Felix Hernandez

[ChrisLDuncan]

After last night's one hit SHO how many Cy Youngs do you think this kid will win I'll put the over/under at four...please discuss.

[nerfan]

2 maybe. Possibly 3.

[natsnsoxfan]

i think 4 but pushing wasn't an option so i went under at 3. I think that there are just too many other Cy Young quality pitchers in the AL, Scott Kazmir, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Ervin Santana, Dice-K, Justin Verlander, and Rich Harden, just to name a few with plenty more to come.

[Red Sox Rule]

Probably under 4. Maybe 2 or 3.

[plask_stirlac]

Wow, that's a lot of weight on this year's two starts.

Bob Gibson has 2 CYA, Pedro 3. I'll say under.

1.5 might be interesting.

[iPod]

I'm not sure if this is meant to be a joke or not. Nevermind the fact that he's competing with Johan Santana for Cy Youngs, let's look at how some other great, great pitchers have done in Cy Young voting...

Just off the top of my head
Curt Schilling: 0
Jason Schmidt: 0
Mariano Rivera: 0
Mike Mussina: 0
Tim Hudson: 0
Mark Mulder: 0
Kevin Brown: 0
Roy Oswalt: 0
Andy Pettitte: 0

Let's all step away from the ESPN tunnel vision for a second, OK?

[-Kyle-]

No bias in youre vote, right Seattle1? ;) :laugh

[Seattle1]

I said Over just to be optimistic, but it's such a crap shoot this early in his career. Who knows what kind of longetivity he's going to have. What if he has a career ending injury in five years? What if he becomes a druggie like Doc Gooden and ruins his career? You never can tell.

But, I am of course hoping he pitches for 25 years, all with the Mariners, wins 7 Cy Youngs, ends up close to 400 wins, and breaks the all-time strikeout record.

:D

[-Kyle-]

I said Over just to be optimistic, but it's such a crap shoot this early in his career. Who knows what kind of longetivity he's going to have. What if he has a career ending injury in five years? What if he becomes a druggie like Doc Gooden and ruins his career? You never can tell.

But, I am of course hoping he pitches for 25 years, all with the Mariners, wins 7 Cy Youngs, ends up close to 400 wins, and breaks the all-time strikeout record.

:D

Nothing wrong with a little bit of faith, I'd like to see it too because I was too young to see Pedro's prime. :(

[plask_stirlac]

More Cy Youngs: Peavy or Hernandez?

[natsnsoxfan]

Hernandez. Younger, better (i think anyways), and doesn't have as many great pitchers in his league. Given that he does have THE best in Johan Santana but theres more great pitchers in the NL than the AL i think.

[STLCards2]

I agree withthe previous posters. There are a zillion possible things that can prevent a guy from winning 4 Cy Youngs: injuries, competing in the same league with other great pitchers, drugs, being stuck with poor offensive teams with little exposure, or just not being good enough. These are just a few. There is not a pitcher on earth I would ever have predicted would go on to win 4 Cy Youngs when they just started. Only 4 pitchers have done it: Carlton, Maddux, Clemens, and Johnson. Heck, not that many even have 2 or 3: Koufax, Gibson, Pedro, Glavine, Perry, Santana, Palmer, Seaver, Saberhagen, McClain, maybe a few others. I am sure everybody though Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would have garages full of awards now. Things happen in baseball. There is nothing to indicate Hernadez or anybody else with no Cy Youngs right now will likely get 4. That doesn't mean he won't, of course.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I agree withthe previous posters. There are a zillion possible things that can prevent a guy from winning 4 Cy Youngs: injuries, competing in the same league with other great pitchers, drugs, being stuck with poor offensive teams with little exposure, or just not being good enough. These are just a few. There is not a pitcher on earth I would ever have predicted would go on to win 4 Cy Youngs when they just started. Only 4 pitchers have done it: Carlton, Maddux, Clemens, and Johnson. Heck, not that many even have 2 or 3: Koufax, Gibson, Pedro, Glavine, Perry, Santana, Palmer, Seaver, Saberhagen, McClain, maybe a few others. I am sure everybody though Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would have garages full of awards now. Things happen in baseball. There is nothing to indicate Hernadez or anybody else with no Cy Youngs right now will likely get 4. That doesn't mean he won't, of course.

What has happened to Mark Prior is so puzzling. He was so highly touted out of college, flew through the minors, and had a wonderful first full season. I kept reading how Prior had perfect pitching mechanics and pitched 96 mph so effortlessly. What happened?

[Westlake]

More Cy Youngs: Peavy or Hernandez?

That's a toss up. I think its whoever ends up being injured less. All being said they could both end up with zero.

[Brooklyn]

I agree with the general sentiment here. I think he'll be good, and have a very good career. Bu 4 Cy Youngs is "best of the best". That is a lot of expectations for someone so young.

