Dalkowski110
04-12-2007, 12:40 AM
Today, Oliver Perez was clearly not at his best. One may think that we're seeing the 2003 and 2005-2006 Oliver Perez. We're not. Oh, he was wild alright, but he was a different kind of wild. The 2003-2006 (2004 excluded) Oliver Perez falls into a pitcher's category I like to call the Dick Weik Family (Clarence Marshall and Jerry Stephenson are also members of this group).
Dick Weik was perhaps the hardest-throwing Major League pitcher in history (even teammate and flamethrower Bob Feller thought so; not to mention those that caught him!), but gave up a ton of hits and a ton of homeruns because after walking a bunch of guys, he'd get frustrated and groove the pitch (much like Perez would do). He also posessed an ineffective curveball, which he would try and throw for strikes. While Weik was more accurate with his curve, it was also flat as a pancake. Similarly, Oliver Perez resorted to a now-discarded curve and a changeup he also no longer throws which he had better control over.
Flash forward to 2006. Oliver Perez discarded his ineffective pitches. He hasn't had this good a spring since 2004, the one year he did well. If Perez works out and this was simply a bad game (which is probable...you generally can't turn around 100% and go from zero to hero...he may have a few bumps on the way), he could very well join the Sandy Koufax Family of pitchers...also in this family of pitchers are hard-throwers Nolan Ryan and Sudden Sam McDowell. These guys generally threw for 5 or 6 years before they could establish themselves as consistent. While I tend to think Perez falls into this category, I did mention the worst-case scenario in my opening paragraph. What if he stays inconsistent, but repeats his same mistakes in his bad outings?
Simply put, there are VERY few pitchers like that. To be able to strike out two and walk seven in 2 2/3 innings while only giving up one hit...a weakly hit single...is a rarer stat line than you may think. Sudden Sam McDowell posted a literally identical stat line in September 1962 against Kansas City, but he turned into something (even if a torn rotator cuff ended his career). Harry Fanok and Jim Rittwage on a Major League level and Steve Dalkowski on a Minor League level all blew hitters away, gave up very few hits, and K'ed a ton and walked a ton to the point where it hurt their careers. If Perez regresses, he would almost certainly fall into this rare category. His pitches were all effective enough to limit the amount of hits he gave up in his most recent outing, but not effective enough to get into the strike zone. However, as previously noted, there are very few pitchers that actually settle into this category.
Because of his low H/9 ratio, I'm going to say that right now, he projects as a Sudden Sam McDowell sans injuries. McDowell's repeated inability to find a groove and radical inconsistency gradually lessened after he simply repeated what he was doing correctly enough times that he simply figured himself out. Perez is in the process of doing this, IMO.
Sorry for the long post. Hope somebody was interested in it. ;)
Dick Weik was perhaps the hardest-throwing Major League pitcher in history (even teammate and flamethrower Bob Feller thought so; not to mention those that caught him!), but gave up a ton of hits and a ton of homeruns because after walking a bunch of guys, he'd get frustrated and groove the pitch (much like Perez would do). He also posessed an ineffective curveball, which he would try and throw for strikes. While Weik was more accurate with his curve, it was also flat as a pancake. Similarly, Oliver Perez resorted to a now-discarded curve and a changeup he also no longer throws which he had better control over.
Flash forward to 2006. Oliver Perez discarded his ineffective pitches. He hasn't had this good a spring since 2004, the one year he did well. If Perez works out and this was simply a bad game (which is probable...you generally can't turn around 100% and go from zero to hero...he may have a few bumps on the way), he could very well join the Sandy Koufax Family of pitchers...also in this family of pitchers are hard-throwers Nolan Ryan and Sudden Sam McDowell. These guys generally threw for 5 or 6 years before they could establish themselves as consistent. While I tend to think Perez falls into this category, I did mention the worst-case scenario in my opening paragraph. What if he stays inconsistent, but repeats his same mistakes in his bad outings?
Simply put, there are VERY few pitchers like that. To be able to strike out two and walk seven in 2 2/3 innings while only giving up one hit...a weakly hit single...is a rarer stat line than you may think. Sudden Sam McDowell posted a literally identical stat line in September 1962 against Kansas City, but he turned into something (even if a torn rotator cuff ended his career). Harry Fanok and Jim Rittwage on a Major League level and Steve Dalkowski on a Minor League level all blew hitters away, gave up very few hits, and K'ed a ton and walked a ton to the point where it hurt their careers. If Perez regresses, he would almost certainly fall into this rare category. His pitches were all effective enough to limit the amount of hits he gave up in his most recent outing, but not effective enough to get into the strike zone. However, as previously noted, there are very few pitchers that actually settle into this category.
Because of his low H/9 ratio, I'm going to say that right now, he projects as a Sudden Sam McDowell sans injuries. McDowell's repeated inability to find a groove and radical inconsistency gradually lessened after he simply repeated what he was doing correctly enough times that he simply figured himself out. Perez is in the process of doing this, IMO.
Sorry for the long post. Hope somebody was interested in it. ;)