well surpassed in each of his last 5 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 20.9 homers per year for the next 10 years to reach 400. He's averaged 27.2 homers per season in his past 5 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-14-2007, 03:01 PM

Chipper Jones

369 career home runs in 6549 at-bats at the age of 35. 1 HR every 17.7 AB's. Great ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 551 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 37 he would need to average 358 AB's per season. A number he has well reached in each of his last 12 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 21.5 homers per year for the next 2 years to reach 400. He's averaged 29.8 homers per season in his past 12 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 37 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-17-2007, 01:23 PM

Mark Teixeira

152 career home runs in 2568 at-bats at the age of 27. 1 HR every 16.9 AB's. Great ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 4190 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 35 he would need to average 491 AB's per season. A number he has well reached in each of his 4 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 28.9 homers per year for the next 9 years to reach 400. He's averaged 35.0 homers per season in his first 4 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 35 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-24-2007, 02:54 PM

Troy Glaus

268 career home runs in 4216 at-bats at the age of 30. 1 HR every 15.7 AB's. Fantastic ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2077 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 35 he would need to average 451 AB's per season. A number he has well reached in 6 of his last 8 seasons so it is extremely likely. He'll need to average 28.6 homers per year for the next 5 years to reach 400. He's averaged 32.0 homers per season in his past 8 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 35 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-28-2007, 09:29 PM

Miguel Cabrera

121 career home runs in 2390 at-bats at the age of 24. 1 HR every 19.8 AB's. Great ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 5511 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he plays til age 35 he would need to average 483 AB's per season. A number he has surpassed in his past 3 seasons so it is very possible. He'll need to average 24.7 homers per year for the next 12 years to reach 400. He's averaged 30.7 homers per season in his past 3 seasons. And at age 24 he has yet to reach him prime. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 35 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

06-30-2007, 09:54 PM

Adam Dunn

221 career home runs in 3113 at-bats at the age of 27. 1 HR every 14.1 AB's. Fantastic ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 2522 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he only plays til age 32 he would only need to average 468 AB's per season. A number he has well surpassed in 4 of his last 5 seasons so it is extremely likely. He'll need to average 33.7 homers per year for the next 6 years to reach 400. He's averaged 35.8 homers per season in his past 5 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 32 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

07-02-2007, 07:11 AM

Vladimir Guerrero

352 career home runs in 5789 at-bats at the age of 31. 1 HR every 16.4 AB's. Fantastic ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 790 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he only plays til age 32 he would only need to average 539 AB's per season. A number he has surpassed in 7 of his last 9 seasons so it is extremely likely. He'll need to average 31.0 homers per year for the next 2 years to reach 400. He's averaged 36.2 homers per season in his past 9 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 32 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

07-03-2007, 08:48 PM

Andruw Jones

355 career home runs in 6137 at-bats at the age of 30. 1 HR every 17.3 AB's. Great ratio. Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 778 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he only plays til age 31 he would only need to average 540 AB's per season. A number he has surpassed in his last 9 seasons so it is extremely likely. He'll need to average 29.0 homers per year for the next 2 years to reach 400. He's averaged 35.4 homers per season in his past 9 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 31 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.

Sockeye

07-06-2007, 09:37 AM

Albert Pujols

266 career home runs in 3787 at-bats at the age of 27. 1 HR every 14.2 AB's. Fantastic ratio! Keeping with that current ratio he would need another 1908 at-bats in his career to reach 400 home runs. If he only plays til age 30 he would only need to average 552 AB's per season. A number he has surpassed in 5 of his past 6 seasons so it is extremely likely. He'll need to average 37.5 homers per year for the next 4 years to reach 400. He's averaged 41.7 homers per season in his past 6 seasons. So providing he stays healthy, productive, and can last until at least age 30 he'll have an excellent chance at 400 career home runs.