Here is a list of all players that have had more than 4 Cy Youngs: Clemens and Randy Johnson. To predict he will be in that class is pretty bold. Even lowering to 4 only adds Carlton and Maddux.

Great, Great pitchers have not had 4 Cy Youngs. I'd put the odds on Santana getting more than 4 as pretty good, but that is only because he alrady has 2, and that is certainly not a sure thing.

[Colorado Express]

There are a lot of good young pitchers, so I'm going with 3 or fewer.

[plask_stirlac]

What has happened to Mark Prior is so puzzling. He was so highly touted out of college, flew through the minors, and had a wonderful first full season. I kept reading how Prior had perfect pitching mechanics and pitched 96 mph so effortlessly. What happened?

Apparently perfect mechanics GUARANTEE nothing. He collided with Marcus Giles and was drilled by a liner, in addition to various pitching injuries, and 2006 was a wash.

It's kind of like Roy Halladay but more dramatic since he didn't rebound yet.

[KCGHOST]

Asking any young pitcher to achieve greatness is asking a lot. The whole health thing is a bear. And if you get stuck behind a mega-stud (see Curt Schilling & Randy Johnson) you can be a pitcher worthy of CYA's and not get any due to another pitchers greatness.

[Cubsfan97]

Injuries really got to Wood and Prior. Makes me sick to watch too. I hate pitchers who have a good stretch of HOF material, then go back to Earth, but are still treated as Cy Young. Look at Eric Gagne, had a few years in which he looked HOF, now he hurt every year and people still say, well Eric Gagne will make HOF, he will be great next year. Adrian Beltre, one good year, now everyone thinks hes a HOFer. Makes me sick, and they make tens of millions off of it.

[Rennie Stennett]

I took the under. This is a tough one to pick. I'm rootin' for Hernandez all the way. The M's have another kid that can throw: Brandon Morrow drafted out of CAL.

http://calbears.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/morrow_brandon00.html

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2006/tracker/search.jsp?sc=lastName&sp=M&pg=5

[Mariano_Rivera]

Under

I wouldn't be surprised if he won 4 or more though

[rockin500]

Apparently perfect mechanics GUARANTEE nothing. He collided with Marcus Giles and was drilled by a liner, in addition to various pitching injuries, and 2006 was a wash.

It's kind of like Roy Halladay but more dramatic since he didn't rebound yet.
the collision with giles certainly started the change from his very good mechanics. his lower body was still doing the right things, but the arm was too close to his head after that. Mike Marshall thinks its got much to do with his looping motion when he throws. too much stress on the shoulder area.

he hasnt had good upper body mechanics in quite awhile now.

as for the poll question, felix has the stuff to win a cy young. how many is anyones guess as there are just too many variables.

[digglahhh]

Don't quit your day job to become an oddsmaker.

I think the smart money is on zero to one.

That is not to say that he won't go on to have great career. But 2 CYAs, let alone four, is already a HUGE accomplishment.

[iPod]

That's sort of what I'm saying. One odd thing about this era of baseball is that, in spite of the fact that information is cheaper now than ever about how players rank up against each other, the writers seem more willing to give awards to the same player over and over. Of the four pitchers to win 4 or more Cy Youngs, three are active players. Still, who are those three active players? Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Greg Maddux. How confident can you really be that Felix Hernandez will definitely be better than, say, Mike Mussina or John Smoltz?

[poopynumnum]

Felix... NO DUH!

[poopynumnum]

More Cy Youngs: Peavy or Hernandez?

No...
No...
and NO!
The real question should be, which pitching is better Padres or Mariners!

[rdonahue]

A more interesting question of over/under....1 CYA?
My guess is still under. I don't see what the big deal is with this guy. Yeah, he's really young and has flashes of brilliance, but he's never been consistently great. He'll have a great game one day but be mediocre at best for several starts after that. This year (at least so far) he's on a pretty good team yet he's still at just .500 (4-4) and his ERA+ is below 100 (97).

[STLCards2]

A more interesting question of over/under....1 CYA?
My guess is still under. I don't see what the big deal is with this guy. Yeah, he's really young and has flashes of brilliance, but he's never been consistently great. He'll have a great game one day but be mediocre at best for several starts after that. This year (at least so far) he's on a pretty good team yet he's still at just .500 (4-4) and his ERA+ is below 100 (97).

In fairness, some guys (like Maddux and Glavine) took several poor years before they put it all together. Red Ruffing was one of the worst regular starting pitchers in the ALfor 8 years before he started what would be a HOF career. I guess the same could happen for Hernandez, but as the general consensus has been, it would be nice to see some of that potential materialize before we award him 6-7 Cy Youngs!:laugh

As to Peavy vs. Hernandez - since Peavy is about to go 1-up on Felix, I would give him the advantage now. (Don't forget, with a better offense around him, Peavy could have been in contention for the '05 Cy too.)

[Blackout]

he won't win one.